politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The worry for Nick Clegg is if moves like this in Nottingha
So far according to Lib Dem blogger, Stephen Tall, just five of the party’s branches have had formal meetings to discuss the leadership and only two, Nottingham and Ribble Valley, have voted in favour of a contest.
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OT Austria and Luxembourg plan to move a vote on Juncker at the summit on the 26th. Guess they're sick of having their Juncker stakes tied up with Shadsy?
http://www.spiegel.de/politik/ausland/eu-regierungschefs-fordern-rasche-abstimmung-ueber-juncker-a-975334.html0 -
Stephen Tall says “..I doubt there are even 75 local parties planning to hold a general meeting. And, based on the current split in results, it looks like around 150 would be having to plan to do so in order to get to the magic 75."
If the current 'success' rate is two out of five, wouldn't we need around 188 (75/0.4) local party general meetings to get to the "magic 75"?
OK, maybe I should go back to lurking...0 -
O/T
As regards Phil Neville's dubious commentary skills, it would seem that Jan Moir in today's Daily Mail agrees with my earlier comments:
"‘Yeah, he’s got to fire in them low crosses,’ he would say. Indeed, throughout his match commentary, Evil K-Neville would frequently use ‘them’ when he actually meant ‘those’ – a howling and irritating grammatical error.
At the very dawn of his career as a pundit, couldn’t a producer have had a quiet word in his ear and pointed out the mistake?
This has nothing to do with his regional accent, but everything to do with basic good grammar. It is pretty inexcusable.
After all, Neville is no longer a footballer. He is – for the moment at least – a highly paid voice for the national broadcaster, a man whose every word is being beamed to 15million bemused viewers back home."
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Eh? A PB gathering in Ilkley? What for? Why not in London, where normal people live?0
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Do you have your tin helmet at the ready JL?JohnLoony said:Eh? A PB gathering in Ilkley? What for? Why not in London, where normal people live?
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Based on my own bitter experience, I certainly wouldn't give up on the LibDems' share of the vote improving markedly prior to the next GE.
Well before the 2010 election when the Yellows were then averaging around 14% in the polls, I was foolish enough to have an even money bet with OGH that their UK level of support in the GE would not exceed 17%. Of course they were to exceed this figure by a handsome margin and I lost the bet. The only saving grace from my perspective was that recognising the way things were heading, I offered to close the bet at a discount ahead of the event and Mike was generous enough to accommodate me. As a result I was able to mitigate my losses.0 -
I think the dress code for Ilkley is "bar t'at", tinfoil or otherwise.peter_from_putney said:
Do you have your tin helmet at the ready JL?JohnLoony said:Eh? A PB gathering in Ilkley? What for? Why not in London, where normal people live?
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speaking of Ilkely, Tour de France is looking tasty, isn't it? Sky not looking so dominant , bert on the up..0
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Ilkley, I mean0
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Whatever the rights or wrongs of Clegg, deposing him now would be disastrous for the lib dems and cost them seats at the election. Their best bet is to point out that they have been a centrist moderating effect on the tories. A new left wing leader would lose those voters and leave "borrowed" voters from labour unimpressed. Tories are still reaping the effects of deposing Thatcher, an act which indirectly led to the setting up of UKIP.0
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Are there any borrowed voters from Labour left?Paul_Mid_Beds said:Whatever the rights or wrongs of Clegg, deposing him now would be disastrous for the lib dems and cost them seats at the election. Their best bet is to point out that they have been a centrist moderating effect on the tories. A new left wing leader would lose those voters and leave "borrowed" voters from labour unimpressed. Tories are still reaping the effects of deposing Thatcher, an act which indirectly led to the setting up of UKIP.
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It's not just polls though. Their local election results are 10+ points down on the 2005 parliament too.peter_from_putney said:Based on my own bitter experience, I certainly wouldn't give up on the LibDems' share of the vote improving markedly prior to the next GE.
Well before the 2010 election when the Yellows were then averaging around 14% in the polls, I was foolish enough to have an even money bet with OGH that their UK level of support in the GE would not exceed 17%. Of course they were to exceed this figure by a handsome margin and I lost the bet. The only saving grace from my perspective was that recognising the way things were heading, I offered to close the bet at a discount ahead of the event and Mike was generous enough to accommodate me. As a result I was able to mitigate my losses.0 -
But have they "been a centrist moderating effect on the Tories"? Can Paul point to even one post on this board where a Tory has moaned about what the Lib Dems have stopped them doing? When I asked some local Yellows what they'd achieved I was told it was "all taxation" (i.e. taxes are less regressive than they would have been under a Tory majority), and it was said in a gloomy "I wish you hadn't asked that but since I'm standing at this trestle handing out leaflets" tone of voice...Paul_Mid_Beds said:Whatever the rights or wrongs of Clegg, deposing him now would be disastrous for the lib dems and cost them seats at the election. Their best bet is to point out that they have been a centrist moderating effect on the tories. A new left wing leader would lose those voters and leave "borrowed" voters from labour unimpressed. Tories are still reaping the effects of deposing Thatcher, an act which indirectly led to the setting up of UKIP.
They had better get their story straight before next May because the campaign will home in on it for sure.
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Eh up .... Is thee PB function on Ilkley Moor bar ta't ?
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LDs went into coalition and increased the personal allowance. I think both are to their credit. I just don't see that being reflected in their GE vote share.0
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My understanding of Labour's policy (which may well be wrong of course) is that they propose to reverse that allowance increase with a hypothecation to the NHS. I look forward to the LD explanation that they oppose this:John_M said:LDs went into coalition and increased the personal allowance. I think both are to their credit. I just don't see that being reflected in their GE vote share.
(a) because it's wrong;
(b) because the NHS can manage on its present, Tory, level of funding;
(c) because the NHS is wrong;
(d) all of the above;
(e) none of the above.
