Let's be honest if Labour had made this move and was seemingly about to U-turn some here would be jumping up and down and shouting "U-turn! U-turn!".
Hypocrisy as always.
Labour have made this move. 🤦🏻♂️
Who do you think runs Wales?
I'm not sure what Welsh Labour has to do with Keir Starmer.
Basically everything. It is just another part of the Labour Party, with someone elected to be "Leader of Welsh Labour" since 2016. And a regional office which runs Welsh Labour political stuff.
(That surprised me - I thought there was some institutional separation).
"Welsh Labour is formally part of the Labour Party. It is not separately registered with the Electoral Commission under the terms of the Political Parties, Elections and Referendums Act.[8] In 2016, the Labour Party Conference voted for the office of leader of Welsh Labour to exist; as such, Mark Drakeford is now leader of Welsh Labour." https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Welsh_Labour
You are completely correct -- thanks for pointing this out.
Welsh Labour is NOT a separate party. It is is a ridiculous and shameful re-branding of part of the Labour Party.
Until recently, this was the Chair of Welsh Labour
Gosh, she lives in the Welsh city of Bolton. Basically, Welsh Labour consists of people like Wulfrun_Phil, who live nowhere near Wales -- but they know what is best for Wales.
That is why Wales (after 20 years of Labour rule) is poorer than it has ever been.
And let's not forget the wretched & pointless Welsh Liberal Democrats -- the leader of the Welsh Liberal Democrat lives in Richmond, the Welsh suburb of London.
The electoral legislation for Scotland has an exemption allowing the Labour Party to call itself 'Scottish' in Scotland, IIRC - rather remarkably. Is there anything like that for Wales?
Yes, they are allowed to call themselves Welsh Labour/Llafur Cymru.
But, I think it is all just UK Labour, no? It is just a marketing policy.
Isn't that the same for the Welsh Conservatives. When I lived in Cardiff North they had a titular head office on Merthyr Road, Whitchurch, and all their documentation throughout Wales, as I recall, used that address.
The diminutive Alun however, always seemed to take his orders from Downing Street.
I haven't got the foggiest idea; Welsh Tories are boring (but I am sure someone can correct me on that :-) .
Though I am sure it is less complicated than the organisation of the Lib Dems.
And less exciting than the Welsh Greens, especially one of their colourful Deputy Leaders who used to seem to have as many Jags as Prezza.
I have had the pleasure of meeting several senior Welsh Tories over the years. I regularly get to converse with Alun Cairns. My late father used to speak with him in Welsh. Cairns is quite a club-able chap until his partisanship gets the better of him. A lot less stuffy than his Conservative predecessor Walter Sweeney.
I used to meet Gwilym Jones through an employee who was at the same Masonic lodge as him, when he was my MP. He was a very nice guy.
I have also met Nicholas Bennett, and before him Nick Edwards many years ago, they were as I recall very "upright". I met Michael Ancram on a recycling site in Brecon during GE2005, he was very pleasant- but that doesn't count as he was an English MP!
Also a Scots peer, Marquess of Lothian ...! But not for purposes of sitting in the HoL, though he is a life peer as well, Baron Kerr of Monteviot.
Indeed, but he didn't sound anything like Billy Connolly.
An Ampleforth, Christ Church andf Bullingdon alumnus?! Borders perhaps, but surely not West Central Belt urban demotic Scots.
I didn't detect the merest hint of a Scottish burr.
I am writing to request a PB ban on "Third Wave" nonsense, please? It is the Second Wave hitting different parts of the country. Thank you for your consideration in this matter.
Can we have a PB ban on "Third Wave" nonsense, please? It is the Second Wave hitting different parts of the country. Thank you for your consideration in this matter.
I think it's the Home Counties clutching their collective pearls at having to wear something that is pre-used in the North.
Ah but they aren't though. This is a special, better class of mutation. Which spreads more easily, without need of the feckless, irresponsible behaviour of dirty Northerners.
I am writing to request a PB ban on "Third Wave" nonsense, please? It is the Second Wave hitting different parts of the country. Thank you for your consideration in this matter.
Depending on how far you think cases have to recede to qualify for a new wave, Wales might have a valid claim to a third wave.
Wait until you hear my economic policies. You'll flee for the hills.
I'm still the fiscally dry conservative I've always been.
Buying those £400+ trainers you linked to earlier this morning doesn't smack of fiscal dryness to me! Soaking wet, really.
I'm debt free, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Plus they are comfortable and I'm helping the economy, the epitome of Conservatism.
Debt free? You should gear up at these interest rates!!
I was raised by a mother who views debt, other than mortgages, as the eighth deadliest sin.
I save and invest and save these days.
I was very lucky in life, I finished university, got a job in London, I was going to rent, my mother decided the best thing was for me to buy a house with my father on the mortgage.
Buying a house in London in 2000 and selling it in 2007 really did set me up for life and allowed me to buy even better houses in the desolate North for the fraction of the cost.
I worked in London 1999 - 2002. I was looking for a new flat after 7 months and a colleague suggested I buy a new build apartment in Docklands, which at the time were £140kish. Would have had to do a self-declaration mortgage but everyone was doing it.
I didn't because (a) I hated London and (b) thought that my "purchase" essentially only buys a front door key.
How much are 1 beds in Docklands now? OK not now now, back at the beginning of the year.
Big range, 350k upwards, maybe £450k median but double that not unheard of.
I sold my house in SE London when I retired - £249,000. On Zoopla today it was £934,000 - £1.03million.
One important finding is that they have some (limited) evidence that it reduces asymptomatic infections. If so, I would expect that the same is probably also true of the Pfizer vaccine at least (and maybe others). Which looks like some welcome good news.
And the other bit of good news is that, like Pfizer, they found that the vaccine began to be effective very early (within 14 days of first jab they were seeing fewer cases in the vaccine group than the placebo group).
