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As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal –

SystemSystem Posts: 11,721
edited December 2020 in General
imageAs Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal – politicalbetting.com

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    First
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    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,574
    Second, like Bozo next time
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    Mr. B2, if the PCP has any sense there won't be a next time for the PM.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117
    Sigh
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    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:
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    WhisperingOracleWhisperingOracle Posts: 8,503
    edited December 2020
    The fact that figures like John Redwood and Peter Bone are looking so cheerful, and so loudly proclaiming their confidence in Johnson, as Peter "Cushing" Bone was on Channel 4 News last night, represents some genuine causes for worry.
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    Mr. B2, if the PCP has any sense there won't be a next time for the PM.

    Says the guy who twice voted for Boris Johnson led campaigns.

    You keep on enabling him for further idiocies.
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    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 76,026
    Apologies for posting a Breitbart link, but this must be one of the maddest and most desperate filings regarding constitutional law in US legal history
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/07/texas-sues-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-at-supreme-court-election-rules/

    "That way madness lies"
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
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    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
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    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
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    'They won't give me what I have told everyone only I can get. So now its very very difficult. Either I throw my backers off the cliff and get chucked out quickly or I throw the country off the cliff and get chucked out slowly.'
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited December 2020
    That card the media were all getting worked up about as some sort of vaccine passport that could easily be faked, as I suspected is nothing more than when you go to the dentist...

    Hancock - "The card that people are being given is a reminder card for their second appointment."
  • Options

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I agree , no deal might be the best thing finally settling the debate about Brexit.
    Another upside is Johnson and his followers own it in its entirety.
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?
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    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.

    Could they just rip all the trade out of the agreement? What would be left apart from aviation?
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    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,117
    Serious question for the finance guys amongst us, is there any reasonable chance of interest rates going up significantly in the short term following a "no deal"?

    I'm on a tracker mortgage as I probably will sell in the summer so I'd rather not fix if I can help it but any significant ramp in interest rates will leave the mortgage completely unaffordable almost immediately.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited December 2020

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
  • Options

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?
    June to August typically. Unless you go down under.
  • Options

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Long term benefits. That the huge cost burden of regulations and pointless red tape is less than potential benefits of a devaluation of the pound and lower tariffs than the £0 we pay at the moment.

    And we get to be patronised by government campaigns encouraging us to eat Herring and Chips, Mutton and Offal.
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    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.

    I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMG
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,252

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,497
    Pulpstar said:

    Apologies for posting a Breitbart link, but this must be one of the maddest and most desperate filings regarding constitutional law in US legal history
    https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/07/texas-sues-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-at-supreme-court-election-rules/

    "That way madness lies"

    Sounds very like a Ted Cruz wheeze to me. I’ll get your case to the Supreme Court. Even if it is dog shit.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245

    Serious question for the finance guys amongst us, is there any reasonable chance of interest rates going up significantly in the short term following a "no deal"?

    I'm on a tracker mortgage as I probably will sell in the summer so I'd rather not fix if I can help it but any significant ramp in interest rates will leave the mortgage completely unaffordable almost immediately.

    No, don't waste your money.
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    Boris Johnson has said he hopes the "power of sweet reason" will allow the UK and EU to reach a post-Brexit trade deal this week.

    Its like he has never dealt with the EU over the past 4 years.
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Insanity indeed. They need more than the Scottish level 3 measures they've just introduced to bring cases down.

    Re Christmas more generally, hopefully the family mixing will be somewhat offset by the schools and unis being closed and most people being off work.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,497

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?
    Thursday I think.
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    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time ago
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    edited December 2020

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?
    We have to climb up to them. It`s an arduous trek apparently.
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    Boris Johnson has said he hopes the "power of sweet reason" will allow the UK and EU to reach a post-Brexit trade deal this week.

    Its like he has never dealt with the EU over the past 4 years.

    I thought he said "sui treason", to prepare the ERG
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time ago
    No tree? Tinsel?

    I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.
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    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    "Adapt". To the imposition of a shitton of red tape which the Tories spend decades removing. Of mountains of pointless admin. Of a complete rethink of how they trade as we depart the just in time pan-European logistics network and have to think about stockpiling. Of rounds of painful price increases first of all imposed on their customers and then carried by consumers who as a consequence buy less.

