politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » Local By-Election Preview : June 12th 2014
Now, I know there is the small matter of a massive football competition happening in Brazil over the next few weeks which will (according to Bloomberg television) attract some $5 billion worth of bets during the competition, but let’s not forget that with the Liberal Democrats on 6% of the vote in some polls and UKIP’s leader declaring over £200,000 worth of gifts in the last ten …
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I think we missed Baghdad north which on preliminary results seems to be an ISIS gain on a remarkable swing.0
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Would that be the result of them "going postal" ?DavidL said:I think we missed Baghdad north which on preliminary results seems to be an ISIS gain on a remarkable swing.
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Latest
20.05 The Associated Press reports that a small group of US military personnel and several hundred contractors, who were training the Iraqi military to use drones and fighter jets, are being evacuated from an Iraqi airbase.
QuoteOfficials say three planeloads of Americans are being evacuated from a major Iraqi air base in Sunni territory north of Baghdad to escape potential threats from a fast-moving insurgency.
A current US official and a former senior Obama administration official say that means the American training mission at the air field in Balad has been grounded indefinitely.
Twelve US personnel who were stationed at Balad were the first to be evacuated. Several hundred American contractors are still waiting to leave.
They have been training Iraqi forces to use fighter jets and surveillance drones.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10892299/Iraq-crisis-al-Qaeda-militants-push-towards-Baghdad-live.html0 -
It's what people are always telling me on here. It is the ground game that counts.MarkHopkins said:
Would that be the result of them "going postal" ?DavidL said:I think we missed Baghdad north which on preliminary results seems to be an ISIS gain on a remarkable swing.
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It's sounding like Saigon all over again. Remarkable.RodCrosby said:Latest
20.05 The Associated Press reports that a small group of US military personnel and several hundred contractors, who were training the Iraqi military to use drones and fighter jets, are being evacuated from an Iraqi airbase.
QuoteOfficials say three planeloads of Americans are being evacuated from a major Iraqi air base in Sunni territory north of Baghdad to escape potential threats from a fast-moving insurgency.
A current US official and a former senior Obama administration official say that means the American training mission at the air field in Balad has been grounded indefinitely.
Twelve US personnel who were stationed at Balad were the first to be evacuated. Several hundred American contractors are still waiting to leave.
They have been training Iraqi forces to use fighter jets and surveillance drones.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10892299/Iraq-crisis-al-Qaeda-militants-push-towards-Baghdad-live.html
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Good evening, everyone.
Cheers to Mr. Hayfield for this piece.0 -
Indeed, Balad was one of, if not the most important airbase in Iraq...DavidL said:
It's sounding like Saigon all over again. Remarkable.RodCrosby said:Latest
20.05 The Associated Press reports that a small group of US military personnel and several hundred contractors, who were training the Iraqi military to use drones and fighter jets, are being evacuated from an Iraqi airbase.
QuoteOfficials say three planeloads of Americans are being evacuated from a major Iraqi air base in Sunni territory north of Baghdad to escape potential threats from a fast-moving insurgency.
A current US official and a former senior Obama administration official say that means the American training mission at the air field in Balad has been grounded indefinitely.
Twelve US personnel who were stationed at Balad were the first to be evacuated. Several hundred American contractors are still waiting to leave.
They have been training Iraqi forces to use fighter jets and surveillance drones.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10892299/Iraq-crisis-al-Qaeda-militants-push-towards-Baghdad-live.html
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joint_Base_Balad0 -
While Iraq goes up in flames -
Alec Luhn @ASLuhn
Just saw through 3 tanks flying Russian flag outside #Donetsk, heading toward #Slavyansk. Same T-72s reported by the Russian border today?
