One thing’s already established for GE15. We are going to see far more different polling types than anything that has been experienced before at a British general election. We are also seeing a wider range of funders like today’s Survation poll in four key London commuter belt marginals which was commissioned by the RMT union.
Comments
To avoid a wipe out Tories have to do a deal with UKIP in some form or another. Anything over 5% UKIP is an election loss and 19% for UKIP is a 300 seat battering for the Tories.
Watch that referendum promise be fast tracked before May just as soon as Scots indy is out of the way....
Stevenage: Con 30%, Lab 36%, LD 9%, UKIP 21%, Green 2%
Milton Keynes South: Con 28%, Lab 30%, LD 12%, UKIP 22%, Green 7%
Crawley: Con 36%, Lab 40%, LD 2%, UKIP 19%, Green 1%
Reading West: Con 24%, Lab 46%, LD 12%, UKIP 6%, Green 9%
http://www.fabians.org.uk/election-2014-the-numbers/
Maybe some mileage in amending the referendum bill to bring it forward, as this looks eurosceptic while in fact definitively killing the bill by neutralizing the Parliament Act.
Milton Keynes South - 226
Crawley - 230
Reading West - 234
Stevenage - 225
The MoE of such polls is only slightly smaller than Eric Pickles gargantuan waistline. We may at least thank Survation for reminding us all that microscopic sample sizes are as much use as an English Cricket, Football .... (insert sport as required) team.
http://survation.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/RMT-Rail-Ownership-Poll-Tables.pdf
2 hours
It also seems to be the one of these seats that is least kipper. Is there any reason for this?
Not only is this poll bad for LDs and Tories; it is bad for kippers too. There are no seats for you here in Milliband territory.
Anyone who disagrees with our flawless logic is a leftie fruitcake or delusional or clutching at straws like pointless key marginals polls and national polls and eventually the general election result itself showing Labour winning. And anyway, Ed can't eat a sandwich, so he can't be allowed to win so we've decreed he won't.
Roll on the ARSE for a real poll which matters!
MK South: C 38%, L 34%, Ukip 20%, LD 4%
Crawley: C 39%, L 39%, Ukip 16%, LD 0%
R West: C 32%, L 44%, Ukip 13%, LD 2%
Steve: C 25%, L 38%, Ukip 27%, LD 3%
But I guess the RMT had other reasons for the poll than VI for politics geeks.
"Smiles"
The tory vote is down 8.7% which puts them at about 28% which seems a touch low.
The Lib Dems are down 15.2% which gets them down to about 8% which is in line with recent polling.
UKIP are up 15.4% which puts them at about 18% which is again fairly in line.
So actually, other than a slightly low tory score this polling seems to me to be pretty much in line with current polling and does not show the tories doing markedly worse than they are overall, maybe a per cent or two at most. It shows what a mountain they still have to climb to have any chance of remaining the largest party.
I remain of the view that is unlikely and that Labour will be the largest party with any swing back from here only denying them a majority.
More seriously doesn’t the 2% (or similar) LD share underline the probability of substantially higher shares elsewhere?
May I also advise PBers that the 0% LibDem score in Crawley is entirely unrelated to any shortage of Scottish LibDems in the Auchentennach vicinity or the "Visit Scotland" publicity campaign run in "LibDem Focus" in parts of Sussex and sponsored by a senior figure in the said Auchentennach community ....
It may, of course, be the correct one.
Much as I admire Jacks ARSE, it look as if the only thing likely to prevent Ed being PM is if he was crushed in a freak pie accident perpetrated by Scots nobility.
So far as the campaign is concerned I don't really recall it having a big effect other than for the Lib Dems with the Cleggasm which turned out to be a bit of a damp squib with the vote up only slightly and the seats down.
I do expect the Lib Dem vote to recover somewhat although I am becoming more pessimistic about the extent of that and I expect the Kipper vote to fall a chunk with some benefit to the tories. I just don't see this being enough to stop Labour from being the largest party.
I'll give it some consideration ....
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/2015guide/readingwest/
http://www.reading.gov.uk/elections/election/10/shareOfVote/
31 minutes 31 seconds
There is an argument for allowing private companies to run publicly owned rail services in a concession, but franchising is an extremely expensive, convoluted way if running a railway that embeds privatised monopolies. London manages well with regulated, publicly owned transport. Crossrail is a public scheme. Lines that are in the public sector, such as East Coast, have performed well.
High time for a rethink.
