This Georgia runoff polling’s looking positive for the Democrats and Senate control might be in reac
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This Georgia runoff polling’s looking positive for the Democrats and Senate control might be in reach – politicalbetting.com
Sore loser and lame duck President, Trump, is planing to visit Georgia in the next two days in order to give his backing to GOP contenders in the two senate runoff races that take place on January 5th.
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Comments
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Warnock is indeed radical, even by UK standards. I would be amazed if he gets elected, although I live in hope.0
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Second, like Trump, and with a bit of luck the GOP in GA0
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It's behind you.IanB2 said:
Where??MikeSmithson said:New thread
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Now I see it. It wasnt here before.0
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Oh no it isn't......MattW said:>
It's behind you.IanB2 said:
Where??MikeSmithson said:New thread
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Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:0 -
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.CarlottaVance said:
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.0 -
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:1 -
(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/1 -
Which basically means trying to salvage some bits from the wreckage.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:2 -
This thing is so full of turnout mysteries.
Usually the turnout would collapse after the presidential election - I think 2008 was like 60% of the previous November, but what happens when it decides the Senate?
Usually the losing side would be riled up and turn out, but what happens when both sides think they've won?
Dems are programmed to vote by mail and GOP in-person. Given high organization that sounds like it will work for the Dem side, but do people going out to vote help encourage their neighbours to go out to vote?
The whole insane stop-the-steal boycott angle - I mean, WTF?0 -
I suspect by the time our road safety requirements are met - it's going to be nearer £10k but even so - I do believe a lot of people will just have low range (100 miles or so) cars for day to day use and then hire a longer range item for the odd times they need to travel a long way.Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/0 -
There will be change but I expect it will not be greatly different as the debate moves onFoxy said:
Which basically means trying to salvage some bits from the wreckage.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:
Tony Blair is correct0 -
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FPT:
My worry would be that much of the good news - the vaccine cavalry in sight, and the expectation of a Brexit deal (hence the rising £) - is already baked into the markets. Thus one would think there is mostly downside risk.Stocky said:Stock market: I, Like @IanB2 , have been very bullish about stock markets - which seem to me to be defying gravity.
Having said that, the traditional "Santa Rally" in share prices could bring significant movement on the upside this year, as the timing will chime with vaccines going into arms.
Any views on this?
In the US, which was at record highs before the vaccine announcements and which is now just over 30,000 in expectation of yet another stimulus package, looks the most vulnerable. Despite our relief at Trump's presumed departure, the tough decisions are going to be stacking up on Biden's desk, and this and he won't be so market-friendly.
In the UK it all depends on the extent of January disruption, and a safety-first approach looks sensible.
The santa rally is usually reliable - originating from the tendency of investors to review their holdings during the holiday period and make new investments along with their new year resolutions - and has become a self fulfilling prophecy as punters pile in at this time of year in anticipation.
I've done pretty well so far from the vaccine boost - the Carnival shares I mentioned buying on here in the summer for just below £10 looked initially like a mistake, but are now rising toward £15, I've nearly doubled my money on Rolls Royce, am up about 50% on Royal Mail, and the other recovery shares I have - WH Smith, Lloyd's Bank, Shell, as well as various ITs like RIT, JMG, Temple Bar, are all doing well.
If there's a Brexit deal I may take an up spread bet on the FTSE in anticipation of Santa but look to close it between Xmas and New Year, rather than hold into the early days of January as usual, as the Jan 1 risk is still there. If there's no Brexit deal I'm not playing this year. I am also inclined to reduce risk by taking a down bet on the DOW while it's above 30,000; an insurance position it is worth sticking with into 2021.
Despite the above the bulk of my holdings are defensive, reflecting both outlook and character, and I'll be mostly sticking with the index linked bonds, gold, and safety-first funds like Troy Trojan, Ruffer and BNY Real Return until my pension arrives in 2022.1 -
I still expect the GOP to hold both seats. Historically Dem turnout has been far lower in the runoffs3
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100% correct.Scott_xP said:
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Mandelson came close to accepting some blame for the current Brexit situation here but then reverts to blaming Corbyn, Lib Dems, SNP:Foxy said:
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.CarlottaVance said:
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/dec/03/labour-fall-out-over-brexit-boris-johnson-deal0 -
Whether Starmer does or doesn`t back the deal should come down to how good or bad the deal is. Simple as that.Scott_xP said:0 -
The comparison with digital imagery is a very good one.Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
I'm delighted at the moment a new supermarket is being built on my road and it comes with a petrol station. Remarkably there are no petrol stations in my part of town so I need to drive out of my way just to refuel so this will be one less headache once built.
However once there's a critical mass of Electric Vehicles and recharging there'll be a lot less incentive to build new fuel stations. Then there'll be lot less incentive to maintain existing ones. Eventually the petrol station will go the way of film processing shops.
The market can adapt to these changes very rapidly and it becomes a positive reinforcement cycle.