    What are the benefits of no deal again? Lower tariffs than the £0 we currently pay in the EU?
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2020

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
    Don't know.

    Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.

    We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
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    Talking of shit shows....

    The two members of England's touring party who gave "unconfirmed positive" coronavirus tests will be able to return to the UK from South Africa after further testing and analysis showed they are not infected.

    Cancelled tour from false positives.
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    DavidLDavidL Posts: 51,497
    Stocky said:

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time ago
    No tree? Tinsel?

    I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.
    Talk about moving targets, sheez.
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    Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 65,826
    edited December 2020

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    "Adapt". To the imposition of a shitton of red tape which the Tories spend decades removing. Of mountains of pointless admin. Of a complete rethink of how they trade as we depart the just in time pan-European logistics network and have to think about stockpiling. Of rounds of painful price increases first of all imposed on their customers and then carried by consumers who as a consequence buy less.

    What are the benefits of no deal again? Lower tariffs than the £0 we currently pay in the EU?
    Yes, adapt.

    People do a shit ton of red tape all the time anyway. There will be some extra computerised red tape to deal with, shit but shit happens.

    The benefits are a clean break from Europe. Severing the billions a year we pay to Europe, severing all control they have over our laws, severing all say they have over our customs etc - you know the kind of things we argued about for the past five years already.

    In the future when we've gotten through the disruption we can look to negotiate a clean FTA as equals without any of the so-called LPF nonsense that isn't in any other FTA LPF.
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    Stocky said:

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time ago
    No tree? Tinsel?

    I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.
    Actually we have a tree and in common with the neighbours put up more outside lights and decorations

    However , the 10 of us will not have Christmas day around the same table, each staying in their own home
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    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,252

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
    Don't know.

    Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.

    We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
    The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.
  • Options

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
    Don't know.

    Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.

    We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
    It is an unknown quantity and it could go either way
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.

    I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMG
    Johnson voted for Mays deal eventually.
    So I would think there must be some hope of a deal.
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    Talking of shit shows....

    The two members of England's touring party who gave "unconfirmed positive" coronavirus tests will be able to return to the UK from South Africa after further testing and analysis showed they are not infected.

    Cancelled tour from false positives.

    Don't you'll start off rottenborough.

    It was cancelled due to SA positives and positives in the hotel staff too showing the "biosecure bubble" was anything but.
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736
    edited December 2020
    Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?

    I recommend it highly.
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    Yorkcity said:

    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.

    I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMG
    Johnson voted for Mays deal eventually.
    So I would think there must be some hope of a deal.
    I said it at the time that TM deal should have passed

    Indeed had it done so many ex Labour mps would still be in the HOC

    It was a collective failure by the mps at that time
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    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
    Don't know.

    Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.

    We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
    The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.
    The EU wants to be Europe's version of the USA and is inexorably evolving that way. Europe is comparable to pre-Civil War USA (minus the whole slavery malarkey). The EU's ratchet effect means eventually it is going to either have to break the ratchet or it will be a federal country in its own right like the USA.

    I would rather be outside. I'm quite content being Canada not America.
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    SelebianSelebian Posts: 7,530
    edited December 2020

    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.

    I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMG
    More importantly, a difficult January (and beyond) for the country in that case. Johnson will be fine, worst case he can quit and jet off somewhere to lick his wounds. Not everyone has that option.

    Edit: Although if so, he might get to experience first-hand any chaos at ports/airports :smile:
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,481
    Gaussian said:

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Insanity indeed. They need more than the Scottish level 3 measures they've just introduced to bring cases down.

    Re Christmas more generally, hopefully the family mixing will be somewhat offset by the schools and unis being closed and most people being off work.
    And, as I keep saying, by Dec 23rd a largish number of the most vulnerable will have had at least one shot of vaccine. I know two are needed for the full immunity, but there will be some effect from the start.

    Better times are coming.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited December 2020

    Talking of shit shows....

    The two members of England's touring party who gave "unconfirmed positive" coronavirus tests will be able to return to the UK from South Africa after further testing and analysis showed they are not infected.

    Cancelled tour from false positives.

