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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropp

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited June 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Survation finds CON to LAB swing of 7.3% with the LDs dropping to just 2% in four key commuter-belt marginals

One thing’s already established for GE15. We are going to see far more different polling types than anything that has been experienced before at a British general election. We are also seeing a wider range of funders like today’s Survation poll in four key London commuter belt marginals which was commissioned by the RMT union.

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Comments

  • redcliffe62redcliffe62 Posts: 342
    This is exactly what is happening.

    To avoid a wipe out Tories have to do a deal with UKIP in some form or another. Anything over 5% UKIP is an election loss and 19% for UKIP is a 300 seat battering for the Tories.

    Watch that referendum promise be fast tracked before May just as soon as Scots indy is out of the way....
  • Bringing the proposed referendum date forward would look like panic surely?
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Bringing the proposed referendum date forward would look like panic surely?

    If the Conservatives aren't panicking, they should be. Once UKIP elect some MPs they diminish their 'wasted vote' handicap.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    edited June 2014
    May 2014 local election results.

    Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
    Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
    Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
    Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    Bringing the proposed referendum date forward would look like panic surely?

    How far forward? Before or on election day horrible, splits the party. After election makes no difference, except for showing everyone that Cameron's "renegotiation" policy was always bullshit.

    Maybe some mileage in amending the referendum bill to bring it forward, as this looks eurosceptic while in fact definitively killing the bill by neutralizing the Parliament Act.
  • JohnLoonyJohnLoony Posts: 1,790
    The word "subsample" seems to be standing in the corner of the room jumping up and down like an excited puppy trying to be noticed. What is the size of the sample for each of the four constituencies? With the local election percentages as given two comments ago, it may be misleading to combine the four constituencies together in a joint poll, rather than publishing them separately.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 21,704
    Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2014
    Let's be generous and proffer to PBers that these Survation polls are less than useless. The unweighted sample size in each constituency was :

    Milton Keynes South - 226
    Crawley - 230
    Reading West - 234
    Stevenage - 225

    The MoE of such polls is only slightly smaller than Eric Pickles gargantuan waistline. We may at least thank Survation for reminding us all that microscopic sample sizes are as much use as an English Cricket, Football .... (insert sport as required) team.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RMT-Rail-Ownership-Poll-Tables.pdf
  • AlanbrookeAlanbrooke Posts: 25,514
    Jonathan said:

    Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.

    What politician in their right mind would want Crawley ? If Labour run the council the only sensible thing to do is call in the bulldozers and start again from scratch.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projection Countdowns :

    2 hours
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I see that Shadsy has Labour at 7/2 to take Reading West. The local results may support this poll to suggest some value.

    It also seems to be the one of these seats that is least kipper. Is there any reason for this?

    Not only is this poll bad for LDs and Tories; it is bad for kippers too. There are no seats for you here in Milliband territory.

    May 2014 local election results.

    Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
    Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
    Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
    Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/

  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,947
    No no no. Don't be silly. Cameron had a bigger lead? Ed is Carp? We know kippers think Dave is carp and won't vote for him but let's pretend that isn't true? The economy is fixed? UKIP voters want a referendum so will vote Tory? Kippers are all Tory and will come home, except for the Labour ones who won't? Errrr Gordon Brown was EVIL therefore Labour can't win again ever ever? No, got it. UNS says that in an election where the main parties are no longer nationally spread and national percentage shares don't mean a lot we can ignore this, take the national polls, transfer the UKIP score to Tory (and some Labour score to UKIP as kippers go home unless they're Labour in which case reverse it), apply UNS from before we had UKIP skewing the figures and there you are - TORY MAJORITY NAILED ON.

    Anyone who disagrees with our flawless logic is a leftie fruitcake or delusional or clutching at straws like pointless key marginals polls and national polls and eventually the general election result itself showing Labour winning. And anyway, Ed can't eat a sandwich, so he can't be allowed to win so we've decreed he won't.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Good morning all and given how accurate Survation polls tend to be, the Tories should be encouraged that they are only 4% behind Labour. Now if this was an ICM poll that would be different.

    Roll on the ARSE for a real poll which matters!
  • MillsyMillsy Posts: 900
    JackW said:

    Let's be generous and proffer to PBers that these Survation polls are less than useless. The unweighted sample size in each constituency was :

    Milton Keynes South - 226
    Crawley - 230
    Reading West - 234
    Stevenage - 225

    The MoE of such polls is only slightly smaller than Eric Pickles gargantuan waistline. We may at least thank Survation for reminding us all that microscopic sample sizes are as much use as an English Cricket, Football .... (insert sport as required) team.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RMT-Rail-Ownership-Poll-Tables.pdf

    Sample size aside these are the percentages for the individual seats, which is admittedly just as useless as a 4-seat aggregate:

    MK South: C 38%, L 34%, Ukip 20%, LD 4%
    Crawley: C 39%, L 39%, Ukip 16%, LD 0%
    R West: C 32%, L 44%, Ukip 13%, LD 2%
    Steve: C 25%, L 38%, Ukip 27%, LD 3%

    But I guess the RMT had other reasons for the poll than VI for politics geeks.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915

    No no no. Don't be silly. Cameron had a bigger lead? Ed is Carp? We know kippers think Dave is carp and won't vote for him but let's pretend that isn't true? The economy is fixed? UKIP voters want a referendum so will vote Tory? Kippers are all Tory and will come home, except for the Labour ones who won't? Errrr Gordon Brown was EVIL therefore Labour can't win again ever ever? No, got it. UNS says that in an election where the main parties are no longer nationally spread and national percentage shares don't mean a lot we can ignore this, take the national polls, transfer the UKIP score to Tory (and some Labour score to UKIP as kippers go home unless they're Labour in which case reverse it), apply UNS from before we had UKIP skewing the figures and there you are - TORY MAJORITY NAILED ON.

    Anyone who disagrees with our flawless logic is a leftie fruitcake or delusional or clutching at straws like pointless key marginals polls and national polls and eventually the general election result itself showing Labour winning. And anyway, Ed can't eat a sandwich, so he can't be allowed to win so we've decreed he won't.

    Rochdale, have you defected to the Kippers? You said Dave is carp and Ed is carp. However carp is not a fish used to make kippers is it?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Very sound advise from @Easterross.

    "Smiles"
  • Blue_rogBlue_rog Posts: 2,019

    No no no. Don't be silly. Cameron had a bigger lead? Ed is Carp? We know kippers think Dave is carp and won't vote for him but let's pretend that isn't true? The economy is fixed? UKIP voters want a referendum so will vote Tory? Kippers are all Tory and will come home, except for the Labour ones who won't? Errrr Gordon Brown was EVIL therefore Labour can't win again ever ever? No, got it. UNS says that in an election where the main parties are no longer nationally spread and national percentage shares don't mean a lot we can ignore this, take the national polls, transfer the UKIP score to Tory (and some Labour score to UKIP as kippers go home unless they're Labour in which case reverse it), apply UNS from before we had UKIP skewing the figures and there you are - TORY MAJORITY NAILED ON.

    Anyone who disagrees with our flawless logic is a leftie fruitcake or delusional or clutching at straws like pointless key marginals polls and national polls and eventually the general election result itself showing Labour winning. And anyway, Ed can't eat a sandwich, so he can't be allowed to win so we've decreed he won't.

    Rochdale, have you defected to the Kippers? You said Dave is carp and Ed is carp. However carp is not a fish used to make kippers is it?
    You need (red) herrings to make kippers. Perhaps that could be the new symbol for the party. :-)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.

    The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.

    The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.

    UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.

    So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.

    I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 33,697

    Jonathan said:

    Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.

    What politician in their right mind would want Crawley ? If Labour run the council the only sensible thing to do is call in the bulldozers and start again from scratch.
    Politician in their right mind! Some sort of oxymoron?

    More seriously doesn’t the 2% (or similar) LD share underline the probability of substantially higher shares elsewhere?
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    Millsy said:

    JackW said:

    Let's be generous and proffer to PBers that these Survation polls are less than useless. The unweighted sample size in each constituency was :

    Milton Keynes South - 226
    Crawley - 230
    Reading West - 234
    Stevenage - 225

    The MoE of such polls is only slightly smaller than Eric Pickles gargantuan waistline. We may at least thank Survation for reminding us all that microscopic sample sizes are as much use as an English Cricket, Football .... (insert sport as required) team.

    http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RMT-Rail-Ownership-Poll-Tables.pdf

    Sample size aside these are the percentages for the individual seats, which is admittedly just as useless as a 4-seat aggregate:

    MK South: C 38%, L 34%, Ukip 20%, LD 4%
    Crawley: C 39%, L 39%, Ukip 16%, LD 0%
    R West: C 32%, L 44%, Ukip 13%, LD 2%
    Steve: C 25%, L 38%, Ukip 27%, LD 3%

    But I guess the RMT had other reasons for the poll than VI for politics geeks.
    Clearly Survation is reluctant to turn away business but to poll fewer than 250 voters in each of these constituencies is bonkers.

    May I also advise PBers that the 0% LibDem score in Crawley is entirely unrelated to any shortage of Scottish LibDems in the Auchentennach vicinity or the "Visit Scotland" publicity campaign run in "LibDem Focus" in parts of Sussex and sponsored by a senior figure in the said Auchentennach community ....

  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    Lord Ashcroft has conducted two polls of Labour/Conservative marginals and ComRes have conducted one. In those three polls, the Lib Dems tallied 8% on all three occasions. This poll is the odd one out.