Fewer ICV leads to fewer petrol stations gives another incentive not to buy an ICV leads to even fewer stations.0 -
I have always said that Brexit will go with a whimper, not a bang*. Just gradual a way point in the decline of the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There will be change but I expect it will not be greatly different as the debate moves onFoxy said:
Which basically means trying to salvage some bits from the wreckage.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:
Tony Blair is correct
*the end of the United Kingdom being perhaps the exception.0 -
If Labour is to stand a chance of regaining it's former red wall seats, there are two preconditions to be met.CarlottaVance said:
One is to neutralise the Brexit issue and move on, such that voting Leave in 2016 is no longer the most important pointer to voting Conservative. So long as Starmer gives qualified backing for Johnson's agreement in parliament, I think that will be achieved. The fact that Blair is signalling that it's time to move on is very welcome, because it relegates any "rejoin" lobby to the political fringes.
The other is to be able to show, unequivocally, that Corbyn and his followers no longer have any real influence within the party. That could have been done fairly quietly, almost by default. However, it now looks like the only way to do that is to win a very messy civil war, because Corbyn's faction have chosen to go out kicking and screaming.3 -
Whether Starmer does or doesn't back a deal is meaningless fluff only cared about by politics geeks.Stocky said:
Whether Starmer does or doesn`t back the deal should come down to how good or bad the deal is. Simple as that.Scott_xP said:
The "red wall voters" won't care if he abstains or votes for. If he votes against that's another matter.0 -
Good morning, everyone.
Started snowing here. And settling.
Must be heavy in the Pennines, and Scotland.0 -
Of note - it's definitely a case with that car that you get what you pay for see https://insideevs.com/news/450654/review-wuling-hong-guang-mini-ev/eek said:
I suspect by the time our road safety requirements are met - it's going to be nearer £10k but even so - I do believe a lot of people will just have low range (100 miles or so) cars for day to day use and then hire a longer range item for the odd times they need to travel a long way.Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/0 -
If Boris brings back a deal, and Labour combine with Tory rebels to vote it down and give us No Deal... surely that's a disaster?rottenborough said:0 -
Current Betfair prices:-
Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.03
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.05
Biden ECV 300-329 1.05
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.04
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.05
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 no offers
AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.05
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.03
PA Dem 1.04
WI Dem 1.04
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.12
Trump exit date 2021 1.07
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Uniting two (off-)topics of this thread, it is of course very unfortunate that Brexit is occurring just as car manufacturers are switching from ICE to electric production. What incentive is there for car manufacturers to set up new factories and production lines in new, "fuck business", UK? I think we're going to have our work cut out simply to maintain the UK's position as a mass manufacturer of cars!Foxy said:
I have always said that Brexit will go with a whimper, not a bang*. Just gradual a way point in the decline of the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There will be change but I expect it will not be greatly different as the debate moves onFoxy said:
Which basically means trying to salvage some bits from the wreckage.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:
Tony Blair is correct
*the end of the United Kingdom being perhaps the exception.0 -
Silk purses and pigs ears come to mind.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:0 -
As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1334520197139587074?s=20
The last runoff poll had Loeffler ahead anyway
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1329255402157043713?s=20
A Democratic win in both Georgia Senate races would also be a disaster for the US in my view, Biden won to remove Trump and to bring about a calmer period of pragmatic moderation like Bush 41 in 1989 (the last President to enter office without his party in full control of Congress) not to hand power from Trump to AOC and the far left which is what would happen if the Democrats won the Senate via Harris' casting vote as well as the House and the Presidency.
It would then be AOC and Pelosi setting the agenda with Schumer and Biden would just be a pawn for them with an equally large conservative backlash at the 2022 midterms
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I'm expecting the same from my health: a gradual decline, with death perhaps being the exception.Foxy said:
I have always said that Brexit will go with a whimper, not a bang*. Just gradual a way point in the decline of the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There will be change but I expect it will not be greatly different as the debate moves onFoxy said:
Which basically means trying to salvage some bits from the wreckage.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:
Tony Blair is correct
*the end of the United Kingdom being perhaps the exception.0 -
They won't, Starmer wants to bring back the Red Wall so has made clear he will not oppose any Deal Boris gets, the main opposition will come from the ERG to any EU trade deal but Labour support would ensure it passes anywayrkrkrk said:
If Boris brings back a deal, and Labour combine with Tory rebels to vote it down and give us No Deal... surely that's a disaster?rottenborough said:0 -
If that is their position then they are our enemy.CarlottaVance said:0 -
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From outside the party, it looks the other way round, and that Starmer has been pushed (whether reluctantly or willingly) by the right into taking on the left. I'm not sure what good it will do, except perhaps for Labour's opponents.Wulfrun_Phil said:
If Labour is to stand a chance of regaining it's former red wall seats, there are two preconditions to be met.CarlottaVance said:
One is to neutralise the Brexit issue and move on, such that voting Leave in 2016 is no longer the most important pointer to voting Conservative. So long as Starmer gives qualified backing for Johnson's agreement in parliament, I think that will be achieved. The fact that Blair is signalling that it's time to move on is very welcome, because it relegates any "rejoin" lobby to the political fringes.
