Good morning and a good thread: short and to the point! And about betting too
I think it's a shoo-in that he'll be in Florida, isn't it? He has already booked Air Force One to take him down that morning. If he waited until after the inauguration he would have to request permission from Joe Biden to use the presidential plane for the final time and that stuck in Trump's throat.
So unless he's in jail Florida is a racing certainty.
Good morning. Good comeback from Sri Lanka; a Test that looked like England's now looks more like a draw.
Which emphasises the twists and turns that life can take, and I suspect, strongly suspect, that Trump has more for us yet. I know what Nicola S has said about him coming to Scotland but I can still see him coming .... fleeing ..... to UK?
Interesting bet. I’d take the other side of that 1/10 if it was offered, there’s got to be a reasonable chance he’ll leave the country as President, at least until he sees which way the winds are blowing.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Putin's term (theoretically) finishes in 2024 when he will be 72. He'll be increasingly looking to the succession, surely, over the last couple of years of his term, which could mean a difference of emphasis. He's fit, of course, as far as we know, so there are unlikely to be upheavals in Russia.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Putin's term (theoretically) finishes in 2024 when he will be 72. He'll be increasingly looking to the succession, surely, over the last couple of years of his term, which could mean a difference of emphasis. He's fit, of course, as far as we know, so there are unlikely to be upheavals in Russia.
Following the 2020 constitutional referendum Putin can get another two 6 years terms so he could be there until 2036 when climate change has turned Magadan into a tropical beach resort.
Mishustin was the plan but Putin has the habit of dropping potential successors into jobs where they get shit on and tarnished (see also Shoigu). Mishustin was Putin's loyal porte-drapeau for years faithfully running the tax service as a protection racket and instrument of repression. Now he's been give the PM job which is somewhat of a lightning rod for domestic discontent and could be the end for him if things get (more) difficult.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Putin's term (theoretically) finishes in 2024 when he will be 72. He'll be increasingly looking to the succession, surely, over the last couple of years of his term, which could mean a difference of emphasis. He's fit, of course, as far as we know, so there are unlikely to be upheavals in Russia.
Following the 2020 constitutional referendum Putin can get another two 6 years terms so he could be there until 2036 when climate change has turned Magadan into a tropical beach resort.
Mishustin was the plan but Putin has the habit of dropping potential successors into jobs where they get shit on and tarnished (see also Shoigu). Mishustin was Putin's loyal porte-drapeau for years faithfully running the tax service as a protection racket and instrument of repression. Now he's been give the PM job which is somewhat of a lightning rod for domestic discontent and could be the end for him if things get (more) difficult.
The return of Navalny could really put the cat amongst the pigeons. There are some big changes coming in Russia, the only questions are timing and direction. The political scene in Moscow looks stable, but it really isn´t. There are a lot of powerful forces under the surface and they have noted Putin´s ever more listless performances.
There are a lot of powerful forces under the surface and they have noted Putin´s ever more listless performances.
People in the West often assume Putin is at the top of the Russian "vertical of power" but in reality he is the gnomish henchman of the oligarchs propelled from relative obscurity to the presidency to be the Russian Pinochet.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
The new generation of wars will be fought in cyberspace, as much as by conventional militaries with guns, tanks and planes.
Russia has been trying to destabilise the West for a while now. Key to how we win the war is to reduce European dependence on the Russian oil and gas which is pretty much their only source of hand currency.
Good morning. Good comeback from Sri Lanka; a Test that looked like England's now looks more like a draw.
Which emphasises the twists and turns that life can take, and I suspect, strongly suspect, that Trump has more for us yet. I know what Nicola S has said about him coming to Scotland but I can still see him coming .... fleeing ..... to UK?
Sri Lanka are still 20 behind on economic innings with just five wickets and a day and a half left.
I would say that they would be very, very happy if they can get a draw from there, but I don’t think they’ll be counting on it just yet.
The Gabba is the one that looks like a draw - Oz 54 ahead with two days left but a monsoon in prospect.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Nice thread. In which of those is he allowed to play golf?
I wonder if he will pardon all the rioters before he goes, if possible.
I think he probably could. D.C. isn’t a state so I believe theoretically any crime committed there is a Federal crime, which is what he’s able to pardon.
Whether he’s stupid enough to try it and leave himself as the only person Federal authorities could go after for sedition, however, is another question. He’s good at blaming others and misdirection, as seen from the way he treated his tax lawyers. I think he’ll leave his supporters to swing in the wind in the hope that will leave him in he clear.
There are a lot of powerful forces under the surface and they have noted Putin´s ever more listless performances.
People in the West often assume Putin is at the top of the Russian "vertical of power" but in reality he is the gnomish henchman of the oligarchs propelled from relative obscurity to the presidency to be the Russian Pinochet.
@Dura_Ace What do you think our military is for these days ?
There are a lot of powerful forces under the surface and they have noted Putin´s ever more listless performances.
People in the West often assume Putin is at the top of the Russian "vertical of power" but in reality he is the gnomish henchman of the oligarchs propelled from relative obscurity to the presidency to be the Russian Pinochet.
@Dura_Ace What do you think our military is for these days ?
a) Salving of national vanity b) Industrial welfare for the usual suspects c) Defence of the realm
Interesting bet. I’d take the other side of that 1/10 if it was offered, there’s got to be a reasonable chance he’ll leave the country as President, at least until he sees which way the winds are blowing.
