As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal –
As Boris heads to Brussels to try to revive the negotiations the betting money edges up to no deal – politicalbetting.com
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First0
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Second, like Bozo next time1
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Mr. B2, if the PCP has any sense there won't be a next time for the PM.1
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Sigh0
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I've expected No Deal for years, I will be surprised if we do get a deal.
I suspect the chance of an accidental No Deal is much higher than a deliberate No Deal though.7 -
From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
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The fact that figures like John Redwood and Peter Bone are looking so cheerful, and so loudly proclaiming their confidence in Johnson, as Peter "Cushing" Bone was on Channel 4 News last night, represents some genuine causes for worry.1
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Says the guy who twice voted for Boris Johnson led campaigns.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. B2, if the PCP has any sense there won't be a next time for the PM.
You keep on enabling him for further idiocies.0 -
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now0 -
Apologies for posting a Breitbart link, but this must be one of the maddest and most desperate filings regarding constitutional law in US legal history
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/07/texas-sues-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-at-supreme-court-election-rules/
"That way madness lies"0 -
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now0 -
More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.0
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I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.0
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'They won't give me what I have told everyone only I can get. So now its very very difficult. Either I throw my backers off the cliff and get chucked out quickly or I throw the country off the cliff and get chucked out slowly.'CarlottaVance said:0 -
That card the media were all getting worked up about as some sort of vaccine passport that could easily be faked, as I suspected is nothing more than when you go to the dentist...
Hancock - "The card that people are being given is a reminder card for their second appointment."0 -
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.0 -
I agree , no deal might be the best thing finally settling the debate about Brexit.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Another upside is Johnson and his followers own it in its entirety.2 -
At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.0 -
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!1 -
Could they just rip all the trade out of the agreement? What would be left apart from aviation?FeersumEnjineeya said:I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
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Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).0 -
Serious question for the finance guys amongst us, is there any reasonable chance of interest rates going up significantly in the short term following a "no deal"?
I'm on a tracker mortgage as I probably will sell in the summer so I'd rather not fix if I can help it but any significant ramp in interest rates will leave the mortgage completely unaffordable almost immediately.0 -
June to August typically. Unless you go down under.Gallowgate said:
At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.0 -
Long term benefits. That the huge cost burden of regulations and pointless red tape is less than potential benefits of a devaluation of the pound and lower tariffs than the £0 we pay at the moment.Gallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
And we get to be patronised by government campaigns encouraging us to eat Herring and Chips, Mutton and Offal.0 -
I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMGFeersumEnjineeya said:I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
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What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.0 -
Sounds very like a Ted Cruz wheeze to me. I’ll get your case to the Supreme Court. Even if it is dog shit.Pulpstar said:Apologies for posting a Breitbart link, but this must be one of the maddest and most desperate filings regarding constitutional law in US legal history
https://www.breitbart.com/politics/2020/12/07/texas-sues-georgia-michigan-pennsylvania-and-wisconsin-at-supreme-court-election-rules/
"That way madness lies"0 -
No, don't waste your money.Gallowgate said:Serious question for the finance guys amongst us, is there any reasonable chance of interest rates going up significantly in the short term following a "no deal"?
I'm on a tracker mortgage as I probably will sell in the summer so I'd rather not fix if I can help it but any significant ramp in interest rates will leave the mortgage completely unaffordable almost immediately.0 -
Boris Johnson has said he hopes the "power of sweet reason" will allow the UK and EU to reach a post-Brexit trade deal this week.
Its like he has never dealt with the EU over the past 4 years.3 -
Insanity indeed. They need more than the Scottish level 3 measures they've just introduced to bring cases down.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
Re Christmas more generally, hopefully the family mixing will be somewhat offset by the schools and unis being closed and most people being off work.0 -
Thursday I think.Gallowgate said:
At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
0 -
We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time agoFrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).0 -
We have to climb up to them. It`s an arduous trek apparently.Gallowgate said:
At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.1 -
I thought he said "sui treason", to prepare the ERGFrancisUrquhart said:Boris Johnson has said he hopes the "power of sweet reason" will allow the UK and EU to reach a post-Brexit trade deal this week.
