The Small Print – politicalbetting.com
Numerous sources in London and Brussels have said this is completely untrue.
Comments
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Very good header, and one which reinforces my (only slightly-serious) view that the Lawyer by day Gambler by night is a particularly effective combo in this life.0
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Top piece Alastair.1
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LIVERPOOL!2
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Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.0 -
Just about deserved itTheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
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Quite right. You would be mad to enter any contract on terms described by the other side as "purposely ambiguous."0
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Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.0 -
Looks like Big G and mexicanpete are the property magnates on here! 😊👍0
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Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.0 -
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We are in Wales. A six bedroom house here is the same price as a parking space in Camden.londonpubman said:Looks like Big G and mexicanpete are the property magnates on here! 😊👍
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I doubt it with so many London posterslondonpubman said:Looks like Big G and mexicanpete are the property magnates on here! 😊👍
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And it is free with Amazon PrimeFoxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.0 -
If I had been asked to guess what the most likely problem with any government programme was, 'IT problems' would have been been no. 1.Scott_xP said:1 -
At the moment.Big_G_NorthWales said:
And it is free with Amazon PrimeFoxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.0 -
The plans for the really mass vaccination haven't be implemented yet - the target is 3-4 million per week, with thousands of centres doing shots. GPs only start doing them on Monday, I believe.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.0 -
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.0 -
No problems here in LlandudnoTheScreamingEagles said:
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.0 -
Ok but if we can get the 65+ plus those with significant health problems vaccinated by end Feb say 15m people that largely takes away the exposure to deaths and hospital admissions by end March, 90% minimum.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.0 -
I think they should get to 3 million per week, once they bring everything on stream. All the GP hubs will add up to a lot of jabs. And we're shortly going to be supply-limited anyway. Even assuming AZN and MRNA are approved and manufacturing doesn't have further hitches, from what I can see it's going to be on the order of 3-4 months before we receive 40-50 million doses anyway.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
My concern is that many people will see deaths dropping, which ought to happen rather rapidly once the over-80s are vaccinated, and let restrictions slip. Then the NHS is in big trouble because the limit is not, sad to say deaths. It's hospitalizations, and they won't drop nearly as fast until over 60s are mostly vaccinated, and even then a lot of 40-60 year olds will need hospital treatment.
--AS1 -
Have you forgotten everyone needs to be done twice?stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
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Yes, we clearly need to ramp it up but I'm very willing to believe we will. We've barely gotten started.Malmesbury said:
The plans for the really mass vaccination haven't be implemented yet - the target is 3-4 million per week, with thousands of centres doing shots. GPs only start doing them on Monday, I believe.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
Also, given we are vaccinating by risk and not at random, I wonder at what point the main threat of the pandemic is gone anyway. Could be a modest fraction of the population. I never supported the idea that we should shield all over 60s and let everyone else live as normal because I thought it was impractical to implement, but vaccinating all that group and letting everyone live as normal might make sense - with everyone else getting vaccinated after most restrictions are lifted.1 -
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.0 -
Indeed.TheScreamingEagles said:Top piece Alastair.
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He seems a tad self-centered.CarlottaVance said:0 -
I don't think vaccinating over 65s takes away 90% of hospital admissions, sadly. Perhaps only 50%, even assuming the vaccine is highly effective in preventing serious disease.londonpubman said:
Ok but if we can get the 65+ plus those with significant health problems vaccinated by end Feb say 15m people that largely takes away the exposure to deaths and hospital admissions by end March, 90% minimum.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
--AS
EDIT: on some quick googling, hopefully it's more like 75% actually. A link to definitive data would be welcome.0 -
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.Andy_JS said:
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.0 -
To clarify, 25.2 million people over 50 (according to 2019 estimates) represents 37.5% of the population (roughly). That's 50 million separate vaccinations in theory and 40 million based on an 80% take up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summer
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.