The other is to be able to show, unequivocally, that Corbyn and his followers no longer have any real influence within the party. That could have been done fairly quietly, almost by default. However, it now looks like the only way to do that is to win a very messy civil war, because Corbyn's faction have chosen to go out kicking and screaming.0 -
The interesting remark there is the one about how outrageous disagreeing with the leadership is .. Stalinist National PartyScott_xP said:
. 0 -
That is not true, Canada also has LPF arrangements for its EU trade dealCarlottaVance said:0 -
It's a GM joint venture, so might come to Europe quite soon (cheaper than paying Tesla for carbon credits as they're doing now).eek said:
I suspect by the time our road safety requirements are met - it's going to be nearer £10k but even so - I do believe a lot of people will just have low range (100 miles or so) cars for day to day use and then hire a longer range item for the odd times they need to travel a long way.Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
The fully specced model with ABS etc is around $5,500 - though of course there would be VAT on top of that over here.
The other point, of course, is that if Tesla's new battery format works as planned for mass production, battery prices will just about halve in the next three to four years.0 -
They couldn't pass anything without unanimous support including Joe Manchin, and that's without needing to defeat a filibuster, which they'd still need to do assuming Manchin opposes its abolition, which he says he would. So no, a 50/50 Senate is not going to hand power to AOC.HYUFD said:
A Democratic win in both Georgia Senate races would also be a disaster for the US in my view, Biden won to remove Trump and to bring about a calmer period of pragmatic moderation like Bush 41 in 1989 (the last President to enter office without his party in full control of Congress) not to hand power from Trump to AOC and the far left which is what would happen if the Democrats won the Senate via Harris' casting vote as well as the House and the Presidency.
It would then be AOC and Pelosi setting the agenda with Schumer and Biden would just be a pawn for them with an equally large conservative backlash at the 2022 midterms2 -
Of course there was a civil war in Ireland last time part of the UK broke up and that was only part of Ireland not even all of itFoxy said:
I have always said that Brexit will go with a whimper, not a bang*. Just gradual a way point in the decline of the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There will be change but I expect it will not be greatly different as the debate moves onFoxy said:
Which basically means trying to salvage some bits from the wreckage.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:
Tony Blair is correct
*the end of the United Kingdom being perhaps the exception.0 -
Bruno Waterfield is a Brexiteer propagandist who has consistently reported nonsense on the negotiations.Philip_Thompson said:
If that is their position then they are our enemy.CarlottaVance said:1 -
what a load of old cobblersHYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1334520197139587074?s=20
The last runoff poll had Loeffler ahead anyway
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1329255402157043713?s=20
A Democratic win in both Georgia Senate races would also be a disaster for the US in my view, Biden won to remove Trump and to bring about a calmer period of pragmatic moderation like Bush 41 in 1989 (the last President to enter office without his party in full control of Congress) not to hand power from Trump to AOC and the far left which is what would happen if the Democrats won the Senate via Harris' casting vote as well as the House and the Presidency.
It would then be AOC and Pelosi setting the agenda with Schumer and Biden would just be a pawn for them with an equally large conservative backlash at the 2022 midterms1 -
Bradshaw represents Remain voting Exeter, not a Northern, Midlands or Welsh Leave voting Labour seatScott_xP said:0 -
What those LPF arrangements are is what matters. The UK has said it will accept Canada style LPF arrangements. It is not the UK rejecting that. 🙄🤦🏻♂️HYUFD said:
That is not true, Canada also has LPF arrangements for its EU trade dealCarlottaVance said:0 -
Blair was quite sensible last night I thought, saying Brexit was not going to be reversed but neither could we ignore the need for a relationship with Europe, especially in a world of trading power blocksCarlottaVance said:0 -
The deal will be announced quite soon now so you need to gird your loins for the big sell. No pressure.Philip_Thompson said:
Whether Starmer does or doesn't back a deal is meaningless fluff only cared about by politics geeks.Stocky said:
Whether Starmer does or doesn`t back the deal should come down to how good or bad the deal is. Simple as that.Scott_xP said:
The "red wall voters" won't care if he abstains or votes for. If he votes against that's another matter.0 -
She is excellent. Other than Rishi she would be my preference for next PM.Scott_xP said:0 -
State of the Tory party.Philip_Thompson said:
She is excellent. Other than Rishi she would be my preference for next PM.Scott_xP said:1 -
Yes, utter nonsense.kamski said:
what a load of old cobblersHYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election
https://twitter.com/NateSilver538/status/1334520197139587074?s=20
The last runoff poll had Loeffler ahead anyway
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1329255402157043713?s=20
A Democratic win in both Georgia Senate races would also be a disaster for the US in my view, Biden won to remove Trump and to bring about a calmer period of pragmatic moderation like Bush 41 in 1989 (the last President to enter office without his party in full control of Congress) not to hand power from Trump to AOC and the far left which is what would happen if the Democrats won the Senate via Harris' casting vote as well as the House and the Presidency.
