Liz Truss moves from a 100/1 shot for next PM to 33/1 in just two weeks – politicalbetting.com
Remember Liz Truss called for the abolition of the monarchy at her party conference in 1994. https://t.co/TSn1RJp4Hz
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1st0
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2nd, like Foucault0
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You can still get 100/1 with Bet Victor for next PM. Did you mean "Next Conservative Leader" Mike?0
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Smarter dresser than Johnson, I'll give her that.0
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It looks like Michael Flynn is staying in a Trump property.
https://twitter.com/jason_paladino/status/1339953522343899136?s=210 -
There's something wrong with this thread. I didn't get the first comment.-1
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Truss appears to have done well with the trade agreements. However, she needs to continue that momentum (or do well in a new role) for her odds and leadership prospects to improve further.0
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Perhaps after no deal she can take over the negotiations with the EU.Morris_Dancer said:Truss appears to have done well with the trade agreements. However, she needs to continue that momentum (or do well in a new role) for her odds and leadership prospects to improve further.
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Only because of the power structures on this site.Foxy said:2nd, like Foucault
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I've had £66 on Liz at 33/1 to be next Tory leader. In Liz we Truss!0
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20 plays 34 on Betfair for Truss next Con leader. So that was a good tip at 100.
My main politics betting angles atm are backing Johnson to NOT go early and laying Sunak for next PM.3 -
I've never quite seen liberalism in terms of individualism. Yes, the rights of the individual are important and it's not for the State or any other agency to undermine them but the individual isn't the be-all and end-all. The Victorian liberal entrepreneurs saw their responsibility beyond that of individual material acquisition but, and I presume this is a product of Methodism, of enriching the community.Philip_Thompson said:
You've hit the nail on the head about individualism v collectivism v family/nationalism.
I believe firmly in individualism/liberty first and foremost. Can you say the same about LDs? Clegg, Davey, Alexander maybe which is why they worked well in the Coalition.
But not the Cable, Farron, Swinson wing who are more collectivists.
As Stocky says I am curious what @stodge thinks of my characterisation of those three.
Cable served in the Coalition but never seemed comfortable or a good fit for it in my humble opinion. Of all the 2015 LD to Tory gains Twickenham was the one I was most pleased with. While if I lived in the seat of any of the first three I mentioned I could have voted for them.
Building schools and proper housing, teaching the work force to read and write was part about increasing productivity and profit but it was also paternalist and liberals, I'd argue, have always felt that social responsibility toward community - it's not called "community politics" for no reason.
I'd argue liberals see strong virtue in philanthropy and would be dead against the Guizot-style enrichessez-vous culture of some modern Conservatives.
The other side of that is liberals believe in devolving responsibility and authority as far down as possible so not just from Brussels to Westminster but from Westminster to Whitehall down, not to Regional Assemblies, but to the next lower tiers of Government. Putting that power closer to the people is what it's about, not either believing in the dead controlling hand of the State or the desire of Conservatives not to allow a scintilla of power to political opponents. Johnson is a centraliser and I simply don't support his personal acquisition of power.
As to individuals, Tim Farron comes from the activist non-conformist element in the Party. That religious aspect came to define and undermine him but it's what fires up many northern and western liberals (both Wales and Cornwall). Cable was a Social Democrat and ex-Labour so yes, he's probably more of a collectivist than Clegg, Davey or Alexander.
I'd also argue liberals and socialists are as much supporters of family and country as conservatives. The difference is neither party is defined by that whereas it defines conservatism.
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Burnham seems to have lost his Chief Constable as well as about 80k offences.0
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I thought it was because of the pendulum?rottenborough said:
Only because of the power structures on this site.Foxy said:2nd, like Foucault
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Well done to @Casino_Royale for getting ahead of the game with this.2
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I have a few quid on myself. There are a few more trade deals in the pipeline to be completed, so I'd expect the odds to narrow a bit more.stjohn said:I've had £66 on Liz at 33/1 to be next Tory leader. In Liz we Truss!
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Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak0 -
Yes she has rolled over our previous arrangements via the EU.Morris_Dancer said:Truss appears to have done well with the trade agreements. However, she needs to continue that momentum (or do well in a new role) for her odds and leadership prospects to improve further.
Its like celebrating your house burning down because you rescued the sofa.0 -
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"Both vaccines are supposed to be administered in two doses, a prime and a booster, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. However, in data provided to the F.D.A., there are clues for a tantalizing possibility: that even a single dose may provide significant levels of protection against the disease.
If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage0 -
Doesn't that rather depend on when (and why) Johnson departs?HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
If it's (a) in the near future, (b) because he's had enough, and (c) when the government is generally popular, then yes Sunak would be favourite.
But if it's (a) a long time in the future, or (b) because the government is unpopular, then one would think someone elsewould be favourite.1 -
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.1 -
Given the need for most women to be better than most men in many fields just to be seen as equal, and the competition being a mobile haystack in a suit, that's hardly surprising. But yes.OldKingCole said:Smarter dresser than Johnson, I'll give her that.
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His Hunt tip was also not terrible.MaxPB said:Well done to @Casino_Royale for getting ahead of the game with this.
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FYI, Sean Thomas's father has now also had the vaccine.rottenborough said:"Both vaccines are supposed to be administered in two doses, a prime and a booster, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. However, in data provided to the F.D.A., there are clues for a tantalizing possibility: that even a single dose may provide significant levels of protection against the disease.
