In The Bleak Midwinter – politicalbetting.com

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

In Guernsey (now 1 COVID case, in quarantine) my experience is that hospitality is doing very well post lockdown - out for lunch yesterday with friends - packed out on a Tuesday

That's what it will be like in the Spring here.

It is getting through the winter that has to happen first though.

You have a lot of faith in the manufacture, distribution and administration of a vaccine in numbers to make any difference by the summer let alone spring. It’s not as if no other major events are happening.

The first three vaccines are already in full production, we’re only a couple of weeks away from formal approvals and within days there’s going to be nurses in almost every care home.

All three vaccines will arrive in the millions before Christmas, there’s a task force identifying those most at risk who will head the queues, with the military helping out with logistics where required.

Given the government is borrowing £1bn a day at the moment, there is a huge incentive to get everyone who wants a vaccine done by the spring - so that life can return to something approaching normal.

geoffw said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Sandpit said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1331537117084856320?s=20

I know we all love to take the piss out of politicians, but the simple act having someone in No.10 pick this up and reply to it will bring smiles to the face, not only of that one kid, but many more who will see the story.

I have two young nephews who just replied to me that they’re so happy Santa will still be coming to visit a month from now, despite everything else that’s happened this year.

And in the households where Santa can't afford much this year? Raising peoples hopes, but never having to deal with the outcome, a familiar ploy from Boris.

If its backed up by news of an extension of the uplift in universal credit, or a xmas bonus, great, otherwise its promising things to kids with other peoples money.

I thought we had settled on the fact that Santa is a reactionary extremist with extensive criminal behaviour, including child protection issues. And almost certainly runs a xenophobic sweatshop.

Isn't he a superspreader?

And he gets a surprising amount of his stock from China. Just saying.

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

In Guernsey (now 1 COVID case, in quarantine) my experience is that hospitality is doing very well post lockdown - out for lunch yesterday with friends - packed out on a Tuesday

That's what it will be like in the Spring here.

It is getting through the winter that has to happen first though.

You have a lot of faith in the manufacture, distribution and administration of a vaccine in numbers to make any difference by the summer let alone spring. It’s not as if no other major events are happening.

You're right I do.

This is a matter of national security and the military have been quite rightly drafted in to deal with the logistics. We are in a war against COVID right now, we are running a wartime budget deficit and as a matter of national security the military must do whatever it takes to ensure the logistics of vaccine rollout are implemented in full.

I have every reason to be confident they will succeed.

My suspicion is that Valentine's Day is the day to be optimistic for life to begin to phase back to normal. Valentine's Day fortunately is a key celebration for couples who will not need to be socially distanced from each other. So if every region can be in Tier 2 or below by that point then restaurants should be able to sell out every single table they can squeeze in to a couple.

By Mothers Day I'm reasonably optimistic that most of the country will be in Tier 1 or below.

By June I think the Tiers will be behind us and the pandemic will be essentially over.

Last year, the UK vaccinated 15 million people against the flu, in a few months, without any especial effort.

This suggests that, provided the supplies of vaccines are available, getting 15 million people vaccinated in a few moths should be perfectly possible. More would require more effort, but when we get to 4.5 times that, we are talking about the whole population.

It is worth noting that the elderly age groups (and vulnerable people) being prioritised for the COVID jab are those that are encouraged to the take the flu jab each year.

CarlottaVance said:

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

Indeed, it's often forgotten how precarious the Conservative position was in 1981. The riots in the summer, the near rebellion of men like Prior and Gilmour and the evolution of the SDP all looked huge threats.

I was a Liberal Party member in London and I vividly remember canvassing in a staunch Conservative area one freezing cold evening in early March 1982 as early preparation for the local elections due that May. I went down one street which had been marked up as 75% Conservative on a previous canvass but in many houses I found contempt for Thatcher, disillusionment with the Conservatives and strong interest in the new SDP.

I later checked the return - the 75% was now 40% solid Conservative and I estimated SDP support around 25% with a lot of Don't Knows.

I have two views on this - first, had the Falklands War not happened and a number of senior Conservatives gone over to the SDP in early and mid 1982, the Conservatives would have lost the election. Second, the Falklands War didn't just save the Conservatives but it also saved Labour. It ensured Labour remained the only credible alternative Government which would not have been the case had the Alliance achieved a significant breakthrough in seats in a 1983 or 1984 election.

The counter argument is the economic recovery instigated by the Conservatives after the first three Howe Budgets would have ensured re-election in 1984 even if there had been no Falklands conflict.

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fishing said:

Sandpit said:

Wouldn’t want to be in the Chancellor’s shoes today. Anything that’s not directly related to pandemic spending is likely to be under serious review. After riding a wave of relative popularity, he’s now going to disappoint almost everyone to some degree.

You wait until the serious tax rises come.

I've always thought he's the most overrated politician since Tony Blair. His only reflex is to fling lots of borrowed money at every problem, and not even particularly competently at that. In the next six months we'll see if I was right or not.

Serious tax rises would be an economically illiterate absurd idea.

Serious tax cuts would be better.

We have to grow ourselves out of this, sure, but we should steady the ship first - I`m not sure about tax cuts.

The difference between 2020 and 2007 is that there is no structural deficit this time around.

We have a deficit not because we are structurally overspending as we were in 2007 even before the GFC hit, but because there is a pandemic and the economy is depressed.

We couldn't "grow our way out of the deficit" in 2010 as the economy was growing and the deficit was structural. That's not the case today.

Today the deficit is entirely due to the pandemic, it is temporal not structural. Tax cuts would allow more spending and investment and allow the economy to grow which will close the deficit. Tax rises will kick the economy while its down and strangle any chance of growth.

If in 2-3 years we see that we do actually have a structural deficit after some sustained growth then that would be the time to look at closing the deficit. Not yet, it is too premature today.

I think what you meant to say was that the difference between 2020 and 2007 is that they can't blame it on the Labour Party.
Cyclically adjusted borrowing in 2006 was 3.0% of GDP. In 2019 was 2.5% of GDP. That 0.5% difference is a very small number on which to claim that the entire fiscal outlook is different, especially as debt was 33% of GDP in 2006 and 87% of GDP in 2019. I have tried to educate you on this subject before...