Its like he has never dealt with the EU over the past 4 years.0 -
No rush....All the time in the world.williamglenn said:0 -
No tree? Tinsel?Big_G_NorthWales said:
We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time agoFrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.0 -
"Adapt". To the imposition of a shitton of red tape which the Tories spend decades removing. Of mountains of pointless admin. Of a complete rethink of how they trade as we depart the just in time pan-European logistics network and have to think about stockpiling. Of rounds of painful price increases first of all imposed on their customers and then carried by consumers who as a consequence buy less.Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
What are the benefits of no deal again? Lower tariffs than the £0 we currently pay in the EU?0 -
Don't know.williamglenn said:
What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.
We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.0 -
Talking of shit shows....
The two members of England's touring party who gave "unconfirmed positive" coronavirus tests will be able to return to the UK from South Africa after further testing and analysis showed they are not infected.
Cancelled tour from false positives.0 -
Talk about moving targets, sheez.Stocky said:
No tree? Tinsel?Big_G_NorthWales said:
We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time agoFrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.0 -
Yes, adapt.RochdalePioneers said:
"Adapt". To the imposition of a shitton of red tape which the Tories spend decades removing. Of mountains of pointless admin. Of a complete rethink of how they trade as we depart the just in time pan-European logistics network and have to think about stockpiling. Of rounds of painful price increases first of all imposed on their customers and then carried by consumers who as a consequence buy less.Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
What are the benefits of no deal again? Lower tariffs than the £0 we currently pay in the EU?
People do a shit ton of red tape all the time anyway. There will be some extra computerised red tape to deal with, shit but shit happens.
The benefits are a clean break from Europe. Severing the billions a year we pay to Europe, severing all control they have over our laws, severing all say they have over our customs etc - you know the kind of things we argued about for the past five years already.
In the future when we've gotten through the disruption we can look to negotiate a clean FTA as equals without any of the so-called LPF nonsense that isn't in any other FTA LPF.1 -
Actually we have a tree and in common with the neighbours put up more outside lights and decorationsStocky said:
No tree? Tinsel?Big_G_NorthWales said:
We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time agoFrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.
However , the 10 of us will not have Christmas day around the same table, each staying in their own home0 -
The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't know.williamglenn said:
What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.
We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.0 -
It is an unknown quantity and it could go either wayPhilip_Thompson said:
Don't know.williamglenn said:
What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.
We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.0 -
Johnson voted for Mays deal eventually.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMGFeersumEnjineeya said:I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
So I would think there must be some hope of a deal.1 -
Don't you'll start off rottenborough.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of shit shows....
The two members of England's touring party who gave "unconfirmed positive" coronavirus tests will be able to return to the UK from South Africa after further testing and analysis showed they are not infected.
Cancelled tour from false positives.
It was cancelled due to SA positives and positives in the hotel staff too showing the "biosecure bubble" was anything but.0 -
Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?
I recommend it highly.0 -
I said it at the time that TM deal should have passedYorkcity said:
Johnson voted for Mays deal eventually.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMGFeersumEnjineeya said:I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
So I would think there must be some hope of a deal.
Indeed had it done so many ex Labour mps would still be in the HOC
It was a collective failure by the mps at that time0 -
The EU wants to be Europe's version of the USA and is inexorably evolving that way. Europe is comparable to pre-Civil War USA (minus the whole slavery malarkey). The EU's ratchet effect means eventually it is going to either have to break the ratchet or it will be a federal country in its own right like the USA.williamglenn said:
The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't know.williamglenn said:
What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.
We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
I would rather be outside. I'm quite content being Canada not America.1 -
More importantly, a difficult January (and beyond) for the country in that case. Johnson will be fine, worst case he can quit and jet off somewhere to lick his wounds. Not everyone has that option.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMGFeersumEnjineeya said:I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
Edit: Although if so, he might get to experience first-hand any chaos at ports/airports
0 -
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And, as I keep saying, by Dec 23rd a largish number of the most vulnerable will have had at least one shot of vaccine. I know two are needed for the full immunity, but there will be some effect from the start.Gaussian said:
Insanity indeed. They need more than the Scottish level 3 measures they've just introduced to bring cases down.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
Re Christmas more generally, hopefully the family mixing will be somewhat offset by the schools and unis being closed and most people being off work.
