Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. Sign in or register to get started.

Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited November 2020 in General
Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday – politicalbetting.com

As Maine goes, so goes the nation?

Read the full story here

«134

Comments

  • Best thread in the history of PB.

    FACT.


    Only being first so people can comment on this thread.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 9,770
    Second preference
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    This is no AV thread! Can I have my money back?
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    Blimey TSE, what have we done to upset you that you save an AV thread as the Maine event?
  • ydoethur said:

    Blimey TSE, what have we done to upset you that you save an AV thread as the Maine event?

    This is a thread of joy.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 90,484
    Johnson got 5% last time and Stein got 1% so where the Libertarian and Green votes go will be interesting
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    ydoethur said:

    Blimey TSE, what have we done to upset you that you save an AV thread as the Maine event?

    This is a thread of joy.
    Well, at least it was from a state with sensible food choices.

    Imagine how conflicted you would have been had Hawaii adopted it...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    I wonder for how long this new voting system will delay the result in Maine.
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    FPT

    @glw

    Dido Harding was (in my view) simply appointed as a back-hander. Here's some free cash, and you don't need to do anything. I think it's reasonably clear that her career is based on this.

    Good for her, but shit for us when she's required to actually do something.
  • HYUFD said:
    Doesn't look good for Trump considering 90 million have already voted and only 138 million voted last time.

    He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.
  • pingping Posts: 1,415
    edited November 2020
    Fpt

    Thanks @stocky for the trump nv tip

    6 Seems like a decent enough price

    That’s my only pro trump bet. I’m on the look out for a few more trump hedges to somewhat offset my main biden4potus position

    Any other tips anyone?
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 15,478
    edited November 2020
    I don't think we should listen to any State whose favourite food is ridiculously outsized sea insects.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    HYUFD said:
    Doesn't look good for Trump considering 90 million have already voted and only 138 million voted last time.

    He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.
    Yeah if that poll is accurate Biden already has close to 60m votes. For context Trump only got 62m in total last time.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205

    HYUFD said:
    Doesn't look good for Trump considering 90 million have already voted and only 138 million voted last time.

    He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.
    Assuming the 90 million who have voted so far all voted last time, rather than a high proportion being Dems who couldn’t endure Clinton.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775
    Omnium said:

    FPT

    @glw

    Dido Harding was (in my view) simply appointed as a back-hander. Here's some free cash, and you don't need to do anything. I think it's reasonably clear that her career is based on this.

    Good for her, but shit for us when she's required to actually do something.

    By all means blame her for things she is responsible for, but I don't think the app is one of them. Besides that getting hung up on problems with the app misses the bigger point that such apps are not proving to be useful, never mind the silver bullet that the tech industry made it sound like they would be.
  • ydoethur said:

    HYUFD said:
    Doesn't look good for Trump considering 90 million have already voted and only 138 million voted last time.

    He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.
    Assuming the 90 million who have voted so far all voted last time, rather than a high proportion being Dems who couldn’t endure Clinton.
    Yes it could be even worse for Trump.

    The only way I can possibly see him winning is either if people have been lying about their support of Trump to pollsters or they just get asked less often.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753

    HYUFD said:
    Doesn't look good for Trump considering 90 million have already voted and only 138 million voted last time.

    He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.
    Yeah if that poll is accurate Biden already has close to 60m votes. For context Trump only got 62m in total last time.
    I don't see how a poll like that can be accurate. Based on that calculation, this is what they predict in the popular vote:

    https://twitter.com/DanSigner/status/1322944201978306561
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 97,887
    edited November 2020
    Times journo: Matt Hancock told Tory MPs earlier that local Remembrance Sunday services and events are banned under new lockdown and only “short, focused” wreath-laying ceremonies allowed. Reaction to this will be one measure of just how willing backbenches are to get on board.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image
  • OmniumOmnium Posts: 6,490
    glw said:

    Omnium said:

    FPT

    @glw

    Dido Harding was (in my view) simply appointed as a back-hander. Here's some free cash, and you don't need to do anything. I think it's reasonably clear that her career is based on this.

    Good for her, but shit for us when she's required to actually do something.

    By all means blame her for things she is responsible for, but I don't think the app is one of them. Besides that getting hung up on problems with the app misses the bigger point that such apps are not proving to be useful, never mind the silver bullet that the tech industry made it sound like they would be.
    I've not blamed her for anything, I've certainly not mentioned the app.

