politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » On the Miliband ratings it is the views of the 2010 LD to L

BobaFett said:

ToryJim said:

BobaFett said:

MarqueeMark said:

BobaFett said:

The one time I met Ed, years ago, I didn't find him odd at all. He came across as a perfectly normal bloke. I simply don't recognise his public image, which suggests he has a problem projecting his self rather than being "odd" per se.

Or, just maybe, you have a problem spotting "odd"?

Well not really. I met tons of people in my line of work, some of them are distinctly odd! He just came across as a genuinely nice guy - i suspect many of those who deride him as odd have never actually met him.

Public people often have a split persona, the nicest public figures are often utter shits in private and vice versa

Quite. That was my original point. A Labour MP once told me that Michael Howard was the nicest guy in the Commons - you'd never guess it from the way he was portrayed in the media and by his so-called colleagues in the Tory party. Who can forget Widdicombe's disgraceful attack on him?

Most politicians are pleasant in private and more similar to each other than any of them (us) would like to admit. The press likes to magnify differences of any kind (appearance, personality and indeed policy) to make an entertaining theme. The impact is blunted by the fact that the voters correctly take it all with a punch of salt.

We've been here before - at the last election, many posters on the forum thought that the Conservatives would win easily because Brown was so unpopular. The effect was much less than they expected - Labour was exhausted and on the way out anyway, but you just occasionally met someone who was pro-Labour but not voting for us because of Brown. At the moment, as Mike notes, the Red Liberals actually rather like Ed, and traditional Labour voters remain, by and large, traditional Labour voters. The main issue is turnout, but that's an issue for the Tories as well.

antifrank said:

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Jim, is it the William Tell Overture?

Alas no, a song by The Bloodhound Gang

Oddly, I was thinking about that ensemble only this morning in the bath. They had one of the best album titles ever, but when transferring it to itunes, the CD had 99 tracks, which was a real chore.

Hooray for [moderated]?

TheScreamingEagles said:

And curses to you all for putting "bad touch" in my head this morning.

An awesome, funny song / video. One of my faves.

MikeSmithson said:

Lord Ashcroft LD-CON battlegrounds poll with overall sample of 17k being published at 11am. It looks as though 17 seats have been polled.

Wonder if... Yeovil will be in it !

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Lord Ashcroft LD-CON battlegrounds poll with overall sample of 17k being published at 11am. It looks as though 17 seats have been polled.

Wonder if... Yeovil will be in it !

Wells should be.

ToryJim said:

Just seen more details on the Labour proposals. The fact that in essence they want to say to richer parents that they are the welfare state for their kids is going to go down like a cup of cold sick. Think this will get shredded from both sides.

And also they are infantalising kids of 18: they should be looking forward to the rest of their life, not relying on their parents.

It's actually the first 3 years (or perhaps even up to, say, 24) where I don't have an issue with non-contributory support. After about then there should be an increasing contributory element.

Slackbladder said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Lord Ashcroft LD-CON battlegrounds poll with overall sample of 17k being published at 11am. It looks as though 17 seats have been polled.

Wonder if... Yeovil will be in it !

Wells should be.

Isn't Wells almost a forgone conclusion - lets put it this way if Wells fails to go blue come GE night then its going to be a shocker of a night for Dave. Mind you Solihull failed to fall in 2010 so I'm not tempted by the 2-5.

I read earlier somebody suggesting Burnham should be next Labour leader, I think that would be the most stupid choice possible. The choice not to move Burnham out of Health showed Miliband at his weakest and was a total gift to Hunt in Labour's strongest department. Hunt uses Stafford at every opportunity. Stafford will hang around Burnham forever.

Hillsborough was mentioned as well, I will say more after the inquest but the composition of that panel and some of the conclusions I have large questions about.

As for future Labour leaders, nobody on their current team leaps out but they are so controlled to follow the collective line, real vision is hard to show.

I strongly believe Labour needs to break free of the strong Union grip that in my opinion has constrained Miliband, it needs to become the party friendly to Small Business, if they don't Osborne might. Rachel Reeves seems quite bold maybe she can be the one.

At present Balls is by far the best politician they have, he has his clear faults but his work ripping apart that 2012 budget gave Ed a huge opening to build on. Largely he seems to have wasted it.

