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Home or Abroad? – politicalbetting.com

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  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Pulpstar said:

    Utter rot.
    So what should we do about the new strains the medics are identifying and highlighting that the vaccine may not protect us against?

    Don;t tell me, let me guess.

    The answer is more lockdown, right? has to be?
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    https://www.politicshome.com/news/article/new-covid19-mutation-that-could-allow-virus-to-evade-immunity-has-been-detected-in-england

    For Philip Thompson and all the other vaccine worshipers out there.

    Plenty of people are determined that we never, ever, get out of this.

    The authoritarian medics are already preparing the post vaccine ground for eternal lockdown. Vaccines, as I commented recently, are little more than tractor stats.

    How will Johnson break this to a public that expects to be free soon?


    Yes, it will be just like food rationing cards. A temporary measure for WW2 they said, but here we still are.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682

    I hate to say it but it looks like a lot of people might owe the old Ruskies an apology. There were a lot of people who were dissing the idea that the Russians could have developed a viable vaccine so quickly. Very glad, from a humanitarian point of view that it looks like they were wrong.
    What was being dissed was the idea they could have run full clinical trials so quickly.
    They clearly didn't, and took a gamble (much more so than did we), which seems to have paid off.

    I think quite a few were also saying that Russian science is pretty good, and so it has proved.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544
    Foxy said:

    It was a Dutch group overseeing the trial.
    Sounds good. Seems remarkable how many different ones, with different methods, have succeeded.
  • Nigelb said:

    She's got chills.
    They're multiplyin'.
    And she's losin' control....

    For the COVID, she's deniyin'
    It's stupefyin'
  • Foxy said:

    Very few over 60's in the Sputnik again. The two disallowed deaths in the treatment group raises an eyebrow! I would really want to know how they were removed from the results.
    This seems like a real red flag.
    https://twitter.com/hildabast/status/1356585269877563392

    A few other red flags in that thread.

    Is there any reason to have any more confidence in this than in Russian antidoping reports giving the green light to all Russian athletes saying they're all clean?

    The vaccine may work but without independent verification I wouldn't trust it.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes, it will be just like food rationing cards. A temporary measure for WW2 they said, but here we still are.
    Rationing continued for seven years after WW2.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,789
    edited February 2021

    I also look forward to you embracing the principle of 'I'm All Right, Jack' in other areas of national life, which you have so enthusiastically done in this case.

    I get it - antinationalism has so distorted your moral sense that the very idea of first helping British people in need (other than yourself, of course) is anathema, and fucking them over for the sake of just about anyone else on the planet is a virtue. Congratulations.

    And no wonder you have no time for the 'stupid personalizing stuff', because it exposes your position as the bankrupt hypocrisy it is. At least have the courage of your convictions and insist that you'll refuse the jab until all the people you want to give other people's doses to have had theirs. But you won't - not in a million years.
    Truly pathetic. My view has zero to do with whether I personally get a jab or not. I haven't as yet and won't for quite a while. And if before then the government announces my wait will be longer because of a priority shift to places where the need is greater, I will be ok with that. That's the truth. I'm sorry if this makes you feel like a mean-spirited, entitled "me first" little shit. Perhaps you are.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    kinabalu said:

    Interestingly, Labour are positioning in quite the opposite way. I think they will be arguing AGAINST whatever diversion of supplies the government ends up proposing (if they do).
    They would be very wise to do so.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    edited February 2021
    I expect Orban? and the Serbians? will be happy looking at the Sputnik efficacy this morning. And tbh If I was on the EU's periphery I'd probably take the risks and place an order.
    The likes of France and Germany won't, too much pride.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Back of a fag packet:

    Target (UK, all doses, all nations) >>> 15,000,000
    Thru >>> 10,140,570
    To target >>> 4,859,424
    Days to target (14.02.21 2359hrs) 13
    Required rate/day 373,801
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253

    Be prepared to be trampled underfoot by the crowd rushing to make that apology.