Of that 87% a lot of it doesn't attract interest and I'm not sure you can class it as debt if no interest is payable. I guess the issue is that liability needs to be rolled over and if QE isn't available at that point it becomes real.

My big worry is that the west is rapidly exhausting debt monetisation and it's our generation (and our kids) that is going to be left picking up the pieces. Our parents generation won't be around to suffer from the damage that they are inflicting on the economy with the huge debt they are running up.

I hadn't thought of the debt rollover/QE interchange but had kind of assumed that when BoE-held debt expires then the BoE could purchase some new debt to replace that which they held which has expired and it would not be considered QE?

My understanding was that the Bank is operating to a QE limit, which was raised earlier this year, which acts kind of like the drama we get perennially from the States when they raise their debt limit. Once risen the limit is never dropped back down, so if the debt expires then they can replace that within their pre-existing limit.

DavidL said:

On the previous thread I gave a couple of examples about how we are failing to deal with Covid. The example was my daughter returned from France yesterday. She spent the morning wandering around terminal 5 (thought it was brilliant) and then using public transport to return to Dundee so that she could self isolate for 2 weeks whilst her partner continues to deliver food to vulnerable, shielding customers. This is irrational.

The second example was my nephew who hasn't been tested despite having 5 of 8 flatmates being positive for the virus because he has no symptoms. When are we ever going to come to grips with asymptomatic transmission? He has to self isolate but my daughter's partner doesn't. This is irrational.

A third and broader example is in @Cyclefree's thread header. Instead of using highly regulated, properly equipped hospitality venues we are allowing people to get together in house parties of up to 6 with no masks, no social distancing, nothing. This is irrational.

We also have a situation in Scotland where the entire country is at least 1 and typically 2 bands higher than it should be going on the published infection rates in the community. The economic consequences of this are horrendous but barely discussed. If the original banding is thought to be too high change it. But for goodness sake don't give explanations which MAKE NO SENSE AT ALL ON THE KNOWN FACTS.

We have simply not got to grip with what works and what doesn't. That is why we let people go abroad on holiday this year. That is why we can't make up our mind whether to allow people into their offices or not but think its ok for them to be on building sites.

I am not saying that this is easy or that people have been stupid (much). I am conscious that it is very easy sitting on a laptop to skip over inconvenient facts and uncertainties. But I want our governments to get a grip. That means that Christmas lunch is safer in a restaurant than in a house. It means that we need to test all those who have suffered serious exposure whether they have symptoms or not. And it means we don't stop businesses that can operate safely from carrying on their trade.

Agreed.
And the entire communications aspect has been pretty much godawful throughout.

We had the contradictory messages over summer (whiplashing from "Work at Home" to "Go to your workplace or lose your job" to "Bugger, oops, work at home for God's sake!")

They've messed up briefings and statistics/graphs by putting unnecessary or potentially misleading ones out when the completely accurate and appropriate ones would have done the job perfectly.

That last is inexcusable. Simply putting up the central forecasts and most likely ones, and commenting that "obviously, the worst case is much worse" would have more than supported their case. Focusing on the actual admissions and deaths trajectories, pointing out how these each lag infections, and showing how they contribute to the most likely case would have been easy.

As it is, they gave a gift to the denialists and Toby Youngs who instantly focused on the most unsupportable or excessive ones, aimed all the discussion on those, and then acted as though discrediting those discredited the entire case. Really stupid, and a total failure of communication strategy.

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

In Guernsey (now 1 COVID case, in quarantine) my experience is that hospitality is doing very well post lockdown - out for lunch yesterday with friends - packed out on a Tuesday

That's what it will be like in the Spring here.

It is getting through the winter that has to happen first though.

You have a lot of faith in the manufacture, distribution and administration of a vaccine in numbers to make any difference by the summer let alone spring. It’s not as if no other major events are happening.

You're right I do.

This is a matter of national security and the military have been quite rightly drafted in to deal with the logistics. We are in a war against COVID right now, we are running a wartime budget deficit and as a matter of national security the military must do whatever it takes to ensure the logistics of vaccine rollout are implemented in full.

I have every reason to be confident they will succeed.

My suspicion is that Valentine's Day is the day to be optimistic for life to begin to phase back to normal. Valentine's Day fortunately is a key celebration for couples who will not need to be socially distanced from each other. So if every region can be in Tier 2 or below by that point then restaurants should be able to sell out every single table they can squeeze in to a couple.

By Mothers Day I'm reasonably optimistic that most of the country will be in Tier 1 or below.

By June I think the Tiers will be behind us and the pandemic will be essentially over.

Last year, the UK vaccinated 15 million people against the flu, in a few months, without any especial effort.

This suggests that, provided the supplies of vaccines are available, getting 15 million people vaccinated in a few moths should be perfectly possible. More would require more effort, but when we get to 4.5 times that, we are talking about the whole population.

It is worth noting that the elderly age groups (and vulnerable people) being prioritised for the COVID jab are those that are encouraged to the take the flu jab each year.

Indeed. The only noticeable complication is the fact that people get the flu jab once whereas this needs to be two jabs spaced four weeks apart.

Being realistic manufacturing supplies is going to be a bigger constraint than the logistics of rolling it out.

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1331537117084856320?s=20

Heartwarming, eh? Don`t fall for it though. This is what Boris actually wrote:

"Dear Monti,

Jeez. All the elves are furloughed. It`s a looking a bit dodge this year.

If – if – he makes it – unlikely - hand sanitiser is a good idea, but I`m afraid things are worse that you thought. Who the fuck can afford cookies this year?

You are right, the scientists are very busy, so I`ve had banters with my friend Toby. He`s a jolly fine fellow. He suggests you use Granny as a human shield.

Be sure to hide under the blankets or Mr Covid will come get ya!! Just a joke - of course, we will have to wait 14 days to see if you get it.

Best wishes,
Boris
p.s. You can`t spell government. (Memo to Williamson.)

stodge said:

CarlottaVance said:

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

Indeed, it's often forgotten how precarious the Conservative position was in 1981. The riots in the summer, the near rebellion of men like Prior and Gilmour and the evolution of the SDP all looked huge threats.