If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage0 -
IANAE, but I read somewhere that the second dose is believed to be important for ensuring longer-lived immunity.rottenborough said:"Both vaccines are supposed to be administered in two doses, a prime and a booster, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. However, in data provided to the F.D.A., there are clues for a tantalizing possibility: that even a single dose may provide significant levels of protection against the disease.
If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
Whether it would be better to give a larger number of people one dose now and a booster dose in (say) a year, rather than half the number two doses now, would be an interesting area of research. Presumably, though, it would take time and more extensive trials to figure out exactly how the dosage and number of shots changes the effectiveness and the duration of the immunity. Since the Phase III trials have been done on a specific dosing pattern, I imagine it would be hard to get regulatory approval to change the pattern.0 -
The vaccine roll out is beginning to look like it's pretty well planned, and Hancock has to get kudos for that. My mother-in-law in Edgware (late 70s no comorbidites) has been told to expect to be vaccinated in late January.DavidL said:
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.0 -
A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.0 -
No rush. The fish are not going anywhere.rottenborough said:0 -
Yes, if that keeps going as well as it started, and that is a big if given the scale, he is going to get a lot of kudos.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine roll out is beginning to look like it's pretty well planned, and Hancock has to get kudos for that. My mother-in-law in Edgware (late 70s no comorbidites) has been told to expect to be vaccinated in late January.DavidL said:
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.0 -
Liz Truss. The choice for those too racist to support Priti Patel or Rishi Sunak.
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Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
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Every risk both sides think the other will buckle, we go to no deal, and polarisation and distrust increases from there.0
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Foucault. Like Newcastle have won since 1969.Foxy said:2nd, like Foucault
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She'd also have to change some of her stances on welfare-like issues, where the polls show the public are moving, in the wake of the pandemic, and on which, if I remember rightly, some of her rhetoric has been appalling lowest-common denominator rubbish.SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.0 -
No, you can`t say that Sandy. Support Truss means you`re racist. Good grief.SandyRentool said:Liz Truss. The choice for those too racist to support Priti Patel or Rishi Sunak.
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Because she's white?SandyRentool said:Liz Truss. The choice for those too racist to support Priti Patel or Rishi Sunak.
That's a ridiculous comment, Sandy.
I'm not tipping Truss myself as she's not a great candidate. But there are obvious reasons you'd back Truss over Patel (who was sacked by May for lying and whose behaviour leaves a lot to be desired). As for Sunak, he plainly is favourite at the moment - but he's been able to (& indeed been required to) play the Santa Claus role so far, to be honest, and that is going to change in reality - as he knows as well as anyone. It's not that difficult being reasonably popular when you're handing out half price pizzas, less so when you're ratcheting up VAT.0 -
On Truss' topic of diversity - Joe Pike has a thread on the excellent Michael Crick speech in March on the media's (very selective) diversity:
https://twitter.com/joepike/status/1235998322827169793?s=200 -
rottenborough said:
"They wouldn't be so daft as to"* meets "A matter of principle"
https://twitter.com/Mij_Europe/status/1339962567930818562?s=20
*Both sides0 -
FPT
Spot on. My personal view - which seems to be unpopular with both sides of the Brexit debate and is certainly a minority view - is that we should not be restricting those who want to come to this country if their intent is to become a citizen. I would not even say they need to adopt all of our traditions and customs and certainly not our religions even though I have a deep love for our customs and traditions (if not for religion in any form). There is room enough for different customs and traditions living side by side.Philip_Thompson said:
It depends upon how you define nationalism.kinabalu said:
Ha. Very good. But you know what I mean, I think. You're quite nationalistic.Philip_Thompson said:
Actually I have a small Nation State thing going on. It's why I support Sindy etc.kinabalu said:
You have a massive Nation State thing going on too. This is clear.Philip_Thompson said:
You've hit the nail on the head about individualism v collectivism v family/nationalism.Stocky said:
Yes to that. But you can`t get away from ideological underpinnings completely: that the unit of importance for liberalism is the individual/liberty, for collectivists it is groups/communities and for conservatives it is family unit/nation.stodge said:
The thing is, a lot of people seem happy to describe themselves as "liberal" and all seem to have different interpretations of what the term "liberal" actually means.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an LD, I'm a liberal. That's why I'm in the Conservative Party.
I've encountered liberals in the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties in my time and I suppose the real schism in 20th century politics was within liberalism. The emergence of social democracy in the 1930s and notions of the Welfare State, begun under Asquith and continued by Beveridge, have defined or re-defined liberalism and moved it away from the Gladstonian notion or, as it is sometimes termed, "classical liberalism".
Despite that, the superficial synergies between liberalism and social democracy masked some strong philosophical divergences . In the same way, Cameron's notion of "liberal conservatism", for all it appeared similar to Orange Book Liberalism, wasn't and the divergence after 2010 was rapid.
Looking at it now from the outside, it's not something over which to lose sleep. How political thought responds to growing environmental concerns, notions of AI and the place of the individual, not so much via-a-vis the State but in terms of the notion of individuality in the Information Age is the kind of areas of debate for liberals, conservatives and socialists alike.
Given that the LibDems are supposed to be representing the former, it is regrettable that people like PT (and Truss for that matter) are not LibDems.
I believe firmly in individualism/liberty first and foremost. Can you say the same about LDs? Clegg, Davey, Alexander maybe which is why they worked well in the Coalition.
But not the Cable, Farron, Swinson wing who are more collectivists.
Smaller is better. Closer to the people.
I think citizens of a nation should vote for that nations laws absolutely. But that's democracy not nationalism.
I also believe people should be able (within reason) to choose which nation they want to be their nation.
