Trump preparing for GOP losses in the Georgia runoffs? He Tweets that the races are “illegal and inv
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Nothing - other than a bunch of smart fuckers who have largely treated this Bastard Bug with very great respect from the off....kle4 said:
I think there is clearly a pool of voters who have been moving away from Labour for a long time, or who feel Labour has been moving away from them for a long time, and who are much more likely to stick with the Tories from now on. Having made the mental jump, they will continue to feel that it makes sense.Stark_Dawning said:
I think the 'Red Wall Tories' are, by their very nature, rather cantankerous types, so were never likely to bestow much gratitude upon Boris for all he has given them. 'Voted Tory once but nivver again', will be the prevailing refrain.TheScreamingEagles said:
However, the ones who really felt pushed to vote Tory this time, who still feel that they are Labour, and who are inevitably disappointed by events, also form part of that Red Wall block. I would not be surprised if substantial numbers of seats return to Labour on that basis.
It's the benefit of there being nothing here.HYUFD said:
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figuresTheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/13454598963350855721 -
I'd like to think we are smarter than any other region, but I'm too 'umble for that.MarqueeMark said:
Nothing - other than a bunch of smart fuckers who have largely treated this Bastard Bug with very great respect from the off....kle4 said:
I think there is clearly a pool of voters who have been moving away from Labour for a long time, or who feel Labour has been moving away from them for a long time, and who are much more likely to stick with the Tories from now on. Having made the mental jump, they will continue to feel that it makes sense.Stark_Dawning said:
I think the 'Red Wall Tories' are, by their very nature, rather cantankerous types, so were never likely to bestow much gratitude upon Boris for all he has given them. 'Voted Tory once but nivver again', will be the prevailing refrain.TheScreamingEagles said:
However, the ones who really felt pushed to vote Tory this time, who still feel that they are Labour, and who are inevitably disappointed by events, also form part of that Red Wall block. I would not be surprised if substantial numbers of seats return to Labour on that basis.
It's the benefit of there being nothing here.HYUFD said:
The South West actually has the lowest case rate in England on those figuresTheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/13454598963350855720 -
Isn't that "The Norway Model"?FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).0 -
What the fuck is a "viable end state"? History is endless. That's the point. Everything changes, all the time. There are no end states where everything is set in stone forever, not even ancient Egypt (which lasted 3000 years). What a fatuous, imbecile comment.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).1 -
Mondale only won one State. If precedent counts for anything Pence will be buried.HYUFD said:
Last time a sitting VP was defeated for re-election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Walter Mondale in 1980, he ended up being his party's nominee for the next presidential election in 1984SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
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VPs or ex VPs who run normally win the nomination, Nixon, Humphrey, Mondale, Bush 41, Gore, Biden etc.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
And winning one state, his own Minnesota, plus DC.HYUFD said:
Last time a sitting VP was defeated for re-election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Walter Mondale in 1980, he ended up being his party's nominee for the next presidential election in 1984SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Just pointing out that shekels gambled on Pence may be less than a wise investment. Especially when IIRC Fritz Mondale did NOT have fanatical Jimmy Carter-ites chewing on his tender hindquarters.
Even IF the next four years do NOT turn out to be Morning in America Redux think that Pence's ties to The Donald will be more of an impediment than an asset.
Because for pro-Trumpskyites they will be too little, and for anti-Trumpers too much.
Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring!
If Trump did not run again in 2024, in which case he would be favourite, then Pence would take his place as favourite to be nominee, the Trump base would be behind him as the closest thing to their hero and unless Biden or Harris were polling very badly few other establishment Republicans would bother to challenge him, much as Mondale did not face a vast range of challengers in 1984 for the Democratic nod with Reagan well ahead in the polls.0 -
Of course, you are utterly screwed in your assessment if the UK just decides to work with the EU on a pratical day-to-day basis, whilst building an ever greater proportion of its trade and wealth with countries outside the EU.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Which, from where I am stood, looks to be exactly the plan.0 -
Without Scotland Cameron and May would have won relatively comfortable overall majorities in 2010 and 2017 without even needing to win a single Red Wall seat that Boris won in 2019, that is how significant it would beGallowgate said:
Yes. @HYUFD seems to be unable to think outside the parameters of "now". Sure the loss of Scotland would pull rUK's politics further to the "right", but of course the new Tory coalition is much more left-wing economically than it has been for a long time anyway. And we have no idea what will happen in the future and its effect on the politics of rUK.IanB2 said:
Not necessarily. The break up of our country would shift our politics in ways it is currently hard to discern. Especially if Tory idiocy and obsession with Europe is seen to be the cause.HYUFD said:
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.IanB2 said:
Politics is rather more than simple maths.HYUFD said:
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.IanB2 said:
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...HYUFD said:
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.IanB2 said:
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
There's no guarantee of anything.-1 -
Everyone already knows that and it doesn't refute anything I said. You're stuck in the past and unable to conceive the future outside the parameters of "now".HYUFD said:
Without Scotland Cameron and May would have won majorities in 2010 and 2017 without even needing to win a single Red Wall seat that Boris won in 2019, that is how significant it would beGallowgate said:
Yes. @HYUFD seems to be unable to think outside the parameters of "now". Sure the loss of Scotland would pull rUK's politics further to the "right", but of course the new Tory coalition is much more left-wing economically than it has been for a long time anyway. And we have no idea what will happen in the future and its effect on the politics of rUK.IanB2 said:
Not necessarily. The break up of our country would shift our politics in ways it is currently hard to discern. Especially if Tory idiocy and obsession with Europe is seen to be the cause.HYUFD said:
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.IanB2 said:
Politics is rather more than simple maths.HYUFD said:
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.IanB2 said:
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...HYUFD said:
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.IanB2 said:
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
There's no guarantee of anything.1 -
I think we already have...FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
0 -
Yeah, but what has he done for them lately?HYUFD said:
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to BorisIanB2 said:
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.MaxPB said:
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.Barnesian said:
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.Foxy said:
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
I genuinely think they are done.tlg86 said:
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.TheScreamingEagles said:According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
Loyalty will be there for some time, but in time they'll come to believe they won their seats because they are so good, not thanks to Boris.0 -
Absolutely nothing is quite as laughable as "Anglosphere". At least the EU is a political, economic and diplomatic construct, which happens to contain most of the UK's peers, with whom a deal is genuinely possible.Leon said:
This is to presume the EU is as mighty, confident, powerful and immovable as imperial Rome or China. Which is, frankly, laughable.FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
It may have escaped your attention that the EU has just lost its 2nd or 3rd largest "province", containing its most important city, its best universities, the home of its most widely spoken language, its equal best military, its biggest soft power, and about a sixth of its population and GDP. This is not something that casually happens to great empires on the up.
It would be like Imperial Rome losing all of Gaul, with a chunk of Spain as well. A colossal blow. And it has a currency which is a disaster waiting to happen.
Who would bow in vassalage to an empire so clearly on the decline?
The options are EU membership (rejected), isolation (not good), common ground with the EU (possible). What's the UK going to choose to be? I am not seeing a lot of debate about this.0 -
https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1345474262770057219/photo/1WhisperingOracle said:
The growths don't seem to be showing that that much yet, but on the other hand that seems to be what some anecdotal information seems to say.rottenborough said:
Is this new variant hitting younger people?WhisperingOracle said:
This is what's most concerning at the moment. Many more people seem to be surviving, but many more seem to be young. Maybe the two are connected.rottenborough said:0 -
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.3 -
According to Professor Neil Ferguson from the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, who also sits on the government’s New and Emerging Respiratory Virus Threats advisory group (Nervtag), early analysis of how and where it is spreading have also given “hints that it has a higher propensity to infect children”.
However, he stressed the link was still being investigated and was not yet proven. If it is proven that the new strain is more easily spread among children, this could account for “a significant proportion” of the increase in transmission, according to members of Nervtag.
Earlier strains of coronavirus found it harder to infect children than adults, with one explanation being that children don’t have as many of the ACE2 receptor doorways the virus uses to enter our body’s cells. Professor Wendy Barclay, from Nervtag and Imperial College London, said that mutations of the virus appear to be making it easier to enter the receptor doorways. She said this could be putting children on a “more level playing field” with adults as the virus was “less inhibited” in children.0 -
Nixon was President from Jan 1969 to Aug 1974.MarqueeMark said:
But Richard NixonSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Veep - 1953 - 1961.
Lost Presidncy to JFK in 1960
President 1968 - 1974
That should give Pence some comfort he might become President in 2029.....!
IF Eisenhower had lost his bid for re-election in 1956, with VP Nixon as running mate, would Dick have been presidential timber in 1960 or later? Doubtful at best.