I was a Liberal Party member in London and I vividly remember canvassing in a staunch Conservative area one freezing cold evening in early March 1982 as early preparation for the local elections due that May. I went down one street which had been marked up as 75% Conservative on a previous canvass but in many houses I found contempt for Thatcher, disillusionment with the Conservatives and strong interest in the new SDP.

I later checked the return - the 75% was now 40% solid Conservative and I estimated SDP support around 25% with a lot of Don't Knows.

I have two views on this - first, had the Falklands War not happened and a number of senior Conservatives gone over to the SDP in early and mid 1982, the Conservatives would have lost the election. Second, the Falklands War didn't just save the Conservatives but it also saved Labour. It ensured Labour remained the only credible alternative Government which would not have been the case had the Alliance achieved a significant breakthrough in seats in a 1983 or 1984 election.

The counter argument is the economic recovery instigated by the Conservatives after the first three Howe Budgets would have ensured re-election in 1984 even if there had been no Falklands conflict.

A good point.

Wasn't New Labour ostensibly the SDP by another name, and should someone like Starmer ever win an election, it will also be as the SDP by another name.

Malmesbury said:

Last year, the UK vaccinated 15 million people against the flu, in a few months, without any especial effort.

This suggests that, provided the supplies of vaccines are available, getting 15 million people vaccinated in a few moths should be perfectly possible. More would require more effort, but when we get to 4.5 times that, we are talking about the whole population.

It is worth noting that the elderly age groups (and vulnerable people) being prioritised for the COVID jab are those that are encouraged to the take the flu jab each year.

Yes, the two key elements to that are "in a few months" and remember it's not 15 million, it's 30 million because it's 15 million people twice so it's a greater logistical challenge than you seem to think.

In Newham, there are 78,000 people over the age of 50 (we are a young part of the country which might explain the lesser impact of second wave at this time, just a thought) so that means 156,000 separate vaccination shots. A number of those will have mobility challenges and other issues which mean we can't all troop over to ExCel and get jab one and return three weeks later for jab two.

It's possible a number will refuse the vaccine for various reasons - we don't know yet though I imagine there'll be a big public information campaign to urge us to take the shots - but it still looks a big undertaking from where I'm sitting even with military involvement.

How are we going to check it reaches the right people? How do we ensure younger people don't jump the queue? What about those who are, and let's be blunt about this, living off the grid or below the radar and don't want the authorities to know they exist for whatever reason?

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

In Guernsey (now 1 COVID case, in quarantine) my experience is that hospitality is doing very well post lockdown - out for lunch yesterday with friends - packed out on a Tuesday

That's what it will be like in the Spring here.

It is getting through the winter that has to happen first though.

You have a lot of faith in the manufacture, distribution and administration of a vaccine in numbers to make any difference by the summer let alone spring. It’s not as if no other major events are happening.

You're right I do.

This is a matter of national security and the military have been quite rightly drafted in to deal with the logistics. We are in a war against COVID right now, we are running a wartime budget deficit and as a matter of national security the military must do whatever it takes to ensure the logistics of vaccine rollout are implemented in full.

I have every reason to be confident they will succeed.

My suspicion is that Valentine's Day is the day to be optimistic for life to begin to phase back to normal. Valentine's Day fortunately is a key celebration for couples who will not need to be socially distanced from each other. So if every region can be in Tier 2 or below by that point then restaurants should be able to sell out every single table they can squeeze in to a couple.

By Mothers Day I'm reasonably optimistic that most of the country will be in Tier 1 or below.

By June I think the Tiers will be behind us and the pandemic will be essentially over.

Last year, the UK vaccinated 15 million people against the flu, in a few months, without any especial effort.

This suggests that, provided the supplies of vaccines are available, getting 15 million people vaccinated in a few moths should be perfectly possible. More would require more effort, but when we get to 4.5 times that, we are talking about the whole population.

It is worth noting that the elderly age groups (and vulnerable people) being prioritised for the COVID jab are those that are encouraged to the take the flu jab each year.

Yes seems like the 95% problem or whatever its called, where you can sort out almost everything it's just the final few % that cause the problems.

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

stodge said:

Morning all

It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.

My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.

Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

I way staying in a cheap backpackers in Borneo when I heard the news that Thatcher was going. In those pre Internet days, there was little news to follow there. The owner came into the hostel lounge with a shocked face and announced the news to a dozen or so of us assorted travellers, from Britain, Australia, Germany, Netherlands and France. The owner was even more shocked as the guests rose in a spontaneous cheer!

I was at secondary school in Scotland when news of her exit broke. To say that it was well-received would be an understatement. It felt like a baleful presence had been removed from our lives. Of course we had six or seven more years of Tory rule, but it didn't weigh so heavily with Major in charge.

kle4 said:

Malmesbury said:

Philip_Thompson said:

nichomar said:

Philip_Thompson said:

CarlottaVance said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

In Guernsey (now 1 COVID case, in quarantine) my experience is that hospitality is doing very well post lockdown - out for lunch yesterday with friends - packed out on a Tuesday

That's what it will be like in the Spring here.

It is getting through the winter that has to happen first though.

You have a lot of faith in the manufacture, distribution and administration of a vaccine in numbers to make any difference by the summer let alone spring. It’s not as if no other major events are happening.

You're right I do.

This is a matter of national security and the military have been quite rightly drafted in to deal with the logistics. We are in a war against COVID right now, we are running a wartime budget deficit and as a matter of national security the military must do whatever it takes to ensure the logistics of vaccine rollout are implemented in full.

I have every reason to be confident they will succeed.

My suspicion is that Valentine's Day is the day to be optimistic for life to begin to phase back to normal. Valentine's Day fortunately is a key celebration for couples who will not need to be socially distanced from each other. So if every region can be in Tier 2 or below by that point then restaurants should be able to sell out every single table they can squeeze in to a couple.

By Mothers Day I'm reasonably optimistic that most of the country will be in Tier 1 or below.

By June I think the Tiers will be behind us and the pandemic will be essentially over.

Last year, the UK vaccinated 15 million people against the flu, in a few months, without any especial effort.

This suggests that, provided the supplies of vaccines are available, getting 15 million people vaccinated in a few moths should be perfectly possible. More would require more effort, but when we get to 4.5 times that, we are talking about the whole population.

It is worth noting that the elderly age groups (and vulnerable people) being prioritised for the COVID jab are those that are encouraged to the take the flu jab each year.

