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The Trump denial saga: 8 Republicans elected to the House last month backed move which would have co

SystemSystem Posts: 12,168
edited December 2020 in General
imageThe Trump denial saga: 8 Republicans elected to the House last month backed move which would have cost them their seats – politicalbetting.com

The failure of Trump to win re-election last month and his absolute determination not to acknowledge the fact is creating some amazing oddities for the Republican party.

Read the full story here

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Comments

  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241
    edited December 2020
    Zuerst.
  • BluestBlueBluestBlue Posts: 4,556
    Second like Trump in 50 lawsuits.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?
  • So Jeremy, who should.we get to host the launch of your new project...that Ms Sultana is a nice new fresh face in politics... don't you think that perhaps all your issues with antisemitism, it might be better to use somebody less outspoken...no, I want her to do it...

    https://www.thejc.com/news/uk/labour-candidate-apologises-for-saying-zionists-were-not-willingly-to-assimilate-1.493172
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 71,421
    ‘Tis sport to have the engineer hoist on his own petard.

    Especially if a Trumpite.
  • MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677
    I am struggling to decide whether I'd prefer Trump to have rapidly diminishing influence after January or to retain enough influlence to split the GOP.

    On balance, I think the latter would be nice - 2022 and 2024 to be Dems v GOP v Trumpists.
  • paulyork64paulyork64 Posts: 2,507
    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    i really hope so. but it isnt just Betfair Exchange. Paddys and Betvictor are still dithering about 2 of my bets.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    i really hope so. but it isnt just Betfair Exchange. Paddys and Betvictor are still dithering about 2 of my bets.
    And Sporting Index.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 123,123
    edited December 2020
    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President
  • FeersumEnjineeyaFeersumEnjineeya Posts: 4,429
    edited December 2020

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    Wouldn't "Erste(r)" be more appropriate? I'd thought "zuerst" was an adverbial form, more typically translated as "firstly" or "at first" or "to begin with" in English?

    Although I suppose it depends what exactly the poster wishes to convey :-)
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
  • johntjohnt Posts: 166
    I wonder how realistic it is to think Trump will be a candidate in 2024.

    Once he is out of the WH I would expect his impact and influence to fade. But he has made a career out of division and maybe he can keep it going for another four years.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Second like Trump in 50 lawsuits.

    You make it sound like losing 50 court cases is a bad thing 😉
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677
    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
  • MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    Wouldn't "Erste(r)" be more appropriate? I'd thought "zuerst" was an adverbial form, more typically translated as "firstly" or "at first" or "to begin with" in English?
    Correct, but "Erster" isn't completely wrong, nor does it sound awkward.
  • MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.
  • MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    It means "Very good. You get a star for that", the sort of thing you might say to a primary school child.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677
    edited December 2020

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    It means "Very good. You get a star for that", the sort of thing you might say to a primary school child.
    Lol, yes, despite Google translate's limitiations I was able to guess that :smile:

    Thanks though!

    Edit: Although now I have seen @matthiasfromhamburg's reply I am not so sure 🤔
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
  • MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    He'd probably be right to say that too.

    If it was possible he'd be behind bars is the unspoken bit.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 38,866

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.
    Different meaning, an asterisk would probably be something that needs correcting. A gold star would be a sticker in primary school for good performance.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 13,893
    Afternoon all :)

    Such as it is with political parties and "loyalty". Those who stand against "the leader" are subjected to threats, harassment and intimidation by those who are members of the same party.

    What of here? If a Conservative were to come out and publicly oppose Johnson, what of them? Would they be subject to similar intimidation and threats?

    Is loyalty to the leader all that matters? In that regard, what differentiates today's Republican Party from other authoritarian or totalitarian "parties" of the past and present? I suppose those Republicans who oppose Trump aren't likely to be dragged from their homes in the middle of the night and executed - presumably.

    At what point does membership of a political movement or party mean the right to openly oppose the policies of that leader or party end?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    Well I would be pretty confident that he wouldn't accept the vote of the jury for a start.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.
    Getting a star for good work is well-understood but (and I hesitate to say it, since your english is so good) "Very well. That gives an asterisk" does not really work idiomatically.

