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On the Smarkets exchange it’s a 14% chance that Trump will still be in the White House after January

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  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2020
    Chris said:

    That's your response when someone posts the result of an opinion poll?

    Looking forward to "So you're a paedophile" when someone posts a news item about paedophilia and "So you're a Nazi" when someone mentions the war.
    No, it's the response when an opinion poll says something he doesn't like.

    My personal favourite is when he is allowed to provide meaning to his vote for BXP - which was voting for Farage and his party and he knows it - but when others provide meaning they're not allowed.

    He's the most classic of hypocrites.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085
    Hannan makes Toby Young look clever
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    While we can't be sure that the new strain originated in the UK, the obvious spread out from the Isle of Sheppy or thereabouts must be fairly strong evidence that it did. Either that or it was brought into the UK by one of the very early cases.

    If it had become established elsewhere and then spread to the UK, you'd expect to see a much homogeneous distribution of cases, wouldn't you?
    That graph is weird no?

    If its the teenage mutant Ninja turtle strain we think it is, it should have spread fast everywhere it seeds (a bit like a weed?)

    But....it hasn't?

    It seeded in Scotland and South Wales but no turbo growth?
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited December 2020

    Can someone who understands government speak pls explain what "Seven–day rolling rate of new cases" means on the covid maps?

    The number of cases per day taken as an average over the seven days?

    Correct. It's similar to Malmesbury's red chart but over a shorter period I think with a full total.

    Edit: Total cases is similar to the red chart, rolling rate is similar to the green chart?
  • I don't live in South Wales.

    I live in the North in an ancient house with beams under which the bards sleep. And the sheep. 😁

    My guess -- from reports of relatives in the South -- is that there has been poor compliance, combined with poor messaging from Drakeford.

    But MexicanPete is better placed to say.

    You don't have to lose control of an exponential by much ... and you are in the shit. If headlines like "Wales has worst COVID stats in the world" stick, then Drakeford is in the shit.
    I would like your post but not sure like is appropriate with anything to do with Drakeford
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    gealbhan said:

    I think you hit the nail on the head of what is wrong. Thrown out of office, but the philosophy still in power? And that was good enough for you? Why?

    We don’t need politicians like Blair, brown, all new labour, only interested in going up the greasy poll. People should go into politics to stand on values and win on values. Otherwise it will never change.

    Capitalism needs to be reset now because of Blair and Brown, not in spite of them.
    No, he should have been more radical. Totally. But I'm not a Blair hater. He won that 97 landslide and it was a great and cleansing political event. Plus after so long with the Cons in, the power of Murdoch and the press, the consensus that Labour could not be trusted with the wallet, there was a paranoia amongst NL of not scaring middle England and getting kicked out again, hence "sticking to Tory spending plans", no tax rises, all of that nonsense, which put them in a self-sealed box. I have sympathy for that even though I wish it had been otherwise.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Yorkcity said:

    He was not given 3 large majorities he earned them.

    It doesn't matter whether he was "given" them or "earned" them.

    What matter is what he did with them, what survived in the long term. And that is minuscule.

    Blair floated through our politics like a turd on the river.
  • Daniel Hannan has been wrong on almost everything that he has voiced an opinion on, from climate change to covid and brexit. He's a talker, not a thinker.
    This piece always bears re-reading, it's hilarious.

    https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2020

    This post explains, so, so much.
    Why? Something shock you that a Tory wants Tories in Parliament?

    Let socialists advocate for socialists in Parliament. Don't expect us to do your job for you.

    Do I expect YOU to advocate for Tories?
  • just got an email from tesco:

    "As we have good stock levels, please shop as you normally would so that everyone is able to get what they need.

    We continue to have good availability on the small number of fresh products, such as lettuce, cauliflower and citrus fruit, that we import from France at this time of year."
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,712
    edited December 2020

    That graph is weird no?

    If its the teenage mutant Ninja turtle strain we think it is, it should have spread fast everywhere it seeds (a bit like a weed?)

    But....it hasn't?

    It seeded in Scotland and South Wales but no turbo growth?
    You would indeed expect to spread fast everywhere it seeds. That's my point. The fact that it hasn't yet spread everywhere indicates that it originated in north-west Kent (rather than being seeded simultaneously in different places) and had been spreading out from there. It spreads fast, but not instantaneously!
  • No, it's the response when an opinion poll says something he doesn't like.