Yes seems like the 95% problem or whatever its called, where you can sort out almost everything it's just the final few % that cause the problems.

If we get 15 million people vaccinated - that's everyone over 60, I think.

Repeat 3 more times (and a bit) - and that's everyone.

RochdalePioneers said:

FPT:
Labour have little choice but to back the deal and hang it round Shagger's neck like the albatross it is. As the alternative - no deal - would be at least a little worse than whatever deal he agrees, its a question of how badly we lose not whether we lose at all.

If Labour voted against then it would have a Hard Time in the former red wall seats. However, voting for a deal that will sink whats left of industry in the red wall isn't going to be a vote winner either so portraying it as the "Boris Brexit" is critical. If as openly suggested by Nissan they shut their factory Labour need to show that the Tories wilfully lied to everyone about an oven ready deal to make things better.

Agreed.

All the announcement of Labour backing does is remove the inevitability of no deal.
Just how rubbish the deal might be is entirely down to the current and previous Conservative governments.

https://uk.video.search.yahoo.com/yhs/search?fr=yhs-domaindev-st_emea&hsimp=yhs-st_emea&hspart=domaindev&p=Ben+and+mary+TV+adverts#id=11&vid=504f5191816508483b0cd770e76da4f9&action=view

An theme for your next PPM Mr Boris.....

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Foremain, there were several voluntary taxes (donate what you like, I think) in the latter half of the 17th century. They actually raised significant sums of money.

Isn't the National Lottery essentially a voluntary tax?

RobD said:

Fishing said:

Sandpit said:

Wouldn’t want to be in the Chancellor’s shoes today. Anything that’s not directly related to pandemic spending is likely to be under serious review. After riding a wave of relative popularity, he’s now going to disappoint almost everyone to some degree.

You wait until the serious tax rises come.

I've always thought he's the most overrated politician since Tony Blair. His only reflex is to fling lots of borrowed money at every problem, and not even particularly competently at that. In the next six months we'll see if I was right or not.

I thought the various furlough schemes had been viewed as a success?

Only for those that got free holidays

eristdoof said:

stodge said:

Morning all

It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.

My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.

Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.

As part of the seismic changes the EEC had just 7 weeks before gained 16M people overnight with only three member states (Germany, France and the UK) having agreed to it.

The other curious point to this story was that John Major was not really on the radar as next PM at this stage. He was already Chancellor, but was not widely known except ba those who followed politics. It was only once he appeared to be the "better than Hurd and not a Hestletine" candidate, when he became favourite to be the new PM.

What got John Major over the line were the polls the weekend after Thatcher's departure showing he would do as well against Kinnock's Labour as Heseltine if not better.

There's a key point for the future - the Conservative Party (and it's not alone in this) will only remove a leader when it's clear the leader itself is the problem and the problem would be solved by another leader.

With Thatcher, Labour led by ten points, with Heseltine, the parties were level. Conservative backbenchers with small majorities faced electoral oblivion with Thatcher but a chance for salvation with Heseltine. That encouraged Heseltine to stand.

Last year, once it became clear only Johnson, of all the leadership challengers, could deliver a majority for the Conservatives, the leadership election, as a contest, was over and once Prime Minister, the General Election was also over as a contest. The only way a non-Conservative Government could have been elected would have been for the Conservative-Leave vote to have been split with a sizeable chunk going to Farage. A divided Leave vote and a divided Remain vote would have produced a Commons with no overall majority (again).

MattW said:

BTW.

A small piece of good news.

Just had a telephone meeting with the Cancer Nurse, and the latest set of blood tests are all but one back in the normal range. Not bad for 3 months after treatment, and one nightmare over for now.

Which means I am basically clear of current consequences of this Hairy Cell Leukemia subject to the usual prognosis of a recurrence in a decade or two.

Anecdata: I was separately in hospital for the blood test clinic on Monday, and the car parks were the fullest I have ever seen them. Had to park a longish walk away, despite there being visitor / companion restrictions in place. At least here (Sherwood Forest Hospitals) a full outpatient programme is up and running.

My wife just had letter with 3rd cancellation of telephone appointment that replaced original consultant appointment , now planned for late February. Hard to believe they cannot do a 5 minute telephone call in almost 6 months.

Malmesbury said:

stodge said:

Malmesbury said:

Last year, the UK vaccinated 15 million people against the flu, in a few months, without any especial effort.

This suggests that, provided the supplies of vaccines are available, getting 15 million people vaccinated in a few moths should be perfectly possible. More would require more effort, but when we get to 4.5 times that, we are talking about the whole population.

It is worth noting that the elderly age groups (and vulnerable people) being prioritised for the COVID jab are those that are encouraged to the take the flu jab each year.

Yes, the two key elements to that are "in a few months" and remember it's not 15 million, it's 30 million because it's 15 million people twice so it's a greater logistical challenge than you seem to think.

In Newham, there are 78,000 people over the age of 50 (we are a young part of the country which might explain the lesser impact of second wave at this time, just a thought) so that means 156,000 separate vaccination shots. A number of those will have mobility challenges and other issues which mean we can't all troop over to ExCel and get jab one and return three weeks later for jab two.

It's possible a number will refuse the vaccine for various reasons - we don't know yet though I imagine there'll be a big public information campaign to urge us to take the shots - but it still looks a big undertaking from where I'm sitting even with military involvement.

How are we going to check it reaches the right people? How do we ensure younger people don't jump the queue? What about those who are, and let's be blunt about this, living off the grid or below the radar and don't want the authorities to know they exist for whatever reason?

The existing lists of people etc for flu shots that happen every year can be used to contact and setup the appointments for elderly and at risk groups. That's what the GPs do each year....

Those with mobility challenges etc get their flu shots in a normal year, after all.

Two visits to the vaccination clinic (or three, including the flu shot) are not going to cause the end of the world.

The aim is to get a high take-up of the vaccine(s) - some will try and jump the queue. Some will refuse.

I wonder if we will see a grey market appear for private vaccines in the early stages? There’s going to be a lot of companies with large numbers of public-facing staff or large offices who would be interested, as well as people who travel around for work.