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Excellent header. I too am staying away from the various deal/no-deal markets because definitions are too nebulous.1
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Really?CarlottaVance said:
Gosh. The US lags behind Europe. And indeed many other nations by a long way on this.1 -
Well, you are only just around the corner from Anfield!Big_G_NorthWales said:
No problems here in LlandudnoTheScreamingEagles said:
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.0 -
No messing from the Mirror tonight:
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1339330389559668736/photo/10 -
We won't be able to drop restrictions before 1 April as we need Q1 to reach the 65+ minimum. The Treasury is ready for this as has extended the furlough until 31 March.AlwaysSinging said:
I think they should get to 3 million per week, once they bring everything on stream. All the GP hubs will add up to a lot of jabs. And we're shortly going to be supply-limited anyway. Even assuming AZN and MRNA are approved and manufacturing doesn't have further hitches, from what I can see it's going to be on the order of 3-4 months before we receive 40-50 million doses anyway.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
My concern is that many people will see deaths dropping, which ought to happen rather rapidly once the over-80s are vaccinated, and let restrictions slip. Then the NHS is in big trouble because the limit is not, sad to say deaths. It's hospitalizations, and they won't drop nearly as fast until over 60s are mostly vaccinated, and even then a lot of 40-60 year olds will need hospital treatment.
--AS
Boris will have to bring in the Tier 4 type lockdown from 28 Dec and say it's till 28 Feb minimum. Including secondary schools closed as I have posted here previously.
And we need to get the Oxford Astra Zeneca approved NOW0 -
Everyone and their mother will be administering jabs. It’ll be complete (whatever that means) well before 18 months.stodge said:
To clarify, 25.2 million people over 50 (according to 2019 estimates) represents 37.5% of the population (roughly). That's 50 million separate vaccinations in theory and 40 million based on an 80% take up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summer
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.0 -
I was going to ask whether there was an explanation for the missing 40k welsh tests.
But the BBC have given it:
An extra 11,000 positive Covid tests are currently missing from official figures in Wales, meaning recent cases are significantly higher than has been reported.
Public Health Wales (PHW) said that due to "planned maintenance" of some IT systems there was a "significant under-reporting" of positive tests.
The problem relates to tests processed in "lighthouse labs".
The Conservatives said the news was "staggering".
The 11,000 extra positive tests were mostly taken between 9 and 15 December. They will be added to PHW's dashboard, which records the figures, on Thursday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-551053070 -
That's still a lot of folks.rottenborough said:
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.Andy_JS said:
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
Many months from that, as others are pointing out.
Also. Who will be administering these jabs? And the paperwork? Surely this will have a huge effect on other medical care?0 -
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My only complaint is the pisspoor efforts of my team. We really struggle to breakdown a team that plays deep.TheScreamingEagles said:
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.0 -
Indeed.rottenborough said:
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.Andy_JS said:
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
But I suspect some people rather like the lockdown concept with the government saying what and when people are allowed to do things.0 -
I agree. But we have to have some line in the sand on all this. We must get to a point where there is a level of risk that is acceptable when weighed in balance.dixiedean said:
That's still a lot of folks.rottenborough said:
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.Andy_JS said:
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
I want to hear more from ministers as to where that point is.2 -
This was highlighted earlier by @Gaussiananother_richard said:I was going to ask whether there was an explanation for the missing 40k welsh tests.
But the BBC have given it:
An extra 11,000 positive Covid tests are currently missing from official figures in Wales, meaning recent cases are significantly higher than has been reported.
Public Health Wales (PHW) said that due to "planned maintenance" of some IT systems there was a "significant under-reporting" of positive tests.
The problem relates to tests processed in "lighthouse labs".
The Conservatives said the news was "staggering".
The 11,000 extra positive tests were mostly taken between 9 and 15 December. They will be added to PHW's dashboard, which records the figures, on Thursday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-551053070 -
Excellent choice.dixiedean said:
Really?CarlottaVance said:
Gosh. The US lags behind Europe. And indeed many other nations by a long way on this.0 -
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:AlwaysSinging said:
I think they should get to 3 million per week, once they bring everything on stream. All the GP hubs will add up to a lot of jabs. And we're shortly going to be supply-limited anyway. Even assuming AZN and MRNA are approved and manufacturing doesn't have further hitches, from what I can see it's going to be on the order of 3-4 months before we receive 40-50 million doses anyway.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
My concern is that many people will see deaths dropping, which ought to happen rather rapidly once the over-80s are vaccinated, and let restrictions slip. Then the NHS is in big trouble because the limit is not, sad to say deaths. It's hospitalizations, and they won't drop nearly as fast until over 60s are mostly vaccinated, and even then a lot of 40-60 year olds will need hospital treatment.
