I think the last 24 hours might have moved the dial a touch......
The last 24 hours have certainly reinforced my view that the UK will eventually have to rejoin the EU. But, I wonder if that was not your point!
The fact is that conflict between countries is not helpful in times of global emergency and while it might make good click bate for the gutter press countries fighting each other does not get the economies of the world back working and people protected from covid. Only working together does that.
I am always taken by the phrase, if you want to go fast go alone, if you want to far go together. We have a long way to go so going far is the long term priority.
If only we were providing vaccines as slow as the EU eh?
And threatening counties outside the EU because we were lashing out at our own incompetence.
I think you might be a minority view.
Always happy to be in a minority.
I have never seen any sensible reason to rush to be in with the crowd just for the sake of it.
The EU has not managed the vaccine roll out particularly well. But you and I may look at that differently, for me it is a stain upon the UK that we did not join with them and bring our expertise to that discussion to make the roll out across the continent of Europe better. That way we could have bought the covid crisis in the region under control more quickly, protected the economy better and ultimately saved lives.
The UK decided that it wanted to go it alone and that has caused tensions which will have distracted from the main objective. Germany have taken a different view and will be suffering short term pain as a result. But ultimately they will see the benefits of taking the longer term perspective.
The UK has become the masters of seeking to win the battles but failing to realise that we have lost the war.
If the Covid-19 vaccine becomes an annual thing like the flu vaccine, are we primus inter pares in future supplies or will we have to fight out all over. again?
No, the government has built a new facility which is capable of producing Adenovirus and mRNA vaccine doses in the hundreds of millions range per year. It's almost complete and because it is state owned there's not too much worry around IP sharing for production under licence.
It actually started production before the pandemic and had it come this year we'd have been ready for mass production far earlier than this time around.
If the Covid-19 vaccine becomes an annual thing like the flu vaccine, are we primus inter pares in future supplies or will we have to fight out all over. again?
I thought that was the point of the new Oxford factory - to provide local manufacturing to the vaccines we need bulk supplies of (i.e. was Flu now flu + covid xyz).
Instead of obsessing over pointless government press conferences and journalists' predictable questions, or wasting our energy listening to the PB Hysterions who go out of their way every day to find bad 'news' to fulfil their endless need for attention, we need someone to do a decent roundup of all the very good news that is happening at the moment:
• cases falling • over 85 hospitalisation rates responding to vax • excellent data from Israel • Johnson & Johnson one-shot vax imminent • nasal sprays looking promising • cancer treatment (name forgotten) appears to work
I'd hope that some sensible source like New Scientist or the Economist are lining something up.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I know that there are some good sections on the long distance cycle route parallel to the A9, but I don't know how much progress has been made filling in the gaps. From Edinburgh there's good links to the coast-to-coast cycle route and national route 1 to the north and south. I think the route from Glasgow to Loch Long is supposed to be good, but not certain.
You say you're not bothered by the weather, but you still might want to look at what the options are. Large East-West contrasts. Some might say that the Grampians have an optimal combination of snow days in winter and sunshine hours.
FPT Everything Osborne says in his Evening Standard article could have been said of Gaitskell in early 1961 - and indeed of Thatcher at the end of 1975. Labour has been largely invisible over the last month - though I doubt there is much they can do about that in the context of the sharp deterioration on the Covid front. As in wartime, party politics has largely gone into abeyance for the duration. People are simply not receptive to it - other than when obvious scandals occur as with Cummings last Spring and also the Care Home deaths. Both caused the Government discomfort but overall this scenario is likely to be benefitting the Government as Opposition voices are largely frozen out.
I can't believe what was posted by some people on the last thread about Handelsblatt. The story is STILL up. The tweets from the journalists are STILL up. They are STILL being spread. This has ALREADY gone around the world. This is INSANELY dangerous.
While not quite as stupid and ignorant as Owls with his placebo remarks last night, anyone playing down Handelsblatt's irresponsibility is being as dumb as ass.
We should be very grateful: This means more jabs for Brits!
If other countries are stupid enough not to authorise, that's their problem.
(In the interests of full disclosure, I would just note that Fauci said on Sunday that he expects AZN to be authorized after J&J in the US, so it isn't just the EU that is having an issue with it.)
We've already got enough on order to double dose every UK adult with AZN vaccine, before we even consider the huge number of other vaccines ordered.
Trouble is, I've seen this story being spread by (especially FBPE) Brits on twitter. If this leads to a lower uptake of vaccines in this country I won't be celebrating getting my vaccine a bit quicker, I'll be lamenting the extra deaths these Idioten have caused.
If the Covid-19 vaccine becomes an annual thing like the flu vaccine, are we primus inter pares in future supplies or will we have to fight out all over. again?
No, the government has built a new facility which is capable of producing Adenovirus and mRNA vaccine doses in the hundreds of millions range per year. It's almost complete and because it is state owned there's not too much worry around IP sharing for production under licence.
It actually started production before the pandemic and had it come this year we'd have been ready for mass production far earlier than this time around.
I can't believe what was posted by some people on the last thread about Handelsblatt. The story is STILL up. The tweets from the journalists are STILL up. They are STILL being spread. This has ALREADY gone around the world. This is INSANELY dangerous.
While not quite as stupid and ignorant as Owls with his placebo remarks last night, anyone playing down Handelsblatt's irresponsibility is being as dumb as ass.
The EMA has now also confirmed that the 8% story was a total lie/error
Interesting that the Tories have been attacking "woke identity politics" while at the same time collecting data on voters' ethnic origin and religion, presumably in order to target them with divisive identity politics style messages.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
If that's the case then, well... more unidentified sources, still no evidence... sounds suspiciously like they're just trying to excuse the first report by crafting convenient fictions.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I'm biased but I'd say the Greater Glasgow area is best for the highlands, several pleasant wee towns north of Glasgow that are literally less than an hour from the highlands proper. I believe cycle routes are getting more and more developed but I haven't done much being a lazy barsteward, and none at all since my bike was nicked. Pretty sure broadband would be ok in that area but it definitely drops off the farther north and west you go.