    But the sense of what you said was clear.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
  • matthiasfromhamburgmatthiasfromhamburg Posts: 957
    edited December 2020

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.
    Getting a star for good work is well-understood but (and I hesitate to say it, since your english is so good) "Very well. That gives an asterisk" does not really work idiomatically.

    But the sense of what you said was clear.
    Yes, I kind of overlooked the usage of asterisks as reference to annotations, and really meant the little golden star in the teacher's notebook.
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241
    edited December 2020

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.
    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

    Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

    I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

    I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    He'd probably be right to say that too.

    If it was possible he'd be behind bars is the unspoken bit.
    Couldn't Radovan Karadžić for example have said the same?
  • Current Betfair prices:-

    Biden 1.02
    Democrats 1.02
    Biden PV 1.02
    Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
    Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
    Trump ECV 210-239 1.04
    Biden ECV 300-329 1.04
    Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.03
    Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.03
    Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.01

    AZ Dem 1.02
    GA Dem 1.03
    MI Dem 1.03
    NV Dem 1.02
    PA Dem 1.02
    WI Dem 1.03

    Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.06
    Trump exit date 2021 1.05
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.
  • MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.
    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

    Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

    I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

    I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".
    Very glad you took it in good humour. I wasn't trying to be offensive.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677
    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    I am afraid the Trumpsters will not go away.

    You are probalby right about Trump not going to prison though.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.
    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

    Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

    I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

    I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".
    It’s one of those lines, of which we can say: if he didn’t say it, then he ought to have.
  • MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.
    A star implies "well done". An asterisk implies "something odd happened here: check the notes". An Asterix implies a small Frenchman who regularly takes performance enhancing drugs.
    * but only ever in pusuit of a good cause, and under tight regulation from an independent druid arbiter.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.
    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

    Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

    I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

    I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".
    It’s one of those lines, of which we can say: if he didn’t say it, then he ought to have.
    Without a time machine how can anyone alive now know whether he did or didn't say it?
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    I am afraid the Trumpsters will not go away.

    You are probalby right about Trump not going to prison though.
    Yes, probably right - but I can imagine there would be a lot of prosecutors prepared to work ‘pro bono’ on this one.
  • DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

    Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    He'd probably be right to say that too.

    If it was possible he'd be behind bars is the unspoken bit.
    Couldn't Radovan Karadžić for example have said the same?
    Non-jury trial.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.
    Speaking personally I've never really equated asterisks with stars (though of course I can see why you would). I think most teachers in the UK would draw something more like a pentagram star when marking a particularly good piece of homework, or even use a gold star sticker.
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,349
    edited December 2020

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
  • stodge said:

    Afternoon all :)

    Such as it is with political parties and "loyalty". Those who stand against "the leader" are subjected to threats, harassment and intimidation by those who are members of the same party.

    What of here? If a Conservative were to come out and publicly oppose Johnson, what of them? Would they be subject to similar intimidation and threats?

    Is loyalty to the leader all that matters? In that regard, what differentiates today's Republican Party from other authoritarian or totalitarian "parties" of the past and present? I suppose those Republicans who oppose Trump aren't likely to be dragged from their homes in the middle of the night and executed - presumably.

    At what point does membership of a political movement or party mean the right to openly oppose the policies of that leader or party end?

    I'm not sure Conservatives opposing Johnson is a hypothetical: in fact we are waiting to see which wing of the party is going to gang up on him most.
    Perhaps the difference is that Tory MPs have the ultimate power to get rid of their leader (unlike Labour ones) and, unlike the Republicans who also have that power, have shown that they are prepared to use it four times so far in my lifetime.
  • eekeek Posts: 28,398
    edited December 2020

    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

    Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.
    I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677906991079424

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677912217022464
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,331
    I see it’s been another Australia-style result for Sheffield United this afternoon.
  • MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.

    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    In fact I did, but I thought recording an asterisk in the teacher's notebook was common practice, like it is (or was) over here.
    Speaking personally I've never really equated asterisks with stars (though of course I can see why you would). I think most teachers in the UK would draw something more like a pentagram star when marking a particularly good piece of homework, or even use a gold star sticker.
    These days it's an emoji in Teams...
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
    I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.
    Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751
    Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

    If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
    I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.
    Everything I've seen on US law says that the President can only pardon federal crimes. Cumo would have to be on board to pardon him in NY.
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
    I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.
    Everything I've seen on US law says that the President can only pardon federal crimes. Cumo would have to be on board to pardon him in NY.
    Yes but that can be arranged. Question is the quid pro quo from Trump.