--AS
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=343381 -
Yes, I broadly agree with this. It's a terrible shame that AZN made such a mess of their trial. I'm sure that's why the MHRA are still looking at it, and it might be sensible to roll it out a little gradually to keep an eye on the possibly-random-but-possibly-causal significant side effect seen in the trials.londonpubman said:
We won't be able to drop restrictions before 1 April as we need Q1 to reach the 65+ minimum. The Treasury is ready for this as has extended the furlough until 31 March.AlwaysSinging said:
I think they should get to 3 million per week, once they bring everything on stream. All the GP hubs will add up to a lot of jabs. And we're shortly going to be supply-limited anyway. Even assuming AZN and MRNA are approved and manufacturing doesn't have further hitches, from what I can see it's going to be on the order of 3-4 months before we receive 40-50 million doses anyway.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
My concern is that many people will see deaths dropping, which ought to happen rather rapidly once the over-80s are vaccinated, and let restrictions slip. Then the NHS is in big trouble because the limit is not, sad to say deaths. It's hospitalizations, and they won't drop nearly as fast until over 60s are mostly vaccinated, and even then a lot of 40-60 year olds will need hospital treatment.
--AS
Boris will have to bring in the Tier 4 type lockdown from 28 Dec and say it's till 28 Feb minimum. Including secondary schools closed as I have posted here previously.
And we need to get the Oxford Astra Zeneca approved NOW
--AS2 -
Its a bit annoying when you discover something interesting but the story comes out before you can reveal it on PBMexicanpete said:
This was highlighted earlier by @Gaussiananother_richard said:I was going to ask whether there was an explanation for the missing 40k welsh tests.
But the BBC have given it:
An extra 11,000 positive Covid tests are currently missing from official figures in Wales, meaning recent cases are significantly higher than has been reported.
Public Health Wales (PHW) said that due to "planned maintenance" of some IT systems there was a "significant under-reporting" of positive tests.
The problem relates to tests processed in "lighthouse labs".
The Conservatives said the news was "staggering".
The 11,000 extra positive tests were mostly taken between 9 and 15 December. They will be added to PHW's dashboard, which records the figures, on Thursday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55105307
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales1 -
Re vaccines. Mrs. P's 87 year old father has just got a letter inviting him into the local hospital for a Covid vaccine on Tuesday.
We're all quite pleasantly surprised the system seems to be working tbh.3 -
No winter weather reason either.FrancisUrquhart said:0 -
You were really insipid. How the heck are you fourth?Foxy said:
My only complaint is the pisspoor efforts of my team. We really struggle to breakdown a team that plays deep.TheScreamingEagles said:
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.
I say that as one who thinks how the heck are EFC fifth?0 -
Our local surgery does the flu shots for the elderly and asthmatic In two mornings, a well organised production line. I suspect Covid will be similar Once the supply of vaccines is there, and especially if it’s the easier to handle AZ one. The allergic reactions to the Pfizer jab have added a complicating factor (wait 15 mins) but with enough jabbers and locations, we’ll get this done.RobD said:
Everyone and their mother will be administering jabs. It’ll be complete (whatever that means) well before 18 months.stodge said:
To clarify, 25.2 million people over 50 (according to 2019 estimates) represents 37.5% of the population (roughly). That's 50 million separate vaccinations in theory and 40 million based on an 80% take up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summer
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.0 -
It's fairly stock words albeit for a noteworthy event, but there's just something about Buttegieg that I find compelling in his delivery and style. I hope he does well, as he could go very far.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Agreed.rottenborough said:
Excellent choice.dixiedean said:
Really?CarlottaVance said:
Gosh. The US lags behind Europe. And indeed many other nations by a long way on this.
This is a decent analysis:
https://slate.com/business/2020/12/pete-buttigieg-transportation-secretary-itll-be-fine.html
He’s perhaps not the most qualified, but he’s more likely than many of those who are actually to get stuff done. And he’s probably the most articulate member of the administration.0 -
It is indeed a lot of staff required, and the Pfizer vaccine is very awkward to handle. I think millions per week is not yet realistic, not least because of supply issues.dixiedean said:
That's still a lot of folks.rottenborough said:
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.Andy_JS said:
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
Many months from that, as others are pointing out.