MaxPB said:

Philip_Thompson said:

MaxPB said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fishing said:

Sandpit said:

Wouldn’t want to be in the Chancellor’s shoes today. Anything that’s not directly related to pandemic spending is likely to be under serious review. After riding a wave of relative popularity, he’s now going to disappoint almost everyone to some degree.

You wait until the serious tax rises come.

I've always thought he's the most overrated politician since Tony Blair. His only reflex is to fling lots of borrowed money at every problem, and not even particularly competently at that. In the next six months we'll see if I was right or not.

Serious tax rises would be an economically illiterate absurd idea.

Serious tax cuts would be better.

We have to grow ourselves out of this, sure, but we should steady the ship first - I`m not sure about tax cuts.

The difference between 2020 and 2007 is that there is no structural deficit this time around.

We have a deficit not because we are structurally overspending as we were in 2007 even before the GFC hit, but because there is a pandemic and the economy is depressed.

We couldn't "grow our way out of the deficit" in 2010 as the economy was growing and the deficit was structural. That's not the case today.

Today the deficit is entirely due to the pandemic, it is temporal not structural. Tax cuts would allow more spending and investment and allow the economy to grow which will close the deficit. Tax rises will kick the economy while its down and strangle any chance of growth.

If in 2-3 years we see that we do actually have a structural deficit after some sustained growth then that would be the time to look at closing the deficit. Not yet, it is too premature today.

I think what you meant to say was that the difference between 2020 and 2007 is that they can't blame it on the Labour Party.
Cyclically adjusted borrowing in 2006 was 3.0% of GDP. In 2019 was 2.5% of GDP. That 0.5% difference is a very small number on which to claim that the entire fiscal outlook is different, especially as debt was 33% of GDP in 2006 and 87% of GDP in 2019. I have tried to educate you on this subject before...

Of that 87% a lot of it doesn't attract interest and I'm not sure you can class it as debt if no interest is payable. I guess the issue is that liability needs to be rolled over and if QE isn't available at that point it becomes real.

My big worry is that the west is rapidly exhausting debt monetisation and it's our generation (and our kids) that is going to be left picking up the pieces. Our parents generation won't be around to suffer from the damage that they are inflicting on the economy with the huge debt they are running up.

I hadn't thought of the debt rollover/QE interchange but had kind of assumed that when BoE-held debt expires then the BoE could purchase some new debt to replace that which they held which has expired and it would not be considered QE?

My understanding was that the Bank is operating to a QE limit, which was raised earlier this year, which acts kind of like the drama we get perennially from the States when they raise their debt limit. Once risen the limit is never dropped back down, so if the debt expires then they can replace that within their pre-existing limit.

Yes it does operate on a ceiling, my point is that we're rapidly approaching the limit of QE and the Bank may need to reduce asset holdings to gain credibility with markets in the future.

Well indeed reducing holdings may be necessary at some point, though more likely an increase in holdings will at some point need to be avoided and what is already held will simply remain held forever. Like the distinction between deficit and debt, we're never going to repay the debt (as opposed to rollover) but will need to hold down the deficit - the Bank will need to stop increasing QE but is never realistically going to remove its holdings, they will just roll it over.

Tegnell talks realistically.

Top epidemiologist says Sweden has no signs of herd immunity curbing coronavirus
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/527478-top-epidemiologist-says-sweden-has-no-signs-of-herd-immunity-curbing-coronavirus
Sweden's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country.

“The issue of herd immunity is difficult,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, said at a news briefing, according to Bloomberg News.

“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now," Tegnell said...

...“I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behavior enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”

Bloomberg noted that Swedes have faced more exposure to the coronavirus than residents in other Nordic areas and data published this week showed that every third person tested in Stockholm has tested positive for antibodies.

Philip_Thompson said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Stocky said:

Philip_Thompson said:

Fishing said:

Sandpit said:

Wouldn’t want to be in the Chancellor’s shoes today. Anything that’s not directly related to pandemic spending is likely to be under serious review. After riding a wave of relative popularity, he’s now going to disappoint almost everyone to some degree.

You wait until the serious tax rises come.

I've always thought he's the most overrated politician since Tony Blair. His only reflex is to fling lots of borrowed money at every problem, and not even particularly competently at that. In the next six months we'll see if I was right or not.

Serious tax rises would be an economically illiterate absurd idea.

Serious tax cuts would be better.

We have to grow ourselves out of this, sure, but we should steady the ship first - I`m not sure about tax cuts.

The difference between 2020 and 2007 is that there is no structural deficit this time around.

We have a deficit not because we are structurally overspending as we were in 2007 even before the GFC hit, but because there is a pandemic and the economy is depressed.

We couldn't "grow our way out of the deficit" in 2010 as the economy was growing and the deficit was structural. That's not the case today.

Today the deficit is entirely due to the pandemic, it is temporal not structural. Tax cuts would allow more spending and investment and allow the economy to grow which will close the deficit. Tax rises will kick the economy while its down and strangle any chance of growth.

If in 2-3 years we see that we do actually have a structural deficit after some sustained growth then that would be the time to look at closing the deficit. Not yet, it is too premature today.

I think what you meant to say was that the difference between 2020 and 2007 is that they can't blame it on the Labour Party.
Cyclically adjusted borrowing in 2006 was 3.0% of GDP. In 2019 was 2.5% of GDP. That 0.5% difference is a very small number on which to claim that the entire fiscal outlook is different, especially as debt was 33% of GDP in 2006 and 87% of GDP in 2019. I have tried to educate you on this subject before...

Because your claim is bullshit. 2019/20 was after the recession hit.

It was 1.2% in 2018/19 and that was down on what it was the year before and had come down every year for a decade. In 2016/17 it was significantly higher and needlessly so since it had been a surplus just a few years earlier but that surplus had been frittered into a deficit during years of growth.

Debt to GDP isn't the relevant factor. The deficit is the relevant factor. Debt to GDP will go up if there is too big of a deficit, it will go down if there is a small enough deficit or a surplus. Look after the deficit and the debt will look after itself.

The last week of March (which is when the Covid hit to the economy started) had barely any impact on the deficit. Borrowing in March 2020 was up by less than £8bn on the previous March so the number was heading for 2.2% of GDP absent Covid. The equivalent number for FY2018 was 1.9%, 2.6% in FY2017 and 2.5% in FY2017. None of these numbers differ enough from 3% to justify your claim that the fiscal landscape is utterly different from 2006.
Debt is highly relevant to decisions about whether to run a deficit, because the level of debt is what determines how the market views your solvency. A country running a 15% of GDP deficit with a debt ratio below 40% of GDP is a different proposition to a country running the same deficit but with debt at 90% of GDP. I am surprised to hear you claiming otherwise.

