That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
If a disease isn't spreading, it can't have an R of 100. It is 0.
No, a disease will have a base R in a standard population. NPIs can reduce that R and the perfect lockdown can reduce the R to 0, however, the base R of the disease doesn't change and if lockdown were ended viral replication would be 100 again.
IANAE but I think the base R (R0) must depend on the characteristics of the population it has invaded as well as the virus's own properties. Thus R0 would be 0 in a population of hermits whatever its infectivity.
As I understand it, that is the differrence between R0 and R. R0 is the base infection rate if there is no kind of intervention and is driven by the biology. R is the observed rate which is affected by things such as herd immunity, vaccination, distancing, lockdowns etc.
I understand the difference between R0 and Rt. What I am saying is that R0 is itself a function of the characteristics of the invaded population. Perhaps someone with knowledge of the subject can point me to chapter and verse that says it ain't so.
I think you're right yep.
"The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied. R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns."
Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Wasn't it claimed that former Defence Secretary Jim Mattis and some other members of Trumps cabinet had a plan in place to prevent him using the nuclear football if they feared he was about to go off the rails?
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Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
Lol no. Salmond wants to be back as leader. That is Cherry's problem. She knows a chunk of her support are just using her to wield the knife then get Salmond to take over.
That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
But even if they were, the lockdown might not be enough. You are describing a perfect lockdown, a la Wuhan, where everyone stays at home all day every day. Food is delivered (perhaps by robots or drones, as in Wuhan). Sick people are welded into their flats. And so forth.
This might be where we have to go. Gawd elp us
I think it's fair to say that the England's current lockdown is weaker than the one we had in March. If nothing else, schools have more kids in them. (Partly because the definition of key worker is looser, but also because schools are forced to accept children from 1 KW families this time.)
Even if Covid 2020 wasn't spreadier than Covid 2019, that would be a problem, and we all think it is.
The vaccine will come, and it will save most of us. But England had seriously ballsed up the meantime; we may vaccinate quicker but have more deaths on the way.
I'm a physicist, not an expert on people. But psychologically, I can't see this ending well for us.
Quite a few countries will be changed, traumatically, by this. I am sure the Storming of the Capitol would not have happened without the anger, sadness, frustration brought by Covid. So already we can see it wreaking damage beyond the health effects.
Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
You're generally so dry I cannot actually tell if Cherry being Salmond's protege is serious or comedic.
Sorry, I'll dampen up a bit
Protegé of Salmond (which a young Sturgeon definitely was) is too strong a word for a professional, middle aged woman who's been around the block a few times, but I would be HUGELY surprised if there wasn't fairly regular contact between Cherry and Salmond.
Is it even necessary? She's an advocate and can read between the lines and plan a lot better than most.
But what strikes me is how the Unionist media (ie almost all of it, and esp. the BBC of late, esp, in THAT film), Labour, LD and the Tories have been portraying Mr Salmond as Public Enemy No 1 for a decade and more (e.g. on those Tory election posters with him stealing "English" money). Positively dumping whole trailerloads of sharn on him in the last year or two.
And now they quote him as a credible source with which to attack the SNP?
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
Lol no. Salmond wants to be back as leader. That is Cherry's problem. She knows a chunk of her support are just using her to wield the knife then get Salmond to take over.
She's riding the Tiger.
Sorry to conjure up an image, but isn't a consequence of riding the tiger often said to be that the tiger ends up riding you?
That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
If a disease isn't spreading, it can't have an R of 100. It is 0.
No, a disease will have a base R in a standard population. NPIs can reduce that R and the perfect lockdown can reduce the R to 0, however, the base R of the disease doesn't change and if lockdown were ended viral replication would be 100 again.
IANAE but I think the base R (R0) must depend on the characteristics of the population it has invaded as well as the virus's own properties. Thus R0 would be 0 in a population of hermits whatever its infectivity.
As I understand it, that is the differrence between R0 and R. R0 is the base infection rate if there is no kind of intervention and is driven by the biology. R is the observed rate which is affected by things such as herd immunity, vaccination, distancing, lockdowns etc.
No, sorry, that isn't right. R0 is a function of the how infectious the pathogen is and number and types of contacts during the infectious period.
Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
If a disease isn't spreading, it can't have an R of 100. It is 0.
No, a disease will have a base R in a standard population. NPIs can reduce that R and the perfect lockdown can reduce the R to 0, however, the base R of the disease doesn't change and if lockdown were ended viral replication would be 100 again.
IANAE but I think the base R (R0) must depend on the characteristics of the population it has invaded as well as the virus's own properties. Thus R0 would be 0 in a population of hermits whatever its infectivity.
As I understand it, that is the differrence between R0 and R. R0 is the base infection rate if there is no kind of intervention and is driven by the biology. R is the observed rate which is affected by things such as herd immunity, vaccination, distancing, lockdowns etc.
I understand the difference between R0 and Rt. What I am saying is that R0 is itself a function of the characteristics of the invaded population. Perhaps someone with knowledge of the subject can point me to chapter and verse that says it ain't so.
I think you're right yep.
"The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied. R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns."
Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
Your help would be ENORMOUSLY appreciated.
Subscribed. Will I now get loads of annoying notifications?!
There even thicker than the average Brexit supporter (apols to the intelligent ones, some of whom who frequent this site)
But are they thicker than the average remainer, many of whom inhabited the House of Commons between 2017-2019?