Patrick Wintour@patrickwintour·5 mins
@patrickwintour fair points - suspicious of commissioned polls show that tell client that their issue will change how people vote.
LAB 330 CON 263 LD 33 UKIP 0 Others 26 (Ed is crap is PM)
BJESUS (Big John Election Service Uniform Swing)
Using current polling adjusted for 309 days left to go factor and using UKPR standard swingometer
1. IHT - good or bad?
2. Ed Miliband - PM or not so much?
3. Yellow peril - why oh why?
4. Spurs - Champs League or bust?
Will it produce a 'he might be a twit, but he is OUR twit' bounce?
Go sceptic, go hard, Dave
GE2015
Lab 318
Tory 270
Lib Dem 20
Green 2
UKIP 3
Nats and NI 37 (SNP gain 8 seats)
Ed Miliband is Primeminister of a minority government with S and C from Lib Dems, Greens and SDLP
The Tories probably would need a similar level, maybe a couple less as they would almost certainly get support from the DUP as needed
The breaking news is that WIND is reporting to the JNN the contents of the latest ARSE 2015 General Election and "JackW Dozen" Projections. (Change from 10th June Projection) :
Con 312 (-3) .. Lab 274 (+3) .. LibDem 32 (+1) .. SNP 8 .. PC 2 .. NI 18 .. UKIP 2 (-1) .. Respect 0 .. Green 1 .. Ind 0 .. Speaker 1
Conservatives 14 seats short of a majority
......................................................................................
"JackW Dozen" - 13 seats that will shape the General Election result :
Bury North - TCTC
Pudsey - TCTC
Broxtowe - Likely Lab Gain
Warwickshire North - Likely Lab Gain
Cambridge - Likely LibDem Hold
Ipswich - TCTC
Watford - TCTC
Croydon Central - Likely Con Hold
Enfield - TCTC (From Likely Con Hold)
Cornwall North - TCTC
Great Yarmouth - Likely Con Hold
Vale of Glamorgan - Likely Con Hold
Ochill and South Perthshire - TCTC
Changes From 10th June - Enfield moves from Likely Con Hold to TCTC.
TCTC - Too Close To Call - Less than 500 votes
Likely Hold/Gain - 500 - 2500 votes
Gain/Hold - Over 2500
.......................................................................................
WIND - Whimsical Independent News Division
JNN - Jacobite News Network
ARSE - Anonymous Random Selection of Electors
Agreed. Telecoms works better in the private sector - agreed. Telecoms works better in the private sector because there is genuine competition and the privatisation was well thought through. Rail, no. There is no or little competition on most lines and in a couple of cases (EC, Southeastern/Connex?) the government has simply had to take the lines back when a contractor has walked away. The UK isn't a banana republic and therefore the railway cannot be allowed to fail. Franchising is expensive, convoluted and - a generation on - the public still doesn't understand it. The subsidy is larger than it ever was under BR, which was the most efficient railway in Europe when it was privatised.
BR should not be revived however. Instead, let the government bid for franchises as they come up and take them one by one at no cost. That our lines can currently be nationalised to France and Germany but not to the UK (except in extremis a la ECML) is risible.
I think Tories just short is a very unlikely result though. If there is some sort of swing back if the economy really flies for the next few months or UKIP fizzle, I think it would push them through the glass ceiling on the back of a Lib Dempocalypse.
What I cannot grasp is why thr government is inviting ire by attempting to re-privatise ECML in the late winter, just before the election. This is a gift to Labour. The service has been run very well in government hands and the move will be deeply unpopular and force the debate on to Labour's home turf.
If the government really believes in franchising, why is it keeping the biggest railway build in Europe - Crossrail - in the public sector? Answer, because it knows, in its heart, that the railway, like the military, is best in the public sector. Because it's in London it's too dear to them to mess with and risk private sector cock ups.
Telling.
Same as the NHS and schools.
Under nationalisation there were some truly terrible decisions on track, rolling stock, fares, freight, catering and industrial relations. There was very little to applaud in the BR days.
Many of those faults are still with us. The level of fares is obscene, and that is the major gripe of the commuter belt. You don't feel as if you have value for money when you shell out 5 grand a year for standing room in a hot sweaty carriage.
However, the franchise / public ownership debate is a sideline to that issue. It is a capacity problem that is not altered by ownership structure.
There may well be a better structure than the franchise system we use, but I am not convinced it is nationalisation.