I think he would prefer to but the new Covid restrictions around the world make that completely impossible
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
The new generation of wars will be fought in cyberspace, as much as by conventional militaries with guns, tanks and planes.
The Israelis, unsurprisingly, get this. They have just subjected their entire defence capability to what was described as 'an MRI with painful consequences'. They are rapidly jettisoning a lot (but not all) legacy platforms such as aircraft and tanks to focus on cyber, EW and precision strike.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
On topic: this looks like a great value bet as Trump will obviously foute le camp to Maga Lardo but I think there is a chance the VC-25 will actually be in transit when Biden is actually being inaugurated.
Trump won't want to leave until the last minute and Biden won't turn the aircraft round in transit.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
There are a lot of powerful forces under the surface and they have noted Putin´s ever more listless performances.
People in the West often assume Putin is at the top of the Russian "vertical of power" but in reality he is the gnomish henchman of the oligarchs propelled from relative obscurity to the presidency to be the Russian Pinochet.
@Dura_Ace What do you think our military is for these days ?
a) Salving of national vanity b) Industrial welfare for the usual suspects c) Defence of the realm
In that order.
Defence of the realm is as high as (c)? I’d say that’s good news.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
So yes, you’re probably right.
Sort of on topic. Grandson Two is, we hope, going to Uni (probably Exeter) to read History in September. I'm looking forward to hearing something about his studies. I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
The Romans?
William wasn't France.
Geography doesn't change and it doesn't matter whether we have a feud with France, it's about feuds with anyone capable of invading and conquering France. And if you want to go by historical example, the last - highly successful - cross channel invasion was in 1944. Other direction, but so what?
I am not picking on TSE, just an observation, please don't ban me - the word "Trump" seems to me to be used too many times in the header for it to be pleasant to read.
That said, a friend of mine used to hate it when a player was described in several different ways in a football round up, ie "The veteran opened the scoring", "the Dutchman went on to set up the winner", "Arsenal's number ten won the man of the match award" "the thirty-four year old will be happy with his days work" to describe a mid 2000's Dennis Bergkamp performance, when saying "Bergkamp" four times would have done the job, so maybe it is just personal preference rather than crimes against writing. Does it matter anyway?
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
So yes, you’re probably right.
Sort of on topic. Grandson Two is, we hope, going to Uni (probably Exeter) to read History in September. I'm looking forward to hearing something about his studies. I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
Well, if you will tell him the uni’s full of ‘posh totty,’ what do you expect?
Not at all a bad history department though. Richard Toye on his own is an ornament to any department, while Jon Lawrence, Levi Roach and Laura Sangha are all big names in their fields.
I am not picking on TSE, just an observation, please don't ban me - the word "Trump" seems to me to be used too many times in the header for it to be pleasant to read.
That said, a friend of mine used to hate it when a player was described in several different ways in a football round up, ie "The veteran opened the scoring", "the Dutchman went on to set up the winner", "Arsenal's number ten won the man of the match award" "the thirty-four year old will be happy with his days work" to describe a mid 2000's Dennis Bergkamp performance, when saying "Bergkamp" four times would have done the job, so maybe it is just personal preference rather than crimes against writing. Does it matter anyway?
The answer is to drop the pronoun in when it’s clear you’re referring to the subject. The example you give is an abomination. Similarly, Daily Mail articles about Lana Del Rey that refer to ‘the Video Games singer’ etc.
Good morning. Good comeback from Sri Lanka; a Test that looked like England's now looks more like a draw.
The other test match is a cracker. Great fightback by India. If they had taken their chances in the Aussie first innings it would probably be their series.
As for New Zealand and Kane Williamson ... wow. The No. 1 test team in the world.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
So yes, you’re probably right.
Sort of on topic. Grandson Two is, we hope, going to Uni (probably Exeter) to read History in September. I'm looking forward to hearing something about his studies. I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
Well, if you will tell him the uni’s full of ‘posh totty,’ what do you expect?
Not at all a bad history department though. Richard Toye on his own is an ornament to any department, while Jon Lawrence, Levi Roach and Laura Sangha are all big names in their fields.
I recall in my day Exeter students used to be described as being like Devon cream: thick and rich.
I am not picking on TSE, just an observation, please don't ban me - the word "Trump" seems to me to be used too many times in the header for it to be pleasant to read.
That said, a friend of mine used to hate it when a player was described in several different ways in a football round up, ie "The veteran opened the scoring", "the Dutchman went on to set up the winner", "Arsenal's number ten won the man of the match award" "the thirty-four year old will be happy with his days work" to describe a mid 2000's Dennis Bergkamp performance, when saying "Bergkamp" four times would have done the job, so maybe it is just personal preference rather than crimes against writing. Does it matter anyway?
The veteran pb commenter takes issue with the designer-trainer-sporting deputy editor's style. Called "elegant variation" in the trade
Biden set to make the UK his first overseas trip. I'm looking forwards to the articles from the usual suspects about how the US us no longer a real superpower.
That EU-China deal is going to cause a huge rupture in western unity, all so that Siemens can get access to Chinese slave labour camps to make dishwashers.
I am not picking on TSE, just an observation, please don't ban me - the word "Trump" seems to me to be used too many times in the header for it to be pleasant to read.
