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The Small Print – politicalbetting.com
The Small Print – politicalbetting.com
Numerous sources in London and Brussels have said this is completely untrue.
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Numerous sources in London and Brussels have said this is completely untrue.
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Apologies for going off-topic so quickly but I'm pondering.
There are 25.2 million people over the age of 50 in the UK. If the plan is to vaccinate us all, that will mean just over 50 million shots.
We vaccinated 130,000 people last week - all right, I know it's all a bit limited but if it's 1 million shots per week it will still take a year. 2 million shots a week will take 6 months.
I know people talk about the annual influenza jab but that's 15 million shots only over a period of months - this is at least three times larger.
If the take-up is 80% (let's say) that's still 40 million separate shots - that still looks like 4 months minimum. It's a logistical challenge more than anything else and it will involve doing this in the middle of winter and getting to those who may not be mobile.
Much as I dislike Amazon for its exploitative employment and tax position, the quality of stream and commentary were superior to Sky and BT.
Amazon have acknowledged there's been huge problems tonight.
My concern is that many people will see deaths dropping, which ought to happen rather rapidly once the over-80s are vaccinated, and let restrictions slip. Then the NHS is in big trouble because the limit is not, sad to say deaths. It's hospitalizations, and they won't drop nearly as fast until over 60s are mostly vaccinated, and even then a lot of 40-60 year olds will need hospital treatment.
--AS
Also, given we are vaccinating by risk and not at random, I wonder at what point the main threat of the pandemic is gone anyway. Could be a modest fraction of the population. I never supported the idea that we should shield all over 60s and let everyone else live as normal because I thought it was impractical to implement, but vaccinating all that group and letting everyone live as normal might make sense - with everyone else getting vaccinated after most restrictions are lifted.
--AS
EDIT: on some quick googling, hopefully it's more like 75% actually. A link to definitive data would be welcome.
If the BAME take-up is a little less fair enough but it's still above 30 million separate vaccinations so double the annual flu jab. At a million shots per week that's 6 months - it would have to be 1.5-2 million per week to get it to the 3-4 month range.
I'm struggling with the logistics of 1.4 million shots per week or 200,000 per day or 8,333 per hour or 138 people per minute every minute. Just can't see it.
If the best we can do is 500,000 shots it will take 80 weeks or 18 months.
Gosh. The US lags behind Europe. And indeed many other nations by a long way on this.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1339330389559668736/photo/1
Boris will have to bring in the Tier 4 type lockdown from 28 Dec and say it's till 28 Feb minimum. Including secondary schools closed as I have posted here previously.
And we need to get the Oxford Astra Zeneca approved NOW
But the BBC have given it:
An extra 11,000 positive Covid tests are currently missing from official figures in Wales, meaning recent cases are significantly higher than has been reported.
Public Health Wales (PHW) said that due to "planned maintenance" of some IT systems there was a "significant under-reporting" of positive tests.
The problem relates to tests processed in "lighthouse labs".
The Conservatives said the news was "staggering".
The 11,000 extra positive tests were mostly taken between 9 and 15 December. They will be added to PHW's dashboard, which records the figures, on Thursday.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-55105307
Many months from that, as others are pointing out.
Also. Who will be administering these jabs? And the paperwork? Surely this will have a huge effect on other medical care?
https://twitter.com/JuliaHB1/status/1339326221788835844
But I suspect some people rather like the lockdown concept with the government saying what and when people are allowed to do things.
I want to hear more from ministers as to where that point is.
http://www.wales.nhs.uk/sites3/page.cfm?orgid=457&pid=34338
--AS
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/testing?areaType=nation&areaName=Wales
We're all quite pleasantly surprised the system seems to be working tbh.
I say that as one who thinks how the heck are EFC fifth?
This is a decent analysis:
https://slate.com/business/2020/12/pete-buttigieg-transportation-secretary-itll-be-fine.html
He’s perhaps not the most qualified, but he’s more likely than many of those who are actually to get stuff done. And he’s probably the most articulate member of the administration.
Let's say 7 working hours, that is 140 per day per nurse. 700 per working week.
So, 50 million shots over 4 months would require 50,000,000 / (17 x 700) = 4,202 nurses or other trained staff administering the vaccine. Not a crazy number.
And it might be a flaw, he certainly doesn't lack for self confidence so he might have a bit too much of it, but even with that flaw, it can make a difference from too much ostentatous humility perhaps. He actually has to deliver in a significant job now (not to denigrate being a mayor), so it will be interesting to see how he does.
We have some tremendous performances, and some gutless ones, but to be fair, no team has been very consistent this strange season. I think Liverpool will win this.
Sorting out Americas crumbling infrastructure for the modern age is a worthwhile task.
Most just stoically subscribe to Churchill's line:
"If you're going through hell, keep going."
But there are about 10,000 GP's practices in the UK.
To get to 200,000 a day requires each GP's practise to do... ooohhh... 20 a day. Why can't a GP practise do someone every 10 minutes for eight hours? That's about 50 vaccinations a day.
And, of course, many care homes have someone with nursing homes who can give injections. So, why not simply ship the vaccines there and let the staff handle it?