Keep in mind that being a loser in America - especially in American politics - is NOT a good thing. Way worse in OUR culture than it is Europe (including obscure offshore islands).
Nixon pulled off the trick of the 20th century by being nominated AND elected after having lost a presidential election. And Mondale did well to be nominated after the 1980 defeat, even though he was trounced in the 1984 general.
Not sure that Mike Pence has what it takes to pull of the trick of the 21st century. Leastways not in 2024.0 -
I think a general point about what medium to long term direction we have or want and how much that is up for debate still makes sense, but end state is not the best descriptor for it. That suggests a level of permanence or inevitable progression.Leon said:
What the fuck is a "viable end state"? History is endless. That's the point. Everything changes, all the time. There are no end states where everything is set in stone forever, not even ancient Egypt (which lasted 3000 years).FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).1 -
Because you're a myopic fool who cannot see beyond the EU. Brexit is done. The EU is in our rear view mirror. Grow up.FF43 said:
Absolutely nothing is quite as laughable as "Anglosphere". At least the EU is a political, economic and diplomatic construct, which happens to contain most of the UK's peers, with whom a deal is genuinely possible.Leon said:
This is to presume the EU is as mighty, confident, powerful and immovable as imperial Rome or China. Which is, frankly, laughable.FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
It may have escaped your attention that the EU has just lost its 2nd or 3rd largest "province", containing its most important city, its best universities, the home of its most widely spoken language, its equal best military, its biggest soft power, and about a sixth of its population and GDP. This is not something that casually happens to great empires on the up.
It would be like Imperial Rome losing all of Gaul, with a chunk of Spain as well. A colossal blow. And it has a currency which is a disaster waiting to happen.
Who would bow in vassalage to an empire so clearly on the decline?
The options are EU membership (rejected), isolation (not good), common ground with the EU (possible). What's the UK going to choose to be? I am not seeing a lot of debate about this.1 -
What is a 'viable end state' exactly, and what happens to nations without one? The notion is ridiculous, like if we don't have a pretty dress we won't go to the ball.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Our foreign policy should simply support our prosperity, and (as a side affect) that of other nations, by keeping trade routes open, and espousing free and open trade. We should build up the Navy, and avoid continental engagements, and indeed land confrontations of any kind. That is the best policy - yesterday, today and forever.1 -
@rottenborough alternatively, we have this:
https://twitter.com/NickTriggle/status/1345477955129106434?s=200 -
That electoral bloodbath in the Red Wall is likely to concentrate a few minds...kle4 said:
Yeah, but what has he done for them lately?HYUFD said:
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to BorisIanB2 said:
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.MaxPB said:
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.Barnesian said:
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.Foxy said:
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
I genuinely think they are done.tlg86 said:
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.TheScreamingEagles said:According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
Loyalty will be there for some time, but in time they'll come to believe they won their seats because they are so good, not thanks to Boris.0 -
Wasn’t someone talking about wishes being the father of the thought earlier?Leon said:
No. Germany took in a sudden huge unvetted surge of mostly young men, often unskilled, many of them hostile to German culture. It was insane. It will not benefit Germany.WhisperingOracle said:
Germany's just had a huge influx of young-skewed migrants, which was probably quite a canny move for its economy. Italy's had a much less organised influx, which, being a much more culturally conservative society, it will probably take much longer to integrate.Leon said:
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.IshmaelZ said:
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.Stark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
From what I’ve read Germany seems to be making some serious efforts to integrate its new Germans.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/08/25/five-years-after-arrival-germanys-refugees-are-integrating3 -
Not inconsistent with the emerging hypothesis that children are spreading it bu not suffering hugely from it.Gallowgate said:@rottenborough alternatively, we have this:
https://twitter.com/NickTriggle/status/1345477955129106434?s=201 -
Torygraph promoting snake-oil I see: "Rosemary Conley - The 28-day Immunity Plan"rottenborough said:1 -
Were that to happen I would expect it more in 2 Parliamentary terms rather than one, depending on a) the current Government delivering *some* things, and b) how well the MPs connect with their constituencies.Foxy said:
That electoral bloodbath in the Red Wall is likely to concentrate a few minds...kle4 said:
Yeah, but what has he done for them lately?HYUFD said:
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to BorisIanB2 said:
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.MaxPB said:
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.Barnesian said:
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.Foxy said:
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
I genuinely think they are done.tlg86 said:
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.TheScreamingEagles said:According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
Loyalty will be there for some time, but in time they'll come to believe they won their seats because they are so good, not thanks to Boris.
AIUI Lib Dem experience is that a constituency focussed MP who digs in well is expected to last 2 or 3 terms.
Some then succeed and last longer, and in a very small number of places a tradition existed or gets created.0 -
If Biden/Harris are polling high in the polls in 2024 who else is going to bother to run other than Pence? Certainly not Trump, he is not that stupid and will stick to saying he was cheated in 2020 and likely few other establishment Republicans either. That was how Mondale won the nomination in 1984, few other major Democrats could be bothered to run to likely lose to a Reagan with sky high approval ratings.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Nixon was President from Jan 1969 to Aug 1974.MarqueeMark said:
But Richard NixonSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Veep - 1953 - 1961.
Lost Presidncy to JFK in 1960
President 1968 - 1974
That should give Pence some comfort he might become President in 2029.....!
IF Eisenhower had lost his bid for re-election in 1956, with VP Nixon as running mate, would Dick have been presidential timber in 1960 or later? Doubtful at best.
Keep in mind that being a loser in America - especially in American politics - is NOT a good thing. Way worse in OUR culture than it is Europe (including obscure offshore islands).
Nixon pulled off the trick of the 20th century by being nominated AND elected after having lost a presidential election. And Mondale did well to be nominated after the 1980 defeat, even though he was trounced in the 1984 general.
Not sure that Mike Pence has what it takes to pull of the trick of the 21st century. Leastways not in 2024.
The only way Pence is likely not the nominee in 2024 is if Biden/Harris are polling abysmally and there is a crowded GOP field given the strong likelihood of winning the presidency that November.0 -
It's not a plan. It's a rejection of a continent - the one the UK happens to be a part of - without any roadmap of how to get a substitute. The UK could probably do a bit more with Japan. It is very anti-China, which does have potential, at least in the long term. For the rest, the UK is doing it already or the other party isn't particularly interested.MarqueeMark said:
Of course, you are utterly screwed in your assessment if the UK just decides to work with the EU on a pratical day-to-day basis, whilst building an ever greater proportion of its trade and wealth with countries outside the EU.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Which, from where I am stood, looks to be exactly the plan.1 -
And I see that HY has ghost written the article two blocks further down.Benpointer said:
Torygraph promoting snake-oil I see: "Rosemary Conley - The 28-day Immunity Plan"rottenborough said:0 -
I very largely agree with you. I'm sure our views of Nixon are tainted by Watergate. But we have to remember, he was a very formidable presence in US politics. He only lost in 1960 in a VERY tight race. He has a much better claim to having been robbed of the Presidency than Trump ever will.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Nixon was President from Jan 1969 to Aug 1974.MarqueeMark said:
But Richard NixonSeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Veep - 1953 - 1961.
Lost Presidncy to JFK in 1960
President 1968 - 1974
That should give Pence some comfort he might become President in 2029.....!
IF Eisenhower had lost his bid for re-election in 1956, with VP Nixon as running mate, would Dick have been presidential timber in 1960 or later? Doubtful at best.
Keep in mind that being a loser in America - especially in American politics - is NOT a good thing. Way worse in OUR culture than it is Europe (including obscure offshore islands).
Nixon pulled off the trick of the 20th century by being nominated AND elected after having lost a presidential election. And Mondale did well to be nominated after the 1980 defeat, even though he was trounced in the 1984 general.