That said, a friend of mine used to hate it when a player was described in several different ways in a football round up, ie "The veteran opened the scoring", "the Dutchman went on to set up the winner", "Arsenal's number ten won the man of the match award" "the thirty-four year old will be happy with his days work" to describe a mid 2000's Dennis Bergkamp performance, when saying "Bergkamp" four times would have done the job, so maybe it is just personal preference rather than crimes against writing. Does it matter anyway?
I would be quite content if there were a convention to refer to the pussy grabbing misogynist without using either his name or pronouns.
Good morning. Good comeback from Sri Lanka; a Test that looked like England's now looks more like a draw.
The other test match is a cracker. Great fightback by India. If they had taken their chances in the Aussie first innings it would probably be their series.
As for New Zealand and Kane Williamson ... wow. The No. 1 test team in the world.
Several years ago, John Bracewell signed a 20 year old who had just made a pretty decent start to his Test career as Glos’ overseas player.
Then Alex Gidman got injured and this novice was named stand in captain.
At the time, I thought Bracewell was mad when former captains Lewis and Taylor were available.
His name was Kane Williamson, and he held Middlesex, one of the strongest sides in the division and led by Andrew Strauss, to a draw with a fighting 73.
On topic: this looks like a great value bet as Trump will obviously foute le camp to Maga Lardo but I think there is a chance the VC-25 will actually be in transit when Biden is actually being inaugurated.
Trump won't want to leave until the last minute
Guesswork and incorrect.
US media outlets, quoting sources close to the President, report that it is all scheduled and Trump has to land in Florida on Air Force One well before the inauguration. Indeed, the plane has to be back in Washington (or rather, Air Force Andrews Base) for the new President.
They have also had to generate two sets of "biscuit cards" which are the nuclear codes. The one which Trump will carry on board to Florida as President will be switched off just as Biden is inaugurated and given the other set.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Yes, having enemies and being invaded are two different things, and classic country X invades country Y as per WW2 has become extremely rare across the globe, virtually the only examples being disputed borders and the aftermath of state collapse (Ukraine being the obvious example). Conversely, society is now much more vulnerable to direct cyberattack and more insidious efforts like fake news. I don't see much point in retaining significant tank forces but we should certainly invest in expanding places like GCHQ.
An interesitng question is *why* international invasion has become rare. Has the human race grown up a bit?
Interesting couple of posts on new CDU lead. https:/twitter.com/b_judah/status/1350626266010021892?s=21 https:/twitter.com/b_judah/status/1350628254802182145?s=21 https:/twitter.com/b_judah/status/1350629915494936577?s=21
Oh dear. Europe becomes an even less reliable ally.
F1: mildly surprised a Hamilton-Mercedes deal hasn't been concluded yet.
MB have just committed 70 billion € to building six factories for their electrification drive so the Daimler AG board isn't totally jazzed on paying for another platinum and ruby ampalang for Sir Lew.
Particularly as F1 isn't going to be relevant to any mass market product in 10 years.
That would be sensible, but hard to see how it can be revenue neutral with every LA in England in roughly the financial position of RBS under Fred the Shred.
F1: mildly surprised a Hamilton-Mercedes deal hasn't been concluded yet.
MB have just committed 70 billion € to building six factories for their electrification drive so the Daimler AG board isn't totally jazzed on paying for another platinum and ruby ampalang for Sir Lew.
Particularly as F1 isn't going to be relevant to any mass market product in 10 years.
That will be the Daimler AG board that only owns a 1/3 of the team. I'm not surprised no deal has been agreed but equally I don't think the board cars 1 bit at the moment.
Biden set to make the UK his first overseas trip. I'm looking forwards to the articles from the usual suspects about how the US us no longer a real superpower.
That EU-China deal is going to cause a huge rupture in western unity, all so that Siemens can get access to Chinese slave labour camps to make dishwashers.
I agree - I can’t help but think that China deal was a huge strategic blunder by the EU.
Will be interesting to see Bidens approach to a China, and how he’ll work with the five eyes country’s.
F1: mildly surprised a Hamilton-Mercedes deal hasn't been concluded yet.
MB have just committed 70 billion € to building six factories for their electrification drive so the Daimler AG board isn't totally jazzed on paying for another platinum and ruby ampalang for Sir Lew.
Particularly as F1 isn't going to be relevant to any mass market product in 10 years.
That will be the Daimler AG board that only owns a 1/3 of the team. I'm not surprised no deal has been agreed but equally I don't think the board cars 1 bit at the moment.
Clearly the punch Grant Shapps in the face very hard threat is working. Finally the government seems to be getting serious on border controls. It's just a year too late.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
So yes, you’re probably right.
Sort of on topic. Grandson Two is, we hope, going to Uni (probably Exeter) to read History in September. I'm looking forward to hearing something about his studies. I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
I'm growing a little weary of US channels, especially CNN, bashing Britain. There have been a whole series of articles focused on what a cock-up the country now is. Brexit has been a particular source of derision. Here's CNN's latest:
I'm a left-leaner who voted Labour and campaigned vigorously for Remain. Even I'm getting irritated by this constant negativity. It's not only that it's a case of 'pot, kettle, black'. It's two other things which I am increasingly feeling.
1. Brexit has not (yet) been the disaster some were excitedly predicting. Yes there are teething issues but, frankly, it has gone quite smoothly so far. We have a trade deal and our vaccine rollout is undeniably faster thanks to shaking off the EU shackles.