Pulpstar said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

I think Lord A might have polled Sheffield Hallam.

Popcorn time.

If Clegg isn't named then Labour will be ahead. For sure. If Clegg is named I'd guess the Lib Dems will be.

Charles said:

ToryJim said:

Just seen more details on the Labour proposals. The fact that in essence they want to say to richer parents that they are the welfare state for their kids is going to go down like a cup of cold sick. Think this will get shredded from both sides.

And also they are infantalising kids of 18: they should be looking forward to the rest of their life, not relying on their parents.

It's actually the first 3 years (or perhaps even up to, say, 24) where I don't have an issue with non-contributory support. After about then there should be an increasing contributory element.

My opinion is once you're 18, you are separate as a person from your parents. I see no justification for means testing on the basis of your parents income after than point.

Either you're an independent adult, or you aren't.

macisback said:

it needs to become the party friendly to Small Business.

That was a theme in yesterdays CPS event.

http://www.cps.org.uk/liberty/

They launched a new policy pamphlet that advocates no corporation tax for small businesses.

http://www.cps.org.uk/publications/reports/the-road-from-serfdom/

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?

It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.

Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.

Flatulent dog in a lift... LidLab switchers love their pets.

Pulpstar said:

I hope candidates are named in the Ashcroft poll - a quick flick through http://www.conservatives.com/OurTeam/Prospective_Parliamentary_Candidates.aspx?by=constituency&letter=T reveals that PPCs have been chosen in alot of LD-Con marginals.

Lewes, St Ives, Wells, Solihull, St Austell & Newquay etc

I don't think Lewes counts as a marginal!

The Conservative PPC, Maria Caulfield, is excellent and she is working very hard; I have talked to her at length, and I think she will do very well in increasing the Conservative vote in Lewes. All the same, it would take one hell of an earthquake to displace Norman Baker - he has a very strong personal vote, and in any case Lewes is quite a LibDemmy kind of place (lots of wholefood shops!). I expect an easy LibDem hold, substantially reduced majority.

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?

It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.

Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.

I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Flatulent dog in a lift... LidLab switchers love their pets.

Oi, dont mention Liberal and Liberal Democrats and dogs

Rinka the dog is still a sore point for them.

OldKingCole said:

I’m not sure if I ought to post this, since no-one’s mention the IndyRef this morning (AFAIK) but a friend has just returned from the SW Highlands and reports seeing plenty of “Yes" posters, but no "No”s.
I drove up to the Central Belt and back about 10 days ago and saw but one poster: Yes!

One of the recent Indy polls (Survation possibly?) did a regional breakdown, and I believe SW Highlands/Argyll & Bute along with Glasgow & NE were the regions with Yes ahead. Slightly odd since we're told that Trident jobs are supposed to be such a deciding factor.

Pulpstar said:

Slackbladder said:

Pulpstar said:

MikeSmithson said:

Lord Ashcroft LD-CON battlegrounds poll with overall sample of 17k being published at 11am. It looks as though 17 seats have been polled.

Wonder if... Yeovil will be in it !

Wells should be.

Isn't Wells almost a forgone conclusion - lets put it this way if Wells fails to go blue come GE night then its going to be a shocker of a night for Dave. .

Oh I DO hope so!

My tips for today, yesterday was yet another profitable day.

Côte d'Ivoire to defeat Colombia, Uruguay to defeat England and Greece to defeat Japan.

Once the teams are announced, I'll be posting some FGS tips for the England v Uruguay match, Publicity Shy Paddy Power have some decent money back specials if Uruguay win.

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?

It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.

Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.

I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.

Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.

I love the 'actually' indignation in that post....

The Smithson (Junior) LibDem Eleven

OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.

Twickenham
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Cambridge
10% Labour Gain
14% Labour Gain

Eastleigh
10% UKIP or Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Portsmouth South
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Orkney & Shetland
10% LibDem Hold
14% LibDem Hold

Berwick upon Tweed
10% Conservative Gain
14% Conservative Gain

Yeovil
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Sheffield Hallam
10% LibDem Hold
14% LibDem Hold

Hornsey & Wood Green
10% Labour Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Inverness, etc
10% SNP Gain
14% SNP Gain

Sutton & Cheam
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/10910863/David-Cameron-Islamic-extremists-like-fascists-must-not-be-tolerated-at-any-level.html

Ten years too late, but finally some talk of draining the swamp. Let's now see it followed up by action please. The UK is a laughing stock when it comes to dealing with extreme Islamists. Closing the roads in Finsbury Park so that hook handed idiot could hate preach is something that I will never forget. It's time to deport/imprison these people and stamp out hate preachers.

rcs1000 said:

The Smithson (Junior) LibDem Eleven

OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.