    So far as I can see she's just not up to the job, and given what her job is then that's not to be ignored. (Happy to be contradicted, or even better proved wrong)
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655
    HYUFD said:
    Had a quick look at the Wisconsin crosstabs, according to them Trump is winning ages 18-44 (they dont split it for some reason) 52-48. Yet in 2016 Trump got 44% of 18-29s and 37% of 30-44s. Together those two groups made 40% of the voters, 17% for the younger, 23% for the higher age and your telling me Trumps now at 52% for both combined? Trumps main reason for winning was the 45-64 group so i'm filing this one in the bin
    https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/wi/
  • I have to say, I don’t know what’s been done but I’m not having any loading issues on my iPhone 12 Pro anymore.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Is it possible that an increasing proportion of our testing is repeat testing of front line staff in the NHS , social care and in education with the result that it is weighted against finding the proportion of new cases that actually exist in society? The fact that the positivity rate is creeping upwards (albeit nothing like what we are seeing on mainland Europe) would suggest that our testing is either getting better or simply finding a smaller proportion of new cases. The assumption of the ONS seems to be the latter.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 55,699

    I have to say, I don’t know what’s been done but I’m not having any loading issues on my iPhone 12 Pro anymore.

    Alright, no need to rub it in.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    Evening all :)

    As we enter the final 72 hours of the US election campaign, a panglossian of polls especially at the State level and some especially panglossian for fans of Trump.

    Starting with the national polling and not a huge amount to be honest over the weekend. The daily IBD/TIPP has Biden's lowest number for a while but still a 5-point lead at 49-44 in a 4-way contest including Jorgensen and Hawkins.

    An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Biden ahead 52-42. Once again, the key number is among White voters Trump leads 51-45. That compares with a 58-37 lead in 2016 and represents a 7.5% swing to the Democrats. This may explain what's happening in the Rust Belt and what may or may not be happening elsewhere.

    The equivalent poll in the 2016 campaign had Clinton ahead 48-43 so Clinton's vote share spot on and Trump's underestimated then.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 7,062
    Just catching up from last thread - thanks for posting @Black_Rook - it`s been a while and we don`t want lose one of our best posters - so please keep posting on here even if just a couple of posts a month.
  • Scott_xP said:
    Basically trying to trigger major civil unrest.
  • RobD said:

    I have to say, I don’t know what’s been done but I’m not having any loading issues on my iPhone 12 Pro anymore.

    Alright, no need to rub it in.
    I was having loading issues on the iPhone 12 Pro just a couple of days ago.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Our contact tracing strategy is rubbish so we're not finding new cases?

    New Excel issue which limits us to reporting 25k cases per day maximum?
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    DavidL said:

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Is it possible that an increasing proportion of our testing is repeat testing of front line staff in the NHS , social care and in education with the result that it is weighted against finding the proportion of new cases that actually exist in society? The fact that the positivity rate is creeping upwards (albeit nothing like what we are seeing on mainland Europe) would suggest that our testing is either getting better or simply finding a smaller proportion of new cases. The assumption of the ONS seems to be the latter.
    Well, the testing capacity is increasing rapidly at the moment. There does not seem to be reports of difficulty in getting a test on demand. There is substantial un-used capacity.
  • Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Good questions. Lag doesn't seem to explain it.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from hospitalisations is that it is moving up the age brackets: older people more likely to have severe disease.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from ONS numbers is that it is moving down the age brackets: younger people (probably) more likely to be asymptomatic and hence less likely to get tested.

    Hmm.

    --AS
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910
    edited November 2020

    Scott_xP said:
    Basically trying to trigger major civil unrest.
    I think if the networks don't call it then he won't be able to do this. And the networks won't call it. Even more so if the exit polls aren't in his favour. For election coverage, even the likes of Fox News focus heavily on their news teams. Which still aren't particularly corruptible.
  • First Briton to catch Covid' dies: Student, 26, who was infected while teaching English in Wuhan is found dead in his room at Bangor University after his mother says he 'never got over hardship of lockdown in China'

    https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902745/First-Briton-catch-Covid-dies.html
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 570
    Scott_xP said:
    Florida , Arizona , Georgia , Ohio , North Carolina will all be counting Mail in ballots first . Michigan is allowed to start processing ballots from bigger towns and cities tomorrow. It’s likely then Biden will be leading in all those states well into the night regardless of what happens later so Trumps plan like himself is delusional.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044

    Best thread in the history of PB.

    FACT.


    Only being first so people can comment on this thread.

    In recognition of your longstanding and sustained commitment to fair voting, I sincerely apologise for trolling you so cruelly with the fake letter on the last thread.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Good questions. Lag doesn't seem to explain it.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from hospitalisations is that it is moving up the age brackets: older people more likely to have severe disease.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from ONS numbers is that it is moving down the age brackets: younger people (probably) more likely to be asymptomatic and hence less likely to get tested.

    Hmm.

