The Trump denial saga: 8 Republicans elected to the House last month backed move which would have co

MattW said:

Zuerst.

DavidL said:

Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

BluestBlue said:

Second like Trump in 50 lawsuits.

FeersumEnjineeya said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

Wouldn't "Erste(r)" be more appropriate? I'd thought "zuerst" was an adverbial form, more typically translated as "firstly" or "at first" or "to begin with" in English?

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?

In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?

In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.

Getting a star for good work is well-understood but (and I hesitate to say it, since your english is so good) "Very well. That gives an asterisk" does not really work idiomatically.

But the sense of what you said was clear.

MattW said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?

To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".

MattW said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?

To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".

ThomasNashe said:

MattW said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?

To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".

It’s one of those lines, of which we can say: if he didn’t say it, then he ought to have.

DavidL said:

Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

Benpointer said:

matthiasfromhamburg said:

MattW said:

Zuerst.

Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.

You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")

Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?

In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.

stodge said:

Afternoon all

Such as it is with political parties and "loyalty". Those who stand against "the leader" are subjected to threats, harassment and intimidation by those who are members of the same party.

What of here? If a Conservative were to come out and publicly oppose Johnson, what of them? Would they be subject to similar intimidation and threats?

Is loyalty to the leader all that matters? In that regard, what differentiates today's Republican Party from other authoritarian or totalitarian "parties" of the past and present? I suppose those Republicans who oppose Trump aren't likely to be dragged from their homes in the middle of the night and executed - presumably.

At what point does membership of a political movement or party mean the right to openly oppose the policies of that leader or party end?

Peter_the_Punter said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial

In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.

Fysics_Teacher said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial

In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.

I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.

Everything I've seen on US law says that the President can only pardon federal crimes. Cumo would have to be on board to pardon him in NY.

moonshine said:

Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?

Fysics_Teacher said:

moonshine said:

Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?

Only if the deal does not include a "transition period".

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.

I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184

https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677906991079424

https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677912217022464

Fysics_Teacher said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial

In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.

I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.

Everything I've seen on US law says that the President can only pardon federal crimes. Cumo would have to be on board to pardon him in NY.

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial

Fysics_Teacher said:

moonshine said:

Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?

Only if the deal does not include a "transition period".

Peter_the_Punter said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.

I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184

Tuesday is more likely than Monday, but I wouldn't place the probability higher than 80%.

The trouble is that settling by reference to the ECV makes no sense in itself. The only credible winning post was the one Biden crossed when the Networks called the contest the weekend after the election. This was undoubtedly what Betfair had in mind when they framed the rules, and on which they began settling. They had no reason to divert from this path. Any subsequent dates or events that have been mentioned make sense only in terms of factors entirely unrelated to the orderly settlement of betting markets.

Apart from the IT sides, Betfair run an incredibly simple business. It is no surprise therefore that the pumps are manned mostly by extremely simple people. Anyone who has ever corresponded with them is likely to have been struck by their difficulty in grasping even the most basic principles of punting, or sound business principles for that matter. The only thing that matters is throughput, i.e., the number of bets matched. So ask a sensible question like 'What exactly do you mean by 'projected Electoral College votes' and you are likely to confronted by bewilderment, possibly followed much later by a PR statement so bland and uninformative that even Jim Hacker would have been embarrassed by it.

I wouldn't have placed the probabilty of a settlement next week as high as 80% but for the fact that I know Betfair have been inundated with complaints and it is likely that IBAS and the Gambling Commission are taking a well-justified look at them. The ECV gives Betfair a face-saving formula on the 15th. If they don't take that, I suppose the next one is Inauguration Day on 20th January. After that, it can only be whenever Trump concedes, which is likely to be never.

Let's just hope Betfair take the early option.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/DavidHenigUK/status/1338089049949675524

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Fysics_Teacher said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial

In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.

I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.

Everything I've seen on US law says that the President can only pardon federal crimes. Cumo would have to be on board to pardon him in NY.

Yes but that can be arranged. Question is the quid pro quo from Trump.

Btw, on the upthread poll for 2024, I should be inclined to add the numbers for Trump and Don Jr. (Sorry, Ivanka; your cause is noble but your rating has hit a glass ceiling.)

kle4 said:

One does have to question how so many of these conversations have been 'constructive and useful' when they don't resolve anything.

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.

Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.

Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.

Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.

Ok. First, my ongoing best wishes for all of that and in general. But you talk about feeling depressed and one thing about depression is it's different for everybody and the reasons for it are never invalid, regardless of whether others find them strange or not.

So, me and Trump, it really has knocked me for six. That such a person could first of all have been elected to POTUS, and then have his quite unspeakable behaviour humoured and enabled and tolerated and downplayed for so long by so many, has been a massive problem for me. I found it really hard to accept and for 4 years, which is quite a long time, it made the world appear a less appealing place to me. It affected my mood significantly. Nothing clinical, not even close to that, but when I've felt low in recent times, the reason for it has often had something to do with him - not simply him per se, but what the Trump phenomenon was telling me.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MattChorley/status/1338135526965190656

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.

Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.

Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.

Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.

Ok. First, my ongoing best wishes for all of that and in general. But you talk about feeling depressed and one thing about depression is it's different for everybody and the reasons for it are never invalid, regardless of whether others find them strange or not.

So, me and Trump, it really has knocked me for six. That such a person could first of all have been elected to POTUS, and then have his quite unspeakable behaviour humoured and enabled and tolerated and downplayed for so long by so many, has been a massive problem for me. I found it really hard to accept and for 4 years, which is quite a long time, it made the world appear a less appealing place to me. It affected my mood significantly. Nothing clinical, not even close to that, but when I've felt low in recent times, the reason for it has often had something to do with him - not simply him per se, but what the Trump phenomenon was telling me.

I am genuinely not criticising or questioning the genuineness of your feelings. I am very sorry if it came across that way. I do agree that 74m Americans choosing to vote for that man says nothing good about human nature and that is disturbing. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.

DavidL said:

DougSeal said:

Theuniondivvie said:

Anyway, back to the Irish being enablers of the Holocaust.

https://twitter.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1337864454403452928?s=20

I suggested nuking Herne Bay from space earlier. If that is not possible can I nuke Twitter and all of its servers from space instead? I cannot think of one benefit it has accrued to humanity. Not one. Even the idea that it helped organise protests accross the Middle East has been comprehensively debunked.

It has vividly demonstrated what an arsehole Donald Trump is (and many others of lesser note).

Benpointer said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

not_on_fire said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial

In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.

I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.

Absolutely no way I can see Biden pardoning Trump for so much as a stray fart, let alone treason.

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.
s://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

h//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Philip_Thompson said:

Peter_the_Punter said:

eek said:

DecrepiterJohnL said:

DavidL said:

Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.

I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184

Tuesday is more likely than Monday, but I wouldn't place the probability higher than 80%.

The trouble is that settling by reference to the ECV makes no sense in itself. The only credible winning post was the one Biden crossed when the Networks called the contest the weekend after the election. This was undoubtedly what Betfair had in mind when they framed the rules, and on which they began settling. They had no reason to divert from this path. Any subsequent dates or events that have been mentioned make sense only in terms of factors entirely unrelated to the orderly settlement of betting markets.

Apart from the IT sides, Betfair run an incredibly simple business. It is no surprise therefore that the pumps are manned mostly by extremely simple people. Anyone who has ever corresponded with them is likely to have been struck by their difficulty in grasping even the most basic principles of punting, or sound business principles for that matter. The only thing that matters is throughput, i.e., the number of bets matched. So ask a sensible question like 'What exactly do you mean by 'projected Electoral College votes' and you are likely to confronted by bewilderment, possibly followed much later by a PR statement so bland and uninformative that even Jim Hacker would have been embarrassed by it.

I wouldn't have placed the probabilty of a settlement next week as high as 80% but for the fact that I know Betfair have been inundated with complaints and it is likely that IBAS and the Gambling Commission are taking a well-justified look at them. The ECV gives Betfair a face-saving formula on the 15th. If they don't take that, I suppose the next one is Inauguration Day on 20th January. After that, it can only be whenever Trump concedes, which is likely to be never.

Let's just hope Betfair take the early option.

Settling on the ECV does make sense in that there is no doubt now that Biden has won the ECV. It should be settled yesterday really when SCOTUS ruled since the counting of votes is locked in place now, only things remaining now are subsequent actions like faithless electors or Congress messing around but the terms explicitly excluded that (faithless at least).

Until SCOTUS ruled there was a possibility that projected winner could change. There isn't anymore, it's over Biden won.

Foxy said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.
s://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

h//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

I don't doubt the polling, but cannot see it being the same as in 3 years time for the first Primary. He will be old news, and old by then. There are few second chances in American political lives, Biden being a notable exception.

The difficulty is finding another with Trump's appeal in rural areas and charisma. That is a rare finding.

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

DavidL said:

kinabalu said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Benpointer said:

HYUFD said:

Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.

I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.

Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.

Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.

Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.

Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.

Ok. First, my ongoing best wishes for all of that and in general. But you talk about feeling depressed and one thing about depression is it's different for everybody and the reasons for it are never invalid, regardless of whether others find them strange or not.

So, me and Trump, it really has knocked me for six. That such a person could first of all have been elected to POTUS, and then have his quite unspeakable behaviour humoured and enabled and tolerated and downplayed for so long by so many, has been a massive problem for me. I found it really hard to accept and for 4 years, which is quite a long time, it made the world appear a less appealing place to me. It affected my mood significantly. Nothing clinical, not even close to that, but when I've felt low in recent times, the reason for it has often had something to do with him - not simply him per se, but what the Trump phenomenon was telling me.