I despise things like birtherism. I like relatively open borders globally. Let people who want to come and become citizens of this nation.
They would however have to adopt some of the fundamental principles and ethical positions that underlie our democracy. Belief in democracy, adherence to the law which can only be changed by the traditional means of the democratic process, acceptance of equality of gender, race, sexuality and any other equalities passed by our Parliament. Our judicial and Governmental principles (although the practices are open to debate and reform). Also absolute acceptance of freedom of speech and association and the laws and customs that underpin all these things.
This is just a list off the top of my head and I am sure there would be others. But if people are willing to accept these things and wish to become British/English/Scottish etc then I would be welcoming them.
For concrete examples I would be encouraging EU nationals to stay and be welcome. I would also welcome any from Hong Kong who wish to come here.2 -
I don't religiously read your posts, Stocky, and nor do I read in detail the hundreds of posts during the course of a day on this site. So thanks for pointing it out, but maybe you could consider being less of a prick about it?Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
100/1 for next PM seems fair. There seems to be something of a mismatch between that price and next Tory leader price, though, as there seems to be a better than one in three chance of the next Tory leader being next PM. Whilst Starmer has a reasonable chance next time, he's got a big hill to climb, and I can't see Johnson standing in 2028/9-ish.1 -
I called my parents today for a chat and they were keen to get off the phone because they wanted it free for the vax call from the surgery. That's how keen they are to get it.rcs1000 said:
FYI, Sean Thomas's father has now also had the vaccine.rottenborough said:"Both vaccines are supposed to be administered in two doses, a prime and a booster, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. However, in data provided to the F.D.A., there are clues for a tantalizing possibility: that even a single dose may provide significant levels of protection against the disease.
If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
They do usually want to talk to me, honest.2 -
Hmmm, we shall see. *IF* that timescale turns out to be accurate then it suggests that we'll have Shady Pines, the NHS and the over-80s through their first shots at least, and be getting started on the third segment in the JCVI plan i.e. the 75-79 cohort, about seven weeks after the first jab was administered. The number of recipients so far has been comparatively modest which, *IF* mother-in-law does get her first shot according to that estimate, suggests that they think they'll be getting something like 1-1.5 million people done per week by that point. In which case, the fourth, larger segment - 70-74s and the shielders - ought all to have had their first inoculations by the end of February.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine roll out is beginning to look like it's pretty well planned, and Hancock has to get kudos for that. My mother-in-law in Edgware (late 70s no comorbidites) has been told to expect to be vaccinated in late January.DavidL said:
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.
Guesstimating is complicated slightly by the fact that all the second immunisations have to be fitted in at some point as well, but perhaps at that rate we might expect everybody down as far as the 60 year olds to have had both shots by some point in late May or early June? That plus the arrival of better weather would presumably allow the first substantial easing of what I'm sure will be many months of really Draconian restrictions to come after Christmas. I can see England being in lockdown until at least mid-February, and most of us stuck in Tier 3 for months after that.0 -
The teenage republicanism does probably rule her out of the Queen jobSirNorfolkPassmore said:
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.0 -
Oh God. I'm not saying if you support Truss you are a racist.
I'm saying that if you are a racist you might support Truss.
There is a Venn diagram for this.0 -
Andy Burnham has been speaking to the press.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-mayors-office-set-give-19485309
I wonder at what point a politician does take responsibility for the performance of a police force he oversees.
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We could perhaps set a deadline so that both sides work towards a deal........Morris_Dancer said:Every risk both sides think the other will buckle, we go to no deal, and polarisation and distrust increases from there.
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In other news:
1. We've got a new tap in the kitchen
2. That's me finished work for the year!
3. That's it
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That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).0 -
He’s following in Johnson’s fine example with the Met.dr_spyn said:Andy Burnham has been speaking to the press.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-mayors-office-set-give-19485309
I wonder at what point a politician does take responsibility for the performance of a police force he oversees.0 -
If I was running such an organisation I would think it would take 5-10 years to transform. If I was merely an influencer with input into the recruitment of the chief constable, I would double that timescale and still rate my chance of success at less than 80%.dr_spyn said:Andy Burnham has been speaking to the press.
https://www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/live-mayors-office-set-give-19485309
I wonder at what point a politician does take responsibility for the performance of a police force he oversees.
People are wholly unrealistic on what mayors can achieve.0 -
Not my assessment. All spin at our end. Deal certain.Morris_Dancer said:Every risk both sides think the other will buckle, we go to no deal, and polarisation and distrust increases from there.
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Apologies - gosh - I didn`t mean to be rude to you. I was (I thought) light-heartedly mentioning that it was the third time this thread that I`d pointed it out.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
I don't religiously read your posts, Stocky, and nor do I read in detail the hundreds of posts during the course of a day on this site. So thanks for pointing it out, but maybe you could consider being less of a prick about it?Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
100/1 for next PM seems fair. There seems to be something of a mismatch between that price and next Tory leader price, though, as there seems to be a better than one in three chance of the next Tory leader being next PM. Whilst Starmer has a reasonable chance next time, he's got a big hill to climb, and I can't see Johnson standing in 2028/9-ish.0 -
You're assuming no more approvals and no more increase in capacity and manufacturing. I think all three are false. We should peak at around 4m jabs per week from late Feb until mid April, if the J&J vaccine works then that's another 40m jabs we're due in H1 2021, and it's a single dose version that is stored in normal fridges.Black_Rook said:
Hmmm, we shall see. *IF* that timescale turns out to be accurate then it suggests that we'll have Shady Pines, the NHS and the over-80s through their first shots at least, and be getting started on the third segment in the JCVI plan i.e. the 75-79 cohort, about seven weeks after the first jab was administered. The number of recipients so far has been comparatively modest which, *IF* mother-in-law does get her first shot according to that estimate, suggests that they think they'll be getting something like 1-1.5 million people done per week by that point. In which case, the fourth, larger segment - 70-74s and the shielders - ought all to have had their first inoculations by the end of February.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine roll out is beginning to look like it's pretty well planned, and Hancock has to get kudos for that. My mother-in-law in Edgware (late 70s no comorbidites) has been told to expect to be vaccinated in late January.DavidL said:
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.