Also. Who will be administering these jabs? And the paperwork? Surely this will have a huge effect on other medical care?0 -
At our flu shot session on Saturday each of the two nurses was injecting a patient every 3 minutes.
Let's say 7 working hours, that is 140 per day per nurse. 700 per working week.
So, 50 million shots over 4 months would require 50,000,000 / (17 x 700) = 4,202 nurses or other trained staff administering the vaccine. Not a crazy number.1 -
People cannot briefly focus on themselves when talking about their own appointment? Seems an appropriate time for it.RobD said:
He seems a tad self-centered.CarlottaVance said:
And it might be a flaw, he certainly doesn't lack for self confidence so he might have a bit too much of it, but even with that flaw, it can make a difference from too much ostentatous humility perhaps. He actually has to deliver in a significant job now (not to denigrate being a mayor), so it will be interesting to see how he does.0 -
As secretary of transport? When has the last one of those done anything of note?kle4 said:
People cannot briefly focus on themselves when talking about their own appointment? Seems an appropriate time for it.RobD said:
He seems a tad self-centered.CarlottaVance said:
And it might be a flaw, he certainly doesn't lack for self confidence so he might have a bit too much of it, but even with that flaw, it can make a difference from too much ostentatous humility perhaps. He actually has to deliver in a significant job now (not to denigrate being a mayor), so it will be interesting to see how he does.
0 -
We missed Evans at the back. None of our back four tonight would have been considered first teamers at the start of the season.dixiedean said:
You were really insipid. How the heck are you fourth?Foxy said:
My only complaint is the pisspoor efforts of my team. We really struggle to breakdown a team that plays deep.TheScreamingEagles said:
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.
I say that as one who thinks how the heck are EFC fifth?
We have some tremendous performances, and some gutless ones, but to be fair, no team has been very consistent this strange season. I think Liverpool will win this.0 -
If it's anything like here the role will be largely invisible, but it's still significant, which means it is probably a good place for him prove himself to the movers and shakers without too much fuss. We already know he can campaign surprisingly well.RobD said:
As secretary of transport? When has the last one of those done anything of note?kle4 said:
People cannot briefly focus on themselves when talking about their own appointment? Seems an appropriate time for it.RobD said:
He seems a tad self-centered.CarlottaVance said:
And it might be a flaw, he certainly doesn't lack for self confidence so he might have a bit too much of it, but even with that flaw, it can make a difference from too much ostentatous humility perhaps. He actually has to deliver in a significant job now (not to denigrate being a mayor), so it will be interesting to see how he does.0 -
Exactly, not a tough act to follow!RobD said:
As secretary of transport? When has the last one of those done anything of note?kle4 said:
People cannot briefly focus on themselves when talking about their own appointment? Seems an appropriate time for it.RobD said:
He seems a tad self-centered.CarlottaVance said:
And it might be a flaw, he certainly doesn't lack for self confidence so he might have a bit too much of it, but even with that flaw, it can make a difference from too much ostentatous humility perhaps. He actually has to deliver in a significant job now (not to denigrate being a mayor), so it will be interesting to see how he does.
Sorting out Americas crumbling infrastructure for the modern age is a worthwhile task.0 -
Spurs still not ready to win the League. Just like 20160
-
Really? I suspect such people are few and far between.another_richard said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.Andy_JS said:
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
But I suspect some people rather like the lockdown concept with the government saying what and when people are allowed to do things.
Most just stoically subscribe to Churchill's line:
"If you're going through hell, keep going."0 -
1.4 million shots a week sounds insane.stodge said:
To clarify, 25.2 million people over 50 (according to 2019 estimates) represents 37.5% of the population (roughly). That's 50 million separate vaccinations in theory and 40 million based on an 80% take up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summer
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.
But there are about 10,000 GP's practices in the UK.
To get to 200,000 a day requires each GP's practise to do... ooohhh... 20 a day. Why can't a GP practise do someone every 10 minutes for eight hours? That's about 50 vaccinations a day.
And, of course, many care homes have someone with nursing homes who can give injections. So, why not simply ship the vaccines there and let the staff handle it?
Plus there are people getting vaccinated in hospitals. Here in the US, there has been drive thru flu jabs for years. It takes literally 30 seconds (plus 10 minutes queuing behind some obscene G Wagon).