    Btw, on the upthread poll for 2024, I should be inclined to add the numbers for Trump and Don Jr. (Sorry, Ivanka; your cause is noble but your rating has hit a glass ceiling.)
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    I am afraid the Trumpsters will not go away.

    You are probalby right about Trump not going to prison though.
    The TrumpSTERS won't, no. That would be far too much to hope for. But I don't see him being a big player. My hunch is that a way will be found to trade his legal problems for him and his clan disappearing from politics.
  • moonshine said:

    Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

    If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?

    Only if the deal does not include a "transition period".
  • MattWMattW Posts: 23,241

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.
    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

    Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

    I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

    I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".
    Very glad you took it in good humour. I wasn't trying to be offensive.
    No fuss. Getting offended at blog comment jokes means life is too short.
  • Not heard much fanboiing for Gupta recently, has she been put in the let's not talk about Sweden box?

    https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1338101639971024900?s=20

    Mind you, there's always the hardcore. Less deadly than the common cold ffs.

    https://twitter.com/MikeOtsuka/status/1338102052573077505?s=20

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.
    Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.
    Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

    In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    moonshine said:

    Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

    If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?

    Only if the deal does not include a "transition period".
    To be pointedly called an "implementation period" otherwise Jacob Rees Mogg will kick off.
  • moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,751

    moonshine said:

    Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

    If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?

    Only if the deal does not include a "transition period".
    But they’d need to replace the transition period with the deal though. Do the government retain authority to sign the new treaty or post-Miller do they need to get an Act of Parliament?
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

    Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.
    I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677906991079424

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677912217022464
    I don't think Senate Republicans will go along with this, precisely because it would be a farce and an embarrassment.

    There is no prospect of success as objections must be approved by both the Democrat-controlled House and a Senate which may (depending on Georgia run-off) have a GOP majority but which also has a clear majority to seat Biden as several Repulican Senators recognise his win and many more have been very clear that they are allowing him to exhaust LEGAL avenues.

    I think the senior chamber will recognise this and heavy pressure will be placed on any hothead amongst them not to put the party through it. No doubt there are a few cranks in the House delegation keen to make a name for themselves, but not sure they'll get a single Senator signed up.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 29,410

    I see it’s been another Australia-style result for Sheffield United this afternoon.

    Sadly there's a points-based relegation system.
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
    I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.
    Everything I've seen on US law says that the President can only pardon federal crimes. Cumo would have to be on board to pardon him in NY.
    You are absolutely correct, and this is part of the reason Trump has been particularly brutal to Cuomo over vaccine distribution and so on. Cuomo has Trump's balls in a vice - he may well be eyeing a 2024 Presidential run, and doing it as the man who jailed Trump would be a nice CV line for the Democrat primaries.
  • Betfair CS have been telling people on live chat that it is a market for who is Next President.

    Pile on Pence and Harris at 999-1!
  • Anyway, back to the Irish being enablers of the Holocaust.

    https://twitter.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1337864454403452928?s=20
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

    Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.
    I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677906991079424

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677912217022464
    Betfair should settle now the lawsuits are settled.

    Lawsuits are before the Electoral College so fair enough on that one, they were never going to succeed but if they did then under the terms as I read it then that would affect it.

    But the results are locked now that SCOTUS has ruled. We are past safe harbour and so they can't change before the Electoral College anymore and anything else now would be subsequent to it which the terms say will be disregarded.
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    I think both UK and US law is clear that there is no such thing as "impossible to have a fair trial" as this would mean people who are sufficiently notorious would effectively be above the law. The position is that strong direction is required by the judge, but you cannot argue that it is impossible for you to get a fair trial.

    This comes up now and then with very famous people (e.g. OJ Simpson) and people who are convicted of particularly awful crimes (with the outpouring of media stories about their past and so on), then have it overturned on appeal but face re-trial (or face trial on further charges).
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,349
    edited December 2020
    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

    Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.
    I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184
    Tuesday is more likely than Monday, but I wouldn't place the probability higher than 80%.