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Marc Waddington @WaddingtonPost
A Liverpool Labour councillor who was at Hillsborough tells me he is considering resigning from party over Miliband holding copy of the Sun
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This is odd from Salmond, of course they were going to release the email no story if they didn't/couldn't
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/10896396/Alex-Salmond-attacks-Telegraph-for-publishing-smear-email.html0 -
How things change! - only three years ago Ed was demanding Rupert Murdoch's empire must be dismantled, now he's promoting it. - Oh well, 30 pieces of silver for Labour's coffers?Tykejohnno said:
Marc Waddington @WaddingtonPost
A Liverpool Labour councillor who was at Hillsborough tells me he is considering resigning from party over Miliband holding copy of the Sun0 -
Good old Harry; you put those world cup fanatics to shame. Local by-elections carry on regardless.
Bets that ISIS don't take Bagdad tomorrow.
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If Al Maliki doesn't want the Gadaffi treatment he might need to be getting those Iranians into Baghdad sharpish.DavidL said:
It's sounding like Saigon all over again. Remarkable.RodCrosby said:Latest
20.05 The Associated Press reports that a small group of US military personnel and several hundred contractors, who were training the Iraqi military to use drones and fighter jets, are being evacuated from an Iraqi airbase.
QuoteOfficials say three planeloads of Americans are being evacuated from a major Iraqi air base in Sunni territory north of Baghdad to escape potential threats from a fast-moving insurgency.
A current US official and a former senior Obama administration official say that means the American training mission at the air field in Balad has been grounded indefinitely.
Twelve US personnel who were stationed at Balad were the first to be evacuated. Several hundred American contractors are still waiting to leave.
They have been training Iraqi forces to use fighter jets and surveillance drones.
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worldnews/middleeast/iraq/10892299/Iraq-crisis-al-Qaeda-militants-push-towards-Baghdad-live.html
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Off-topic:
And sorry to be so. That said we appear to have a new troll (and not the Tromso type)!
So, in their honour, I would like to dedicate a song to them.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=3nqEwJGL3pI
Happy posting Speedy! 0 -
Reuters: actor Harrison Ford has been injured on the Pinewood Studios set of 'Star Wars: Episode VII' in London and was taken to hospital0
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@electionista: #Italy - Beppe Grillo’s M5S votes to join EFD with UKIP - 29,584 people voted, result:
EFD 78.1%
NI 11.9%
ECR 10%
http://t.co/HGCll87BNG0 -
How can you get injured on a set that's basically a green screen?Tykejohnno said:Reuters: actor Harrison Ford has been injured on the Pinewood Studios set of 'Star Wars: Episode VII' in London and was taken to hospital
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I am truly astonished that 29,584 people had a view on this. I wouldn't have thought you would find such a level of interest in the whole of the EU.ToryJim said:@electionista: #Italy - Beppe Grillo’s M5S votes to join EFD with UKIP - 29,584 people voted, result:
EFD 78.1%
NI 11.9%
ECR 10%
http://t.co/HGCll87BNG
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Unless it was like Dunny-on-the-Wold and one person had a view 29,584 timesDavidL said:
I am truly astonished that 29,584 people had a view on this. I wouldn't have thought you would find such a level of interest in the whole of the EU.ToryJim said:@electionista: #Italy - Beppe Grillo’s M5S votes to join EFD with UKIP - 29,584 people voted, result:
EFD 78.1%
NI 11.9%
ECR 10%
http://t.co/HGCll87BNG 0 -
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/harrison-ford-crushed-star-wars-3682600ToryJim said:
How can you get injured on a set that's basically a green screen?Tykejohnno said:Reuters: actor Harrison Ford has been injured on the Pinewood Studios set of 'Star Wars: Episode VII' in London and was taken to hospital
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Hmm, not goodTykejohnno said:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/harrison-ford-crushed-star-wars-3682600ToryJim said:
How can you get injured on a set that's basically a green screen?Tykejohnno said:Reuters: actor Harrison Ford has been injured on the Pinewood Studios set of 'Star Wars: Episode VII' in London and was taken to hospital
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Farage and UKIP face fines and Farage a possible prison sentence
Daily Telegraph article on Electoral Commission investigation into allegations that UKIP failed to declare more than £200,000 of donations to the party and that allowances paid by the EP were misappropriated.
A spokesman for the Electoral Commission said: “The donations in kind have been reported late. The party election finance team is now reviewing all of the information.