2. The vaccine rollout is a STELLAR success so far. The UK is on course to be the global leader on mass vaccination of its citizens (Israel, UAE, Bahrain are doing well too with smaller populations). In a handful of months we will have the vast majority of the country vaccinated, the virus all but eliminated and our citizens able to travel the world as a result. It is absolutely clear that airlines in conjunction with the WHO are going to make vaccination the prerequisite for travel.
Yes there have been cock-ups and u-turns but Boris Johnson and Britain are doing alright.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
So yes, you’re probably right.
Sort of on topic. Grandson Two is, we hope, going to Uni (probably Exeter) to read History in September. I'm looking forward to hearing something about his studies. I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
Well, if you will tell him the uni’s full of ‘posh totty,’ what do you expect?
Not at all a bad history department though. Richard Toye on his own is an ornament to any department, while Jon Lawrence, Levi Roach and Laura Sangha are all big names in their fields.
Thanks for the comment about the department; it'll make his father happier.
F1: mildly surprised a Hamilton-Mercedes deal hasn't been concluded yet.
MB have just committed 70 billion € to building six factories for their electrification drive so the Daimler AG board isn't totally jazzed on paying for another platinum and ruby ampalang for Sir Lew.
Particularly as F1 isn't going to be relevant to any mass market product in 10 years.
Don't you think F1 will be electric before too long?
It always struck me as a bit overstated. Yes, families were going to be mixing a bit more, particularly inter generationally, but Christmas means that work stops these days so no one going to the office, travelling on public transport (if there is any), going to shops, etc. One probably cancelled the other out to a large extent.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
So yes, you’re probably right.
Sort of on topic. Grandson Two is, we hope, going to Uni (probably Exeter) to read History in September. I'm looking forward to hearing something about his studies. I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
I'm growing a little weary of US channels, especially CNN, bashing Britain. There have been a whole series of articles focused on what a cock-up the country now is. Brexit has been a particular source of derision. Here's CNN's latest:
I'm a left-leaner who voted Labour and campaigned vigorously for Remain. Even I'm getting irritated by this constant negativity. It's not only that it's a case of 'pot, kettle, black'. It's two other things which I am increasingly feeling.
1. Brexit has not (yet) been the disaster some were excitedly predicting. Yes there are teething issues but, frankly, it has gone quite smoothly so far. We have a trade deal and our vaccine rollout is undeniably faster thanks to shaking off the EU shackles.
2. The vaccine rollout is a STELLAR success so far. The UK is on course to be the global leader on mass vaccination of its citizens (Israel, UAE, Bahrain are doing well too with smaller populations). In a handful of months we will have the vast majority of the country vaccinated, the virus all but eliminated and our citizens able to travel the world as a result. It is absolutely clear that airlines in conjunction with the WHO are going to make vaccination the prerequisite for travel.
Yes there have been cock-ups and u-turns but Boris Johnson and Britain are doing alright.
I thought @MaxPB's comment of get back to us when we need 20k troops for the opening of Parliament made the point pretty well.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Yes, though whether the treason was that of James II, who was selling the country to France and the Pope, or the immortal seven, who invited William over, is arguable.
Talking of traitors, the Americans briefly controlled an acre or so of British soil during their raid on Whitehaven in 1778.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
F1: mildly surprised a Hamilton-Mercedes deal hasn't been concluded yet.
MB have just committed 70 billion € to building six factories for their electrification drive so the Daimler AG board isn't totally jazzed on paying for another platinum and ruby ampalang for Sir Lew.
Particularly as F1 isn't going to be relevant to any mass market product in 10 years.
Don't you think F1 will be electric before too long?
Dunno, I don't really like or follow it closely. I don't think manufacturers will be in it for the long haul though.
I'm growing a little weary of US channels, especially CNN, bashing Britain. There have been a whole series of articles focused on what a cock-up the country now is. Brexit has been a particular source of derision. Here's CNN's latest:
I'm a left-leaner who voted Labour and campaigned vigorously for Remain. Even I'm getting irritated by this constant negativity. It's not only that it's a case of 'pot, kettle, black'. It's two other things which I am increasingly feeling.
1. Brexit has not (yet) been the disaster some were excitedly predicting. Yes there are teething issues but, frankly, it has gone quite smoothly so far. We have a trade deal and our vaccine rollout is undeniably faster thanks to shaking off the EU shackles.
2. The vaccine rollout is a STELLAR success so far. The UK is on course to be the global leader on mass vaccination of its citizens (Israel, UAE, Bahrain are doing well too with smaller populations). In a handful of months we will have the vast majority of the country vaccinated, the virus all but eliminated and our citizens able to travel the world as a result. It is absolutely clear that airlines in conjunction with the WHO are going to make vaccination the prerequisite for travel.
Yes there have been cock-ups and u-turns but Boris Johnson and Britain are doing alright.
An interesitng question is *why* international invasion has become rare. Has the human race grown up a bit?
My gut feeling would be 'no' -- I'd be inclined to suspect a combination of "the balance of incentives for potential invaders has changed" and "we just got lucky for a few decades".
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us.
You missed the Salisbury poisonings then?
The Russians aren't as much of a threat to the UK as the National Trust.
That would be sensible, but hard to see how it can be revenue neutral with every LA in England in roughly the financial position of RBS under Fred the Shred.