    The trouble is that settling by reference to the ECV makes no sense in itself. The only credible winning post was the one Biden crossed when the Networks called the contest the weekend after the election. This was undoubtedly what Betfair had in mind when they framed the rules, and on which they began settling. They had no reason to divert from this path. Any subsequent dates or events that have been mentioned make sense only in terms of factors entirely unrelated to the orderly settlement of betting markets.

    Apart from the IT sides, Betfair run an incredibly simple business. It is no surprise therefore that the pumps are manned mostly by extremely simple people. Anyone who has ever corresponded with them is likely to have been struck by their difficulty in grasping even the most basic principles of punting, or sound business principles for that matter. The only thing that matters is throughput, i.e., the number of bets matched. So ask a sensible question like 'What exactly do you mean by 'projected Electoral College votes?' and you are likely to confronted by bewilderment, possibly followed much later by a PR statement so bland and uninformative that even Jim Hacker would have been embarrassed by it.

    I wouldn't have placed the probabilty of a settlement next week as high as 80% but for the fact that I know Betfair have been inundated with complaints and it is likely that IBAS and the Gambling Commission are taking a well-justified look at them. The ECV gives Betfair a face-saving formula on the 15th. If they don't take that, I suppose the next one is Inauguration Day on 20th January. After that, it can only be whenever Trump concedes, which is likely to be never.

    Let's just hope Betfair take the early option.

  • MarqueeMarkMarqueeMark Posts: 52,600

    moonshine said:

    Apologies if this has already been discussed. But do I remember correctly that it is decreed by primary Uk legislation that the transition period will end on 31st Dec?

    If so, surely there is a drop dead date to negotiations far earlier than some in the media are supposing?

    Only if the deal does not include a "transition period".
    Presumably there will be no further payments during any "implementation period" after 31st December.
  • eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

    Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.
    I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184
    Tuesday is more likely than Monday, but I wouldn't place the probability higher than 80%.

    The trouble is that settling by reference to the ECV makes no sense in itself. The only credible winning post was the one Biden crossed when the Networks called the contest the weekend after the election. This was undoubtedly what Betfair had in mind when they framed the rules, and on which they began settling. They had no reason to divert from this path. Any subsequent dates or events that have been mentioned make sense only in terms of factors entirely unrelated to the orderly settlement of betting markets.

    Apart from the IT sides, Betfair run an incredibly simple business. It is no surprise therefore that the pumps are manned mostly by extremely simple people. Anyone who has ever corresponded with them is likely to have been struck by their difficulty in grasping even the most basic principles of punting, or sound business principles for that matter. The only thing that matters is throughput, i.e., the number of bets matched. So ask a sensible question like 'What exactly do you mean by 'projected Electoral College votes' and you are likely to confronted by bewilderment, possibly followed much later by a PR statement so bland and uninformative that even Jim Hacker would have been embarrassed by it.

    I wouldn't have placed the probabilty of a settlement next week as high as 80% but for the fact that I know Betfair have been inundated with complaints and it is likely that IBAS and the Gambling Commission are taking a well-justified look at them. The ECV gives Betfair a face-saving formula on the 15th. If they don't take that, I suppose the next one is Inauguration Day on 20th January. After that, it can only be whenever Trump concedes, which is likely to be never.

    Let's just hope Betfair take the early option.

    Settling on the ECV does make sense in that there is no doubt now that Biden has won the ECV. It should be settled yesterday really when SCOTUS ruled since the counting of votes is locked in place now, only things remaining now are subsequent actions like faithless electors or Congress messing around but the terms explicitly excluded that (faithless at least).

    Until SCOTUS ruled there was a possibility that projected winner could change. There isn't anymore, it's over Biden won.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210
    edited December 2020
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.
    Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.
    Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

    In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.
    Ok. First, my ongoing best wishes for all of that and in general. But you talk about feeling depressed and one thing about depression is it's different for everybody and the reasons for it are never invalid, regardless of whether others find them strange or not.