I think we can be sure that both the Tories and the Labour Party will be gentle in their treatment of Clegg and chums. Or maybe not...0 -
@Innocent_Abroad
There might be some leeway on taxes for all parties if you can get past the lobbyists and media.
"British public wrongly believe rich face highest tax burden, new research shows"
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/16/british-public-wrong-rich-poor-tax-research0 -
A very poor piece of communication about this policy. It's not a tax cut for millionaires, it's a tax cut for middle class families and one that both Labour and the LD's objected to!
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/personalfinance/consumertips/tax/10900579/Middle-class-families-braced-for-inheritance-tax-time-bomb.html0 -
The ICM poll will be interesting. May's result was:
Con 33% (+1)
Labour 31% (-6)
LD 13% (+1)
UKIP 15% (+4)
Oth 9% (+1)
I wouldn't be surprised if Labour bounce back a lot, particularly if the Lib Dems dive, so we might be looking at a 4% or 5% lead.0 -
Morning all. The third part of my UKIP trilogy is up:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-latest-election-round-what-have-we_16.html0 -
Good morning, everyone.
The Lib Dems need to either axe Clegg or get behind him. This sort of thing just damages the party without getting rid of him.0 -
Based on income tax alone, the British public is right. It's easy to find data for direct taxation, but indirect tax data is much harder to find, and only anoraks are likely to bother.Smarmeron said:@Innocent_Abroad
There might be some leeway on taxes for all parties if you can get past the lobbyists and media.
"British public wrongly believe rich face highest tax burden, new research shows"
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/16/british-public-wrong-rich-poor-tax-research
I do agree that council tax is regressive. In Monmouthshire, the difference between band F and D is around forty quid a month (we're using 2005 house valuations. Band F properties are nominally worth the thick end of twice that of band D).
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The spiral of silence will keep Lib Dem over 12% at the very lowest.Millsy said:The ICM poll will be interesting. May's result was:
Con 33% (+1)
Labour 31% (-6)
LD 13% (+1)
UKIP 15% (+4)
Oth 9% (+1)
I wouldn't be surprised if Labour bounce back a lot, particularly if the Lib Dems dive, so we might be looking at a 4% or 5% lead.0 -
O/T
Did The Sun break the law?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/12/the-sun-world-cup-2014-_n_5488031.html0 -
Blue_rog said:
O/T
Did The Sun break the law?
http://www.huffingtonpost.co.uk/2014/06/12/the-sun-world-cup-2014-_n_5488031.html
I haven't received a copy yet - when are they coming ?
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Clegg was an E Mids MEP, so hass a certain loyalist vote round here, making the Nottingham outcome surprising. Anecdotal as always, but I find 2010 LibDem voters are split three ways: the loyalists (who will vote for them regardless of the leader or anything else), the progressives who aren't loyalists (who have all switched to Labour except a few to Greens) and the former protest voters (who are really scratching their heads). I think many of the third group will go UKIP or abstain, though Labour and Tories are getting some. It's not clear that a leadership change at this point would achieve anything, unless accompanied by a dramatic rejection of the coalition - group 1 doesn't need convincing, group 2 are ideologically-motivated, group 3 is amorphous.
With 10 and a bit months to go, Broxtowe LibDems (who predicted victory in 2010 and got 17% and lots of councillors) still haven't picked a candidate, though I think they will finally get round to it soon. Basically almost nobody wants to do it, as the immolation of the Broxtowe-based candidate in Newark (who lost 80% of his vote) suggests it won't be a fun experience.0 -
On topic - Clegg is safe, however these grumblings from within the LibDem camps are neither helpful or likely to encourage optimism - worst of both worlds imho.
Off topic.
I wonder if the present atrocities taking place in Iraq and the widespread coverage of Tony Blair’s ‘not my fault’ open letter will rekindle the animus, Labour voters had ‘come to terms’ since our withdrawal from the region?
BBC - Boris Johnson: Tony Blair's Iraq comments 'unhinged'
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27864603
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Congratulations & thanks for all your hard graft. Even if you don't really know more than the rest of us. I expect UKIP to be shouted down next year. They have no real friends in the media, and don't know how to fight a ground war.antifrank said:Morning all. The third part of my UKIP trilogy is up:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-latest-election-round-what-have-we_16.html
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Do MEP's get a loyalist vote? I would be surprised by that, with the possible exception of Dan Hannan and that would be more to do with a high media profile.NickPalmer said:Clegg was an E Mids MEP, so hass a certain loyalist vote round here, making the Nottingham outcome surprising. Anecdotal as always, but I find 2010 LibDem voters are split three ways: the loyalists (who will vote for them regardless of the leader or anything else), the progressives who aren't loyalists (who have all switched to Labour except a few to Greens) and the former protest voters (who are really scratching their heads). I think many of the third group will go UKIP or abstain, though Labour and Tories are getting some. It's not clear that a leadership change at this point would achieve anything, unless accompanied by a dramatic rejection of the coalition - group 1 doesn't need convincing, group 2 are ideologically-motivated, group 3 is amorphous.
With 10 and a bit months to go, Broxtowe LibDems (who predicted victory in 2010 and got 17% and lots of councillors) still haven't picked a candidate, though I think they will finally get round to it soon. Basically almost nobody wants to do it, as the immolation of the Broxtowe-based candidate in Newark (who lost 80% of his vote) suggests it won't be a fun experience.0 -
That's quite a tricky counter-factual. Suppose the Tories had had a majority of 10, so Cameron had to optimize for preserving the relationship with his right-wing fringe instead of Clegg. Would the UK still be in the EU? I think so, but I'm not sure...Innocent_Abroad said:
But have they "been a centrist moderating effect on the Tories"? Can Paul point to even one post on this board where a Tory has moaned about what the Lib Dems have stopped them doing? When I asked some local Yellows what they'd achieved I was told it was "all taxation" (i.e. taxes are less regressive than they would have been under a Tory majority), and it was said in a gloomy "I wish you hadn't asked that but since I'm standing at this trestle handing out leaflets" tone of voice...Paul_Mid_Beds said:Whatever the rights or wrongs of Clegg, deposing him now would be disastrous for the lib dems and cost them seats at the election. Their best bet is to point out that they have been a centrist moderating effect on the tories. A new left wing leader would lose those voters and leave "borrowed" voters from labour unimpressed. Tories are still reaping the effects of deposing Thatcher, an act which indirectly led to the setting up of UKIP.