Better times are coming.1 -
Very disappoining that it failed, as it worked brilliantly in England and for the whole of the IPL.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't you'll start off rottenborough.FrancisUrquhart said:Talking of shit shows....
The two members of England's touring party who gave "unconfirmed positive" coronavirus tests will be able to return to the UK from South Africa after further testing and analysis showed they are not infected.
Cancelled tour from false positives.
It was cancelled due to SA positives and positives in the hotel staff too showing the "biosecure bubble" was anything but.1 -
I thought that the difference between short term and long term, is that in the latter everyone is dead.
In the 90s there was a hedge fund LTCM which almost brought the financial system down due to a crisis in Russia. Whilst their hedge models may have worked theoretically in the long term, short term they went bust.1 -
Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
0 -
Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.1 -
They are already present. You can see them if you look south and east from Dover ...Gallowgate said:
At what point do the sunlit uplands arrive?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
2 -
UK scientists are planning trials to see if giving people two different types of Covid vaccine, one after the other, might give better protection than two doses of one jab.
This wil really set of the anti-vaxxers like Piers Corbyn...0 -
I have a cunning plan, I've moved my annual check up to before Christmas, rather than after it, like last year and a few raised eyebrows.....Stocky said:
No tree? Tinsel?Big_G_NorthWales said:
We have cancelled Christmas and did it some time agoFrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
I`ve already eaten my bodyweight in mince pies.1 -
Something we never thought we'd say before March. How glorious it is to be arguing about Brexit again.2
-
No.Gallowgate said:Serious question for the finance guys amongst us, is there any reasonable chance of interest rates going up significantly in the short term following a "no deal"?
I'm on a tracker mortgage as I probably will sell in the summer so I'd rather not fix if I can help it but any significant ramp in interest rates will leave the mortgage completely unaffordable almost immediately.0 -
This is your friendly reminder that Canada's GDP per capita is currently around 30% below that of the US and that even with NAFTA or whatever Trump has rebranded it as there are substantial trade barriers between the two countries that contribute to that differential. Canada certainly pays a price for that autonomy. And of course they have never had the option of full US market access without total political absorption like we had with the EU - I am sure they would have bitten America's hand off if they offered that.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't know.williamglenn said:
What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.
We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.0 -
Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.2
-
Agreed I said the same.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I said it at the time that TM deal should have passedYorkcity said:
Johnson voted for Mays deal eventually.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMGFeersumEnjineeya said:I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
So I would think there must be some hope of a deal.
Indeed had it done so many ex Labour mps would still be in the HOC
It was a collective failure by the mps at that time0 -
A united Conservative Party is the goal. No more Europe schisms.RochdalePioneers said:What are the benefits of no deal again? Lower tariffs than the £0 we currently pay in the EU?
Who gives a f*** about tariffs?0 -
So are most Canadians.Philip_Thompson said:
The EU wants to be Europe's version of the USA and is inexorably evolving that way. Europe is comparable to pre-Civil War USA (minus the whole slavery malarkey). The EU's ratchet effect means eventually it is going to either have to break the ratchet or it will be a federal country in its own right like the USA.williamglenn said:
The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't know.williamglenn said:
What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.
We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
I would rather be outside. I'm quite content being Canada not America.1 -
And in the second week of January when they've created jams at the other ports?maaarsh said:
Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.0 -
But if business isn't fully prepared for whatever they agree whenever they agree it when it comes into effect in 23 days it will be their fault.FrancisUrquhart said:
No rush....All the time in the world.williamglenn said:0 -
I somehow think you channeled Sean for this post.kinabalu said:Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.