It looks like Sanofi are giving up on creating their own vaccine and will manufacture the Pfizer vaccine instead. Officially they've pushed the date of their own one back to the end of the year but I doubt it will ever see the light of day. https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1354120398938517506
It looks like Sanofi are giving up on creating their own vaccine and will manufacture the Pfizer vaccine instead. Officially they've pushed the date of their own one back to the end of the year but I doubt it will ever see the light of day. https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1354120398938517506
That's good, Sanofi is one of the major vaccine producers globally so not having their capacity used for anything was going to be a huge waste.
On topic. Brexit IS done. I totally accept this and am not agitating for Rejoin. It's imo losing (and will continue to shed) its heat as a mainstream political issue. But the social, intellectual & cultural divide it carved through the nation will, I fear, be longlasting.
Take me. I'm no Remainiac extremist or Remoaner about what happened. I voted Remain but recognized the democratic necessity to implement the result. Never held any truck with another Referendum. Always a ridiculous notion. Yet I have a new and stubborn identity - Remainer. I am still a Remainer in this sense. As defined against its opposite, Leaver. And it's such a powerful ID.
For example, thinking about moving house, the 1st thing I will check for a prospective area is how it voted in the 2016 EU Referendum. If it's Leave, and especially if it's strongly Leave, I will strike it out without a moment's further thought. Why waste time. Similarly, if I were vibrant enough to be Tinder dating, and I saw a profile which looked great except (oh no) Leaver, that would be it. Swipe left.
And something even more poignant. My son is due to get engaged soon to his sweetheart from Essex (lovely girl) and I'm delighted. But would I be quite so delighted if I had not discovered to my immense relief that she was one of the few people from her part of Essex who had voted Remain? No, I don't believe I would have been. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't have been all arsey about it, but it would have detracted from things and been both a worry and a disappointment.
I don't say this is a good thing - it isn't - but it is a thing. That's what Brexit has done to this country and its people. The economic hit, the masses of red tape, the loss of precious freedoms is only the half of it.
I think that is a fair and honest statement though for me remainer or leaver are likely to fade and be replaced with those who want to rejoin
Instead of obsessing over pointless government press conferences and journalists' predictable questions, or wasting our energy listening to the PB Hysterions who go out of their way every day to find bad 'news' to fulfil their endless need for attention, we need someone to do a decent roundup of all the very good news that is happening at the moment:
• cases falling • over 85 hospitalisation rates responding to vax • excellent data from Israel • Johnson & Johnson one-shot vax imminent • nasal sprays looking promising • cancer treatment (name forgotten) appears to work
I'd hope that some sensible source like New Scientist or the Economist are lining something up.
The day we ;passed 100,000 deaths is perhaps not the moment to hype up good news. Reflection on how we got here and the loss and grief that has been caused to so many families is more appropriate.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
Perthshire sounds right for you. It lies on the Highland line, so you can live in Highland Perthshire and be in the Highlands. It is stunningly beautiful, full of stunning mountains and lochs, very community-focused, full of all good things. Not huge on cycle paths to my knowledge but the roads aren't that busy.
The coldness and darker evenings are real though, in winter. You have to like it crisp.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I'm biased but I'd say the Greater Glasgow area is best for the highlands, several pleasant wee towns north of Glasgow that are literally less than an hour from the highlands proper. I believe cycle routes are getting more and more developed but I haven't done much being a lazy barsteward, and none at all since my bike was nicked. Pretty sure broadband would be ok in that area but it definitely drops off the farther north and west you go.
any where with a low midge count.
I'd say close to the coast, perhaps West if you are a gardener, with prevailing wind to help with midges maybe.
The place where Boris went on holiday looked good.
Or a lot of people move to the Islands to build a house. If you want to build it is much easier in open country in Scotland than England and plots are reasonable prices, but the authorities tend to be quite precious about their foursquare windows in one and half stories, at least in the country.
Large areas of Scotland still have light traffic, so road cycling is quite practical.
If it works like around here, then you want eg former pit railways or similar for cycle trails.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
If that's the case then, well... more unidentified sources, still no evidence... sounds suspiciously like they're just trying to excuse the first report by crafting convenient fictions.
It's worse than that, via Google Translate they have actually doubled down in that article:
"A high-ranking official from the Federal Ministry of Health, who had access to the current data situation, told the Handelsblatt: “It is impossible to mix up the numbers. According to the data we have so far, the effectiveness in people over 60 is less than ten percent. ""
So a high up member of the German Health ministry believes the AZ vaccine is almost completely useless in people over 60, and they have data to prove it
This is absolutely explosive, now. Very very serious.
Interesting that the Tories have been attacking "woke identity politics" while at the same time collecting data on voters' ethnic origin and religion, presumably in order to target them with divisive identity politics style messages.
No doubt they'll be tailoring a VC winner statue for every ethnicity and identity. They seemed to have dropped a bollock (as it were) for a rather large section of the population though.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I know that there are some good sections on the long distance cycle route parallel to the A9, but I don't know how much progress has been made filling in the gaps. From Edinburgh there's good links to the coast-to-coast cycle route and national route 1 to the north and south. I think the route from Glasgow to Loch Long is supposed to be good, but not certain.
You say you're not bothered by the weather, but you still might want to look at what the options are. Large East-West contrasts. Some might say that the Grampians have an optimal combination of snow days in winter and sunshine hours.
Strong recommend for living in the Moray area. Airport and Inverness City not too far away but also plenty of outdoors and the Highlands on your doorstep. I'm not entirely clear on how good the road cycling would be however. The roads are fine but maybe alot of traffic on some.