    So, me and Trump, it really has knocked me for six. That such a person could first of all have been elected to POTUS, and then have his quite unspeakable behaviour humoured and enabled and tolerated and downplayed for so long by so many, has been a massive problem for me. I found it really hard to accept and for 4 years, which is quite a long time, it made the world appear a less appealing place to me. It affected my mood significantly. Nothing clinical, not even close to that, but when I've felt low in recent times, the reason for it has often had something to do with him - not simply him per se, but what the Trump phenomenon was telling me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126
    Scott_xP said:
    One does have to question how so many of these conversations have been 'constructive and useful' when they don't resolve anything.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,126

    felix said:

    Has Jeremy announced his new project yet?

    I heard it's going to be a World's Biggest Marrow competition.

    Huge if true.
    Sadly nothing so exciting as all that. Just another organisation for peace and justice (why has no-one thought of it before?). With any luck only a few of those who sign on will be accidental anti-semites. They can sneak up on you.
  • HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
    I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.
    Everything I've seen on US law says that the President can only pardon federal crimes. Cumo would have to be on board to pardon him in NY.
    Yes but that can be arranged. Question is the quid pro quo from Trump.

    Btw, on the upthread poll for 2024, I should be inclined to add the numbers for Trump and Don Jr. (Sorry, Ivanka; your cause is noble but your rating has hit a glass ceiling.)
    How do you mean, "arranged"?

    Allowing the President to pardon state crimes would require a constitutional amendment.

    Governor Cuomo is probably eyeing a 2024 Presidential run... what's his incentive to play ball if he sees the opportunity to go into Democratic primaries as the man who jailed Trump? And he's Governor of New York - not like they can buy him off with a nice bridge and a few quid for road resurfacing as you would for Idaho or whatever.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,712

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    Wouldn't "Erste(r)" be more appropriate? I'd thought "zuerst" was an adverbial form, more typically translated as "firstly" or "at first" or "to begin with" in English?

    Although I suppose it depends what exactly the poster wishes to convey :-)
    To wade into the German Grammar debate with my time expired O level German, isn't the adverbial form correct? The implied verb is "to go" so the modifier should be an adverb.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 36,001
    kle4 said:

    One does have to question how so many of these conversations have been 'constructive and useful' when they don't resolve anything.

    This one resolved at least one thing.

    BoZo is still scared of the headbangers but he intends to disappointment them

    Otherwise he would have crashed the talks with Churchillian bluster (the dog, not the man) and been hailed a hero (for up to 2 weeks more)
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.
    Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.
    Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

    In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.
    Ok. First, my ongoing best wishes for all of that and in general. But you talk about feeling depressed and one thing about depression is it's different for everybody and the reasons for it are never invalid, regardless of whether others find them strange or not.

    So, me and Trump, it really has knocked me for six. That such a person could first of all have been elected to POTUS, and then have his quite unspeakable behaviour humoured and enabled and tolerated and downplayed for so long by so many, has been a massive problem for me. I found it really hard to accept and for 4 years, which is quite a long time, it made the world appear a less appealing place to me. It affected my mood significantly. Nothing clinical, not even close to that, but when I've felt low in recent times, the reason for it has often had something to do with him - not simply him per se, but what the Trump phenomenon was telling me.
    I am genuinely not criticising or questioning the genuineness of your feelings. I am very sorry if it came across that way. I do agree that 74m Americans choosing to vote for that man says nothing good about human nature and that is disturbing. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
    I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.
    Absolutely no way I can see Biden pardoning Trump for so much as a stray fart, let alone treason.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    Anyway, back to the Irish being enablers of the Holocaust.

    https://twitter.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1337864454403452928?s=20

    I suggested nuking Herne Bay from space earlier. If that is not possible can I nuke Twitter and all of its servers from space instead? I cannot think of one benefit it has accrued to humanity. Not one. Even the idea that it helped organise protests accross the Middle East has been comprehensively debunked.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,036
    Does Bozo call a Flat White an 'Australian Style Cappuccino'?