They had better get their story straight before next May because the campaign will home in on it for sure.0 -
SNP tighten in North East Fife (LD Maj, Menzies Campbell = 9,048)
LD 1/3 (from 2/7)
SNP 9/2 (from 5/1)
Con 10/1 (from 16/1)
Lab 10/1 (n/c)
Note: Menzies Campbell MP is standing down at the next UK GE. The LD PPC is Cllr Tim Brett.0 -
@SimonStClare
The people who carved up the middle east and Africa, using a straight edge rather than local knowledge may have had something to do with it as well.
The legacy of the European dreams of empire.0 -
Well, we wouldn't have had the "five year rule" so I'm pretty sure we'd've had another election which would in part have been a proxy for a referendum on our EU membership so as counter-factuals go it's probably trickier than most...edmundintokyo said:
That's quite a tricky counter-factual. Suppose the Tories had had a majority of 10, so Cameron had to optimize for preserving the relationship with his right-wing fringe instead of Clegg. Would the UK still be in the EU? I think so, but I'm not sure...Innocent_Abroad said:
But have they "been a centrist moderating effect on the Tories"? Can Paul point to even one post on this board where a Tory has moaned about what the Lib Dems have stopped them doing? When I asked some local Yellows what they'd achieved I was told it was "all taxation" (i.e. taxes are less regressive than they would have been under a Tory majority), and it was said in a gloomy "I wish you hadn't asked that but since I'm standing at this trestle handing out leaflets" tone of voice...Paul_Mid_Beds said:Whatever the rights or wrongs of Clegg, deposing him now would be disastrous for the lib dems and cost them seats at the election. Their best bet is to point out that they have been a centrist moderating effect on the tories. A new left wing leader would lose those voters and leave "borrowed" voters from labour unimpressed. Tories are still reaping the effects of deposing Thatcher, an act which indirectly led to the setting up of UKIP.
They had better get their story straight before next May because the campaign will home in on it for sure.
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SNP tighten in Aberdeen South (Lab Maj over LD = 3,506)
Lab 1/16 (from 1/20)
SNP 12/1 (from 16/1)
Con 25/1 (n/c)
LD 33/1 (n/c)
100 bar
Note: the SNP came in 4th place in this seat in 2010, with less than 12% of the vote, but won in this area the following year with 42% of the vote:
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aberdeen_South_and_North_Kincardine_(Scottish_Parliament_constituency)0 -
I wonder if the Iraq disaster - and "Bomber" Blair popping back onto our TV screens - might just remind a number of 2010 LibDem voters why they didn't vote Labour? And why they would be idiots to do so in 2015....0
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This is a frustratingly inept piece of journalism which fails to address or explain any of the bases for the calculation. It is not even clear what taxes have been taken into account.Smarmeron said:@Innocent_Abroad
There might be some leeway on taxes for all parties if you can get past the lobbyists and media.
"British public wrongly believe rich face highest tax burden, new research shows"
http://www.theguardian.com/money/2014/jun/16/british-public-wrong-rich-poor-tax-research
Those earning less that £10K a year now pay no IT. They will pay some NI at lower levels than that. Poorer families also spend more of their income on food and rent. The proportion of their spend subject to VAT will be smaller than the better paid albeit it will be more significant to their circumstances. Council tax is extremely regressive but how many of the very poor actually pay it? If they are getting housing benefit or other assistance with their liability it is very artificial to take the gross cost into account.
The poor will probably spend a significantly greater share of their income on duty for cigarettes and alcohol. The duty on alcohol in particular is regressive as it forms a much smaller proportion of a £20 bottle than a £5 one.
I don't doubt that the exemptions given to the more affluent in ISAs, pensions and other allowances along with the more generous exemptions on capital gains etc mean that the rates actually paid by the better off are well below the headline levels. I also don't doubt that there are very regressive elements in our tax system we should look at. But I am afraid without a lot more information I would not trust these assessments at all.
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I think Nick's point is that he would expect a level of loyalty from LD activists in his former European constituency as they would probably know him.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Do MEP's get a loyalist vote? I would be surprised by that, with the possible exception of Dan Hannan and that would be more to do with a high media profile.NickPalmer said:Clegg was an E Mids MEP, so hass a certain loyalist vote round here, making the Nottingham outcome surprising. Anecdotal as always, but I find 2010 LibDem voters are split three ways: the loyalists (who will vote for them regardless of the leader or anything else), the progressives who aren't loyalists (who have all switched to Labour except a few to Greens) and the former protest voters (who are really scratching their heads). I think many of the third group will go UKIP or abstain, though Labour and Tories are getting some. It's not clear that a leadership change at this point would achieve anything, unless accompanied by a dramatic rejection of the coalition - group 1 doesn't need convincing, group 2 are ideologically-motivated, group 3 is amorphous.
With 10 and a bit months to go, Broxtowe LibDems (who predicted victory in 2010 and got 17% and lots of councillors) still haven't picked a candidate, though I think they will finally get round to it soon. Basically almost nobody wants to do it, as the immolation of the Broxtowe-based candidate in Newark (who lost 80% of his vote) suggests it won't be a fun experience.
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Thanks for the 'potted' history lesson - there are however, more recent events taking place in the world that directly effect politics and the UK other than those long since dead and not standing for office. ; )Smarmeron said:@SimonStClare
The people who carved up the middle east and Africa, using a straight edge rather than local knowledge may have had something to do with it as well.