Twickenham
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Cambridge
10% Labour Gain
14% Labour Gain

Eastleigh
10% UKIP or Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Portsmouth South
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Orkney & Shetland
10% LibDem Hold
14% LibDem Hold

Berwick upon Tweed
10% Conservative Gain
14% Conservative Gain

Yeovil
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Sheffield Hallam
10% LibDem Hold
14% LibDem Hold

Hornsey & Wood Green
10% Labour Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Inverness, etc
10% SNP Gain
14% SNP Gain

Sutton & Cheam
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

How does Torbay crunch on your figures ?

NickPalmer said:

Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.

It doesn't require a seismic shift, just a drift as the election approaches. Something like (net changes):

2% from Lab to Can't Be Bothered or Green
2% from Lab to LD
4% from UKIP to Con
1% from UKIP to Lab
2% from Lab to Con

UKPR's current polling average is Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%

The above changes would give:

Con 38%, Lab 30%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%

It's perfectly plausible (which is not the same as saying it will definitely happen, of course). In particular, it doesn't require a mass swingback of the 2010 LibDem -> Labour switchers.

Conversely, your position that not much will change is based on the proposition that UKIP will stay at 15%. That's pretty unlikely.

I'd echo Foldy from Chester's sentiments on the Chile article comments.

"I'd put one in the box for her."

TheScreamingEagles said:

Rinka the dog is still a sore point for them.

Not quite as sore as it was for Rinka.

Tom Newton Dunn‏@tnewtondunn·3 mins
The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Tom Newton Dunn‏@tnewtondunn·3 mins
The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.

Did you see Benoît Assou-Ekotto last night?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27916978

TheScreamingEagles said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Tom Newton Dunn‏@tnewtondunn·3 mins
The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.

Did you see Benoît Assou-Ekotto last night?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27916978

Say what you like about AVB, he didn't rate BAE!

That'll go down well then with them...

norman smith‏@BBCNormanS·8 mins
Ed Miliband says ending youngsters automatic entitlement to benefits is progressive and not punitive

Michael Deacon‏@MichaelPDeacon·5 mins
Here's Ed Miliband talking about the importance of training. Ed went to Oxford, where he trained as a philosopher

I'm morphing in to Scott...

Scrapheap_as_was said:

That'll go down well then with them...

norman smith‏@BBCNormanS·8 mins
Ed Miliband says ending youngsters automatic entitlement to benefits is progressive and not punitive

You'll take it, and whats more.. you'll like it!!

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.

Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.

I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.

Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.

2012 is not that long ago. After Osborne's budget that year, Labour polled at 40% and above in all of the opinion polls that year except for 22, 8.4% of those conducted.

Even in January 2014 there were 10 polls that put Labour on 40% or above - that is 1-in-3 days had a poll in which Labour was on that score. That's quite common and not all that long back. The most recent 40% was towards the end of March. So, at the beginning of 2014 Labour had poll scores of 40+% once every three days and now it has been nearly three months since they achieved such a score.

You are deluding yourself to ignore such a change.

You seem to pull this trick with the polls quite often. When the first polls indicating a movement are published you - quite sensibly - point out that one poll could just be margin of error stuff and we need to wait for more polls to confirm a trend. By the time there have been enough polls to confirm a trend without question your response then changes to one of saying that it has been that way for ages!

The really big interesting thing - as pointed out repeatedly by TSE - about the crossover polls in May, which were the first to have the Tories ahead since before the Omnishambles budget, is that the UKIP score in those three polls averaged 15%, whereas UKIP averaged just 5% in the last three polls before the Omnishambles budget in which the Tories had a lead.

UKIP up by 10%, but Labour have lost so much ground elsewhere that the net Conservative-Labour position is unchanged.