My guess is that vaccine availability will be a much bigger deal than vaccinating 1.4 million people a week.1 -
I'd think that is largely it, though no doubt some strange few are getting a weird liking for such governmental power, but once the death rate drops and a significant chunk are vaccinated with plans to roll out the rest, public support for strict measures will evaporate. People have been surprisingly understanding of very strict measures, but once the justification level reduces, it's not the Piers Corbyns of the world who will be calling for an end.MarqueeMark said:
Really? I suspect such people are few and far between.another_richard said:
Indeed.rottenborough said:
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.Andy_JS said:
It needs to be concentrated on people aged 70 (or maybe 65) and over rather than 50+.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summerstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
But I suspect some people rather like the lockdown concept with the government saying what and when people are allowed to do things.
Most just stoically subscribe to Churchill's line:
"If you're going through hell, keep going."
Though personally if you are going through hell, I'd suggest taking pictures. It'd make for a hell of an anecdote.0 -
Australia found that too.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:AlwaysSinging said:
I think they should get to 3 million per week, once they bring everything on stream. All the GP hubs will add up to a lot of jabs. And we're shortly going to be supply-limited anyway. Even assuming AZN and MRNA are approved and manufacturing doesn't have further hitches, from what I can see it's going to be on the order of 3-4 months before we receive 40-50 million doses anyway.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
My concern is that many people will see deaths dropping, which ought to happen rather rapidly once the over-80s are vaccinated, and let restrictions slip. Then the NHS is in big trouble because the limit is not, sad to say deaths. It's hospitalizations, and they won't drop nearly as fast until over 60s are mostly vaccinated, and even then a lot of 40-60 year olds will need hospital treatment.
--AS
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=343380 -
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
0 -
I will be very curious in the first non-covid winter whether, voluntarily, people wear masks a lot more.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.0 -
Yes. Everyone's running short of players. We paid £20 m for Ben Godfrey. He's never played centre back for us.Foxy said:
We missed Evans at the back. None of our back four tonight would have been considered first teamers at the start of the season.dixiedean said:
You were really insipid. How the heck are you fourth?Foxy said:
My only complaint is the pisspoor efforts of my team. We really struggle to breakdown a team that plays deep.TheScreamingEagles said:
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.
I say that as one who thinks how the heck are EFC fifth?
We have some tremendous performances, and some gutless ones, but to be fair, no team has been very consistent this strange season. I think Liverpool will win this.
As we have no fit full backs of any kind who Ancelloti trusts.0 -
He could start by allowing Brits with E-2 visas to re-enter the US from the UK.RobD said:
As secretary of transport? When has the last one of those done anything of note?kle4 said:
People cannot briefly focus on themselves when talking about their own appointment? Seems an appropriate time for it.RobD said:
He seems a tad self-centered.CarlottaVance said:
And it might be a flaw, he certainly doesn't lack for self confidence so he might have a bit too much of it, but even with that flaw, it can make a difference from too much ostentatous humility perhaps. He actually has to deliver in a significant job now (not to denigrate being a mayor), so it will be interesting to see how he does.0 -
I think it won't just be Asian students wearing them next winter.kle4 said:
I will be very curious in the first non-covid winter whether, voluntarily, people wear masks a lot more.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.0 -
I also hope that Covid sees the end of those absolute arseholes who come into work with contagious bugs, because they have some weird notion that the world can't possibly function without them.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
Stay home. Get better.1 -
12 million people over 65 so 24 million shots required.rottenborough said:
If over 65 are done then absolutely no reason to continue lockdowns.
There are some on here saying 3 million shots per week possible - that's going to be some jump from 130,000. Inoculating that many elderly, often semi-mobile time will take a lot more time than many think quite apart from the challenge of getting the vaccine to the people (or the people to the vaccine).0 -
Not sure if anything announced for Tiers in England while I was watching the footy. Has it?