The legacy of the European dreams of empire.0 -
LD activists? What sort of number would you put on that?SouthamObserver said:
I think Nick's point is that he would expect a level of loyalty from LD activists in his former European constituency as they would probably know him.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Do MEP's get a loyalist vote? I would be surprised by that, with the possible exception of Dan Hannan and that would be more to do with a high media profile.NickPalmer said:Clegg was an E Mids MEP, so hass a certain loyalist vote round here, making the Nottingham outcome surprising. Anecdotal as always, but I find 2010 LibDem voters are split three ways: the loyalists (who will vote for them regardless of the leader or anything else), the progressives who aren't loyalists (who have all switched to Labour except a few to Greens) and the former protest voters (who are really scratching their heads). I think many of the third group will go UKIP or abstain, though Labour and Tories are getting some. It's not clear that a leadership change at this point would achieve anything, unless accompanied by a dramatic rejection of the coalition - group 1 doesn't need convincing, group 2 are ideologically-motivated, group 3 is amorphous.
With 10 and a bit months to go, Broxtowe LibDems (who predicted victory in 2010 and got 17% and lots of councillors) still haven't picked a candidate, though I think they will finally get round to it soon. Basically almost nobody wants to do it, as the immolation of the Broxtowe-based candidate in Newark (who lost 80% of his vote) suggests it won't be a fun experience.
My wild guess would be a couple of hundred.
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Since when did wealth distribution become a matter for local government?John_M said:
I do agree that council tax is regressive. In Monmouthshire, the difference between band F and D is around forty quid a month (we're using 2005 house valuations. Band F properties are nominally worth the thick end of twice that of band D).
Local government should be about provision of and payment for services. While it is right that the tax system as a whole is progressive, this is a matter for national government, not councillors.0 -
Smarmeron,
By "benefit fraud", I suspect you mean "known benefit fraud" as calculated by prosecution. That will be tiny.
In the real world, I know of quite a few minor cases going on. Not important in the grand scheme of things and at no great cost individually. But many people are aware of it.
Thus the insistence by the left, that these people are stupid because they don't believe the "official" figures is just self-defeating.0 -
Among members, yes (which is what the LibDem Nottingham vote was) - they vote to select the MEP candidates. I know several LibDems who are outspokenly pro-Clegg because they remember voting to choose him and felt he did a good job as their MEP. Similarly, Glenis Wilmott has a sky-high reputation among E Mids Labour people, and i expect Roger Helmer is well-rated by Kippers even after missing out in Newark.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Do MEP's get a loyalist vote? I would be surprised by that, with the possible exception of Dan Hannan and that would be more to do with a high media profile.
I think a dislike of the whole EU thing makes some on the right underestimate how interested and involved many Lab/Lib activists feel in it and its various features like the MEPs. Many Tories think it's complicated, obscure and not worth bothering with; many leftish activists find it pretty clear and generally positive, though in need of improvement. It's like football - people who are into it have strong views on particular keepers and strikers, whereas the uninvolved have never heard of any of them.0 -
@SimonStClare
I pointed that out last night. Hindsight is terrific, the problem is where do we go from here?
You will struggle to find consensus even among those of your own political persuasion.
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Nah. It'll just remind them that Blair is Blair, and no longer involved in Labour.MarqueeMark said:I wonder if the Iraq disaster - and "Bomber" Blair popping back onto our TV screens - might just remind a number of 2010 LibDem voters why they didn't vote Labour? And why they would be idiots to do so in 2015....
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Thanks Nick, I take your pointNickPalmer said:
Among members, yes (which is what the LibDem Nottingham vote was) - they vote to select the MEP candidates. I know several LibDems who are outspokenly pro-Clegg because they remember voting to choose him and felt he did a good job as their MEP. Similarly, Glenis Wilmott has a sky-high reputation among E Mids Labour people, and i expect Roger Helmer is well-rated by Kippers even after missing out in Newark.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Do MEP's get a loyalist vote? I would be surprised by that, with the possible exception of Dan Hannan and that would be more to do with a high media profile.
I think a dislike of the whole EU thing makes some on the right underestimate how interested and involved many Lab/Lib activists feel in it and its various features like the MEPs. Many Tories think it's complicated, obscure and not worth bothering with; many leftish activists find it pretty clear and generally positive, though in need of improvement. It's like football - people who are into it have strong views on particular keepers and strikers, whereas the uninvolved have never heard of any of them.0 -
I believe the official figure is under 1% although 1% of our benefits budget is a serious sum of money. A lot depends on who you blame for the chaos relating to Working tax credits for those of variable income. The sums overpaid there are significant but that is not necessarily the recipient's fault. It is just a duff system unless your circumstances are completely predictable.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
I suppose it comes down to which think tank or lobby group you trust?
It is the same with "benefit fraud", most people think it is circa 35%.
What do you think the actual figure is?
A link to the article or research on which the Guardian article is a probably inaccurate and superficial summary would have been helpful.
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But that is what this thread is about: the Nottingham and Ribble Valley LD branches voting in favour of a leadership contest.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
LD activists? What sort of number would you put on that?SouthamObserver said:
I think Nick's point is that he would expect a level of loyalty from LD activists in his former European constituency as they would probably know him.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:
Do MEP's get a loyalist vote? I would be surprised by that, with the possible exception of Dan Hannan and that would be more to do with a high media profile.NickPalmer said:Clegg was an E Mids MEP, so hass a certain loyalist vote round here, making the Nottingham outcome surprising. Anecdotal as always, but I find 2010 LibDem voters are split three ways: the loyalists (who will vote for them regardless of the leader or anything else), the progressives who aren't loyalists (who have all switched to Labour except a few to Greens) and the former protest voters (who are really scratching their heads). I think many of the third group will go UKIP or abstain, though Labour and Tories are getting some. It's not clear that a leadership change at this point would achieve anything, unless accompanied by a dramatic rejection of the coalition - group 1 doesn't need convincing, group 2 are ideologically-motivated, group 3 is amorphous.
