Not many surprises in the main findings of Lord A's poll (except perhaps Watford, which I would have expected to be closer with Labour doing better).
However, the detailed figures do show surprisingly high UKIP figures in seats where you wouldn't expect them to be strong (16% in Watford, for example). That suggests that a lot of the LibDem vote was a pure protest/NOTA vote. It also means there is plenty to play for in these marginals - I suspect the final UKIP vote will be a lot smaller than Lord A is finding - if so, where will they go?
So if the Tories hold all their seats, and take 15 seats from the Lib Dems, looks like a Con & DUP coalition next time.
David Cameron could go down as the greatest Tory PM of all time, under his watch, he got rid of Scotland, destroyed the Lib Dems and got us out of the EU.
Holding all seats plus 15 Lib Dems would be a technical majority due to SF not taking their seats no?
So if the Tories hold all their seats, and take 15 seats from the Lib Dems, looks like a Con & DUP coalition next time.
David Cameron could go down as the greatest Tory PM of all time, under his watch, he got rid of Scotland, destroyed the Lib Dems and got us out of the EU.
If Team Blue can carry after 2015 with the DUP the key thing will be to get the boundraries reformed ASAP, stuff Labour and Lib-Dems, then go back to the polls in 2016 with fairer boundaries and finally get that illusive majority.
Jessica Parker@MarkerJParker·10 mins Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.
Spineless freak. Rescind his membership of the party if you feel that strongly
What a crass comment , it is not in his power to rescind any person's membership of the Lib Dem Party .
Is it in his power to discipline the local party for failing to challenge Hancock in the recent local elections? It does give the rather terrible impression that they are still in cahoots with him.
I've taken the 4-6 on Eastleigh. It looks like UKIP's 2nd place has spooked the horses there and there are Conservatives voting Lib Dem to keep UKIP out. I was on UKIP there previously at 7-2 which is a write-off tbh.
" But according to this snapshot, the [LibDems] risks losing a dozen or more seats to the Conservatives."
"A dozen or more" seats gained by the Tories isn't actually that great in the overall scheme of things. On this basis, suggestions that the LibDems could lose up to half their 56 MPs appear exaggerated.
Betting time? Jessica Parker@MarkerJParker·10 mins Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.
Spineless freak. Rescind his membership of the party if you feel that strongly
You cant be expelled from the Lib Dems for behaving inappropriately towards women!
So if the Tories hold all their seats, and take 15 seats from the Lib Dems, looks like a Con & DUP coalition next time.
David Cameron could go down as the greatest Tory PM of all time, under his watch, he got rid of Scotland, destroyed the Lib Dems and got us out of the EU.
Holding all seats plus 15 Lib Dems would be a technical majority due to SF not taking their seats no?
Assuming Sinn Fein win 5 seats next time, that would lead the Commons with 645 members, Con would have 321 seats, so just short of a technical majority.
Jessica Parker@MarkerJParker·10 mins Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.
Spineless freak. Rescind his membership of the party if you feel that strongly
What a crass comment , it is not in his power to rescind any person's membership of the Lib Dem Party .
Is it in his power to discipline the local party for failing to challenge Hancock in the recent local elections? It does give the rather terrible impression that they are still in cahoots with him.
No , that is not in his power , either .
It all combines to give the rather terrible impression that the Lib Dems dont really disapprove of Hancock. Following on from the Rennard debacle (shouldnt that investigation be done by now?) it is all rather ... unfortunate.
At present Balls is by far the best politician they have, he has his clear faults but his work ripping apart that 2012 budget gave Ed a huge opening to build on. Largely he seems to have wasted it.
And his response to the 2013 Budget? Best forgotten.....
Mark you did say that I was having a wet dream when I pointed out that the LDs were heading to 1 MEP.
The Lord A polls indicating 15 losses to the Conservatives puts the LDs in the circa 30 loss territory at the GE. We are at the point where over half the LD MPs are having to acknowledge they will lose their seat.
@michaelsavage: "I relish the next 10 months, I relish the next 10 months," says Ed Miliband. His Kevin Keegan moment?
When you do that with policies like he said about Europe, and when you do things like that about a man like Jean-Claude Juncker - I've kept really quiet, but I'll tell you something, he went down in my estimation when he said that - we have not resorted to that. But I'll tell ya - you can tell him now if you're watching it - we're still fighting for this election, and he's got to go to the marginals and get something, and... and I tell you honestly, I will love it if we beat them, love it!
