The one time I met Ed, years ago, I didn't find him odd at all. He came across as a perfectly normal bloke. I simply don't recognise his public image, which suggests he has a problem projecting his self rather than being "odd" per se.
Or, just maybe, you have a problem spotting "odd"?
Well not really. I met tons of people in my line of work, some of them are distinctly odd! He just came across as a genuinely nice guy - i suspect many of those who deride him as odd have never actually met him.
Public people often have a split persona, the nicest public figures are often utter shits in private and vice versa
Quite. That was my original point. A Labour MP once told me that Michael Howard was the nicest guy in the Commons - you'd never guess it from the way he was portrayed in the media and by his so-called colleagues in the Tory party. Who can forget Widdicombe's disgraceful attack on him?
Most politicians are pleasant in private and more similar to each other than any of them (us) would like to admit. The press likes to magnify differences of any kind (appearance, personality and indeed policy) to make an entertaining theme. The impact is blunted by the fact that the voters correctly take it all with a punch of salt.
We've been here before - at the last election, many posters on the forum thought that the Conservatives would win easily because Brown was so unpopular. The effect was much less than they expected - Labour was exhausted and on the way out anyway, but you just occasionally met someone who was pro-Labour but not voting for us because of Brown. At the moment, as Mike notes, the Red Liberals actually rather like Ed, and traditional Labour voters remain, by and large, traditional Labour voters. The main issue is turnout, but that's an issue for the Tories as well.
I’m not sure if I ought to post this, since no-one’s mention the IndyRef this morning (AFAIK) but a friend has just returned from the SW Highlands and reports seeing plenty of “Yes" posters, but no "No”s. I drove up to the Central Belt and back about 10 days ago and saw but one poster: Yes!
Oddly, I was thinking about that ensemble only this morning in the bath. They had one of the best album titles ever, but when transferring it to itunes, the CD had 99 tracks, which was a real chore.
The fact is current labour VI will vote labour in spite of Ed, not because of Ed. And they will make him PM. It will be a relief to have a well meaning oddball as PM in a non-presidential system as opposed to a poor copy of a slick PR goon, I think the importance people on here place on a party figurehead is overstated and is largely based on a contempt for the vast majority of the population held by a bunch of wealthy, privileged public schoolboys who have been brainwashed their whole lives into thinking they are everyone else's betters and the plebs need a firm guiding hand.
A well meaning oddball - its what we dream of for all our leaders.
The one time I met Ed, years ago, I didn't find him odd at all. He came across as a perfectly normal bloke. I simply don't recognise his public image, which suggests he has a problem projecting his self rather than being "odd" per se.
Great, a PM who has "a problem projecting himself" !!
Now put him in a room with Putin. I'd pay good money to see that
Just seen more details on the Labour proposals. The fact that in essence they want to say to richer parents that they are the welfare state for their kids is going to go down like a cup of cold sick. Think this will get shredded from both sides.
And also they are infantalising kids of 18: they should be looking forward to the rest of their life, not relying on their parents.
It's actually the first 3 years (or perhaps even up to, say, 24) where I don't have an issue with non-contributory support. After about then there should be an increasing contributory element.
Lord Ashcroft LD-CON battlegrounds poll with overall sample of 17k being published at 11am. It looks as though 17 seats have been polled.
Wonder if... Yeovil will be in it !
Wells should be.
Isn't Wells almost a forgone conclusion - lets put it this way if Wells fails to go blue come GE night then its going to be a shocker of a night for Dave. Mind you Solihull failed to fall in 2010 so I'm not tempted by the 2-5.
I read earlier somebody suggesting Burnham should be next Labour leader, I think that would be the most stupid choice possible. The choice not to move Burnham out of Health showed Miliband at his weakest and was a total gift to Hunt in Labour's strongest department. Hunt uses Stafford at every opportunity. Stafford will hang around Burnham forever.
Hillsborough was mentioned as well, I will say more after the inquest but the composition of that panel and some of the conclusions I have large questions about.
As for future Labour leaders, nobody on their current team leaps out but they are so controlled to follow the collective line, real vision is hard to show.
I strongly believe Labour needs to break free of the strong Union grip that in my opinion has constrained Miliband, it needs to become the party friendly to Small Business, if they don't Osborne might. Rachel Reeves seems quite bold maybe she can be the one.
At present Balls is by far the best politician they have, he has his clear faults but his work ripping apart that 2012 budget gave Ed a huge opening to build on. Largely he seems to have wasted it.