With 10 and a bit months to go, Broxtowe LibDems (who predicted victory in 2010 and got 17% and lots of councillors) still haven't picked a candidate, though I think they will finally get round to it soon. Basically almost nobody wants to do it, as the immolation of the Broxtowe-based candidate in Newark (who lost 80% of his vote) suggests it won't be a fun experience.
My wild guess would be a couple of hundred.
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It is what it is. You can make the argument that some people are asset rich and income poor (I'd currently fall into that category), and therefore property values don't correlate perfectly with income, that's fine.Charles said:
Since when did wealth distribution become a matter for local government?John_M said:
I do agree that council tax is regressive. In Monmouthshire, the difference between band F and D is around forty quid a month (we're using 2005 house valuations. Band F properties are nominally worth the thick end of twice that of band D).
Local government should be about provision of and payment for services. While it is right that the tax system as a whole is progressive, this is a matter for national government, not councillors.
In terms of wealth distribution being a matter for local government, I don't see that your comment is germane; I simply offered a practical example in response to Smarmeron's post.
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Untrue. Blair is psychotic but he's a rich psychotic.Charles said:
Nah. It'll just remind them that Blair is Blair, and no longer involved in Labour.MarqueeMark said:I wonder if the Iraq disaster - and "Bomber" Blair popping back onto our TV screens - might just remind a number of 2010 LibDem voters why they didn't vote Labour? And why they would be idiots to do so in 2015....
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/mar/05/tony-blair-labour-party-donation
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Smarmeron,
I feel a Rumsfield moment coming on. Estimates are based on what is told to them, and the cases I know of would not be known. So the "official" figure may well be 0.01% and meaningless.
Based on my own experience, I know say about 100 people well enough to estimate, and four of these indulge in minor benefits fraud. Those four would never admit that to anyone official, so I draw my own conclusions.
How about your mates?0 -
DavidL said:
I believe the official figure is under 1% although 1% of our benefits budget is a serious sum of money. A lot depends on who you blame for the chaos relating to Working tax credits for those of variable income. The sums overpaid there are significant but that is not necessarily the recipient's fault. It is just a duff system unless your circumstances are completely predictable.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
I suppose it comes down to which think tank or lobby group you trust?
It is the same with "benefit fraud", most people think it is circa 35%.
What do you think the actual figure is?
A link to the article or research on which the Guardian article is a probably inaccurate and superficial summary would have been helpful.
DavidL, the report is here
http://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/sites/default/files/attachments/resources/Unfair and Unclear.pdf
And it is based on the tax take from 2011 so excludes most of the increase in PA. It also only covers tax on income rather than tax on capital, which I imagine would tend to underestimate the tax paid by the richest.
The full list of taxes they cover is
Income tax
• Tax on interest earned by savings/rental income/other income
• Capital gains tax
• Council tax
• Car/vehicle/road tax
• Inheritance tax
• Stamp duty
• Tax added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions (i.e. VAT):
• National insurance
• Tax duty on fuel, beer, cider, wine, spirits, tobacco
• Betting & Gaming Duties
• Air Passenger Duty
• Insurance Premium Tax
• Landfill Tax
• Climate Change Levy
• Aggregates tax
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It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
0 -
CD13
My experience correlates with the government estimate, but I don't usually ask my friends about their finances, so who knows?0 -
The self-employed are apparently also moving Con>UKIP.antifrank said:Morning all. The third part of my UKIP trilogy is up:
http://newstonoone.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/the-latest-election-round-what-have-we_16.html
http://election-data.blogspot.co.uk/2014/06/self-employment-and-flight-to-ukip.html
0 -
When the public are asked about levels of benefit fraud, they are often not thinking about a strict legal definition. What they often mean when answering the question is "people who are getting benefits who shouldn't get benefits".0
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Many thanks. I will have a read later. It only seems to be looking at one side of the balance sheet but that does not mean it is not a worthwhile exercise in itself. My guess is that if capital gains are treated as income then the comparatively low rates of tax on these will reduce the percentage of tax paid by the rich.JonathanD said:DavidL said:
I believe the official figure is under 1% although 1% of our benefits budget is a serious sum of money. A lot depends on who you blame for the chaos relating to Working tax credits for those of variable income. The sums overpaid there are significant but that is not necessarily the recipient's fault. It is just a duff system unless your circumstances are completely predictable.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
I suppose it comes down to which think tank or lobby group you trust?
It is the same with "benefit fraud", most people think it is circa 35%.
What do you think the actual figure is?
A link to the article or research on which the Guardian article is a probably inaccurate and superficial summary would have been helpful.
DavidL, the report is here
http://www.equalitytrust.org.uk/sites/default/files/attachments/resources/Unfair and Unclear.pdf
And it is based on the tax take from 2011 so excludes most of the increase in PA. It also only covers tax on income rather than tax on capital, which I imagine would tend to underestimate the tax paid by the richest.
The full list of taxes they cover is
Income tax
• Tax on interest earned by savings/rental income/other income
• Capital gains tax
• Council tax
• Car/vehicle/road tax
• Inheritance tax
• Stamp duty
• Tax added to the cost of some goods, services, and transactions (i.e. VAT):
• National insurance
• Tax duty on fuel, beer, cider, wine, spirits, tobacco
• Betting & Gaming Duties
• Air Passenger Duty
• Insurance Premium Tax
• Landfill Tax
• Climate Change Levy
• Aggregates tax
I always told my tax partner when I was a solicitor that one of my aims in life was to pay CGT. I haven't managed it yet.