I have a feeling Gavin Williamson's demonstration of genius earlier today, might not stand up to scrutiny over the next few days.
He's very poor. Improving a bit, but it'll take a long time for him to be adequate.
Theresa May liked him I think. He was some fantastically short price to be next PM. (Fantastically short counts for him as much as everyone at less than 1000/1, but he was far shorter)
He must have good points. Nobody can be quite so bad as he apparently seems.
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?
16k new cases in England....what is goinf on with Wales? The numbers have been bollocks the past few days. No way they have gone from 2k+ daily cases to.a few 100.
I thought it was just some random nutter at first. Then I saw the top hat and thought, "wow - this guy is serious".
It took me some time to realise there was no cigarette - hat, evil tone, hints of velvet, little puffs of smoke... It all fitted until I realised he was just breathing somewhere cold.
Wait until you hear my economic policies. You'll flee for the hills.
I'm still the fiscally dry conservative I've always been.
Buying those £400+ trainers you linked to earlier this morning doesn't smack of fiscal dryness to me! Soaking wet, really.
I'm debt free, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Plus they are comfortable and I'm helping the economy, the epitome of Conservatism.
Debt free? You should gear up at these interest rates!!
I was raised by a mother who views debt, other than mortgages, as the eighth deadliest sin.
I save and invest and save these days.
I was very lucky in life, I finished university, got a job in London, I was going to rent, my mother decided the best thing was for me to buy a house with my father on the mortgage.
Buying a house in London in 2000 and selling it in 2007 really did set me up for life and allowed me to buy even better houses in the desolate North for the fraction of the cost.
I worked in London 1999 - 2002. I was looking for a new flat after 7 months and a colleague suggested I buy a new build apartment in Docklands, which at the time were £140kish. Would have had to do a self-declaration mortgage but everyone was doing it.
I didn't because (a) I hated London and (b) thought that my "purchase" essentially only buys a front door key.
How much are 1 beds in Docklands now? OK not now now, back at the beginning of the year.
Big range, 350k upwards, maybe £450k median but double that not unheard of.
I sold my house in SE London when I retired - £249,000. On Zoopla today it was £934,000 - £1.03million.
If you put the entire £249,000 on Conservatives most seats in Senedd in 2021, you might recoup your losses. There again, you may also find yourself homeless if my tip fails.
Even before May gave Gav a prime job, he was a whip...it is totally unfathomable how he ever got any role at all.
He must have some good about him.
Ian Blackford I long regarded in a dim light. However I saw an interview with him where he was at home and he seemed a really lovely chap. Views are all wrong of course, but away from the daft pontification of Westminster.
My hunch is that Williamson is magnificently toady. Lord knows what you might do with such a 'skill' though.
During the Tory leadership contest he was top of my list of people I didn't want to win (and of course most didn't stand) - Steve Baker next, then the general nut-jobs, then Gove (untrustworthy).
16k new cases in England....what is goinf on with Wales? The numbers have been bollocks the past few days. No way they have gone from 2k+ daily cases to.a few 100.
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?
16k new cases in England....what is goinf on with Wales? The numbers have been bollocks the past few days. No way they have gone from 2k+ daily cases to.a few 100.
Still the same "planned maintenance" in Wales. This guy thinks the missing cases might all show up tomorrow:
If he's right, I think it will be somewhere between 5000 and 8000 depending on whether the growth has continued as before or whether alert level 3 is starting to have an effect.
Reported cases in England have been weirdly constant with six days in a row at 17k or thereabouts (although they're all big increases on the previous week).
Wait until you hear my economic policies. You'll flee for the hills.
I'm still the fiscally dry conservative I've always been.
Buying those £400+ trainers you linked to earlier this morning doesn't smack of fiscal dryness to me! Soaking wet, really.
I'm debt free, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Plus they are comfortable and I'm helping the economy, the epitome of Conservatism.
Debt free? You should gear up at these interest rates!!
I was raised by a mother who views debt, other than mortgages, as the eighth deadliest sin.
I save and invest and save these days.
I was very lucky in life, I finished university, got a job in London, I was going to rent, my mother decided the best thing was for me to buy a house with my father on the mortgage.
Buying a house in London in 2000 and selling it in 2007 really did set me up for life and allowed me to buy even better houses in the desolate North for the fraction of the cost.
I worked in London 1999 - 2002. I was looking for a new flat after 7 months and a colleague suggested I buy a new build apartment in Docklands, which at the time were £140kish. Would have had to do a self-declaration mortgage but everyone was doing it.
I didn't because (a) I hated London and (b) thought that my "purchase" essentially only buys a front door key.
How much are 1 beds in Docklands now? OK not now now, back at the beginning of the year.
Big range, 350k upwards, maybe £450k median but double that not unheard of.
I sold my house in SE London when I retired - £249,000. On Zoopla today it was £934,000 - £1.03million.
If you put the entire £249,000 on Conservatives most seats in Senedd in 2021, you might recoup your losses. There again, you may also find yourself homeless if my tip fails.
No - I used 149000 to buy a nice place in the North. Now worth approx £300,000.
Wait until you hear my economic policies. You'll flee for the hills.
I'm still the fiscally dry conservative I've always been.
Buying those £400+ trainers you linked to earlier this morning doesn't smack of fiscal dryness to me! Soaking wet, really.
I'm debt free, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Plus they are comfortable and I'm helping the economy, the epitome of Conservatism.
Debt free? You should gear up at these interest rates!!
I was raised by a mother who views debt, other than mortgages, as the eighth deadliest sin.
I save and invest and save these days.
I was very lucky in life, I finished university, got a job in London, I was going to rent, my mother decided the best thing was for me to buy a house with my father on the mortgage.
Buying a house in London in 2000 and selling it in 2007 really did set me up for life and allowed me to buy even better houses in the desolate North for the fraction of the cost.