    My personal favourite is when he is allowed to provide meaning to his vote for BXP - which was voting for Farage and his party and he knows it - but when others provide meaning they're not allowed.

    He's the most classic of hypocrites.
    Liar.

    Name one time I have ever, ever denied others the right to provide meaning for their votes? Once ever, or retract that statement please.

    I'm a liberal and a democrat, I believe in free speech, freedom of assembly and free voting. Anyone can vote however they want, for whatever reason they want and whatever justification they want. I have never advocated denying that right to anyone. I have opposed No Platforming and denying others the right to speak all my life.
  • FishingFishing Posts: 5,404

    It doesn't matter whether he was "given" them or "earned" them.

    What matter is what he did with them, what survived in the long term. And that is minuscule.

    Blair floated through our politics like a turd on the river.
    Like Obama and US politics.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085

    just got an email from tesco:

    "As we have good stock levels, please shop as you normally would so that everyone is able to get what they need.

    We continue to have good availability on the small number of fresh products, such as lettuce, cauliflower and citrus fruit, that we import from France at this time of year."

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1341056359593340931
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399

    He was probably 99.9% right for those that read Twitter. 99.9% right is pretty good for most politicians...

    :)
    Except he was posting on ConservativeHome which probably tends towards an older audience.
  • While we can't be sure that the new strain originated in the UK, the obvious spread out from the Isle of Sheppy or thereabouts must be fairly strong evidence that it did. Either that or it was brought into the UK by one of the very early cases.

    If it had become established elsewhere and then spread to the UK, you'd expect to see a much homogeneous distribution of cases, wouldn't you?
    I don't think we can be sure it originated here at all. Only yesterday scientists were claiming the N501Y mutation was detected in Brazil in April, in Australia between June and July, and in the US in July.

    It seems the main reason we are detecting it here as we are one of the few countries with the ability to do so.
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,023
    Off topic: Wifey's film on Ferrari is on Sky doocumentary's now....
  • Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/robpowellnews/status/1341056359593340931
    Surely they could have substituted something: another size turkey, another bird or even another cut of meat. Anything would be better than nothing at all. (I'd draw the line at a "cauliflower steak" though, even speaking as a vegetarian.)
  • Scott_xP said:

    Hannan makes Toby Young look clever

    And yet he walked all over you Eurofanatics. That must really grate. :)
  • The army now driving ambulances in Wales

  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Fishing said:

    Like Obama and US politics.
    I personally was not a fan of Obama, but you can hardly say that nothing of his survived long term, even if you limit items in that bag to just the ACA.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818

    Off topic: Wifey's film on Ferrari is on Sky doocumentary's now....

    with all due respect to your wife, I'm not sure Nick Ferrari merits an entire documentary programme, to be honest
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    It doesn't matter whether he was "given" them or "earned" them.

    What matter is what he did with them, what survived in the long term. And that is minuscule.

    Blair floated through our politics like a turd on the river.
    Minuscule to you maybe but for millions earning by right the minimum wage not so much.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085

    And yet he walked all over you Eurofanatics.

    LOL

    He hitched himself to Nigel Fucking Farage until the day after the vote, when he claimed we was never part of that same campaign.
  • And yet he walked all over you Eurofanatics. That must really grate. :)
    Richard you know I have a lot of time for you but do you not think in the current crisis with COVID it's irresponsible to reward somebody who spread fake news which could have put a lot of people in danger?

    I am sure you would be the first - and you would be right - to call it out if it was coming from the other side.

    For example, I am sure we would both agree that it's wrong for somebody to elected to the HoL who was involved in the Labour anti-Semitism crisis, e.g. Karie Murphy who a lot (in the Labour Party anyway) would argue ran the Labour Party well and yet I would think her promotion to the HoL was totally inappropriate and I am glad she was not?
  • And yet he walked all over you Eurofanatics. That must really grate. :)
    What grates is the fact that so many people are gullible enough to believe the crap he comes out with.
  • Still not good:


  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304

    This piece always bears re-reading, it's hilarious.

    https://reaction.life/britain-looks-like-brexit/
    "Our song had not yet been sung".