0 -
Antifrank,
On that basis, I'd say 5%, but I have a relatively law-abiding group of friends and I suspect I don't know all their financial secrets.0 -
@antifrank
Yes, they have a special test for that, worded in such a way that you stand a better chance of being found unfit for work if you are "at it" than you do if you are genuinely ill.
Ask the company who has baled out of the contract (or been removed if you prefer the departments version).0 -
To give an unpartisan view, Graham Allen MP (Lab, Nottingham north - the poorest constituency in Britain by some measures) gives IDS full credit for good intentions and speaks highly of his willingness to cooperate in getting it right. I'd expect IDS to put country before party interests in making policy, not something I'd say about all front-benchers.DavidL said:
It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
That said, I agree with your diagnosis, and IDS is perhaps more of a thinker than a manager (my view, not Graham's) - perhaps would be ideal as head of a right of centre think-tank.
0 -
Morning all
It's an interesting argument to ask where we would be now IF the Conservatives had achieved an overall majority in 2010. I remember OGH suggesting the best result for the LDs would be a Conservative Government with a majority of less than 10.
One thing is for certain - the LDs would be polling much higher than now and the Conservatives and UKIP much lower. Indeed, there would have been polls with the Conservatives third as there were in the mid-80s.
As to what the LDs have achieved in Government - there's little doubt Osborne would have slashed the higher rate of tax to 40p in 2012 if he could and I also suspect basic rate tax might have been cut along with Corporation Tax. To balance this, I suspect public spending would have been cut deeper and faster after 2012.
Would there have been a referendum on EU membership ? I doubt it - there wouldn't be a strong UKIP to provide political pressure and in any case getting a majority for a referendum would be difficult in the Commons. We'd probably be where we are now.0 -
@NickPalmer
You do of course know that UC does not have a "traffic light" rating these days?
It was such a mess that with the changes needed, they had to invent a new category, "reset"0 -
If you only read PB you'd think UKIP were on the wane but the membership keeps on rising
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 3m
#UKIP Membership:
2002 9,000
2008 14,600
2010 15,500
2012 19,500
2013 32,500
2014 39,143 as of now, and rising.0 -
Interesting last point. IMO (and I have never met or "done business" with him), IDS seems more of a big picture thinker than thinker. I have no doubt he is a good manager but, and perhaps this stems from his time in 1SG where he could have the idea, then delegate to a capable team for implementation, my guess is that the implementation resources available to him for such a big idea have been insufficient.NickPalmer said:
To give an unpartisan view, Graham Allen MP (Lab, Nottingham north - the poorest constituency in Britain by some measures) gives IDS full credit for good intentions and speaks highly of his willingness to cooperate in getting it right. I'd expect IDS to put country before party interests in making policy, not something I'd say about all front-benchers.DavidL said:
It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
That said, I agree with your diagnosis, and IDS is perhaps more of a thinker than a manager (my view, not Graham's) - perhaps would be ideal as head of a right of centre think-tank.
Not to say that he doesn't have a capable team now but surely the task is enormous and unprecedented.0 -
Good news for UKIP - though still behind the Lib Dems - Labour seem to have the most members however like the Conservatives the numbers have plummeted from their joint peaks of 400kisam said:If you only read PB you'd think UKIP were on the wane but the membership keeps on rising
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 3m
#UKIP Membership:
2002 9,000
2008 14,600
2010 15,500
2012 19,500
2013 32,500
2014 39,143 as of now, and rising.
Source:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dem_membership_surge_continues
Will UKIP have more members than the Lib Dems when the GE comes ?0 -
So it's polltastic day with Populus (soon), Lord A's, ICM and YouGov. Much more exciting than those boys in Brazil....0
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There is a general recognition that he means well but on a "charity" basis I have been involved in the odd Social Security Appeal Tribunal case and I have to say it is the most complicated and arcane area of law I have ever come across.NickPalmer said:
To give an unpartisan view, Graham Allen MP (Lab, Nottingham north - the poorest constituency in Britain by some measures) gives IDS full credit for good intentions and speaks highly of his willingness to cooperate in getting it right. I'd expect IDS to put country before party interests in making policy, not something I'd say about all front-benchers.DavidL said:
It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
That said, I agree with your diagnosis, and IDS is perhaps more of a thinker than a manager (my view, not Graham's) - perhaps would be ideal as head of a right of centre think-tank.
I also fear that the DWP has not been the first choice for the ambitious and able in our Civil Service over a very long period. The level of administrative skills seems quite modest.0 -
In software development, there's a well-known phenomenon called the second-system effect, which is a project designed to write an old piece of software with new code written from scratch. These generally don't work out, as you throw away a bunch of old mostly working code and end up creating a bloated, over-designed, over-engineered mess, plus it takes forever to recreate all the functionality from scratch.DavidL said:
It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
Universal credit feels like a classic second-system effect situation.0 -
Yes, this ICM adjustment is propping up LD poll ratings.Pulpstar said:
The spiral of silence will keep Lib Dem over 12% at the very lowest.Millsy said:The ICM poll will be interesting. May's result was:
Con 33% (+1)
Labour 31% (-6)
LD 13% (+1)
UKIP 15% (+4)
Oth 9% (+1)
I wouldn't be surprised if Labour bounce back a lot, particularly if the Lib Dems dive, so we might be looking at a 4% or 5% lead.
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Interesting. Does this explain why every time a website I use in relation to my work is upgraded its functionality and utility decreases?Oliver_PB said:
In software development, there's a well-known phenomenon called the second-system effect, which is a project designed to replace an old piece of software with new code written from scratch. These generally don't work out, as you throw away a bunch of old mostly working code and end up creating a bloated, over-designed mess and it takes forever to recreate all the functionality from scratch.DavidL said:
It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
Universal credit seems like a classic second-system effect situation.