The one time I met Ed, years ago, I didn't find him odd at all. He came across as a perfectly normal bloke. I simply don't recognise his public image, which suggests he has a problem projecting his self rather than being "odd" per se.
Or, just maybe, you have a problem spotting "odd"?
Well not really. I met tons of people in my line of work, some of them are distinctly odd! He just came across as a genuinely nice guy - i suspect many of those who deride him as odd have never actually met him.
Public people often have a split persona, the nicest public figures are often utter shits in private and vice versa
A close friend of mine who knows Cameron fairly well through his line of work says that Cameron is very odd, cold and unfriendly in "real life". I have never met the PM so cannot comment. Boris I have met, and he was very warm and friendly, and came across similar to his public persona.
But you ARE commenting via a third party/., Your low grade smear is risble. I know someone who HAS met Cameron by accident rather than design , I shall not say how or where but that person said he was very pleasant .
One suspects that Bob's comment reflects more on the character and judgement of his 'friend'. I wouldn't be overtly welcoming to someone sticking a placard in my face, and calling me a red faced, pasty eating Toff, or such like.
Away from the political arena, Cameron and Milliband are both pleasant, family focussed people, but the latter is now too gaffe prone to be PM.
Just seen more details on the Labour proposals. The fact that in essence they want to say to richer parents that they are the welfare state for their kids is going to go down like a cup of cold sick. Think this will get shredded from both sides.
And also they are infantalising kids of 18: they should be looking forward to the rest of their life, not relying on their parents.
It's actually the first 3 years (or perhaps even up to, say, 24) where I don't have an issue with non-contributory support. After about then there should be an increasing contributory element.
My opinion is once you're 18, you are separate as a person from your parents. I see no justification for means testing on the basis of your parents income after than point.
Either you're an independent adult, or you aren't.
I noted in the Euros that the Lib Dems here thought they would definitely get over 2 seats. To be so far off in the SW in particular must be a big worry - I know Euros are different but there is still some correlation.
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
Just seen more details on the Labour proposals. The fact that in essence they want to say to richer parents that they are the welfare state for their kids is going to go down like a cup of cold sick. Think this will get shredded from both sides.
And also they are infantalising kids of 18: they should be looking forward to the rest of their life, not relying on their parents.
It's actually the first 3 years (or perhaps even up to, say, 24) where I don't have an issue with non-contributory support. After about then there should be an increasing contributory element.
My opinion is once you're 18, you are separate as a person from your parents. I see no justification for means testing on the basis of your parents income after than point.
Either you're an independent adult, or you aren't.
If you live at home with your parents you should be assessed the same way as if you're living with your OH for benefits I think. I don't think this is currently the case. (Household income etc)
Lewes, St Ives, Wells, Solihull, St Austell & Newquay etc
I don't think Lewes counts as a marginal!
The Conservative PPC, Maria Caulfield, is excellent and she is working very hard; I have talked to her at length, and I think she will do very well in increasing the Conservative vote in Lewes. All the same, it would take one hell of an earthquake to displace Norman Baker - he has a very strong personal vote, and in any case Lewes is quite a LibDemmy kind of place (lots of wholefood shops!). I expect an easy LibDem hold, substantially reduced majority.
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.
I can't see it working to be honest. Owner mangers will simply stockpile money in their company, pay no tax at all, then cash out for CGT, which again has no tax on it...
I’m not sure if I ought to post this, since no-one’s mention the IndyRef this morning (AFAIK) but a friend has just returned from the SW Highlands and reports seeing plenty of “Yes" posters, but no "No”s. I drove up to the Central Belt and back about 10 days ago and saw but one poster: Yes!
One of the recent Indy polls (Survation possibly?) did a regional breakdown, and I believe SW Highlands/Argyll & Bute along with Glasgow & NE were the regions with Yes ahead. Slightly odd since we're told that Trident jobs are supposed to be such a deciding factor.
Weird reading the very negative comments last night by Mr. Fett and here by Mr. Observer re Ed M - it does make the thread lose balance and makes we PBblues redundant!
On this benefits fag-packet idea, how on earth is the means testing to be done, how much will it cost to do it and will it end up costing more than the piffling amount it's supposed to save anyway.
The child benefit taper from George is a mess at £50k+ but this is even worse it sounds to me (albeit I've only heard the headlines).
Lord Ashcroft LD-CON battlegrounds poll with overall sample of 17k being published at 11am. It looks as though 17 seats have been polled.
Wonder if... Yeovil will be in it !
Wells should be.