    --AS
    image

    It's moving up in all age brackets, apart from 5-9, according to https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923669/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_w40.xlsx
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 38,753
    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Basically trying to trigger major civil unrest.
    I think if the networks don't call it then he won't be able to do this. And the networks won't call it. Even more so if the exit polls aren't in his favour. For election coverage, even the likes of Fox News focus heavily on their news teams. Which still aren't particularly corruptible.
    If he makes a statement, the networks will have to cover it, so it will be difficult to prevent him setting the agenda.
  • Black_RookBlack_Rook Posts: 8,905
    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Evening All

    I'm trying to stay away from here as much as possible at the moment because it all makes me so very, very depressed.

    However, now that I've been proven right in my assumption that we'd end up this Autumn, and probably sooner rather than later, essentially with April plus schools and masks everywhere, I return to make a further prediction.

    The lockdown will continue, effectively, until next Summer.

    There *might* be a very brief hiatus to allow household mixing over Christmas, presumably because the Government thinks that nobody will obey its rules at that time (although they might not bother to obey them anymore regardless,) but other than that we're going to be locked up all the way until the warm weather comes around. It's inevitable. Lockdowns don't work, they just kick the can of the disease down the road. Finish one and, save for during the Summer, the start of the next is only weeks away.

    The mad scientists are now running the show (Parliament and the Government might as well dissolve themselves and save us the cost of their useless presence,) and their dodgy computer models will demand that we are all incarcerated for the duration. Indeed, under the circumstances it is probably for the best that the affected businesses simply roll over and die rather than being allowed to open for a fortnight and then being shut back down again. Trying to pretend that hospitality, tourism, leisure, the arts and non-food retail are viable when they're going to be opening and closing every five minutes until May or June (and that will all start again if the octogenarians haven't been vaccinated by September) is laughable. Keeping all the doomed employees on furlough is simply delaying the inevitable under such circumstances.

    Therefore, by May or June 2021, all of the shuttered sectors of the economy will have been more-or-less eradicated and unemployment will be running, at an educated guess, somewhere in the ballpark of eight million. At best, next year is going to be a more catastrophic version of 1931. At worst, we're talking 1348, or possibly 410. Broad scale societal collapse. Basically we've had our chips.

    Crumbs that's bleak. Much sympathy. This too will pass.
    Trite but true.
    Ha! Bollocks. At best we'll be dealing with the consequences of this for decades (and some of the more lunatic scientists are already suggesting that masks and social distancing will be with us literally forever.) At worst, it's the end of European civilization as currently constituted. A new Dark Age. Hundreds of years before we recover.

    The country simply can't carry the weight of children, the elderly and a very large fraction of the working age population demanding handouts all at once. The economy will implode, and once it implodes, it will take society with it. It is inevitable.
    I’ve not been slow at any point in being apprehensive about the economic consequences of Covid but this is hysterical nonsense. We are facing a fall in GDP of about 10%, slightly worse than 2008 where GDP fell about 8%.
    That hurt and brought in a decade of “austerity” whilst we rebalanced the economy but it did not bring the end of times and neither will this.
    It does we seem will have had the best part of 20 years with no net growth in Europe, something unprecedented since WW 2 and possibly a lot longer. Our default assumptions of growth and increasing wealth will be sorely hit which will no doubt have an impact on confidence.
    But we will survive and so will our society.
    GDP has much, much further to fall. Vast swathes of the economy are being propped up by Government spending on such a gargantuan scale that it cannot possibly continue indefinitely. Either the lending will cease or all that money printing will cause the value of the pound to collapse, so that the trillions being sprayed everywhere will become about as valuable as the Zimbabwean dollar anyway.

    So, how are the old, kiddies and the eight million unemployed to be housed, fed and clothed by our woefully depleted residuum of taxpayers? They won't be.

    Like I said, best case scenario: "Buddy, can you spare a dime?" and the Jarrow Crusade. Worst case scenario: Fall of the Roman Empire.
  • Times journo: Matt Hancock told Tory MPs earlier that local Remembrance Sunday services and events are banned under new lockdown and only “short, focused” wreath-laying ceremonies allowed. Reaction to this will be one measure of just how willing backbenches are to get on board.

    We've already had that confirmed in an email from our local council which was marked Confidential.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    MaxPB said:

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Our contact tracing strategy is rubbish so we're not finding new cases?

    New Excel issue which limits us to reporting 25k cases per day maximum?
    In which case the ONS data and the hospitalisation is the one to go with - and the government tis right to impose increased restrictions.
  • GaussianGaussian Posts: 793
    AV doesn't make a difference to the electoral college distortion unless the electoral college actually is abolished in favour countrywide AV. And that's not going to happen.