“Once that process is complete we will decide whether any action needs to be taken.
Full article: http://bit.ly/1nz7Uf9
Kipper watchers should take careful note that Stuart Wheeler resigned as Treasurer of the Party with effect from July 1. Wheeler's three year stint as Treasurer did not co-incide with the period under investigation by the Electoral Commission and it is not known whether his resignation is connected to the allegations.
See: http://bit.ly/1xPKfg10 -
But then we get this -ToryJim said:
Hmm, not goodTykejohnno said:
http://www.mirror.co.uk/3am/celebrity-news/harrison-ford-crushed-star-wars-3682600ToryJim said:
How can you get injured on a set that's basically a green screen?Tykejohnno said:Reuters: actor Harrison Ford has been injured on the Pinewood Studios set of 'Star Wars: Episode VII' in London and was taken to hospital
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/tvshowbiz/article-2656549/Harrison-Ford-injures-ankle-set-Star-Wars.html
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lawfare was always next on the cards0
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Evening all, Sorry that I have not been able to follow the thread this evening.
A number of my FB friends have been arguing to boycott Uber because of their tax planning.
I have tried pointing out that pretty well every big company does the same thing and all entirely legally.
Has anyone got a good link that points to all the stuff that Facebook, Apple and Amazon et al do to avoid tax?0 -
Farage doesn't face a jail sentence @AveryLP, so stop bigging it up. He may have to pay a fine and that depends how the law is interpreted.AveryLP said:Farage and UKIP face fines and Farage a possible prison sentence
Daily Telegraph article on Electoral Commission investigation into allegations that UKIP failed to declare more than £200,000 of donations to the party and that allowances paid by the EP were misappropriated.
A spokesman for the Electoral Commission said: “The donations in kind have been reported late. The party election finance team is now reviewing all of the information.
“Once that process is complete we will decide whether any action needs to be taken.
Full article: http://bit.ly/1nz7Uf9
Kipper watchers should take careful note that Stuart Wheeler resigned as Treasurer of the Party with effect from July 1. Wheeler's three year stint as Treasurer did not co-incide with the period under investigation by the Electoral Commission and it is not known whether his resignation is connected to the allegations.
See: http://bit.ly/1xPKfg1
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I see Avery also failed to mention this bit:MikeK said:
Farage doesn't face a jail sentence @AveryLP, so stop bigging it up. He may have to pay a fine and that depends how the law is interpreted.AveryLP said:Farage and UKIP face fines and Farage a possible prison sentence
Daily Telegraph article on Electoral Commission investigation into allegations that UKIP failed to declare more than £200,000 of donations to the party and that allowances paid by the EP were misappropriated.
A spokesman for the Electoral Commission said: “The donations in kind have been reported late. The party election finance team is now reviewing all of the information.
“Once that process is complete we will decide whether any action needs to be taken.
Full article: http://bit.ly/1nz7Uf9
Kipper watchers should take careful note that Stuart Wheeler resigned as Treasurer of the Party with effect from July 1. Wheeler's three year stint as Treasurer did not co-incide with the period under investigation by the Electoral Commission and it is not known whether his resignation is connected to the allegations.
See: http://bit.ly/1xPKfg1
"“Every year since 2001, Mr Farage has declared in his European Parliament Register of Interests the use of a rent-free office from J Longhurst Ltd. The premises has been used as his MEP office so the European Parliamentary register was the logical place for it to be declared."0 -
BBC Breaking News ✔ @BBCBreaking
Interest rate rise could happen this year, Bank of England governor Mark Carney signals http://bbc.in/1xPOyYx & follow @bbckamal
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Not really. Grillo's party has a huge following in Italy and the membership were asked to choose. The English version of the consultation is hereDavidL said:
I am truly astonished that 29,584 people had a view on this. I wouldn't have thought you would find such a level of interest in the whole of the EU.ToryJim said:@electionista: #Italy - Beppe Grillo’s M5S votes to join EFD with UKIP - 29,584 people voted, result:
EFD 78.1%
NI 11.9%
ECR 10%
http://t.co/HGCll87BNG
http://www.beppegrillo.it/en/
The signed up membership for M5S is apparently around 250,000 so you are only looking at around 12% having voted.0 -
As the Telegraph article states:MikeK said:
Farage doesn't face a jail sentence @AveryLP, so stop bigging it up. He may have to pay a fine and that depends how the law is interpreted.AveryLP said:Farage and UKIP face fines and Farage a possible prison sentence
Daily Telegraph article on Electoral Commission investigation into allegations that UKIP failed to declare more than £200,000 of donations to the party and that allowances paid by the EP were misappropriated.