    I seem to recall @YBarddCwsc saying early on that it would be dumb to dismiss Russian science whatever one thought of the government.
    Wasn't the criticism mostly that they started using it (or claimed that they were) before the PIII trial results? So the fear was that it wasn't properly tested, unlike the processes for Pfizer and AZN and so (i) had unproven benefits and (ii) if it was shown to be not very effective or adverse effects emerged that were not apparent in the earlier stage trials then it would undermine acceptance of other, properly tested, Covid vaccines.

    The UK and US could have started using Pfizer and AZN at a similar time point and - given what we now know from the trials - that would have not been a bad thing. But we didn't know that at the time and neither did Russia.
  • Foxy said:

    It was a Dutch group overseeing the trial.
    Golly, I would have though relations in general would be pretty frosty between NL and Russia after MH17. Good that some stuff overrides that.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021
    DougSeal said:

    Why would anyone want that? It makes no logical sense. Scientists and doctors are people too. They like going to the pub, theatres etc etc. Their families are suffering in this as much as those of everyone else.
    They want to get out of this as much as everyone else. Websites and other forms of media, on the other hand, love to report shit like this your way because it drives clicks and likes.
    The stories about the new variants are being reported by politico, ITV and BBC. Not clickbait sites.

    The new variants, according to their narrative, already threaten the protection of the vaccines.

    So what's the answer?

    It can only be more lockdown. Strip away vaccine protection, as the new variants do (or may do), and that's what we are left with.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    Foxy said:

    The Sputnik does already use different viral vectors for each dose.

    Sputniks potential flaw (and something it shares with AZN) is that vector immunity makes it harder to effectively retool.
    Though we're not really sure how much of a problem that is (that it might not be is hinted at by the apparent increased effectiveness of the delayed booster).
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 44,617
    IshmaelZ said:

    Yes, it will be just like food rationing cards. A temporary measure for WW2 they said, but here we still are.
    Rationing ended rather before my time, if not yours. But IIRC export controls on works of art stem from the same DORA of WW2.

    What you should have cited was income tax - a temporary measure for the French Revolutionary Wars ...
  • BromBrom Posts: 3,760

    Sadly in America and Australia antivaxxers is a really popular thing.

    Sad to say Olivia Newton John is another antivaxxer.

    Will never watch Grease again.

    https://www.thesun.co.uk/tvandshowbiz/13905490/olivia-newton-john-coronavirus-vaccine-daughter-anti-vaxxer-theory/
    It's OK, you can always watch Grease 2.
  • malcolmg said:

    Yet again you just cannot help yourself. keep promoting partial truths and now you try to pretend we don't pay for the Army and that the Army we pay for is doing us a favour and suddenly are British and not Scottish part of the UK funded Army. Give yourself a shake and stop digging or you will be in Australia soon.
    Scotland isn't part of Britain? Huge if true!
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    edited February 2021
    kinabalu said:

    Truly pathetic. My view has zero to do with whether I personally get a jab or not. I haven't as yet and won't for quite a while. And if before then the government announces my wait will be longer because of a priority shift to some places where the need is greater, I will be ok with that. That's the truth. I'm sorry if this makes you feel like a mean spirited, entitled "me first" little shit. Perhaps you are.
    Glad you said that (the first bit). Cleared up a confusion. April/May for both of us I think. I couldn`t understand why some posters were saying that you had already been vaccinated.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,532

    Back of a fag packet:

    Target (UK, all doses, all nations) >>> 15,000,000
    Thru >>> 10,140,570
    To target >>> 4,859,424
    Days to target (14.02.21 2359hrs) 13
    Required rate/day 373,801

    If the supplies are there - smashed out the park.
  • Brom said:

    It's OK, you can always watch Grease 2.
    I thought Grease was cancelled these days...racist, rapey, homophobic and slut-shaming.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 30,795

    What an utter tosser.
    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1356604651748155392

    The above from him is a real clanger too - Astrazeneca's specific advice IS for a 12 week gap as best practise.
  • The stories about the new variants are being reported by politico, ITV and BBC. Not clickbait sites.