I worked in London 1999 - 2002. I was looking for a new flat after 7 months and a colleague suggested I buy a new build apartment in Docklands, which at the time were £140kish. Would have had to do a self-declaration mortgage but everyone was doing it.
I didn't because (a) I hated London and (b) thought that my "purchase" essentially only buys a front door key.
How much are 1 beds in Docklands now? OK not now now, back at the beginning of the year.
Big range, 350k upwards, maybe £450k median but double that not unheard of.
I sold my house in SE London when I retired - £249,000. On Zoopla today it was £934,000 - £1.03million.
If you put the entire £249,000 on Conservatives most seats in Senedd in 2021, you might recoup your losses. There again, you may also find yourself homeless if my tip fails.
No - I used 149000 to buy a nice place in the North. Now worth approx £300,000.
"A nice place in the North". Isn't that an oxymoron?
I thought he hired a load of superforecasters. Surely they could have predicted this?
Cummings got a promotion, not a pay rise. (Well, a promotion to a higher band with more money but technically, that's what counts and who could hold it against him?)
16k new cases in England....what is goinf on with Wales? The numbers have been bollocks the past few days. No way they have gone from 2k+ daily cases to.a few 100.
Still the same "planned maintenance" in Wales. This guy thinks the missing cases might all show up tomorrow:
If he's right, I think it will be somewhere between 5000 and 8000 depending on whether the growth has continued as before or whether alert level 3 is starting to have an effect.
Reported cases in England have been weirdly constant with six days in a row at 17k or thereabouts (although they're all big increases on the previous week).
That would make it a good day to "Cancel Christmas" and announce nobody going down a tier. And hope no one notices the fine detail. Or is that overly cynical?
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?
I'll take that.
There is no suspense. It is written and as follows -
No Deal is not an option for us so there will be a Deal. The Deal will have wins on Fish and ending FOM. On LPF there will be a draw, albeit closer in substance to the EU position than to ours (because of the balance of power). It will be SM privileges for us plus the right to diverge in the future BUT at the price potentially of less free market access (depending on what the divergence is and subject to a defined process).
If the above is not an accurate summary of the outcome, I will eat a massive piece of humble pie and also perform a truly onerous penance. I will vote Tory in the locals.
Wait until you hear my economic policies. You'll flee for the hills.
I'm still the fiscally dry conservative I've always been.
Buying those £400+ trainers you linked to earlier this morning doesn't smack of fiscal dryness to me! Soaking wet, really.
I'm debt free, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Plus they are comfortable and I'm helping the economy, the epitome of Conservatism.
Debt free? You should gear up at these interest rates!!
I was raised by a mother who views debt, other than mortgages, as the eighth deadliest sin.
I save and invest and save these days.
I was very lucky in life, I finished university, got a job in London, I was going to rent, my mother decided the best thing was for me to buy a house with my father on the mortgage.
Buying a house in London in 2000 and selling it in 2007 really did set me up for life and allowed me to buy even better houses in the desolate North for the fraction of the cost.
I worked in London 1999 - 2002. I was looking for a new flat after 7 months and a colleague suggested I buy a new build apartment in Docklands, which at the time were £140kish. Would have had to do a self-declaration mortgage but everyone was doing it.
I didn't because (a) I hated London and (b) thought that my "purchase" essentially only buys a front door key.
How much are 1 beds in Docklands now? OK not now now, back at the beginning of the year.
Big range, 350k upwards, maybe £450k median but double that not unheard of.
I sold my house in SE London when I retired - £249,000. On Zoopla today it was £934,000 - £1.03million.
If you put the entire £249,000 on Conservatives most seats in Senedd in 2021, you might recoup your losses. There again, you may also find yourself homeless if my tip fails.
No - I used 149000 to buy a nice place in the North. Now worth approx £300,000.
When you say 'A nice place in the North', do you mean 'Altrincham' - or are prices not that much cheaper and you only bought a single property?
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
16k new cases in England....what is goinf on with Wales? The numbers have been bollocks the past few days. No way they have gone from 2k+ daily cases to.a few 100.
Still the same "planned maintenance" in Wales. This guy thinks the missing cases might all show up tomorrow:
If he's right, I think it will be somewhere between 5000 and 8000 depending on whether the growth has continued as before or whether alert level 3 is starting to have an effect.
Reported cases in England have been weirdly constant with six days in a row at 17k or thereabouts (although they're all big increases on the previous week).
That would make it a good day to "Cancel Christmas" and announce nobody going down a tier. And hope no one notices the fine detail. Or is that overly cynical?
I thought he hired a load of superforecasters. Surely they could have predicted this?
Cummings got a promotion, not a pay rise. (Well, a promotion to a higher band with more money but technically, that's what counts and who could hold it against him?)
And he still earnt £50,000 less per year than Marcus Rashford gets in a week.
I thought it was just some random nutter at first. Then I saw the top hat and thought, "wow - this guy is serious".
It took me some time to realise there was no cigarette - hat, evil tone, hints of velvet, little puffs of smoke... It all fitted until I realised he was just breathing somewhere cold.
To be honest, I've some sympathy with Trump backers.
If Betfair had paid out promptly when they should have done, in accordance with their own rules, there could not have been the slightest question about their actions. As soon as they dithered and started talking about ECVs, challenges, recounts, court actions, concession and all the stuff that was never in the rules, they opened themselves up to this kind of dispute. They were encouraging the nutters like the man in the hat.
Betfair certainly deserve to reap what they have sown.
Wait until you hear my economic policies. You'll flee for the hills.
I'm still the fiscally dry conservative I've always been.
Buying those £400+ trainers you linked to earlier this morning doesn't smack of fiscal dryness to me! Soaking wet, really.
I'm debt free, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Plus they are comfortable and I'm helping the economy, the epitome of Conservatism.
Debt free? You should gear up at these interest rates!!
I was raised by a mother who views debt, other than mortgages, as the eighth deadliest sin.