Also saw this interesting analysis earlier:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1339214468866314245?s=191 -
(Anecdata alert)stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
Exactly I haven't had a proper cold all year, and most of the people I know say the same.0 -
According to https://www.icnarc.org/DataServices/Attachments/Download/31dcee60-ef3b-eb11-912c-00505601089b it's only just over 50% who are over 60 currently in intensive care. I could imagine that the admitted-but-not-in-ICU profile skews a little older, but not dramatically. I'm afraid that vaccinating down to age 65 or 60 is not going to remove enough load on hospitals to open up everything. We need to get down to age 40 (or at most 50), looks like.AlwaysSinging said:
I don't think vaccinating over 65s takes away 90% of hospital admissions, sadly. Perhaps only 50%, even assuming the vaccine is highly effective in preventing serious disease.londonpubman said:
Ok but if we can get the 65+ plus those with significant health problems vaccinated by end Feb say 15m people that largely takes away the exposure to deaths and hospital admissions by end March, 90% minimum.stodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
--AS
EDIT: on some quick googling, hopefully it's more like 75% actually. A link to definitive data would be welcome.
I notice that people who opposed lockdown in the first place now think that vaccinating the very oldest is a good reason to finish with lockdowns and restrictions. Who'd have thought?
--AS1 -
All these calculations are relying on folk turning up, and doing so on time. Amongst other things.
0 -
Here's the reported cases chart again, with the 11,000 cases for tomorrow included but distributed over multiple days to smooth it out.another_richard said:
Its a bit annoying when you discover something interesting but the story comes out before you can reveal it on PBMexicanpete said:
This was highlighted earlier by @Gaussiananother_richard said:I was going to ask whether there was an explanation for the missing 40k welsh tests.
But the BBC have given it:
An extra 11,000 positive Covid tests are currently missing from official figures in Wales, meaning recent cases are significantly higher than has been reported.
Public Health Wales (PHW) said that due to "planned maintenance" of some IT systems there was a "significant under-reporting" of positive tests.
The problem relates to tests processed in "lighthouse labs".
The Conservatives said the news was "staggering".
The 11,000 extra positive tests were mostly taken between 9 and 15 December. They will be added to PHW's dashboard, which records the figures, on Thursday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55105307
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales
But we already knew Wales is in serious trouble. Note the increasing upwards bend on the England line though.
0 -
I’m not sure what you might mean by ‘crowding out’.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
It suggests to me that the flu might simply be less infectious (as with several other respiratory viruses).
Interestingly, rhinovirus rates don’t seem to have been similarly affected.0 -
Similar with me and those I know.eristdoof said:
(Anecdata alert)stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
Exactly I haven't had a proper cold all year, and most of the people I know say the same.
Though I haven't had a proper cold for about three years and then got covid in the spring - I wonder if my immune system was 'out of practice'.0 -
That's not the only reason people do it of course. Plenty of places might say they want you to do that in such a situation, and even think they mean it, but react very differently if people actually do take 'too much' time off with bugs.MarqueeMark said:
I also hope that Covid sees the end of those absolute arseholes who come into work with contagious bugs, because they have some weird notion that the world can't possibly function without them.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
Stay home. Get better.0 -
Tier announcements tomorrow I think. Not expecting anywhere going down to 1. Big cities up north down from 3 to 2? Bold if so....Foxy said:Not sure if anything announced for Tiers in England while I was watching the footy. Has it?
Also saw this interesting analysis earlier:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1339214468866314245?s=190 -
I think you're being pessimistic. Its getting rolled out already in hospitals and it is reassuring to see more and more people say they know people who are getting the jab. My grandparents got a call today to say to come in to the hospital later this afternoon and got their jab today. My wife because of her work is getting hers on Saturday. It is getting rolled out.stodge said:
To clarify, 25.2 million people over 50 (according to 2019 estimates) represents 37.5% of the population (roughly). That's 50 million separate vaccinations in theory and 40 million based on an 80% take up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summer
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.
But running the numbers . . . GP surgeries are starting to roll it out soon but only if they're capable of taking a box of 970 defrosted vaccines that must all be used within 3 days. Even if a surgery only did 1 box a week that's 970 per GP in the scheme - if they did 2 in a week that's 1940 per surgery.
I believe I read somewhere that 1200 GP surgeries have signed up to be vaccination centres. At 1200 x 970 (minimum) per week that would be ~1.2 million per week just from the GP surgeries not even including hospitals or any other distribution centres.