    The new variants, according to their narrative, already threaten the protection of the vaccines.

    So what's the answer?

    It can only be more lockdown. Strip away vaccine protection, as the new variants do (or may do), and that's what we are left with.
    If you want to campaign for lockdowns you do it.

    I'd rather have a vaccine rollout and new vaccines worked on for the future than a lockdown, but if you prefer a lockdown then you do you.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,532
    Pulpstar said:

    I expect Orban? and the Serbians? will be happy looking at the Sputnik efficacy this morning. And tbh If I was on the EU's periphery I'd probably take the risks and place an order.
    The likes of France and Germany won't, too much pride.

    Thought Germany was toying with it already?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544

    I thought Grease was cancelled these days...racist, rapey, homophobic and slut-shaming.
    Well hopefully Grease 2 is ok.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 76,682
    MaxPB said:

    I think the government and Biden's administration have recognised this, hence our huge contributions to COVAX, it's EU nations states that are completely underinvesting in vaccine production both at home with their own programme and overseas through COVAX.

    I think I'd be ok with our aid budget being used to make up the difference but ultimately it needs to then support UK industry and interested if we're going above and beyond what we are already doing for international schemes.
    Agreed.

    But just to put it out there again:
    https://www.nber.org/papers/w28395#fromrss
    ...Our estimates suggest that up to 49 percent of the global economic costs of the pandemic in 2021 are borne by the advanced economies even if they achieve universal vaccination in their own countries.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    kinabalu said:

    Truly pathetic. My view has zero to do with whether I personally get a jab or not. I haven't as yet and won't for quite a while. And if before then the government announces my wait will be longer because of a priority shift to places where the need is greater, I will be ok with that. That's the truth. I'm sorry if this makes you feel like a mean-spirited, entitled "me first" little shit. Perhaps you are.
    You are explicitly endorsing a plan that will mean you are personally protected, while those younger than you can go fuck themselves.

    I don't know about you, but that sounds like the position of a selfish little shit to me.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    If the supplies are there - smashed out the park.
    The target is based on invited to be vaccinated. So even if supplies aren`t there ...
  • BBC News - Covid: Scottish schools to start phased return this month
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-55904466
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Carnyx said:

    Rationing ended rather before my time, if not yours. But IIRC export controls on works of art stem from the same DORA of WW2.

    What you should have cited was income tax - a temporary measure for the French Revolutionary Wars ...
    Well, no, because income tax turned out to be here to stay, and my point was that lockdowns are not.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,166
    RobD said:

    No difference between them, no siree. Care to point me to the CPTPP parliament and commission.
    Not to mention their Court (hint they don't have one but set up ad hoc arbitrations as required) or their system of law overriding the law of the membership countries (nope).

    Let's put it this way. If the EU was anything like the CPTPP we would still be members.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1356604651748155392

    The above from him is a real clanger too - Astrazeneca's specific advice IS for a 12 week gap as best practise.
    He is really quite something, and so blatant in intent he must be doing it cynically.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    Rationing continued for seven years after WW2.
    And then what happened?
  • You are explicitly endorsing a plan that will mean you are personally protected, while those younger than you can go fuck themselves.

    I don't know about you, but that sounds like the position of a selfish little shit to me.
    He's advocating a plan that means fewer vaccines for the young, and fewer vaccines for the rest of the world.

    It can only be hate that is driving him because it is illogical.

    There will be more vaccines given out to the third world if the UK finishes its vaccine rollout than if we don't. So why would we now finish our own rollout?
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    The stories about the new variants are being reported by politico, ITV and BBC. Not clickbait sites.

    The new variants, according to their narrative, already threaten the protection of the vaccines.

    So what's the answer?