0 -
In my experience, that sort of thing is generally down to clueless "user experience designers" ruining everything they touch.DavidL said:
Interesting. Does this explain why every time a website I use in relation to my work is upgraded its functionality and utility decreases?Oliver_PB said:
In software development, there's a well-known phenomenon called the second-system effect, which is a project designed to replace an old piece of software with new code written from scratch. These generally don't work out, as you throw away a bunch of old mostly working code and end up creating a bloated, over-designed mess and it takes forever to recreate all the functionality from scratch.DavidL said:
It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
Universal credit seems like a classic second-system effect situation.0 -
Sounds like the basis one of Mike's threadsPulpstar said:
Good news for UKIP - though still behind the Lib Dems - Labour seem to have the most members however like the Conservatives the numbers have plummeted from their joint peaks of 400kisam said:If you only read PB you'd think UKIP were on the wane but the membership keeps on rising
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 3m
#UKIP Membership:
2002 9,000
2008 14,600
2010 15,500
2012 19,500
2013 32,500
2014 39,143 as of now, and rising.
Source:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dem_membership_surge_continues
Will UKIP have more members than the Lib Dems when the GE comes ?
"For all UKIPs claims of an "earthquake" they remain the party with the least members... "
0 -
Fewest members.isam said:
Sounds like the basis one of Mike's threadsPulpstar said:
Good news for UKIP - though still behind the Lib Dems - Labour seem to have the most members however like the Conservatives the numbers have plummeted from their joint peaks of 400kisam said:If you only read PB you'd think UKIP were on the wane but the membership keeps on rising
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 3m
#UKIP Membership:
2002 9,000
2008 14,600
2010 15,500
2012 19,500
2013 32,500
2014 39,143 as of now, and rising.
Source:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dem_membership_surge_continues
Will UKIP have more members than the Lib Dems when the GE comes ?
"For all UKIPs claims of an "earthquake" they remain the party with the least members... "
0 -
I find this LD attitude toward Clegg rather baffling, unless it is not simply a form of collective immaturity.
He has got the LDs into government for the first time in 100-odd years. The alternative in 2010 to a coalition with the Tories was to shore up Labour, who had caused social mayhem and economic disaster.
If there are LDs out there who seriously think coalition to keep that sordid regime in power would have been a/ what the country needed and b/ better for the LDs today, I'd like to hear why.
If they are simply so left wing that they are fundamentally viscerally opposed to coalition with the Tories on principle, then they should drop the pretence of being anything other than ersatz Labour, standing under a flag of convenience in seats where Labour could never win.0 -
Agree 100% with your post and as to the above, well they weren't at least not at the conference which overwhelmingly agreed to go into coalition.Bond_James_Bond said:
If they are simply so left wing that they are fundamentally viscerally opposed to coalition with the Tories on principle, then they should drop the pretence of being anything other than ersatz Labour, standing under a flag of convenience in seats where Labour could never win.
Collective selective memory, collective denial. I'm beginning to go off them.0 -
The tragedy of this is that other parts of the government did actually seem to have worked out how to do software development in small, less monolithic pieces with more real-world feed-back. What I've heard about Government Digital Services seems pretty positive. But then IDS took the same, failed approach for the benefits system that his colleagues had been criticizing, and it died on its arse in exactly the same way the various New Labour systems had done.Oliver_PB said:
In software development, there's a well-known phenomenon called the second-system effect, which is a project designed to write an old piece of software with new code written from scratch. These generally don't work out, as you throw away a bunch of old mostly working code and end up creating a bloated, over-designed, over-engineered mess, plus it takes forever to recreate all the functionality from scratch.DavidL said:
It looks a total shambles to me from the outside.Smarmeron said:@DavidL
" It is just a duff system unless your cirucmstances are completely predictable. "
Yes, IDS has found that is a problem with any system. How is the Universal Credit roll out coming along?
I can understand the desire to have root and branch reform of the thickets of legislation, special circumstances and often unfair bureaucracy that has grown up as the welfare state spread its vines (getting a little carried away with this metaphor now) through society but it was and is frighteningly ambitious and brave in a Yes Minister way.
I would have thought that preliminary steps of clearing the undergrowth and simplification might have been a safer approach but we shall see. Having IDS in charge of it does not seem to be helping. He means well but has about the same level of credibility as a New Labour treasury minister in the last government in that he seems to say whatever might be thought to be helpful at the time.
Universal credit feels like a classic second-system effect situation.0 -
On topic, it'll be a momentum thing if he does go?
Say 5 to 10 branches vote for a leadership election in a short space of time, then it has a feeling of inevitability about it.0 -
Yup, it must be getting the first few branches that's the hardest part.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it'll be a momentum thing if he does go?
Say 5 to 10 branches vote for a leadership election in a short space of time, then it has a feeling of inevitability about it.0 -
Dominic Cummings might be advised to stop dropping into Gove's office for "tea and a cosy chat", at least for a while?
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-278639180 -
It takes a number of weeks to set these things up, so there maybe a lull. But if the Lord A marginal polls threaten half the LD MPs that plan to remain, they may pull the trigger.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it'll be a momentum thing if he does go?
Say 5 to 10 branches vote for a leadership election in a short space of time, then it has a feeling of inevitability about it.
0 -
I've gone balls deep on Portugal beating Germany this afternoon. You can get 16/5 on them0
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If it provides you with any solace, Green Party membership is ~17,000.isam said:
Sounds like the basis one of Mike's threadsPulpstar said:
Good news for UKIP - though still behind the Lib Dems - Labour seem to have the most members however like the Conservatives the numbers have plummeted from their joint peaks of 400kisam said:If you only read PB you'd think UKIP were on the wane but the membership keeps on rising
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 3m
#UKIP Membership:
2002 9,000
2008 14,600
2010 15,500
2012 19,500
2013 32,500
2014 39,143 as of now, and rising.
Source:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dem_membership_surge_continues
Will UKIP have more members than the Lib Dems when the GE comes ?