Not sure that Mike Pence has what it takes to pull of the trick of the 21st century. Leastways not in 2024.0 -
The mortality per case is about half it was in the first wave at all ages.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
Of course, if hospitals do become overwhelmed that may no longer be the case.3 -
I'd obviously, and presumably everyone would , like this to be wrong from a subjective perspective ; but unless I'm very much mistaken, there's still not that much reason to be sure about it from an objective perspective.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
From what I can gather, cases exploded by late November, and the new strain was already heavily in the majority by then. The pattern of deaths and possible lag time to that still doesn't seem to match up with the previous pattern so far.0 -
It's got one step and it involves a needle and a vial?Benpointer said:
Torygraph promoting snake-oil I see: "Rosemary Conley - The 28-day Immunity Plan"rottenborough said:2 -
-
Oh absolutely it refutes it, loss of Scotland would destroy the left in England for a generation and also any hope they have of reversing Brexit.Gallowgate said:
Everyone already knows that and it doesn't refute anything I said. You're stuck in the past and unable to conceive the future outside the parameters of "now".HYUFD said:
Without Scotland Cameron and May would have won majorities in 2010 and 2017 without even needing to win a single Red Wall seat that Boris won in 2019, that is how significant it would beGallowgate said:
Yes. @HYUFD seems to be unable to think outside the parameters of "now". Sure the loss of Scotland would pull rUK's politics further to the "right", but of course the new Tory coalition is much more left-wing economically than it has been for a long time anyway. And we have no idea what will happen in the future and its effect on the politics of rUK.IanB2 said:
Not necessarily. The break up of our country would shift our politics in ways it is currently hard to discern. Especially if Tory idiocy and obsession with Europe is seen to be the cause.HYUFD said:
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.IanB2 said:
Politics is rather more than simple maths.HYUFD said:
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.IanB2 said:
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...HYUFD said:
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.IanB2 said:
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
There's no guarantee of anything.
Loss of Scotland would also lead to a further surge in English Nationalism with the Tory Party effectively becoming the English National Party as the counterparty to the SNP, especially as English voters would not want any concessions to the SNP in Scexit negotiations0 -
Difficult to say in times of big change. Look at those seats in Scotland that have gone Labour, SNP, Conservative, SNP etc in a period of less than 10 years.MattW said:
Were that to happen I would expect it more in 2 Parliamentary terms rather than one, depending on the current Government delivering *some* things, and how well the MPs connect with their constituencies.Foxy said:
That electoral bloodbath in the Red Wall is likely to concentrate a few minds...kle4 said:
Yeah, but what has he done for them lately?HYUFD said:
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to BorisIanB2 said:
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.MaxPB said:
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.Barnesian said:
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.Foxy said:
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
I genuinely think they are done.tlg86 said:
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.TheScreamingEagles said:According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
Loyalty will be there for some time, but in time they'll come to believe they won their seats because they are so good, not thanks to Boris.
AIUI Lib Dem experience is that a constituency focussed MP who digs in well is expected to last 2 or 3 terms.
Some then succeed and last longer, and in a very small number of places a tradition existed or gets created.1 -
Good typo.MarqueeMark said:
Of course, you are utterly screwed in your assessment if the UK just decides to work with the EU on a pratical day-to-day basis, whilst building an ever greater proportion of its trade and wealth with countries outside the EU.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Which, from where I am stood, looks to be exactly the plan.0 -
You are arguing for isolation, I think. I don't agree with it and it wasn't our policy "yesterday". However it is an option, unlike the nonsense Leon spoutsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is a 'viable end state' exactly, and what happens to nations without one? The notion is ridiculous, like if we don't have a pretty dress we won't go to the ball.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Our foreign policy should simply support our prosperity, and (as a side affect) that of other nations, by keeping trade routes open, and espousing free and open trade. We should build up the Navy, and avoid continental engagements, and indeed land confrontations of any kind. That is the best policy - yesterday, today and forever.1 -
As shared by rcs, Ben Sasse is pretty thorough in addressing current exhortations to action.rottenborough said:
https://www.facebook.com/SenatorSasse/posts/35177059816606550 -
Well a Scottish "generation" is only 5-10 years or so, so we pretty much agree.HYUFD said:
Oh absolutely it refutes it, loss of Scotland would destroy the left in England for a generation and also any hope they have of reversing Brexit.Gallowgate said:
Everyone already knows that and it doesn't refute anything I said. You're stuck in the past and unable to conceive the future outside the parameters of "now".HYUFD said:
Without Scotland Cameron and May would have won majorities in 2010 and 2017 without even needing to win a single Red Wall seat that Boris won in 2019, that is how significant it would beGallowgate said:
Yes. @HYUFD seems to be unable to think outside the parameters of "now". Sure the loss of Scotland would pull rUK's politics further to the "right", but of course the new Tory coalition is much more left-wing economically than it has been for a long time anyway. And we have no idea what will happen in the future and its effect on the politics of rUK.IanB2 said:
Not necessarily. The break up of our country would shift our politics in ways it is currently hard to discern. Especially if Tory idiocy and obsession with Europe is seen to be the cause.HYUFD said:
As LBJ said the most important thing in politics is being able to count.IanB2 said:
Politics is rather more than simple maths.HYUFD said:
Just stating facts, if you lose the only 2 countries in the UK to vote Remain you leave a rUK, or England and Wales, that majority voted Leave in every constituent nation.IanB2 said:
Never mind the wood, you keep studying those trees...HYUFD said:
Actually the opposite, without Scotland's strong Remain vote there is near zero chance of the Leave voting England and Wales remainder ever rejoining the EU, especially as Tory majority governments will be much more likely in a UK minus Scotland than with a UK including Scotland. In fact minus Scotland Labour would not only have to become more Blairite but stick to accepting Brexit to ever win again, in fact even rejoining the single market would be unlikely and at most we would stick to something like the FTA we have now under both parties, with maybe a little more alignment under Labour.IanB2 said:
Sadly for the UK, the quickest route back to the EU for England is if Scotland votes indy and applies to join, and NI heads back as part of Ireland. That could easily all happen within ten years, not forty.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
If Remain voting NI rejoined the EU that would be even more the case, especially as the areas of NI most resistant to Irish unity are the only Leave voting areas in DUP dominated county Antrim
That would kill rejoin the EU and probably kill rejoin the single market too, just simple maths tells you that.
Plus of course the Tories would have won an overall majority in both 2010 and 2017 if Westminster lost its Scottish MPs, so it would also shift Westminster even further to the pro Brexit right
I am a diehard Unionist as is obvious but politically there is no doubt losing Scotland would shift the rUK remaining even further to the pro Brexit right and benefit the Tories most of all. The biggest losers by far would be the anti Brexit left who would have lost one of their core bastions in Scotland, leaving just London remaining.
There's no guarantee of anything.
Loss of Scotland would also lead to a further surge in English Nationalism with the Tory Party effectively becoming the English National Party as the counterparty to the SNP, especially as English voters wiould not want any concessions to the SNP in Scexit negotiations0 -
It could simply be that more people are getting it.WhisperingOracle said:
This is what's most concerning at the moment. Many more people seem to be surviving, but many more seem to be young. Maybe the two are connected.rottenborough said:
After all, the narrative that “the young are unaffected” was always bollocks, but a simplistic binary always appeals as a narrative and becomes hard to shift.
The young are less likely to get seriously ill. And, when they do, are a lot more likely to pull through with hospital assistance (sometimes a LOT of assistance).
Loads of people seemed to always read “less likely” as “never”. But when you have very large numbers of people exposed, less likely multiplied by very large numbers gives quite a lot.
Nearly a hundred children (14 and under) were hospitalised with this in one week during the November lockdown in England and Wales alone.
The numbers climb as you climb through the age bands.
It’s just that loads of elderly people get it bad and are less likely to pull through even with help.
The entire “average age of death” thing does seem to be saying that younger people dying is fine as long as a lot more old people die as well. Because that’s what the entire concept means, but so many people seem to have read it somewhat differently.0 -
Pence may be your favorite, but he's not mine - and NOT of most Republicans methinks when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
VPs or ex VPs who run normally win the nomination, Nixon, Humphrey, Mondale, Bush 41, Gore, Biden etc.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
And winning one state, his own Minnesota, plus DC.HYUFD said:
Last time a sitting VP was defeated for re-election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Walter Mondale in 1980, he ended up being his party's nominee for the next presidential election in 1984SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Just pointing out that shekels gambled on Pence may be less than a wise investment. Especially when IIRC Fritz Mondale did NOT have fanatical Jimmy Carter-ites chewing on his tender hindquarters.
Even IF the next four years do NOT turn out to be Morning in America Redux think that Pence's ties to The Donald will be more of an impediment than an asset.
Because for pro-Trumpskyites they will be too little, and for anti-Trumpers too much.
Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring!
If Trump did not run again in 2024, in which case he would be favourite, then Pence would take his place as favourite to be nominee, the Trump base would be behind him as the closest thing to their hero and unless Biden or Harris were polling very badly few other establishment Republicans would bother to challenge him, much as Mondale did not face a vast range of challengers in 1984 for the Democratic nod with Reagan well ahead in the polls.
Notion that Trumpsky base wil naturally rally around Pence is problematic to put it mildly, certainly untested.
As for 1984, note that Fritz Monday was NOT the favorite for the Democratic nomination until after Ted Kennedy announced he would NOT run. Even then, several US Senators tested the waters: Alan Cranston, John Glenn, Ernest Hollings and most significantly Gary Hart. In addition, Jesse Jackson entered the race and made quite a splash.