A spokesman for the Electoral Commission said: “The donations in kind have been reported late. The party election finance team is now reviewing all of the information.
“Once that process is complete we will decide whether any action needs to be taken.
Full article: http://bit.ly/1nz7Uf9
Kipper watchers should take careful note that Stuart Wheeler resigned as Treasurer of the Party with effect from July 1. Wheeler's three year stint as Treasurer did not co-incide with the period under investigation by the Electoral Commission and it is not known whether his resignation is connected to the allegations.
See: http://bit.ly/1xPKfg1
According to Electoral Commission rules, Mr Farage could theoretically face a 12-month jail sentence if he is found to have committed an offence, though this is thought unlikely.
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Dear Blair,
Thanks for everything.
Love
Iraq
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/open-letter-tony-blair-people-36805490 -
I did link to it though and was very self-disciplined in not linking to the more detailed allegations of how Farage and UKIP may have misspent EP allowance money which have been widely published on the internet.Richard_Tyndall said:
I see Avery also failed to mention this bit:MikeK said:
Farage doesn't face a jail sentence @AveryLP, so stop bigging it up. He may have to pay a fine and that depends how the law is interpreted.AveryLP said:Farage and UKIP face fines and Farage a possible prison sentence
Daily Telegraph article on Electoral Commission investigation into allegations that UKIP failed to declare more than £200,000 of donations to the party and that allowances paid by the EP were misappropriated.
A spokesman for the Electoral Commission said: “The donations in kind have been reported late. The party election finance team is now reviewing all of the information.
“Once that process is complete we will decide whether any action needs to be taken.
Full article: http://bit.ly/1nz7Uf9
Kipper watchers should take careful note that Stuart Wheeler resigned as Treasurer of the Party with effect from July 1. Wheeler's three year stint as Treasurer did not co-incide with the period under investigation by the Electoral Commission and it is not known whether his resignation is connected to the allegations.
See: http://bit.ly/1xPKfg1
"“Every year since 2001, Mr Farage has declared in his European Parliament Register of Interests the use of a rent-free office from J Longhurst Ltd. The premises has been used as his MEP office so the European Parliamentary register was the logical place for it to be declared."
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0
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Oh dear an own goal. Oops.0
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POBWAOG.0
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Buffs Nails
I did tip Croatia at 14/10 -
If Brazil loses it could be the trigger for some nasty street action later tonight.0
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Do I cash out now or not?0
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Tough one.TheScreamingEagles said:Do I cash out now or not?
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The same Farage/UKIP Electoral Commission investigation story, this time from our national broadcaster, the revered BBC:
http://bbc.in/1ljvdcZ
Kippers will be relieved to know that Auntie hasn't mentioned the possibility of a jail sentence.0 -
Andy
There will be no nasty street action today. No climate for this here at this moment.0 -
0
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Mr. Eagles, depends on the odds. I'd be tempted at low single figures.0
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Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Me_.0
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How about our middle east peace envoy goes in person to sort out the mess?
Seems fair to me...MonikerDiCanio said:Dear Blair,
Thanks for everything.
Love
Iraq
http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/open-letter-tony-blair-people-36805490 -
I can cash out at £30 quid now, or £140 quid later if Croatia do win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, depends on the odds. I'd be tempted at low single figures.
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Is it me or are Brazil not as pretty as usual?0
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Mr. Eagles, personally, I'd cash out now.