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    DougSeal said:

    Anyway, back to the Irish being enablers of the Holocaust.

    https://twitter.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1337864454403452928?s=20

    I suggested nuking Herne Bay from space earlier. If that is not possible can I nuke Twitter and all of its servers from space instead? I cannot think of one benefit it has accrued to humanity. Not one. Even the idea that it helped organise protests accross the Middle East has been comprehensively debunked.
    It has vividly demonstrated what an arsehole Donald Trump is (and many others of lesser note).
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210
    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.
    Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.
    Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

    In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.
    Ok. First, my ongoing best wishes for all of that and in general. But you talk about feeling depressed and one thing about depression is it's different for everybody and the reasons for it are never invalid, regardless of whether others find them strange or not.

    So, me and Trump, it really has knocked me for six. That such a person could first of all have been elected to POTUS, and then have his quite unspeakable behaviour humoured and enabled and tolerated and downplayed for so long by so many, has been a massive problem for me. I found it really hard to accept and for 4 years, which is quite a long time, it made the world appear a less appealing place to me. It affected my mood significantly. Nothing clinical, not even close to that, but when I've felt low in recent times, the reason for it has often had something to do with him - not simply him per se, but what the Trump phenomenon was telling me.
    I am genuinely not criticising or questioning the genuineness of your feelings. I am very sorry if it came across that way. I do agree that 74m Americans choosing to vote for that man says nothing good about human nature and that is disturbing. Thank you for sharing your thoughts.
    :smile:
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858

    Does Bozo call a Flat White an 'Australian Style Cappuccino'?

    You and your bohemian affectations 😉
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541
    DavidL said:

    DougSeal said:

    Anyway, back to the Irish being enablers of the Holocaust.

    https://twitter.com/kelvmackenzie/status/1337864454403452928?s=20

    I suggested nuking Herne Bay from space earlier. If that is not possible can I nuke Twitter and all of its servers from space instead? I cannot think of one benefit it has accrued to humanity. Not one. Even the idea that it helped organise protests accross the Middle East has been comprehensively debunked.
    It has vividly demonstrated what an arsehole Donald Trump is (and many others of lesser note).
    Without Twitter I don't think he would have been elected president. I hope they take his account off him when he goes. Does anyone hear anything of Katie Hopkins anymore?
  • Does Bozo call a Flat White an 'Australian Style Cappuccino'?

    I should hope not.

    It is New Zealand style.
  • DougSealDougSeal Posts: 12,541

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    And easy for Trump to claim it is impossible to have a fair trial
    In fairness, you have to say it would hardly be possible to give him a fair trial in New York, such is the animosity towards him.

    A certain amount of patience is in order here. A lot of stuff is likely to come out in the years ahead. Even on current evidence I should say there is a prima facie case for a charge of treason. Not sure any pardon is going to get him off that unless it is specifically mentioned, which in itself would probably be tantamount to an admission of guilt.

    Then there's the attack on his businesses and personal assets. The world he finds on leaving the White House will be very different to what it was when he enetered it. He may still be able to gather a congregation of deranged QAnoners and the like but in places of power and influence few will want to be associated with him.

    Nor will it be much easier for his family and close associates. Pardons extend only as far the USA's water's edge. They will need to be careful about taking foreign trips.

    Might be wrong about this, but I think most of us have more reason than Trump to look forward to 2021.
    I expect that if Pence has not pardoned Trump, then President Biden will do so in order to avoid embarrassment to the United States, and that the pardon will be extended to include the states' investigations. It would do America no good, and, to be cynical, it would not help Trump's opponents if he is acquited on a hung jury.
    Absolutely no way I can see Biden pardoning Trump for so much as a stray fart, let alone treason.
    I think that Biden will stay out of it and let New York State do the necessary. "Nothin to do with me, Guv!"
  • F1: well, that race was tedious.

    But my tip came off. Need to check the numbers but I think both the Perez and McLaren best of the rest bets came off too. May be contingent on the penalty investigation into Sainz for pit lane naughtiness.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 34,677
    edited December 2020
    In other news, sound Conservative financial management in action (or should that be inaction?):

    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-northamptonshire-55279308

    "The BBC has discovered the Conservative-controlled authority has been issued with six "unsatisfied" county court judgements (CCJs) since 2016, totalling more than £100,000."
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,354
    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    MattW said:

    Zuerst.

    Sehr gut. Das gibt ein Sternchen.
    You have just exposed the limitations of Google translate for me there Matthias (unless you really meant "Very well. That gives an asterisk.")
    Not really. Google translate is spot on in this case.
    Ok so you didn't mean: Very good. That earns a star?
    To be colloquial on PB, he'd be saying "Two house points".

