The Electoral College Vote goes to Biden who, as expected, secures 306 votes – politicalbetting.com
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Well the UK position was very obviously for negotiation purposes, the EU seemed to truly believe that we should be aligned for all time or have the deal suspended at their whim.Richard_Nabavi said:This paper describes the EU and UK negotiating positions as at the 3rd June:
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8920/
Both sides have moved from those positions. You can decide for yourselves which of the two parties has moved most.
Let's put it this way: the UK's position was that the commitments on state aid and the 'level playing field' should not enforceable at all, and should not be subject to the FTA’s dispute resolution mechanism. You wouldn't have got any prizes in June for predicting that that wasn't going to fly.
I remember saying at the time that our position was 0/10 on th LPF against the EU position of 10/10. From what has been made public arbitration led tariffs on divergence looks like a 4-6/10 compromise depending on the specific wording, which is where I said we should end up. It's been a good negotiation from the government if we get there, May and Robbins continually tripped over their own feet and agreed to 9/10 positions favouring the EU and then failed to sell them to the party and country because it was very obvious they weren't acceptable.
We keep getting told by EU supporters that the EU is just repackaging the same old stuff but it isn't, their position is notably different and they've essentially accepted arbitration led tariffs on selected areas of divergence which is hugely, hugely different to unilateral suspension of the entire deal on any form of divergence.1 -
Perdue is a fellow grifter, so I'm sure it won't be a great surprise to him.Scott_xP said:0 -
It has taken all my restraint not to do a thread based on the fact that the UKIP candidate for the London Mayoral contest is called Peter Gammons.kle4 said:
I imagine someone else would suggest a Gammon. Not a fan of that one myself.Scott_xP said:
https://www.ukip.org/dr-peter-gammons-is-ukip-s-candidate-for-london-mayor0 -
I'm ok with you believing a LPF outcome which the EU judges sufficient to protect their SM is also a win for us. It's no doubt how Johnson will be presenting it. He has to. This now IS Brexit. It's happening. Many will be cockahoop and that's understandable. I'm not, but I won't get hacked off so long as people don't start banging on about the EU having "folded" due to anything big or clever from Johnson. Because that would be softhead bullshit which could not be allowed to pass.Philip_Thompson said:
If the UK is free to diverge but there's potential tariffs if we do then that is substantially closer to the UK's position.kinabalu said:
There is no suspense. It is written and as follows -Philip_Thompson said:
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?Richard_Nabavi said:
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.Mexicanpete said:
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take that.
No Deal is not an option for us so there will be a Deal. The Deal will have wins on Fish and ending FOM. On LPF there will be a draw, albeit closer in substance to the EU position than to ours (because of the balance of power). It will be SM privileges for us plus the right to diverge in the future BUT at the price potentially of less free market access (depending on what the divergence is and subject to a defined process).
If the above is not an accurate summary of the outcome, I will eat a massive piece of humble pie and also perform a truly onerous penance. I will vote Tory in the locals.
The EU's original position was that they wanted us to replicate their rules, no divergence.
That you consider that potential landing zone as being close to the EU's position shows just how successfully the UK has managed to move the Overton Window.0 -
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I agree and using 'folded' by either side is unwantedkinabalu said:
I'm ok with you believing a LPF outcome which the EU judges sufficient to protect their SM is also a win for us. It's no doubt how Johnson will be presenting it. He has to. This now IS Brexit. It's happening. Many will be cockahoop and that's understandable. I'm not, but I won't get hacked off so long as people don't start banging on about the EU having "folded" due to anything big or clever from Johnson. Because that would be softhead bullshit which could not be allowed to pass.Philip_Thompson said:
If the UK is free to diverge but there's potential tariffs if we do then that is substantially closer to the UK's position.kinabalu said:
There is no suspense. It is written and as follows -Philip_Thompson said:
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?Richard_Nabavi said:
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.Mexicanpete said:
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?Richard_Nabavi said:
I'll take that.
No Deal is not an option for us so there will be a Deal. The Deal will have wins on Fish and ending FOM. On LPF there will be a draw, albeit closer in substance to the EU position than to ours (because of the balance of power). It will be SM privileges for us plus the right to diverge in the future BUT at the price potentially of less free market access (depending on what the divergence is and subject to a defined process).
If the above is not an accurate summary of the outcome, I will eat a massive piece of humble pie and also perform a truly onerous penance. I will vote Tory in the locals.
The EU's original position was that they wanted us to replicate their rules, no divergence.
That you consider that potential landing zone as being close to the EU's position shows just how successfully the UK has managed to move the Overton Window.
Time to move on (if a deal is done )0 -
Which I find surprising given that, if we turn our attention to the other issue of the day, the people you are trusting to deliver such a miracle from the disaster of Brexit are the very same people who have got both strategy and tactics wrong at every turn in responding to the Coronavirus.Casino_Royale said:
I've seen us be more nimble on foreign policy and on approving the vaccine (yes, I know technically we could have done in the EU too) since we've left - to the West's benefit on the former, and to the EU's benefit on the latter as the competition has sped up their approval too. I've seen the bones of a more sustainable and ecologically-friendly agricultural and fisheries policy. I've seen ideas of reforming our public procurement process and reviewing our financial and digital regulations. I've seen us be more ambitious on our trade deals with the RoW. And, now, we set the terms of how people come here from anywhere in the world.IanB2 said:
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.Casino_Royale said:
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?IanB2 said:
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.Casino_Royale said:I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.0 -
I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.
What does this mean??1 -
Yes, it's terrible. And I've no reason to doubt it's true. Not specifically related but as a general point, I do hope Starmer does not get so scared of committing "culture war" offences against the Red Wall that he moves the party to almost neutral on these issues. I'm not saying I think he will, just stressing that I hope he won't.WhisperingOracle said:
That is an appalling story, if anywhere near correct. Autistic and a learning age of six, and being deported back to Jamaica for stealing a friend's mobile phone despite having lived here since the age of four. The consequences of the rock-bottom "foreign criminals" cynicism from both New Labour and the Tories are clearly not in any way over.kinabalu said:
Seconded -TheScreamingEagles said:Defund the Home Office.
Revealed: shocking death toll of asylum seekers in Home Office accommodation
FoI response shows 29 people died – five times as many as lost their lives in perilous Channel crossings
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/15/revealed-shocking-death-toll-of-asylum-seekers-in-home-office-accommodation
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/15/britain-deport-young-black-men-justice-osime-brown0 -
Your on the wrong thread?Casino_Royale said:I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.
What does this mean??0 -
No Deal was never an option for the UK.MaxPB said:
Tbh, we're going to get the "capitulation" narrative if there's a deal. Some people need something to cling to. From here it looks as though there's a pretty fair negotiation happening with both sides giving ground to get a satisfactory outcome. It's what we've all been waiting for since 2016, just disappointing it's taken until now for the EU to start that process and negotiate from the original mandate which was never going to be acceptable and lead to no deal.kinabalu said:
I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?Casino_Royale said:I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.0 -
Casino_Royale said:
Ha! I very much doubt it ;-)kinabalu said:
I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?Casino_Royale said:I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
- I know. As if.
Fact, I'm limbering up.0 -
Not a lot if you are still here to tell the tail.bigjohnowls said:
Your on the wrong thread?Casino_Royale said:I just spent 10 minutes on the phone to a IT helpdesk guy at HMRC called John McClean - a week before Christmas.
What does this mean??0 -
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