On topic. Brexit IS done. I totally accept this and am not agitating for Rejoin. It's imo losing (and will continue to shed) its heat as a mainstream political issue. But the social, intellectual & cultural divide it carved through the nation will, I fear, be longlasting.
Take me. I'm no Remainiac extremist or Remoaner about what happened. I voted Remain but recognized the democratic necessity to implement the result. Never held any truck with another Referendum. Always a ridiculous notion. Yet I have a new and stubborn identity - Remainer. I am still a Remainer in this sense. As defined against its opposite, Leaver. And it's such a powerful ID.
For example, thinking about moving house, the 1st thing I will check for a prospective area is how it voted in the 2016 EU Referendum. If it's Leave, and especially if it's strongly Leave, I will strike it out without a moment's further thought. Why waste time. Similarly, if I were vibrant enough to be Tinder dating, and I saw a profile which looked great except (oh no) Leaver, that would be it. Swipe left.
And something even more poignant. My son is due to get engaged soon to his sweetheart from Essex (lovely girl) and I'm delighted. But would I be quite so delighted if I had not discovered to my immense relief that she was one of the few people from her part of Essex who had voted Remain? No, I don't believe I would have been. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't have been all arsey about it, but it would have detracted from things and been both a worry and a disappointment.
I don't say this is a good thing - it isn't - but it is a thing. That's what Brexit has done to this country and its people. The economic hit, the masses of red tape, the loss of precious freedoms is only the half of it.
I think that is a fair and honest statement though for me remainer or leaver are likely to fade and be replaced with those who want to rejoin
What sort of timescale do you have in mind, if it's not too forward a question?
Before seeing that poll, my thinking was about a decade of trying to make the new arrangements work leading to EEA-alike, then a decade of rejoin properly or not?
If the poll in the header is right, that might be an underestimate.
Interesting that the Tories have been attacking "woke identity politics" while at the same time collecting data on voters' ethnic origin and religion, presumably in order to target them with divisive identity politics style messages.
No doubt they'll be tailoring a VC winner statue for every ethnicity and identity. They seemed to have dropped a bollock (as it were) for a rather large section of the population though.
Whatever your views on covid and lockdown, the left's attempt to call a big percentage of these deaths avoidable and down to Johnson is surely pretty disgraceful and I think it will backfire.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
If that's the case then, well... more unidentified sources, still no evidence... sounds suspiciously like they're just trying to excuse the first report by crafting convenient fictions.
It's worse than that, via Google Translate they have actually doubled down in that article:
"A high-ranking official from the Federal Ministry of Health, who had access to the current data situation, told the Handelsblatt: “It is impossible to mix up the numbers. According to the data we have so far, the effectiveness in people over 60 is less than ten percent. ""
So a high up member of the German Health ministry believes the AZ vaccine is almost completely useless in people over 60, and they have data to prove it
This is absolutely explosive, now. Very very serious.
We need someone to do a John Major and ask them to “put up, or shut up.”
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
If the Covid-19 vaccine becomes an annual thing like the flu vaccine, are we primus inter pares in future supplies or will we have to fight out all over. again?
No, the government has built a new facility which is capable of producing Adenovirus and mRNA vaccine doses in the hundreds of millions range per year. It's almost complete and because it is state owned there's not too much worry around IP sharing for production under licence.
It actually started production before the pandemic and had it come this year we'd have been ready for mass production far earlier than this time around.
Does that mean flu vaccines could be manufactured more to scale?
Giving every adult a flu vaccine would surely make flu season easier to handle. No reason every adult couldn't get one while at the pharmacy.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
AZN wouldn't have strongly denied it if they weren't confident it wasn't true. They would have just said nothing.
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
It looks like Sanofi are giving up on creating their own vaccine and will manufacture the Pfizer vaccine instead. Officially they've pushed the date of their own one back to the end of the year but I doubt it will ever see the light of day.
Reading that article, they are not actually going to manufacture the Pfizer vaccine, they'll (initially at least) just be doing the last stage of filling the vials (under sterile conditions, and at very low temperatures, this is not an easy matter). They also sound quite bullish about their own, so maybe it will still see the light of day - there will be plenty of demand a year from now for a cheap and easily-stored vaccine.
Interesting that the Tories have been attacking "woke identity politics" while at the same time collecting data on voters' ethnic origin and religion, presumably in order to target them with divisive identity politics style messages.
No doubt they'll be tailoring a VC winner statue for every ethnicity and identity. They seemed to have dropped a bollock (as it were) for a rather large section of the population though.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I'm biased but I'd say the Greater Glasgow area is best for the highlands, several pleasant wee towns north of Glasgow that are literally less than an hour from the highlands proper. I believe cycle routes are getting more and more developed but I haven't done much being a lazy barsteward, and none at all since my bike was nicked. Pretty sure broadband would be ok in that area but it definitely drops off the farther north and west you go.
any where with a low midge count.
I'd say close to the coast, perhaps West if you are a gardener, with prevailing wind to help with midges maybe.
The place where Boris went on holiday looked good.
Or a lot of people move to the Islands to build a house. If you want to build it is much easier in open country in Scotland than England and plots are reasonable prices, but the authorities tend to be quite precious about their foursquare windows in one and half stories, at least in the country.
Large areas of Scotland still have light traffic, so road cycling is quite practical.
If it works like around here, then you want eg former pit railways or similar for cycle trails.
Perth strikes me as lovely. Big enough to be interesting, small enough to escape. Close to the Highlands and close enough to the central belt. It is a lovely medium sized town. Top choice for me if I moved above the border.
Interesting that the Tories have been attacking "woke identity politics" while at the same time collecting data on voters' ethnic origin and religion, presumably in order to target them with divisive identity politics style messages.
No doubt they'll be tailoring a VC winner statue for every ethnicity and identity. They seemed to have dropped a bollock (as it were) for a rather large section of the population though.
