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In The Bleak Midwinter – politicalbetting.com
In The Bleak Midwinter – politicalbetting.com
Final speech prep ahead of tomorrow’s Spending Review. Watch live straight after PMQs #SR20 pic.twitter.com/IqZYnCrkeE
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Your great, great-grandchildren will think kindly of you as they tell their grandchildren that a distant ancestor has left them a small legacy that their grandchildren will reflect upon as a piece of social history.
My winnings from Betfreeeee.
I think history will reveal Sunak`s packages to be very poorly targeted - astonishingly generous to some whereas others have been left with nothing. I know people at both ends.
Brexit especially a No Deal one is man made - through stupidity and pig headed ness.
Still baffles me that pro-EU types didn't try and slide in such in return for backing May's deal.
If businesses can survive until the Spring then I suspect next Spring and Summer will be the best seen for years, there will be a lot of pent up demand, but that won't be much use for any businesses that collapse between now and then.
As Cyclefree says there is no need for an indefinite lifeline. We have a vaccine coming, but until it is deployed there will need to be a solution.
It might be an idea to start considering concessionary loans rather than grants?
But difficult decisions also stem from failing to make the right decision earlier.
A circuit breaker back in September, better isolation incentives, a test and trace system run by or at least engaging local authorities, deployment of rapid mass testing... all arguably missed opportunities to avoid having to use the big hammer of national lockdown.
A Remain vs May's deal referendum would have been the worst of all world's. I was genuinely worried that might be the outcome at one point, I can't believe our luck that they were too hubristic to go for that.
Biden 1.03
Democrats 1.03
Biden PV 1.02
Biden PV 49-51.9% 1.02
Trump PV 46-48.9% 1.03
Trump ECV 210-239 1.05
Biden ECV 300-329 1.04
Biden ECV Hcap -48.5 1.02
Biden ECV Hcap -63.5 1.04
Trump ECV Hcap +81.5 1.02
AZ Dem 1.03
GA Dem 1.04
MI Dem 1.03
NV Dem 1.03
PA Dem 1.03
WI Dem 1.03
Trump to leave before end of term NO 1.08
Trump exit date 2021 1.07
I've always thought he's the most overrated politician since Tony Blair. His only reflex is to fling lots of borrowed money at every problem, and not even particularly competently at that. In the next six months we'll see if I was right or not.
But never even making the attempt was foolish.
In such a referendum, I think it likely Remain would've won.
i suspect today it will be a case of dealing with the pandemic spending but "don't rock the boat" for everything else. Freeze it where possible as is, no cuts or increases just kick it for 12 months.
FL 29 T
GA 16 B
NV 6 B
ME-2 1 T
MI 16 B
MN 10 B
NH 4 B
NC 15 T
PA 20 B
TX 38 T
AL 9 T
DL 3 T
KY 8 T
LA 8 T
ME 2 B
ME-1 1 B
MA 11 B
NM 5 B
ND 3 T
OK 7 T
SC 9 T
SD 3 T
UT 6 T
VT 3 B
VA 13 B
WY 3 T
--
142 Trump
107 Biden
This imo is where the student loans model of loans with income-contingent repayments might be useful. HMG supports the business to keep it alive, and if said business prospers after the crisis, it pays the money back, but if it folds or limps along then the loan is written off. This would encourage owners to maintain their businesses and perhaps even invest more.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1331292456302891008?s=20
Serious tax cuts would be better.
I think the American approach of supporting people not zombie businesses will produce a much more dynamic recovery in the medium term.
But, again, we'll see.
If Priti didn't have tantrums maybe they'd be brave enough to go to the Home Office. It's not like they've got a lot to do. Here's the PM sending Christmas cards to school children.
Thankfully, every single one of them is now a former MP.
We have a deficit not because we are structurally overspending as we were in 2007 even before the GFC hit, but because there is a pandemic and the economy is depressed.