Getting the vaccine doses is going to be harder than rolling them out. This is a 'needs must' situation so it will be rolled out ASAP because this is absolute gold dust. This is a magic elixir we have that will come before practically anything else.0 -
Agreed. And also an end to people expecting their employees to work through such bugs.MarqueeMark said:
I also hope that Covid sees the end of those absolute arseholes who come into work with contagious bugs, because they have some weird notion that the world can't possibly function without them.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
Stay home. Get better.3 -
I'm not sure that works for all businesses.Foxy said:Not sure if anything announced for Tiers in England while I was watching the footy. Has it?
Also saw this interesting analysis earlier:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1339214468866314245?s=19
Football clubs for starters.0 -
They are a lot more comfortable to wear in winter than in summer.Foxy said:
I think it won't just be Asian students wearing them next winter.kle4 said:
I will be very curious in the first non-covid winter whether, voluntarily, people wear masks a lot more.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.0 -
Yes, injuries seem particularly common in most teams this season. Certainly LCFC has suffered quite a few more than usual.dixiedean said:
Yes. Everyone's running short of players. We paid £20 m for Ben Godfrey. He's never played centre back for us.Foxy said:
We missed Evans at the back. None of our back four tonight would have been considered first teamers at the start of the season.dixiedean said:
You were really insipid. How the heck are you fourth?Foxy said:
My only complaint is the pisspoor efforts of my team. We really struggle to breakdown a team that plays deep.TheScreamingEagles said:
So many people I know couldn't watch it/had poor coverage of the match.Foxy said:
Yep.TheScreamingEagles said:LIVERPOOL!
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.
I say that as one who thinks how the heck are EFC fifth?
We have some tremendous performances, and some gutless ones, but to be fair, no team has been very consistent this strange season. I think Liverpool will win this.
As we have no fit full backs of any kind who Ancelloti trusts.
Salah played better tonight but I do think Covid has slowed down a few elite players a critical few percent.
Not a good week for my fantasy team the last couple of matches.
Worth noting that we will have played just 15 matches, rather than 19 on Boxing day. This is really end November in most seasons.0 -
I think it's tomorrow. Will be no change anywhere.MarqueeMark said:
Tier announcements tomorrow I think. Not expecting anywhere going down to 1. Big cities up north down from 3 to 2? Bold if so....Foxy said:Not sure if anything announced for Tiers in England while I was watching the footy. Has it?
Also saw this interesting analysis earlier:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1339214468866314245?s=190 -
It's much the same maths as the "herd immunity by winter" nonsense at the start of all this. As you say, a million a week sounds like a lot but that's actually a yearstodge said:Evening all
Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.0 -
Ah you mean all those people that dont get paid if they don't work or who's companys have strict policies about if you have more than x days off in six months you get hr on your back with a disciplinary.MarqueeMark said:
I also hope that Covid sees the end of those absolute arseholes who come into work with contagious bugs, because they have some weird notion that the world can't possibly function without them.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
Stay home. Get better.0 -
Interesting article.
Betfair's terms were actually fine. Markets should have been settled once safe harbour was reached though. Except Wisconsin and anything still related to it, there was still litigation going on there that could have potentially vitiated/overturned the result.
What was bizarre is that the popular vote market was held up till then. If any market isn't at the vagaries of lawyers and congress it's the actual numbers of votes - particularly when as per the 8th December all certified results were in.
I'm continuing to bet against the MAGAs with the Trump Exit date market.
The risks to losing the bet are both the house and the senate voting to overturn the result - the electoral count act of 1887 means that Mike Pence can't 'decide' Trump has won as happened with Thomas W Ferry in the 1877 election even to decide it for Hayes.
Pence will allow objections, if you look at his twitter feed he's stayed solidly silent except a few tautologies about counting lawful votes but he won't do anything outside of a norm.
About those objections, I fully expect the count to be challenged, Mo Brooks and Ron Johnson are MAGA loons of the highest order - but quite simply Trump doesn't have the congressional numbers.
The House obviously has a Democrat majority (No the seperate states business isn't reached at this stage); and the senate has a de facto Biden majority - 99 senators are entitled to meet, Purdue is not invited to the party however Loeffler can still show up as she was governor appointed and thus her term technically isn't over.
Taking the 48 inaugurated Democrat senators as read, we can add Romney (49) and Toomey (50). McConnell has also indicated he'd vote for Biden (It's constitutionally expected), & I expect there would be more. That's sufficient for a senate majority, not that it is needed as the governor certified slates are chosen if the congressional houses are split.