Huge drop off in cases again today, lockdown is definitely making a difference and as someone mentioned yesterday, I think there's a positive effect of doctors and nurses being mostly immunised at this stage. Hopefully that's cutting transmission rates in hospitals significantly and is partly why the rate of contraction in the virus is accelerating.
On topic. Brexit IS done. I totally accept this and am not agitating for Rejoin. It's imo losing (and will continue to shed) its heat as a mainstream political issue. But the social, intellectual & cultural divide it carved through the nation will, I fear, be longlasting.
Take me. I'm no Remainiac extremist or Remoaner about what happened. I voted Remain but recognized the democratic necessity to implement the result. Never held any truck with another Referendum. Always a ridiculous notion. Yet I have a new and stubborn identity - Remainer. I am still a Remainer in this sense. As defined against its opposite, Leaver. And it's such a powerful ID.
For example, thinking about moving house, the 1st thing I will check for a prospective area is how it voted in the 2016 EU Referendum. If it's Leave, and especially if it's strongly Leave, I will strike it out without a moment's further thought. Why waste time. Similarly, if I were vibrant enough to be Tinder dating, and I saw a profile which looked great except (oh no) Leaver, that would be it. Swipe left.
And something even more poignant. My son is due to get engaged soon to his sweetheart from Essex (lovely girl) and I'm delighted. But would I be quite so delighted if I had not discovered to my immense relief that she was one of the few people from her part of Essex who had voted Remain? No, I don't believe I would have been. Don't get me wrong, I wouldn't have been all arsey about it, but it would have detracted from things and been both a worry and a disappointment.
I don't say this is a good thing - it isn't - but it is a thing. That's what Brexit has done to this country and its people. The economic hit, the masses of red tape, the loss of precious freedoms is only the half of it.
I think that is a fair and honest statement though for me remainer or leaver are likely to fade and be replaced with those who want to rejoin
What sort of timescale do you have in mind, if it's not too forward a question?
Before seeing that poll, my thinking was about a decade of trying to make the new arrangements work leading to EEA-alike, then a decade of rejoin properly or not?
If the poll in the header is right, that might be an underestimate.
I would expect it to fade by the next GE especially as Starmer had said he has no intention of reopening the debate
I expect Indyref2 is far more likely to take the bandwidth over the next 2 to 3 years
Do you know why the drop for Sunday and Monday? i could understand a weekend drop but the Saturday figures are high. Are the numbers all "for previous day" or something?
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I'm biased but I'd say the Greater Glasgow area is best for the highlands, several pleasant wee towns north of Glasgow that are literally less than an hour from the highlands proper. I believe cycle routes are getting more and more developed but I haven't done much being a lazy barsteward, and none at all since my bike was nicked. Pretty sure broadband would be ok in that area but it definitely drops off the farther north and west you go.
any where with a low midge count.
I'd say close to the coast, perhaps West if you are a gardener, with prevailing wind to help with midges maybe.
The place where Boris went on holiday looked good.
Or a lot of people move to the Islands to build a house. If you want to build it is much easier in open country in Scotland than England and plots are reasonable prices, but the authorities tend to be quite precious about their foursquare windows in one and half stories, at least in the country.
Large areas of Scotland still have light traffic, so road cycling is quite practical.
If it works like around here, then you want eg former pit railways or similar for cycle trails.
Perth strikes me as lovely. Big enough to be interesting, small enough to escape. Close to the Highlands and close enough to the central belt. It is a lovely medium sized town. Top choice for me if I moved above the border.
Pitlochry would be a better choice in that region of Scotland
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
If the Covid-19 vaccine becomes an annual thing like the flu vaccine, are we primus inter pares in future supplies or will we have to fight out all over. again?
No, the government has built a new facility which is capable of producing Adenovirus and mRNA vaccine doses in the hundreds of millions range per year. It's almost complete and because it is state owned there's not too much worry around IP sharing for production under licence.
It actually started production before the pandemic and had it come this year we'd have been ready for mass production far earlier than this time around.
Does that mean flu vaccines could be manufactured more to scale?
Giving every adult a flu vaccine would surely make flu season easier to handle. No reason every adult couldn't get one while at the pharmacy.
What's more likely to happen is that a combination of lazy, stupid and pig-headed individuals won't have the bloody vaccines, with the consequence that we have a cumulative flu and covid spike every year and the whole population ends up being forced to wear masks every Winter for the rest of time to compensate.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I'm biased but I'd say the Greater Glasgow area is best for the highlands, several pleasant wee towns north of Glasgow that are literally less than an hour from the highlands proper. I believe cycle routes are getting more and more developed but I haven't done much being a lazy barsteward, and none at all since my bike was nicked. Pretty sure broadband would be ok in that area but it definitely drops off the farther north and west you go.
any where with a low midge count.
I'd say close to the coast, perhaps West if you are a gardener, with prevailing wind to help with midges maybe.
The place where Boris went on holiday looked good.
Or a lot of people move to the Islands to build a house. If you want to build it is much easier in open country in Scotland than England and plots are reasonable prices, but the authorities tend to be quite precious about their foursquare windows in one and half stories, at least in the country.
Large areas of Scotland still have light traffic, so road cycling is quite practical.
If it works like around here, then you want eg former pit railways or similar for cycle trails.
Perth strikes me as lovely. Big enough to be interesting, small enough to escape. Close to the Highlands and close enough to the central belt. It is a lovely medium sized town. Top choice for me if I moved above the border.
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
Where are the Germans getting their data from? It’s not like they’ve been using it themselves for a couple of months.
Whatever your views on covid and lockdown, the left's attempt to call a big percentage of these deaths avoidable and down to Johnson is surely pretty disgraceful and I think it will backfire.