"For all UKIPs claims of an "earthquake" they remain the party with the least members... "
To put the membership figures into context, the average number of members per mainland British constituency [ie assuming no NI members] are:
Labour < 316
Conservative ~ 206
Lib Dem = 69
UKIP = 62
Green [E&W] ~ 30
Left Unity > 30 -
Also, has anyone noticed the "New State Pension" has sneaked under the radar?
One of my friends who is 61, worked as an IT contractor for many years, and planned to retire at 65. He has now discovered that he hasn't got enough National Insurance credits to qualify for the basic state pension when he hits 65 (he had private pensions but they were split in a messy divorce). This means he will never be able to retire.
I think it will go down like a lead balloon once people discover the change and the government of the day will have to sort it out.0 -
Germany are my favourites for the winners of the whole thing. But with Ronaldo you never know.TheScreamingEagles said:I've gone balls deep on Portugal beating Germany this afternoon. You can get 16/5 on them
0 -
One of Ed Miliband's underrated successes is that he's successfully de-war-criminal-ified Labour. The Syria vote also helped, even though he seems to have sort-of stumbled into it. So I don't think Blair can do much more to damage the brand at this point, although I don't think any reasonable person would be opposed to the Shadow Cabinet taking him to an undisclosed location and conducting a live show-trial on YouTube just to be on the safe side.MarqueeMark said:I wonder if the Iraq disaster - and "Bomber" Blair popping back onto our TV screens - might just remind a number of 2010 LibDem voters why they didn't vote Labour? And why they would be idiots to do so in 2015....
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Apeing the poor grammar of the thread headers....TheScreamingEagles said:
Fewest members.isam said:
Sounds like the basis one of Mike's threadsPulpstar said:
Good news for UKIP - though still behind the Lib Dems - Labour seem to have the most members however like the Conservatives the numbers have plummeted from their joint peaks of 400kisam said:If you only read PB you'd think UKIP were on the wane but the membership keeps on rising
Robert Kimbell @RedHotSquirrel 3m
#UKIP Membership:
2002 9,000
2008 14,600
2010 15,500
2012 19,500
2013 32,500
2014 39,143 as of now, and rising.
Source:
http://www.libdems.org.uk/lib_dem_membership_surge_continues
Will UKIP have more members than the Lib Dems when the GE comes ?
"For all UKIPs claims of an "earthquake" they remain the party with the least members... "
Kidding! My mistake, my bad grammar!!
0 -
I thought the first rule of world cups is 'Never bet against the Germans'.TheScreamingEagles said:I've gone balls deep on Portugal beating Germany this afternoon. You can get 16/5 on them
0 -
@Oliver_PB
Did he not pay NI when he was working? and claim it when unemployed?0 -
Can you not buy additional years of credits? You certainly used to be able to do so although I am less clear if there is any point under the new system.Oliver_PB said:Also, has anyone noticed the "New State Pension" has sneaked under the radar?
One of my friends who is 61, worked as an IT contractor for many years, and planned to retire at 65. He has now discovered that he hasn't got enough National Insurance credits to qualify for the basic state pension when he hits 65 (he had private pensions but they were split in a messy divorce). This means he will never be able to retire.
I think it will go down like a lead balloon once people discover the change and the government of the day will have to sort it out.
0 -
I'm on for a tenner with Portugal.TheScreamingEagles said:I've gone balls deep on Portugal beating Germany this afternoon. You can get 16/5 on them
Which means in betting terms Germany will now win.0 -
Mr. Eagles, that'd probably need some co-ordination. Labour would be unable to do it, the Conservatives unable to stop themselves. I wonder what the yellows will do.
Btw, didn't you tip Costa Rica at 14/1? Excellent tip, if so. I wish I'd backed it.
Ladbrokes have most of the F1 markets up, including one I wanted to see. Can't decide if I believe it's value or not. I shall ponder it.0 -
Dominic Cummings despises all politicians; they are simply not clever enough to be in the same room as him. I'd be interested to hear his real views about Michael Gove.0
-
If Lord Oakeshott's polls didn't focus minds, then if Lord Ashcroft's poll are pretty gruesome for the Yellow Peril, then maybe it will make easier.edmundintokyo said:
Yup, it must be getting the first few branches that's the hardest part.TheScreamingEagles said:On topic, it'll be a momentum thing if he does go?
Say 5 to 10 branches vote for a leadership election in a short space of time, then it has a feeling of inevitability about it.0 -
Nick Sutton @suttonnick 19s
Michael Schumacher management: Michael has left the CHU Grenoble to continue his long phase of rehabilitation. He is not in a coma anymore.0 -
I don't know the exact details, I'm afraid. I just know he found out about via an article on the Daily Mail website and wasn't best happy about it!
He's been semi-retired for a few years because IT work isn't exactly the most friendly field for older folks.0 -
I backed Costa Rica at 10/1, they moved out as high as 16/1 during the match, when they went behind.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, that'd probably need some co-ordination. Labour would be unable to do it, the Conservatives unable to stop themselves. I wonder what the yellows will do.
Btw, didn't you tip Costa Rica at 14/1? Excellent tip, if so. I wish I'd backed it.
Ladbrokes have most of the F1 markets up, including one I wanted to see. Can't decide if I believe it's value or not. I shall ponder it.0 -
TSE,
The Dutch have a rather interesting football prog.
It's called WK in Lingerie and you can find it on YouTube.0 -
Sounds like my friend Osama, who is known as Ossie since circa 2001
Jay Abdo, Syrian actor: how I changed my name from Jihad to Jay and (eventually) conquered Hollywood
The reluctant refugee talks about his journey from Syrian superstar to Los Angeles pizza delivery-man and now a new lease of life as co-star to Nicole Kidman and Tom Hanks
http://www.theguardian.com/film/2014/jun/15/jay-abdo-syria-film-refugee-actor?CMP=twt_gu0