    Tear in his eye, I picture, as he typed that closing line.

    But let's not be too sarky. Perhaps we'll start singing next year.

    All together now ...
  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 54,023
    edited December 2020

    I don't live in South Wales.

    I live in the North in an ancient house with beams under which the bards sleep. And the sheep. 😁

    My guess -- from reports of relatives in the South -- is that there has been poor compliance, combined with poor messaging from Drakeford.

    But MexicanPete is better placed to say.

    You don't have to lose control of an exponential by much ... and you are in the shit. If headlines like "Wales has worst COVID stats in the world" stick, then Drakeford is in the shit.
    "I live in the North in an ancient house with beams under which the bards sleep."

    Is that a temporary housing for the Eisteddfod winners or something?
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2020
    If Tier 4 is not working in London it is time to accept the tiers have comprehensively failed and we need an England (preferably UK-wide with the other nations hopefully agreeing) wide lockdown until a vaccine is properly rolled out.
  • Can someone who understands government speak pls explain what "Seven–day rolling rate of new cases" means on the covid maps?

    The number of cases per day taken as an average over the seven days?

    Not quite.. the rate is the number of cases detected in a seven-day period per 100k of population in that town/county/region/nation.

    The figure shifts forward by a day each day (so six days' data the same, one lost at the start, one added at the end). And although the govt has raw data up to the previous day, it calculates these rates upto about 6 days previously, as the more recent ones are subject to revision as more tests come back. I think PA and the BBC do their own calculations up to a day or two later.

    So Sheppey East which Peston is tweeting about has had 246 positive tests in the week up to Dec 16, in a population of around 7k.. which equates to an (eyewatering) rate of 2842/100k or about ten times the UK average.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    My personal opinion, watching the latest gyrations on Brexit negotiations, is that Boris is about to fold.

    But. If he does not. If we end up with a No Deal Brexit. What will the EU's access to British fishing grounds look like then? What will we offer them regardless of a Brexit deal? Has anyone addressed this?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,584

    I don't live in South Wales.

    I live in the North in an ancient house with beams under which the bards sleep. And the sheep. 😁

    My guess -- from reports of relatives in the South -- is that there has been poor compliance, combined with poor messaging from Drakeford.

    But MexicanPete is better placed to say.

    You don't have to lose control of an exponential by much ... and you are in the shit. If headlines like "Wales has worst COVID stats in the world" stick, then Drakeford is in the shit.
    Compliance has been pathetic here in Wales, but my experience over the border is that was no better. I suspect England are a few days to a week behind us.

    P.S. I disagree with your Blair analysis. Iraq a disaster, but many positives to take out of Blair's decade.
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,712
    edited December 2020

    Still not good:


    Those are yesterday's figures.

    Reported today: 36,804 cases, 691 deaths, 1,875 admissions, 423,675 tests.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Scott_xP said:

    LOL

    He hitched himself to Nigel Fucking Farage until the day after the vote, when he claimed we was never part of that same campaign.
    Which is even worse. You got beat by Nige Farage
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 126,289

    Bingo. Devolution is asymmetric because the UK is asymmetric: its largest constituent part is 10x larger than its second largest. England will almost certainly be governed by people it voted for, Scotland has for most of the last few decades faced a UK government it didn't vote for, ditto Wales. Symmetric devolution requires power to be devolved to English regions in the same was as for Scotland, since an English parliament will generally be just an expensive replication of Westminster. But English regions don't seem to want that kind of devolution (a mystery to me given how poorly Westminster has delivered for them, but I'm not English). Hence asymmetric devolution. The alternative is Scottish independence, which you would send in the tanks to prevent.
    Personally I would prefer an English Parliament but would accept regional assemblies within England.

    Either way we must finally resolve the West Lothian question
  • Leon said:

    Which is even worse. You got beat by Nige Farage
    You won, get over it!
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,239
    kinabalu said:

    "Our song had not yet been sung".

    Tear in his eye, I picture, as he typed that closing line.

    But let's not be too sarky. Perhaps we'll start singing next year.

    All together now ...
    Is that a reference to the potential Xmas No.1 ?
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    edited December 2020

    Can someone who understands government speak pls explain what "Seven–day rolling rate of new cases" means on the covid maps?