Mr Dancer, if you are an anti-censorship outfit and you appoint a shill for censorship then I think mystification and outright opposition are to be expected.
Index on Censorship has rather lost its way in recent years, being less than sound in standing up to censorship. Appointing Coogan is ridiculous. Depressing how outfits like that (Amnesty is another one) have lost their way in recent years.
As David Smith has pointed out on Twitter, Ed M's big policy sounds like something Gordon Brown would have proposed 17 years ago.
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer; work with a voluntary organisation; work on the environmental task force; and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
As David Smith has pointed out, here's Gordon Brown 17years ago making a similar promise. Whatever happened to him?
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer; work with a voluntary organisation; work on the environmental task force; and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
As David Smith has pointed out on twitter - the benefit withdrawal to under 21s sounds alot like a Gordon Brown era announcement from 20 years ago. If only Labour had the time to do all these great policies the last time they were in.
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer; work with a voluntary organisation; work on the environmental task force; and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
As David Smith has pointed out on Twitter, Ed M's big policy sounds like something Gordon Brown would have proposed 17 years ago.
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer; work with a voluntary organisation; work on the environmental task force; and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
As David Smith has pointed out, here's Gordon Brown 17years ago making a similar promise. Whatever happened to him?
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer; work with a voluntary organisation; work on the environmental task force; and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
As David Smith has pointed out on twitter - the benefit withdrawal to under 21s sounds alot like a Gordon Brown era announcement from 20 years ago. If only Labour had the time to do all these great policies the last time they were in.
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer; work with a voluntary organisation; work on the environmental task force; and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
Comments
I'm sure your mum is a fine judge of character!
However, the detailed figures do show surprisingly high UKIP figures in seats where you wouldn't expect them to be strong (16% in Watford, for example). That suggests that a lot of the LibDem vote was a pure protest/NOTA vote. It also means there is plenty to play for in these marginals - I suspect the final UKIP vote will be a lot smaller than Lord A is finding - if so, where will they go?
#manwithaplan
Under these circumstances, Hancock couldn't be recalled.
"A dozen or more" seats gained by the Tories isn't actually that great in the overall scheme of things. On this basis, suggestions that the LibDems could lose up to half their 56 MPs appear exaggerated.
A from EdMiliband: "Erm, thanks very much"
@michaelsavage: "I relish the next 10 months, I relish the next 10 months," says Ed Miliband. His Kevin Keegan moment?
Yet you have said on here numerous times you believe Ed will be PM from next May. Has your view changed?
My mind is changing because of his personal ratings getting even worse, something which I didn't anticipate.
Remember when Osborne was on minus 25 a few years ago, we were told he was toxic, so what does that make Ed.
When even 43% of Lab supporters want him replaced, it is difficult to imagine not getting "Kinnocked" during the election campaign.
Also looking at the NEV this year and to historical comparisons, I wasn't expecting Ed to do worse than Kinnock.
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/next-uk-general-election/total-seats-liberal-democrats-banded
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer;
work with a voluntary organisation;
work on the environmental task force;
and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/gordon-browns-july-1997-budget-speech-156180625.html
Think what a great country we could have been if only Labour had long enough in power to achieve all their ambitions...
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer;
work with a voluntary organisation;
work on the environmental task force;
and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/gordon-browns-july-1997-budget-speech-156180625.html
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer;
work with a voluntary organisation;
work on the environmental task force;
and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/gordon-browns-july-1997-budget-speech-156180625.html
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer;
work with a voluntary organisation;
work on the environmental task force;
and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/gordon-browns-july-1997-budget-speech-156180625.html
Think what a great country we could have been if only Labour had long enough in power to achieve all their ambitions...
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer;
work with a voluntary organisation;
work on the environmental task force;
and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/gordon-browns-july-1997-budget-speech-156180625.html
"Tomorrow the Secretary for Education and Employment will detail the four options, all involve training leading to qualifications:
a job with an employer;
work with a voluntary organisation;
work on the environmental task force;
and, for those without basic qualifications, full time education or training.
With these new opportunities for young people come new responsibilities. There will be no fifth option - to stay at home on full benefit. So when they sign on for benefit they will be signing up for work.
Benefits will be cut if young people refuse to take up the opportunities."
http://www.prnewswire.co.uk/news-releases/gordon-browns-july-1997-budget-speech-156180625.html
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