    It may, of course, be the correct one.
  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    DavidL said:

    The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.

    The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.

    The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.

    UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.

    So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.

    I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.

    You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Jonathan said:

    Labour are certainly doing well in Crawley. A strong, well organised CLP that has just won control of the council. Wouldn't be surprised if they took the seat.

    What politician in their right mind would want Crawley ? If Labour run the council the only sensible thing to do is call in the bulldozers and start again from scratch.
    Politician in their right mind! Some sort of oxymoron?

    More seriously doesn’t the 2% (or similar) LD share underline the probability of substantially higher shares elsewhere?
    Yes and it also suggests more pessimism is required in the lost deposit market.

  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    This poll is also in line with the local results, so dismissing it out of hand is rather harsh. When it comes down to individual seats it is hard to see Tory gains and not hard to find ones that look like going Labour.

    Much as I admire Jacks ARSE, it look as if the only thing likely to prevent Ed being PM is if he was crushed in a freak pie accident perpetrated by Scots nobility.
    DavidL said:

    The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.

    The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.

    The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.

    UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.

    So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.

    I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.

    The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.

    The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.

    UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.

    So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.

    I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.

    You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...

    No, I am simply pointing out that this is not necessarily a rogue poll wildly out of line with everyone else despite the laughable sample sizes. It is not that different from many of the polls we have seen recently, it has just applied those numbers to certain constituencies.

    So far as the campaign is concerned I don't really recall it having a big effect other than for the Lib Dems with the Cleggasm which turned out to be a bit of a damp squib with the vote up only slightly and the seats down.

    I do expect the Lib Dem vote to recover somewhat although I am becoming more pessimistic about the extent of that and I expect the Kipper vote to fall a chunk with some benefit to the tories. I just don't see this being enough to stop Labour from being the largest party.

  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    This poll is also in line with the local results, so dismissing it out of hand is rather harsh. When it comes down to individual seats it is hard to see Tory gains and not hard to find ones that look like going Labour.

    Much as I admire Jacks ARSE, it look as if the only thing likely to prevent Ed being PM is if he was crushed in a freak pie accident perpetrated by Scots nobility.

    DavidL said:

    The Labour vote is up 5.9% in this poll on 2010. Applying that to their national polling gets them up to about 35% which seems in line with most of the polling at the moment.

    The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.

    The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.

    UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.

    So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.

    I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.

    "Freak pie accident" you say .... Hhmmm .... accident ?!? .... Hhmmm

    I'll give it some consideration ....

  • Innocent_AbroadInnocent_Abroad Posts: 3,294
    edited June 2014
    [DavidL 8.06am] I have no doubt that an election to-morrow would produce the result you describe. I also expect the campaign to benefit the Tories considerably and to do the Lib Dems no harm at least. Labour may very well not poll much more than they did last time and even lose seats such as Grimsby where UKIP attract working-class voters and a long-serving popular MP is standing down. Expect the Tory campaign to focus on Cameron and Ed M and to say little or nothing on policy (voters don't believe policy promises anyway).
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    I see that Shadsy has Labour at 7/2 to take Reading West. The local results may support this poll to suggest some value.

    It also seems to be the one of these seats that is least kipper. Is there any reason for this?

    Not only is this poll bad for LDs and Tories; it is bad for kippers too. There are no seats for you here in Milliband territory.



    May 2014 local election results.

    Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
    Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
    Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
    Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/

    I think 2014 was the first time UKIP had made any attempt in the local elections here. In years past they have stood candidates in one or two wards, but this year they had almost a full slate (in the Reading Council area).

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/readingwest/

    http://www.reading.gov.uk/elections/election/10/shareOfVote/
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    edited June 2014
    Latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections Countdown :

    31 minutes 31 seconds
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    On the impact of the last election campaign: if I'd placed no constituency bets at all during the election period, I would have been better off.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Nobody has been able to answer the transport analyst Christian Wolmar's poser: "what is franchising for?"

    There is an argument for allowing private companies to run publicly owned rail services in a concession, but franchising is an extremely expensive, convoluted way if running a railway that embeds privatised monopolies. London manages well with regulated, publicly owned transport. Crossrail is a public scheme. Lines that are in the public sector, such as East Coast, have performed well.

    High time for a rethink.
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    PB Tories questioning a poll we don't like....

    Patrick Wintour‏@patrickwintour·5 mins
    @patrickwintour fair points - suspicious of commissioned polls show that tell client that their issue will change how people vote.
  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Just wanted to check the accuracy of Survation. At EP2014 the difference it predicted between 1st and 3rd was 9%. It was 4th least accurate. The difference was actually 3.6% and ICM was closest.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    BJESUS prediction GE2015 - To be released at 8.50 every Tuesday till 5/5/15

    LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)

    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069
    I wonder if I should commission a poll of beds/bucks/herts leafy villages with my pending cricket winnings?