Er, yes without a doubt. The "remainers" who were ousted by the fat little Clown were all quite clever chaps and lasses, they were simply out numbered by the swivel eyed . Sorry, you will have to do better than that. The leave camp and the MAGA thugs have a very similar demographic. It doesnt mean they are all stupid and uneducated, just that they seem to revel in that description. What we have seen in US is what happens when populists promise things they can't deliver. Now cue the righteous indignation no doubt.
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
Lol no. Salmond wants to be back as leader. That is Cherry's problem. She knows a chunk of her support are just using her to wield the knife then get Salmond to take over.
There even thicker than the average Brexit supporter (apols to the intelligent ones, some of whom who frequent this site)
But are they thicker than the average remainer, many of whom inhabited the House of Commons between 2017-2019?
Er, yes without a doubt. The "remainers" who were ousted by the fat little Clown were all quite clever chaps and lasses, they were simply out numbered by the swivel eyed . Sorry, you will have to do better than that. The leave camp and the MAGA thugs have a very similar demographic. It doesnt mean they are all stupid and uneducated, just that they seem to revel in that description. What we have seen in US is what happens when populists promise things they can't deliver. Now cue the righteous indignation no doubt.
Na, every little scheme and ploy only made things worse for them. Benn Act, anyone?
It's such absolute horseshit. Even aside from the fact you don't want a treasonous Trump in charge for a second longer than neccessary the only reason McCarthy is now squawking about coming together is because the GOP has lost control of both legislatures and the executive. And after voting to throw out Biden's win in congress, an utterly disgraceful step for someone who isn't a minority leader - the man has no shame whatsoever. The GOP would be better off politically removing Trump from office (And making sure he can't run again) but they're too thick to realise it at this point.
There even thicker than the average Brexit supporter (apols to the intelligent ones, some of whom who frequent this site)
But are they thicker than the average remainer, many of whom inhabited the House of Commons between 2017-2019?
JUst get Jane Goodall to decide. It's easy, actually, the ones who jump up and down like something out of 2001 and make monkey noises whenever Mr Johnson finishes a joke.
That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I am hoping the end of February. I think things will start to move really fast once we have got adequate supplies on hand.
I think it's more likely that the date is earlier rather than later. 20 million doses of AZN will go a long way to controlling this thing.
There even thicker than the average Brexit supporter (apols to the intelligent ones, some of whom who frequent this site)
But are they thicker than the average remainer, many of whom inhabited the House of Commons between 2017-2019?
Er, yes without a doubt. The "remainers" who were ousted by the fat little Clown were all quite clever chaps and lasses, they were simply out numbered by the swivel eyed . Sorry, you will have to do better than that. The leave camp and the MAGA thugs have a very similar demographic. It doesnt mean they are all stupid and uneducated, just that they seem to revel in that description. What we have seen in US is what happens when populists promise things they can't deliver. Now cue the righteous indignation no doubt.
I was actually thinking more of the Labour remainers who were too dumb to realise that voting for May’s deal was a) their best option for Brexit and b) would have caused serious trouble in the Tory Party and given them a decent chance of winning the subsequent election.
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
You're generally so dry I cannot actually tell if Cherry being Salmond's protege is serious or comedic.
Sorry, I'll dampen up a bit
Protegé of Salmond (which a young Sturgeon definitely was) is too strong a word for a professional, middle aged woman who's been around the block a few times, but I would be HUGELY surprised if there wasn't fairly regular contact between Cherry and Salmond.
Is it even necessary? She's an advocate and can read between the lines and plan a lot better than most.
But what strikes me is how the Unionist media (ie almost all of it, and esp. the BBC of late, esp, in THAT film), Labour, LD and the Tories have been portraying Mr Salmond as Public Enemy No 1 for a decade and more (e.g. on those Tory election posters with him stealing "English" money). Positively dumping whole trailerloads of sharn on him in the last year or two.
And now they quote him as a credible source with which to attack the SNP?
Well yes, that is notable. Even on here certain parties who were once positively salivating at the prospect of Salmond getting his comeuppance now seem to be strangely concerned at his treatment by the EssEnnPee (not so much the press of course). Not an edifying sight.
Completely OT but this is something of an oddity these days. An article in that it is informative, contains clear, detailed scientific information which is accurate and relevant but explained in such way as to be accessible to the layman and, most importantly, in no way sensationalises the subject.
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Do you assume he could have unilaterally decided to use nuclear weapons at any point in his presidency and there were no checks and balances in place? I would be amazed were that the case.
I don't think he could have. He would have been stopped. In fact I think he has been "managed" throughout his 4 years. It would have been catastrophic otherwise.
Oh FFS, people get palpitations of worry if we don't get an early phone call from the US President, of course world leaders went to meet him and kiss his arse.
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Do you assume he could have unilaterally decided to use nuclear weapons at any point in his presidency and there were no checks and balances in place? I would be amazed were that the case.
I don't think he could have. He would have been stopped. In fact I think he has been "managed" throughout his 4 years. It would have been catastrophic otherwise.
The difference is now it's all out in the open. He has very little authority left ; I'm not sure what he can and cannot do.
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Do you assume he could have unilaterally decided to use nuclear weapons at any point in his presidency and there were no checks and balances in place? I would be amazed were that the case.
I don't think he could have. He would have been stopped. In fact I think he has been "managed" throughout his 4 years. It would have been catastrophic otherwise.
Yes, I'm sure you are right. In fact I think he has been persistently humoured throughout the entire period. I also think we are seeing the shortcomings and dangers of that strategy and beginning to understand why direct confrontation would have been better from the outset.
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Do you assume he could have unilaterally decided to use nuclear weapons at any point in his presidency and there were no checks and balances in place? I would be amazed were that the case.