    Don't you'll start off rottenborough.

    It was cancelled due to SA positives and positives in the hotel staff too showing the "biosecure bubble" was anything but.
    Very disappoining that it failed, as it worked brilliantly in England and for the whole of the IPL.
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    I thought that the difference between short term and long term, is that in the latter everyone is dead.

    In the 90s there was a hedge fund LTCM which almost brought the financial system down due to a crisis in Russia. Whilst their hedge models may have worked theoretically in the long term, short term they went bust.
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    GaussianGaussian Posts: 793

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.

  • Options
    maaarshmaaarsh Posts: 3,391

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.
  • Options

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?
    They are already present. You can see them if you look south and east from Dover ... ;)
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    UK scientists are planning trials to see if giving people two different types of Covid vaccine, one after the other, might give better protection than two doses of one jab.

    This wil really set of the anti-vaxxers like Piers Corbyn...
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,042
    Stocky said:

    Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?

    I recommend it highly.

    Seconded. Was a recommendation off here.
  • Options
    Stocky said:

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time ago
    No tree? Tinsel?

    I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.
    I have a cunning plan, I've moved my annual check up to before Christmas, rather than after it, like last year and a few raised eyebrows.....
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    Something we never thought we'd say before March. How glorious it is to be arguing about Brexit again.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,519

    Serious question for the finance guys amongst us, is there any reasonable chance of interest rates going up significantly in the short term following a "no deal"?

    I'm on a tracker mortgage as I probably will sell in the summer so I'd rather not fix if I can help it but any significant ramp in interest rates will leave the mortgage completely unaffordable almost immediately.

    No.
  • Options

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
    Don't know.

    Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.

    We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
    This is your friendly reminder that Canada's GDP per capita is currently around 30% below that of the US and that even with NAFTA or whatever Trump has rebranded it as there are substantial trade barriers between the two countries that contribute to that differential. Canada certainly pays a price for that autonomy. And of course they have never had the option of full US market access without total political absorption like we had with the EU - I am sure they would have bitten America's hand off if they offered that.
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    kinabalukinabalu Posts: 39,460
    Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382

    Yorkcity said:

    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.

    I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMG
    Johnson voted for Mays deal eventually.
    So I would think there must be some hope of a deal.
    I said it at the time that TM deal should have passed

    Indeed had it done so many ex Labour mps would still be in the HOC

    It was a collective failure by the mps at that time
    Agreed I said the same.
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    What are the benefits of no deal again? Lower tariffs than the £0 we currently pay in the EU?

    A united Conservative Party is the goal. No more Europe schisms.

    Who gives a f*** about tariffs?
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    FishingFishing Posts: 4,562

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
    Don't know.

    Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.

    We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
    The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.
    The EU wants to be Europe's version of the USA and is inexorably evolving that way. Europe is comparable to pre-Civil War USA (minus the whole slavery malarkey). The EU's ratchet effect means eventually it is going to either have to break the ratchet or it will be a federal country in its own right like the USA.

    I would rather be outside. I'm quite content being Canada not America.
    So are most Canadians.
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    eekeek Posts: 25,078
    maaarsh said:

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.
    And in the second week of January when they've created jams at the other ports?
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    But if business isn't fully prepared for whatever they agree whenever they agree it when it comes into effect in 23 days it will be their fault.
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    Luckyguy1983Luckyguy1983 Posts: 25,661
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.

    I somehow think you channeled Sean for this post.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,042
    Gaussian said:

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.

    It wasn't the firebreak that was the problem. It was its duration and its reckless loosening.
    Anecdotal evidence from England suggests it won't be much better from now on.
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    CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 59,844
    edited December 2020
    No wonder at the state of Scottish education.....
    https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1336268524327751681?s=20
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    CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 40,064
    edited December 2020
    Selebian said:

    I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.

    I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMG
    More importantly, a difficult January (and beyond) for the country in that case. Johnson will be fine, worst case he can quit and jet off somewhere to lick his wounds. Not everyone has that option.

    Edit: Although if so, he might get to experience first-hand any chaos at ports/airports :smile:
    He could just get to fly Shagadelic Boris Force One with the Raff out of Northolt - and then quit once he's out of the country.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,519
    Stocky said:

    Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?