Mondale's status as VP for Carter AND as a US Senator previously helped him dispatch his fellow establishmentarian rivals, while Hart and Jackson ended up splitting the populist progressives.
Not sure current situation in lead-up to 2024 is all that similar.
Pence DOES have a shot, and a good one. Just NOT a slam dunk.0 -
"Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel..." Blimey, I knew about Lord Lawson but has he started a trend?FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).0 -
Is this the treatment, or the disease ?Foxy said:
The mortality per case is about half it was in the first wave at all ages.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
Of course, if hospitals do become overwhelmed that may no longer be the case.0 -
With very few exceptions a Constituency vote is just a delusion of the incumbent. Indeed in some cases there is a negative incumbency vote...MattW said:
Were that to happen I would expect it more in 2 Parliamentary terms rather than one, depending on a) the current Government delivering *some* things, and b) how well the MPs connect with their constituencies.Foxy said:
That electoral bloodbath in the Red Wall is likely to concentrate a few minds...kle4 said:
Yeah, but what has he done for them lately?HYUFD said:
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to BorisIanB2 said:
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.MaxPB said:
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.Barnesian said:
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.Foxy said:
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
I genuinely think they are done.tlg86 said:
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.TheScreamingEagles said:According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
Loyalty will be there for some time, but in time they'll come to believe they won their seats because they are so good, not thanks to Boris.
AIUI Lib Dem experience is that a constituency focussed MP who digs in well is expected to last 2 or 3 terms.
Some then succeed and last longer, and in a very small number of places a tradition existed or gets created.0 -
I agree with this. And add I don't think Brexit is a stable outcome, precisely because the UK doesn't know what it wants to be.kle4 said:
I think a general point about what medium to long term direction we have or want and how much that is up for debate still makes sense, but end state is not the best descriptor for it. That suggests a level of permanence or inevitable progression.Leon said:
What the fuck is a "viable end state"? History is endless. That's the point. Everything changes, all the time. There are no end states where everything is set in stone forever, not even ancient Egypt (which lasted 3000 years).FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).0 -
There is some serious trouble brewing in America. Legally Trump's case is hopeless. All the nonsense by politicians in Congress is (currently) grandstanding.
BUT Trump controls the levers of power. He controls the Department of Justice. Short of calling in the military i'm not sure exactly how they're going to get him out. All it takes is for Pence to do something stupid.
And the Republicans have publicly disavowed the rule of law. Even if something goes to SCOTUS and is chucked out they will not accept it. Because all their actions are based on ludicrous conspiracy theories about fraud which they say that the Courts are ignoring.0 -
Treatment, mostly basic stuff like better fluid and oxygen management, anticoagulation and dexamethasone.WhisperingOracle said:
Is this the treatment, or the disease ?Foxy said:
The mortality per case is about half it was in the first wave at all ages.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
Of course, if hospitals do become overwhelmed that may no longer be the case.1 -
They're not the harmless none-of-the-above option though. They're Tories in Government, so the verdict on them will be dominated by how well said Government does rather than how many villages fetes they manage to attend.MattW said:
Were that to happen I would expect it more in 2 Parliamentary terms rather than one, depending on a) the current Government delivering *some* things, and b) how well the MPs connect with their constituencies.Foxy said:
That electoral bloodbath in the Red Wall is likely to concentrate a few minds...kle4 said:
Yeah, but what has he done for them lately?HYUFD said:
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to BorisIanB2 said:
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.MaxPB said:
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.Barnesian said:
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.Foxy said:
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
I genuinely think they are done.tlg86 said:
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.TheScreamingEagles said:According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
Loyalty will be there for some time, but in time they'll come to believe they won their seats because they are so good, not thanks to Boris.
AIUI Lib Dem experience is that a constituency focussed MP who digs in well is expected to last 2 or 3 terms.
Some then succeed and last longer, and in a very small number of places a tradition existed or gets created.0 -
So Kennedy, Glenn etc did not bother to run because Reagan was almost certain to be re elected, leaving Mondale as the establishment candidate who easily saw off the remaining challengers, much as Pence would do in 2024 if Biden/Harris looked unbeatable.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Pence may be your favorite, but he's not mine - and NOT of most Republicans methinks when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
VPs or ex VPs who run normally win the nomination, Nixon, Humphrey, Mondale, Bush 41, Gore, Biden etc.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
And winning one state, his own Minnesota, plus DC.HYUFD said:
Last time a sitting VP was defeated for re-election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Walter Mondale in 1980, he ended up being his party's nominee for the next presidential election in 1984SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Just pointing out that shekels gambled on Pence may be less than a wise investment. Especially when IIRC Fritz Mondale did NOT have fanatical Jimmy Carter-ites chewing on his tender hindquarters.
Even IF the next four years do NOT turn out to be Morning in America Redux think that Pence's ties to The Donald will be more of an impediment than an asset.
Because for pro-Trumpskyites they will be too little, and for anti-Trumpers too much.
Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring!
If Trump did not run again in 2024, in which case he would be favourite, then Pence would take his place as favourite to be nominee, the Trump base would be behind him as the closest thing to their hero and unless Biden or Harris were polling very badly few other establishment Republicans would bother to challenge him, much as Mondale did not face a vast range of challengers in 1984 for the Democratic nod with Reagan well ahead in the polls.
Notion that Trumpsky base wil naturally rally around Pence is problematic to put it mildly, certainly untested.
As for 1984, note that Fritz Monday was NOT the favorite for the Democratic nomination until after Ted Kennedy announced he would NOT run. Even then, several US Senators tested the waters: Alan Cranston, John Glenn, Ernest Hollings and most significantly Gary Hart. In addition, Jesse Jackson entered the race and made quite a splash.
Mondale's status as VP for Carter AND as a US Senator previously helped him dispatch his fellow establishmentarian rivals, while Hart and Jackson ended up splitting the populist progressives.
Not sure current situation in lead-up to 2024 is all that similar.
Pence DOES have a shot, and a good one. Just NOT a slam dunk.
Early 2024 polling is clear, if Trump runs again he will win the GOP nomination, if not it will be Pence
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336144197028495360?s=20
0 -
@HYUFD interesting how you're happy to use polling from today to predict the result of the next presidential election but god forbid we use polling from today to predict the result of the next uk general election.
Literally no self awareness.2 -
Indeed. We’re just getting focus on them, and an overreaction from the “not any” to the “hang on, we’re looking at a hundred-plus kids per week hospitalised”Gallowgate said:@rottenborough alternatively, we have this:
https://twitter.com/NickTriggle/status/1345477955129106434?s=20
In the scale of over ten to fifteen thousand people hospitalised, it’s a small number. When people were operating on the assumption it was none to single figures or a dozen or so at the worst, it can feel like a lot.
It’s about the same rate it always has been. With current infection rates, I’d expect that to go across to two or three hundred kids per week in hospital, with maybe 30-60 into ICU per week.0 -
Nothing wrong with using foods to boost your immune system and general health. Not sure Rosemary Conley's plan is any good mind.Benpointer said:
Torygraph promoting snake-oil I see: "Rosemary Conley - The 28-day Immunity Plan"rottenborough said:0 -
Not true of sealing the nomination, though.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
1 -
Bloody hell, the way the government is messing up the vaccine roll out these buggers couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/13454922356856504331 -
The other problem is that people are mixing up the issue of whether schools should be closed as a way of containing the spread of the virus, and the danger to those actually in schools (children and teachers) from them being there.Andy_Cooke said:
Indeed. We’re just getting focus on them, and an overreaction from the “not any” to the “hang on, we’re looking at a hundred-plus kids per week hospitalised”Gallowgate said:@rottenborough alternatively, we have this:
https://twitter.com/NickTriggle/status/1345477955129106434?s=20
In the scale of over ten to fifteen thousand people hospitalised, it’s a small number. When people were operating on the assumption it was none to single figures or a dozen or so at the worst, it can feel like a lot.
It’s about the same rate it always has been. With current infection rates, I’d expect that to go across to two or three hundred kids per week in hospital, with maybe 30-60 into ICU per week.2 -
Cases fell from averaging in the low twenties of thousands in early to mid November to low teens of thousands by early December, and climbed rapidly through the twenties and thirties through mid December and are now running at a seven-day average in the forty-thousand-plus bracket.WhisperingOracle said:
I'd obviously, and presumably everyone would , like this to be wrong from a subjective perspective ; but unless I'm very much mistaken, there's still not that much reason to be sure about it from an objective perspective.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
From what I can gather, cases exploded by late November, and the new strain was already heavily in the majority by then. The pattern of deaths and possible lag time to that still doesn't seem to match up with the previous pattern so far.