I don't think he could have. He would have been stopped. In fact I think he has been "managed" throughout his 4 years. It would have been catastrophic otherwise.
The difference is now it's all out in the open. He has very little authority left ; I'm not sure what he can and cannot do.
Well, he could issue several thousand pardons for a start, including for all those implicated in the disorder at the Capitol.
Oh FFS, people get palpitations of worry if we don't get an early phone call from the US President, of course world leaders went to meet him and kiss his arse.
It's so phoney.
It's not, and although you're good on several other questions, I'm afraid you're persistently wrong on this one. There was nothing run of the mill about the Tory relationship with Trump ; it was founded deep in personal contacts that Trump shared with no other governments.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think that makes them the same government ; but it's important to keep reminding of this, so that the government and governing party thinks very carefully about its direction in future.
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
Lol no. Salmond wants to be back as leader. That is Cherry's problem. She knows a chunk of her support are just using her to wield the knife then get Salmond to take over.
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Do you assume he could have unilaterally decided to use nuclear weapons at any point in his presidency and there were no checks and balances in place? I would be amazed were that the case.
Apparently it is. Excuse me using a quote from Wikipedia but it is the quickest source for this:
"Before the order can be processed by the military, the President must be positively identified using a special code issued on a plastic card, nicknamed the "biscuit". The United States has a two-man rule in place at nuclear launch facilities, and while only the president can order the release of nuclear weapons, the order must be verified by the Secretary of Defense to be an authentic order given by the president (there is a hierarchy of succession in the event that the president is killed in an attack). This verification process deals solely with verifying that the order came from the actual president. The Secretary of Defense has no veto power and must comply with the president's order."
Defending your team and your man regardless of how many he kills through his gross negligence
If O'Brien understood how the daily totals work after 9 months of this then his point might have more weight.
He doesn't care. He doesn't even care about all those people who have died except as a weapon to be used against Johnson. The man has no morals. He is just as bad as Johnson except on the other wing of politics.
This is a sprint, not a marathon, and right now it is a sprint we are LOSING. We are hurtling towards the brick wall of a crashed health system, the brakes are nearly gone, the throttle is jammed, we are accelerating.
I fear I wasn't exaggerating when I said these coming weeks are potentially the most dangerous for the UK since WW2
I think one problem is there was such a big deal made about the health system crashing last March, flatten that curve etc and it didn't, no Nightingales were used, that when the message comes around again, too many people say yeah yeah, you said that last time. I doubt they fully grasp how bad Cockney Covid is.
I walked around central London yesterday, with a friend (at a distance). We went from Trafalgar Sq down the South Bank.
Interestingly, it was a route I took on a walk in lockdown 1, in the spring. Back then, the scene ws utterly desolate. Barely a soul.
This time it was very quiet, but there was noticeably more activity. Joggers, tourists (it looked like), cyclists, market traders... and yes I suppose I ws one of them, but at least I am rightly terrified.
How close are we to a Wuhan-style meltdown?
We said the same here on Tuesday but this afternoon it was very quiet, almost deserted. It might be that changed guidelines take a few days to filter through. Not everyone is watching politics 24x7.
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If I recall some quotes from the first impeachment, some there essentially argue that is wrong for anyone but the voters to remove the president, and therefore presumably disagree with impeachment as a concept, though some did not seem to make that connection and I wonder if he is the same.
Oh FFS, people get palpitations of worry if we don't get an early phone call from the US President, of course world leaders went to meet him and kiss his arse.
It's so phoney.
It's not, and although you're good on several other questions, I'm afraid you're persistently wrong on this particular one. There was nothing run of the mill about the Tory relationship with Trump ; it was founded deep in personal contacts that Trump shared with no other governments.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think that makes them the same government ; but it's important to keep reminding of this, so that the government and governing party thinks very carefully about its direction in future.
I agree more with kle4, but even if you are right ...
For THIS country, May's or Johnson's relationship with Trump was nowhere near as damaging as New Labour's relationship with George W Bush.
Trump has done way more damage to the US than George W. -- but thankfully most of the damage has not directly affected us.
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Wasn't it claimed that former Defence Secretary Jim Mattis and some other members of Trumps cabinet had a plan in place to prevent him using the nuclear football if they feared he was about to go off the rails?
Here's that Double Down you ordered, Mr President.
But I never...you know what, never mind, give it here.
(Note: I would totally go for a Double Down myself)
So really the 25th Amendment has already been informally invoked, as it may have been on Wednesday when Pence gave the orders.
There's never been a situation like that in modern American history ; I wonder what else he's free and not free to do.
Do you assume he could have unilaterally decided to use nuclear weapons at any point in his presidency and there were no checks and balances in place? I would be amazed were that the case.
Apparently it is. Excuse me using a quote from Wikipedia but it is the quickest source for this:
"Before the order can be processed by the military, the President must be positively identified using a special code issued on a plastic card, nicknamed the "biscuit". The United States has a two-man rule in place at nuclear launch facilities, and while only the president can order the release of nuclear weapons, the order must be verified by the Secretary of Defense to be an authentic order given by the president (there is a hierarchy of succession in the event that the president is killed in an attack). This verification process deals solely with verifying that the order came from the actual president. The Secretary of Defense has no veto power and must comply with the president's order."
You are correct, as is Wikipedia for once.
Although I wonder if Pence and Pompeo have adopted a Schlesinger strategy:
This is a sprint, not a marathon, and right now it is a sprint we are LOSING. We are hurtling towards the brick wall of a crashed health system, the brakes are nearly gone, the throttle is jammed, we are accelerating.