It would then be AOC and Pelosi setting the agenda with Schumer and Biden would just be a pawn for them with an equally large conservative backlash at the 2022 midterms0 -
Won't most of them become charging points? With competition for ancillary activities on site to keep people amused while they wait.Philip_Thompson said:
The comparison with digital imagery is a very good one.Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
I'm delighted at the moment a new supermarket is being built on my road and it comes with a petrol station. Remarkably there are no petrol stations in my part of town so I need to drive out of my way just to refuel so this will be one less headache once built.
However once there's a critical mass of Electric Vehicles and recharging there'll be a lot less incentive to build new fuel stations. Then there'll be lot less incentive to maintain existing ones. Eventually the petrol station will go the way of film processing shops.
The market can adapt to these changes very rapidly and it becomes a positive reinforcement cycle.
Fewer ICV leads to fewer petrol stations gives another incentive not to buy an ICV leads to even fewer stations.0 -
The thread is based on fieldwork from the first Georgia poll in almost three weeks. Given that the statewide polls in the presidential election were all over the place, I think we still have to be very wary. The previous ones did not bode well for the Democrats, and nor did the results of the actual voting on November 4th.
The Democrats are obviously still in with a chance. I think a better indicator might be the way that Trump's national approval rating fares over the next few weeks, although that so far has declined only slightly albeit with some very contradictory results within that average (eg. latest Rasmussen +2, Ipsos -21). It's possible that as reality bites, and he goes out with a discredited whimper, his diehard supporters will lose heart and be less inclined to turn out, whereas morale and turnout will still be high in the Democrat camp. That's their best scenario. I still think that it's very much a long shot for the Dems to pick up both seats as opposed to just one, although I'd very much like to be wrong on that.1 -
Crash test (with over-excitable commentary)...Nigelb said:
It's a GM joint venture, so might come to Europe quite soon (cheaper than paying Tesla for carbon credits as they're doing now).eek said:
I suspect by the time our road safety requirements are met - it's going to be nearer £10k but even so - I do believe a lot of people will just have low range (100 miles or so) cars for day to day use and then hire a longer range item for the odd times they need to travel a long way.Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
The fully specced model with ABS etc is around $5,500 - though of course there would be VAT on top of that over here.
The other point, of course, is that if Tesla's new battery format works as planned for mass production, battery prices will just about halve in the next three to four years.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=McOrMN9cQ_E0 -
F1: for reasons I don't understand, the second Bahrain (Sakhir) Grand Prix will have qualifying at 5pm and a race start time of 5.10pm.0
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That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
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Been thinking about electric; current deal runs out at the end of 2021 so will have to think. Trouble is we do most of our driving within about a 30 miles radius...... electric fine....... no we can't use a bus. For much of it.eek said:
Of note - it's definitely a case with that car that you get what you pay for see https://insideevs.com/news/450654/review-wuling-hong-guang-mini-ev/eek said:
I suspect by the time our road safety requirements are met - it's going to be nearer £10k but even so - I do believe a lot of people will just have low range (100 miles or so) cars for day to day use and then hire a longer range item for the odd times they need to travel a long way.Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
Then we do a bit more around about 100-150 mile round trip. That's fine, too
Then we (still) drive to UK relations and holidays 250 miles plus. OK, rent an ICV car.
Trouble is renting as an 80+ driver isn't quite as easy. Even with a clean licence.0 -
Worth watching the news that follows too:
https://twitter.com/CBSNews/status/1334799510032232450?s=200 -
Can't help thinking that there's a note of lascivious anticipation there.HYUFD said:
Of course there was a civil war in Ireland last time part of the UK broke up and that was only part of Ireland not even all of itFoxy said:
I have always said that Brexit will go with a whimper, not a bang*. Just gradual a way point in the decline of the country.Big_G_NorthWales said:
There will be change but I expect it will not be greatly different as the debate moves onFoxy said:
Which basically means trying to salvage some bits from the wreckage.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Or maybe get up and make it workFeersumEnjineeya said:
Stating the obvious, really. We've made our bed; now we have to lie in it.CarlottaVance said:
Tony Blair is correct
*the end of the United Kingdom being perhaps the exception.1 -
Barely any net favourability for the clown.Scott_xP said:
I had to look Amanda Milling up. What's she done or not done to upset the kippers on ConHome?0 -
I remember fifty years ago there were some vehicles that looked remarkably similar to that in their lack of any design element. "Invalid cariages". (Not sure that would be a great marketing campaign now!)Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invalid_carriage#/media/File:Invacar_1973_(4).JPG
0 -
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.1 -
Wouldn't want to run one of those into a concrete block at 30mph.MarqueeMark said:
I remember fifty years ago there were some vehicles that looked remarkably similar to that in their lack of any design element. "Invalid cariages". (Not sure that would be a great marketing campaign now!)Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invalid_carriage#/media/File:Invacar_1973_(4).JPG0 -
Indeed. Starmer shouldn't be listening just to those MPs who survived in December 2019. The balance of opinion in the Parliamentary Labour Party might not be particularly aligned with political needs, because too many of those MPs in Northern, Midlands and Welsh Leave voting seats now wear blue rosettes.HYUFD said:
Bradshaw represents Remain voting Exeter, not a Northern, Midlands or Welsh Leave voting Labour seatScott_xP said:1 -
As far as Blair is concerned it's the Euro all over again. He's never been interested in a political argument unless he's thought that he's already won it. Which is why the campaign to convince us to join the Euro sank without a trace.Foxy said:
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.CarlottaVance said:
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
The only surprising thing is that he's being more honest about it now than he was then.0 -
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.0 -
F1: Perez down to 26 to win. He was 61 a few days ago. That's a pretty dramatic shift, even though a circuit of straights should be Racing Point-friendly.