    1. IHT - good or bad?
    2. Ed Miliband - PM or not so much?
    3. Yellow peril - why oh why?
    4. Spurs - Champs League or bust?
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Poles four lettering the PM.
    Will it produce a 'he might be a twit, but he is OUR twit' bounce?
    Go sceptic, go hard, Dave
  • Scrapheap_as_wasScrapheap_as_was Posts: 10,069

    BJESUS prediction GE2015 - To be released at 8.50 every Tuesday till 5/5/15

    LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)

    BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
    Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer

    Are you accepting bets against these predictions? If so what odds that I say Labour gets less than 330 seats?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    PB Tories questioning a poll we don't like....

    Patrick Wintour‏@patrickwintour·5 mins
    @patrickwintour fair points - suspicious of commissioned polls show that tell client that their issue will change how people vote.

    I think you might be underestimating just how much opprobrium is reserved down here for the privatised train companies, whom commuters think need a grand kicking. One of the less discussed aspects is accountability - or lack of. When something goes wrong, as it regularly does, the various parties blame each other. If a line goes down completely, tickets are only sometimes transferable. The railways have ceased to be a public service - they are instead a fragmented money-making exercises where most of the profits come via compulsory tax payments, and where the travelling public are customers to be screwed rather than passengers to be served.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP

    Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?
  • John_MJohn_M Posts: 7,503
    BobaFett said:

    Nobody has been able to answer the transport analyst Christian Wolmar's poser: "what is franchising for?"

    There is an argument for allowing private companies to run publicly owned rail services in a concession, but franchising is an extremely expensive, convoluted way if running a railway that embeds privatised monopolies. London manages well with regulated, publicly owned transport. Crossrail is a public scheme. Lines that are in the public sector, such as East Coast, have performed well.

    High time for a rethink.

    Privatisation needn't be an ideology, though it clearly is for some. BT is an example of a 'good' privatisation, the rail network a 'bad' one.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    You can still get 10/11 on Labour most seats with Bet365 or the same price on Ed Miliband being Prime Minister at the next Queen's Speech with Ladbrokes.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 22,736
    The only bets I have are on Betfair where I have gone with Lab most seats quite a lot staked at 1.95(see this has now shortened to 1.88 and Lab overall maj considerably less at 3.3 in wishful thinking land.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    BobaFett said:

    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP

    Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?
    Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.

    The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Here comes the arse.....
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    In the fairly unlikely event that a hung Parliament made them relevant, the DUP's votes would be up for sale to the highest bidder. The Tories could expect no particular favours there.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787
    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 10th June Projection) :

    Con 312 (-3) .. Lab 274 (+3) .. LibDem 32 (+1) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - TCTC
    Pudsey - TCTC
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - TCTC
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC (From Likely Con Hold)
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
    Ochill and South Perthshire - TCTC

    Changes From 10th June - Enfield moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    antifrank said:

    In the fairly unlikely event that a hung Parliament made them relevant, the DUP's votes would be up for sale to the highest bidder. The Tories could expect no particular favours there.

    They could. There's a lot of common ground and Cam would pay the required price
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @John_M

    Agreed. Telecoms works better in the private sector -
    John_M said:

    BobaFett said:

    Nobody has been able to answer the transport analyst Christian Wolmar's poser: "what is franchising for?"

    There is an argument for allowing private companies to run publicly owned rail services in a concession, but franchising is an extremely expensive, convoluted way if running a railway that embeds privatised monopolies. London manages well with regulated, publicly owned transport. Crossrail is a public scheme. Lines that are in the public sector, such as East Coast, have performed well.

    High time for a rethink.

    Privatisation needn't be an ideology, though it clearly is for some. BT is an example of a 'good' privatisation, the rail network a 'bad' one.
    agreed. Telecoms works better in the private sector because there is genuine competition and the privatisation was well thought through. Rail, no. There is no or little competition on most lines and in a couple of cases (EC, Southeastern/Connex?) the government has simply had to take the lines back when a contractor has walked away. The UK isn't a banana republic and therefore the railway cannot be allowed to fail. Franchising is expensive, convoluted and - a generation on - the public still doesn't understand it. The subsidy is larger than it ever was under BR, which was the most efficient railway in Europe when it was privatised.

    BR should not be revived however. Instead, let the government bid for franchises as they come up and take them one by one at no cost. That our lines can currently be nationalised to France and Germany but not to the UK (except in extremis a la ECML) is risible.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP

    Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?
    Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.

    The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed
    Far right homophobes who would hold the Tories to ransom over public spending in NI. I'd avoid them like that plague.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)

    It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!

  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP

    Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?
    Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.