Guesstimating is complicated slightly by the fact that all the second immunisations have to be fitted in at some point as well, but perhaps at that rate we might expect everybody down as far as the 60 year olds to have had both shots by some point in late May or early June? That plus the arrival of better weather would presumably allow the first substantial easing of what I'm sure will be many months of really Draconian restrictions to come after Christmas. I can see England being in lockdown until at least mid-February, and most of us stuck in Tier 3 for months after that.
We could be out of the worst of this by the end of April and hopefully completely by the end of June for a decent summer of freedom.2 -
Back to near normal by mid summer is my expectation too.Black_Rook said:
Hmmm, we shall see. *IF* that timescale turns out to be accurate then it suggests that we'll have Shady Pines, the NHS and the over-80s through their first shots at least, and be getting started on the third segment in the JCVI plan i.e. the 75-79 cohort, about seven weeks after the first jab was administered. The number of recipients so far has been comparatively modest which, *IF* mother-in-law does get her first shot according to that estimate, suggests that they think they'll be getting something like 1-1.5 million people done per week by that point. In which case, the fourth, larger segment - 70-74s and the shielders - ought all to have had their first inoculations by the end of February.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine roll out is beginning to look like it's pretty well planned, and Hancock has to get kudos for that. My mother-in-law in Edgware (late 70s no comorbidites) has been told to expect to be vaccinated in late January.DavidL said:
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.
Guesstimating is complicated slightly by the fact that all the second immunisations have to be fitted in at some point as well, but perhaps at that rate we might expect everybody down as far as the 60 year olds to have had both shots by some point in late May or early June? That plus the arrival of better weather would presumably allow the first substantial easing of what I'm sure will be many months of really Draconian restrictions to come after Christmas. I can see England being in lockdown until at least mid-February, and most of us stuck in Tier 3 for months after that.0 -
I think that you are underestimating the impact that a vaccine which provides at least 95% immunity will have.Black_Rook said:
Hmmm, we shall see. *IF* that timescale turns out to be accurate then it suggests that we'll have Shady Pines, the NHS and the over-80s through their first shots at least, and be getting started on the third segment in the JCVI plan i.e. the 75-79 cohort, about seven weeks after the first jab was administered. The number of recipients so far has been comparatively modest which, *IF* mother-in-law does get her first shot according to that estimate, suggests that they think they'll be getting something like 1-1.5 million people done per week by that point. In which case, the fourth, larger segment - 70-74s and the shielders - ought all to have had their first inoculations by the end of February.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine roll out is beginning to look like it's pretty well planned, and Hancock has to get kudos for that. My mother-in-law in Edgware (late 70s no comorbidites) has been told to expect to be vaccinated in late January.DavidL said:
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.
Guesstimating is complicated slightly by the fact that all the second immunisations have to be fitted in at some point as well, but perhaps at that rate we might expect everybody down as far as the 60 year olds to have had both shots by some point in late May or early June? That plus the arrival of better weather would presumably allow the first substantial easing of what I'm sure will be many months of really Draconian restrictions to come after Christmas. I can see England being in lockdown until at least mid-February, and most of us stuck in Tier 3 for months after that.1 -
Sadly I am on call over the whole Christmas period. With a bit of luck we won't be drilling on Christmas Day which will make things easier but still no sauce.SandyRentool said:In other news:
1. We've got a new tap in the kitchen
2. That's me finished work for the year!
3. That's it0 -
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.0 -
https://www.thefa.com/news/2020/dec/18/update-on-crowd-related-investigations-181220
Having carefully considered these matters, including the observations from all relevant parties, we can confirm that no formal disciplinary action will be taken against the clubs concerned on this occasion.
However, we would like to further clarify that anyone who chooses to take the knee will continue to receive our support as they highlight the inequality and injustice experienced by the Black community.
Translation: we know full well that it’s a political statement, hence why they’re not punishing the clubs, but don’t want to tell the truth.1 -
Off topic
What is the difference between an intelligent member of the DfE and Bigfoot?
There’s some evidence for the existence of Bigfoot.1 -
Aren't Truss's parents quite left wing? They must have very mixed feelings.0
-
You`re not concerned about overall population size?Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
Spot on. My personal view - which seems to be unpopular with both sides of the Brexit debate and is certainly a minority view - is that we should not be restricting those who want to come to this country if their intent is to become a citizen. I would not even say they need to adopt all of our traditions and customs and certainly not our religions even though I have a deep love for our customs and traditions (if not for religion in any form). There is room enough for different customs and traditions living side by side.Philip_Thompson said:
It depends upon how you define nationalism.kinabalu said:
Ha. Very good. But you know what I mean, I think. You're quite nationalistic.Philip_Thompson said:
Actually I have a small Nation State thing going on. It's why I support Sindy etc.kinabalu said:
You have a massive Nation State thing going on too. This is clear.Philip_Thompson said:
You've hit the nail on the head about individualism v collectivism v family/nationalism.Stocky said:
Yes to that. But you can`t get away from ideological underpinnings completely: that the unit of importance for liberalism is the individual/liberty, for collectivists it is groups/communities and for conservatives it is family unit/nation.stodge said:
The thing is, a lot of people seem happy to describe themselves as "liberal" and all seem to have different interpretations of what the term "liberal" actually means.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an LD, I'm a liberal. That's why I'm in the Conservative Party.