Isn't Wells almost a forgone conclusion - lets put it this way if Wells fails to go blue come GE night then its going to be a shocker of a night for Dave. .
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.
Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.
My tips for today, yesterday was yet another profitable day.
Côte d'Ivoire to defeat Colombia, Uruguay to defeat England and Greece to defeat Japan.
Once the teams are announced, I'll be posting some FGS tips for the England v Uruguay match, Publicity Shy Paddy Power have some decent money back specials if Uruguay win.
TheScreamingEagles said: Just backed Chile to win the World Cup, 25/1 (with bet365)
Well I backed Chile at 50 with Betfair (46.5/1 net) just 10 days ago so there! This wasn't as a result of my own brilliant footy forecasting, but rather as a result of watching this video clip of the fragrant Ms Rachel Riley from this link:
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.
Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.
I love the 'actually' indignation in that post....
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.
Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.
Some of us did say at the time, as the general election nears, Labour's share of the vote and lead would start to fall.
The other thing to note, historically speaking, Labour's share of the vote/lead is quite poor compared to past oppositions at the equivalent points in the electoral cycle.
OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.
Twickenham 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Cambridge 10% Labour Gain 14% Labour Gain
Eastleigh 10% UKIP or Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Portsmouth South 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Orkney & Shetland 10% LibDem Hold 14% LibDem Hold
Berwick upon Tweed 10% Conservative Gain 14% Conservative Gain
Yeovil 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Sheffield Hallam 10% LibDem Hold 14% LibDem Hold
Hornsey & Wood Green 10% Labour Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Inverness, etc 10% SNP Gain 14% SNP Gain
Sutton & Cheam 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
TheScreamingEagles said: Just backed Chile to win the World Cup, 25/1 (with bet365)
Well I backed Chile at 50 with Betfair (46.5/1 net) just 10 days ago so there! This wasn't as a result of my own brilliant footy forecasting, but rather as a result of watching this video clip of the fragrant Ms Rachel Riley from this link:
Ten years too late, but finally some talk of draining the swamp. Let's now see it followed up by action please. The UK is a laughing stock when it comes to dealing with extreme Islamists. Closing the roads in Finsbury Park so that hook handed idiot could hate preach is something that I will never forget. It's time to deport/imprison these people and stamp out hate preachers.
Given George Osborne's rating, and the two Eds toxic ratings, the economy is expected to continue improving between now and the election, that's only going to help the Tories and hurt Labour.
OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.
Twickenham 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Cambridge 10% Labour Gain 14% Labour Gain
Eastleigh 10% UKIP or Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Portsmouth South 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Orkney & Shetland 10% LibDem Hold 14% LibDem Hold
Berwick upon Tweed 10% Conservative Gain 14% Conservative Gain
Yeovil 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Sheffield Hallam 10% LibDem Hold 14% LibDem Hold
Hornsey & Wood Green 10% Labour Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Inverness, etc 10% SNP Gain 14% SNP Gain
Sutton & Cheam 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.
It doesn't require a seismic shift, just a drift as the election approaches. Something like (net changes):
2% from Lab to Can't Be Bothered or Green 2% from Lab to LD 4% from UKIP to Con 1% from UKIP to Lab 2% from Lab to Con
UKPR's current polling average is Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%
The above changes would give:
Con 38%, Lab 30%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%
It's perfectly plausible (which is not the same as saying it will definitely happen, of course). In particular, it doesn't require a mass swingback of the 2010 LibDem -> Labour switchers.
Conversely, your position that not much will change is based on the proposition that UKIP will stay at 15%. That's pretty unlikely.
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.
Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.
Some of us did say at the time, as the general election nears, Labour's share of the vote and lead would start to fall.
The other thing to note, historically speaking, Labour's share of the vote/lead is quite poor compared to past oppositions at the equivalent points in the electoral cycle.
Simplistic. There are very few ex-CON votes currently LAB to return to their former allegiance - unlike previous elections.
GE15 is about Labour's crutch - the LDs who've switched and the Tory wound - those who've switched to UKIP.
My reading is that in the marginals the latter are more likely to return than the former. Elsewhere it doesn't matter and UKIP will pile on vote share with very little return, if any, in terms of seats.
OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.