But it is true that a big percentage of the deaths that have occurred were avoidable. And it is also true that had Johnson acted differently at various times over the past year many of them would have been avoided. He deserves all the opprobrium that is coming his way. Covid will haunt him for the rest of his life, just as Iraq haunts Blair. The judgement of history will be harsh, and rightly so.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
If that's the case then, well... more unidentified sources, still no evidence... sounds suspiciously like they're just trying to excuse the first report by crafting convenient fictions.
It's worse than that, via Google Translate they have actually doubled down in that article:
"A high-ranking official from the Federal Ministry of Health, who had access to the current data situation, told the Handelsblatt: “It is impossible to mix up the numbers. According to the data we have so far, the effectiveness in people over 60 is less than ten percent. ""
So a high up member of the German Health ministry believes the AZ vaccine is almost completely useless in people over 60, and they have data to prove it
This is absolutely explosive, now. Very very serious.
"Beamter" usually means a career civil servant rather than a politician as well.
Difficult to see what the mechanism for such a large difference between age groups should be though.
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
We are back where we were last night. AZ have not fucked up. Nor have the MHRA. There will be egg on faces soon, but not in the UK.
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I'm biased but I'd say the Greater Glasgow area is best for the highlands, several pleasant wee towns north of Glasgow that are literally less than an hour from the highlands proper. I believe cycle routes are getting more and more developed but I haven't done much being a lazy barsteward, and none at all since my bike was nicked. Pretty sure broadband would be ok in that area but it definitely drops off the farther north and west you go.
any where with a low midge count.
I'd say close to the coast, perhaps West if you are a gardener, with prevailing wind to help with midges maybe.
The place where Boris went on holiday looked good.
Or a lot of people move to the Islands to build a house. If you want to build it is much easier in open country in Scotland than England and plots are reasonable prices, but the authorities tend to be quite precious about their foursquare windows in one and half stories, at least in the country.
Large areas of Scotland still have light traffic, so road cycling is quite practical.
If it works like around here, then you want eg former pit railways or similar for cycle trails.
Perth strikes me as lovely. Big enough to be interesting, small enough to escape. Close to the Highlands and close enough to the central belt. It is a lovely medium sized town. Top choice for me if I moved above the border.
Pitlochry would be a better choice in that region of Scotland
Inverness might be worth a look - though a bit big and horribly touristy in high summer.
Re cycle paths, this may be useful at least for the official skeleton
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
Where are the Germans getting their data from? It’s not like they’ve been using it themselves for a couple of months.
This sounds absurd but it might mean we have a captive supply of an effective vaccine no one else wants. Your average Brit may be as likely to swallow fake news as anyone else in the world but he won't abide some German rag slagging off OUR vaccine.
Whatever your views on covid and lockdown, the left's attempt to call a big percentage of these deaths avoidable and down to Johnson is surely pretty disgraceful and I think it will backfire.
But it is true that a big percentage of the deaths that have occurred were avoidable. And it is also true that had Johnson acted differently at various times over the past year many of them would have been avoided. He deserves all the opprobrium that is coming his way. Covid will haunt him for the rest of his life, just as Iraq haunts Blair. The judgement of history will be harsh, and rightly so.
To a limited extent yes.
People also need to take responsibility for their own actions and how their own actions affect others.
Did Johnson compel teenagers to go to house parties? Did Johnson compel young adults to go to raves? Did Johnson compel older adults to go to pub lock ins? Did Johnson compel influencers to go to Dubai for 'work'? Did Johnson compel Piers Moron to go overseas from Tier 3? Did Johnson compel Sky's News team to go on an illegal night out?
Everyone has their role to play in this. You can't outsource your own responsibility to someone else.
As for history, if the UK gets out of this first due to a stunning vaccine success then he could and should be remembered as the PM who made that possible. Despite Sky, Piers Moron, influencers and yes even Cummings.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
Where are the Germans getting their data from? It’s not like they’ve been using it themselves for a couple of months.
This sounds absurd but it might mean we have a captive supply of an effective vaccine no one else wants. Your average Brit may be as likely to swallow fake news as anyone else in the world but he won't abide some German rag slagging off OUR vaccine.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
I thought the German health ministry had already made a statement about this?
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
The Hitler Diaries turned out to be one journalist who had gone loopy. And also corrupt. The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked. The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
Thanks to Malmesbury for the daily figures, I find them useful and interesting.
Just to say that I agree with this. Quick question for @Malmesbury if I may - what time period are you using to calculate the R rate? (I assume it's a straightforward Case(t) / Case(t-X) for some X, but if it is more detailed that would also be interesting.)
Whatever your views on covid and lockdown, the left's attempt to call a big percentage of these deaths avoidable and down to Johnson is surely pretty disgraceful and I think it will backfire.
But it is true that a big percentage of the deaths that have occurred were avoidable. And it is also true that had Johnson acted differently at various times over the past year many of them would have been avoided. He deserves all the opprobrium that is coming his way. Covid will haunt him for the rest of his life, just as Iraq haunts Blair. The judgement of history will be harsh, and rightly so.
To a limited extent yes.
People also need to take responsibility for their own actions and how their own actions affect others.
Did Johnson compel teenagers to go to house parties? Did Johnson compel young adults to go to raves? Did Johnson compel older adults to go to pub lock ins? Did Johnson compel influencers to go to Dubai for 'work'? Did Johnson compel Piers Moron to go overseas from Tier 3? Did Johnson compel Sky's News team to go on an illegal night out?
Everyone has their role to play in this. You can't outsource your own responsibility to someone else.
As for history, if the UK gets out of this first due to a stunning vaccine success then he could and should be remembered as the PM who made that possible. Despite Sky, Piers Moron, influencers and yes even Cummings.
Hmm, I'm not sure about that. I do agree that whatever the ineptitude, or not, of government, people are still responsible for their own actions and have chosen to take risky actions which they could have avoided even when they were permissable, let alone when they were not. And I agree that it does appear we've had a stunning vaccine success and the government cannot be blamed for every bad thing that happens but get zero credit when good things happen.