The other question you would have to ask as a government is: 'Do I want to be responsible in the eyes of the electorate for the failings of the rail system (which are greater than ownership structure)?' Will running the rail system be a vote winner or looser?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_United_Kingdom_general_election,_2010
Broadly, the LibDems took about 5 points from the Tories and 2 from Labour. So the net Con-Lab effect was a swing of 1.5 points. It's possible that the campaign will have some astonishing effects, but generally - speaking with 2010 memories in mind - the statement that things will all come right in the campaign is last straw-clutching and it doesn't usually work out. We are running out of black swans.
Bear in mind that the Conservatives have already played their supposed trumps - "The economy is doing really well" and "Don't let Ed be PM". People say "mmm, maybe" to both but it's not producing a Tory lead, let alone exceeding the 7% lead needed to get them back to their 2010 level and start winning Labour seats. Is there *anyone* here who actually thinks they'll get a bigger lead than 7?
The Cameroons better hope Ukip voters are as thick as they think they are.
How many PBers can remember Attlee?
Funnier though is the messenger now being shot
"I would put the people who are fuelling the air of crisis into three categories:
1) Commentators like Dan Hodges who have bet their reputation on Ed being a loser so they have a vested interest in helping fulfil their prediction by putting the boot into him.
2) Plotters. A minority of the people who didn’t vote for Ed to be leader want the party’s decision revisited. Being charitable, they may have a different political vision and/or think another leader is more voter-friendly. Being uncharitable they may feel their careers will advance faster in an opposition led by someone else (maybe themselves?) than in a government led by Ed.
3) Well-intentioned worriers. This third category definitely has the party’s best interests at heart but needs to realise that there are positive ways to suggest how we and Ed can up our game, and then there are headless chicken reactions that just make things worse."
Dan Hodges @DPJHodges · 24m
Mark my words. Those people being most vocal in their defence of Ed M now will be the most brutal in their condemnation when he loses.
For anyone who covered the Tories under Hague, the current 'What Do We Do About Ed Miliband' story doesn't half feel like deja vu.
http://d25d2506sfb94s.cloudfront.net/cumulus_uploads/document/3xogmu28sf/YouGov_Times_140304.pdf
If these polls are correct, then it means the Lib Dems are doing really badly where it doesn't matter, and we can infer they are doing better where it counts.
Two betting implications.
The Lib Dems are going to lose 150+ deposits at the GE, coupled with the Lord A poll last week, and this, the Lib Dems 31-40 band does look the one to go on.
In reality he was vehemently opposed by the left at the time, notably by the Tony Benn of his day, Harold Laski, but these things blur in the rosy mists of hindsight.
Often see posters referring to "winning and "losing" and never quite sure if they are referring to most seats or majority.
Do whatever it takes to bring back old conservatism. We would all benefit. Even we lefties.
Those local election results do seem to be very good for Labour too there.
As LOTO, LOL!
Dan Hodge's stuff of nightmares.
I would withdraw my support from any party committed to renationalising the railways.
We can do it again.
http://www.espncricinfo.com/new-zealand-v-england-2013/engine/match/569245.html
You've lost the ref - move on.
When I was a kid my mum and I used to commute on the train a lot in the 1980's because I had lots of hospital appointments and my mum didn't drive a car.
Anyway, the service was terrible. Trains were always running late or being cancelled. The amount of times we was late for or missed doctors appointments was crazy...
The trains were clapped out. Dirty, smelly, ripped seats, etc...
Compared to then, the rail service is much, much better now in my opinion.
It would be a heroic effort to save the test from here.
Load of nonsense, cant be imposed, wont work
As I've said in the past, there is a significant risk that the next GE may end up with a result where no stable government can be formed. The financial markets haven't yet woken up to this risk - in the past few months there have an increasing number of articles and analysts' research notes pointing to the political danger of GE2015, but almost always only in the context of how much of a danger Ed Miliband poses to our prosperity, not the danger of no effective government at all.
Also had a tickle on Jordon top scorer at 10/1
A "No" vote makes a stable Gov't more likely than with a "Yes" vote in my book tbh. Also Sinn Fein doing well in NI actually makes forming a stable Gov't slightly easier! (Betting, De Jure Minority; De Facto majority)
Nobody is suggesting bringing back BR.
http://www.bringbackbritishrail.org/
http://www.theweek.co.uk/politics/2989/bring-back-british-rail-surefire-vote-winner
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=jPHAaPO0ViU
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/1411487/Bring-back-BR-say-nostalgic-Britons.html