I've encountered liberals in the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties in my time and I suppose the real schism in 20th century politics was within liberalism. The emergence of social democracy in the 1930s and notions of the Welfare State, begun under Asquith and continued by Beveridge, have defined or re-defined liberalism and moved it away from the Gladstonian notion or, as it is sometimes termed, "classical liberalism".
Despite that, the superficial synergies between liberalism and social democracy masked some strong philosophical divergences . In the same way, Cameron's notion of "liberal conservatism", for all it appeared similar to Orange Book Liberalism, wasn't and the divergence after 2010 was rapid.
Looking at it now from the outside, it's not something over which to lose sleep. How political thought responds to growing environmental concerns, notions of AI and the place of the individual, not so much via-a-vis the State but in terms of the notion of individuality in the Information Age is the kind of areas of debate for liberals, conservatives and socialists alike.
Given that the LibDems are supposed to be representing the former, it is regrettable that people like PT (and Truss for that matter) are not LibDems.
I believe firmly in individualism/liberty first and foremost. Can you say the same about LDs? Clegg, Davey, Alexander maybe which is why they worked well in the Coalition.
But not the Cable, Farron, Swinson wing who are more collectivists.
Smaller is better. Closer to the people.
I think citizens of a nation should vote for that nations laws absolutely. But that's democracy not nationalism.
I also believe people should be able (within reason) to choose which nation they want to be their nation.
I despise things like birtherism. I like relatively open borders globally. Let people who want to come and become citizens of this nation.
They would however have to adopt some of the fundamental principles and ethical positions that underlie our democracy. Belief in democracy, adherence to the law which can only be changed by the traditional means of the democratic process, acceptance of equality of gender, race, sexuality and any other equalities passed by our Parliament. Our judicial and Governmental principles (although the practices are open to debate and reform). Also absolute acceptance of freedom of speech and association and the laws and customs that underpin all these things.
This is just a list off the top of my head and I am sure there would be others. But if people are willing to accept these things and wish to become British/English/Scottish etc then I would be welcoming them.
For concrete examples I would be encouraging EU nationals to stay and be welcome. I would also welcome any from Hong Kong who wish to come here.0 -
What about LadyG's dear old pater?rcs1000 said:
FYI, Sean Thomas's father has now also had the vaccine.rottenborough said:"Both vaccines are supposed to be administered in two doses, a prime and a booster, 21 days apart for Pfizer and 28 days for Moderna. However, in data provided to the F.D.A., there are clues for a tantalizing possibility: that even a single dose may provide significant levels of protection against the disease.
If that’s shown to be the case, this would be a game changer, allowing us to vaccinate up to twice the number of people and greatly alleviating the suffering not just in the United States, but also in countries where vaccine shortages may take years to resolve."
https://www.nytimes.com/2020/12/18/opinion/coronavirus-vaccine-doses.html?action=click&module=Opinion&pgtype=Homepage
And then there's (That's enough phony personae pater patter - mods)2 -
https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1339984241938018311
How can any PM justify relaxing the rules in these circumstances, this is absolutely nuts.0 -
You may be right (and pray God you are) but a faster rollout rests on so many things going right. Additional vaccines need to be approved and made available quickly, there needs to be the organisation and capacity to deliver many millions of injections per week (complicated doubtless by the need for social distancing and the difficulty for many patients of getting to vaccination hubs in the first place,) and then there's the bells and whistles that might be attached to each vaccine. We already know about the complications with Pfizer surrounding cold storage and having to monitor recipients for allergic reactions; what handicaps might be coming with the other candidates?MaxPB said:
You're assuming no more approvals and no more increase in capacity and manufacturing. I think all three are false. We should peak at around 4m jabs per week from late Feb until mid April, if the J&J vaccine works then that's another 40m jabs we're due in H1 2021, and it's a single dose version that is stored in normal fridges.Black_Rook said:
Hmmm, we shall see. *IF* that timescale turns out to be accurate then it suggests that we'll have Shady Pines, the NHS and the over-80s through their first shots at least, and be getting started on the third segment in the JCVI plan i.e. the 75-79 cohort, about seven weeks after the first jab was administered. The number of recipients so far has been comparatively modest which, *IF* mother-in-law does get her first shot according to that estimate, suggests that they think they'll be getting something like 1-1.5 million people done per week by that point. In which case, the fourth, larger segment - 70-74s and the shielders - ought all to have had their first inoculations by the end of February.rcs1000 said:
The vaccine roll out is beginning to look like it's pretty well planned, and Hancock has to get kudos for that. My mother-in-law in Edgware (late 70s no comorbidites) has been told to expect to be vaccinated in late January.DavidL said:
I am not so sure. Sunak seemed to have done really well with the furlough scheme, the self employment payments, the support for pubs etc but behind the scene he seems to have miscalled the progress of the virus and been badly caught out by the second wave. His judgment, understandably focused on the economic disaster the virus has caused, has been ordinary.HYUFD said:Truss has a Yougov rating of +12% positive but -15% negative, Sunak has a Yougov rating of +48% positive and -17% negative.
Truss has done a good job getting UK trade deals, that does not mean she would be better than Sunak in terms of beating Starmer.