Nigelb said:

Tegnell talks realistically.

Top epidemiologist says Sweden has no signs of herd immunity curbing coronavirus
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/527478-top-epidemiologist-says-sweden-has-no-signs-of-herd-immunity-curbing-coronavirus
Sweden's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country.

“The issue of herd immunity is difficult,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, said at a news briefing, according to Bloomberg News.

“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now," Tegnell said...

...“I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behavior enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”

Bloomberg noted that Swedes have faced more exposure to the coronavirus than residents in other Nordic areas and data published this week showed that every third person tested in Stockholm has tested positive for antibodies.

Positives or negatives to their approach I hope people actually listen to him when he says the bits in bold.

kle4 said:

My flu jab is arranged by my employer, I assume many will get this vaccine the same way? The refuseniks is the problem.

Your flu jab is presumably provided privately and your employer purchases in bulk to get a discounted rate (albeit still more expensive than just getting it at a supermarket).

I presume there will be no legitimate private market for covid vaccines in the UK in late 2020/early 2021 so bringing employers into it seems like adding red tape unless its selecting specific employers based on risk of transmission and high number of contacts their staff have (transport workers, teachers, supermarket staff etc).

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

My flu jab is arranged by my employer, I assume many will get this vaccine the same way? The refuseniks is the problem.

Your flu jab is presumably provided privately and your employer purchases in bulk to get a discounted rate (albeit still more expensive than just getting it at a supermarket).

I presume there will be no legitimate private market for covid vaccines in the UK in late 2020/early 2021 so bringing employers into it seems like adding red tape unless its selecting specific employers based on risk of transmission and high number of contacts their staff have (transport workers, teachers, supermarket staff etc).

Yes, I presume that's how it worked, I just wondered if, though that is private, the process could be coopted by government to reach the younger, working age population rather than those not used to going elsewhere for jabs. But I see the risk of red tape.

stodge said:

CarlottaVance said:

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

Indeed, it's often forgotten how precarious the Conservative position was in 1981. The riots in the summer, the near rebellion of men like Prior and Gilmour and the evolution of the SDP all looked huge threats.

I was a Liberal Party member in London and I vividly remember canvassing in a staunch Conservative area one freezing cold evening in early March 1982 as early preparation for the local elections due that May. I went down one street which had been marked up as 75% Conservative on a previous canvass but in many houses I found contempt for Thatcher, disillusionment with the Conservatives and strong interest in the new SDP.

I later checked the return - the 75% was now 40% solid Conservative and I estimated SDP support around 25% with a lot of Don't Knows.

I have two views on this - first, had the Falklands War not happened and a number of senior Conservatives gone over to the SDP in early and mid 1982, the Conservatives would have lost the election. Second, the Falklands War didn't just save the Conservatives but it also saved Labour. It ensured Labour remained the only credible alternative Government which would not have been the case had the Alliance achieved a significant breakthrough in seats in a 1983 or 1984 election.

The counter argument is the economic recovery instigated by the Conservatives after the first three Howe Budgets would have ensured re-election in 1984 even if there had been no Falklands conflict.

My recollection, too. I think the comment about Labour is correct, too.

malcolmg said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Foremain, there were several voluntary taxes (donate what you like, I think) in the latter half of the 17th century. They actually raised significant sums of money.

Unfortunately MD it is not the 17th century.

What about the National Lottery? I suggest quite a few 'desirables' have been funded through that.

On general topic, it can be a fine between criticising the government response to Covid-19 having detrimental impacts, and at least appearing to criticise government for there being detrimental impacts from Covid-19 in general. That's not the case with cyclefree, but some commentators can fall into that trap.

A billion!

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

My flu jab is arranged by my employer, I assume many will get this vaccine the same way? The refuseniks is the problem.

Your flu jab is presumably provided privately and your employer purchases in bulk to get a discounted rate (albeit still more expensive than just getting it at a supermarket).

I presume there will be no legitimate private market for covid vaccines in the UK in late 2020/early 2021 so bringing employers into it seems like adding red tape unless its selecting specific employers based on risk of transmission and high number of contacts their staff have (transport workers, teachers, supermarket staff etc).

Yes, I presume that's how it worked, I just wondered if, though that is private, the process could be coopted by government to reach the younger, working age population rather than those not used to going elsewhere for jabs. But I see the risk of red tape.

Doing it through large, single site, employers is a useful way forward. I was involved in several campaigns to vaccinate school children, and it was the 'strays' which were the problem. Can't, TBH, recall how we dealt with the home-educated, although I don't think there were a lot in South West Essex.

Benpointer said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

Better safe than sorry

Good post @Big_G_NorthWales - I agree with all these points but would add one additional item (which I suspect you would support):

Time to end the triple lock for pensions.

I'll be taking my pension before that happens.

Edit: Just kidding, I expect to die at my desk.

Barnesian said:

A billion!

Has Trump found some new votes down the back of the sofa? SeanT identities? Chris Grayling errors?

stodge said:

eristdoof said:

stodge said:

Morning all

It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.

My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.

Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.

As part of the seismic changes the EEC had just 7 weeks before gained 16M people overnight with only three member states (Germany, France and the UK) having agreed to it.

The other curious point to this story was that John Major was not really on the radar as next PM at this stage. He was already Chancellor, but was not widely known except ba those who followed politics. It was only once he appeared to be the "better than Hurd and not a Hestletine" candidate, when he became favourite to be the new PM.

What got John Major over the line were the polls the weekend after Thatcher's departure showing he would do as well against Kinnock's Labour as Heseltine if not better.

There's a key point for the future - the Conservative Party (and it's not alone in this) will only remove a leader when it's clear the leader itself is the problem and the problem would be solved by another leader.

With Thatcher, Labour led by ten points, with Heseltine, the parties were level. Conservative backbenchers with small majorities faced electoral oblivion with Thatcher but a chance for salvation with Heseltine. That encouraged Heseltine to stand.