I save and invest and save these days.
I was very lucky in life, I finished university, got a job in London, I was going to rent, my mother decided the best thing was for me to buy a house with my father on the mortgage.
Buying a house in London in 2000 and selling it in 2007 really did set me up for life and allowed me to buy even better houses in the desolate North for the fraction of the cost.
I worked in London 1999 - 2002. I was looking for a new flat after 7 months and a colleague suggested I buy a new build apartment in Docklands, which at the time were £140kish. Would have had to do a self-declaration mortgage but everyone was doing it.
I didn't because (a) I hated London and (b) thought that my "purchase" essentially only buys a front door key.
How much are 1 beds in Docklands now? OK not now now, back at the beginning of the year.
Big range, 350k upwards, maybe £450k median but double that not unheard of.
I sold my house in SE London when I retired - £249,000. On Zoopla today it was £934,000 - £1.03million.
If you put the entire £249,000 on Conservatives most seats in Senedd in 2021, you might recoup your losses. There again, you may also find yourself homeless if my tip fails.
No - I used 149000 to buy a nice place in the North. Now worth approx £300,000.
When you say 'A nice place in the North', do you mean 'Altrincham' - or are prices not that much cheaper and you only bought a single property?
Altrincham? How common. Surely you mean Hale Barns darling.
Wait until you hear my economic policies. You'll flee for the hills.
I'm still the fiscally dry conservative I've always been.
Buying those £400+ trainers you linked to earlier this morning doesn't smack of fiscal dryness to me! Soaking wet, really.
I'm debt free, I'm allowed the occasional indulgence.
Plus they are comfortable and I'm helping the economy, the epitome of Conservatism.
Debt free? You should gear up at these interest rates!!
I was raised by a mother who views debt, other than mortgages, as the eighth deadliest sin.
I save and invest and save these days.
I was very lucky in life, I finished university, got a job in London, I was going to rent, my mother decided the best thing was for me to buy a house with my father on the mortgage.
Buying a house in London in 2000 and selling it in 2007 really did set me up for life and allowed me to buy even better houses in the desolate North for the fraction of the cost.
I worked in London 1999 - 2002. I was looking for a new flat after 7 months and a colleague suggested I buy a new build apartment in Docklands, which at the time were £140kish. Would have had to do a self-declaration mortgage but everyone was doing it.
I didn't because (a) I hated London and (b) thought that my "purchase" essentially only buys a front door key.
How much are 1 beds in Docklands now? OK not now now, back at the beginning of the year.
Big range, 350k upwards, maybe £450k median but double that not unheard of.
I sold my house in SE London when I retired - £249,000. On Zoopla today it was £934,000 - £1.03million.
If you put the entire £249,000 on Conservatives most seats in Senedd in 2021, you might recoup your losses. There again, you may also find yourself homeless if my tip fails.
No - I used 149000 to buy a nice place in the North. Now worth approx £300,000.
"A nice place in the North". Isn't that an oxymoron?
No. Lots of trees, no air pollution, stunning walks in every direction , and no 'sarf lunneners'.
I thought he hired a load of superforecasters. Surely they could have predicted this?
Cummings got a promotion, not a pay rise. (Well, a promotion to a higher band with more money but technically, that's what counts and who could hold it against him?)
And he still earnt £50,000 less per year than Marcus Rashford gets in a week.
How much of Marcus Rashford's salary is paid for by the taxypayer?
It is interesting how very quiet Brexit talks have gone. Gone are all thr briefings of either side being horrrid.
Indeed, it's definitely a good sign. The Times article today on it had a lot of good news in it. The main concession from the EU is that they are now ready to accept arbitration led tariffs on any future divergence, it's basically the major UK demand on the LPF. It clears the way for a really good initial deal and now we are, IMO, going to sign one.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
I thought he hired a load of superforecasters. Surely they could have predicted this?
Cummings got a promotion, not a pay rise. (Well, a promotion to a higher band with more money but technically, that's what counts and who could hold it against him?)
And he still earnt £50,000 less per year than Marcus Rashford gets in a week.
I have a feeling Gavin Williamson's demonstration of genius earlier today, might not stand up to scrutiny over the next few days.
He's very poor. Improving a bit, but it'll take a long time for him to be adequate.
Theresa May liked him I think. He was some fantastically short price to be next PM. (Fantastically short counts for him as much as everyone at less than 1000/1, but he was far shorter)
He must have good points. Nobody can be quite so bad as he apparently seems.
My wife has met him and says he is extremely nice in person (she is by no means a fan of Tories in general). I think that people underestimate how useful it is to be pleasant in one's dealings with other people.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
She really has done an amazingly good job. Most underrated member of the Cabinet by far.
Turkey's can't be grandfathered can it? Because of their customs union with the EU?
I have a feeling Gavin Williamson's demonstration of genius earlier today, might not stand up to scrutiny over the next few days.
He's very poor. Improving a bit, but it'll take a long time for him to be adequate.
Theresa May liked him I think. He was some fantastically short price to be next PM. (Fantastically short counts for him as much as everyone at less than 1000/1, but he was far shorter)
He must have good points. Nobody can be quite so bad as he apparently seems.
My wife has met him and says he is extremely nice in person (she is by no means a fan of Tories in general). I think that people underestimate how useful it is to be pleasant in one's dealings with other people.
Nevertheless he is threatening councils with all sorts of severe legal sanctions for having the temerity to shift teaching online for the last few days of term, at the very same time as the clown and the rest of them are sitting down pondering whether to ban Christmas.
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?
I'll take that.
There is no suspense. It is written and as follows -
No Deal is not an option for us so there will be a Deal. The Deal will have wins on Fish and ending FOM. On LPF there will be a draw, albeit closer in substance to the EU position than to ours (because of the balance of power). It will be SM privileges for us plus the right to diverge in the future BUT at the price potentially of less free market access (depending on what the divergence is and subject to a defined process).