The next leader for the Tories in power certainly will be Sunak
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Liz_Truss
https://yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/explore/public_figure/Rishi_Sunak
Hancock, in contrast, started off the virus so badly he probably should have been sacked but he seems to me to have got on top of this more than anyone else in recent months. He is an increasingly assured performer.
Truss has done spectacularly well with the trade deals and this was an interesting speech but probably needs a promotion (possibly to Home Secretary) to really get in the frame.
My view, FWIW, is that Boris is going to be around for longer than many seem to think and a lot of candidates are going to come and go in that time.
Guesstimating is complicated slightly by the fact that all the second immunisations have to be fitted in at some point as well, but perhaps at that rate we might expect everybody down as far as the 60 year olds to have had both shots by some point in late May or early June? That plus the arrival of better weather would presumably allow the first substantial easing of what I'm sure will be many months of really Draconian restrictions to come after Christmas. I can see England being in lockdown until at least mid-February, and most of us stuck in Tier 3 for months after that.
We could be out of the worst of this by the end of April and hopefully completely by the end of June for a decent summer of freedom.
But believe me, acknowledging the mere possibility that we could have all the most vulnerable people in society immunised as early as May/June is progress from my point of view. I've previously assumed that my clinically extremely vulnerable husband would have to wait until April. If he's only got to sit it out until February that'd be a big result as far as I'm concerned.
Possibly, but I am concerned that we won't be able to get very far with unshuttering society until the bulk of the most vulnerable have been vaccinated. Getting all the over-80s and care home residents done ought greatly to reduce the death rate, but it'll have a much more moderate effect on hospitalisations.NerysHughes said:I think that you are underestimating the impact that a vaccine which provides at least 95% immunity will have.
1 -
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.0 -
Summary:
Talks flounder on fish.
Truss finds truss in betting odds.
Policeman's lot is not a happy one.1 -
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.0 -
There will be quite a few other similar arb bets before this is settled. The big exposure is on Betfair, and you only need that once, as you can lay all the runners with the same cash. Adding the bookie stakes as they come along for whatever you are allowed to get on, which lets face it wont be much, is just a means of enforced saving.kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.1 -
UK cases by specimen date
0 -
That is utterly spooky for me to hear, Sandy, because I have just a few minutes ago waved farewell to the plumber who has done guess what in our kitchen? Yep. Fixed us up with a NEW TAP.SandyRentool said:In other news:
1. We've got a new tap in the kitchen
2. That's me finished work for the year!
3. That's it
#morethatunites0 -
A list of the people Truss has slept with?Stocky said:
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.1 -
UK cases by specimen date and scaled to 100K population
0 -
UK local R
0 -
Yes, I agree. (Even though I have money on her at 100/1.)Roger said:
Hi Stjohn. I wouldn't do this for everyone ....but she's got no chance!stjohn said:I've had £66 on Liz at 33/1 to be next Tory leader. In Liz we Truss!
I cannot see how she builds support from sufficient number of MPs to put her through to the membership vote. If she does manage it she has every chance, but I can`t see it.
HYUFD is your man - but I`d guess that as we stand the potential candidates with a decent MP power-base is currently Sunak, Gove and (possibly) Hunt.0 -
I dont know whether to laugh or find myself reminded that women are judged to a different standard than men here. Both might be the answer.ydoethur said:
A list of the people Truss has slept with?Stocky said:
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.0 -
Certainly not into French trawlers from 1st January.....kinabalu said:
No rush. The fish are not going anywhere.rottenborough said:1 -
UK case summary
Today
Yesterday
Positivity
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I make exactly the comments about Johnson and Corbyn.noneoftheabove said:
I dont know whether to laugh or find myself reminded that women are judged to a different standard than men here. Both might be the answer.ydoethur said:
A list of the people Truss has slept with?Stocky said:
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.1 -
UK Hospitals
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UK deaths
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UK R
From case data
From hospital data
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Numbers in hospital now higher than peak two.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1339984241938018311
How can any PM justify relaxing the rules in these circumstances, this is absolutely nuts.1 -
I tested the waters (erm) with my in-laws this afternoon. Keen brexiteers. I asked how they would feel if a trade deal was agreed which involved Johnson capitulating on the fishing territories. They both said "he`d be finished".MarqueeMark said:
Certainly not into French trawlers from 1st January.....kinabalu said:
No rush. The fish are not going anywhere.rottenborough said:
It is a totemic issue and I think No Deal is likelier than many think (though, on balance, I think Johnson will agree a deal as he`s more frit of no deal than risking the ire of many leavers).0 -
That's where you've got several candidates laid. Then if you lay a new one - Truss say - unless it's to lose more than your existing net exposure it will not tie up any new money. It's free in that respect. In fact it will likely REDUCE your exposure (by the amount of the new bet) and UP your cash balance. It's a great thing to get going on long term markets where there are lots of runners and riders.Stocky said:
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.0 -
It's the combination of measures taken that reveals to me exactly how clueless both the Government and its scientific advisers are.CorrectHorseBattery said:https://twitter.com/JasonGroves1/status/1339984241938018311
How can any PM justify relaxing the rules in these circumstances, this is absolutely nuts.
You can approach Christmas in two ways:
1. Extreme emergency, NHS and spiralling infection rates take priority over everything, lock down now, cancel Christmas
2. We're not going to cancel Christmas because too many people will lose faith in us and disobey, and/or the impact on the flagging mental health of the population will be too much
Now, in the latter case, surely the correct approach would expressly *NOT* be to shutter the hospitality industry in most of England, but positively to encourage as many people as possible to go to a restaurant for Christmas. Restaurants provide compulsive cleaning regimes, masks everywhere when not actually sat down and eating, good ventilation and blanket taking of track and trace details. Going round each others' houses provides none of these benefits. And household transmission, not hospitality, is the primary driver of infection.