Plus there are people getting vaccinated in hospitals. Here in the US, there has been drive thru flu jabs for years. It takes literally 30 seconds (plus 10 minutes queuing behind some obscene G Wagon).
My guess is that vaccine availability will be a much bigger deal than vaccinating 1.4 million people a week.
Though personally if you are going through hell, I'd suggest taking pictures. It'd make for a hell of an anecdote.
Second, even the most basic public health precautions such as mask wearing, social distancing and the "fogging" of transport carriages have reduced the transmission of other viruses so as we fight Covid we fight all the others as well including the cold virus so I'm not surprised cases of other viruses are well down.
To be honest, some of the measures we have introduced to fight Covid such as mask wearing on public transport and the routine disinfecting of carriages seem sensible measures to continue even once Covid has finally been suppressed by (hopefully) mass vaccination.
Those who blether on about the economics might like to consider the notion the cost of keeping people healthier is a more productive economy with fewer people taking days sick.
As we have no fit full backs of any kind who Ancelloti trusts.
Stay home. Get better.
There are some on here saying 3 million shots per week possible - that's going to be some jump from 130,000. Inoculating that many elderly, often semi-mobile time will take a lot more time than many think quite apart from the challenge of getting the vaccine to the people (or the people to the vaccine).
Also saw this interesting analysis earlier:
https://twitter.com/foxinsoxuk/status/1339214468866314245?s=19
Exactly I haven't had a proper cold all year, and most of the people I know say the same.
I notice that people who opposed lockdown in the first place now think that vaccinating the very oldest is a good reason to finish with lockdowns and restrictions. Who'd have thought?
--AS
But we already knew Wales is in serious trouble. Note the increasing upwards bend on the England line though.
It suggests to me that the flu might simply be less infectious (as with several other respiratory viruses).
Interestingly, rhinovirus rates don’t seem to have been similarly affected.
Though I haven't had a proper cold for about three years and then got covid in the spring - I wonder if my immune system was 'out of practice'.
But running the numbers . . . GP surgeries are starting to roll it out soon but only if they're capable of taking a box of 970 defrosted vaccines that must all be used within 3 days. Even if a surgery only did 1 box a week that's 970 per GP in the scheme - if they did 2 in a week that's 1940 per surgery.
I believe I read somewhere that 1200 GP surgeries have signed up to be vaccination centres. At 1200 x 970 (minimum) per week that would be ~1.2 million per week just from the GP surgeries not even including hospitals or any other distribution centres.
Getting the vaccine doses is going to be harder than rolling them out. This is a 'needs must' situation so it will be rolled out ASAP because this is absolute gold dust. This is a magic elixir we have that will come before practically anything else.
Football clubs for starters.
Salah played better tonight but I do think Covid has slowed down a few elite players a critical few percent.
Not a good week for my fantasy team the last couple of matches.
Worth noting that we will have played just 15 matches, rather than 19 on Boxing day. This is really end November in most seasons.
Betfair's terms were actually fine. Markets should have been settled once safe harbour was reached though. Except Wisconsin and anything still related to it, there was still litigation going on there that could have potentially vitiated/overturned the result.
What was bizarre is that the popular vote market was held up till then. If any market isn't at the vagaries of lawyers and congress it's the actual numbers of votes - particularly when as per the 8th December all certified results were in.
I'm continuing to bet against the MAGAs with the Trump Exit date market.
The risks to losing the bet are both the house and the senate voting to overturn the result - the electoral count act of 1887 means that Mike Pence can't 'decide' Trump has won as happened with Thomas W Ferry in the 1877 election even to decide it for Hayes.
Pence will allow objections, if you look at his twitter feed he's stayed solidly silent except a few tautologies about counting lawful votes but he won't do anything outside of a norm.
About those objections, I fully expect the count to be challenged, Mo Brooks and Ron Johnson are MAGA loons of the highest order - but quite simply Trump doesn't have the congressional numbers.
The House obviously has a Democrat majority (No the seperate states business isn't reached at this stage); and the senate has a de facto Biden majority - 99 senators are entitled to meet, Purdue is not invited to the party however Loeffler can still show up as she was governor appointed and thus her term technically isn't over.
Taking the 48 inaugurated Democrat senators as read, we can add Romney (49) and Toomey (50). McConnell has also indicated he'd vote for Biden (It's constitutionally expected), & I expect there would be more. That's sufficient for a senate majority, not that it is needed as the governor certified slates are chosen if the congressional houses are split.
MAGA twitter/parler will probably pop when Pence reads out that Biden has won. If the electoral count is dragged out till the 20th January {Multiple 2 hour objections to each slate} (Yes really, I doubt it gets here though) then Trump (And Pence's) terms cease by law. Nancy Pelosi is the president at this point.
If anything untoward happens to either Harris or Biden, Trump's term still ceases on the 20th.
Once the count of January 6th is dealt with there's nothing left to do except await the inauguration. One of the justices will swear Biden in and Betfair should settle the market as 2021 for Trump at that point.
With the Pfizer vaccine GP surgeries are only able to get the vaccine if they commit to 970 within 3 days.
That ramps up distribution a lot.