However, and although there will be complex factors around the particularities of the UK behind at least some of it, there does still seem a very likely outcome that the UK's deaths will be among the highest in the world, and I don't think that success, even stunning success, in one area will prevent remembrance of the government overseeing the whole picture, which may well still end up looking very bad.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
I thought the German health ministry had already made a statement about this?
They did, but this is a new article from Handelsblatt, tripling down on their claim, quite explicitly. No retraction. AZ is "less than 10% effective in over 60s" (so the situation is even worse than yesterday - allegedly). And this comes from top German Health officials, who have data to prove it - supposedly
“The #AstraZeneca scandal suggests a very ugly conflict is coming between the EU & UK on #vaccine access.
Imagine if every country in Europe had ordered its own vaccines. Conflicts would be happening across the continent.
This is what EU joint procurement was designed to avoid.”
This is an interesting take by Dave Keating. Joint procurement PREVENTS WAR
I doubt he means armed conflict, but someone doing some pretty cold calculation in a what if scenario down the line may be able to count the cost of whether delays caused by joint procurement were worth it to avoid squabbles between EU nations. Not that it does seem the case that no one has gone around it.
Interesting that the Tories have been attacking "woke identity politics" while at the same time collecting data on voters' ethnic origin and religion, presumably in order to target them with divisive identity politics style messages.
No doubt they'll be tailoring a VC winner statue for every ethnicity and identity. They seemed to have dropped a bollock (as it were) for a rather large section of the population though.
It would be interesting to have a breakdown by gender, race and BMI. I would imagination a healthy white female under the age of 45 has effectively zero chance of dying from Covid.
Funnily enough he doesn’t mention that 1) the U.K. agreed a deal with AstraZeneca 3 months before the EU did, 2) The U.K. has spent 7 times more per capita securing supply than the EU 3) the U.K. also had vaccine supply shortfall at start up and 4) the EMA has still yet to approve the vaccine.
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
I think the journalists at Handelsblatt are just trying to cover themselves. Their new story tries to use a Bild article which repeated their original claim as corroboration.
Interesting that the Tories have been attacking "woke identity politics" while at the same time collecting data on voters' ethnic origin and religion, presumably in order to target them with divisive identity politics style messages.
No doubt they'll be tailoring a VC winner statue for every ethnicity and identity. They seemed to have dropped a bollock (as it were) for a rather large section of the population though.
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
I think the journalists at Handelsblatt are just trying to cover themselves. Their new story tries to use a Bild article which repeated their original claim as corroboration.
Funnily enough he doesn’t mention that 1) the U.K. agreed a deal with AstraZeneca 3 months before the EU did, 2) The U.K. has spent 7 times more per capita securing supply than the EU 3) the U.K. also had vaccine supply shortfall at start up and 4) the EMA has still yet to approve the vaccine.
He's drawing the wrong lesson. It's not the UK that needed to join the EU scheme, but the EU needed to follow us, in terms of investment, priming the pump, onshoring etc.
Handelsblatt have just published a follow up which doesn't retract their claim but instead muddies the waters by saying that it is an ongoing 'controversy' and cites another unnamed source as saying the effectiveness for older people is small.
Co-authored again by Wachinski, who still has his defence of yesterday's story up on the top of his twitter with no new updates.
Reminds me of the initial denials for this one
Yes, it is possible that Wachinski (and friends) have realised that their mistake is so huge, if they admit it, thy will lose their jobs, and possibly get sued, and maybe even go to jail?
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
The Hitler Diaries turned out to be one journalist who had gone loopy. And also corrupt. The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked. The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
Thankfully in the 21st century people are more vigorous about checking sources before sharing, or copying and pasting other people's material so that could never happen again (!)
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Hand. Telsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
I think the journalists at Handelsblatt are just trying to cover themselves. Their new story tries to use a Bild article which repeated their original claim as corroboration.
If that is true (and I hope it is for the sake of the world) then they will soon have to give us the names of the officials doing the briefing, who will have to show the "data", and if they can't they are finished. This story is going to explode
Surely there's an arguement now for Pfizer and AZN et al licensing other companies in other countries to manufacture the vaccination closer to where it's needed? Who makes the vaccine for the USA?
Whatever your views on covid and lockdown, the left's attempt to call a big percentage of these deaths avoidable and down to Johnson is surely pretty disgraceful and I think it will backfire.
But it is true that a big percentage of the deaths that have occurred were avoidable. And it is also true that had Johnson acted differently at various times over the past year many of them would have been avoided. He deserves all the opprobrium that is coming his way. Covid will haunt him for the rest of his life, just as Iraq haunts Blair. The judgement of history will be harsh, and rightly so.
To a limited extent yes.
People also need to take responsibility for their own actions and how their own actions affect others.
Did Johnson compel teenagers to go to house parties? Did Johnson compel young adults to go to raves? Did Johnson compel older adults to go to pub lock ins? Did Johnson compel influencers to go to Dubai for 'work'? Did Johnson compel Piers Moron to go overseas from Tier 3? Did Johnson compel Sky's News team to go on an illegal night out?
Everyone has their role to play in this. You can't outsource your own responsibility to someone else.
As for history, if the UK gets out of this first due to a stunning vaccine success then he could and should be remembered as the PM who made that possible. Despite Sky, Piers Moron, influencers and yes even Cummings.
Teenagers at house parties and the other things you list were, of course, irresponsible. But they did not cause many, if any, of the excess deaths. Most transmission of the virus occurred in care homes, hospitals and, latterly, schools. And much of this arose because of incompetence and dithering by the government in general and Johnson in particular.
It is difficult to exaggerate the enormity of what Handelsblatt are STILL alleging.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Except the German Health Ministry are saying they don't.
I don't believe Handelsblatt - a respected paper - would KEEP repeating this stuff if someone at the German Health Ministry was NOT feeding them this info.