Twickenham 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Cambridge 10% Labour Gain 14% Labour Gain
Eastleigh 10% UKIP or Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Portsmouth South 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Orkney & Shetland 10% LibDem Hold 14% LibDem Hold
Berwick upon Tweed 10% Conservative Gain 14% Conservative Gain
Yeovil 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Sheffield Hallam 10% LibDem Hold 14% LibDem Hold
Hornsey & Wood Green 10% Labour Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Inverness, etc 10% SNP Gain 14% SNP Gain
Sutton & Cheam 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Great stuff rcs. Whilst on the subject of your GE forecasting, do you have any plans to re-introduce a new all-singing, all-dancing version of VIPA which iirc actually performed very creditably in 2010, or has it died a death?
Some of us did say at the time, as the general election nears, Labour's share of the vote and lead would start to fall.
The other thing to note, historically speaking, Labour's share of the vote/lead is quite poor compared to past oppositions at the equivalent points in the electoral cycle.
Simplistic. There are very few ex-CON votes currently LAB to return to their former allegiance - unlike previous elections.
GE15 is about Labour's crutch - the LDs who've switched and the Tory wound - those who've switched to UKIP.
My reading is that in the marginals the latter are more likely to return than the former. Elsewhere it doesn't matter and UKIP will pile on vote share with very little return, if any, in terms of seats.
The effect of the crutch is reducing though is it not?
Take the gold standard of polling, ICM, their last two polls had either Labour behind or just ahead.
In the Autumn of 2012, Labour were in the 40s, and had 9% leads.
Other pollsters show this.
The other thing I'm tracking is this, there's more 2010 Lab supporters switching to Con than 2010 Con supporters switching to Lab, a lot of YouGovs show this, and I think yesterday's Mori bore that out too.
The big mistake for Labour (and anyone else) is to assume that everyone who voted Labour in 2010 will do so again in 2015.
Once again you let your warped prejudices get the better of you. If you bothered to read my post I said "in his line of work". I'll let you think again as to whether I was referring to a protestor or someone else.
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn·3 mins The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn·3 mins The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn·3 mins The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn·3 mins The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.
Tom Newton Dunn@tnewtondunn·3 mins The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.
I can't see it working to be honest. Owner mangers will simply stockpile money in their company, pay no tax at all, then cash out for CGT, which again has no tax on it...
When Starbucks were bullied into overpaying tax, they paid for it by cutting staff bonuses/wages. If tax is cut that means there is money for higher wages/more staff.
It's hard to stay positive given the daily tub of crap thrown on Ed. I like the guy, think he would make a refreshing change as PM. My sense is others disagree, although Mike makes a good point about the Red Liberals.
Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon·5 mins Here's Ed Miliband talking about the importance of training. Ed went to Oxford, where he trained as a philosopher
Michael Deacon@MichaelPDeacon·5 mins Here's Ed Miliband talking about the importance of training. Ed went to Oxford, where he trained as a philosopher
I'm morphing in to Scott...
And that training was very helpful in getting him a job based entirely on his last name...
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.
Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.
2012 is not that long ago. After Osborne's budget that year, Labour polled at 40% and above in all of the opinion polls that year except for 22, 8.4% of those conducted.
Even in January 2014 there were 10 polls that put Labour on 40% or above - that is 1-in-3 days had a poll in which Labour was on that score. That's quite common and not all that long back. The most recent 40% was towards the end of March. So, at the beginning of 2014 Labour had poll scores of 40+% once every three days and now it has been nearly three months since they achieved such a score.
You are deluding yourself to ignore such a change.
You seem to pull this trick with the polls quite often. When the first polls indicating a movement are published you - quite sensibly - point out that one poll could just be margin of error stuff and we need to wait for more polls to confirm a trend. By the time there have been enough polls to confirm a trend without question your response then changes to one of saying that it has been that way for ages!
The really big interesting thing - as pointed out repeatedly by TSE - about the crossover polls in May, which were the first to have the Tories ahead since before the Omnishambles budget, is that the UKIP score in those three polls averaged 15%, whereas UKIP averaged just 5% in the last three polls before the Omnishambles budget in which the Tories had a lead.
UKIP up by 10%, but Labour have lost so much ground elsewhere that the net Conservative-Labour position is unchanged.
norman smith@BBCNormanS·8 mins Ed Miliband says ending youngsters automatic entitlement to benefits is progressive and not punitive
You'll take it, and whats more.. you'll like it!!
The trouble with this is it alienates a key demographic, doesn't get many Con-Lab switchers as if you want a big stick, you vote big stick and it doesn't address the UKIP problem. It's shoring up at best. Disclaimer - I like neither Miliband or Labour
It's hard to stay positive given the daily tub of crap thrown on Ed. I like the guy, think he would make a refreshing change as PM. My sense is others disagree, although Mike makes a good point about the Red Liberals.