3 -
It wasn't the firebreak that was the problem. It was its duration and its reckless loosening.Gaussian said:
Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
Anecdotal evidence from England suggests it won't be much better from now on.1 -
No wonder at the state of Scottish education.....
https://twitter.com/iainmartin1/status/1336268524327751681?s=201 -
He could just get to fly Shagadelic Boris Force One with the Raff out of Northolt - and then quit once he's out of the country.Selebian said:
More importantly, a difficult January (and beyond) for the country in that case. Johnson will be fine, worst case he can quit and jet off somewhere to lick his wounds. Not everyone has that option.Big_G_NorthWales said:
I have no confidence of a deal before the new year and expect a very difficult January for Boris and HMGFeersumEnjineeya said:I presume that the purpose of Boris's trip to Brussels will be to try to make last minute arrangements to keep the planes flying, etc. come the new year. It seems pretty unlikely that either side is going to budge sufficiently for a deal to be made following the fruitless discussions over the weekend.
Edit: Although if so, he might get to experience first-hand any chaos at ports/airports1 -
Yes finished it yesterday. Very good indeed. Kasparov was a consultant so all the chess moves (and there are many) are absolutely spot on - early on in the series Beth moved her knight which you could just see was thereby threatening the queen and another piece hence it signalled its serious chess credentials early.Stocky said:Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?
I recommend it highly.
Found myself pausing the tv often to see what was happening on the board.1 -
They will get used to filling in the required paperwork online before they head to the port.eek said:
And in the second week of January when they've created jams at the other ports?maaarsh said:
Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.0 -
That Brexit movie with Cumberbatch deserves a sequel doesn't it.kinabalu said:Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.
1 -
I think Nick Leeson's bets all came off (as in would have won) a short time after Barings' collapse.NickyBreakspear said:I thought that the difference between short term and long term, is that in the latter everyone is dead.
In the 90s there was a hedge fund LTCM which almost brought the financial system down due to a crisis in Russia. Whilst their hedge models may have worked theoretically in the long term, short term they went bust.0 -
Errhhh the whole basis of a "fire break" policy was exactly about it only needing to be a short sharp restriction...otherwise it would have been called a lockdown like in England.dixiedean said:
It wasn't the firebreak that was the problem. It was its duration and its reckless loosening.Gaussian said:
Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
Anecdotal evidence from England suggests it won't be much better from now on.
And then they doubled down with statement that not only would it only be 2 weeks, no harsh restrictions or local tier system would be needed afterwards. Despite having big issues with 2 areas being way above the rest.
So in summary the firebreak was exactly the problem. They should have locked down for at least a month. I am not convinced in England a month has been long enough, especially if you want this silly hall pass for Christmas.1 -
If there is No Deal the schisms will continue as the realists try and salvage something from the wreckage and the headbangers try and find someone else to blameBeibheirli_C said:A united Conservative Party is the goal. No more Europe schisms.
Who gives a f*** about tariffs?0 -
Yep. It's like the final scene of Queens Gambit. 2 individuals locked in a bitter, tense battle of nerve, concentration, stamina and preparation for the ultimate prize.kinabalu said:Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.
My money's on the female.
2 -
Mr. Eagles, Labour were led by Corbyn. I'd vote for almost anyone else over a far left type.
I didn't vote for Boris Johnson to succeed May. You might recall, though you may prefer not to, I repeatedly said he was unworthy to be in Cabinet and severely criticised Conservative MPs for stupidly supporting an ambitious, vacillating idiot as PM.1 -
Unless your book club is currently on Finnegan's Wake and you are seeking to emulate the great man can we please have some paragraphs.kinabalu said:Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.
TIA.3 -
Good day all. So who's ordered their autarky for Christmas?5
-
Apparent The Donald wants to fly on Air Force One to a rally in Florida during Biden's inaugurationCarnyx said:He could just get to fly Shagadelic Boris Force One with the Raff out of Northolt - and then quit once he's out of the country.
Except it's not AF1 at that point...0 -
Ours is in the freezer - as everything tells me that demand is going to outstrip supply so if you haven't ordered one get on with it,BluestBlue said:Good day all. So who's ordered their autarky for Christmas?