I fear I wasn't exaggerating when I said these coming weeks are potentially the most dangerous for the UK since WW2
I think one problem is there was such a big deal made about the health system crashing last March, flatten that curve etc and it didn't, no Nightingales were used, that when the message comes around again, too many people say yeah yeah, you said that last time. I doubt they fully grasp how bad Cockney Covid is.
I walked around central London yesterday, with a friend (at a distance). We went from Trafalgar Sq down the South Bank.
Interestingly, it was a route I took on a walk in lockdown 1, in the spring. Back then, the scene ws utterly desolate. Barely a soul.
This time it was very quiet, but there was noticeably more activity. Joggers, tourists (it looked like), cyclists, market traders... and yes I suppose I ws one of them, but at least I am rightly terrified.
How close are we to a Wuhan-style meltdown?
We said the same here on Tuesday but this afternoon it was very quiet, almost deserted. It might be that changed guidelines take a few days to filter through. Not everyone is watching politics 24x7.
One of the things that was obvious to us in Lincolnshire during the first lockdown was the relative quiet because of the lack of cars on the roads - we are on a fairly busy A road linking two towns. It lasted for weeks and was quite wonderful.
I have to say that this time around I have seen no reduction whatsoever in the numbers of vehicles. There is little, if any, outward sign of lockdown until you go into a town and see the closed shops.
Oh FFS, people get palpitations of worry if we don't get an early phone call from the US President, of course world leaders went to meet him and kiss his arse.
It's so phoney.
It's not, and although you're good on several other questions, I'm afraid you're persistently wrong on this particular one. There was nothing run of the mill about the Tory relationship with Trump ; it was founded deep in personal contacts that Trump shared with no other governments.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think that makes them the same government ; but it's important to keep reminding of this, so that the government and governing party thinks very carefully about its direction in future.
I agree more with kle4, but even if you are right ...
For THIS country, May's or Johnson's relationship with Trump was nowhere near as damaging as New Labour's relationship with George W Bush.
Trump has done way more damage to the US than George W. -- but thankfully most of the damage has not directly affected us.
From a different vantage point, George W Bush's damage was to the image of America's foreign policy around the world, and Britain's by extension for tagging along. Trump's damage is to the image and integrity of democracy itself.
That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
If a disease isn't spreading, it can't have an R of 100. It is 0.
No, a disease will have a base R in a standard population. NPIs can reduce that R and the perfect lockdown can reduce the R to 0, however, the base R of the disease doesn't change and if lockdown were ended viral replication would be 100 again.
IANAE but I think the base R (R0) must depend on the characteristics of the population it has invaded as well as the virus's own properties. Thus R0 would be 0 in a population of hermits whatever its infectivity.
I usually like maths in society but I don't find the R number adds much to my understanding of the pandemic. It is what it is and it's computed from the spread. It's not a property of the virus causing the spread. When people say "we have to get the R below 1" it just means "we have to stop the virus spreading". But fair enough - it's lexicon now. And maybe it does help people picture things.
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
You're generally so dry I cannot actually tell if Cherry being Salmond's protege is serious or comedic.
Sorry, I'll dampen up a bit
Protegé of Salmond (which a young Sturgeon definitely was) is too strong a word for a professional, middle aged woman who's been around the block a few times, but I would be HUGELY surprised if there wasn't fairly regular contact between Cherry and Salmond.
Is it even necessary? She's an advocate and can read between the lines and plan a lot better than most.
But what strikes me is how the Unionist media (ie almost all of it, and esp. the BBC of late, esp, in THAT film), Labour, LD and the Tories have been portraying Mr Salmond as Public Enemy No 1 for a decade and more (e.g. on those Tory election posters with him stealing "English" money). Positively dumping whole trailerloads of sharn on him in the last year or two.
And now they quote him as a credible source with which to attack the SNP?
Well yes, that is notable. Even on here certain parties who were once positively salivating at the prospect of Salmond getting his comeuppance now seem to be strangely concerned at his treatment by the EssEnnPee (not so much the press of course). Not an edifying sight.
Alleged comeuppance, tbf - though they certainly had it in mind his daring to give Mr CAmeron et al a sudden need for biological detergent and new brown slacks.
I hope all those on the left who were (rightly) outraged by this were as prompt in retweeting their outrage at, for example, the Labour concillor who said that Hitler was "the greatest man in history".
If I recall some quotes from the first impeachment, some there essentially argue that is wrong for anyone but the voters to remove the president, and therefore presumably disagree with impeachment as a concept, though some did not seem to make that connection and I wonder if he is the same.
Of course in this case, the President has *already* been removed by the voters!
If I recall some quotes from the first impeachment, some there essentially argue that is wrong for anyone but the voters to remove the president, and therefore presumably disagree with impeachment as a concept, though some did not seem to make that connection and I wonder if he is the same.
A man who obviously has a lot of money riding on "Next President Joe Biden."
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Oh FFS, people get palpitations of worry if we don't get an early phone call from the US President, of course world leaders went to meet him and kiss his arse.
It's so phoney.
It's not, and although you're good on several other questions, I'm afraid you're persistently wrong on this one. There was nothing run of the mill about the Tory relationship with Trump ; it was founded deep in personal contacts that Trump shared with no other governments.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think that makes them the same government ; but it's important to keep reminding of this, so that the government and governing party thinks very carefully about its direction in future.
People share that picture of May as if it shows they are bosom buddies. It is lazy and silly, particularly when even if you want to suggest the relationship was closer than run of the mill, a photo of world leaders meeting in their official capacities does not prove anything of the sort and is designed to mislead. Pictures of Blair, Brown, Cameron, Macron, Trudeau, whoever anyone cares to mention, meeting with another world leader who we dislike would not prove anything either.