    It can only be more lockdown. Strip away vaccine protection, as the new variants do (or may do), and that's what we are left with.
    All sites are clickbait sites to a greater or lesser extent. If no one went to the BBC site would the licence fee be allowed to prop it up? Would anyone advertise on the ITV site if no one went to it? As I said, no one, absolutely no one, wants to live like this forever.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,164
    Selebian said:

    Reading them :wink:

    Seriously, the job applications from those who either were going through the motions or are really not qualified are quite depressing (I'm not in the legal profession, but I guess it's similar anywhere). Go for quality over quantity, apply (for now) only to places you'd actually want to work and put your heart and soul into each application. It comes through.

    (This does assume that your application gets to the person doing the hiring. If it's algorithmically sorted or farmed out to some flunky then, well... good luck is all I can say).
    Thank you. Unfortunately I have a mortgage to pay so don't have this luxury. I will have to just take anything and then progress from there.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    What probably happens is everyone gets two doses then those eligible for the flu jab get an annual booster jab.
    Maybe it can be extended to all adults ? Who knows though.

    Thought Germany was toying with it already?
    No need for the France and Netherlands to order any more supplies, they're REALLY pacing themselves.
  • https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1356604651748155392

    The above from him is a real clanger too - Astrazeneca's specific advice IS for a 12 week gap as best practise.
    Back pedalling already:

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1356595398266277901?s=20
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 83,457
    edited February 2021
    I am shocked that Comical Ali is shifting his metrics again....he really is the Alister Haimes of vaccinations.

    Before he was claiming if you started the window when vaccines approved, UK doing no better... conveniently not worrying about the fact Christmas and New Year in there and no AZN.

    Obviously now doesn't work, so now its "fully vaccinated"...problem is in 3 months, UK will be smashing that too.

    What's his next metric going to be? Only counting over 80s getting 2 doses of vaccines after Feb...UK again doing shit at that.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    You are explicitly endorsing a plan that will mean you are personally protected, while those younger than you can go fuck themselves.

    I don't know about you, but that sounds like the position of a selfish little shit to me.
    I`m not fond on these "selfish" allegations being banded about. (One of the dispiriting aspects of the pandemic in my view).

    Take responsibility for your own health and expect others to do the same = selfish
    Give vaccines to your chosen victim groups abroad and make yourself feel nice and fuzzy inside = selfish

    Can we just lay off with the selfish?
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,532
    Foxy said:

    I have had a biltong pizza, but slices doesn't work, it needs to be grated.

    Lovely country, and lovely peoples who are very welcoming apart from to each other.

    I once got stuck in a Transvaal town during a lumberjack festival with nowhere to stay. Some very welcoming neo-nazi Afrikaaners put me up for the night. I had to swap travel stories over a braai with them, in a house decorated with AWB flags etc. Really quite surreal, but I couldn't fault their hospitality.
    Better than my Sana'a check in story from last night!
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,789

    (i) The virus is only under control once its eliminated and all restrictions are lifted,
    (ii) That's not being said by anyone. The UK has done a lot of thinking about the global effort and funding and developing Covax.

    There is no right balance here. The right balance is to eradicate Covid - in the UK obviously is top priority and in the world's best interests too given we are aiding the world, then the world.
    Eradication is sadly not a realistic goal. Covid lives now and we - the world - will have to live with it. Hopefully, the impact of vaccines and treatments will within a few years push it into the background to join the flu. That would be a result.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,221
    edited February 2021
    kle4 said:

    He is really quite something, and so blatant in intent he must be doing it cynically.
    In ~ 8 weeks time we'll be motoring up that chart anyway :D
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited February 2021
    Are those UK vaccine figures finished for today?

    Have we got the breakdown of English/Welsh/NI and Scottish for today?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 55,166
    I see that our Dean of Faculty has questioned of wisdom of the SNP replacing a competent, experienced and tenacious QC with someone who has a degree in drama as their spokesperson on Home affairs. He told me that a reply suggests that Cherry's replacement may well be bringing forward their arguments in the form of interpretive dance.
  • kinabalu said:

    Eradication is sadly not a realistic goal. Covid lives now and we - the world - will have to live with it. Hopefully, the impact of vaccines and treatments will within a few years push it into the background to join the flu. That would be a result.
    Eradication is a very realistic goal.