Intrigued to see how practice goes.
Edited extra bit: put a tiny sum on Stroll at 101 (with boost) each way to win. Just in case.0 -
Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=200 -
And then there was the Reliant Robin.Nigelb said:
Wouldn't want to run one of those into a concrete block at 30mph.MarqueeMark said:
I remember fifty years ago there were some vehicles that looked remarkably similar to that in their lack of any design element. "Invalid cariages". (Not sure that would be a great marketing campaign now!)Nigelb said:(FPT)
In five years it will be very obvious that they're going to stop making new ICE vehicles imminently, if they haven't already done so. (Honda, for example, will do so in 2022).Stocky said:
In five years?Nigelb said:
'Cos everyone will be buying electric, and it will become increasingly hard to run ICE vehicles.Stocky said:
Why is the market is going to collapse over the next five years?Dura_Ace said:
Limited to 112mph so it can fuck right off.NerysHughes said:Totally O/T, I have just had a drive in a Mercedes EQC400 (All Electric). The acceleration it has is simply astounding.
However, the EV revolution is certainly in full swing and I would not be buying any IC vehicle unless it was collectable or had otherwise rock solid residuals. The market is going to collapse over the next five years.
For the very large number of people who just run the car locally, this sort of thing will be the future. For about £4k new.
https://insideevs.com/news/458005/china-wuling-hong-guang-mini-sales-november/
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Invalid_carriage#/media/File:Invacar_1973_(4).JPG0 -
-
I agree with that.IanB2 said:FPT:
My worry would be that much of the good news - the vaccine cavalry in sight, and the expectation of a Brexit deal (hence the rising £) - is already baked into the markets. Thus one would think there is mostly downside risk.Stocky said:Stock market: I, Like @IanB2 , have been very bullish about stock markets - which seem to me to be defying gravity.
Having said that, the traditional "Santa Rally" in share prices could bring significant movement on the upside this year, as the timing will chime with vaccines going into arms.
Any views on this?
In the US, which was at record highs before the vaccine announcements and which is now just over 30,000 in expectation of yet another stimulus package, looks the most vulnerable. Despite our relief at Trump's presumed departure, the tough decisions are going to be stacking up on Biden's desk, and this and he won't be so market-friendly.
In the UK it all depends on the extent of January disruption, and a safety-first approach looks sensible.
The santa rally is usually reliable - originating from the tendency of investors to review their holdings during the holiday period and make new investments along with their new year resolutions - and has become a self fulfilling prophecy as punters pile in at this time of year in anticipation.
I've done pretty well so far from the vaccine boost - the Carnival shares I mentioned buying on here in the summer for just below £10 looked initially like a mistake, but are now rising toward £15, I've nearly doubled my money on Rolls Royce, am up about 50% on Royal Mail, and the other recovery shares I have - WH Smith, Lloyd's Bank, Shell, as well as various ITs like RIT, JMG, Temple Bar, are all doing well.
If there's a Brexit deal I may take an up spread bet on the FTSE in anticipation of Santa but look to close it between Xmas and New Year, rather than hold into the early days of January as usual, as the Jan 1 risk is still there. If there's no Brexit deal I'm not playing this year. I am also inclined to reduce risk by taking a down bet on the DOW while it's above 30,000; an insurance position it is worth sticking with into 2021.
Despite the above the bulk of my holdings are defensive, reflecting both outlook and character, and I'll be mostly sticking with the index linked bonds, gold, and safety-first funds like Troy Trojan, Ruffer and BNY Real Return until my pension arrives in 2022.
My equities have done well this year, after I went 90% cash in Feb, then reinvested in April once the peak had passed. That is going to be hard to replicate in terms of timing!
I expect a bit more of a rally, but there is misery to come, with many retail and hospitality failures in Q1. I am sceptical of airlines and cruise lines too. They simply don't look cheap to me, and are going to report further losses.