We couldn't "grow our way out of the deficit" in 2010 as the economy was growing and the deficit was structural. That's not the case today.
Today the deficit is entirely due to the pandemic, it is temporal not structural. Tax cuts would allow more spending and investment and allow the economy to grow which will close the deficit. Tax rises will kick the economy while its down and strangle any chance of growth.
If in 2-3 years we see that we do actually have a structural deficit after some sustained growth then that would be the time to look at closing the deficit. Not yet, it is too premature today.
If you think 2020 has been a bit tricky for the UK, 2021 is going to be an economic and political hurricane.
This time next week we will know how badly Brexit is going to hurt. Its going to be bad either way. No deal will lead to an immediate emergency, the crap deal is just going to spin out the same agony, but avoid total meltdown.
Biden will ensure that the greatest disaster since Suez will be paid for in full measure, and the Scottish Parliamentary elections will be incredibly tricky.
So while Sunak preens, and Johnson squirms, the shit will be hitting the fan from multiple angles.
This time next year you will be living in a different country... I already moved.
The problem was that the anti-Brexit politicians... well..
1) First rule of AntiBrexit Club is that you deny there is an AnitBrexit Club
2) It's all about process.
3) You obstruct Brexit as much as you can
4) In the hope that a legal case will stop it
5) Or world war
6) Or the Grinch will steal it
7) Or something
8) But actually voting in a way that makes it clear you are AntiBrexit. Oh no!
Strangely, a lot of people got the idea that they were
a) AntiBrexit
b) Obstructive without purpose.
*It seemed that way
The country was tricked into the second lockdown by the second dodgy dossier in 20 years. That is what happens when you don't have independent scrutiny and public consultation, but instead make huge decisions on the basis of a couple of scary graphs.
If this pandemic has shown anything, it's the value of public scrutiny of the government.
The tax book is now so big that people can’t understand it, making things much simpler with fewer loopholes allows tax rates to drop for the same revenue, and makes everyone happy except for lawyers and accountants.
So they hid behind procedure.
That worked out really well.
You're right that the absence of grants this time is key. I'm an unpaid director of a small leisure businesses - golf course plus clubhouse bar/catering. Back in the Spring, we got a £25k targeted grant and almost as much in a business rate refund, plus a £50k loan which sorted out cash flow. This time, having been closed until July, the bar/catering was once more crippled in Tier 2 from mid October and in lockdown since 5th November with no realistic prospect of reopening until well into next year. We've got just £2k definitely, the standard amount. We might another £1k or so at the local authority's discretion for the Tier 2 effects on hospitality. And that's it.
Comparing the support in the Spring with that recently, the difference in that level of grant support is stark and manifest and why a lot of already wounded hospitality businesses won't survive the winter. My business will get through this but only because the core golfing business had recovered well over the Summer and generated enough revenue to compensate for the collapse of the hospitality side, although the ludicrous course closure of the current 4 weeks set us back a lot. But I can see first hand how a business which derived all its revenue from hospitality would be going under by now, with no more support than we qualified for and with no light at the end of a long tunnel stretching well into 2021.
1. That PM Johnson doesn't know what he's talking about
2. That Rishi is going to hand out a Christmas bonus to those on Universal Credit
Which foreign climes have you condescended to bless with your sunny disposition?
I have sympathy with Cyclefree and her piece but the nature of this pandemic has been to devastate the hospitality and travel industry and, while help has been given, it was always going to have constraints with the huge demands from other sectors, not least the health and care sector
With the vaccine on the horizon let us all hope that by mid 2021 these industries will see a sharp uptake in demand and begin their road to recovery
On foreign aid I have no issue with reducing it, but as has been suggested some of the savings should be folded into the vaccine programmes to directly help third world countries with their own vaccinations
On public sector pay freeze I support it purely on the grounds of fairness and expect mp's to lead by example. Additionally I would support abolishing the triple lock thereby freezing our own pension rise next year
On Brexit a deal is really needed, indeed as far as I am concerned any deal, but our relationship with Europe will develop over many years and may eventually lead to 'de facto' membership and at the very least membership of the single market
On Christmas I fail to understand why people just cannot see the safest thing is to treat this Christmas as if we are in lockdown and curtail family gatherings in the greater interest of all of us. No matter the four nations agreeing a convoluted number of rules for this year, my wife and I have already cancelled Christmas day for the 10 of us and will spend it on our own at our on home.