    The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed
    Far right homophobes who would hold the Tories to ransom over public spending in NI. I'd avoid them like that plague.
    He'd take s and c and run on a minority I'd guess, the throw baubles for any vote where they need some help.
    I think Tories just short is a very unlikely result though. If there is some sort of swing back if the economy really flies for the next few months or UKIP fizzle, I think it would push them through the glass ceiling on the back of a Lib Dempocalypse.
  • dyedwooliedyedwoolie Posts: 7,786
    BobaFett said:

    Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)

    It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!

    Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che Guevara

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,526
    BobaFett said:

    BobaFett said:

    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP

    Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?
    Anything over 315 would be an effective majority for Labour as they could rely on SDLP and probably any greens for most issues, but it would be a tough five year haul.

    The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed
    Far right homophobes who would hold the Tories to ransom over public spending in NI. I'd avoid them like that plague.
    As antifrank says, they'll sell themselves to the highest bidder. But if the Conservatives end up with 310-15 seats, they'll certainly buy DUP support.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789

    BobaFett said:

    Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)

    It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!

    Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che Guevara

    I think you might have some way to go ;-)

    What I cannot grasp is why thr government is inviting ire by attempting to re-privatise ECML in the late winter, just before the election. This is a gift to Labour. The service has been run very well in government hands and the move will be deeply unpopular and force the debate on to Labour's home turf.

    If the government really believes in franchising, why is it keeping the biggest railway build in Europe - Crossrail - in the public sector? Answer, because it knows, in its heart, that the railway, like the military, is best in the public sector. Because it's in London it's too dear to them to mess with and risk private sector cock ups.

    Telling.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,526

    This is exactly what is happening.

    To avoid a wipe out Tories have to do a deal with UKIP in some form or another. Anything over 5% UKIP is an election loss and 19% for UKIP is a 300 seat battering for the Tories.

    Watch that referendum promise be fast tracked before May just as soon as Scots indy is out of the way....

    UKIP are currently averaging 15%, and the Conservatives 32%. The Conservatives can probably hold onto largest party status if they can get UKIP down to 10%.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Commuters don't care if the trains are private or public as long as the service is good.

    Same as the NHS and schools.

  • philiphphiliph Posts: 4,704

    BobaFett said:

    Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)

    It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!

    Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che Guevara

    It is hard to think of a time when Rail has worked well in this country post 1960s.

    Under nationalisation there were some truly terrible decisions on track, rolling stock, fares, freight, catering and industrial relations. There was very little to applaud in the BR days.

    Many of those faults are still with us. The level of fares is obscene, and that is the major gripe of the commuter belt. You don't feel as if you have value for money when you shell out 5 grand a year for standing room in a hot sweaty carriage.

    However, the franchise / public ownership debate is a sideline to that issue. It is a capacity problem that is not altered by ownership structure.

    There may well be a better structure than the franchise system we use, but I am not convinced it is nationalisation.

    The other question you would have to ask as a government is: 'Do I want to be responsible in the eyes of the electorate for the failings of the rail system (which are greater than ownership structure)?' Will running the rail system be a vote winner or looser?
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    BobaFett said:

    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP

    Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?
    There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    edited June 2014



    You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...

    It depends what you mean by large. People tend to overestimate the impact of campaigns, probably because the compulsory neutral TV coverage tends to balance things out with a boost to the third party as they get more coverage than usual and a weakening of the Conservative bonus given by extra funding (because of spending limits). There's a pretty definitive overview here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    Broadly, the LibDems took about 5 points from the Tories and 2 from Labour. So the net Con-Lab effect was a swing of 1.5 points. It's possible that the campaign will have some astonishing effects, but generally - speaking with 2010 memories in mind - the statement that things will all come right in the campaign is last straw-clutching and it doesn't usually work out. We are running out of black swans.

    Bear in mind that the Conservatives have already played their supposed trumps - "The economy is doing really well" and "Don't let Ed be PM". People say "mmm, maybe" to both but it's not producing a Tory lead, let alone exceeding the 7% lead needed to get them back to their 2010 level and start winning Labour seats. Is there *anyone* here who actually thinks they'll get a bigger lead than 7?

  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    TGOHF said:



    What if Cam gets so hacked off he chucks in the towel and says he's backing "OUT"

    Do you still vote Kipper to end up with Miliband and no referendum ?

    The Cameroon strategy seems to be perform some stupid pantomime over nonsense like Jankers in the hope it will con Ukip voters into believing the Cameroons aren't 100% Europhile.

    The Cameroons better hope Ukip voters are as thick as they think they are.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    FPT
    Pulpstar said:


    Do people just enjoy losing money backing England or something ?

    It's like putting money in a wishing well - sympathetic magic.
  • JackWJackW Posts: 14,787

    BobaFett said:

    Preempting the ARSE, Dyedwoolies monitor is moving against the Tories
    GE2015
    Lab 318
    Tory 270
    Lib Dem 20
    Green 2
    UKIP 3
    Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)

    Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP

    Thanks Dyed. Would be as good as a majority given SF don't take up their seats?
    There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.
    Quite and not only with Labour. Why would the LibDems tie themselves to S&C to any party and the negativity that comes with propping up a government but without any of the benefits of office and policy enactment ?