So my personal view is people can argue that the relationship was too close and you at least make the argument, but if people seem more interested in sharing dank memes of May holding hands with Trump and losing their shit over it I don't think that is their priority. Because whoever was President, May would have been meeting with them.
And no, a tweet is not the place for indepth analysis, but it could still be done with more intelligence than a tweet as relevant as juding Ed M by only using the bacon sandwich photo.
I don't have an issue with people suggesting some similarities or closeness, I simply think people take it way too far and it becomes ridiculous.
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Your help would be ENORMOUSLY appreciated.
Done.
Up to 93.
C’mon guys, given all Mr Smithson Jr does for us surely another eight people can tap one link?
This is a sprint, not a marathon, and right now it is a sprint we are LOSING. We are hurtling towards the brick wall of a crashed health system, the brakes are nearly gone, the throttle is jammed, we are accelerating.
I fear I wasn't exaggerating when I said these coming weeks are potentially the most dangerous for the UK since WW2
I think one problem is there was such a big deal made about the health system crashing last March, flatten that curve etc and it didn't, no Nightingales were used, that when the message comes around again, too many people say yeah yeah, you said that last time. I doubt they fully grasp how bad Cockney Covid is.
I walked around central London yesterday, with a friend (at a distance). We went from Trafalgar Sq down the South Bank.
Interestingly, it was a route I took on a walk in lockdown 1, in the spring. Back then, the scene ws utterly desolate. Barely a soul.
This time it was very quiet, but there was noticeably more activity. Joggers, tourists (it looked like), cyclists, market traders... and yes I suppose I ws one of them, but at least I am rightly terrified.
How close are we to a Wuhan-style meltdown?
We said the same here on Tuesday but this afternoon it was very quiet, almost deserted. It might be that changed guidelines take a few days to filter through. Not everyone is watching politics 24x7.
One of the things that was obvious to us in Lincolnshire during the first lockdown was the relative quiet because of the lack of cars on the roads - we are on a fairly busy A road linking two towns. It lasted for weeks and was quite wonderful.
I have to say that this time around I have seen no reduction whatsoever in the numbers of vehicles. There is little, if any, outward sign of lockdown until you go into a town and see the closed shops.
Yes. The traffic does not seem to have declined. And the petrol station has been rammed all week. Which raises this question. Where are they all going to?
That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
But even if they were, the lockdown might not be enough. You are describing a perfect lockdown, a la Wuhan, where everyone stays at home all day every day. Food is delivered (perhaps by robots or drones, as in Wuhan). Sick people are welded into their flats. And so forth.
This might be where we have to go. Gawd elp us
I think it's fair to say that the England's current lockdown is weaker than the one we had in March. If nothing else, schools have more kids in them. (Partly because the definition of key worker is looser, but also because schools are forced to accept children from 1 KW families this time.)
Even if Covid 2020 wasn't spreadier than Covid 2019, that would be a problem, and we all think it is.
The vaccine will come, and it will save most of us. But England had seriously ballsed up the meantime; we may vaccinate quicker but have more deaths on the way.
I'm a physicist, not an expert on people. But psychologically, I can't see this ending well for us.
Quite a few countries will be changed, traumatically, by this. I am sure the Storming of the Capitol would not have happened without the anger, sadness, frustration brought by Covid. So already we can see it wreaking damage beyond the health effects.
Ah, this is clearly some new meaning of the word "sure" that I was previously unaware of.
I hope all those on the left who were (rightly) outraged by this were as prompt in retweeting their outrage at, for example, the Labour concillor who said that Hitler was "the greatest man in history".
I doubt that one got as much press, but I'm sure most of those in both cases woudl condemn unconditionally. There's little political benefit to defending someone for making positive Hitler remarks.
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
Lol no. Salmond wants to be back as leader. That is Cherry's problem. She knows a chunk of her support are just using her to wield the knife then get Salmond to take over.
Oh FFS, people get palpitations of worry if we don't get an early phone call from the US President, of course world leaders went to meet him and kiss his arse.
It's so phoney.
It's not, and although you're good on several other questions, I'm afraid you're persistently wrong on this particular one. There was nothing run of the mill about the Tory relationship with Trump ; it was founded deep in personal contacts that Trump shared with no other governments.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think that makes them the same government ; but it's important to keep reminding of this, so that the government and governing party thinks very carefully about its direction in future.
I agree more with kle4, but even if you are right ...
For THIS country, May's or Johnson's relationship with Trump was nowhere near as damaging as New Labour's relationship with George W Bush.
Trump has done way more damage to the US than George W. -- but thankfully most of the damage has not directly affected us.
From a different vantage point, George W Bush's damage was to the image of America's foreign policy around the world, and Britain's by extension for tagging along. Trump's damage is to the image and integrity of democracy itself.
I agree about George W.
About Trump, I am not sure I do agree. The events in the Capitol have ... err, bigly .. backfired, and are already the subject of widespread ridicule.
I'd say Trump's real damage has been to race relations in the US. It was already a poisoned well & Trump has emptied many tonnes more cyanide to the toxins already in the water.
(To be clear, I am not minimising Trump's crime at the Capitol, I have already said he should be removed from office & left to rot in jail).
If I recall some quotes from the first impeachment, some there essentially argue that is wrong for anyone but the voters to remove the president, and therefore presumably disagree with impeachment as a concept, though some did not seem to make that connection and I wonder if he is the same.
A man who obviously has a lot of money riding on "Next President Joe Biden."