    Vaccinate all adults and the virus will be effectively eradicated. The virus will find far fewer hosts able to spread it and even those hosts who do get it should be protected. Given the vaccine efficacy figures Covid19 should be less of a threat than the flu once everyone is vaccinated.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,181

    Are those UK vaccine figures finished for today?

    Have we got the breakdown of English/Welsh/NI and Scottish for today?

    4pm for the official release with the other data.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544

    No. 🤦🏻‍♂️

    The answer is new vaccines that address the new variants, like we get new flu vaccines developed every year.

    But currently people have 0% protection against Covid. Even if the vaccine is only 60% protective against the new variants that 60% is absolutely massive and could be enough to keep R in a new outbreak very low all by itself, without a lockdown.

    A few months ago people would have taken a 60% effective vaccine as a great result within a year of the outbreak starting.
    I blame Pfizer being first out with 90%. If a 60% one had gone first everyone would be thrilled rather than now nervous when lower ones are announced.
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045
    DougSeal said:

    Add to that that some estimate that over 50% of people in Folkestone & Hythe District in Kent have had Covid the herd immunity debate suddenly looks a different. I said earlier that I wondered if the fact that both SA and the UK had variants that ripped through their respective populations resulting in the sort of herd immunity that Sky reported on in SA. It was this piece from the local rag here in Kent that put me on that line of thinking in the UK -

    https://www.kentonline.co.uk/folkestone/news/the-kent-district-where-more-than-half-could-have-had-covid-240888/
    That's quite a range.
    19%-56% may have had it - doesn't really prompt one to assume it HAS to be at the top end, though.
  • At least medieval people who believed in the four humours had the justification of the scientific method not really existing during their lifetime.

    What excuse do modern day anti-vaxxers have?
  • Are those UK vaccine figures finished for today?

    Have we got the breakdown of English/Welsh/NI and Scottish for today?

    England 282,109 total, up 45,932 vs week ago, First 280,513 (+45,662), Second 1,596 (+270).

    I'm sure a Nat will be along shortly to point out Scotland's performance....
  • MattWMattW Posts: 26,616
    edited February 2021
    DavidL said:

    I see that our Dean of Faculty has questioned of wisdom of the SNP replacing a competent, experienced and tenacious QC with someone who has a degree in drama as their spokesperson on Home affairs. He told me that a reply suggests that Cherry's replacement may well be bringing forward their arguments in the form of interpretive dance.

    Um. You may be being either too optimistic or too pessimistic.

    Caroline Lucas does not present her case in chick-lit written in Elizabethan Prose.

    Deal with it :smile: .

    Though ... to be fair:

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fq3Q9AFt704
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795

    If the supplies are there - smashed out the park.
    Should be indeed. Looking pretty good, need a strong next few days to be absolutely confident.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544

    Back pedalling already:

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1356595398266277901?s=20
    *Lights fire*

    "Guys, stop getting excited by the fire"
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,789
    MattW said:

    80% is not far off "nearly all"?
    :smile: - Nice try.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    Are those UK vaccine figures finished for today?

    Have we got the breakdown of English/Welsh/NI and Scottish for today?

    34k for Scotland, 23k for Wales today.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 60,395
    edited February 2021
    She may be right......

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1356615043417333760?s=20

    My tuppence worth, borders definitely, schools a lot trickier - the Guernsey outbreak has had significant educational transmission, with B117 it may be harder - but a tough call which I don't envy any of them....
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 54,181
    edited February 2021

    At least medieval people who believed in the four humours had the justification of the scientific method not really existing during their lifetime.

    What excuse do modern day anti-vaxxers have?

    Medieval people based such beliefs on the best available data - the Top Men of their age (and ages past, such as Aristotle).

    Anti-vaxx has.... Wakefield.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    That's quite a range.
    19%-56% may have had it - doesn't really prompt one to assume it HAS to be at the top end, though.
    I'm not a scientist just a random bloke on a message board.
  • DavidL said:

    I see that our Dean of Faculty has questioned of wisdom of the SNP replacing a competent, experienced and tenacious QC with someone who has a degree in drama as their spokesperson on Home affairs. He told me that a reply suggests that Cherry's replacement may well be bringing forward their arguments in the form of interpretive dance.