It may be revenue neutral overall, but there will be huge disparities between the winners and losers. The losers will cry bloody murder and the winners will hardly notice.
So overall I can see this being a 21st century version of the Poll Tax.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
The new generation of wars will be fought in cyberspace, as much as by conventional militaries with guns, tanks and planes.
Russia has been trying to destabilise the West for a while now. Key to how we win the war is to reduce European dependence on the Russian oil and gas which is pretty much their only source of hand currency.
Indeed. Just because Russia doesn't have tanks on our doorstep threatening immediate physical invasion doesn't mean it's not a threat to us.
It regularly tests British air defences, launches submarine incursions into our waters, hacks our networks and intelligence and carries out acts of state-sanctioned murder on our soil. Not to mention invading its neighbours and trying to destabilise NATO, which keeps us safe overall.
Those who doubt the veracity of this should read the recent cross-party parliamentary report on Russia.
That would be sensible, but hard to see how it can be revenue neutral with every LA in England in roughly the financial position of RBS under Fred the Shred.
Not against that in principle, but the article suggests that it's unnamed people in the Treausry having a look and Sunak yet to be persuaded and in general sceptical about property taxation. It reads like a kite-flying exercise.
It always struck me as a bit overstated. Yes, families were going to be mixing a bit more, particularly inter generationally, but Christmas means that work stops these days so no one going to the office, travelling on public transport (if there is any), going to shops, etc. One probably cancelled the other out to a large extent.
What we have seen is a spike in 80+ year olds iirc. I'm pretty sure that's a xmas mixing effect. Indeed, there was a case outlined in this week's New Statesman by a working GP of exactly that.
I'm growing a little weary of US channels, especially CNN, bashing Britain. There have been a whole series of articles focused on what a cock-up the country now is. Brexit has been a particular source of derision. Here's CNN's latest:
I'm a left-leaner who voted Labour and campaigned vigorously for Remain. Even I'm getting irritated by this constant negativity. It's not only that it's a case of 'pot, kettle, black'. It's two other things which I am increasingly feeling.
1. Brexit has not (yet) been the disaster some were excitedly predicting. Yes there are teething issues but, frankly, it has gone quite smoothly so far. We have a trade deal and our vaccine rollout is undeniably faster thanks to shaking off the EU shackles.
2. The vaccine rollout is a STELLAR success so far. The UK is on course to be the global leader on mass vaccination of its citizens (Israel, UAE, Bahrain are doing well too with smaller populations). In a handful of months we will have the vast majority of the country vaccinated, the virus all but eliminated and our citizens able to travel the world as a result. It is absolutely clear that airlines in conjunction with the WHO are going to make vaccination the prerequisite for travel.
Yes there have been cock-ups and u-turns but Boris Johnson and Britain are doing alright.
Maybe don't watch CNN if you don't like it?
What a silly comment.
I like CNN very much and I don't tend to 'watch' it. I use their website a lot for US news, along with NBC, ABC, NYT and Washington Post with occasional forays into FoxNews when I'm feeling robust enough to handle it.
I am merely pointing out about their current undue negativity towards Britain.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has never controlled an acre of British soil so far as I'm aware, they were an adversary through the cold war due to our position in the globe, nuclear firepower and alliance with the USA via NATO. France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back. So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Holland has invaded several times, most recently a rather halfarsed affair in 1688 which, to everyone’s astonishment, worked. Norway also invaded England in 1066 and Scotland several times, notably Hakon’s catastrophe in 1263. Spain made several less than efficient attempts in the sixteenth century, including one landing in Cornwall in 1595 and an even more inept one the following year.
Couldn't the 1688 affair be reasonably described as 'in support of treasonous activity'?
Parliament would argue the treason was committed by the king...
So yes, you’re probably right.
Sort of on topic. Grandson Two is, we hope, going to Uni (probably Exeter) to read History in September. I'm looking forward to hearing something about his studies. I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
singing sea shanties?
Strange as it may seem, that is the current trend...
That would be sensible, but hard to see how it can be revenue neutral with every LA in England in roughly the financial position of RBS under Fred the Shred.
Not against that in principle, but the article suggests that it's unnamed people in the Treausry having a look and Sunak yet to be persuaded and in general sceptical about property taxation. It reads like a kite-flying exercise.
But as I said offer a land value tax against a council tax revaluation exercise and suddenly it becomes so much less politically scary - as the London, South and the Home Counties will need an entirely separate set of bands to reflect property values to the North.
Sensible proposition. Stamp duty is a daft tax on moving house and council tax's cap at the upper end cuts off a perfectly reasonable source of revenue while also being highly regressive. Probably too sensible to happen.
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Putin's term (theoretically) finishes in 2024 when he will be 72. He'll be increasingly looking to the succession, surely, over the last couple of years of his term, which could mean a difference of emphasis. He's fit, of course, as far as we know, so there are unlikely to be upheavals in Russia.
Following the 2020 constitutional referendum Putin can get another two 6 years terms so he could be there until 2036 when climate change has turned Magadan into a tropical beach resort.
Mishustin was the plan but Putin has the habit of dropping potential successors into jobs where they get shit on and tarnished (see also Shoigu). Mishustin was Putin's loyal porte-drapeau for years faithfully running the tax service as a protection racket and instrument of repression. Now he's been give the PM job which is somewhat of a lightning rod for domestic discontent and could be the end for him if things get (more) difficult.