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
I think the journalists at Handelsblatt are just trying to cover themselves. Their new story tries to use a Bild article which repeated their original claim as corroboration.
Instead of obsessing over pointless government press conferences and journalists' predictable questions, or wasting our energy listening to the PB Hysterions who go out of their way every day to find bad 'news' to fulfil their endless need for attention, we need someone to do a decent roundup of all the very good news that is happening at the moment:
• cases falling • over 85 hospitalisation rates responding to vax • excellent data from Israel • Johnson & Johnson one-shot vax imminent • nasal sprays looking promising • cancer treatment (name forgotten) appears to work
I'd hope that some sensible source like New Scientist or the Economist are lining something up.
The day we ;passed 100,000 deaths is perhaps not the moment to hype up good news. Reflection on how we got here and the loss and grief that has been caused to so many families is more appropriate.
I'm not hyping anything up, and I completely disagree.
What people need more than ever is solutions and hope – there are lots of interesting developments in this regard – yet misery and screeching hysteria dominate the discourse.
Presumably they're going to have to make sure that the 2,000 VC winners weren't at all racist before they build their statues?
What I find astonishing is that thewy were so desperate to have a dogwhistle for the Brexity voters that they didn't; stop to consider that the GC holders woiuld be just as worthy of consideration as the VC holders.
Thanks to Malmesbury for the daily figures, I find them useful and interesting.
Just to say that I agree with this. Quick question for @Malmesbury if I may - what time period are you using to calculate the R rate? (I assume it's a straightforward Case(t) / Case(t-X) for some X, but if it is more detailed that would also be interesting.)
I'm going to move to Scotland. Decision made today. I don't have any particular region in mind, though, so would love your input on locations to help me narrow things down.
Easy access to the highlands is a must, so I'm ruling out Borders/Dumfries/Ayrshire. I like to cycle a bit, so if there's any place with lots of long-distance cycle paths that would be great. Things like segregated cycle ways next to dual carriageways are fine but I don't want to be forced to wobble along the kerb of a narrow 60mph road. I don't really need much access to cities since I work from home and I'm more into books than theatre. I'm fine with the wind and rain and dark winters and midges. Connectivity in terms of broadband is important, and in terms of parcel delivery without having to pay extra is a nice to have (not sure if that is an issue any more?)
Anything else I haven't mentioned that I should be thinking about?
I'm biased but I'd say the Greater Glasgow area is best for the highlands, several pleasant wee towns north of Glasgow that are literally less than an hour from the highlands proper. I believe cycle routes are getting more and more developed but I haven't done much being a lazy barsteward, and none at all since my bike was nicked. Pretty sure broadband would be ok in that area but it definitely drops off the farther north and west you go.
any where with a low midge count.
I'd say close to the coast, perhaps West if you are a gardener, with prevailing wind to help with midges maybe.
The place where Boris went on holiday looked good.
Or a lot of people move to the Islands to build a house. If you want to build it is much easier in open country in Scotland than England and plots are reasonable prices, but the authorities tend to be quite precious about their foursquare windows in one and half stories, at least in the country.
Large areas of Scotland still have light traffic, so road cycling is quite practical.
If it works like around here, then you want eg former pit railways or similar for cycle trails.
Perth strikes me as lovely. Big enough to be interesting, small enough to escape. Close to the Highlands and close enough to the central belt. It is a lovely medium sized town. Top choice for me if I moved above the border.
Pitlochry would be a better choice in that region of Scotland
Inverness might be worth a look - though a bit big and horribly touristy in high summer.
Re cycle paths, this may be useful at least for the official skeleton
I would raise a bit of a red flag on Sustrans - their standards are inconsistent, and they are given to barriers that make you get off. If you rely on them - go and check before you finally decide.
One suggestion, ask on a cycling forum which will get you good detailed feedback from people in the area.
This is why Covid-19 won't be as serious in poor countries, because they have far fewer older people.
Two generations ago, COVID might have passed through the world unnoticed. One generation barely noticed.
The cohort that it affects most severely hardly existed before, both in terms of age and disability. Most of those people were simply not around for COVID to harvest. A brutal observation but true.
Comments
I keep on having flashbacks to the Lancet, Private Eye, the Daily Mail et al stating as fact MMR causes autism.
I have never seen any sensible reason to rush to be in with the crowd just for the sake of it.
The EU has not managed the vaccine roll out particularly well. But you and I may look at that differently, for me it is a stain upon the UK that we did not join with them and bring our expertise to that discussion to make the roll out across the continent of Europe better. That way we could have bought the covid crisis in the region under control more quickly, protected the economy better and ultimately saved lives.
The UK decided that it wanted to go it alone and that has caused tensions which will have distracted from the main objective. Germany have taken a different view and will be suffering short term pain as a result. But ultimately they will see the benefits of taking the longer term perspective.
The UK has become the masters of seeking to win the battles but failing to realise that we have lost the war.
It actually started production before the pandemic and had it come this year we'd have been ready for mass production far earlier than this time around.
• cases falling
• over 85 hospitalisation rates responding to vax
• excellent data from Israel
• Johnson & Johnson one-shot vax imminent
• nasal sprays looking promising
• cancer treatment (name forgotten) appears to work
I'd hope that some sensible source like New Scientist or the Economist are lining something up.
https://twitter.com/Peston/status/1354021982061420545
https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/deutschland/pandemiebekaempfung-kontroverse-ueber-impfstoff-von-astra-zeneca-haelt-an/26854288.html
Have a look at: http://opencyclemap.org/
There are some good bookshops in Edinburgh, such as: https://goldenharebooks.com/
You say you're not bothered by the weather, but you still might want to look at what the options are. Large East-West contrasts. Some might say that the Grampians have an optimal combination of snow days in winter and sunshine hours.
https://www.metoffice.gov.uk/research/climate/maps-and-data/uk-climate-averages/gcvwqum6h
Everything Osborne says in his Evening Standard article could have been said of Gaitskell in early 1961 - and indeed of Thatcher at the end of 1975. Labour has been largely invisible over the last month - though I doubt there is much they can do about that in the context of the sharp deterioration on the Covid front. As in wartime, party politics has largely gone into abeyance for the duration. People are simply not receptive to it - other than when obvious scandals occur as with Cummings last Spring and also the Care Home deaths. Both caused the Government discomfort but overall this scenario is likely to be benefitting the Government as Opposition voices are largely frozen out.