Err not quite.
I'm green either way with a hung parliament.
My optimum result is Con ahead on vote share and Lab ahead on seats.
But the Tories as largest party yields a profit.
And it is not trolling.
I'm pointing out the fasts to Labour's shrinking poll lead deniers.
OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.
Yeovil 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Can I just point out that a couple of weeks ago @MarkSenior was incredibly rude to me when I suggested that Yeovil might be vulnerable...
Once again you let your warped prejudices get the better of you. If you bothered to read my post I said "in his line of work". I'll let you think again as to whether I was referring to a protestor or someone else.
I've met Cameron when he has been "working" - he was calm, professional and slightly distant. Exactly what you would expect a Prime Minister to be.
I'm not sure that if your friend knows Cameron "in his line of work" he will necessarily get a true read.
(There again, my mother has met Cameron socially plenty of times and really doesn't like him )
OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.
Yeovil 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Can I just point out that a couple of weeks ago @MarkSenior was incredibly rude to me when I suggested that Yeovil might be vulnerable...
We all remember Mark Senior's Lib Dem Euro forecast.
I'm guessing he was on 2+ seats for substantially more than I was...
My latest polling in 17 marginal seats closely contested between the Lib Dems and the Conservatives suggests that in some places Nick Clegg’s party may indeed defy the national trend. But according to this snapshot, the party risks losing a dozen or more seats to the Conservatives.
Across the Tory-Lib Dem battleground I found the Conservative vote share down eight points since 2010 to 33 per cent – but the Lib Dems down by nearly twice that, falling 15 points to 28 per cent. Labour were up five points on their general election performance to 14 per cent in these seats, and UKIP up 14 points to 18 per cent.
Given George Osborne's rating, and the two Eds toxic ratings, the economy is expected to continue improving between now and the election, that's only going to help the Tories and hurt Labour.
The next Budget is going to be fascinating too. The pension rabbit out the hat was an indicator. (Anecdote alert: I know several people in their 50's who were VERY happy with the pension changes. I recall the 45-55 voter segment being one of the most strongly anti-Tory in recent years. If the Boy Chancellor can woo this group, the Tories are going to do alright in 2015...)
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
It'd be nice to be 20 points ahead, but the current political landscape has UKIP sitting on the floating protest vote. 3/4 points ahead is a 5-6% swing, which is plenty if it's solid. It's possible to argue that it will suddenly change back to a 7% Tory lead (which would merely duplicate the 2010 result), but the position looks too stable for that - people have had plenty of anti-Miliband coverage and factored it in.
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
I guess it would be cruel of me to point out, not so long ago Labour were polling in the 40s and had leads of double digits.
Quite a while back since that was common, actually, and the rise of UKIP has dented both major parties. The current position with both parties in the 30s and Labour normally a bit ahead has been the picture for a long time now, and those who predict a re-elected Tory or Tory-led government need a convincing explanation of what will radically change in the next 10.5 months. The "It will gradually dawn on traditional Labour voters that they'd better stick with the Government" theory is the usual one, and doesn't seem to be working so far.
Some of us did say at the time, as the general election nears, Labour's share of the vote and lead would start to fall.
The other thing to note, historically speaking, Labour's share of the vote/lead is quite poor compared to past oppositions at the equivalent points in the electoral cycle.
Simplistic. There are very few ex-CON votes currently LAB to return to their former allegiance - unlike previous elections.
GE15 is about Labour's crutch - the LDs who've switched and the Tory wound - those who've switched to UKIP.
My reading is that in the marginals the latter are more likely to return than the former. Elsewhere it doesn't matter and UKIP will pile on vote share with very little return, if any, in terms of seats.
Simplistic. There were lots of ex-CON voters who said they would vote Labour - in 2012. They have already swung back. Some recent polls even have the Conservatives winning net voters from Labour.
There are swing voters between Labour and Conservative who can be convinced either way. Miliband could lose voters who were loyal to Brown to Cameron.
"Only one in five voters in the Lib Dem-Con battleground said they would rather see Ed Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron. Less than a quarter of Lib Dem voters (23 per cent) and less than a fifth of UKIP voters (19 per cent) said they would prefer to see Miliband in Number Ten, as did only two thirds of Labour voters. Nearly nine out of ten (89 per cent) Conservative defectors to UKIP said they would rather see Cameron as Prime Minister than the alternative.