Last year, once it became clear only Johnson, of all the leadership challengers, could deliver a majority for the Conservatives, the leadership election, as a contest, was over and once Prime Minister, the General Election was also over as a contest. The only way a non-Conservative Government could have been elected would have been for the Conservative-Leave vote to have been split with a sizeable chunk going to Farage. A divided Leave vote and a divided Remain vote would have produced a Commons with no overall majority (again).

And therefore, the great clearouts of 2016 (when people like Osbourne decided they'd had enough) and 2019 (Johnson's purges and more people deciding they'd had enough) were really significant.

There's Johnson.
There's Sunak, but he's nowt but a lad.
Then you're into the "you're joking, right?" candidates. Gove? Patel? Raab?
Or Hunt, but the party simply won't buy him.

The unfortunate paradox is that, the weaker Johnson's cabinet, the stronger his personal position. And the instinct for those sort of dynamics is one of Johnson's talents.

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

stodge said:

Morning all

It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.

My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.

Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

I way staying in a cheap backpackers in Borneo when I heard the news that Thatcher was going. In those pre Internet days, there was little news to follow there. The owner came into the hostel lounge with a shocked face and announced the news to a dozen or so of us assorted travellers, from Britain, Australia, Germany, Netherlands and France. The owner was even more shocked as the guests rose in a spontaneous cheer!

I was at secondary school in Scotland when news of her exit broke. To say that it was well-received would be an understatement. It felt like a baleful presence had been removed from our lives. Of course we had six or seven more years of Tory rule, but it didn't weigh so heavily with Major in charge.

My brother got the front page of a newspaper that day and framed it. It still hangs, all these years later, on his living room wall.

Aww that's sweet, I miss her too.

Like piles

99.5% of PPE purchased has been usable.

Interesting statistic. Really is remarkable that only half a percent under the circumstances have been bad batches, you'd think it was all of it the way some people have been whinging.

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1331570678361952262

It'll lead to some bad press, no doubt, but it's an easy target even with the manifesto committment (and subsequent - why proceed with these other manifesto commitments you say still need to happen? - comments) and if that's the worst that comes from the announcements they'd take that, I bet.

MattW said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

Better safe than sorry

Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.

Agree - good post.

On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.

Make next years foreign aid budget free Oxford vaccine to any country in the world who wants it. It would be a small reduction in the % cost, improve the effectiveness of the aid, improve UK reputation worldwide and also give the department a year to work out a plan to spend the budget more effectively for the next decade.

TOPPING said:

Boris sounding very laid back.

Perhaps he's had a dry sherry or two to put himself in the mood.

"Is the Prime Minister feeling tired and emotional today?"

"Nah, mate, I'm wasted!"

Would spice up PMQs. People seem to like Junker being pissed after all.

NerysHughes said:

malcolmg said:

MattW said:

BTW.

A small piece of good news.

Just had a telephone meeting with the Cancer Nurse, and the latest set of blood tests are all but one back in the normal range. Not bad for 3 months after treatment, and one nightmare over for now.

Which means I am basically clear of current consequences of this Hairy Cell Leukemia subject to the usual prognosis of a recurrence in a decade or two.

Anecdata: I was separately in hospital for the blood test clinic on Monday, and the car parks were the fullest I have ever seen them. Had to park a longish walk away, despite there being visitor / companion restrictions in place. At least here (Sherwood Forest Hospitals) a full outpatient programme is up and running.

My wife just had letter with 3rd cancellation of telephone appointment that replaced original consultant appointment , now planned for late February. Hard to believe they cannot do a 5 minute telephone call in almost 6 months.

There are many examples of excellent help and care currently being provided by the NHS for non covid cases and unfortunately there are numerous examples of horrendous treatment of non-covid patients. A local surgery near me does everything possible to not see anyone, door still locked,negative Covid test required before anyone will be seen, another surgery 2 miles away operating normally, door open, normal appointments process. I wonder why they are allowed to operate so differently.

People. Some people, when challenged by a change in conditions, adapt. Others just... stop... in a confused muddle.

The school my youngest daughter was going to (now in secondary) was a case in point. The lady who runs the administrative side of things there was working at full tilt - within hours of government guidance changing, she was emailing out initial plans for dealing with issues - separate entrances, drop off procedures, masks, plans of the school with areas marked on them etc etc. It wasn't all perfect or successful, but the attempt was pretty impressive.

A school, literally round the corner, similar funding levels, demography etc, just collapsed into wibble. The head administrator there was all about staff room politics*, apparently, But he just couldn't do anything that hadn't been done before. And probably been done for him, by a predecessor.

*No, not unionism, but the nonsense about creating opposing factions within the staff.

Stark_Dawning said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/Steven_Swinford/status/1331570678361952262

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Boris didn't U-turn over this - it would fit perfectly with the new One Nation, internationalist, Bidenesque image he's cultivating. Moreover the cut was mainly driven by Rees-Mogg and the Daily Express - both discredited instruments of the Trump era.

He can do the usual PM thing of getting people to blame the Chancellor, as though it wouldn't have been agreed with him first. Cut Rishi down to size.

noneoftheabove said:

MattW said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

Better safe than sorry

Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.

Agree - good post.

On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.

Make next years foreign aid budget free Oxford vaccine to any country in the world who wants it. It would be a small reduction in the % cost, improve the effectiveness of the aid, improve UK reputation worldwide and also give the department a year to work out a plan to spend the budget more effectively for the next decade.

But that would be offensive to countries that want to take the aid *and* hate on us.

Next you will be saying that having "UK" stamped on the containers for aid is acceptable.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

stodge said:

Morning all

It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.

My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.

Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

I way staying in a cheap backpackers in Borneo when I heard the news that Thatcher was going. In those pre Internet days, there was little news to follow there. The owner came into the hostel lounge with a shocked face and announced the news to a dozen or so of us assorted travellers, from Britain, Australia, Germany, Netherlands and France. The owner was even more shocked as the guests rose in a spontaneous cheer!

I was at secondary school in Scotland when news of her exit broke. To say that it was well-received would be an understatement. It felt like a baleful presence had been removed from our lives. Of course we had six or seven more years of Tory rule, but it didn't weigh so heavily with Major in charge.

My brother got the front page of a newspaper that day and framed it. It still hangs, all these years later, on his living room wall.