BobaFett said:

@TSE

Your trolling would be more convincing if we didn't already know you are backing Labour largest party! ;-)

@Scrapheap

It's hard to stay positive given the daily tub of crap thrown on Ed. I like the guy, think he would make a refreshing change as PM. My sense is others disagree, although Mike makes a good point about the Red Liberals.

Err not quite.

I'm green either way with a hung parliament.

My optimum result is Con ahead on vote share and Lab ahead on seats.

But the Tories as largest party yields a profit.

And it is not trolling.

I'm pointing out the fasts to Labour's shrinking poll lead deniers.

Here we go

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Betting time?

Jessica Parker‏@MarkerJParker·10 mins
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.

Has he just had a sneak preview of Lord A's poll ?

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Betting time?

Jessica Parker‏@MarkerJParker·10 mins
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.

Spineless freak. Rescind his membership of the party if you feel that strongly

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

The Smithson (Junior) LibDem Eleven

OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.

Yeovil
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Can I just point out that a couple of weeks ago @MarkSenior was incredibly rude to me when I suggested that Yeovil might be vulnerable...

We all remember Mark Senior's Lib Dem Euro forecast.

I'm guessing he was on 2+ seats for substantially more than I was...

Edit

TSE quicker than spurs conceding a goal from kick off.

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

NickPalmer said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

On topic.

Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?

It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.

Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.

I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.

Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.

Some of us did say at the time, as the general election nears, Labour's share of the vote and lead would start to fall.

The other thing to note, historically speaking, Labour's share of the vote/lead is quite poor compared to past oppositions at the equivalent points in the electoral cycle.

Simplistic. There are very few ex-CON votes currently LAB to return to their former allegiance - unlike previous elections.

GE15 is about Labour's crutch - the LDs who've switched and the Tory wound - those who've switched to UKIP.

My reading is that in the marginals the latter are more likely to return than the former. Elsewhere it doesn't matter and UKIP will pile on vote share with very little return, if any, in terms of seats.

Simplistic. There were lots of ex-CON voters who said they would vote Labour - in 2012. They have already swung back. Some recent polls even have the Conservatives winning net voters from Labour.

There are swing voters between Labour and Conservative who can be convinced either way. Miliband could lose voters who were loyal to Brown to Cameron.

The Lord Ashcroft stuff here.

Fascinating that the Tories hold all their seats, some of us thought the LDs might pull off a few gains.

http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Con-Lib-Dem-battleground-June-2014.pdf

dyedwoolie said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Betting time?

Jessica Parker‏@MarkerJParker·10 mins
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.

Spineless freak. Rescind his membership of the party if you feel that strongly

You cant be expelled from the Lib Dems for behaving inappropriately towards women!

Yellow Peril hold Eastleigh by 12%.

4/6 for the LDs to hold it, fill yer boots

http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eastleigh/winning-party

Pulpstar said:

Charles said:

rcs1000 said:

The Smithson (Junior) LibDem Eleven

OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.

Yeovil
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold

Can I just point out that a couple of weeks ago @MarkSenior was incredibly rude to me when I suggested that Yeovil might be vulnerable...

We all remember Mark Senior's Lib Dem Euro forecast.

I'm guessing he was on 2+ seats for substantially more than I was...

Lost £ 25 , Yeovil not one of the seats in Lord A's poll but an easy hold on the average swing ,

Lib Dems are soooooo screwed...

MarkSenior said:

dyedwoolie said:

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Betting time?

Jessica Parker‏@MarkerJParker·10 mins
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.

Spineless freak. Rescind his membership of the party if you feel that strongly

What a crass comment , it is not in his power to rescind any person's membership of the Lib Dem Party .

Is it in his power to discipline the local party for failing to challenge Hancock in the recent local elections? It does give the rather terrible impression that they are still in cahoots with him.

LibDems, you have permission to panic....

So if the Tories hold all their seats, and take 15 seats from the Lib Dems, looks like a Con & DUP coalition next time.

David Cameron could go down as the greatest Tory PM of all time, under his watch, he got rid of Scotland, destroyed the Lib Dems and got us out of the EU.

Scrapheap_as_was said:

Thread conflict...

Lord Ashcroft‏@LordAshcroft·7 mins
2010 Lib Dem voters as likely to switch to UKIP as to Labour in key seats, according to my 17k-sample poll: http://bit.ly/1qgIsMv

Oh!