Overall, two thirds were optimistic about the economy over the next year, both for themselves and the country"
Despite that, these findings are clearly not good news for the Lib Dems, and as such will no doubt be reported as “adding to the pressure on Clegg”. And no doubt it will cause some discomfort, which may or may not be eased when I publish my research on the Lib Dem-Labour battleground, currently in the field.
At present Balls is by far the best politician they have, he has his clear faults but his work ripping apart that 2012 budget gave Ed a huge opening to build on. Largely he seems to have wasted it.
And his response to the 2013 Budget? Best forgotten.....
OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.
Yeovil 10% Conservative Gain 14% LibDem Hold
Can I just point out that a couple of weeks ago @MarkSenior was incredibly rude to me when I suggested that Yeovil might be vulnerable...
We all remember Mark Senior's Lib Dem Euro forecast.
I'm guessing he was on 2+ seats for substantially more than I was...
Lost £ 25 , Yeovil not one of the seats in Lord A's poll but an easy hold on the average swing ,
Jessica Parker@MarkerJParker·10 mins Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.
Spineless freak. Rescind his membership of the party if you feel that strongly
What a crass comment , it is not in his power to rescind any person's membership of the Lib Dem Party .
Is it in his power to discipline the local party for failing to challenge Hancock in the recent local elections? It does give the rather terrible impression that they are still in cahoots with him.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·7 mins 2010 Lib Dem voters as likely to switch to UKIP as to Labour in key seats, according to my 17k-sample poll: http://bit.ly/1qgIsMv
So if the Tories hold all their seats, and take 15 seats from the Lib Dems, looks like a Con & DUP coalition next time.
David Cameron could go down as the greatest Tory PM of all time, under his watch, he got rid of Scotland, destroyed the Lib Dems and got us out of the EU.
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·7 mins 2010 Lib Dem voters as likely to switch to UKIP as to Labour in key seats, according to my 17k-sample poll: http://bit.ly/1qgIsMv
Comments
We've been here before - at the last election, many posters on the forum thought that the Conservatives would win easily because Brown was so unpopular. The effect was much less than they expected - Labour was exhausted and on the way out anyway, but you just occasionally met someone who was pro-Labour but not voting for us because of Brown. At the moment, as Mike notes, the Red Liberals actually rather like Ed, and traditional Labour voters remain, by and large, traditional Labour voters. The main issue is turnout, but that's an issue for the Tories as well.
I drove up to the Central Belt and back about 10 days ago and saw but one poster: Yes!
Given all of this, shouldn't Labour strategists be worried the polls currently only put them circa 3/4 per cent ahead?
Now put him in a room with Putin. I'd pay good money to see that
It's actually the first 3 years (or perhaps even up to, say, 24) where I don't have an issue with non-contributory support. After about then there should be an increasing contributory element.
Hillsborough was mentioned as well, I will say more after the inquest but the composition of that panel and some of the conclusions I have large questions about.
As for future Labour leaders, nobody on their current team leaps out but they are so controlled to follow the collective line, real vision is hard to show.
I strongly believe Labour needs to break free of the strong Union grip that in my opinion has constrained Miliband, it needs to become the party friendly to Small Business, if they don't Osborne might. Rachel Reeves seems quite bold maybe she can be the one.
At present Balls is by far the best politician they have, he has his clear faults but his work ripping apart that 2012 budget gave Ed a huge opening to build on. Largely he seems to have wasted it.
Lewes, St Ives, Wells, Solihull, St Austell & Newquay etc
Away from the political arena, Cameron and Milliband are both pleasant, family focussed people, but the latter is now too gaffe prone to be PM.
Either you're an independent adult, or you aren't.
http://www.cps.org.uk/liberty/
They launched a new policy pamphlet that advocates no corporation tax for small businesses.
http://www.cps.org.uk/publications/reports/the-road-from-serfdom/
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/personal-view/10909094/Boris-Johnsons-top-50-quotes.html
Conversely I can't see much scope for the lead expanding greatly. Both Labour and Conservative voting blocs are quite solid at historically fairly low levels.
In the media kipper coverage seems to have fallen somewhat, recently.
The Conservative PPC, Maria Caulfield, is excellent and she is working very hard; I have talked to her at length, and I think she will do very well in increasing the Conservative vote in Lewes. All the same, it would take one hell of an earthquake to displace Norman Baker - he has a very strong personal vote, and in any case Lewes is quite a LibDemmy kind of place (lots of wholefood shops!). I expect an easy LibDem hold, substantially reduced majority.
Rinka the dog is still a sore point for them.