Better safe than sorry
The public saw through them and judged them accordingly.
It is getting through the winter that has to happen first though.
Starmer is his opposition in his front.
Johnson absolutely will still be concerned about what is happening behind his back.
It's probably been well picked over but I'm reminded it's 30 years since Margaret Thatcher was ousted by Conservative MPs after eleven and a half years in office and three GE wins.
My recollection of the period was it was perhaps the most extraordinary in British politics - from the dismissal of Sir Geoffrey Howe which set in motion the chain of events leading to Thatcher's own demise it was completely addictive and yet not quite in the days of the 24/7 news cycle. The 60 hours from the declaration of the result of the first ballot to Thatcher telling her Cabinet she was going have been extensively covered in literature but still seem remarkable.
Meanwhile, the backdrop was the likelihood of military action in the Gulf following Saddam's invasion of Kuwait and the seismic changes in Russia and Eastern Europe following the events of the previous year.
I really do want a deal and at this late stage it can only be the start of years of negotiations.
I do expect by 2024 Starmer will be advocating joining the customs union and single market and I expect that will be a popular position if we have not already done it
I have two young nephews who just replied to me that they’re so happy Santa will still be coming to visit a month from now, despite everything else that’s happened this year.
Cyclically adjusted borrowing in 2006 was 3.0% of GDP. In 2019 was 2.5% of GDP. That 0.5% difference is a very small number on which to claim that the entire fiscal outlook is different, especially as debt was 33% of GDP in 2006 and 87% of GDP in 2019. I have tried to educate you on this subject before...
My daughter lost her first tooth earlier this year, she wasn't concerned that the Tooth Fairy would be able to visit as she informed us that the Tooth Fairy would be wearing a mask and gloves. After a little bit of crafting by my wife, our daughter woke up the next morning to find a pound coin and a fairy-sized facemask with glitter on it that the Tooth Fairy must have dropped while visiting.
Tuesday next week we're due to have two little Elves come live on our shelves for 24 days. I'm going to hazard a guess they might bring some form of PPE with them on the 1st December too.
I've suggested the Government puts up a couple of additional public holidays next year to encourage us even further to go out and spend (it's not about enjoyment really, it's about spending money in and around the hospitality sector).
There will be, at least for a while, a big feel-good surge. I'm looking forward to going racing and I'm sure the likes of Plumpton and Lingfield are looking forward to me forking over £20 to watch an afternoon of tenth-rate jumping. Ah, the cost of everything but the value of nothing mentality at work,
Longer term, what will be the changes that Covid brings? Working from Home is here to stay - of that I've no doubt. Given a choice between getting up in the cold and dark, trudging to the station, bus stop or tube station or having an extra hour in bed and a leisurely breakfast in the warmth, I know what I'll go for every time but apparently a freezing cold, costly and stressful journey to and from work is more than offset by the social time I spend with my equally grumpy colleagues because it's all about "mental health" (apparently).
I'd also like to think for all those desperate to return to a pre-Covid life and forget 2020 ever happened, there are also many for whom the experience has allowed the opportunity to re-evaluate themselves and their priorities in life.
If its backed up by news of an extension of the uplift in universal credit, or a xmas bonus, great, otherwise its promising things to kids with other peoples money.
That's not a particular criticism of Johnson, by the way. I think his predecessors of both parties would have done the same. It just leaves a bad taste for me, that's all.