  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,526



    You assume that the campaign itself will have no effect. The 2010 campaign, IIRC, had quite a large one...

    It depends what you mean by large. People tend to overestimate the impact of campaigns, probably because the compulsory neutral TV coverage tends to balance things out with a boost to the third party as they get more coverage than usual and a weakening of the Conservative bonus given by extra funding (because of spending limits). There's a pretty definitive overview here:

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010

    Broadly, the LibDems took about 5 points from the Tories and 2 from Labour. So the net Con-Lab effect was a swing of 1.5 points. It's possible that the campaign will have some astonishing effects, but generally - speaking with 2010 memories in mind - the statement that things will all come right in the campaign is last straw-clutching and it doesn't usually work out. We are running out of black swans.

    Bear in mind that the Conservatives have already played their supposed trumps - "The economy is doing really well" and "Don't let Ed be PM". People say "mmm, maybe" to both but it's not producing a Tory lead, let alone exceeding the 7% lead needed to get them back to their 2010 level and start winning Labour seats. Is there *anyone* here who actually thinks they'll get a bigger lead than 7?

    If we were seeing a Tory lead at this stage of the Parliament, we could expect to see a comfortable Conservative majority at the next election.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,036
    UKIP would do very, very well if they announced railway renationalisation as a key policy for 2015. It would leave the Tories isolated as the only party willing to maintain the status quo which socialises losses and investment and privatises profit (or in some cases, socialises them, just for other nations/governments).
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    JackW said:

    BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS **** BREAKING WIND NEWS ****

    The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 10th June Projection) :

    Con 312 (-3) .. Lab 274 (+3) .. LibDem 32 (+1) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1

    Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
    ......................................................................................

    "JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :

    Bury North - TCTC
    Pudsey - TCTC
    Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
    Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
    Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
    Ipswich - TCTC
    Watford - TCTC
    Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
    Enfield - TCTC (From Likely Con Hold)
    Cornwall North - TCTC
    Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
    Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
    Ochill and South Perthshire - TCTC

    Changes From 10th June - Enfield moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC.

    TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
    Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
    Gain/Hold - Over 2500
    .......................................................................................

    WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
    JNN - Jacobite News Network
    ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors

    I'd expect Pudsey to go to Labour - how come you have it TCTC ?
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    edited June 2014
    Financier said:
    I guess if you are in the select bubble that studied politics at Uni you might know what he is banging on about.

    Funnier though is the messenger now being shot

    "I would put the people who are fuelling the air of crisis into three categories:

    1) Commentators like Dan Hodges who have bet their reputation on Ed being a loser so they have a vested interest in helping fulfil their prediction by putting the boot into him.

    2) Plotters. A minority of the people who didn’t vote for Ed to be leader want the party’s decision revisited. Being charitable, they may have a different political vision and/or think another leader is more voter-friendly. Being uncharitable they may feel their careers will advance faster in an opposition led by someone else (maybe themselves?) than in a government led by Ed.

    3) Well-intentioned worriers. This third category definitely has the party’s best interests at heart but needs to realise that there are positive ways to suggest how we and Ed can up our game, and then there are headless chicken reactions that just make things worse."
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Messenger not happy about being shot

    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
    Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.
  • MrJonesMrJones Posts: 3,523
    not sure on the relevance as no idea on the scale but there's not just been "white flight" from the cities but also private sector middle class from ethnic minorities (who I think are still disproportionately Lab?) the commuting connection made me wonder.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    TGOHF said:

    Messenger not happy about being shot

    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
    Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.

    Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff 15s

    For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    On topic, survation themselves say the MoE on these polls is 6.2%, the finding on rail nationalisation isn't surprising, but in line with t'other polls.

    http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3xogmu28sf/YouGov_Times_140304.pdf
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,526

    TGOHF said:

    Messenger not happy about being shot

    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
    Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.

    Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff 15s

    For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
    Paradoxically, Labour could do as badly as the Conservatives did in 2001, and still win the election (I don't think it's likely, but it is possible).

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    On topic part II.

    If these polls are correct, then it means the Lib Dems are doing really badly where it doesn't matter, and we can infer they are doing better where it counts.

    Two betting implications.

    The Lib Dems are going to lose 150+ deposits at the GE, coupled with the Lord A poll last week, and this, the Lib Dems 31-40 band does look the one to go on.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,561
    Financier said:
    He's something of a Labour movement icon - a bit like Thatcher for many Tories - as he's seen as having effected a lasting change in society (the NHS) as well as managing an obviously difficult situation with calm and dignity. That said, he did lose the third time round, so Miliband might need to worry about the 2025 election. :-)

    In reality he was vehemently opposed by the left at the time, notably by the Tony Benn of his day, Harold Laski, but these things blur in the rosy mists of hindsight.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    philiph said:

    BobaFett said:

    Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)

    It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!

    Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che Guevara

    The level of fares is obscene, and that is the major gripe of the commuter belt. You don't feel as if you have value for money when you shell out 5 grand a year for standing room in a hot sweaty carriage.
    If it wasn't cheaper than driving, they wouldn't use the train.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633

    philiph said:

    BobaFett said:

    Have to say, rail re nationalisation is the only lefty icky thingy I currently support :-)

    It's not particular lefty to support it. Even that well known Red Peter Hitchens supports it!

    Yeah but it's nationalisation, man! I feel like Che Guevara

    The level of fares is obscene, and that is the major gripe of the commuter belt. You don't feel as if you have value for money when you shell out 5 grand a year for standing room in a hot sweaty carriage.
    If it wasn't cheaper than driving, they wouldn't use the train.

    Under public ownership the trains would be free - and there would be a moon on a stick for every passenger !
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Messenger not happy about being shot

    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
    Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.

    Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff 15s

    For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
    Paradoxically, Labour could do as badly as the Conservatives did in 2001, and still win the election (I don't think it's likely, but it is possible).

    By win do you mean majority or most seats ?

    Often see posters referring to "winning and "losing" and never quite sure if they are referring to most seats or majority.

  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    edited June 2014
    Financier said:
    Good Morning, I can remember Old Clement very well. Not a real leader but as chairman of the board, not bad. But the Labour government of 1945 - 50 was one that held Britain back from growth and advance for those dismal 5 years. And Clement is nothing like ED.
  • TomsToms Posts: 2,478
    My advice is:
    Do whatever it takes to bring back old conservatism. We would all benefit. Even we lefties.
  • FinancierFinancier Posts: 3,916

    Financier said:
    He's something of a Labour movement icon - a bit like Thatcher for many Tories - as he's seen as having effected a lasting change in society (the NHS) as well as managing an obviously difficult situation with calm and dignity. That said, he did lose the third time round, so Miliband might need to worry about the 2025 election. :-)

    In reality he was vehemently opposed by the left at the time, notably by the Tony Benn of his day, Harold Laski, but these things blur in the rosy mists of hindsight.
    Attlee won the 1950 GE by 5 seats and lost the 1951 GE to Churchill. So EdM had better beware 2016!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    edited June 2014

    May 2014 local election results.

    Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
    Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
    Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
    Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%

    http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/

    Just put £15 on Labour Reading West @ 11-4 - Had a look back at previous elections and it does seem to be very swingy. In fact in 2001 you could regard it as a safe seat for Labour !

    Those local election results do seem to be very good for Labour too there.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    I see Red say's he's going to "go on and on and on..."

    As LOTO, LOL!

    Dan Hodge's stuff of nightmares.
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,526
    Pulpstar said:

    Sean_F said:

    TGOHF said:

    Messenger not happy about being shot

    Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
    Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.

    Gaby Hinsliff ‏@gabyhinsliff 15s

    For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
    Paradoxically, Labour could do as badly as the Conservatives did in 2001, and still win the election (I don't think it's likely, but it is possible).

    By win do you mean majority or most seats ?

    Often see posters referring to "winning and "losing" and never quite sure if they are referring to most seats or majority.

    Both.

  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 60,672
    Rail privatisation has been an unmitigated success. Renationalisation would be a disaster.

    I would withdraw my support from any party committed to renationalising the railways.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    England last year, went into the last day of a test match/series, at 90/4 chasing a mahoosive target, but they avoided defeat.

    We can do it again.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569245.html
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    FPT
    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:


    Actually, they're quite interested in HSR between Edinburgh and Glasgow and working outwards from there.

    Right, but they are going to build it at zero cost?

    No, so your "savings' on high speed rail are mythical, like all the SNP fiscal plans.
    You aren't listening. Dependence, we pay 1.4 billion to help London get to Brum quicker. Independence, we don't. That is absolutely independent (to coin a phrase) of what we do in Scotland.

    Why the F should English taxpayers fork out for an entirely unjustified high speed railway between England and a barely populated, mainly frozen, midge infested, impossibly remote, hideously declining, blatantly hostile, repulsively socialist foreign country - i.e. independent Scotland?

    What's in it for us? Nothing. That's what. As long as you are part of Britain, you get the benefits of generous, sunbathed southerners in a good mood. If you leave, you become the Faroe Islands with a bit of coal in the scuttle and a history of spitting in our faces.