0 -
Funny how in the simile market a "Canada" outcome is far more popular than a "Mexico" outcome. I would argue the latter is more likely based on the trajectory of events and the relative strength of the participants.Philip_Thompson said:
The EU wants to be Europe's version of the USA and is inexorably evolving that way. Europe is comparable to pre-Civil War USA (minus the whole slavery malarkey). The EU's ratchet effect means eventually it is going to either have to break the ratchet or it will be a federal country in its own right like the USA.williamglenn said:
The trouble with that vision is that the EU isn’t Europe’s version of the USA. Canada doesn’t have separate bilateral relationships with every state.Philip_Thompson said:
Don't know.williamglenn said:
What do you think the political consequences will be?Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.
Long term I expect Brexit to be much ado about nothing either way.
We will develop as Europe's version of Canada - a developed, western nation outside of a larger political union. Distinct and different, but just as developed and with many similarities.
I would rather be outside. I'm quite content being Canada not America.
Of course Guadalajara on Thames isn't very catchy.
Or how about Ukraine, another country caught between trading blocks and identities?
In reality the outcome will be unique: the UK will be the only country in Europe that isn't a member of the EU, attempting to join the EU or with a trading agreement with the EU. That's not exceptionalism it's isolation.1 -
An oven ready one.BluestBlue said:Good day all. So who's ordered their autarky for Christmas?
0 -
I haven't seen it and not that interested in chess, but was going to give it a go...but all.this talk about how accurate on the chess front it is, makes it sound like it is 10hrs of watching people play chess?TOPPING said:
Yes finished it yesterday. Very good indeed. Kasparov was a consultant so all the chess moves (and there are many) are absolutely spot on - early on in the series Beth moved her knight which you could just see was thereby threatening the queen and another piece hence it signalled its serious chess credentials early.Stocky said:Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?
I recommend it highly.
Found myself pausing the tv often to see what was happening on the board.0 -
We`re having beef wellington this yearBluestBlue said:Good day all. So who's ordered their autarky for Christmas?
0 -
To be pedantic the last scene is Beth about to play against a random old Russian guy in a park.dixiedean said:
Yep. It's like the final scene of Queens Gambit. 2 individuals locked in a bitter, tense battle of nerve, concentration, stamina and preparation for the ultimate prize.kinabalu said:Morning all. So, gosh, Brexit. It’s totally back at number 1 after the rude interregnum of the pandemic. And what a climax! After 4 years of blood sweat & tears it’s going to come down to 2 individuals in a room together on Thursday, our Prime Minster, Boris Johnson, and the President of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen. No bullshit this time, I sense. This really is it. The final showdown, mano a mano. Or mano a femo, because of course there will be a woman alone in the room with the PM and that is Ursula von der Leyen. So what, say the tiresome woke brigade with their pursed lips and whiny po faces. What’s that got to do with the price of fish? Normally nothing, is the answer, but in this case it’s (potentially) the vital ingredient and the great news is it’s in our favour. Because say what you like about Johnson he knows how to captivate the opposite sex. He’s done it all his life even when nothing is at stake, so surely here, with the future relationship between the UK and the EU on the line, he’ll be on top form and giving it both barrels. Ursula will get the full “Boris”. There’ll be some “little boy lost”, much amusing self-deprecation, he'll have his hair mussed up and probably wear odd socks, and lots of charming asides and diversions away from State Aid and Fishing Quotas into lighter topics such as what’s her favourite poem and that’s a rather fetching top she has on. And of course there will be promises from him. Promises promises promises. Will she succumb? Will we end up with a deal skewed in our favour and signed off before she realizes Johnson – now not returning her calls – has stitched her up like one of the millions of kippers the livid French will no longer be able to catch? It must be a possibility. But in any case, as I say, what a climax. You couldn’t script it any better.
My money's on the female.0 -
Absolutely not. It is just I suppose to avoid people picking holes. The chess is immaculate but, for example, there are many games when all you see is the participants' faces.FrancisUrquhart said:
I haven't seen it and not that interested in chess, but was going to give it a go...but all.this talk about how accurate on the chess front it is, makes it sound like it is 10hrs of watching people play chess?TOPPING said:
Yes finished it yesterday. Very good indeed. Kasparov was a consultant so all the chess moves (and there are many) are absolutely spot on - early on in the series Beth moved her knight which you could just see was thereby threatening the queen and another piece hence it signalled its serious chess credentials early.Stocky said:Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?