If the above is not an accurate summary of the outcome, I will eat a massive piece of humble pie and also perform a truly onerous penance. I will vote Tory in the locals.
If the UK is free to diverge but there's potential tariffs if we do then that is substantially closer to the UK's position.
The EU's original position was that they wanted us to replicate their rules, no divergence.
That you consider that potential landing zone as being close to the EU's position shows just how successfully the UK has managed to move the Overton Window.
I thought he hired a load of superforecasters. Surely they could have predicted this?
Cummings got a promotion, not a pay rise. (Well, a promotion to a higher band with more money but technically, that's what counts and who could hold it against him?)
And he still earnt £50,000 less per year than Marcus Rashford gets in a week.
There might be a point here but it's hard to discern what precisely it is.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
Interesting that she also confirms we will seek accession to the CPTPP in early 2021, that would cover a lot of our trade with Australia and New Zealand meaning we can use that as a precursor to a full trade deal with both. By my reckoning with the UK the CPTPP trade bloc will account for ~17% of global GDP.
We could end 2021 with a really great external trade position if we get this deal done with the EU.
16k new cases in England....what is goinf on with Wales? The numbers have been bollocks the past few days. No way they have gone from 2k+ daily cases to.a few 100.
Still the same "planned maintenance" in Wales. This guy thinks the missing cases might all show up tomorrow:
If he's right, I think it will be somewhere between 5000 and 8000 depending on whether the growth has continued as before or whether alert level 3 is starting to have an effect.
Reported cases in England have been weirdly constant with six days in a row at 17k or thereabouts (although they're all big increases on the previous week).
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
She really has done an amazingly good job. Most underrated member of the Cabinet by far.
Turkey's can't be grandfathered can it? Because of their customs union with the EU?
Yes, I think it hinges off the back of the EU one. I imagine it will follow in January or February:
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
Interesting that she also confirms we will seek accession to the CPTPP in early 2021, that would cover a lot of our trade with Australia and New Zealand meaning we can use that as a precursor to a full trade deal with both. By my reckoning with the UK the CPTPP trade bloc will account for ~17% of global GDP.
We could end 2021 with a really great external trade position if we get this deal done with the EU.
The UK with an EU FTA and CPTPP membership will be real "cake and eat it" territory.
It is exciting what the next few years could bring.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
Interestingly if the UK joined the CPTPP then I believe the CPTPP would overtake the EU as the world's second largest free trade area wouldn't it? The EU would I believe drop down to third.
Very good news about Moderna vaccine. (I know we'll not greatly benefit in the UK)
The more vaccines out there the better for all sorts of reasons. One (and not a particularly important one behind the reduction in human suffering) is that if other countries are getting the Moderna vaccine then there will be more of the others for those countries who are not signed up to that one.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
What are the restrictions on services, i.e. what are we giving up in exchange for ending FoM?
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?
I'll take that.
There is no suspense. It is written and as follows -
No Deal is not an option for us so there will be a Deal. The Deal will have wins on Fish and ending FOM. On LPF there will be a draw, albeit closer in substance to the EU position than to ours (because of the balance of power). It will be SM privileges for us plus the right to diverge in the future BUT at the price potentially of less free market access (depending on what the divergence is and subject to a defined process).
If the above is not an accurate summary of the outcome, I will eat a massive piece of humble pie and also perform a truly onerous penance. I will vote Tory in the locals.
Interesting to me is that where the EU started was any divergence would result in a suspension of the whole deal, then that moved to lightning tariffs, then it moved to the ratchet, then it became the reciprocal ratchet, then it became the reciprocal ratchet with tariff rules written into the treaty and now it's a reciprocal ratchet with arbitration led tariff setting.
Where we started was freedom to diverge with no recourse to tariffs, then it became freedom to diverge but unilateral right for either party to set tariffs, now we're at freedom to diverge with either party following arbitration set tariffs.
The LPF will look a lot more like what we've been proposing from the start, a baseline minimum level, non-regression and arbitrator led tariffs when necessary.
Re: Glasgow: "The people who died were Mercy Baguma, from Uganda, who was found dead with her toddler by her side, Adnan Olbeh, from Syria, and Badreddin Abadlla Adam, who was shot dead by police, after he stabbed six people including a police officer."
This is definitely a statistic that needs more information adding.
I expect there is a high suicide rate. Whether that's because the UK turns out not to be the answer to all their problems or because they get left in Home Office or Court limbo for too long is another question...
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
What are the restrictions on services, i.e. what are we giving up in exchange for ending FoM?
Tweed mainly. Illegal to make it now. Also being tweedy will land you in jail. I'm off to spend 100 years as I post. I've never even owned any tweed! I did have a tweedy thought once mind.
That is an appalling story, if anywhere near correct. Autistic and a learning age of six, and being deported back to Jamaica for stealing a friend's mobile phone despite having lived here since the age of four. The consequences of the rock-bottom "foreign criminals" cynicism from both New Labour and the Tories are clearly not in any way over.
Interestingly if the UK joined the CPTPP then I believe the CPTPP would overtake the EU as the world's second largest free trade area wouldn't it? The EU would I believe drop down to third.
The CPTPP isn't as ambitious as the EU in terms of the market, but that's why it's appealing. I don't think they're comparable, it's why we need separate trade deals with the countries in it to get better free trade terms.
Have the ERG been hypnotised... or injected with Bill Gates' mind altering Covid vaccine?
I imagine they've been shown @Philip_Thompson's posts from here, which must have reassured them that Boris has achieved a brilliant success in facing down those pesky Eurocrats.
High praise. So you're acknowledging I was right all along?
I'll take that.