    The Spectator, Tele and now you coming out in defence of Joanna. What a dream team!
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375
    Report from GP surgeries round here that vaccine supplies are increasing
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156
    Pulpstar said:

    In ~ 8 weeks time we'll be motoring up that chart anyway :D
    Will France even get ahead of us before we start doing serious numbers of second doses again?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,817
    It comes from not having democratic accountability. No one in the commission is going to pay the price for this failure and voters have no mechanism of removing them at their next election. They have to hope the various leaders decide that VdL and the others are actually very useless.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Stocky said:

    I`m not fond on these "selfish" allegations being banded about. (One of the dispiriting aspects of the pandemic in my view).

    Take responsibility for your own health and expect others to do the same = selfish
    Give vaccines to your chosen victim groups abroad and make yourself feel nice and fuzzy inside = selfish

    Can we just lay off with the selfish?
    Indeed. See also:

    "visited Barbados when it was perfectly legal to do so and when it had a much lower Covid rate = selfish" ...

    "took children on holiday to Majorca when the government said it was fine to do so = selfish" ...

    "had a couple of mates over for a glass of wine when I was sat at home in my hazmat suit eating gruel = selfish"...

    PB at its absolute worst.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    edited February 2021
    Stocky said:

    I`m not fond on these "selfish" allegations being banded about. (One of the dispiriting aspects of the pandemic in my view).

    Take responsibility for your own health and expect others to do the same = selfish
    Give vaccines to your chosen victim groups abroad and make yourself feel nice and fuzzy inside = selfish

    Can we just lay off with the selfish?
    Useful words tend to get used. I'm amused that that was your main issue with the language of the kinabalu-BB nuclear exchange though :wink:
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,789
    Stocky said:

    Glad you said that (the first bit). Cleared up a confusion. April/May for both of us I think. I couldn`t understand why some posters were saying that you had already been vaccinated.
    People were thinking I was 85. But, yes, I'm more your sort of vintage. Touch nearer to "going over" but ballpark.
  • SelebianSelebian Posts: 9,253

    Thank you. Unfortunately I have a mortgage to pay so don't have this luxury. I will have to just take anything and then progress from there.
    Well, there is that. I know the situation. Having said that, taking a job I had little enthusiasm for (only loosely related to my skills/qualifications at the time and with lowish pay) to pay the bills changed my career path completely and for the better.

    Also, we do also hire the people who can do the job but clearly aren't that interested in us or what we do, if there are not any better qualified candidates who are.

    Good luck!
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    kle4 said:

    I blame Pfizer being first out with 90%. If a 60% one had gone first everyone would be thrilled rather than now nervous when lower ones are announced.
    Sorry, but ministers of the crown are stoking the fear. 'Be extremely strict about your lockdown!

    and SAGE scientists say 'these super duper vaccine resistant strains may be the tip of the iceberg!

    I'm sorry, but these are not the actions of people who want to get out of lockdown. They manifestly are not.

    Whenever it looks like we might be approaching some sort of milestone there is another massive dose of fear porn. Not from 'clickbait' news sites but from f8cking government ministers and F8cking SAGE scientists.

    They are the actions of people who want to maintain lockdown. They cannot be anything else.


  • kle4 said:

    I blame Pfizer being first out with 90%. If a 60% one had gone first everyone would be thrilled rather than now nervous when lower ones are announced.
    I had to explain to my elderly mother that 60-70% is still very good and that the instances of serious illness were basically zero in the AZN trial.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited February 2021
    kle4 said:

    He is really quite something, and so blatant in intent he must be doing it cynically.
    It strikes me that he would have fit in quite nicely in Jonestown. He really is drinking whatever CoolAid the EC gives him, without question or hesitation.
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 19,156

    She may be right......