Those who did not live through the whole premiership seem to view Thatcher only through the prism of Falklands/Miners Strike/Poll Tax - ignorant of her precarious early years "it was only a matter of time before a man someone more sensible/less divisive/not as shrill (delete as appropriate) replaced her" was the received wisdom.
It was 1.2% in 2018/19 and that was down on what it was the year before and had come down every year for a decade. In 2016/17 it was significantly higher and needlessly so since it had been a surplus just a few years earlier but that surplus had been frittered into a deficit during years of growth.
Debt to GDP isn't the relevant factor. The deficit is the relevant factor. Debt to GDP will go up if there is too big of a deficit, it will go down if there is a small enough deficit or a surplus. Look after the deficit and the debt will look after itself.
The first tranche can plan for Burns Night instead, or Valentines Day for the less whisky inclined.
That sort of approach is very "British Govt" and has been for years, decades and possibly centuries. They always spend just enough to get something going, but never enough to sustain it or do it well.
This suggests that those who can afford to pay *may* be more likely to want higher taxes.
Every Christmas, they cut the power to the first "S"
It makes small children happy....
If it safe for 3 families to get drunk for Christmas at home then it is safe for them to get drunk together in the pub. Which as you point out is likely a lot cleaner and more controlled an environment. Yet for most of the country going to the pub as 3 families will be illegal. The hypocrisy in the regulations has been there from the start and sadly they aren't learning any lessons.
Is 3 families so that he can have the technology consultant and the musician round over Christmas...?
The second example was my nephew who hasn't been tested despite having 5 of 8 flatmates being positive for the virus because he has no symptoms. When are we ever going to come to grips with asymptomatic transmission? He has to self isolate but my daughter's partner doesn't. This is irrational.
A third and broader example is in @Cyclefree's thread header. Instead of using highly regulated, properly equipped hospitality venues we are allowing people to get together in house parties of up to 6 with no masks, no social distancing, nothing. This is irrational.
We also have a situation in Scotland where the entire country is at least 1 and typically 2 bands higher than it should be going on the published infection rates in the community. The economic consequences of this are horrendous but barely discussed. If the original banding is thought to be too high change it. But for goodness sake don't give explanations which MAKE NO SENSE AT ALL ON THE KNOWN FACTS.
We have simply not got to grip with what works and what doesn't. That is why we let people go abroad on holiday this year. That is why we can't make up our mind whether to allow people into their offices or not but think its ok for them to be on building sites.
I am not saying that this is easy or that people have been stupid (much). I am conscious that it is very easy sitting on a laptop to skip over inconvenient facts and uncertainties. But I want our governments to get a grip. That means that Christmas lunch is safer in a restaurant than in a house. It means that we need to test all those who have suffered serious exposure whether they have symptoms or not. And it means we don't stop businesses that can operate safely from carrying on their trade.
I suppose the logical conclusion is we'd have no problems at all if we didn't pay any taxes.
However, to a large number of people in the country, not having the big family gathering etc *is* a *personal* crisis.
I've mentioned previously a friend, who despite being in a risk group, broke lockdown all the way through. His life is defined by "having people round", "a good party". *Not* socialising en-mass, is for him, a torment.
This is a matter of national security and the military have been quite rightly drafted in to deal with the logistics. We are in a war against COVID right now, we are running a wartime budget deficit and as a matter of national security the military must do whatever it takes to ensure the logistics of vaccine rollout are implemented in full.
I have every reason to be confident they will succeed.
My suspicion is that Valentine's Day is the day to be optimistic for life to begin to phase back to normal. Valentine's Day fortunately is a key celebration for couples who will not need to be socially distanced from each other. So if every region can be in Tier 2 or below by that point then restaurants should be able to sell out every single table they can squeeze in to a couple.
By Mothers Day I'm reasonably optimistic that most of the country will be in Tier 1 or below.
By June I think the Tiers will be behind us and the pandemic will be essentially over.