Unles Trump dies or resigns Biden will be next POTUS. There isn’t time to remove him from office against his will.
We shouldn’t rule either out at this moment, however. He’s had a truly shocking week entirely of his own making and feelings are running very high. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s changed his tone so abruptly because he’s been warned his life is now in considerable danger. Even if he isn’t a heightened target for assassination, he’s so disgraced and discredited, and facing so much trouble when he leaves office, that even he must be feeling rather shocked.
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Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
Lol no. Salmond wants to be back as leader. That is Cherry's problem. She knows a chunk of her support are just using her to wield the knife then get Salmond to take over.
I hope all those on the left who were (rightly) outraged by this were as prompt in retweeting their outrage at, for example, the Labour concillor who said that Hitler was "the greatest man in history".
Hopefully none of us 'on the left' would be indulging in weedy whataboutery by linking to a story *checks notes* from more than 4 years ago about a councilor.
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Oh FFS, people get palpitations of worry if we don't get an early phone call from the US President, of course world leaders went to meet him and kiss his arse.
It's so phoney.
It's not, and although you're good on several other questions, I'm afraid you're persistently wrong on this one. There was nothing run of the mill about the Tory relationship with Trump ; it was founded deep in personal contacts that Trump shared with no other governments.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think that makes them the same government ; but it's important to keep reminding of this, so that the government and governing party thinks very carefully about its direction in future.
People share that picture of May as if it shows they are bosom buddies. It is lazy and silly, particularly when even if you want to suggest the relationship was closer than run of the mill, a photo of world leaders meeting in their official capacities does not prove anything of the sort and is designed to mislead. Pictures of Blair, Brown, Cameron, Macron, Trudeau, whoever anyone cares to mention, meeting with another world leader who we dislike would not prove anything either.
So my personal view is people can argue that the relationship was too close and you at least make the argument, but if people seem more interested in sharing dank memes of May holding hands with Trump and losing their shit over it I don't think that is their priority. Because whoever was President, May would have been meeting with them.
And no, a tweet is not the place for indepth analysis, but it could still be done with more intelligence than a tweet as relevant as juding Ed M by only using the bacon sandwich photo.
You might reasonably object to a twitter photo, but in this case I don't feel the need to preface it, because the concrete background to that closeness is well-known to most of us. Multiple backroom staff between 2016 and 2019 shared personal and political contacts ; at the front the leaders professed shared aims ; and often the whole process from back to front was actually even advertised extremely openly, as with the Gove, Trump and Murdoch meeting. That's all there is to it, I would say.
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That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
But even if they were, the lockdown might not be enough. You are describing a perfect lockdown, a la Wuhan, where everyone stays at home all day every day. Food is delivered (perhaps by robots or drones, as in Wuhan). Sick people are welded into their flats. And so forth.
This might be where we have to go. Gawd elp us
I think it's fair to say that the England's current lockdown is weaker than the one we had in March. If nothing else, schools have more kids in them. (Partly because the definition of key worker is looser, but also because schools are forced to accept children from 1 KW families this time.)
Even if Covid 2020 wasn't spreadier than Covid 2019, that would be a problem, and we all think it is.
The vaccine will come, and it will save most of us. But England had seriously ballsed up the meantime; we may vaccinate quicker but have more deaths on the way.
I'm a physicist, not an expert on people. But psychologically, I can't see this ending well for us.
Quite a few countries will be changed, traumatically, by this. I am sure the Storming of the Capitol would not have happened without the anger, sadness, frustration brought by Covid. So already we can see it wreaking damage beyond the health effects.
Ah, this is clearly some new meaning of the word "sure" that I was previously unaware of.
"Sure: (adjective) certain; without any doubt:"
For a start, without Covid Trump would have won. Meaning no need for a coup. So I am sure on that basis.
Also, the Trumpite right's anger has been stoked by the BLM/antifa riots of the summer, and they too were amplified by the Covid disaster in the first place, in so many ways.
Thirdly, the right has been electrified by its opposition to overweening lockdowns, maskers v antimaskers etc
All these Covid roads led down to Pennsylvania Avenue on Wednesday
Most of them are wrong. An ellipsis can be an arbitrary number of dots, none of which is correctly called a full stop. Colons don't just start lists. Boots are not shoes. The list go's on.
I hope all those on the left who were (rightly) outraged by this were as prompt in retweeting their outrage at, for example, the Labour concillor who said that Hitler was "the greatest man in history".
Hopefully none of us 'on the left' would be indulging in weedy whataboutery by linking to a story *checks notes* from more than 4 years ago about a councilor.
If I recall some quotes from the first impeachment, some there essentially argue that is wrong for anyone but the voters to remove the president, and therefore presumably disagree with impeachment as a concept, though some did not seem to make that connection and I wonder if he is the same.
A man who obviously has a lot of money riding on "Next President Joe Biden."
Unles Trump dies or resigns Biden will be next POTUS. There isn’t time to remove him from office against his will.
We shouldn’t rule either out at this moment, however. He’s had a truly shocking week entirely of his own making and feelings are running very high. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s changed his tone so abruptly because he’s been warned his life is now in considerable danger. Even if he isn’t a heightened target for assassination, he’s so disgraced and discredited, and facing so much trouble when he leaves office, that even he must be feeling rather shocked.
I can't honestly see him being removed but I was interested to read that he could be impeached pretty summarily now:
Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
Is it like a Blue Peter appeal where they reach the official target in the first half an hour and then keep setting higher ones? Is there a bonus for 200, say?
That testing curve you see? That's *exactly* what we're going to see with vaccinations. It'll start slowly and grow and grow.