You’d expect to see hospitalisations climbing rapidly from mid-late December and deaths start to climb from about now.1 -
Being and nothingness?Gallowgate said:0 -
#DreamTeamMaxPB said:
It's coming and for reasons other then brexit where I think he's united the party around his deal. Only two votes against and a few more abstentions speaks to how Boris has won and settled the internal debate on the EU.Nigel_Foremain said:
Agreed, but it shows a trend. The electorate may be waking up slowly to the idea that Boris Johnson is not up to the job, or it could be that We are seeing a return to normal mid term polling. My hope is that the Tories get rid of the clown/Trump-Lite and replace him with someone competent and prime ministerial in the next three years That way I might be able to vote for them again.MaxPB said:
Those green and brexit shares look too high, and the election is over 3 years away. I'm not sure that the situation now will relate to 2024 that well.TheScreamingEagles said:
The question really is who replaces him, I've got long odds bets on Liz and Rishi thanks to some shrewd tips from Casino_Royale and Philip_Thompson so either of them work nicely. They both also appeal to the same Thatcherite wing of the party so it will be interesting to see if Rishi beats her whether he makes her the chancellor. Would be a very tough pair for Labour to beat.
@david_herdson just got a chance to read your predictions FPT. Very good and well written, I agree with much of your thinking.0 -
Remaining in the EU is hardly stable, as it marches off towards being a federal state.FF43 said:
I agree with this. And add I don't think Brexit is a stable outcome, precisely because the UK doesn't know what it wants to be.kle4 said:
I think a general point about what medium to long term direction we have or want and how much that is up for debate still makes sense, but end state is not the best descriptor for it. That suggests a level of permanence or inevitable progression.Leon said:
What the fuck is a "viable end state"? History is endless. That's the point. Everything changes, all the time. There are no end states where everything is set in stone forever, not even ancient Egypt (which lasted 3000 years).FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).2 -
It has been suggested that Putin's development and announcement of new shiny things that go bang are aimed mainly at China rather than a Western or domestic audience.williamglenn said:
Aren't you taking for granted that China would only be interested in Siberia? Perhaps it's the West that will wish it didn't assume Russia would be there as a buffer.rcs1000 said:
That's the thing, isn't it?Gaussian said:
Which side will Russia be on?Leon said:
In the next few decades we will see political unification in the Anglosphere, and the wider WestGaussian said:
Brexit was win-win for Putin as it weakened both the UK and the EU. Scottish independence would add to the EU while weakening the UK, but either way it's rather insignificant in the grander scheme of things. If Putin cares at all, he might well prefer not to strengthen the EU.Nigel_Foremain said:
Plenty of pro “Indy” from RT though perhaps? How useful are you to Putin would you say? Brexiteers and Scottish Nationalists: peas in the pod of Putins grand scheme to gull the most gullible.Theuniondivvie said:
Plenty of anti indy pieces form outside Scotland (ie England) where the wish is father to the thought. Fortunately the puir, wee bastirt is increasingly fatherless in Scotland.MarqueeMark said:
Another piece of journalism from the US where the wish is father to the thought......IanB2 said:CNN: 2021 could see Britain ripped to pieces
It's not hard to see why the SNP's platform - leaving the UK and re-joining the EU under the leadership of Sturgeon - is so appealing to many north of the border. Conservatives in England are seriously worried that Johnson doesn't have either the energy or passion needed to combat it.
"There is genuine fear that Scotland could go under this government and that there is no energy going into addressing that," says one MP on the government's payroll. "We've struggled to make an emotional case for the Union. Partly that's because our focus is on our heartlands in England, but we are going to need to make a positive case beyond the economic benefits to Scotland."
Also, the more now Britain shifts from the EU, the more in common Northern Ireland has with the EU, and thus the Republic of Ireland," says Katy Hayward, professor of political sociology at Queen's University Belfast. The issue of the north becoming closer to the Republic has put a spring in the step of those who dream of reunification.
"Soft-nationalists who were pro-European -- and even some soft-Unionists -- have been forced to seriously rethink what Northern Ireland is and should be," says Matthew O'Toole, a Northern Irish lawmaker for the pro-reunification Social Democratic and Labour Party.
Since Johnson faces the prospect of fighting in Scotland and Northern Ireland, he risks overlooking Wales. "Covid has highlighted what devolution actually means, in terms of Welsh politicians being able to make independent policy that directly affects Welsh people," says Roger Awan-Scully, professor of politics at Cardiff University. “If Conservatives take a more aggressive line against devolution and pro-centralised control from London, it risks emboldening the anti-Westminster movement in Wales”.
If Johnson is unable to make leaving the EU look like a success and he alienates the public in Scotland, Northern Ireland and Wales, it's inevitable that more and more voters will wonder if the grass is greener outside of the United Kingdom.
China is becoming aggressive, and imperialist, for the first time in its history. It has always been puissant, and enormous, but was formerly content with flattery and obeisance. Now it expands, and it is bellicose.
The west will have to unite to counter it. I expect formal military and quasi-political union within the Five Eyes countries, of some sort. And the EU will be alongside.
Russia's barren, empty Eastern quarter, stuffed full of natural resources, is just what China needs. A sort of Northern Resource Area, a part of the new North Asia Co-Prosperity sphere.
Maybe China makes a move to the North, and suddenly Russia wishes it had made more friends in the West.0 -
Bollocks. Our previous European policy was devised by a bunch of arrogant pricks who were never reconciled to the fact that we had lost an Empire and who were conceited and delusional enough to think that Britain would naturally end up leading the European Community. They never understood or came to terms with how both Europe and the World had changed and you can see it through successive Governments from Heath through to Cameron expecting the EEC/EU to bend to their will and then spluttering incomprehensively when it didn't.Stark_Dawning said:
Yes. We're going to have to confront these vastly difficult conundrums sooner rather than later. Our previous European policy was decades in the making by some of Britain's finest minds. (Boris's comedic columnist's waffle about Rule Britannia and whatever won't cut it for much longer I'm afraid.)FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Good old De Gaulle had it right back in the 60s.2 -
But then if mortality per case is about half the first wave so far , as Foxy says, who knows what we'll see compared to the spring ?Andy_Cooke said:
Cases fell from averaging in the low twenties of thousands in early to mid November to low teens of thousands by early December, and climbed rapidly through the twenties and thirties through mid December and are now running at a seven-day average in the forty-thousand-plus bracket.WhisperingOracle said:
I'd obviously, and presumably everyone would , like this to be wrong from a subjective perspective ; but unless I'm very much mistaken, there's still not that much reason to be sure about it from an objective perspective.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
From what I can gather, cases exploded by late November, and the new strain was already heavily in the majority by then. The pattern of deaths and possible lag time to that still doesn't seem to match up with the previous pattern so far.
You’d expect to see hospitalisations climbing rapidly from mid-late December and deaths start to climb from about now.0 -
Its hardly a surprise though, is it? They have fucked up absolutely everything else so it would have been extraordinary had this gone smoothly.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, the way the government is messing up the vaccine roll out these buggers couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/13454922356856504332 -
OK, if you really want to use today's MRP polling to predict the next election.Gallowgate said:@HYUFD interesting how you're happy to use polling from today to predict the result of the next presidential election but god forbid we use polling from today to predict the result of the next uk general election.
Literally no self awareness.
It gives Labour and the SNP 339 seats combined, ie a clear majority to 284 for the Tories.
However minus Scotland and the SNP seats it puts the Tories still largest party on 284 seats to just 282 for Labour.
That is a huge change and that is before the polling next week which likely will give Boris a poll bounce following the Brexit Deal to retake the lead.
So there may be no self awareness but that is from you not me0 -
We need Trafalgar to start doing GB 'polls'.Gallowgate said:@HYUFD interesting how you're happy to use polling from today to predict the result of the next presidential election but god forbid we use polling from today to predict the result of the next uk general election.