    Since I was originally taught the usage by my German German Teacher, it's a case of "Hier stehe ich. Ich kann nicht anders", which will probably earn an even smaller star, since it's open to question whether he ever said it.

    I meant "First !", which I see is also a name for an unfortunate magazine in Germany.

    I take the "little star" as not a "Gold Star".
    Very glad you took it in good humour. I wasn't trying to be offensive.
    No fuss. Getting offended at blog comment jokes means life is too short.
    For me it would mean they were a humourless bellend
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 48,712
    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.
    s://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    h//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    I don't doubt the polling, but cannot see it being the same as in 3 years time for the first Primary. He will be old news, and old by then. There are few second chances in American political lives, Biden being a notable exception.

    The difficulty is finding another with Trump's appeal in rural areas and charisma. That is a rare finding.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 42,210

    eek said:

    DavidL said:

    Surely the Betfair market settles tomorrow when the EC registers the votes of the States? I mean, what possible reason could there be not to?

    Time zones? I've not checked when everything takes place but if it is late afternoon or evening then it would not surprise me if Betfair does not settle till Tuesday.

    Technically, it is still possible for Congress to impose further delays on or before 6th January but Betfair should have settled by then.
    I'm sure I covered that yesterday - it's possible (but unlikely) for Congress and the Senate to reject the result

    https://twitter.com/marshallmanson/status/1337677901911773184
    Tuesday is more likely than Monday, but I wouldn't place the probability higher than 80%.

    The trouble is that settling by reference to the ECV makes no sense in itself. The only credible winning post was the one Biden crossed when the Networks called the contest the weekend after the election. This was undoubtedly what Betfair had in mind when they framed the rules, and on which they began settling. They had no reason to divert from this path. Any subsequent dates or events that have been mentioned make sense only in terms of factors entirely unrelated to the orderly settlement of betting markets.

    Apart from the IT sides, Betfair run an incredibly simple business. It is no surprise therefore that the pumps are manned mostly by extremely simple people. Anyone who has ever corresponded with them is likely to have been struck by their difficulty in grasping even the most basic principles of punting, or sound business principles for that matter. The only thing that matters is throughput, i.e., the number of bets matched. So ask a sensible question like 'What exactly do you mean by 'projected Electoral College votes' and you are likely to confronted by bewilderment, possibly followed much later by a PR statement so bland and uninformative that even Jim Hacker would have been embarrassed by it.

    I wouldn't have placed the probabilty of a settlement next week as high as 80% but for the fact that I know Betfair have been inundated with complaints and it is likely that IBAS and the Gambling Commission are taking a well-justified look at them. The ECV gives Betfair a face-saving formula on the 15th. If they don't take that, I suppose the next one is Inauguration Day on 20th January. After that, it can only be whenever Trump concedes, which is likely to be never.

    Let's just hope Betfair take the early option.

    Settling on the ECV does make sense in that there is no doubt now that Biden has won the ECV. It should be settled yesterday really when SCOTUS ruled since the counting of votes is locked in place now, only things remaining now are subsequent actions like faithless electors or Congress messing around but the terms explicitly excluded that (faithless at least).

    Until SCOTUS ruled there was a possibility that projected winner could change. There isn't anymore, it's over Biden won.
    How about this one -

    SPIN settled their Biden -20 ECV Handicap market ages ago. Settled it as Biden Winner since he has not only won the election but done so by more than 20 ECV. Yet they have still as we speak not settled their vanilla Winner market. So Biden has won by more than 20 for a fact but he might not win.

    Bookies eh.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 43,354
    kle4 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    One does have to question how so many of these conversations have been 'constructive and useful' when they don't resolve anything.
    Just bollox to drag it out till someone has to say enough, Boris is scared to just say we are done. EU will just leave it up to him , they have at least prepared so don't have the same worries as Laurel & Hardy
  • Foxy said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.
    s://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    h//twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    I don't doubt the polling, but cannot see it being the same as in 3 years time for the first Primary. He will be old news, and old by then. There are few second chances in American political lives, Biden being a notable exception.