An interesitng question is *why* international invasion has become rare. Has the human race grown up a bit?
My gut feeling would be 'no' -- I'd be inclined to suspect a combination of "the balance of incentives for potential invaders has changed" and "we just got lucky for a few decades".
The wars in the Caucasus? Iraq/Iran? Nothing in Europe, I'll admit.
I'm growing a little weary of US channels, especially CNN, bashing Britain. There have been a whole series of articles focused on what a cock-up the country now is. Brexit has been a particular source of derision. Here's CNN's latest:
I'm a left-leaner who voted Labour and campaigned vigorously for Remain. Even I'm getting irritated by this constant negativity. It's not only that it's a case of 'pot, kettle, black'. It's two other things which I am increasingly feeling.
1. Brexit has not (yet) been the disaster some were excitedly predicting. Yes there are teething issues but, frankly, it has gone quite smoothly so far. We have a trade deal and our vaccine rollout is undeniably faster thanks to shaking off the EU shackles.
2. The vaccine rollout is a STELLAR success so far. The UK is on course to be the global leader on mass vaccination of its citizens (Israel, UAE, Bahrain are doing well too with smaller populations). In a handful of months we will have the vast majority of the country vaccinated, the virus all but eliminated and our citizens able to travel the world as a result. It is absolutely clear that airlines in conjunction with the WHO are going to make vaccination the prerequisite for travel.
Yes there have been cock-ups and u-turns but Boris Johnson and Britain are doing alright.
I thought @MaxPB's comment of get back to us when we need 20k troops for the opening of Parliament made the point pretty well.
The general narrative from overseas - not just CNN - is that Britain is fucked.
That is because we have spent 4 or 5 years fucking ourselves.
That the US is also - albeit differently - fucked, is irrelevant. It’s not as if CNN did not report on the Capitol coup.
Sensible proposition. Stamp duty is a daft tax on moving house and council tax's cap at the upper end cuts off a perfectly reasonable source of revenue while also being highly regressive. Probably too sensible to happen.
It would hit prime Tory voting areas in the SE far too hard for it ever to happen.
So the new leader of Germany is likely to be a Qanon admiring loon?
God help us.
He may not even be the CDU/CSU chancellor candidate, I think the Bavarian Minister President and CSU leader Markus Soder will challenge him for that position
Just catching up, a very good and insightful piece from @david_herdson yesterday.
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Nah, Russia is no longer a military threat to us. It will concentrate on harassing its neighbours, and bumping off the odd dissident at home and abroad while sowing alt.right trolls across the west.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
The new generation of wars will be fought in cyberspace, as much as by conventional militaries with guns, tanks and planes.
Russia has been trying to destabilise the West for a while now. Key to how we win the war is to reduce European dependence on the Russian oil and gas which is pretty much their only source of hand currency.
Indeed. Just because Russia doesn't have tanks on our doorstep threatening immediate physical invasion doesn't mean it's not a threat to us.
It regularly tests British air defences, launches submarine incursions into our waters, hacks our networks and intelligence and carries out acts of state-sanctioned murder on our soil. Not to mention invading its neighbours and trying to destabilise NATO, which keeps us safe overall.
Those who doubt the veracity of this should read the recent cross-party parliamentary report on Russia.
And notably its biggest threat is troll farms stirring up alt.right culture wars amongst useful idiots.
Nice thread. In which of those is he allowed to play golf?
I wonder if he will pardon all the rioters before he goes, if possible.
I think he probably could. D.C. isn’t a state so I believe theoretically any crime committed there is a Federal crime, which is what he’s able to pardon.
Whether he’s stupid enough to try it and leave himself as the only person Federal authorities could go after for sedition, however, is another question. He’s good at blaming others and misdirection, as seen from the way he treated his tax lawyers. I think he’ll leave his supporters to swing in the wind in the hope that will leave him in he clear.
Pardoning those involved seems like it might convince some senators to convict him. Given hes probably free and clear at the moment hed do well to leave it alone.
Sensible proposition. Stamp duty is a daft tax on moving house and council tax's cap at the upper end cuts off a perfectly reasonable source of revenue while also being highly regressive. Probably too sensible to happen.
Having paid a shed load on stamp duty I would feel highly aggrieved if I had to pay for it again in an ongoing property tax.
Even though I think property taxes in principle makes sense.
It always struck me as a bit overstated. Yes, families were going to be mixing a bit more, particularly inter generationally, but Christmas means that work stops these days so no one going to the office, travelling on public transport (if there is any), going to shops, etc. One probably cancelled the other out to a large extent.
What we have seen is a spike in 80+ year olds iirc. I'm pretty sure that's a xmas mixing effect. Indeed, there was a case outlined in this week's New Statesman by a working GP of exactly that.
Yes, that would be the intergenerational effect and given that many of those invited for Christmas lunch had been shielding for good reasons that will have an effect but the overall infection rate was not likely to be materially different.
One of the great frustrations for me of this virus is that we have not focused on how you actually catch it. So, for example, we have been focusing on hand washing for over a year. Does it make any difference at all? I would suggest the evidence is no, that it is very difficult to pick up a sufficient load of the virus from a surface. We didn't get on to masks nearly early enough, possibly because there was a shortage of PPE for front line workers. Is it really dangerous to go within 1m of someone for a few seconds in a shop or other indoor setting? Is it dangerous to do that outdoors?