Literally no self awareness.0 -
It was the *best* policy yesterday. When 18th century Britain decided to concentrate on Naval power and stop engaging in European land conflicts, we had the 'Annus Mirabilis'. When we started again in earnest, we had World War 1. These things are simpler than they seem.FF43 said:
You are arguing for isolation, I think. I don't agree with it and it wasn't our policy "yesterday". However it is an option, unlike the nonsense Leon spoutsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is a 'viable end state' exactly, and what happens to nations without one? The notion is ridiculous, like if we don't have a pretty dress we won't go to the ball.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Our foreign policy should simply support our prosperity, and (as a side affect) that of other nations, by keeping trade routes open, and espousing free and open trade. We should build up the Navy, and avoid continental engagements, and indeed land confrontations of any kind. That is the best policy - yesterday, today and forever.0 -
My friend in the CDU is pretty comfortable with the Syrian integration into Germany. His motives are a bit suspect to me, but he sees these immigrants as mostly being in trade when in Syria, good with people and just what Germany needs.Theuniondivvie said:
Wasn’t someone talking about wishes being the father of the thought earlier?Leon said:
No. Germany took in a sudden huge unvetted surge of mostly young men, often unskilled, many of them hostile to German culture. It was insane. It will not benefit Germany.WhisperingOracle said:
Germany's just had a huge influx of young-skewed migrants, which was probably quite a canny move for its economy. Italy's had a much less organised influx, which, being a much more culturally conservative society, it will probably take much longer to integrate.Leon said:
Or further away, depending on what brings more trade advantages. IF Europe completely stagnates (look at the demography of Italy, or even Germany) then the EU will soon seem much less appealing.IshmaelZ said:
It won't be a battle to rejoin, or at least not for decades, it will be a series of skirmishes on a series of points designed in each case to align us more closely with where we used to be.Stark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
From what I’ve read Germany seems to be making some serious efforts to integrate its new Germans.
https://www.economist.com/europe/2020/08/25/five-years-after-arrival-germanys-refugees-are-integrating0 -
Indeed. That LD incumbency melted like this week's snowfall in the harsh apericity of 5 years in government.Gaussian said:
They're not the harmless none-of-the-above option though. They're Tories in Government, so the verdict on them will be dominated by how well said Government does rather than how many villages fetes they manage to attend.MattW said:
Were that to happen I would expect it more in 2 Parliamentary terms rather than one, depending on a) the current Government delivering *some* things, and b) how well the MPs connect with their constituencies.Foxy said:
That electoral bloodbath in the Red Wall is likely to concentrate a few minds...kle4 said:
Yeah, but what has he done for them lately?HYUFD said:
Hardly, 48 new Tory MPs owe their seats won in 2019 to BorisIanB2 said:
And even Tory MPs can simply see that he isn’t that good.MaxPB said:
But that's part of why Boris isn't going to be PM at the next election, he'll last out until he's PM for longer than Theresa May but ultimately he's already made too many mistakes this year and burned far too much political capital to ensure his own survival.Barnesian said:
And in marginal Tory/LD seats, pro-EU Tories will vote LD where they wouldn't last time because of Corbyn.Foxy said:
As a LD party member, I agree that at national level things look very bleak. In England the anti-Tory vote is consolidating with Labour. Bad for LDs, but probably worse for the Tories, as in target seats both LD and Green will vote tactically, in a way they would not for Corbyn.TheScreamingEagles said:
I genuinely think they are done.tlg86 said:
So either the Lib Dem’s are done - I actually think it’s possible they get wiped out next time - or perhaps mid-term polling is a waste of time.TheScreamingEagles said:According to the poll, the Liberal Democrats would crumble to just two seats in parliament, down from 11 won in the last general election.
A quarter of those who voted Lib Dem in 2019 say they would now vote Labour. The poll says the Lib Dems would cling on only to Bath, and Kingston and Surbiton, both by the tightest of margins. The party won 62 seats in 2005.
At the last election they were the only GB wide party with a polarised electorate, they were pitching for 48% of voters and they ballsed that up.
Even in my own seat, where Jared O'Mara had done so much to put off people voting Labour the Lib Dems failed, there's something really wrong. It's just not the impact of going into coalition with the Tories.
I'm surprised by the antipathy to Johnson and his cabinet by Tories here in Barnes including Tory members. They are spitting angry.
Boris brings precisely one thing to the table - he's a winner. If he looks like he's not going to win then there's little point to keeping him around. MPs looking at their own majorities in the middle of next year when the Tories are 5 points down on Labour will make their move. Boris has made too many enemies in the parliamentary party, very much like Theresa May did, just for reasons other than Brexit.
Loyalty will be there for some time, but in time they'll come to believe they won their seats because they are so good, not thanks to Boris.
AIUI Lib Dem experience is that a constituency focussed MP who digs in well is expected to last 2 or 3 terms.
Some then succeed and last longer, and in a very small number of places a tradition existed or gets created.1 -
Cranston, Glenn, Hollings and a few other establishment types DID run, they just didn't get very far.HYUFD said:
So Kennedy, Glenn etc did not bother to run because Reagan was almost certain to be re elected, leaving Mondale as the establishment candidate who easily saw off the remaining challengers, much as Pence would do in 2024 if Biden/Harris looked unbeatable.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Pence may be your favorite, but he's not mine - and NOT of most Republicans methinks when push comes to shove.HYUFD said:
VPs or ex VPs who run normally win the nomination, Nixon, Humphrey, Mondale, Bush 41, Gore, Biden etc.SeaShantyIrish2 said:
And winning one state, his own Minnesota, plus DC.HYUFD said:
Last time a sitting VP was defeated for re-election after only 1 term of his party in the White House, Walter Mondale in 1980, he ended up being his party's nominee for the next presidential election in 1984SeaShantyIrish2 said:
Last time that a sitting VP was defeated for re-election, then went on to be nominated and elected POTUS was - never.Alistair said:I would be laying Pence for 2024 (price dependent)
Just pointing out that shekels gambled on Pence may be less than a wise investment. Especially when IIRC Fritz Mondale did NOT have fanatical Jimmy Carter-ites chewing on his tender hindquarters.
Even IF the next four years do NOT turn out to be Morning in America Redux think that Pence's ties to The Donald will be more of an impediment than an asset.
Because for pro-Trumpskyites they will be too little, and for anti-Trumpers too much.
Neither fish nor fowl nor good red herring!
If Trump did not run again in 2024, in which case he would be favourite, then Pence would take his place as favourite to be nominee, the Trump base would be behind him as the closest thing to their hero and unless Biden or Harris were polling very badly few other establishment Republicans would bother to challenge him, much as Mondale did not face a vast range of challengers in 1984 for the Democratic nod with Reagan well ahead in the polls.
Notion that Trumpsky base wil naturally rally around Pence is problematic to put it mildly, certainly untested.
As for 1984, note that Fritz Monday was NOT the favorite for the Democratic nomination until after Ted Kennedy announced he would NOT run. Even then, several US Senators tested the waters: Alan Cranston, John Glenn, Ernest Hollings and most significantly Gary Hart. In addition, Jesse Jackson entered the race and made quite a splash.
Mondale's status as VP for Carter AND as a US Senator previously helped him dispatch his fellow establishmentarian rivals, while Hart and Jackson ended up splitting the populist progressives.
Not sure current situation in lead-up to 2024 is all that similar.
Pence DOES have a shot, and a good one. Just NOT a slam dunk.
Early 2024 polling is clear, if Trump runs again he will win the GOP nomination, if not it will be Pence
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336144197028495360?s=20
Notion that "early 2024" polling is determinative, or even more than mildly interesting, is a streeeeeeeeeeeetch.0 -
I mean the fact that 1 in 4 people in England don't live in areas with a vaccination centre.RochdalePioneers said:
Its hardly a surprise though, is it? They have fucked up absolutely everything else so it would have been extraordinary had this gone smoothly.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, the way the government is messing up the vaccine roll out these buggers couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1345492235685650433
I mean that's like 13 million people, no biggie.0 -
Not Cities of London & Westminster - 2019 is likely to have been an aberration there. Labour also held Wimbledon 1997 - 2005 and performed strongly there in 2017.HYUFD said:
I agree the LDs best hope is still posh Remain areas that will still not vote Labour ie SW London, Wimbledon, Winchester, West Oxford, St Albans, Esher and Walton, Guildford, Wokingham, Cities of London and Westminster, Bath, Cheltenham, Tunbridge Wells etcNigel_Foremain said:
Don’t completely agree. a lot of people still don’t trust Labour, and the Tories are the party of the populist far right for the time being. Until the former really throw off the stigma of the Corbyn years and kick out the far left and the Tories eventually realise Johnson is a rudderless joke And replace him with someone competent then there are plenty of opportunities for the LDs. They will need to bide their time. Personally I think their fortunes will track Kier Starmer’s. If Starmer does well and Labour is no longer seen as a threat to moderates, the LDs will ale centrist seats as they did in 1997.HYUFD said:
The LDs exist currently as a relatively fiscally conservative, socially liberal party for diehard Remainers or Unionists in Scotland.Pulpstar said:The Lib Dems need to work out what they're for. They died with their boots on opposing Brexit.