    I recommend it highly.

    Yes finished it yesterday. Very good indeed. Kasparov was a consultant so all the chess moves (and there are many) are absolutely spot on - early on in the series Beth moved her knight which you could just see was thereby threatening the queen and another piece hence it signalled its serious chess credentials early.

    Found myself pausing the tv often to see what was happening on the board.
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    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.
    And in the second week of January when they've created jams at the other ports?
    They will get used to filling in the required paperwork online before they head to the port.
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    moonshinemoonshine Posts: 5,245
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.

    That Brexit movie with Cumberbatch deserves a sequel doesn't it.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,519

    I thought that the difference between short term and long term, is that in the latter everyone is dead.

    In the 90s there was a hedge fund LTCM which almost brought the financial system down due to a crisis in Russia. Whilst their hedge models may have worked theoretically in the long term, short term they went bust.

    I think Nick Leeson's bets all came off (as in would have won) a short time after Barings' collapse.
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    FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 76,302
    edited December 2020
    dixiedean said:

    Gaussian said:

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.

    It wasn't the firebreak that was the problem. It was its duration and its reckless loosening.
    Anecdotal evidence from England suggests it won't be much better from now on.
    Errhhh the whole basis of a "fire break" policy was exactly about it only needing to be a short sharp restriction...otherwise it would have been called a lockdown like in England.

    And then they doubled down with statement that not only would it only be 2 weeks, no harsh restrictions or local tier system would be needed afterwards. Despite having big issues with 2 areas being way above the rest.

    So in summary the firebreak was exactly the problem. They should have locked down for at least a month. I am not convinced in England a month has been long enough, especially if you want this silly hall pass for Christmas.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,264

    A united Conservative Party is the goal. No more Europe schisms.

    Who gives a f*** about tariffs?

    If there is No Deal the schisms will continue as the realists try and salvage something from the wreckage and the headbangers try and find someone else to blame
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,042
    edited December 2020
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.

    Yep. It's like the final scene of Queens Gambit. 2 individuals locked in a bitter, tense battle of nerve, concentration, stamina and preparation for the ultimate prize.
    My money's on the female.
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    Mr. Eagles, Labour were led by Corbyn. I'd vote for almost anyone else over a far left type.

    I didn't vote for Boris Johnson to succeed May. You might recall, though you may prefer not to, I repeatedly said he was unworthy to be in Cabinet and severely criticised Conservative MPs for stupidly supporting an ambitious, vacillating idiot as PM.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,519
    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.

    Unless your book club is currently on Finnegan's Wake and you are seeking to emulate the great man can we please have some paragraphs.

    TIA.
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    Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 33,264
    Carnyx said:

    He could just get to fly Shagadelic Boris Force One with the Raff out of Northolt - and then quit once he's out of the country.

    Apparent The Donald wants to fly on Air Force One to a rally in Florida during Biden's inauguration

    Except it's not AF1 at that point...
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    eekeek Posts: 25,078

    Good day all. So who's ordered their autarky for Christmas?

    Ours is in the freezer - as everything tells me that demand is going to outstrip supply so if you haven't ordered one get on with it,
  • Options

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    What do you think the political consequences will be?
    Don't know.

    Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.

    We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
    The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.
    The EU wants to be Europe's version of the USA and is inexorably evolving that way. Europe is comparable to pre-Civil War USA (minus the whole slavery malarkey). The EU's ratchet effect means eventually it is going to either have to break the ratchet or it will be a federal country in its own right like the USA.

    I would rather be outside. I'm quite content being Canada not America.
    Funny how in the simile market a "Canada" outcome is far more popular than a "Mexico" outcome. I would argue the latter is more likely based on the trajectory of events and the relative strength of the participants.

    Of course Guadalajara on Thames isn't very catchy.

    Or how about Ukraine, another country caught between trading blocks and identities?

    In reality the outcome will be unique: the UK will be the only country in Europe that isn't a member of the EU, attempting to join the EU or with a trading agreement with the EU. That's not exceptionalism it's isolation.
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 28,042

    Good day all. So who's ordered their autarky for Christmas?

    An oven ready one.
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    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?

    I recommend it highly.