They ought either to lock everybody up or get as many people as possible to celebrate in Covid-secure venues. Instead, they've simultaneously declared a virtual free-for-all on household gatherings whilst closing all the Covid-secure venues in most of the country so as to positively herd the population into cramped parties in private homes. It's the worst of all worlds and Whitty as well as Johnson has defended the approach. It's imbeclic.1 -
Ahem. This is down to me.
Well, moving the market down initially from 100/1 to 50/1 and posting on here was anyway.0 -
Oh, I see - you mean lays in the same market, yes?kinabalu said:
That's where you've got several candidates laid. Then if you lay a new one - Truss say - unless it's to lose more than your existing net exposure it will not tie up any new money. It's free in that respect. In fact it will likely REDUCE your exposure (by the amount of the new bet) and UP your cash balance. It's a great thing to get going on long term markets where there are lots of runners and riders.Stocky said:
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.0 -
One thing that is interesting in the immigration debate is the refusal of a number of people to engage with the idea of what population size is optimal for the country.Stocky said:
You`re not concerned about overall population size?Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
Spot on. My personal view - which seems to be unpopular with both sides of the Brexit debate and is certainly a minority view - is that we should not be restricting those who want to come to this country if their intent is to become a citizen. I would not even say they need to adopt all of our traditions and customs and certainly not our religions even though I have a deep love for our customs and traditions (if not for religion in any form). There is room enough for different customs and traditions living side by side.Philip_Thompson said:
It depends upon how you define nationalism.kinabalu said:
Ha. Very good. But you know what I mean, I think. You're quite nationalistic.Philip_Thompson said:
Actually I have a small Nation State thing going on. It's why I support Sindy etc.kinabalu said:
You have a massive Nation State thing going on too. This is clear.Philip_Thompson said:
You've hit the nail on the head about individualism v collectivism v family/nationalism.Stocky said:
Yes to that. But you can`t get away from ideological underpinnings completely: that the unit of importance for liberalism is the individual/liberty, for collectivists it is groups/communities and for conservatives it is family unit/nation.stodge said:
The thing is, a lot of people seem happy to describe themselves as "liberal" and all seem to have different interpretations of what the term "liberal" actually means.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an LD, I'm a liberal. That's why I'm in the Conservative Party.
I've encountered liberals in the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties in my time and I suppose the real schism in 20th century politics was within liberalism. The emergence of social democracy in the 1930s and notions of the Welfare State, begun under Asquith and continued by Beveridge, have defined or re-defined liberalism and moved it away from the Gladstonian notion or, as it is sometimes termed, "classical liberalism".
Despite that, the superficial synergies between liberalism and social democracy masked some strong philosophical divergences . In the same way, Cameron's notion of "liberal conservatism", for all it appeared similar to Orange Book Liberalism, wasn't and the divergence after 2010 was rapid.
Looking at it now from the outside, it's not something over which to lose sleep. How political thought responds to growing environmental concerns, notions of AI and the place of the individual, not so much via-a-vis the State but in terms of the notion of individuality in the Information Age is the kind of areas of debate for liberals, conservatives and socialists alike.
Given that the LibDems are supposed to be representing the former, it is regrettable that people like PT (and Truss for that matter) are not LibDems.
I believe firmly in individualism/liberty first and foremost. Can you say the same about LDs? Clegg, Davey, Alexander maybe which is why they worked well in the Coalition.
But not the Cable, Farron, Swinson wing who are more collectivists.
Smaller is better. Closer to the people.
I think citizens of a nation should vote for that nations laws absolutely. But that's democracy not nationalism.
I also believe people should be able (within reason) to choose which nation they want to be their nation.
I despise things like birtherism. I like relatively open borders globally. Let people who want to come and become citizens of this nation.
They would however have to adopt some of the fundamental principles and ethical positions that underlie our democracy. Belief in democracy, adherence to the law which can only be changed by the traditional means of the democratic process, acceptance of equality of gender, race, sexuality and any other equalities passed by our Parliament. Our judicial and Governmental principles (although the practices are open to debate and reform). Also absolute acceptance of freedom of speech and association and the laws and customs that underpin all these things.
This is just a list off the top of my head and I am sure there would be others. But if people are willing to accept these things and wish to become British/English/Scottish etc then I would be welcoming them.
For concrete examples I would be encouraging EU nationals to stay and be welcome. I would also welcome any from Hong Kong who wish to come here.
Yet, the same people argue for planning (for decades in advance) for schools, hospitals, roads, railways, airports, house building, reservoir, electricity generation etc etc.
All of which depend on the size of the population.
I personally prefer the frankness of one Deep Green of my acquaintance - she was quite clear that she expected the population to be ever increasing, with a steady reduction in allowed housing space per person.2 -
No - enough! - she`s a married woman with two children.ydoethur said:
A list of the people Truss has slept with?Stocky said:
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.0 -
Thanks mate.MaxPB said:Well done to @Casino_Royale for getting ahead of the game with this.
0 -
Those r rates in the South and East are severe. Wholly overshadowing the national rate.
Hopefully schools closing won't encourage folk to cram into shopping centres.