Over the course of a week, we'll go from "we're not doing enough!" to "oh, the end is in sight". I forecast that week to be in the first half of March.
I pray you are right, and you might well be right, the problem is can we get to March without total apocalypse?
I do not see how the NHS can sustain 3000+ new patients every day. IF it stays at that level. That's at least 150,000 new patients by the end of Feb. Impossible.
At that point Neil Ferguson's original prediction (much derided on here) of a possible death toll from Covid plus a crashed NHS, comes into focus. 500,000 dead.
The vaccines and lockdowns need to start working very very soon.
The lockdown will start showing effects by the beginning of next week. Yes, the new variant is more contagious.
But if people aren't seeing other people, the virus won't spread.
Go look at Belgium - disaster on the vaccines front, but at least they've got their second wave under control.
We don't know if these lockdowns are sufficient, against Supercovid, to drive R under 1. That is the enormous question yet to be answered.
Belgium is encouraging, but they didn't have the Cockney Pest, did they?
A disease can have an R of 100: if people simply aren't in contact with other people, then it won't spread.
A bigger issue is simply that lots of people are ignoring the lockdown.
But even if they were, the lockdown might not be enough. You are describing a perfect lockdown, a la Wuhan, where everyone stays at home all day every day. Food is delivered (perhaps by robots or drones, as in Wuhan). Sick people are welded into their flats. And so forth.
This might be where we have to go. Gawd elp us
I think it's fair to say that the England's current lockdown is weaker than the one we had in March. If nothing else, schools have more kids in them. (Partly because the definition of key worker is looser, but also because schools are forced to accept children from 1 KW families this time.)
Even if Covid 2020 wasn't spreadier than Covid 2019, that would be a problem, and we all think it is.
The vaccine will come, and it will save most of us. But England had seriously ballsed up the meantime; we may vaccinate quicker but have more deaths on the way.
I'm a physicist, not an expert on people. But psychologically, I can't see this ending well for us.
Quite a few countries will be changed, traumatically, by this. I am sure the Storming of the Capitol would not have happened without the anger, sadness, frustration brought by Covid. So already we can see it wreaking damage beyond the health effects.
Ah, this is clearly some new meaning of the word "sure" that I was previously unaware of.
"Sure: (adjective) certain; without any doubt:"
For a start, without Covid Trump would have won. Meaning no need for a coup. So I am sure on that basis.
Also, the Trumpite right's anger has been stoked by the BLM/antifa riots of the summer, and they too were amplified by the Covid disaster in the first place, in so many ways.
Thirdly, the right has been electrified by its opposition to overweening lockdowns, maskers v antimaskers etc
All these Covid roads led down to Pennsylvania Avenue on Wednesday
So, yes, I am sure
So why did 7 million MORE people vote for Biden than for Trump? What electrified them?
Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
Could you go to the YouTube channel of my business (Just Auto Insurance - https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA) and subscribe. We need to get to 100 subscribers by close of business today, and we're at 51. (We're competing with another company with almost the same name!)
Very pleased to have helped, Rob, but won't the organisers of this little contest be suspicious of so much interest in insurance in Arizona by british residents? It reminds me a bit of the skulduggery some engaged in on here to try and win the now defunct Tipster of the Year Competition. Truly shocking, it was, but I suppose all's fair....
Alex Salmond has launched an extraordinary personal attack on Nicola Sturgeon, calling her testimony to the inquiry into sexual assault claims made against him “simply untrue”.
In his submission to the inquiry, the former first minister said Ms Sturgeon misled parliament and broken the ministerial code which, if he is proven to be correct, would almost certainly spell the end of her political career.
Mr Salmond said the breaches included a failure to inform the civil service in good time of her meetings with him, and allowing the Scottish government to contest a civil court case against him despite having had legal advice that it was likely to collapse.
The allegations against Ms Sturgeon, who replaced Mr Salmond as first minister and leader of the SNP after the 2014 independence referendum, show how far relations have soured between the two most influential figures in the SNP have become.
The ministerial code says that any meetings about government business should be recorded and that ministers must ensure the government complies with the law. A minister found to have knowingly misled Holyrood “will be expected to offer their resignation”.
No. I bet on the 2020 market where I was correct and numerous No Mark Scotch experts were wrong. As a result this story is not relevant to my interests.
That said it smells like a process story to me.
I presume having seen the uselessness of the clown cars that are the alternative parties for indy, Salmond is now pinning his hopes on his protegé Cherry to be his representative on earth, and damn the consequences.
Lol no. Salmond wants to be back as leader. That is Cherry's problem. She knows a chunk of her support are just using her to wield the knife then get Salmond to take over.
Comments
"The basic reproduction number (R0), also called the basic reproduction ratio or rate or the basic reproductive rate, is an epidemiologic metric used to describe the contagiousness or transmissibility of infectious agents. R0 is affected by numerous biological, sociobehavioral, and environmental factors that govern pathogen transmission and, therefore, is usually estimated with various types of complex mathematical models, which make R0 easily misrepresented, misinterpreted, and misapplied. R0 is not a biological constant for a pathogen, a rate over time, or a measure of disease severity, and R0 cannot be modified through vaccination campaigns."
https://wwwnc.cdc.gov/eid/article/25/1/17-1901_article#:~:text=R0 is not a,be modified through vaccination campaigns.
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA
60 subscribers now
She's riding the Tiger.
Gerald Ford would approve.