I wish we had a clearer picture of when and how we catch this. Inside for extended periods breathing poorly circulating air seems much more of an issue than social distancing.
I'm growing a little weary of US channels, especially CNN, bashing Britain. There have been a whole series of articles focused on what a cock-up the country now is. Brexit has been a particular source of derision. Here's CNN's latest:
I'm a left-leaner who voted Labour and campaigned vigorously for Remain. Even I'm getting irritated by this constant negativity. It's not only that it's a case of 'pot, kettle, black'. It's two other things which I am increasingly feeling.
1. Brexit has not (yet) been the disaster some were excitedly predicting. Yes there are teething issues but, frankly, it has gone quite smoothly so far. We have a trade deal and our vaccine rollout is undeniably faster thanks to shaking off the EU shackles.
2. The vaccine rollout is a STELLAR success so far. The UK is on course to be the global leader on mass vaccination of its citizens (Israel, UAE, Bahrain are doing well too with smaller populations). In a handful of months we will have the vast majority of the country vaccinated, the virus all but eliminated and our citizens able to travel the world as a result. It is absolutely clear that airlines in conjunction with the WHO are going to make vaccination the prerequisite for travel.
Yes there have been cock-ups and u-turns but Boris Johnson and Britain are doing alright.
Comments
I think it's a shoo-in that he'll be in Florida, isn't it? He has already booked Air Force One to take him down that morning. If he waited until after the inauguration he would have to request permission from Joe Biden to use the presidential plane for the final time and that stuck in Trump's throat.
So unless he's in jail Florida is a racing certainty.
https://www.nbcmiami.com/news/local/south-florida-city-mar-a-lago-set-for-president-trumps-arrival-on-inauguration-day/2364305/
I'll admit, I did not see that one coming.
Nor his persuading them to launch their new submarine-based nukes on Washington DC. He really was a Bad Loser, huh?
And the head of SPECTRE.
Nice thread. In which of those is he allowed to play golf?
I wonder if he will pardon all the rioters before he goes, if possible.
Which emphasises the twists and turns that life can take, and I suspect, strongly suspect, that Trump has more for us yet. I know what Nicola S has said about him coming to Scotland but I can still see him coming .... fleeing ..... to UK?
As the USA increasingly looks towards China for its foreign policy issues, European nations are going to have to do much more themselves in the future, to defend against the threats from Russia.
Mishustin was the plan but Putin has the habit of dropping potential successors into jobs where they get shit on and tarnished (see also Shoigu). Mishustin was Putin's loyal porte-drapeau for years faithfully running the tax service as a protection racket and instrument of repression. Now he's been give the PM job which is somewhat of a lightning rod for domestic discontent and could be the end for him if things get (more) difficult.
We have no significant military enemies any more. Indeed need to rethink what our armed forces are for besides bussing vaccines around old folks homes.
Russia has been trying to destabilise the West for a while now. Key to how we win the war is to reduce European dependence on the Russian oil and gas which is pretty much their only source of hand currency.
That’s a hard one to beat, but I suppose his constant very high blood pressure may help?
I would say that they would be very, very happy if they can get a draw from there, but I don’t think they’ll be counting on it just yet.
The Gabba is the one that looks like a draw - Oz 54 ahead with two days left but a monsoon in prospect.
France and Denmark are the only nations that have properly invaded us iirc, and those feuds in terms of military threats are long gone. Other historical threats have been when we stood up for what we believed (And certainly was in the case of the Nazis) was right in the world, and our own empire building a bit further back.
So far as I can see for the forseeable future there won't be a military threat to the UK, it'll be via disinformation/terrorism and so forth that Russia/Iran sponsor and engage in. But that isn't obviously countered with the military.
Whether he’s stupid enough to try it and leave himself as the only person Federal authorities could go after for sedition, however, is another question. He’s good at blaming others and misdirection, as seen from the way he treated his tax lawyers. I think he’ll leave his supporters to swing in the wind in the hope that will leave him in he clear.
b) Industrial welfare for the usual suspects
c) Defence of the realm
In that order.
Trump won't want to leave until the last minute and Biden won't turn the aircraft round in transit.
So yes, you’re probably right.
I don't suppose I'll hear much about his extra-curricular activities.
William wasn't France.
Geography doesn't change and it doesn't matter whether we have a feud with France, it's about feuds with anyone capable of invading and conquering France. And if you want to go by historical example, the last - highly successful - cross channel invasion was in 1944. Other direction, but so what?
That said, a friend of mine used to hate it when a player was described in several different ways in a football round up, ie "The veteran opened the scoring", "the Dutchman went on to set up the winner", "Arsenal's number ten won the man of the match award" "the thirty-four year old will be happy with his days work" to describe a mid 2000's Dennis Bergkamp performance, when saying "Bergkamp" four times would have done the job, so maybe it is just personal preference rather than crimes against writing. Does it matter anyway?
Not at all a bad history department though. Richard Toye on his own is an ornament to any department, while Jon Lawrence, Levi Roach and Laura Sangha are all big names in their fields.
As for New Zealand and Kane Williamson ... wow. The No. 1 test team in the world.
F1: mildly surprised a Hamilton-Mercedes deal hasn't been concluded yet.
It's why, in my enormo-haddock blog, I often refer to drivers by nationality or team as well as by name.