    Yes finished it yesterday. Very good indeed. Kasparov was a consultant so all the chess moves (and there are many) are absolutely spot on - early on in the series Beth moved her knight which you could just see was thereby threatening the queen and another piece hence it signalled its serious chess credentials early.

    Found myself pausing the tv often to see what was happening on the board.
    I haven't seen it and not that interested in chess, but was going to give it a go...but all.this talk about how accurate on the chess front it is, makes it sound like it is 10hrs of watching people play chess?
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    StockyStocky Posts: 9,736

    Good day all. So who's ordered their autarky for Christmas?

    We`re having beef wellington this year
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    sladeslade Posts: 1,941
    dixiedean said:

    kinabalu said:

    Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.

    Yep. It's like the final scene of Queens Gambit. 2 individuals locked in a bitter, tense battle of nerve, concentration, stamina and preparation for the ultimate prize.
    My money's on the female.
    To be pedantic the last scene is Beth about to play against a random old Russian guy in a park.
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    TOPPINGTOPPING Posts: 41,519

    TOPPING said:

    Stocky said:

    Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?

    I recommend it highly.

    Yes finished it yesterday. Very good indeed. Kasparov was a consultant so all the chess moves (and there are many) are absolutely spot on - early on in the series Beth moved her knight which you could just see was thereby threatening the queen and another piece hence it signalled its serious chess credentials early.

    Found myself pausing the tv often to see what was happening on the board.
    I haven't seen it and not that interested in chess, but was going to give it a go...but all.this talk about how accurate on the chess front it is, makes it sound like it is 10hrs of watching people play chess?
    Absolutely not. It is just I suppose to avoid people picking holes. The chess is immaculate but, for example, there are many games when all you see is the participants' faces.

    It is a very nice coming of age drama using chess as a vehicle. As far as I could see they only used the actual Queen's Gambit in one game so it really isn't that relevant. And it was declined. :wink:
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    rpjsrpjs Posts: 3,787

    eek said:

    maaarsh said:

    From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.

    No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit

    As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now :open_mouth:

    I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.
    Define "short term". Define "long term".
    Short term: Weeks to Months

    Long term: Years to Decades

    I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
    Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.
    And in the second week of January when they've created jams at the other ports?
    They will get used to filling in the required paperwork online before they head to the port.
    Using the system that won’t actually be ready until March?
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    turbotubbsturbotubbs Posts: 15,481

    dixiedean said:

    Gaussian said:

    More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.

    Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.

    But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
    Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.

    No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
    Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.

    It wasn't the firebreak that was the problem. It was its duration and its reckless loosening.
    Anecdotal evidence from England suggests it won't be much better from now on.
    Errhhh the whole basis of a "fire break" policy was exactly about it only needing to be a short sharp restriction...otherwise it would have been called a lockdown like in England.

    And then they doubled down with statement that not only would it only be 2 weeks, no harsh restrictions or local tier system would be needed afterwards. Despite having big issues with 2 areas being way above the rest.

    So in summary the firebreak was exactly the problem. They should have locked down for at least a month. I am not convinced in England a month has been long enough, especially if you want this silly hall pass for Christmas.
    Yep - feels like we should have gone at least a week, if not two, longer in England.
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    YorkcityYorkcity Posts: 4,382
    dixiedean said:

    Stocky said:

    Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?

    I recommend it highly.

    Seconded. Was a recommendation off here.
    Yes I also watched because it was recommended on here.
    Brought memories back of Fisher v Spassky in 1972, when I was a young child.

    I am now watching gangs of London on now tv.
    Gripping and very violent.
    Surely London is not that bad.
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    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,870
    I have to say, my nominative determinism sense is not encouraged that Boris's crunch conversation is going to be with someone whose name sounds to the English ear like Van Delaying.
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    Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 13,075
    Scott_xP said:

    Carnyx said:

    He could just get to fly Shagadelic Boris Force One with the Raff out of Northolt - and then quit once he's out of the country.

    Apparent The Donald wants to fly on Air Force One to a rally in Florida during Biden's inauguration

    Except it's not AF1 at that point...
    I guess if the flight plan is filed before JB's inauguration finishes it'll be AF1 otherwise it'll be SAM28000.
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