There is no suspense. It is written and as follows -
No Deal is not an option for us so there will be a Deal. The Deal will have wins on Fish and ending FOM. On LPF there will be a draw, albeit closer in substance to the EU position than to ours (because of the balance of power). It will be SM privileges for us plus the right to diverge in the future BUT at the price potentially of less free market access (depending on what the divergence is and subject to a defined process).
If the above is not an accurate summary of the outcome, I will eat a massive piece of humble pie and also perform a truly onerous penance. I will vote Tory in the locals.
If the deal is as you describe it I`ll be delighted. I`ve agreed with you that there WILL be a deal, but I`d envisaged a much worse one than you describe.
(Enjoyed your header very much by the way - apologies for not commenting but I was away from the site for it`s duration, so completely missed it, and only caught up this morning. More from you please.)
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?
QTWAIN.
Idiots will talk about "blinking" or "capitulation" guaranteed.
The reality is that even before any deal is agreed both parties as MaxPB well mentioned above have already moved. The EU have moved further in this process so far than we have but that shouldn't be too surprising as what they originally asked for was well out of the ordinary. They've come a long way and we've moved too - that is what happens in negotiations.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
What are the restrictions on services, i.e. what are we giving up in exchange for ending FoM?
Tweed mainly. Illegal to make it now. Also being tweedy will land you in jail. I'm off to spend 100 years as I post. I've never even owned any tweed! I did have a tweedy thought once mind.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
I've seen us be more nimble on foreign policy and on approving the vaccine (yes, I know technically we could have done in the EU too) since we've left - to the West's benefit on the former, and to the EU's benefit on the latter as the competition has sped up their approval too. I've seen the bones of a more sustainable and ecologically-friendly agricultural and fisheries policy. I've seen ideas of reforming our public procurement process and reviewing our financial and digital regulations. I've seen us be more ambitious on our trade deals with the RoW. And, now, we set the terms of how people come here from anywhere in the world.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?
Interestingly if the UK joined the CPTPP then I believe the CPTPP would overtake the EU as the world's second largest free trade area wouldn't it? The EU would I believe drop down to third.
The CPTPP isn't as ambitious as the EU in terms of the market, but that's why it's appealing. I don't think they're comparable, it's why we need separate trade deals with the countries in it to get better free trade terms.
Oh indeed but am I right in thinking that as a share of global GDP our membership would mean the CPTPP would overtake the EU?
I wonder if that would put a few noses out of joint, or if people would be more mature than that.
"Tremendous problems being found with voting machines. They are so far off it is ridiculous. Able to take a landslide victory and reduce it to a tight loss. This is not what the USA is all about. Law enforcement shielding machines. DO NOT TAMPER, a crime. Much more to come!"
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
I've seen us be more nimble on foreign policy and on approving the vaccine (yes, I know technically we could have done in the EU too) since we've left - to the West's benefit on the former, and to the EU's benefit on the latter as the competition has sped up their approval too. I've seen the bones of a more sustainable and ecologically-friendly agricultural and fisheries policy. I've seen ideas of reforming our public procurement process and reviewing our financial and digital regulations. I've seen us be more ambitious on our trade deals with the RoW. And, now, we set the terms of how people come here from anywhere in the world.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.
Which are the core values that you're referring to and thinking of specifically, here ? Most of these points do appear pragmatism-led, rather than values-led.
Interestingly if the UK joined the CPTPP then I believe the CPTPP would overtake the EU as the world's second largest free trade area wouldn't it? The EU would I believe drop down to third.
The CPTPP isn't as ambitious as the EU in terms of the market, but that's why it's appealing. I don't think they're comparable, it's why we need separate trade deals with the countries in it to get better free trade terms.
Oh indeed but am I right in thinking that as a share of global GDP our membership would mean the CPTPP would overtake the EU?
I wonder if that would put a few noses out of joint, or if people would be more mature than that.
Yes, I think it would be just about bigger but with a much higher trend growth rate.
Both sides have moved from those positions. You can decide for yourselves which of the two parties has moved most.
Let's put it this way: the UK's position was that the commitments on state aid and the 'level playing field' should not enforceable at all, and should not be subject to the FTA’s dispute resolution mechanism. You wouldn't have got any prizes in June for predicting that that wasn't going to fly.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
I've seen us be more nimble on foreign policy and on approving the vaccine (yes, I know technically we could have done in the EU too) since we've left - to the West's benefit on the former, and to the EU's benefit on the latter as the competition has sped up their approval too. I've seen the bones of a more sustainable and ecologically-friendly agricultural and fisheries policy. I've seen ideas of reforming our public procurement process and reviewing our financial and digital regulations. I've seen us be more ambitious on our trade deals with the RoW. And, now, we set the terms of how people come here from anywhere in the world.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.
Which are the core values you're referring to here ? Most of these points do appear pragmatism-led, rather than values-led.
It's become a nationalist/patriotic/closed v. internationalist/globalist/open schism, even though that's a simplistic caricature.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?
Tbh, we're going to get the "capitulation" narrative if there's a deal. Some people need something to cling to. From here it looks as though there's a pretty fair negotiation happening with both sides giving ground to get a satisfactory outcome. It's what we've all been waiting for since 2016, just disappointing it's taken until now for the EU to start that process and negotiate from the original mandate which was never going to be acceptable and lead to no deal.
"Tremendous problems being found with voting machines. They are so far off it is ridiculous. Able to take a landslide victory and reduce it to a tight loss. This is not what the USA is all about. Law enforcement shielding machines. DO NOT TAMPER, a crime. Much more to come!"
It's always "more to come" but none of it comes into pleadings in court as there are actual penalties for perjury, whereas the penalty for spouting an endless torrent of bullsh1t on Twitter is "! This claim about election fraud is disputed".
Both sides have moved from those positions. You can decide for yourselves which of the two parties has moved most.