That EU-China deal is going to cause a huge rupture in western unity, all so that Siemens can get access to Chinese slave labour camps to make dishwashers.
Then Alex Gidman got injured and this novice was named stand in captain.
At the time, I thought Bracewell was mad when former captains Lewis and Taylor were available.
His name was Kane Williamson, and he held Middlesex, one of the strongest sides in the division and led by Andrew Strauss, to a draw with a fighting 73.
I no longer think Bracewell was mad...
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1350626266010021892?s=21
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1350628254802182145?s=21
https://twitter.com/b_judah/status/1350629915494936577?s=21
US media outlets, quoting sources close to the President, report that it is all scheduled and Trump has to land in Florida on Air Force One well before the inauguration. Indeed, the plane has to be back in Washington (or rather, Air Force Andrews Base) for the new President.
They have also had to generate two sets of "biscuit cards" which are the nuclear codes. The one which Trump will carry on board to Florida as President will be switched off just as Biden is inaugurated and given the other set.
God help us.
An interesitng question is *why* international invasion has become rare. Has the human race grown up a bit?
Edit - England now into Sri Lanka’s rather long tail.
Particularly as F1 isn't going to be relevant to any mass market product in 10 years.
Bottas is 13 on Betfair.
This match has been hard on him. He bowls well, and gets three wickets for a lot. Bess bowls filth and gets 8-100.
That said, Bess went the whole summer with no luck at all.
Sincerely yours, the poster whose handle means ‘The Doctor.’
Will be interesting to see Bidens approach to a China, and how he’ll work with the five eyes country’s.
https://twitter.com/fact_covid/status/1350732632754159618?s=21
Clearly the punch Grant Shapps in the face very hard threat is working. Finally the government seems to be getting serious on border controls. It's just a year too late.
https://edition.cnn.com/travel/article/uk-travel-2021-crisis/index.html
And here was a real pre-Christmas piece of savage attack:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/12/21/uk/boris-johnson-covid-analysis-intl-gbr/index.html
I'm a left-leaner who voted Labour and campaigned vigorously for Remain. Even I'm getting irritated by this constant negativity. It's not only that it's a case of 'pot, kettle, black'. It's two other things which I am increasingly feeling.
1. Brexit has not (yet) been the disaster some were excitedly predicting. Yes there are teething issues but, frankly, it has gone quite smoothly so far. We have a trade deal and our vaccine rollout is undeniably faster thanks to shaking off the EU shackles.
2. The vaccine rollout is a STELLAR success so far. The UK is on course to be the global leader on mass vaccination of its citizens (Israel, UAE, Bahrain are doing well too with smaller populations). In a handful of months we will have the vast majority of the country vaccinated, the virus all but eliminated and our citizens able to travel the world as a result. It is absolutely clear that airlines in conjunction with the WHO are going to make vaccination the prerequisite for travel.
Yes there have been cock-ups and u-turns but Boris Johnson and Britain are doing alright.
Talking of traitors, the Americans briefly controlled an acre or so of British soil during their raid on Whitehaven in 1778.
https://www.history.com/this-day-in-history/john-paul-jones-leads-american-raid-on-whitehaven-england
The losers will be very vocal, and it could easily be a political disaster. May and Thatcher say hello.
I'd be surprised if it goes ahead.
So overall I can see this being a 21st century version of the Poll Tax.
The fact that stamp duty is being thrown into the mix tells me that some thought has been given on how to actually sell it.
It regularly tests British air defences, launches submarine incursions into our waters, hacks our networks and intelligence and carries out acts of state-sanctioned murder on our soil. Not to mention invading its neighbours and trying to destabilise NATO, which keeps us safe overall.
Those who doubt the veracity of this should read the recent cross-party parliamentary report on Russia.
I like CNN very much and I don't tend to 'watch' it. I use their website a lot for US news, along with NBC, ABC, NYT and Washington Post with occasional forays into FoxNews when I'm feeling robust enough to handle it.
I am merely pointing out about their current undue negativity towards Britain.
https://www.theguardian.com/music/2021/jan/16/how-a-scottish-posties-simple-sea-shanty-struck-a-global-chord
I like silly little markets like this.
https://grousebeater.wordpress.com/2021/01/15/holyrood-inquiry/
https://sourcenews.scot/robin-mcalpine-nicola-sturgeon-this-is-a-matter-of-the-integrity-of-scotland-as-a-nation/
https://grousebeater.wordpress.com/2021/01/10/salmonds-submission-to-inquiry/
That is because we have spent 4 or 5 years fucking ourselves.
That the US is also - albeit differently - fucked, is irrelevant. It’s not as if CNN did not report on the Capitol coup.
Even though I think property taxes in principle makes sense.
https://twitter.com/Survation/status/1350608757525508102?s=20
One of the great frustrations for me of this virus is that we have not focused on how you actually catch it. So, for example, we have been focusing on hand washing for over a year. Does it make any difference at all? I would suggest the evidence is no, that it is very difficult to pick up a sufficient load of the virus from a surface. We didn't get on to masks nearly early enough, possibly because there was a shortage of PPE for front line workers. Is it really dangerous to go within 1m of someone for a few seconds in a shop or other indoor setting? Is it dangerous to do that outdoors?
I wish we had a clearer picture of when and how we catch this. Inside for extended periods breathing poorly circulating air seems much more of an issue than social distancing.