On this benefits fag-packet idea, how on earth is the means testing to be done, how much will it cost to do it and will it end up costing more than the piffling amount it's supposed to save anyway.
The child benefit taper from George is a mess at £50k+ but this is even worse it sounds to me (albeit I've only heard the headlines).
Côte d'Ivoire to defeat Colombia, Uruguay to defeat England and Greece to defeat Japan.
Once the teams are announced, I'll be posting some FGS tips for the England v Uruguay match, Publicity Shy Paddy Power have some decent money back specials if Uruguay win.
TheScreamingEagles said:
Just backed Chile to win the World Cup, 25/1 (with bet365)
Well I backed Chile at 50 with Betfair (46.5/1 net) just 10 days ago so there!
This wasn't as a result of my own brilliant footy forecasting, but rather as a result of watching this video clip of the fragrant Ms Rachel Riley from this link:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sport/worldcup2014/article-2649499/Rachel-Riley-crunches-numbers-ahead-World-Cup-tips-Chile-lift-trophy.html
I even comfortably beat her suggested odds of 40/1, but then she is working for Ladbrokes!
The other thing to note, historically speaking, Labour's share of the vote/lead is quite poor compared to past oppositions at the equivalent points in the electoral cycle.
OK. Here's my 11 LibDem seat selection, with forecasts for results at LibDems 10% nationally, and 14% nationally. There are also seats where the LibDems will lose, irrespective (Redcar, Brent) which are simply not worth forecasting.
Twickenham
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold
Cambridge
10% Labour Gain
14% Labour Gain
Eastleigh
10% UKIP or Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold
Portsmouth South
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold
Orkney & Shetland
10% LibDem Hold
14% LibDem Hold
Berwick upon Tweed
10% Conservative Gain
14% Conservative Gain
Yeovil
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold
Sheffield Hallam
10% LibDem Hold
14% LibDem Hold
Hornsey & Wood Green
10% Labour Gain
14% LibDem Hold
Inverness, etc
10% SNP Gain
14% SNP Gain
Sutton & Cheam
10% Conservative Gain
14% LibDem Hold
Ten years too late, but finally some talk of draining the swamp. Let's now see it followed up by action please. The UK is a laughing stock when it comes to dealing with extreme Islamists. Closing the roads in Finsbury Park so that hook handed idiot could hate preach is something that I will never forget. It's time to deport/imprison these people and stamp out hate preachers.
Given George Osborne's rating, and the two Eds toxic ratings, the economy is expected to continue improving between now and the election, that's only going to help the Tories and hurt Labour.
It doesn't require a seismic shift, just a drift as the election approaches. Something like (net changes):
2% from Lab to Can't Be Bothered or Green
2% from Lab to LD
4% from UKIP to Con
1% from UKIP to Lab
2% from Lab to Con
UKPR's current polling average is Con 32%, Lab 35%, LD 8%, UKIP 15%
The above changes would give:
Con 38%, Lab 30%, LD 10%, UKIP 10%
It's perfectly plausible (which is not the same as saying it will definitely happen, of course). In particular, it doesn't require a mass swingback of the 2010 LibDem -> Labour switchers.
Conversely, your position that not much will change is based on the proposition that UKIP will stay at 15%. That's pretty unlikely.
GE15 is about Labour's crutch - the LDs who've switched and the Tory wound - those who've switched to UKIP.
My reading is that in the marginals the latter are more likely to return than the former. Elsewhere it doesn't matter and UKIP will pile on vote share with very little return, if any, in terms of seats.
"I'd put one in the box for her."
Take the gold standard of polling, ICM, their last two polls had either Labour behind or just ahead.
In the Autumn of 2012, Labour were in the 40s, and had 9% leads.
Other pollsters show this.
The other thing I'm tracking is this, there's more 2010 Lab supporters switching to Con than 2010 Con supporters switching to Lab, a lot of YouGovs show this, and I think yesterday's Mori bore that out too.
The big mistake for Labour (and anyone else) is to assume that everyone who voted Labour in 2010 will do so again in 2015.
Once again you let your warped prejudices get the better of you. If you bothered to read my post I said "in his line of work". I'll let you think again as to whether I was referring to a protestor or someone else.
The live TV feed goes down seconds after Ed Mili begins his big re-launch speech on welfare. Some guys have no luck.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/0/football/27916978
norman smith@BBCNormanS·8 mins
Ed Miliband says ending youngsters automatic entitlement to benefits is progressive and not punitive
Your trolling would be more convincing if we didn't already know you are backing Labour largest party! ;-)
@Scrapheap
It's hard to stay positive given the daily tub of crap thrown on Ed. I like the guy, think he would make a refreshing change as PM. My sense is others disagree, although Mike makes a good point about the Red Liberals.