    The number of cases per day taken as an average over the seven days?

    Yes. You need to take a 7-day average as testing numbers come in as there’s considerable intra-week variation. It’s like needing seasonal adjustment when looking at house-price indices.

    Daniel Hannan isn't an inconsequential nobody, he has been a leading thinker and light within the party on what has been one of the most transformational policies in the last half a century.
    Co-incidentally he’s been wrong about almost every Brexit prediction he’s ever made.

    What you think that says about Brexit is up to you ;)
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    If New Formula Raging Bull COVID-19 is as bad as feared, it will surely be everywhere in a few weeks.

    Brace.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Yorkcity said:

    Minuscule to you maybe but for millions earning by right the minimum wage not so much.
    I still have a lot of difficulty containing my anger about Iraq.

    So, for reasons of cleanliness, let's just leave it with the pretty picture of you and Tony "standing shoulder to shoulder with a Republican USA president", as you put it.

    In fact, you even said you were glad. Urgghh.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,239
    I am surprised there hasn't been more discussion of the Solarwinds hack.
    The potential consequences are far reaching.

    https://slate.com/technology/2020/12/solarwinds-hack-malware-active-breach.html
  • Not quite.. the rate is the number of cases detected in a seven-day period per 100k of population in that town/county/region/nation.

    The figure shifts forward by a day each day (so six days' data the same, one lost at the start, one added at the end). And although the govt has raw data up to the previous day, it calculates these rates upto about 6 days previously, as the more recent ones are subject to revision as more tests come back. I think PA and the BBC do their own calculations up to a day or two later.

    So Sheppey East which Peston is tweeting about has had 246 positive tests in the week up to Dec 16, in a population of around 7k.. which equates to an (eyewatering) rate of 2842/100k or about ten times the UK average.
    Thanks muchly.

  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    Fishing said:

    Like Obama and US politics.
    Obama "floated through US politics like a turd on a river".

    An odd picture for the process of getting health care through a hung congress and inheriting an economy in the toilet and handing it over strong and balanced to bring to mind.

    Dread to think what your image of Donald J Trump is!
  • Those are yesterday's figures.

    Reported today: 36,804 cases, 691 deaths, 1,875 admissions, 423,675 tests.
    Apologies - the headline said updated but clearly the data had not been:


  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    edited December 2020
    eek said:

    Except he was posting on ConservativeHome which probably tends towards an older audience.
    The article was, yes. I was joking of course...

    Dan has always been an idealist rather than a pragmatist - which isn't always bad but is definitely not a good look when it comes to Covid.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,261
    edited December 2020
    HYUFD said:

    Personally I would prefer an English Parliament but would accept regional assemblies within England.

    Either way we must finally resolve the West Lothian question
    I agree with you (edit) although I would prefer regional English devolution as I think England is too large and diverse a country to be administered well from the centre. Something like the 9 administrative regions or a London/South/Midlands/North kind of breakdown maybe with something special for Cornwall.
  • Scott_xP said:
    It is more than likely internal EU borders will be closed to each other shortly
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Compliance has been pathetic here in Wales, but my experience over the border is that was no better. I suspect England are a few days to a week behind us.

    P.S. I disagree with your Blair analysis. Iraq a disaster, but many positives to take out of Blair's decade.
    I was young then. Nothing gets to you more than betrayal by your first true love.

    I expect betrayal by politicians now.
  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    kinabalu said:

    Obama "floated through US politics like a turd on a river".

    An odd picture for the process of getting health care through a hung congress and inheriting an economy in the toilet and handing it over strong and balanced to bring to mind.

    Dread to think what your image of Donald J Trump is!
    An entire river of shit.
  • PhilPhil Posts: 2,507
    TimT said:

    My personal opinion, watching the latest gyrations on Brexit negotiations, is that Boris is about to fold.

    But. If he does not. If we end up with a No Deal Brexit. What will the EU's access to British fishing grounds look like then? What will we offer them regardless of a Brexit deal? Has anyone addressed this?

    Well, we could go for "f.u: it’s back to the 1960s fishing grounds for everyone!" approach, but I have a nasty suspicion that might result in a blockade of French ports by the French fishing fleet.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Leon said:

    If New Formula Raging Bull COVID-19 is as bad as feared, it will surely be everywhere in a few weeks.