With Labour now the party for social democrats, the Tories the party for Brexiteers and the SNP the party for Scottish nationalists there is not really much room for them to be much else0 -
This is from a German study, a few months ago. It might be a bit better still by now.
Not sure if @Malmesbury has adjusted his projected deaths along these lines.
I think that it is the drop in deaths in the very old that makes it seem as if middle aged and younger groups are doing worse in the second wave. They become a higher proportion of deaths due to the big drop in elderly mortality.
1 -
Presumably at noon on 21st it becomes illegal to follow any order from Trump. He has literally no status in government at that point.alex_ said:There is some serious trouble brewing in America. Legally Trump's case is hopeless. All the nonsense by politicians in Congress is (currently) grandstanding.
BUT Trump controls the levers of power. He controls the Department of Justice. Short of calling in the military i'm not sure exactly how they're going to get him out. All it takes is for Pence to do something stupid.
And the Republicans have publicly disavowed the rule of law. Even if something goes to SCOTUS and is chucked out they will not accept it. Because all their actions are based on ludicrous conspiracy theories about fraud which they say that the Courts are ignoring.
2 -
"Money can't buy you love. Discuss. Use both sides of the paper...."Foxy said:
Being and nothingness?Gallowgate said:0 -
No I don't want to use today's MRP poll to predict the next general election because I recognise a lot can change in the meantime. It is therefore purely informative of the current state of play as well as being amusing.HYUFD said:
OK, if you really want to use today's MRP polling to predict the next election.Gallowgate said:@HYUFD interesting how you're happy to use polling from today to predict the result of the next presidential election but god forbid we use polling from today to predict the result of the next uk general election.
Literally no self awareness.
It gives Labour and the SNP 339 seats combined, ie a clear majority to 284 for the Tories.
However minus Scotland and the SNP seats it puts the Tories still largest party on 284 seats to just 282 for Labour.
That is a huge change and that is before the polling next week which likely will give Boris a poll bounce following the Brexit Deal to retake the lead.
So there may be no self awareness but that is from you not me
Btw there's no guarantee of any meaningful poll bounce considering for most people Brexit was concluded a year ago.0 -
But it's a lose lose situation. The lower mortality rate is a negatively compensating factor because it is increasing hospital occupation. The hospitals are being overwhelmed because they can't discharge people quicker than they are taking them in. And horrible though it is to state this - one contributing factor to this is fewer people dying (but tying up hospital beds for longer).WhisperingOracle said:
But then if mortality per case is about half the first wave so far, as Foxy says, who knows what we'll see compared to the spring ?Andy_Cooke said:
Cases fell from averaging in the low twenties of thousands in early to mid November to low teens of thousands by early December, and climbed rapidly through the twenties and thirties through mid December and are now running at a seven-day average in the forty-thousand-plus bracket.WhisperingOracle said:
I'd obviously, and presumably everyone would , like this to be wrong from a subjective perspective ; but unless I'm very much mistaken, there's still not that much reason to be sure about it from an objective perspective.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
From what I can gather, cases exploded by late November, and the new strain was already heavily in the majority by then. The pattern of deaths and possible lag time to that still doesn't seem to match up with the previous pattern so far.
You’d expect to see hospitalisations climbing rapidly from mid-late December and deaths start to climb from about now.
Apparently also the NHS are calling upon senior GPs to help out in hospitals, because they are desperately short of people with the level of expertise to safely discharge patients.0 -
We need to be wary of this sort of thing. I can quite believe many in the BBC were surprised when Boris won but, realistically, how many did your 2008 contact know well enough to tell? Ten, twelve? I spent years working with, largely, the same group of people but could not tell you who they voted for, let alone how confident they were of victory.Andy_JS said:
I knew someone who worked for the BBC in 2008 who told me nearly everyone working there was shocked when Boris Johnson was elected mayor of London because they "didn't know anyone" who supported him. That was nearly 13 years ago.HYUFD said:0 -
I don't expect the UK to be a member of the EU in any sensible planning horizon (never have done since June 2016). I am more interested in what happens instead.Fishing said:
Remaining in the EU is hardly stable, as it marches off towards being a federal state.FF43 said:
I agree with this. And add I don't think Brexit is a stable outcome, precisely because the UK doesn't know what it wants to be.kle4 said:
I think a general point about what medium to long term direction we have or want and how much that is up for debate still makes sense, but end state is not the best descriptor for it. That suggests a level of permanence or inevitable progression.Leon said:
What the fuck is a "viable end state"? History is endless. That's the point. Everything changes, all the time. There are no end states where everything is set in stone forever, not even ancient Egypt (which lasted 3000 years).FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).0 -
*Cons Gain Bootle*TheScreamingEagles said:
We need Trafalgar to start doing GB 'polls'.Gallowgate said:@HYUFD interesting how you're happy to use polling from today to predict the result of the next presidential election but god forbid we use polling from today to predict the result of the next uk general election.
Literally no self awareness.1 -
Complete and utter codswallop that the EU are our only peers. Our peers are around the globe. It is absolutely preposterous to suggest that fellow G7 and English speaking Canada is not a peer but the rest of Europe all are.FF43 said:
Absolutely nothing is quite as laughable as "Anglosphere". At least the EU is a political, economic and diplomatic construct, which happens to contain most of the UK's peers, with whom a deal is genuinely possible.Leon said:
This is to presume the EU is as mighty, confident, powerful and immovable as imperial Rome or China. Which is, frankly, laughable.FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
It may have escaped your attention that the EU has just lost its 2nd or 3rd largest "province", containing its most important city, its best universities, the home of its most widely spoken language, its equal best military, its biggest soft power, and about a sixth of its population and GDP. This is not something that casually happens to great empires on the up.
It would be like Imperial Rome losing all of Gaul, with a chunk of Spain as well. A colossal blow. And it has a currency which is a disaster waiting to happen.
Who would bow in vassalage to an empire so clearly on the decline?
The options are EU membership (rejected), isolation (not good), common ground with the EU (possible). What's the UK going to choose to be? I am not seeing a lot of debate about this.
People on your side of the fence mock 'little Englanders' but the real little ones are the little Europeans who can't see beyond their tiny corner of the globe. There is a big wide world out there and Europe is just one teensy tiny fraction of it.3 -
Yes, this NHS capacity issue seems to be absolutely fundamental now - an emergency.alex_ said:
But it's a lose lose situation. The lower mortality rate is a negatively compensating factor because it is increasing hospital occupation. The hospitals are being overwhelmed because they can't discharge people quicker than they are taking them in. And horrible though it is to state this - one contributing factor to this is fewer people dying (but tying up hospital beds for longer).WhisperingOracle said:
But then if mortality per case is about half the first wave so far, as Foxy says, who knows what we'll see compared to the spring ?Andy_Cooke said:
Cases fell from averaging in the low twenties of thousands in early to mid November to low teens of thousands by early December, and climbed rapidly through the twenties and thirties through mid December and are now running at a seven-day average in the forty-thousand-plus bracket.WhisperingOracle said:
I'd obviously, and presumably everyone would , like this to be wrong from a subjective perspective ; but unless I'm very much mistaken, there's still not that much reason to be sure about it from an objective perspective.Andy_Cooke said:
Deaths of people on the 29th of December are probably from infections around the 9th of December, and hospitalisations around the 19th of December.WhisperingOracle said:
On the March/April pattern, the deaths should by now already thus surely be far, far higher than we've seen.Gaussian said:
Far too late.TheScreamingEagles said:Build a wall around London and the South NOW!
https://twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1345459896335085572
Current official 7 day average for Manchester: 208.6.
But that's Dec 22-28.
Cases for Dec 22-24: 185+143+61 = 389
Cases for Dec 29-31: 327+265+198 = 790
So that's double already, yet the numbers for those days aren't even complete yet. And Christmas Day mixing and the Boxing Day sales haven't hit the numbers yet ...
Hospitalisations then were 50% lower than the latest data we’ve got, and infections were half of current levels.
Conclusion: The deaths haven’t come through yet. Three weeks lag from infection to death plus a week to come out in the data afterwards seems to lead people astray every time.
From what I can gather, cases exploded by late November, and the new strain was already heavily in the majority by then. The pattern of deaths and possible lag time to that still doesn't seem to match up with the previous pattern so far.
You’d expect to see hospitalisations climbing rapidly from mid-late December and deaths start to climb from about now.