Here's Ed Miliband talking about the importance of training. Ed went to Oxford, where he trained as a philosopher
I'm morphing in to Scott...
Labour surrendering on many fronts now.
Even in January 2014 there were 10 polls that put Labour on 40% or above - that is 1-in-3 days had a poll in which Labour was on that score. That's quite common and not all that long back. The most recent 40% was towards the end of March. So, at the beginning of 2014 Labour had poll scores of 40+% once every three days and now it has been nearly three months since they achieved such a score.
You are deluding yourself to ignore such a change.
You seem to pull this trick with the polls quite often. When the first polls indicating a movement are published you - quite sensibly - point out that one poll could just be margin of error stuff and we need to wait for more polls to confirm a trend. By the time there have been enough polls to confirm a trend without question your response then changes to one of saying that it has been that way for ages!
The really big interesting thing - as pointed out repeatedly by TSE - about the crossover polls in May, which were the first to have the Tories ahead since before the Omnishambles budget, is that the UKIP score in those three polls averaged 15%, whereas UKIP averaged just 5% in the last three polls before the Omnishambles budget in which the Tories had a lead.
UKIP up by 10%, but Labour have lost so much ground elsewhere that the net Conservative-Labour position is unchanged.
It's shoring up at best.
Disclaimer - I like neither Miliband or Labour
I'm green either way with a hung parliament.
My optimum result is Con ahead on vote share and Lab ahead on seats.
But the Tories as largest party yields a profit.
And it is not trolling.
I'm pointing out the fasts to Labour's shrinking poll lead deniers.
Jessica Parker@MarkerJParker·10 mins
Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg is calling on #Portsmouth MP Mike Hancock to resign from the party.
Tories could win 12+ LD seats as LDs fall 15% on battleground, but no uniform swing. My poll analysis on @ConHome: http://bit.ly/1qgIsMv
I'm not sure that if your friend knows Cameron "in his line of work" he will necessarily get a true read.
(There again, my mother has met Cameron socially plenty of times and really doesn't like him
I'm guessing he was on 2+ seats for substantially more than I was...
Across the Tory-Lib Dem battleground I found the Conservative vote share down eight points since 2010 to 33 per cent – but the Lib Dems down by nearly twice that, falling 15 points to 28 per cent. Labour were up five points on their general election performance to 14 per cent in these seats, and UKIP up 14 points to 18 per cent.
http://www.conservativehome.com/platform/2014/06/lord-ashcroft-a-big-lesson-from-the-blue-yellow-marginals-dont-assume-uniform-swing.html
TSE quicker than spurs conceding a goal from kick off.
There are swing voters between Labour and Conservative who can be convinced either way. Miliband could lose voters who were loyal to Brown to Cameron.
"Only one in five voters in the Lib Dem-Con battleground said they would rather see Ed Miliband as Prime Minister than David Cameron. Less than a quarter of Lib Dem voters (23 per cent) and less than a fifth of UKIP voters (19 per cent) said they would prefer to see Miliband in Number Ten, as did only two thirds of Labour voters. Nearly nine out of ten (89 per cent) Conservative defectors to UKIP said they would rather see Cameron as Prime Minister than the alternative.
Overall, two thirds were optimistic about the economy over the next year, both for themselves and the country"
Bongo !
Fascinating that the Tories hold all their seats, some of us thought the LDs might pull off a few gains.
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/06/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Con-Lib-Dem-battleground-June-2014.pdf
Despite that, these findings are clearly not good news for the Lib Dems, and as such will no doubt be reported as “adding to the pressure on Clegg”. And no doubt it will cause some discomfort, which may or may not be eased when I publish my research on the Lib Dem-Labour battleground, currently in the field.
4/6 for the LDs to hold it, fill yer boots
http://www.oddschecker.com/politics/british-politics/eastleigh/winning-party
Lord Ashcroft@LordAshcroft·7 mins
2010 Lib Dem voters as likely to switch to UKIP as to Labour in key seats, according to my 17k-sample poll: http://bit.ly/1qgIsMv
David Cameron could go down as the greatest Tory PM of all time, under his watch, he got rid of Scotland, destroyed the Lib Dems and got us out of the EU.
So you are most green on Lab Largest Party, and you have said numerous times that you think Ed will be PM in 2015!!