My best performing recovery stocks have been miners (ANTO, RIO and S32), and defensives that I bought at good prices in April (Rentokil, Synth), with my bank stocks fairly neutral (HSBA and STAN), though a few months ago they were substantially down. I have started some profit taking to rebalanced my portfolio.
I am bearish on the American markets, which look rather peaky. Republican Senators are deficit hawks in Dem administrations and deficit deniers in Republican ones. I see some harsh austerity coming in the US.
1 -
Trouble is, you can only (assuming its wise) "turn back the boats" in international waters - which doesn't exist in the Straits of Dover. The waters are either French (which we can't enter) or British (in which case the boats are our responsibility). But apart from that...HYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=20
2 -
Hopefully the Democrats can take at least one. Loeffler doesn't have incumbency and she's more crackers than Purdue, so Warnock might have a better chance.0
-
Vaccine has fcuked the anti lockdown grift obviouslyHYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=204 -
-
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation.HYUFD said:
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero.
A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.2 -
Tony Abbott did that in international waters.HYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=20
Can you draw a map of international waters in the Channel?0 -
BBC News - Covid: Wales 'must act now' insists health minister
"We lost all our business in the October half-term from the firebreak lockdown, which was a real first blow. We were promised everything would open up for Christmas and now we're in the same situation."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-551675130 -
In the Obama presidency he held all 3 branches of government and there GOP won a landslide in the House in the 2010 midterms, the left were also not as strong in 2010, they are now under AOC and will drive the agenda.Nigelb said:
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation.HYUFD said:
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero.
A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Americans did not vote for a shift left and to change much, they voted to get rid of Trump, that is it0 -
Evidence free burbling.HYUFD said:
In the Obama presidency he held all 3 branches of government and there GOP won a landslide in the House in the 2010 midterms, the left were also not as strong in 2010, they are now under AOC and will drive the agenda.Nigelb said:
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation.HYUFD said:
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero.
A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Americans did not vote for a shift left and to change much, they voted to get rid of Trump, that is it0 -
No, the passport to the elite is talking the right way and knowing the right people, same as it has always been. That being a racist prick has become sufficiently socially unacceptable that even an OE can't get away with it anymore is surely something to be welcomed.HYUFD said:4 -
Pragmatically, he was probably correct then; the Euro argument wasn't winnable at the time, and therefore not worth the expenditure of political capital.LostPassword said:
As far as Blair is concerned it's the Euro all over again. He's never been interested in a political argument unless he's thought that he's already won it. Which is why the campaign to convince us to join the Euro sank without a trace.Foxy said:
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.CarlottaVance said:
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
The only surprising thing is that he's being more honest about it now than he was then.
It's the same here. It doesn't matter that this government has set itself a task (making their version of Brexit a success) that would have taxed a leader with the steely determination of Thatcher in her pomp, the backroom dark arts of Wilson at his most cunning, the doggedness of Major, the charm of Blair, the analytics of Brown and the salesmanship and verve of early Cameron all at once. (Add the best things about May, Callaghan and anyone else if you want to.) It doesn't matter that we have a third rate Prime Minister with a fourth rate Cabinet whose only real talents are superficial bonhomie and understanding of gang dynamics.
He's won the right to try to do it his way. Nothing I have seen makes me confident that it will work, but that decision has been taken. And all we can do is hope.
But in the event, perish the thought, that this doesn't work, the Rejoin argument will inevitably be made, and if enough people are convinced by it, it will happen. Not immediately, but not never, either.1 -
I just wish the Nigel had the balls to say what he is thinking - sink the boats. Like the Italians did.HYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=200 -
Thanks IanB and Foxy - though I`ve just noticed a brain-fart in my original post. I said "bullish" where I should have said "bearish" - jeez what a rookie error. I`ve thrashed myself accordingly.Foxy said:
I agree with that.IanB2 said:FPT:
My worry would be that much of the good news - the vaccine cavalry in sight, and the expectation of a Brexit deal (hence the rising £) - is already baked into the markets. Thus one would think there is mostly downside risk.Stocky said:Stock market: I, Like @IanB2 , have been very bullish about stock markets - which seem to me to be defying gravity.
Having said that, the traditional "Santa Rally" in share prices could bring significant movement on the upside this year, as the timing will chime with vaccines going into arms.
Any views on this?
In the US, which was at record highs before the vaccine announcements and which is now just over 30,000 in expectation of yet another stimulus package, looks the most vulnerable. Despite our relief at Trump's presumed departure, the tough decisions are going to be stacking up on Biden's desk, and this and he won't be so market-friendly.
In the UK it all depends on the extent of January disruption, and a safety-first approach looks sensible.
The santa rally is usually reliable - originating from the tendency of investors to review their holdings during the holiday period and make new investments along with their new year resolutions - and has become a self fulfilling prophecy as punters pile in at this time of year in anticipation.