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1356615043417333760?s=20

    My tuppence worth, borders definitely, schools a lot trickier - the Guernsey outbreak has had significant educational transmission, with B117 it may be harder - but a tough call which I don't envy any of them....

    Worth remembering that observed case rates from testing are half of England's levels in Scotland, so roughly speaking the plan sounds like it would reopen schools with the same level of infection in the community as will be the case in England two weeks later.

    So if it is a mistake, then it's the same mistake England looks likely to make, unless they have enough time to see a change in Scotland and react accordingly.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,206
    MaxPB said:

    It comes from not having democratic accountability. No one in the commission is going to pay the price for this failure and voters have no mechanism of removing them at their next election. They have to hope the various leaders decide that VdL and the others are actually very useless.
    So, like our cabinet then?

    (Lights blue touch paper and walks away...)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,789

    Eradication is a very realistic goal.

    Vaccinate all adults and the virus will be effectively eradicated. The virus will find far fewer hosts able to spread it and even those hosts who do get it should be protected. Given the vaccine efficacy figures Covid19 should be less of a threat than the flu once everyone is vaccinated.
    Would be great - but from what I understand from my sources that is optimistic.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544
    Pulpstar said:

    In ~ 8 weeks time we'll be motoring up that chart anyway :D
    Yes, and his implication seems to be that 1st doses are pointless in terms of protection and so only second doses matters.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,746

    Sorry, but ministers of the crown are stoking the fear. 'Be extremely strict about your lockdown!

    and SAGE scientists say 'these super duper vaccine resistant strains may be the tip of the iceberg!

    I'm sorry, but these are not the actions of people who want to get out of lockdown. They manifestly are not.

    Whenever it looks like we might be approaching some sort of milestone there is another massive dose of fear porn. Not from 'clickbait' news sites but from f8cking government ministers and F8cking SAGE scientists.

    They are the actions of people who want to maintain lockdown. They cannot be anything else.


    So you are saying that every single member of SAGE is relishing the prospect of never going out again. That is what they want from life?
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,622
    Foxy said:

    Very few over 60's in the Sputnik again. The two disallowed deaths in the treatment group raises an eyebrow! I would really want to know how they were removed from the results.
    Developed covid, so taken out and shot - cause of death = shooting.

    (Joke, before anyone gets riled...)
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 831

    She may be right......

    https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1356615043417333760?s=20

    My tuppence worth, borders definitely, schools a lot trickier - the Guernsey outbreak has had significant educational transmission, with B117 it may be harder - but a tough call which I don't envy any of them....

    Scotland's case rate currently is half of England's, so leaving it another couple of weeks to get to a similar level seems entirely reasonable and shouldn't be difficult to explain.
  • I now fear that the European Union will find itself in the impossible situation of having to prolong some of the existing restrictions beyond the summer, while both Britain and the United States start to normalise. That is the cost of the vaccine delays: a very high cost in lives, prestige and further economic losses. The current crisis has the potential to spiral out of control. The imperative was to reduce the risks of that happening, no matter what the immediate financial cost. But again, to think technologically rather than legally is something that Brussels struggles with. Economies of scale, exponentials, tail risks — all foreign concepts.

    https://unherd.com/2021/02/why-the-eu-lost-the-vaccine-war/?=frlh
  • In a competitive field, a new entrant in the race to be crowned King of Pratts:

    https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1356556825626296321

    He's not a new entrant, though. He has an extensive and much-enjoyed portfolio of idiotic tweets.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    At least medieval people who believed in the four humours had the justification of the scientific method not really existing during their lifetime.

    What excuse do modern day anti-vaxxers have?

    Tuskegee was a thing, the HIV to haemophiliacs scandal was a thing, ADE is a thing. Anti vaxxers fail on a misjudgement of the preponderance of the evidence rather than on defective scientific method i would have thought.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    Indeed. See also:

    "visited Barbados when it was perfectly legal to do so and when it had a much lower Covid rate = selfish" ...

    "took children on holiday to Majorca when the government said it was fine to do so = selfish" ...