    Brace.


    Considering it was first detected in September, it should have been everywhere weeks ago?

    Pretty shabby performance for a raging bull strain?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 75,239
    Finally on topic...

    Senior Republican says party’s final election challenge will ‘go down like a shot dog’
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/22/trump-election-result-overturning-effort-republicans
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited December 2020

    Surely they could have substituted something: another size turkey, another bird or even another cut of meat. Anything would be better than nothing at all. (I'd draw the line at a "cauliflower steak" though, even speaking as a vegetarian.)
    We're currently self isolating until the end of Christmas Day as someone in our household tested positive last week and we ordered 2 duck breasts for dinner this week using Amazon's Morrisons same day delivery. They said it was out of stock and offered a 900g duck as a substitution for £6 which we accepted, but what actually came to the house was a 4kg goose worth £36 for which we paid £6. Substitutions can be great, but they can also be terrible.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    Scott_xP said:
    When the History of Brexit comes to be written, the odious, toad-like qualities of Guy Verhoefwpffww will be a colourful footnote. He manages to embody everything dislikeable about the EU into one human persona. Impressive.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,399
    edited December 2020


    Considering it was first detected in September, it should have been everywhere weeks ago?

    Pretty shabby performance for a raging bull strain?
    Not really do you know how expediential growth actually works - it's at the point the numbers of contagious people reaches the thousands and tens of thousands that it becomes a problem.

    And given the week or so incubation period it would take 3 or so months before it reached the level it's an issue and 3 months from September is about now.
  • TimT said:

    I personally was not a fan of Obama, but you can hardly say that nothing of his survived long term, even if you limit items in that bag to just the ACA.
    TimT said:

    I personally was not a fan of Obama, but you can hardly say that nothing of his survived long term, even if you limit items in that bag to just the ACA.
    TimT said:

    I personally was not a fan of Obama, but you can hardly say that nothing of his survived long term, even if you limit items in that bag to just the ACA.
    He handed over a healthy economy to his successor, didn't he?
  • Richard you know I have a lot of time for you but do you not think in the current crisis with COVID it's irresponsible to reward somebody who spread fake news which could have put a lot of people in danger?

    I am sure you would be the first - and you would be right - to call it out if it was coming from the other side.

    For example, I am sure we would both agree that it's wrong for somebody to elected to the HoL who was involved in the Labour anti-Semitism crisis, e.g. Karie Murphy who a lot (in the Labour Party anyway) would argue ran the Labour Party well and yet I would think her promotion to the HoL was totally inappropriate and I am glad she was not?
    My argument has nothing to do with whether or not he should be given a seat in the HoL. It is with the claim that, because you (the collective you rather than you personally) disagree with someone they are automatically thick. Particularly coming from someone like Scott who is so fundamentally bereft of original thought or intelligence.

    I have no interest in who gets sent to the Lords as I think the institution as it stands is completely unfit for purpose.
  • RH1992RH1992 Posts: 788
    edited December 2020

    It is more than likely internal EU borders will be closed to each other shortly
    As they were at the start of the pandemic. Another useless observation from Guy Verhofstadt above. He seems to think he's the only one who can explain Brexit to the British.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    TimT said:

    Indeed, whereas serious scientists suggest that it is precisely because of Britain's superior genomics capabilities that we have identified (and reported promptly, unlike most countries) this strain so early.

    So Britain is being criticized for being both competent and honest. Not exactly what global health needs in dealing with a pandemic.
    Why are we so worried about this particular strain, out of the thousands of mutations every virus goes through?

    What makes this strain so special?
  • Leon said:

    When the History of Brexit comes to be written, the odious, toad-like qualities of Guy Verhoefwpffww will be a colourful footnote. He manages to embody everything dislikeable about the EU into one human persona. Impressive.
    He certainly excels at winding up Brexiteers.
  • FlatlanderFlatlander Posts: 4,852
    edited December 2020
    Scott_xP said:
    If we hadn't seen these scenes many times when we were members then perhaps he might have had a point.

    Besides, what exactly has it to do with Brexit? Is this an admission that the French are playing games?

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,584

    I was young then. Nothing gets to you more than betrayal by your first true love.