I've done pretty well so far from the vaccine boost - the Carnival shares I mentioned buying on here in the summer for just below £10 looked initially like a mistake, but are now rising toward £15, I've nearly doubled my money on Rolls Royce, am up about 50% on Royal Mail, and the other recovery shares I have - WH Smith, Lloyd's Bank, Shell, as well as various ITs like RIT, JMG, Temple Bar, are all doing well.
If there's a Brexit deal I may take an up spread bet on the FTSE in anticipation of Santa but look to close it between Xmas and New Year, rather than hold into the early days of January as usual, as the Jan 1 risk is still there. If there's no Brexit deal I'm not playing this year. I am also inclined to reduce risk by taking a down bet on the DOW while it's above 30,000; an insurance position it is worth sticking with into 2021.
Despite the above the bulk of my holdings are defensive, reflecting both outlook and character, and I'll be mostly sticking with the index linked bonds, gold, and safety-first funds like Troy Trojan, Ruffer and BNY Real Return until my pension arrives in 2022.
My equities have done well this year, after I went 90% cash in Feb, then reinvested in April once the peak had passed. That is going to be hard to replicate in terms of timing!
I expect a bit more of a rally, but there is misery to come, with many retail and hospitality failures in Q1. I am sceptical of airlines and cruise lines too. They simply don't look cheap to me, and are going to report further losses.
My best performing recovery stocks have been miners (ANTO, RIO and S32), and defensives that I bought at good prices in April (Rentokil, Synth), with my bank stocks fairly neutral (HSBA and STAN), though a few months ago they were substantially down. I have started some profit taking to rebalanced my portfolio.
I am bearish on the American markets, which look rather peaky. Republican Senators are deficit hawks in Dem administrations and deficit deniers in Republican ones. I see some harsh austerity coming in the US.
I`ve done well of late on IAG shares (BA). Bought at 96p, sold at £1.60 - within a month.
My portfolio is very cautious overall at the moment. But I do think a Santa rally could be a thing this year. And agree that buying now with a view to selling between Xmas Day and the New Year is the best tactic.
I`ve recently bought Flutter Entertainment shares (BF and PP), as I don`t think the humongous sums taken in the election are factored in. Though I will sell in short term due to concerns about reputational damage due to settlement delays. But DYOR blah blah.0 -
The main problem is the power wielded by the Senate Majority Leader. If that's McConnell then he won't allow Biden the opportunity to compromise with centrist GOP Senators, because he well simply refuse to bring things to the Senate to be voted on.Nigelb said:
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation.HYUFD said:
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero.
A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.0 -
Yeah- it's Farage whipping up an angry storm and ignoring the practical difficulties of governments who have to live in the real world.Philip_Thompson said:
Tony Abbott did that in international waters.HYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=20
Can you draw a map of international waters in the Channel?
So no change there, then.1 -
That's balls. They could do interceptions in British waters, load the refugees into lifeboats, tow them west until the British and French EEZs diverge (say as far as Roscoff) and leave them just outside the French EEZ with only enough fuel to get to France. That's exactly what the RAN did with boats from Indonesia.CarlottaVance said:
Trouble is, you can only (assuming its wise) "turn back the boats" in international waters - which doesn't exist in the Straits of Dover. The waters are either French (which we can't enter) or British (in which case the boats are our responsibility). But apart from that...HYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=20
Saying it "can't" be done is absolute cobblers. It absolutely could be done but the UK government doesn't have the stomach for it.
I am not commending it as a course of action but to pretend its impossible is just dishonest cowardice. But what else would you expect from tories. That virtue isn't going to signal itself.0 -
Two words make that point - Merrick Garland.LostPassword said:
The main problem is the power wielded by the Senate Majority Leader. If that's McConnell then he won't allow Biden the opportunity to compromise with centrist GOP Senators, because he well simply refuse to bring things to the Senate to be voted on.Nigelb said:
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation.HYUFD said:
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero.
A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Who. after all, was a compromise in order to get Republican votes.1 -
The problem is that changing political views takes time and effort. The Eurosceptics didn't shrug their shoulders in 1998 and say that the time wasn't right to win political arguments on the EU. They fought the trench warfare of changing public opinion.Stuartinromford said:
Pragmatically, he was probably correct then; the Euro argument wasn't winnable at the time, and therefore not worth the expenditure of political capital.LostPassword said:
As far as Blair is concerned it's the Euro all over again. He's never been interested in a political argument unless he's thought that he's already won it. Which is why the campaign to convince us to join the Euro sank without a trace.Foxy said:
Over, for now, he said. Not over forever, obviously.CarlottaVance said:
I don't think Rejoin will be on any major parties manifesto in 2024, but quite likely for the one after that.
The only surprising thing is that he's being more honest about it now than he was then.
It's the same here. It doesn't matter that this government has set itself a task (making their version of Brexit a success) that would have taxed a leader with the steely determination of Thatcher in her pomp, the backroom dark arts of Wilson at his most cunning, the doggedness of Major, the charm of Blair, the analytics of Brown and the salesmanship and verve of early Cameron all at once. (Add the best things about May, Callaghan and anyone else if you want to.) It doesn't matter that we have a third rate Prime Minister with a fourth rate Cabinet whose only real talents are superficial bonhomie and understanding of gang dynamics.