    I doubt Anglo-Scottish transport connections will IMPROVE in that context, unless you pay for everything and give us droit du seigneur. Again.
    Classic Unionist argument, in that it completely forgets to say what happens if we vote no. Which is, we don't get a HS2 line over the border anyway for 1-2 generations, so no difference there, and we end up paying for the London-Brum line. And, with the cuts and waste, a lot less of decent railway within Scotland itself.

  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Carnyx said:

    FPT

    SeanT said:

    Carnyx said:

    Scott_P said:

    Carnyx said:


    Actually, they're quite interested in HSR between Edinburgh and Glasgow and working outwards from there.

    Right, but they are going to build it at zero cost?

    No, so your "savings' on high speed rail are mythical, like all the SNP fiscal plans.
    You aren't listening. Dependence, we pay 1.4 billion to help London get to Brum quicker. Independence, we don't. That is absolutely independent (to coin a phrase) of what we do in Scotland.

    Why the F should English taxpayers fork out for an entirely unjustified high speed railway between England and a barely populated, mainly frozen, midge infested, impossibly remote, hideously declining, blatantly hostile, repulsively socialist foreign country - i.e. independent Scotland?

    What's in it for us? Nothing. That's what. As long as you are part of Britain, you get the benefits of generous, sunbathed southerners in a good mood. If you leave, you become the Faroe Islands with a bit of coal in the scuttle and a history of spitting in our faces.

    I doubt Anglo-Scottish transport connections will IMPROVE in that context, unless you pay for everything and give us droit du seigneur. Again.
    Classic Unionist argument, in that it completely forgets to say what happens if we vote no. Which is, we don't get a HS2 line over the border anyway for 1-2 generations, so no difference there, and we end up paying for the London-Brum line. And, with the cuts and waste, a lot less of decent railway within Scotland itself.

    Classic whiner argument forgetting all the investment made in Scotland - what do us Englanders get for that apart from to and from our shooting estates quicker.

    You've lost the ref - move on.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited June 2014
    I've never understood what was supposed to be so great about British Rail.

    When I was a kid my mum and I used to commute on the train a lot in the 1980's because I had lots of hospital appointments and my mum didn't drive a car.

    Anyway, the service was terrible. Trains were always running late or being cancelled. The amount of times we was late for or missed doctors appointments was crazy...

    The trains were clapped out. Dirty, smelly, ripped seats, etc...

    Compared to then, the rail service is much, much better now in my opinion.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Edit: I note Labour also won the trickier seat of Reading East at the locals - available @ 6-1 with Ladbrokes. I suspect come GE day it could well be a good value loser for Ed Miliband but it adds weight to Reading West going red.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    England last year, went into the last day of a test match/series, at 90/4 chasing a mahoosive target, but they avoided defeat.

    We can do it again.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569245.html

    Now I've got the "green" on the test hopefully we can avoid defeat.

    It would be a heroic effort to save the test from here.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Chuka on Sky talking about the living wage

    Load of nonsense, cant be imposed, wont work
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014

    There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.

    Very interesting post, Mike.

    As I've said in the past, there is a significant risk that the next GE may end up with a result where no stable government can be formed. The financial markets haven't yet woken up to this risk - in the past few months there have an increasing number of articles and analysts' research notes pointing to the political danger of GE2015, but almost always only in the context of how much of a danger Ed Miliband poses to our prosperity, not the danger of no effective government at all.
  • TGOHFTGOHF Posts: 21,633
    Pulpstar said:

    England last year, went into the last day of a test match/series, at 90/4 chasing a mahoosive target, but they avoided defeat.

    We can do it again.

    http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569245.html

    Now I've got the "green" on the test hopefully we can avoid defeat.

    It would be a heroic effort to save the test from here.
    Green on Lanka, zeros up Eng/draw.

    Also had a tickle on Jordon top scorer at 10/1
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    There is no way that LDs will do a S&C deal with LAB particularly if they have most seats on fewer votes.

    Very interesting post, Mike.

    As I've said in the past, there is a significant risk that the next GE may end up with a result where no stable government can be formed. The financial markets haven't yet woken up to this risk - in the past few months there have an increasing number of articles and analysts' research notes pointing to the political danger of GE2015, but almost always only in the context of how much of a danger Ed Miliband poses to our prosperity, not the danger of no effective government at all.
    The makeup of the next Gov't could be heavily affected by whether there is a Yes or No vote in Scotland next year.

    A "No" vote makes a stable Gov't more likely than with a "Yes" vote in my book tbh. Also Sinn Fein doing well in NI actually makes forming a stable Gov't slightly easier! (Betting, De Jure Minority; De Facto majority)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Gin

    Nobody is suggesting bringing back BR.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Could Sinn Fein improve on their 5 seats ? Is this likely ?
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    edited June 2014
    BobaFett said:

    @Gin

    Nobody is suggesting bringing back BR.

    I thought young Chez Milliband wanted to turn the clock back to 1972?
This discussion has been closed.