Trouble is, I've seen this story being spread by (especially FBPE) Brits on twitter. If this leads to a lower uptake of vaccines in this country I won't be celebrating getting my vaccine a bit quicker, I'll be lamenting the extra deaths these Idioten have caused.
Mr Hysteria pleads for calm and measure
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jan/26/conservative-party-illegally-collected-data-on-ethnicity-of-10m-voters-mps-told
https://twitter.com/BFMTV/status/1354120398938517506
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9187423/Scientists-fury-incorrect-claim-Oxford-AstraZeneca-Covid-vaccine-8-effective.html
The coldness and darker evenings are real though, in winter.
The place where Boris went on holiday looked good.
Or a lot of people move to the Islands to build a house. If you want to build it is much easier in open country in Scotland than England and plots are reasonable prices, but the authorities tend to be quite precious about their foursquare windows in one and half stories, at least in the country.
Large areas of Scotland still have light traffic, so road cycling is quite practical.
If it works like around here, then you want eg former pit railways or similar for cycle trails.
"A high-ranking official from the Federal Ministry of Health, who had access to the current data situation, told the Handelsblatt: “It is impossible to mix up the numbers. According to the data we have so far, the effectiveness in people over 60 is less than ten percent. ""
So a high up member of the German Health ministry believes the AZ vaccine is almost completely useless in people over 60, and they have data to prove it
This is absolutely explosive, now. Very very serious.
https://twitter.com/ScotNational/status/1354025541192491008?s=20
Before seeing that poll, my thinking was about a decade of trying to make the new arrangements work leading to EEA-alike, then a decade of rejoin properly or not?
If the poll in the header is right, that might be an underestimate.
Arguably the most important vaccine in the world has no virtually no effect on the over 60s.
This might explain why they have not retracted or apologised. They believe it is true, because they are being told this by the German Health Ministry, who claim to have data to prove it
Giving every adult a flu vaccine would surely make flu season easier to handle. No reason every adult couldn't get one while at the pharmacy.
I expect Indyref2 is far more likely to take the bandwidth over the next 2 to 3 years
They know it is potentially career-ending: it could cause global anti-vaxxing.
So who is lying? The German politicians? Or have Astra Zeneca fucked up?
Of the 100.000 deaths just 1000 were under 45
Oh, sorry - wrong Perth!
Difficult to see what the mechanism for such a large difference between age groups should be though.
Re cycle paths, this may be useful at least for the official skeleton
https://www.sustrans.org.uk/national-cycle-network/the-national-cycle-network-in-scotland/
Imagine if every country in Europe had ordered its own vaccines. Conflicts would be happening across the continent.
This is what EU joint procurement was designed to avoid.”
This is an interesting take by Dave Keating. Joint procurement PREVENTS WAR
People also need to take responsibility for their own actions and how their own actions affect others.
Did Johnson compel teenagers to go to house parties?
Did Johnson compel young adults to go to raves?
Did Johnson compel older adults to go to pub lock ins?
Did Johnson compel influencers to go to Dubai for 'work'?
Did Johnson compel Piers Moron to go overseas from Tier 3?
Did Johnson compel Sky's News team to go on an illegal night out?
Everyone has their role to play in this. You can't outsource your own responsibility to someone else.
As for history, if the UK gets out of this first due to a stunning vaccine success then he could and should be remembered as the PM who made that possible. Despite Sky, Piers Moron, influencers and yes even Cummings.
So the only choice (to save their skins) is to brazen it out, yet, still, without providing facts and evidence.
The German Health Ministry needs to make a detailed statement, either confirming or refuting all this: completely.
Twitter is once again full of oldsters panicking that their vaccinations are useless. What a gigantic mess
"Germany ‘violates’ EU joint vaccine scheme by buying 30 million extra doses
Berlin had promoted pact that no members of the bloc would strike separate deals to secure jabs"https://www.theweek.co.uk/951628/germany-buy-30-million-vaccine-jabs-outside-eu-scheme
The Tailwind fiasco was CNN relying on a single journalist who said it had all been double checked.
The Bush National Guard records thing relied on a small group of journalists who did the same...
However, and although there will be complex factors around the particularities of the UK behind at least some of it, there does still seem a very likely outcome that the UK's deaths will be among the highest in the world, and I don't think that success, even stunning success, in one area will prevent remembrance of the government overseeing the whole picture, which may well still end up looking very bad.
Kohavi - is IDF Chief of staff
https://twitter.com/AuroraIntel/status/1354106414080417796
Careers will definitely end now. Either way
https://www.theguardian.com/technology/2021/jan/26/conservative-party-illegally-collected-data-on-ethnicity-of-10m-voters-mps-told
https://twitter.com/DaveKeating/status/1354125244739551241?s=20
This is a disease that preys on the old and infirm.
https://twitter.com/megtirrell/status/1354041623420809217
What people need more than ever is solutions and hope – there are lots of interesting developments in this regard – yet misery and screeching hysteria dominate the discourse.
One suggestion, ask on a cycling forum which will get you good detailed feedback from people in the area.
Cycling UK forum is good to catch a cross-section.
https://forum.cyclinguk.org/
Then FB groups are good for the city / area.
The cohort that it affects most severely hardly existed before, both in terms of age and disability. Most of those people were simply not around for COVID to harvest. A brutal observation but true.