But what strikes me is how the Unionist media (ie almost all of it, and esp. the BBC of late, esp, in THAT film), Labour, LD and the Tories have been portraying Mr Salmond as Public Enemy No 1 for a decade and more (e.g. on those Tory election posters with him stealing "English" money). Positively dumping whole trailerloads of sharn on him in the last year or two.
And now they quote him as a credible source with which to attack the SNP?
p.s. Thanks! (I thought I was replying to Eristdoof)
The GOP would be better off politically removing Trump from office (And making sure he can't run again) but they're too thick to realise it at this point.
Even on here certain parties who were once positively salivating at the prospect of Salmond getting his comeuppance now seem to be strangely concerned at his treatment by the EssEnnPee (not so much the press of course). Not an edifying sight.
https://www.forbes.com/sites/davidbressan/2019/05/19/gemstone-found-in-king-tuts-tomb-formed-when-a-meteor-collided-with-earth
https://twitter.com/rafaelbehr/status/1347613704926457865
And still the Brexiteers clap
It's so phoney.
Q: Why did the coup fail?
A: No US Embassy in Washington providing logistical support.
As I mentioned yesterday, I don't think that makes them the same government ; but it's important to keep reminding of this, so that the government and governing party thinks very carefully about its direction in future.
"Before the order can be processed by the military, the President must be positively identified using a special code issued on a plastic card, nicknamed the "biscuit". The United States has a two-man rule in place at nuclear launch facilities, and while only the president can order the release of nuclear weapons, the order must be verified by the Secretary of Defense to be an authentic order given by the president (there is a hierarchy of succession in the event that the president is killed in an attack). This verification process deals solely with verifying that the order came from the actual president. The Secretary of Defense has no veto power and must comply with the president's order."
https://twitter.com/bensiegel/status/1347611132727586816
MWAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAAH!!!!
https://twitter.com/Suntimes/status/1347604246473175040
https://twitter.com/BNONews/status/1347614784129294343
For THIS country, May's or Johnson's relationship with Trump was nowhere near as damaging as New Labour's relationship with George W Bush.
Trump has done way more damage to the US than George W. -- but thankfully most of the damage has not directly affected us.
But I never...you know what, never mind, give it here.
(Note: I would totally go for a Double Down myself)
Although I wonder if Pence and Pompeo have adopted a Schlesinger strategy:
https://www.politico.com/magazine/story/2017/08/11/donald-trump-nuclear-weapons-richard-nixon-215478
I do hope they have. It seems an obvious precaution even if it’s of dubious legality.
I have to say that this time around I have seen no reduction whatsoever in the numbers of vehicles. There is little, if any, outward sign of lockdown until you go into a town and see the closed shops.
Yeah, right.....
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2016/04/10/labour-councillor-suspended-over-claims-she-called-hitler-the-gr/
https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA (Your link has a rogue closing bracket at the end that screws things up.)
90 subscribers now - getting exciting!
So my personal view is people can argue that the relationship was too close and you at least make the argument, but if people seem more interested in sharing dank memes of May holding hands with Trump and losing their shit over it I don't think that is their priority. Because whoever was President, May would have been meeting with them.
And no, a tweet is not the place for indepth analysis, but it could still be done with more intelligence than a tweet as relevant as juding Ed M by only using the bacon sandwich photo.
I don't have an issue with people suggesting some similarities or closeness, I simply think people take it way too far and it becomes ridiculous.
C’mon guys, given all Mr Smithson Jr does for us surely another eight people can tap one link?
Which raises this question.
Where are they all going to?
About Trump, I am not sure I do agree. The events in the Capitol have ... err, bigly .. backfired, and are already the subject of widespread ridicule.
I'd say Trump's real damage has been to race relations in the US. It was already a poisoned well & Trump has emptied many tonnes more cyanide to the toxins already in the water.
(To be clear, I am not minimising Trump's crime at the Capitol, I have already said he should be removed from office & left to rot in jail).
We shouldn’t rule either out at this moment, however. He’s had a truly shocking week entirely of his own making and feelings are running very high. It wouldn’t surprise me if he’s changed his tone so abruptly because he’s been warned his life is now in considerable danger. Even if he isn’t a heightened target for assassination, he’s so disgraced and discredited, and facing so much trouble when he leaves office, that even he must be feeling rather shocked.
And thanks to all the PBers who've helped.
And thanks in advance to those who are about to click on https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC7ab43rJxA87wpPRvPCZOqA
and SUBSCRIBE!
Ah, my coat.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/bitesize/articles/zvj7vk7
(Ahem... 7/7 for yours truly.)
Just google for good quotes and find one that makes the same point but without being from Hitler.
For a start, without Covid Trump would have won. Meaning no need for a coup. So I am sure on that basis.
Also, the Trumpite right's anger has been stoked by the BLM/antifa riots of the summer, and they too were amplified by the Covid disaster in the first place, in so many ways.
Thirdly, the right has been electrified by its opposition to overweening lockdowns, maskers v antimaskers etc
All these Covid roads led down to Pennsylvania Avenue on Wednesday
So, yes, I am sure
Why do they think any old right wing fruitcakery is morally enhanced by having that before it ad nauseum?
https://lawandcrime.com/opinion/the-house-is-moving-quickly-towards-a-second-trump-impeachment-this-is-the-evidence-it-must-focus-on/?utm_source=mostpopular
It wouldn't be the long drawn out affair it was last time, if the numbers were there.
Is it like a Blue Peter appeal where they reach the official target in the first half an hour and then keep setting higher ones? Is there a bonus for 200, say?
(I have already subscribed, btw.)
https://twitter.com/CitizenWonk/status/1347611299585302528?s=20
Identity politics.
The cat was a little startled at the noise.