Aww that's sweet, I miss her too.

Your picture is wipe clean presumably.

Finger smudges from picking it up and admiring it often, no doubt. Nothing more.

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

stodge said:

Morning all

It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.

My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.

Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

I way staying in a cheap backpackers in Borneo when I heard the news that Thatcher was going. In those pre Internet days, there was little news to follow there. The owner came into the hostel lounge with a shocked face and announced the news to a dozen or so of us assorted travellers, from Britain, Australia, Germany, Netherlands and France. The owner was even more shocked as the guests rose in a spontaneous cheer!

I was at secondary school in Scotland when news of her exit broke. To say that it was well-received would be an understatement. It felt like a baleful presence had been removed from our lives. Of course we had six or seven more years of Tory rule, but it didn't weigh so heavily with Major in charge.

My brother got the front page of a newspaper that day and framed it. It still hangs, all these years later, on his living room wall.

Aww that's sweet, I miss her too.

Your picture is wipe clean presumably.

You just had to go and ruin it, Olby.

noneoftheabove said:

MattW said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

Better safe than sorry

Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.

Agree - good post.

On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.

Make next years foreign aid budget free Oxford vaccine to any country in the world who wants it. It would be a small reduction in the % cost, improve the effectiveness of the aid, improve UK reputation worldwide and also give the department a year to work out a plan to spend the budget more effectively for the next decade.

It is indeed a great opportunity for soft displays of power at the same time as knocking this bloody thing on the head. It looks like the three most likely candidates to end up in the third world are the Oxford, Russian and Chinese efforts, so it would be great if the U.K. effort can be distributed free to poorer countries.

CarlottaVance said:

Roger said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/BorisJohnson/status/1331537117084856320?s=20

If only he had something more important to do

And if he hadn't replied you'd have been first in line to lambast him as a heartless uncaring Tory toff.....

You think that was a reply to a real letter?

You were in marketing!

Nigelb said:

Tegnell talks realistically.

Top epidemiologist says Sweden has no signs of herd immunity curbing coronavirus
https://thehill.com/policy/international/europe/527478-top-epidemiologist-says-sweden-has-no-signs-of-herd-immunity-curbing-coronavirus
Sweden's top infectious disease expert said Tuesday that the country has not seen evidence of herd immunity slowing the spread of the coronavirus in the country.

“The issue of herd immunity is difficult,” Anders Tegnell, Sweden's state epidemiologist, said at a news briefing, according to Bloomberg News.

“We see no signs of immunity in the population that are slowing down the infection right now," Tegnell said...

...“I want to make it clear, no, we did not lock down like many other countries, but we definitely had a virtual lockdown,” Tegnell said. “Swedes changed their behavior enormously. We stopped travelling even more than our neighboring countries. The airports had no flights anywhere, the trains were running at a few per cent of normal service, so there were enormous changes in society.”

Bloomberg noted that Swedes have faced more exposure to the coronavirus than residents in other Nordic areas and data published this week showed that every third person tested in Stockholm has tested positive for antibodies.

Meanwhile, recent lockdown in London seems to have made no difference.

https://twitter.com/timspector/status/1331556653716697089

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

Malmesbury said:

noneoftheabove said:

MattW said:

kinabalu said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

Good morning

I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector

With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery

On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations

On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year

On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market

On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.

Better safe than sorry

Good post. Re freezing the wages of public sector workers, the government must gain the moral authority to do things like this by also enacting measures which extract a significant contribution to the cost of the pandemic from the relatively affluent. There are many such people in this country and many ways to do it. If the government flunk this aspect it will be a case of "same old Tories" and I predict big trouble. They got away with it last time - making the poor bear much of the pain for the collapse of the financial sector - but I don't think the trick can be repeated. Perhaps Johnson & Co realize this themselves. I hope they do. If so there will be a serious attempt to make "those with the largest shoulders bear the load" in reality rather than as platitudinous soundbite.

Agree - good post.

On foreign aid I am not sure that a reduction to say 0.5% would do that much harm.

There was an interesting session on "Wealth Taxin the light of COVID" in Parliament the other day. One aspect was an attempt to brand IHT and CGT as 'wealth taxes'.

Another was a suggestion that the amount to be raised could be £250-500bn over several years, which is a little loopy - ask Mgr Hollande.

But enough unanimity that reform of things like Stamp Duty to a more continuous setup may be imaginable.

Make next years foreign aid budget free Oxford vaccine to any country in the world who wants it. It would be a small reduction in the % cost, improve the effectiveness of the aid, improve UK reputation worldwide and also give the department a year to work out a plan to spend the budget more effectively for the next decade.

But that would be offensive to countries that want to take the aid *and* hate on us.

Next you will be saying that having "UK" stamped on the containers for aid is acceptable.

It would be an unconditional offer, available for everyone from North Korea to the USA. If anyone takes offense they can just say no. Or they can take it and carry on hating if thats what they want to.

You don't understand - offering the Oxford vaccine would be an insult to the people shouting "Death to the "

Their feelings are important. or something.

I do understand, I just think the constant culture war trolling is a bit pathetic and not very funny.

BluestBlue said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

BluestBlue said:

kinabalu said:

OnlyLivingBoy said:

Foxy said:

CarlottaVance said:

stodge said:

Morning all

It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.

My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.

Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.

I remember my instant reaction when someone popped into a meeting with "Thatcher's gone" - "the barstewards have finally done for her".

Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.

I way staying in a cheap backpackers in Borneo when I heard the news that Thatcher was going. In those pre Internet days, there was little news to follow there. The owner came into the hostel lounge with a shocked face and announced the news to a dozen or so of us assorted travellers, from Britain, Australia, Germany, Netherlands and France. The owner was even more shocked as the guests rose in a spontaneous cheer!

I was at secondary school in Scotland when news of her exit broke. To say that it was well-received would be an understatement. It felt like a baleful presence had been removed from our lives. Of course we had six or seven more years of Tory rule, but it didn't weigh so heavily with Major in charge.

My brother got the front page of a newspaper that day and framed it. It still hangs, all these years later, on his living room wall.

Aww that's sweet, I miss her too.

Your picture is wipe clean presumably.

You just had to go and ruin it, Olby.

Sorry Betty. Mind in the sewer as always.