Not at all optimistic.0 -
Ha! The Spirit of Brexit, right there.MarqueeMark said:
Certainly not into French trawlers from 1st January.....kinabalu said:
No rush. The fish are not going anywhere.rottenborough said:
No, not you, Richard Tyndall, before you leap in. You are the Accidental Brexiteer.1 -
Not at the moment no. And it will to some extent be self regulating. Of course at some point in the future it might become an issue but at that point you change policy. Right now in the UK the issue is a demographic timebomb where by we have an aging population and a falling birthrate. Nice if you are independently wealthy but for anyone else it means more likelihood of being poor in old age when the state can no longer afford to look after you.Stocky said:
You`re not concerned about overall population size?Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
Spot on. My personal view - which seems to be unpopular with both sides of the Brexit debate and is certainly a minority view - is that we should not be restricting those who want to come to this country if their intent is to become a citizen. I would not even say they need to adopt all of our traditions and customs and certainly not our religions even though I have a deep love for our customs and traditions (if not for religion in any form). There is room enough for different customs and traditions living side by side.Philip_Thompson said:
It depends upon how you define nationalism.kinabalu said:
Ha. Very good. But you know what I mean, I think. You're quite nationalistic.Philip_Thompson said:
Actually I have a small Nation State thing going on. It's why I support Sindy etc.kinabalu said:
You have a massive Nation State thing going on too. This is clear.Philip_Thompson said:
You've hit the nail on the head about individualism v collectivism v family/nationalism.Stocky said:
Yes to that. But you can`t get away from ideological underpinnings completely: that the unit of importance for liberalism is the individual/liberty, for collectivists it is groups/communities and for conservatives it is family unit/nation.stodge said:
The thing is, a lot of people seem happy to describe themselves as "liberal" and all seem to have different interpretations of what the term "liberal" actually means.Philip_Thompson said:
I'm not an LD, I'm a liberal. That's why I'm in the Conservative Party.
I've encountered liberals in the Conservative, Labour and Liberal Democrat parties in my time and I suppose the real schism in 20th century politics was within liberalism. The emergence of social democracy in the 1930s and notions of the Welfare State, begun under Asquith and continued by Beveridge, have defined or re-defined liberalism and moved it away from the Gladstonian notion or, as it is sometimes termed, "classical liberalism".
Despite that, the superficial synergies between liberalism and social democracy masked some strong philosophical divergences . In the same way, Cameron's notion of "liberal conservatism", for all it appeared similar to Orange Book Liberalism, wasn't and the divergence after 2010 was rapid.
Looking at it now from the outside, it's not something over which to lose sleep. How political thought responds to growing environmental concerns, notions of AI and the place of the individual, not so much via-a-vis the State but in terms of the notion of individuality in the Information Age is the kind of areas of debate for liberals, conservatives and socialists alike.
Given that the LibDems are supposed to be representing the former, it is regrettable that people like PT (and Truss for that matter) are not LibDems.
I believe firmly in individualism/liberty first and foremost. Can you say the same about LDs? Clegg, Davey, Alexander maybe which is why they worked well in the Coalition.
But not the Cable, Farron, Swinson wing who are more collectivists.
Smaller is better. Closer to the people.
I think citizens of a nation should vote for that nations laws absolutely. But that's democracy not nationalism.
I also believe people should be able (within reason) to choose which nation they want to be their nation.
I despise things like birtherism. I like relatively open borders globally. Let people who want to come and become citizens of this nation.
They would however have to adopt some of the fundamental principles and ethical positions that underlie our democracy. Belief in democracy, adherence to the law which can only be changed by the traditional means of the democratic process, acceptance of equality of gender, race, sexuality and any other equalities passed by our Parliament. Our judicial and Governmental principles (although the practices are open to debate and reform). Also absolute acceptance of freedom of speech and association and the laws and customs that underpin all these things.
This is just a list off the top of my head and I am sure there would be others. But if people are willing to accept these things and wish to become British/English/Scottish etc then I would be welcoming them.
For concrete examples I would be encouraging EU nationals to stay and be welcome. I would also welcome any from Hong Kong who wish to come here.1 -
Well, it can’t be a list of the people Johnson has slept with, as that’s not a portfolio it’s an entire fucking database.Stocky said:
No - enough! - she`s a married woman with two children.ydoethur said:
A list of the people Truss has slept with?Stocky said:
What`s a Betfair lay portfolio?kinabalu said:
That's true. You'd need to have a Betfair lay portfolio going, or be planning one.Stocky said:
Yes, there is a big arb available. Back at 100/1 with VC and lay at 1/49 with BF.kinabalu said:
That £20 at 100s can be laid off right now on Betfair at 50s.Stocky said:
Jeez. I`m getting fed up of this. You`re nor comparing apples with apples. The tip was 100/1 for next PM. She has been chopped down by most bookies, but you can still get 100/1 for Next PM. I`ve just had a tenner on with Victor Chandler (they reduced me from £20 the cowards).SirNorfolkPassmore said:A good tip at 100-1, but not at 33-1.
She's getting good headlines as far as the Tory faithful are concerned lately, and seems to be flavour of the week, but there's a longer term picture. Overall, she has a mediocre performance as a minister, and her conference speeches are noted only for how poor they are. She's okay at staying out of trouble, but there isn't a "Truss faction" in the Parliamentary party, and she isn't charismatic.
Frankly, she'd need a lot to go right from here to take the crown, and I just don't see it.
Truss is 33/1 for Next Conservative leader. Different market.
That's a real 'smug city' opportunity (unless you think 50 is still too long).
Trouble is, as the arb is across two different bookies I`d have to tie up a heck of a lot of money until 2024 to lay it off.2