    The difficulty is finding another with Trump's appeal in rural areas and charisma. That is a rare finding.
    Biden's not even necessarily a second chance. He's lost primaries before but then many candidates had previously lost a primary. I can't think of any notable actual elections he's lost.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 53,858
    edited December 2020

    F1: well, that race was tedious.

    But my tip came off. Need to check the numbers but I think both the Perez and McLaren best of the rest bets came off too. May be contingent on the penalty investigation into Sainz for pit lane naughtiness.

    Is there any truth in the rumour that the highlights show has been cancelled?

    Edit, maybe they could reshow highlights of the Manchester derby instead.
  • Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 28,477
    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    DavidL said:

    kinabalu said:

    HYUFD said:

    Once Biden is confirmed as President elect by the Electoral College on Monday the focus will shift to 2024 and Trump has a clear lead amongst Republican primary voters for the 2024 GOP nomination if he decides to run again.

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1336143427663085568?s=20

    https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1334952364676026369?s=20

    Hence GOP congressmen, wary of a primary challenge from a Trumper, have been reluctant to break ranks of him so far, though more will likely move from next week once constitutionally Biden is President elect, even if only to state that there is no way under the constitution Biden will not be the next President

    Plus, once Trump is in prison they will feel that can quit supporting him one presumes.
    I don't see how Trump can go to prison. Even in New York I think you'd struggle to find twelve random people all of whom didn't buy his BS.
    Sad to say my sense is also that Donald Trump will not see the inside of a prison cell. That feels like a Not Happening Event to me. I think his star will fade quite quickly, though, once stripped of the trappings of the presidency. Which will be so great. Just not hearing from or about the ghastly man and his ghastly politics all day and every day will be a sweet new dawn. He's been the worst part of my life for 4 long years.
    Really? You must lead a happy, fortunate and contented life. Congratulations. I can think of a very long list of things over the last 4 years that have been worse parts of my life than Donald Trump.
    Well it's true that the last 4 years have been free of trauma for me and mine. If there'd been really bad stuff like that going on, Donald Trump and his antics would have been relegated into the minor placings. But as it is, yes, I kid you not, he's been like a constant dark cloud sitting right above my head, and often enveloping it, even on the sunniest day.
    Well, as I say, congratulations on your good fortune. I really don't like Trump. He is amoral, misogynist, racist, corrupt and he has done considerable damage to US democracy, not least since November 5th. But I struggle to think of anything that he has done that has had a direct impact on me and mine.

    In contrast my wife had an operation, a child suffered badly from depression, I have had a trip to hospital myself, my brother has lived a half life with a terminal condition, my son has been denied exams two years in a row and a chance to shine, the implications of lockdown caused real financial concerns and it is now causing a non medical depression caused by a lack of holidays, family trips and socialising. Don't get me wrong, there have been lots of good things as well and I am not complaining. I am just struggling to imagine the leader of a different country impacting on me to such a material extent.
    Ok. First, my ongoing best wishes for all of that and in general. But you talk about feeling depressed and one thing about depression is it's different for everybody and the reasons for it are never invalid, regardless of whether others find them strange or not.

    So, me and Trump, it really has knocked me for six. That such a person could first of all have been elected to POTUS, and then have his quite unspeakable behaviour humoured and enabled and tolerated and downplayed for so long by so many, has been a massive problem for me. I found it really hard to accept and for 4 years, which is quite a long time, it made the world appear a less appealing place to me. It affected my mood significantly. Nothing clinical, not even close to that, but when I've felt low in recent times, the reason for it has often had something to do with him - not simply him per se, but what the Trump phenomenon was telling me.
    It's not a question of validity, but the fact is, you are using someone else's behaviour as a reason to feel bad, and that is your choice - just as it would be your choice to focus away from Donald Trump, and on something that makes you feel good. If life in all its variety and splendour is a buffet, you are currently deliberately feasting on the things you hate. And looking over at other people on other tables and in other queues, and being outraged about what they're choosing to eat. I'm not going to ask you to be any different, because that would imply that I want you to be different for me to feel better - and I don't. However, you may wish to ponder whether you prefer feeling bad, or good, and take steps in your chosen direction.
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