MAGA twitter/parler will probably pop when Pence reads out that Biden has won. If the electoral count is dragged out till the 20th January {Multiple 2 hour objections to each slate} (Yes really, I doubt it gets here though) then Trump (And Pence's) terms cease by law. Nancy Pelosi is the president at this point.
If anything untoward happens to either Harris or Biden, Trump's term still ceases on the 20th.
Once the count of January 6th is dealt with there's nothing left to do except await the inauguration. One of the justices will swear Biden in and Betfair should settle the market as 2021 for Trump at that point.
0 -
20 a day?rcs1000 said:
1.4 million shots a week sounds insane.stodge said:
To clarify, 25.2 million people over 50 (according to 2019 estimates) represents 37.5% of the population (roughly). That's 50 million separate vaccinations in theory and 40 million based on an 80% take up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summer
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.
But there are about 10,000 GP's practices in the UK.
To get to 200,000 a day requires each GP's practise to do... ooohhh... 20 a day. Why can't a GP practise do someone every 10 minutes for eight hours? That's about 50 vaccinations a day.
And, of course, many care homes have someone with nursing homes who can give injections. So, why not simply ship the vaccines there and let the staff handle it?
Plus there are people getting vaccinated in hospitals. Here in the US, there has been drive thru flu jabs for years. It takes literally 30 seconds (plus 10 minutes queuing behind some obscene G Wagon).
My guess is that vaccine availability will be a much bigger deal than vaccinating 1.4 million people a week.
With the Pfizer vaccine GP surgeries are only able to get the vaccine if they commit to 970 within 3 days.
That ramps up distribution a lot.0 -
Pain in the backside if you wear glasses though, from them fogging up.Nigelb said:
They are a lot more comfortable to wear in winter than in summer.Foxy said:
I think it won't just be Asian students wearing them next winter.kle4 said:
I will be very curious in the first non-covid winter whether, voluntarily, people wear masks a lot more.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.0 -
I don't think they've been crowded out by Covid, but have been suppressed by the very same measures we're using to suppress Covid. I think they'll quite happily coexist.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
0 -
The airline ticket model....does that mean if they are overbooked on the day, there will be calls for people to go to reception who wish to come back another day and will get a free upgrade to business class vaccination?rcs1000 said:
You overbook by 20%. These are solved probems.dixiedean said:All these calculations are relying on folk turning up, and doing so on time. Amongst other things.
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Indeed, a warm nose is quite pleasant!Nigelb said:
They are a lot more comfortable to wear in winter than in summer.Foxy said:
I think it won't just be Asian students wearing them next winter.kle4 said:
I will be very curious in the first non-covid winter whether, voluntarily, people wear masks a lot more.stodge said:
I've two thoughts on this - first, Covid has crowded out the other influenza viruses and will become the dominant virus for the next couple of decades.Nigelb said:
One piece of good news is that influenza levels are very low indeed for this time of the year:
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.0 -
Betfair still haven't settled the Arizona Senate market.0
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Newsnight: cases in Wales twice as high as before their circuit-breaker lockdown. What's going on there?0
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Has anyone ever established why it's 970, it's a slightly odd number from say a round 1,000?Philip_Thompson said:
20 a day?rcs1000 said:
1.4 million shots a week sounds insane.stodge said:
To clarify, 25.2 million people over 50 (according to 2019 estimates) represents 37.5% of the population (roughly). That's 50 million separate vaccinations in theory and 40 million based on an 80% take up.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Realistically I doubt 40% of the population with be vaccinated much before early summer
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.
But there are about 10,000 GP's practices in the UK.
To get to 200,000 a day requires each GP's practise to do... ooohhh... 20 a day. Why can't a GP practise do someone every 10 minutes for eight hours? That's about 50 vaccinations a day.
And, of course, many care homes have someone with nursing homes who can give injections. So, why not simply ship the vaccines there and let the staff handle it?
Plus there are people getting vaccinated in hospitals. Here in the US, there has been drive thru flu jabs for years. It takes literally 30 seconds (plus 10 minutes queuing behind some obscene G Wagon).
My guess is that vaccine availability will be a much bigger deal than vaccinating 1.4 million people a week.
With the Pfizer vaccine GP surgeries are only able to get the vaccine if they commit to 970 within 3 days.
That ramps up distribution a lot.0