    "had a couple of mates over for a glass of wine when I was sat at home in my hazmat suit eating gruel = selfish"...

    PB at its absolute worst.
    I wish I could like that post a dozen times. We are so on the same page.
  • turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 18,622

    So what should we do about the new strains the medics are identifying and highlighting that the vaccine may not protect us against?

    Don;t tell me, let me guess.

    The answer is more lockdown, right? has to be?
    No - existing vaccines will work to some extent, and probably prevent severe disease. Vaccines will be tweaked and likely the existing winter flu programme gets added a covid component too, matched to the most prevalent strain. With mRNA, can be done very quickly (4-6 weeks from sequencing was the estimate, not sure about bulk though).
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276
    kinabalu said:

    People were thinking I was 85. But, yes, I'm more your sort of vintage. Touch nearer to "going over" but ballpark.
    Why did posters think you were 85? Were you yanking their chain?
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    edited February 2021
    DougSeal said:

    So you are saying that every single member of SAGE is relishing the prospect of never going out again. That is what they want from life?
    No I am saying that many members of SAGE are relishing the massive, unaccountable power that the British government has given them without any mandate whatsoever , and like every other 'human being' (as you put it) they have grown accustomed to it, like it, and do not want to let it go.

    That's what I am saying. And as you claimed, scientists are human beings. Human beings love telling other human beings what to do.

  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544
    After the Biden conversation photo I thought the flag war was dying down, but now I see we are moving into prop comedy. I can't wait to see what Keir has in store next time.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544
    Scott_xP said:
    Duh.

    The Senate already thinks it's wrong to convict a guilty man out of office though. So future presidents should save crimes for their last month and in DC exclusively.
  • Scott_xP said:
    You want to abolish the Good Friday Agreement?

    NI hasn't been solely the UK since 1997. Quite frankly so long as they find a solution that works, I don't give a damn and don't see why anyone else should either.
  • I hate to say it but it looks like a lot of people might owe the old Ruskies an apology. There were a lot of people who were dissing the idea that the Russians could have developed a viable vaccine so quickly. Very glad, from a humanitarian point of view that it looks like they were wrong.
    I'm not sure anyone was dissing their ability to produce a good vaccine - they have well-established expertise in this field. The question was about them rushing to deploy it before they had done proper Phase III trials.

    I'd still like to see some independent trials conducted outside Russia. Also there is the issue of quality control when producing millions of doses.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,276

    No I am saying that many members of SAGE are relishing the massive, unaccountable power that the British government has given them without any mandate whatsoever , and like every other 'human being' (as you put it) they have grown accustomed to it, like it, and do not want to let it go.

    That's what I am saying. And as you claimed, scientists are human beings. Human beings love telling other human beings what to do.

    Only if they are not liberals.

    I think you are being too harsh on the Sageies. I doubt that they are the power-hungry type.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    No - existing vaccines will work to some extent, and probably prevent severe disease. Vaccines will be tweaked and likely the existing winter flu programme gets added a covid component too, matched to the most prevalent strain. With mRNA, can be done very quickly (4-6 weeks from sequencing was the estimate, not sure about bulk though).
    OK if the authorities think vaccines are the answer, then why the massive dose of fear porn we are getting from Hancock and SAGE today? why the 'testing surge'. Why the doomsday warnings about staying home and strict observance? why the tip of the iceberg! stuff from SAGE.

    These are not the actions of people who believe vaccines are the answer. They simply are not. They cannot be. Their responses would be far, far more sanguine.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,544

    No I am saying that many members of SAGE are relishing the massive, unaccountable power that the British government has given them without any mandate whatsoever , and like every other 'human being' (as you put it) they have grown accustomed to it, like it, and do not want to let it go.

    That's what I am saying. And as you claimed, scientists are human beings. Human beings love telling other human beings what to do.

    I'd be more inclined to consider it if you used the word accountable correctly. Just today today there was talk of them being ignored by No 10 so not even all powerful.
This discussion has been closed.