Let's put it this way: the UK's position was that the commitments on state aid and the 'level playing field' should not enforceable at all, and should not be subject to the FTA’s dispute resolution mechanism. You wouldn't have got any prizes in June for predicting that that wasn't going to fly.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
I consider it a certain outcome so I'd more put it the other way. I'll be truly shocked if there is not a deal. But a deal is nevertheless good news and when it is duly announced I'll be delighted to be not shocked. Thus we will both be delighted and on the same page. Key to continuation of such a Pax Brexitanica is to NOT start arguing the toss about who "blinked". Do you think this can be avoided?
Tbh, we're going to get the "capitulation" narrative if there's a deal. Some people need something to cling to. From here it looks as though there's a pretty fair negotiation happening with both sides giving ground to get a satisfactory outcome. It's what we've all been waiting for since 2016, just disappointing it's taken until now for the EU to start that process and negotiate from the original mandate which was never going to be acceptable and lead to no deal.
Any deal will be give and take and capitulation is only used by those who want brexit to fall
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
I've seen us be more nimble on foreign policy and on approving the vaccine (yes, I know technically we could have done in the EU too) since we've left - to the West's benefit on the former, and to the EU's benefit on the latter as the competition has sped up their approval too. I've seen the bones of a more sustainable and ecologically-friendly agricultural and fisheries policy. I've seen ideas of reforming our public procurement process and reviewing our financial and digital regulations. I've seen us be more ambitious on our trade deals with the RoW. And, now, we set the terms of how people come here from anywhere in the world.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.
Which are the core values you're referring to here ? Most of these points do appear pragmatism-led, rather than values-led.
It's become a nationalist/patriotic/closed v. internationalist/globalist/open schism, even though that's a simplistic caricature.
But surely actions like joining CPTPP would be acts of globalism, in the economic globalised sense. We would be a very rare member of a pacific/asian trade partnership from the other side of the world, for instance.
Hmm, interesting. As much for what is not said as what is. But someone in that position has to say something at this time fo year.
It was really Angus Brendan's comment that struck me. There really do still seem to be knives out. Eck's testimony could be real popcorn time if this is how his lieutenants feel.
Even before May gave Gav a prime job, he was a whip...it is totally unfathomable how he ever got any role at all.
He must have some good about him.
Ian Blackford I long regarded in a dim light. However I saw an interview with him where he was at home and he seemed a really lovely chap. Views are all wrong of course, but away from the daft pontification of Westminster.
My hunch is that Williamson is magnificently toady. Lord knows what you might do with such a 'skill' though.
During the Tory leadership contest he was top of my list of people I didn't want to win (and of course most didn't stand) - Steve Baker next, then the general nut-jobs, then Gove (untrustworthy).
If he weren't a senior government minister, he'd be an absurd but amusing figure. As it is, he's absurd and dangerous.
Man, I cannot get away from elections and political minutiae even when I try now - reading The World Set Free by HG Wells, and quite why I needed to know the future world government used a method of proportional representation with a single transferable vote and recall mechanism I have no idea.
One day we'll get there. Hopefully without the lifetime terms.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
I've seen us be more nimble on foreign policy and on approving the vaccine (yes, I know technically we could have done in the EU too) since we've left - to the West's benefit on the former, and to the EU's benefit on the latter as the competition has sped up their approval too. I've seen the bones of a more sustainable and ecologically-friendly agricultural and fisheries policy. I've seen ideas of reforming our public procurement process and reviewing our financial and digital regulations. I've seen us be more ambitious on our trade deals with the RoW. And, now, we set the terms of how people come here from anywhere in the world.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.
Which are the core values you're referring to here ? Most of these points do appear pragmatism-led, rather than values-led.
It's become a nationalist/patriotic/closed v. internationalist/globalist/open schism, even though that's a simplistic caricature.
Your use of nationalist and patriotic vs internationalist and globalist is interesting.
I think some will just shift their angle of criticism but I'll be delighted if we get a Deal this week.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
It is merely damage limitation, but very welcome all the same.
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
Here's a thought: what is Brexit is actually OK?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
I think the best you can hope for is that the fears of so many small businesspeople and exporting businesses large and small turn out to have been exaggerated, and one way or another they find away around the avalanche of paperwork and red tape that is about to hit them.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
I've seen us be more nimble on foreign policy and on approving the vaccine (yes, I know technically we could have done in the EU too) since we've left - to the West's benefit on the former, and to the EU's benefit on the latter as the competition has sped up their approval too. I've seen the bones of a more sustainable and ecologically-friendly agricultural and fisheries policy. I've seen ideas of reforming our public procurement process and reviewing our financial and digital regulations. I've seen us be more ambitious on our trade deals with the RoW. And, now, we set the terms of how people come here from anywhere in the world.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.
Which are the core values you're referring to here ? Most of these points do appear pragmatism-led, rather than values-led.
It's become a nationalist/patriotic/closed v. internationalist/globalist/open schism, even though that's a simplistic caricature.
But surely actions like joining CPTPP would be acts of globalism, in the economic globalised sense. We would be a very rare member of a pacific/asian trade partnership from the other side of the world, for instance,
Yeah, I know. I don't agree with the simplistic caricature.
Comments
This is a special, better class of mutation. Which spreads more easily, without need of the feckless, irresponsible behaviour of dirty Northerners.
Theresa May liked him I think. He was some fantastically short price to be next PM. (Fantastically short counts for him as much as everyone at less than 1000/1, but he was far shorter)
He must have good points. Nobody can be quite so bad as he apparently seems.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/technology-55318225
What's the betting it will end up being like the VAT rules on digital goods and end up screwing the little guy by accident.
I think the Farage-style "no deal under any circumstances" element of Tories will be tiny.
For most Tories I imagine if the UK is sovereign and can diverge they will be happy. Certainly personally speaking that is my priority.
I'll take that.
Ian Blackford I long regarded in a dim light. However I saw an interview with him where he was at home and he seemed a really lovely chap. Views are all wrong of course, but away from the daft pontification of Westminster.