Edited extra bit: worth mentioning I'm generally a cautious better (bettor?), though.0 -
Welcome back, MD!Morris_Dancer said:Welcome to pb.com, Mr. Me_.
As stjohn posted on Me_'s last short visit:
"Hello, Me_
Is it you_?"
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Well, it'll be a much better game to watch if Brazil are a goal down for most of the time.0
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Mr. LP, I've only been gone a few hours!
Still, I suppose even a few hours without the site's foremost differential front end grip enthusiast must seem a terribly long time.
Got an early bet in mind for Austria. Odds nowhere near good enough, yet.0 -
Ooops Brazil not having a good start... Like TSE ive got a bet on Croatia but ive already cashed out now!0
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Any team with Luiz at centre half is going to vulnerable . That is why Mourinho has moved him on.0
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Brazil seem to be slowly waking up a bit.0
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Its like the weakest link, play it safe or go for more?TheScreamingEagles said:
I can cash out at £30 quid now, or £140 quid later if Croatia do win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, depends on the odds. I'd be tempted at low single figures.
Look if I were in the Brazillian mafia or something I would have bet on Croatia for the money.
But will they keep Croatia winning, or put a goal in the last minute after they cashed in?
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Getting a little tasty!0
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Did we need goalline technology for that?0
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Brazil certainly look likely to get one back,Slackbladder said:Getting a little tasty!
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Billy Bragg ✔ @billybragg
Could the embarrassing own goal scored by #Brazil be a tribute to Ed Miliband's Sun-loving photo-shoot?
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Mr. LP, oh, I see. At least, I think I do.0
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#QTWAINTykejohnno said:
Billy Bragg ✔ @billybragg
Could the embarrassing own goal scored by #Brazil be a tribute to Ed Miliband's Sun-loving photo-shoot?0 -
This is getting a little ill tempered0
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If Ed doesnt read the papers, whats he doing with the Sun?0
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Now that's more like it.0
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Glad I cashed out.0
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YES YES YES!!!!
My bet is alive, ITS ALIVE.0 -
People are simply getting crazy here.0
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Cheats equalise. - Neymar should have been sent off.0
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Page 3?Slackbladder said:If Ed doesnt read the papers, whats he doing with the Sun?
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Well thank f*** i cashed out0
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Congrats on the profits, Mr. Slackbladder, Mr. Eagles.
One of the nicest things about betting is when you're ahead whatever happens.0 -
ToryJim said:
Ed's reply to that is -ToryJim said:
http://order-order.com/2014/06/12/ed-spilliband/
;-)0 -
So staying in = backing Croatia at 4.66/1, yes? How does that compare with the odds you could get from a bookie right now?TheScreamingEagles said:
I can cash out at £30 quid now, or £140 quid later if Croatia do win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, depends on the odds. I'd be tempted at low single figures.
Edited: question now academic, I see.
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Im always rather cautious... If i can get out ahead, i try to make sure i do.Morris_Dancer said:Congrats on the profits, Mr. Slackbladder, Mr. Eagles.
One of the nicest things about betting is when you're ahead whatever happens.0 -
This brazil team isnt a patch on recent ones though0
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As I said days ago Jordan is nervous about the Syrian rebels and ISIS:
http://www.buzzfeed.com/sheerafrenkel/jordan-worries-that-after-iraq-and-syria-it-will-be-the-next
“They keep wanting to talk about toys and we want to talk about real threats,” Hamid Hamzawy, a Jordanian tank commander, said as he left the meeting. “The Americans have no idea what to do, and they don’t want to come up with a plan. They are telling us to wait and be patient, but we all know where that will get us.”0 -
You can back them at 11/1Ishmael_X said:
So staying in = backing Croatia at 4.66/1, yes? How does that compare with the odds you could get from a bookie right now?TheScreamingEagles said:
I can cash out at £30 quid now, or £140 quid later if Croatia do win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, depends on the odds. I'd be tempted at low single figures.