    I expect betrayal by politicians now.
    Hell hath no fury than a Bard scorned!
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 21,436
    edited December 2020

    My argument has nothing to do with whether or not he should be given a seat in the HoL. It is with the claim that, because you (the collective you rather than you personally) disagree with someone they are automatically thick. Particularly coming from someone like Scott who is so fundamentally bereft of original thought or intelligence.

    I have no interest in who gets sent to the Lords as I think the institution as it stands is completely unfit for purpose.
    Ah, I see. I don't agree with the idea anyone who disagrees with you is thick (who am I to judge! :)) but in this particular case I do think Hannan has said some rather stupid things. Is he thick, hard to say. Careless perhaps.

    I think we might rather agree on the HoL, I would like it abolished.

    My apologies for any misunderstanding.
  • Scott_xP said:

    LOL

    He hitched himself to Nigel Fucking Farage until the day after the vote, when he claimed we was never part of that same campaign.
    He was part of the campaign that ran and won the referendum. The one you lost to. Dumbass.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914


    Considering it was first detected in September, it should have been everywhere weeks ago?

    Pretty shabby performance for a raging bull strain?
    I guess it’s the law of exponential growth. For a long time it looks like nothing is happening, and then, suddenly, BANG

    Question is: will this same pattern be seen abroad? Or has it already happened overseas and just wasn’t detected?

    It certainly appears as if Ireland has caught it. Their case loads are now rising by 10% a day
  • Do we have poster of the year soon?
  • YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I still have a lot of difficulty containing my anger about Iraq.

    So, for reasons of cleanliness, let's just leave it with the pretty picture of you and Tony "standing shoulder to shoulder with a Republican USA president", as you put it.

    In fact, you even said you were glad. Urgghh.
    I was after 9/11.
    Also agreed with ending the Iraq regime under Saddam Hussein.
    He who was gassing his own people , flouting UN sanctions.
    Blair had a choice after the new York attack to back the USA in Afghanistan or stand aside.
    The failure in Iraq was after the regime fell.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914

    He certainly excels at winding up Brexiteers.
    He also excels at making neutral or uncertain people become Leavers. I’ve witnessed it. So it’s a bit self-defeating, from his perspective
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 37,085

    He was part of the campaign that ran and won the referendum.

    And went on live TV to claim he wasn't
  • Andy_CookeAndy_Cooke Posts: 5,045

    Can someone who understands government speak pls explain what "Seven–day rolling rate of new cases" means on the covid maps?

    The number of cases per day taken as an average over the seven days?

    Add up the cases over the last 7 days.
    Divide by population to get a fraction.
    Express per 100,000.

    It’s “rolling”, because the furthest day back is dropped out and the new day added on.
    Divide by seven to get the average daily infections per 100,000 over the past seven days.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,584

    Do we have poster of the year soon?

    My vote goes to HYUFD for services to Trafalgar Group.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    eek said:

    Not really do you know how expediential growth actually works - it's at the point the numbers of contagious people reaches the thousands and tens of thousands that it becomes a problem.

    And given the week or so incubation period it would take 3 or so months before it reached the level it's an issue and 3 months from September is about now.
    For some of that time, of course, we had a one month lockdown. I guess that delayed the strain? put the brakes on? or something?

  • YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172



    He handed over a healthy economy to his successor, didn't he?

    I think Obama did all right. His initial glowing rhetoric for change was not fulfilled, but the Democrats did not control the House after 2010.

    The comparison with Blair is not apposite because Blair had virtually untrammelled power until at least the Iraq War.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,855
    The only good thing about probably having to lock down the entire country until a vaccine is rolled out is that it will truly, utterly, completely focus minds on the vaccine programme. If that is the only real exit strategy from this new variant then it can't drag on for 6, 9, 12 months etc., or at least not in a way that leaves the country utterly stuck in lockdown.

    Right now, there ought to be someone from the government on the TV every day, pretty much, talking about progress on the vaccination front, because it's the only game in town.
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 5,818
    Nigelb said:

    Finally on topic...

    Senior Republican says party’s final election challenge will ‘go down like a shot dog’
    https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/2020/dec/22/trump-election-result-overturning-effort-republicans

    Right now, America is wide open to the left. Wide open. The republicans are fatally divided.