He's won the right to try to do it his way. Nothing I have seen makes me confident that it will work, but that decision has been taken. And all we can do is hope.
But in the event, perish the thought, that this doesn't work, the Rejoin argument will inevitably be made, and if enough people are convinced by it, it will happen. Not immediately, but not never, either.
That's why the time was never right for us to join the Euro, but we now find ourselves out of the EU and heading for a thin trade deal at best.1 -
If the Democrats win the Senate, I predict the GOP would win a landslide of huge proportions in the 2022 midterms, Pelosi and Schumer backed by AOC would push a left agenda every day of the new Congress and Biden would be too weak to say no.Nigelb said:
Evidence free burbling.HYUFD said:
In the Obama presidency he held all 3 branches of government and there GOP won a landslide in the House in the 2010 midterms, the left were also not as strong in 2010, they are now under AOC and will drive the agenda.Nigelb said:
There is no compromise with the GOP - did you not follow Obama's presidency at all ? And that was when they were relatively moderate compared to the present incarnation.HYUFD said:
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.
As has been pointed out to you above, a 50/50 Senate (with a Harris casting vote) would still need the votes of the right of centre Democrats to get any legislation through. The chances of AOC "pushing the agenda" are zero.
A Republican majority led by McConnell would block everything, as they did before.
Americans did not vote for a shift left and to change much, they voted to get rid of Trump, that is it
Americans were not voting for the left, they narrowly voted to remove Trump, that was it, beyond that they want no further change and certainly no change to the cultural left0 -
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So the fact that the Tories might be trying to avoid towing boatloads full of refugees out into the middle of the sea somehow shows the Tories are shits?Dura_Ace said:
That's balls. They could do interceptions in British waters, load the refugees into lifeboats, tow them west until the British and French EEZs diverge (say as far as Roscoff) and leave them just outside the French EEZ with only enough fuel to get to France. That's exactly what the RAN did with boats from Indonesia.CarlottaVance said:
Trouble is, you can only (assuming its wise) "turn back the boats" in international waters - which doesn't exist in the Straits of Dover. The waters are either French (which we can't enter) or British (in which case the boats are our responsibility). But apart from that...HYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=20
Saying it "can't" be done is absolute cobblers. It absolutely could be done but the UK government doesn't have the stomach for it.
I am not commending it as a course of action but to pretend its impossible is just dishonest cowardice. But what else would you expect from tories. That virtue isn't going to signal itself.
I mean don't get me wrong - I am no longer a member of the party but that is some tortuous logic.
Oh and where were you yesterday during the wet weather bike debate?3 -
Isn't the issue that once they're in our waters they have a right to claim asylum so can't just be then dumped back into international waters?Dura_Ace said:
That's balls. They could do interceptions in British waters, load the refugees into lifeboats, tow them west until the British and French EEZs diverge (say as far as Roscoff) and leave them just outside the French EEZ with only enough fuel to get to France. That's exactly what the RAN did with boats from Indonesia.CarlottaVance said:
Trouble is, you can only (assuming its wise) "turn back the boats" in international waters - which doesn't exist in the Straits of Dover. The waters are either French (which we can't enter) or British (in which case the boats are our responsibility). But apart from that...HYUFD said:Farage pushing 'stop the boats' like his close friend Tony Abbott did in 2013
https://twitter.com/LeaveEUOfficial/status/1334803354699108353?s=20
Saying it "can't" be done is absolute cobblers. It absolutely could be done but the UK government doesn't have the stomach for it.
I am not commending it as a course of action but to pretend its impossible is just dishonest cowardice. But what else would you expect from tories. That virtue isn't going to signal itself.
That's why the Aussies intercepted them in international waters not domestic waters.
Otherwise what's to stop us from rounding people up on the beach, then dumping them in international waters like you propose?0 -
The Democrats may win control (just) of the Executive and Legislative branches, but they won't win the Judicial - not before the next Presidential anyway.HYUFD said:
It would mean Biden forced to compromise with the GOP, not the Democrats in control of every branch of Federal Government and AOC and Pelosi pushing the agenda leading to Tea Party 2 with bells on and a huge conservative backlash in the 2022 midtermsNigelb said:
There is no prospect of that, except in the fevered imagination of the Trumpaloopas.HYUFD said:
That will lower Democratic turnout too and the prospect of AOC and the far left driving the agenda will push GOP turnout once Biden is confirmed as EC winner by the EC on Dec 14thkinabalu said:
Which might happen given the orange hued Love Object is not on the ballot for this.HYUFD said:As Nate Silver said yesterday be very wary of these Georgia polls, they imply a much lower GOP turnout than at the Presidential election.
A Republican win would mean at least two years of legislative standstill, if not outright budget sabotage.0
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