Edited: question now academic, I see.0 -
Definitely not, but as long as their better than the other 31 in the competitionSlackbladder said:This brazil team isnt a patch on recent ones though
Edit -they're (oops)0 -
A jail sentence so soon after the media's gang attack at the euros would probably be worth an extra 3%.AveryLP said:The same Farage/UKIP Electoral Commission investigation story, this time from our national broadcaster, the revered BBC:
http://bbc.in/1ljvdcZ
Kippers will be relieved to know that Auntie hasn't mentioned the possibility of a jail sentence.
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I have decided to lay Brazil for the world cup.0
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Hmm, wise on the evidence so far but they could improveTheScreamingEagles said:I have decided to lay Brazil for the world cup.
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Mr. Slackbladder, I tend to prefer hedging bets with F1, but often this season I've either bet with Ladbrokes or only at short odds (where hedging doesn't really make sense), so there's little divergence between my hedged and bet-and-forget columns so far.
Of course, I backed Hamilton recently at 1.9 to offset the longer odds bet I made pre-season on Rosberg.0 -
oil price going up will be good for the russkis0
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So if you fancy their chances the rational move would be to cash out and then stick a tenner on at 11/1, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
You can back them at 11/1Ishmael_X said:
So staying in = backing Croatia at 4.66/1, yes? How does that compare with the odds you could get from a bookie right now?TheScreamingEagles said:
I can cash out at £30 quid now, or £140 quid later if Croatia do win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, depends on the odds. I'd be tempted at low single figures.
Edited: question now academic, I see.
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It did wonders for Gerry Adams.MrJones said:
A jail sentence so soon after the media's gang attack at the euros would probably be worth an extra 3%.AveryLP said:The same Farage/UKIP Electoral Commission investigation story, this time from our national broadcaster, the revered BBC:
http://bbc.in/1ljvdcZ
Kippers will be relieved to know that Auntie hasn't mentioned the possibility of a jail sentence.0 -
Harrison Ford has been injured on the set of Star Wars VII.
That might delay the film.0 -
Yeah, sometimes in play markets take all the fun out of watching the eventIshmael_X said:
So if you fancy their chances the rational move would be to cash out and then stick a tenner on at 11/1, surely?TheScreamingEagles said:
You can back them at 11/1Ishmael_X said:
So staying in = backing Croatia at 4.66/1, yes? How does that compare with the odds you could get from a bookie right now?TheScreamingEagles said:
I can cash out at £30 quid now, or £140 quid later if Croatia do win.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, depends on the odds. I'd be tempted at low single figures.
Edited: question now academic, I see.0 -
Main story in the Liverpool echo.
Liverpool Mayor Joe Anderson condemns Labour leader Ed Miliband for supporting The Sun newspaper
http://www.liverpoolecho.co.uk/news/liverpool-news/liverpool-mayor-joe-anderson-condemns-72616570 -
Mr. Eagles, I used to bet on tennis/F1 in-play. Now I don't. Always watch/listen to F1 on the TV and just check tennis for the numbers. Find I enjoy F1 much more, and take more in.0
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Now the only thing I need is Brazil to win at full time.0
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The worst thing is, when you're own team is involved.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, I used to bet on tennis/F1 in-play. Now I don't. Always watch/listen to F1 on the TV and just check tennis for the numbers. Find I enjoy F1 much more, and take more in.
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Oh Crude Oil is close to a 6 year high.0
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Mr. Eagles, another F1 advantage. I deliberately avoided supporting any team or driver (and try not to be against anyone, though Maldonado makes that hard) when I started betting. Hasn't affected my enjoyment of things a jot.0
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This is a definite WTF story
http://news.sky.com/story/775948/granny-72-having-a-baby-with-her-grandson0 -
Front page on the Sun and Mirror tommorow I predict.ToryJim said:This is a definite WTF story
http://news.sky.com/story/775948/granny-72-having-a-baby-with-her-grandson0 -
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 16s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead increases to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%0 -
Sun Politics @Sun_Politics
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead increases to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%
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HmmTheScreamingEagles said:Sun Politics @Sun_Politics · 16s
YouGov/Sun poll tonight - Labour lead increases to six points: CON 32%, LAB 38%, LD 8%, UKIP 12%0