    I once again suggest bitcoin.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,304
    Leon said:

    Which is even worse. You got beat by Nige Farage
    No shame in defeat at the hands of a very skillful and committed albeit rather unsavoury player of the game. Like losing to Don Revie's "Dirty Leeds" in the early 70s.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 10,267

    Do we have poster of the year soon?

    Do you fancy your chances, CHB?
  • Stocky said:

    Do you fancy your chances, CHB?
    God no.
  • gealbhangealbhan Posts: 2,362

    If we hadn't seen these scenes many times when we were members then perhaps he might have had a point.

    Besides, what exactly has it to do with Brexit? Is this an admission that the French are playing games?

    French aren’t playing games. They are winning them.

    Macron has ridden over the hill like cavalry to rescue us from no deal, by forcing Boris to cave on fishing, as Boris has been surrendering the last 24 hours taking fright at those lorry queues
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,714

    If we hadn't seen these scenes many times when we were members then perhaps he might have had a point.

    Besides, what exactly has it to do with Brexit? Is this an admission that the French are playing games?

    The fact that Manston airport, 18 miles away from Dover, has been turned into a huge lorry park for up to 4,000 lorries is everything to do with Brexit and nothing to do with Covid.
  • glwglw Posts: 10,254
    edited December 2020
    Leon said:

    He also excels at making neutral or uncertain people become Leavers. I’ve witnessed it. So it’s a bit self-defeating, from his perspective
    If there is ever any attempt to reverse Brexit you can be sure that the thoughts of Guy will feature heavily in the campaign against it.
  • Scott_xP said:

    And went on live TV to claim he wasn't
    Nope. He was part of Vote Leave - in fact he was one of its founders. Farage had nothing to do with it.
  • Nope. He was part of Vote Leave - in fact he was one of its founders. Farage had nothing to do with it.
    I don't recall him going on TV to say he wasn't part of Vote Leave.

    But he did say we would stay in the Single Market.

    I have always been of the view that Norway+ from 2016 onwards would have been satisfactory to well over 60% of the country.
  • NerysHughesNerysHughes Posts: 3,375

    Apologies - the headline said updated but clearly the data had not been:


    I am still amazed at the number of tests we do.
  • Do we have poster of the year soon?

    Although it was at the end of last year, I think an honourable mention should go to whoever tipped Sunak at 250/1. Legendary modesty applies though. 😜
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    edited December 2020

    Why are we so worried about this particular strain, out of the thousands of mutations every virus goes through?

    What makes this strain so special?
    As far as I have read, it has many more mutations than most strains - 17 genotypic changes of which 12 translate into phenotypic changes. The issues:

    - The key mutation, a deletion, seems to have evolved independently at least three times, including in both the London and South African new variants. This is highly indicative of a consequential mutation that is beneficial to the strain's propagation relative to other strains.
    - The deletion seems to improve marginally the virus' ability to resist the immune response to it, perhaps increasing an infected person's ability to infect others by several hours. Just this small increase in the infectivity window can contribute to greater transmissibility. The statistical correlation between this strain and new COVID transmissions, is AIUI, strongly suggestive that this strain is indeed significantly more transmissible rather than just out-competing other strains.
    - The number of new mutations in this strain, and the discontinuity between it and the rest of the evolutionary tree of COVID strains suggests that this strain accumulated mutations in one immune-compromised patient who suffered a prolonged infection (similar to how multi-drug resistant TB strains emerged from chronic TB patients in Russian prisons). This raises the prospect of future similar discontinuous mutations in other immune compromised patients if they suffer prolonged infections.

    What this strain does not appear to do is make the disease worse, or the vaccines less effective.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 30,584
    Scott_xP said:
    It doesn't count! Boris will be Boris, which makes it OK.
  • LeonLeon Posts: 58,914
    kinabalu said:

    No shame in defeat at the hands of a very skillful and committed albeit rather unsavoury player of the game. Like losing to Don Revie's "Dirty Leeds" in the early 70s.
    Yes. Farage is arguably the most skilful, certainly most influential, British politician of the last 20 years. But most ardent Remainers are too crazed to admit this.

    He destroyed David Cameron’s career, for a start, which is quite poignant when you recollect Dave’s remarks about UKIP: ‘closet racists, loonies’ etc
This discussion has been closed.