My hunch is that Williamson is magnificently toady. Lord knows what you might do with such a 'skill' though.
During the Tory leadership contest he was top of my list of people I didn't want to win (and of course most didn't stand) - Steve Baker next, then the general nut-jobs, then Gove (untrustworthy).
Technical issues I believe.
https://twitter.com/foxy_michael/status/1338819612889243649
If he's right, I think it will be somewhere between 5000 and 8000 depending on whether the growth has continued as before or whether alert level 3 is starting to have an effect.
Reported cases in England have been weirdly constant with six days in a row at 17k or thereabouts (although they're all big increases on the previous week).
Revealed: shocking death toll of asylum seekers in Home Office accommodation
FoI response shows 29 people died – five times as many as lost their lives in perilous Channel crossings
https://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2020/dec/15/revealed-shocking-death-toll-of-asylum-seekers-in-home-office-accommodation
Or is that overly cynical?
No Deal is not an option for us so there will be a Deal. The Deal will have wins on Fish and ending FOM. On LPF there will be a draw, albeit closer in substance to the EU position than to ours (because of the balance of power). It will be SM privileges for us plus the right to diverge in the future BUT at the price potentially of less free market access (depending on what the divergence is and subject to a defined process).
If the above is not an accurate summary of the outcome, I will eat a massive piece of humble pie and also perform a truly onerous penance. I will vote Tory in the locals.
Also, Liz Truss has just done Mexico too. By my reckoning that's *all* significant EU trade agreements successfully grandfathered & some built upon in under 11 months, except Turkey. The rest are very small beer.
That really is phenomenal work.
If Betfair had paid out promptly when they should have done, in accordance with their own rules, there could not have been the slightest question about their actions. As soon as they dithered and started talking about ECVs, challenges, recounts, court actions, concession and all the stuff that was never in the rules, they opened themselves up to this kind of dispute. They were encouraging the nutters like the man in the hat.
Betfair certainly deserve to reap what they have sown.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/15/britain-deport-young-black-men-justice-osime-brown
Makes you wonder about her predecessor.
The UK seemingly has capitulated yet again!
Turkey's can't be grandfathered can it? Because of their customs union with the EU?
She fits perfectly into the cabinet, utterly useless.
Joined up government that ain’t.
The EU's original position was that they wanted us to replicate their rules, no divergence.
That you consider that potential landing zone as being close to the EU's position shows just how successfully the UK has managed to move the Overton Window.
But why let facts get in the way, eh?
I mean, sure, the current Deal is "thin" - we ultimately need more on services, freer movement for business and professional people, young people (2-year working visas for 18-30 year olds, perhaps) and better UK-EU customs collaboration - but I could easily see us doing well, and the EU being happier too, provided we don't lose Scotland along the way. This could easily be an enduring settlement. And we might all move on.
Don't answer now. Let's chat in 5 years time.
We could end 2021 with a really great external trade position if we get this deal done with the EU.
https://www.politico.eu/article/uk-turkey-trade-deal-analysis/
It is exciting what the next few years could bring.
He's snatched the opportunities, run round the defence and nailed it!
5 points.
The betting is heavily against the conversion.
But you won’t get anything like five years before people settle on a conclusion.
It’s a simple fact that all around the EU borders there are long queues of lorries waiting to be checked through; I saw it driving across the Swiss/German border last September, and Switzerland is much more aligned and integrated than we look like being.
The loss of free movement, free trade and ancillary benefits such as basic health protection and the pet passport are very real. So far there is nothing remotely real about the promised upside to this whole fiasco.
Where we started was freedom to diverge with no recourse to tariffs, then it became freedom to diverge but unilateral right for either party to set tariffs, now we're at freedom to diverge with either party following arbitration set tariffs.
The LPF will look a lot more like what we've been proposing from the start, a baseline minimum level, non-regression and arbitrator led tariffs when necessary.
"The people who died were Mercy Baguma, from Uganda, who was found dead with her toddler by her side, Adnan Olbeh, from Syria, and Badreddin Abadlla Adam, who was shot dead by police, after he stabbed six people including a police officer."
This is definitely a statistic that needs more information adding.
I expect there is a high suicide rate. Whether that's because the UK turns out not to be the answer to all their problems or because they get left in Home Office or Court limbo for too long is another question...
(Enjoyed your header very much by the way - apologies for not commenting but I was away from the site for it`s duration, so completely missed it, and only caught up this morning. More from you please.)
Idiots will talk about "blinking" or "capitulation" guaranteed.
The reality is that even before any deal is agreed both parties as MaxPB well mentioned above have already moved. The EU have moved further in this process so far than we have but that shouldn't be too surprising as what they originally asked for was well out of the ordinary. They've come a long way and we've moved too - that is what happens in negotiations.
Yes, sure, the short-term political and economic consequences have been horrendous, and I don't think any of us would like to go through this again, but I think much of this fight is about values.
It doesn't necessarily speak much for our long-term success, which I have very few doubts over.
I wonder if that would put a few noses out of joint, or if people would be more mature than that.
Hmm, interesting. As much for what is not said as what is. But someone in that position has to say something at this time fo year.
"Tremendous problems being found with voting machines. They are so far off it is ridiculous. Able to take a landslide victory and reduce it to a tight loss. This is not what the USA is all about. Law enforcement shielding machines. DO NOT TAMPER, a crime. Much more to come!"
https://commonslibrary.parliament.uk/research-briefings/cbp-8920/
Both sides have moved from those positions. You can decide for yourselves which of the two parties has moved most.
Let's put it this way: the UK's position was that the commitments on state aid and the 'level playing field' should not enforceable at all, and should not be subject to the FTA’s dispute resolution mechanism. You wouldn't have got any prizes in June for predicting that that wasn't going to fly.
I think Ph*l*p is still on atm.
As it is, he's absurd and dangerous.
One day we'll get there. Hopefully without the lifetime terms.