Apparently also the NHS are calling upon senior GPs to help out in hospitals, because they are desperately short of people with the level of expertise to safely discharge patients.0 -
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-9106509/Coronavirus-London-childrens-hospital-consultant-says-wards-NOT-youngsters-Covid.htmlrottenborough said:
https://twitter.com/MichaelYeadon3/status/1345474262770057219/photo/1WhisperingOracle said:
The growths don't seem to be showing that that much yet, but on the other hand that seems to be what some anecdotal information seems to say.rottenborough said:
Is this new variant hitting younger people?WhisperingOracle said:
This is what's most concerning at the moment. Many more people seem to be surviving, but many more seem to be young. Maybe the two are connected.rottenborough said:0 -
They have had nine f*cking months to plan this. Nine months!!TheScreamingEagles said:
I mean the fact that 1 in 4 people in England don't live in areas with a vaccination centre.RochdalePioneers said:
Its hardly a surprise though, is it? They have fucked up absolutely everything else so it would have been extraordinary had this gone smoothly.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, the way the government is messing up the vaccine roll out these buggers couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1345492235685650433
I mean that's like 13 million people, no biggie.
What the f do these people do all day at PHE, NHS HQ, Hancock's team?1 -
Does that story indicate a Boris fuck up? It's about the lack of vaccination centres in some areas - not sure whose responsibility that is, but I'm pretty sure it's not the PM's. I'm not sure it's a fuck up at all given the particular batch size for the Pfizer jab practically guarantees unequal distribution.RochdalePioneers said:
Its hardly a surprise though, is it? They have fucked up absolutely everything else so it would have been extraordinary had this gone smoothly.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, the way the government is messing up the vaccine roll out these buggers couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/13454922356856504330 -
Apart from all the times it did...Richard_Tyndall said:They never understood or came to terms with how both Europe and the World had changed and you can see it through successive Governments from Heath through to Cameron expecting the EEC/EU to bend to their will and then spluttering incomprehensively when it didn't.
0 -
Con gain all seven Glasgow seats.MarqueeMark said:
*Cons Gain Bootle*TheScreamingEagles said:
We need Trafalgar to start doing GB 'polls'.Gallowgate said:@HYUFD interesting how you're happy to use polling from today to predict the result of the next presidential election but god forbid we use polling from today to predict the result of the next uk general election.
Literally no self awareness.1 -
*Lab Gain Epping Forest*MarqueeMark said:
*Cons Gain Bootle*TheScreamingEagles said:
We need Trafalgar to start doing GB 'polls'.Gallowgate said:@HYUFD interesting how you're happy to use polling from today to predict the result of the next presidential election but god forbid we use polling from today to predict the result of the next uk general election.
Literally no self awareness.3 -
Pretty sure if they f up the vaccine then this government is dead man walking.RochdalePioneers said:
Its hardly a surprise though, is it? They have fucked up absolutely everything else so it would have been extraordinary had this gone smoothly.TheScreamingEagles said:Bloody hell, the way the government is messing up the vaccine roll out these buggers couldn't organise a pregnancy on a council estate.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/13454922356856504330 -
I'm not arguing for any outcome or policy, I'm just pointing out, quite humbly, that you are a fricking idiot.FF43 said:
You are arguing for isolation, I think. I don't agree with it and it wasn't our policy "yesterday". However it is an option, unlike the nonsense Leon spoutsLuckyguy1983 said:
What is a 'viable end state' exactly, and what happens to nations without one? The notion is ridiculous, like if we don't have a pretty dress we won't go to the ball.FF43 said:
Exactly. That's why Brexit is so not over. The UK doesn't have a viable end state and the UK government is not trying to get one.MarqueeMark said:
Good luck to the political party out selling "Vassal State" on the doorsteps.....FF43 said:
The UK should give serious thought to becoming a vassal state of the European Union. I don't mean colony. I mean the kind of independent state on the fringes of the Roman and Chinese empires that threw their lot in with the bigger party in exchange for favourable treatment. The UK doesn't have a Europe policy of any kind right now and it needs one, along with a thought-through general foreign policy. It has rejected EU membership and isolation doesn't suit it. Vassal State is probably the best other option, albeit not great from a sovereigntist point of view. Most of the UK's peers are on the other side of the Channel and that's where the UK's best prospects lie.Leon said:
Total bullshitStark_Dawning said:
He's absolutely correct, though it won't happen overnight. However, Brexit will prove such a major let-down that its advocates will be broken men who will have neither the stamina nor the arguments to resist when the pendulum begins its inevitable swing in the other direction.HYUFD said:Lord Heseltine declares 'the battle to rejoin the EU' has now begun
https://twitter.com/LBC/status/1344921057409568768?s=20
Brexit means Brexit, and Brexit will be.... Brexit. Some will see its advantages, and some will see it horrors. Most - the vast majority - will shrug, and sigh with relief that it is all over. The appetite to repeat this horrendous battle will be approximately zero.
That does not mean Rejoin is impossible as a concept. It just means it is roughly where euroscepticism was in about 1980. Forty years of campaigning from the next referendum, if you really stick at it. And of course there is the very high likelihood that by then the EU will have morphed into something we can never tolerate, or will have disintegrated altogether (as, also, might the UK).
Our foreign policy should simply support our prosperity, and (as a side affect) that of other nations, by keeping trade routes open, and espousing free and open trade. We should build up the Navy, and avoid continental engagements, and indeed land confrontations of any kind. That is the best policy - yesterday, today and forever.-1 -
Reportedly he is asking his team what point there is in him stopping now. In his delusional state there is merit in being literally dragged out of office - as the election has been Stolen from the American People why would he go voluntarily?rottenborough said:
Presumably at noon on 21st it becomes illegal to follow any order from Trump. He has literally no status in government at that point.alex_ said:There is some serious trouble brewing in America. Legally Trump's case is hopeless. All the nonsense by politicians in Congress is (currently) grandstanding.
BUT Trump controls the levers of power. He controls the Department of Justice. Short of calling in the military i'm not sure exactly how they're going to get him out. All it takes is for Pence to do something stupid.
And the Republicans have publicly disavowed the rule of law. Even if something goes to SCOTUS and is chucked out they will not accept it. Because all their actions are based on ludicrous conspiracy theories about fraud which they say that the Courts are ignoring.0 -
If we make it to 20th Jan in one piece then we are fine. But i still feel that there is the possibility that they are trying to find a way to avoid declaring Biden President. It seems impossible. But things are ramping up VERY fast. And i don't think it's being instigated primarily by Trump - he hasn't really got a clue what is going on (i think he might actually be mad). But people are feeding him crazy theories of what can be done, and he's grabbing onto them.rottenborough said:
Presumably at noon on 21st it becomes illegal to follow any order from Trump. He has literally no status in government at that point.alex_ said:There is some serious trouble brewing in America. Legally Trump's case is hopeless. All the nonsense by politicians in Congress is (currently) grandstanding.
BUT Trump controls the levers of power. He controls the Department of Justice. Short of calling in the military i'm not sure exactly how they're going to get him out. All it takes is for Pence to do something stupid.
And the Republicans have publicly disavowed the rule of law. Even if something goes to SCOTUS and is chucked out they will not accept it. Because all their actions are based on ludicrous conspiracy theories about fraud which they say that the Courts are ignoring.0 -
To stay in power he needs the military's assistance.alex_ said:
If we make it to 20th Jan in one piece then we are fine. But i still feel that there is the possibility that they are trying to find a way to avoid declaring Biden President. It seems impossible. But things are ramping up VERY fast. And i don't think it's being instigated primarily by Trump - he hasn't really got a clue what is going on (i think he might actually be mad). But people are feeding him crazy theories of what can be done, and he's grabbing onto them.rottenborough said:
Presumably at noon on 21st it becomes illegal to follow any order from Trump. He has literally no status in government at that point.alex_ said:There is some serious trouble brewing in America. Legally Trump's case is hopeless. All the nonsense by politicians in Congress is (currently) grandstanding.
BUT Trump controls the levers of power. He controls the Department of Justice. Short of calling in the military i'm not sure exactly how they're going to get him out. All it takes is for Pence to do something stupid.
And the Republicans have publicly disavowed the rule of law. Even if something goes to SCOTUS and is chucked out they will not accept it. Because all their actions are based on ludicrous conspiracy theories about fraud which they say that the Courts are ignoring.
I'm fairly confident he won't get it.0 -
It's also why my central forecast for tier levels is much more bearish than it was a few weeks ago. With the new covid variant it will be much slower to open up as young people are clogging up hospitals in large absolute numbers even of the proportion that are hospitalised is still fairly low.WhisperingOracle said:
This is what's most concerning at the moment. Many more people seem to be surviving, but many more seem to be young. Maybe the two are connected.rottenborough said:
I'm fairy confident in my July forecast, I can't see where Boris is getting the 5th of April from, it seems like a really arbitrary date.0
This discussion has been closed.