I recommend it highly.
Found myself pausing the tv often to see what was happening on the board.
It is a very nice coming of age drama using chess as a vehicle. As far as I could see they only used the actual Queen's Gambit in one game so it really isn't that relevant. And it was declined. 0 -
Using the system that won’t actually be ready until March?Philip_Thompson said:
They will get used to filling in the required paperwork online before they head to the port.eek said:
And in the second week of January when they've created jams at the other ports?maaarsh said:
Indeed - hauliers aren't fools and won't keep queuing up at the same ports if they're blocked up - they will very quickly find the least bad routes despite the inevitable coverage of lorry jams in the first week of Jan.Philip_Thompson said:
Short term: Weeks to MonthsGallowgate said:
Define "short term". Define "long term".Philip_Thompson said:
I'm still saying it. Short term disruption absolutely. The disruption will be more immediate than any benefits.Beibheirli_C said:From reading the Matthew D'Ancona piece in the header, all I can conclude is that the Brexiteers huge mess might be even bigger than I thought.
No Deal might be the best thing, finally settling the debate about Brexit
As the Brexiteers used to be so fond of pointing out, "Short term pain for long term gain". Oddly enough, they seem to have stopped saying that now
Long term: Years to Decades
I expect the disruption to be worst in January then rapidly get better as firms adapt.1 -
Yep - feels like we should have gone at least a week, if not two, longer in England.FrancisUrquhart said:
Errhhh the whole basis of a "fire break" policy was exactly about it only needing to be a short sharp restriction...otherwise it would have been called a lockdown like in England.dixiedean said:
It wasn't the firebreak that was the problem. It was its duration and its reckless loosening.Gaussian said:
Disturbingly, if you only looked at the case data, you might think the lockdown in England was only a few days longer than in Wales. And the overall squishing was pretty similar: from 300 down to 180 in Wales, and from 280 to 150 in England. Pray that the new tiers are enough to at least keep things level.FrancisUrquhart said:
Yes, that is even more bonkers. They finally in a round about way admitting there is a big problemo, but have boxed themselves in to not taking any action until after Christmas.Philip_Thompson said:
Their firebreak has been a dismal failure, as forecast by many of us here. Probably worse even than forecast.FrancisUrquhart said:More than a month since Wales' 17-day firebreak lockdown ended, there are more Covid-19 patients in hospitals than during the peak of the first wave in April.
But they're still going ahead with Christmas loosening. It is insanity!
No following the science, its all politics. They should be locking down Wales now and cancelling Christmas (so should England for that matter, as not squished down enough).
Anecdotal evidence from England suggests it won't be much better from now on.
And then they doubled down with statement that not only would it only be 2 weeks, no harsh restrictions or local tier system would be needed afterwards. Despite having big issues with 2 areas being way above the rest.
So in summary the firebreak was exactly the problem. They should have locked down for at least a month. I am not convinced in England a month has been long enough, especially if you want this silly hall pass for Christmas.2 -
Yes I also watched because it was recommended on here.dixiedean said:
Seconded. Was a recommendation off here.Stocky said:Anyone watched Queen`s Gambit on Netflix?
I recommend it highly.
Brought memories back of Fisher v Spassky in 1972, when I was a young child.
I am now watching gangs of London on now tv.
Gripping and very violent.
Surely London is not that bad.0 -
I have to say, my nominative determinism sense is not encouraged that Boris's crunch conversation is going to be with someone whose name sounds to the English ear like Van Delaying.0
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I guess if the flight plan is filed before JB's inauguration finishes it'll be AF1 otherwise it'll be SAM28000.Scott_xP said:
Apparent The Donald wants to fly on Air Force One to a rally in Florida during Biden's inaugurationCarnyx said:He could just get to fly Shagadelic Boris Force One with the Raff out of Northolt - and then quit once he's out of the country.
Except it's not AF1 at that point...0