    But I can see more blue leaning states using it, thereby allowing people to vote for third party candidates without handing the state to the wrong main party, as happened with Perot and Nader.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 6,910

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Basically trying to trigger major civil unrest.
    I think if the networks don't call it then he won't be able to do this. And the networks won't call it. Even more so if the exit polls aren't in his favour. For election coverage, even the likes of Fox News focus heavily on their news teams. Which still aren't particularly corruptible.
    If he makes a statement, the networks will have to cover it, so it will be difficult to prevent him setting the agenda.
    He can make any statements he likes. If he can't point to any numbers, even dodgy ones to back it up then it won't get anywhere.
  • I have to say, I don’t know what’s been done but I’m not having any loading issues on my iPhone 12 Pro anymore.

    It is a bit cr*p if you have to buy a whole new product just to fix their buggy software...
  • Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Good questions. Lag doesn't seem to explain it.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from hospitalisations is that it is moving up the age brackets: older people more likely to have severe disease.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from ONS numbers is that it is moving down the age brackets: younger people (probably) more likely to be asymptomatic and hence less likely to get tested.

    Hmm.

    --AS
    image

    It's moving up in all age brackets, apart from 5-9, according to https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923669/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_w40.xlsx
    Is that from ONS survey data, or testing data? It would be interesting to compare the relative proportions of infections in older adults in the two sets (though probably very noisy in the case of ONS because of small samples, and biased by not sampling University students -- or those in care homes I believe).

    --AS
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    DavidL said:

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Is it possible that an increasing proportion of our testing is repeat testing of front line staff in the NHS , social care and in education with the result that it is weighted against finding the proportion of new cases that actually exist in society? The fact that the positivity rate is creeping upwards (albeit nothing like what we are seeing on mainland Europe) would suggest that our testing is either getting better or simply finding a smaller proportion of new cases. The assumption of the ONS seems to be the latter.
    Well, the testing capacity is increasing rapidly at the moment. There does not seem to be reports of difficulty in getting a test on demand. There is substantial un-used capacity.
    There's certainly a lot less moaning about people having to go any distance to get a test but I still wonder how usefully that capacity is being used. Our positivity rate is increasing but it is still only a very small percentage of what is being found in Belgium, France, the Czech Republic etc. Why? If we are are really at 50k+ cases a day it really should be higher. There has also always been a large gap between our theoretical capacity and our actual testing.

    The alternative of course is that testing is giving us a more accurate picture than the ONS are assuming in which case the number of cases seems to have peaked on 21st October which would make this lockdown a tad embarrassing.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 31,859

    MaxPB said:

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Our contact tracing strategy is rubbish so we're not finding new cases?

    New Excel issue which limits us to reporting 25k cases per day maximum?
    In which case the ONS data and the hospitalisation is the one to go with - and the government tis right to impose increased restrictions.
    So far the ONS data has followed the trend of the case data, we'll see if this is still the case on Friday with a continued reduction in the R in some regions.
  • glwglw Posts: 7,775
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Florida , Arizona , Georgia , Ohio , North Carolina will all be counting Mail in ballots first . Michigan is allowed to start processing ballots from bigger towns and cities tomorrow. It’s likely then Biden will be leading in all those states well into the night regardless of what happens later so Trumps plan like himself is delusional.
    Trump still to this day claims that he beat Clinton in the popular vote if you discount "the millions of fraudulent votes". I do not seem him conceding defeat, no matter what happens, the only question I have is how far the GOP and the establishment will cooperate with Trump's claims of a deep state coup/stolen election/fraud.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,155
    HYUFD said:
    The site won’t load when you spam it with retweets. Just transcribe the data.

    I BEG YOU.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    HYUFD said:
    Doesn't look good for Trump considering 90 million have already voted and only 138 million voted last time.

    He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.
    72m to 62m Biden wins by 10m based on 2016 turnout
    %=
    Will be about 5m though if total vote is up by 10%
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    I've heard a lot of people on here saying that cases are levelling off. Looking at the data up to the 25th (i.e. to avoid the @Malmesbury death sentence) I'm not seeing a levelling occurring.

    Are people doing something like looking at the reporting date charts?
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    On then to the panjundrum of State polls in the past two days.

    It's fascinating to see Insider Advantage, Susquehanna and Trafalgar which all seem to have a more favourable aspect to the Republicans, frantically putting polls in the field all showing the same thing - an inexplicable (?) late swing to Trump. Clearly, the Trump campaign and supporters are going to fight this to the bitter end which is fair enough - it's how long they fight after the bitter end that is worth considering.

    So then to the battleground;

    Florida: four polls, two showing Biden ahead, two showing Trump ahead but statistically a dead heat and it's enough for me to move the state into the TCTC column.

    North Carolina: two polls though both from pro-Republican pollsters and both showing Trump ahead (unsurprisingly). The polls in this state have been among the most partisan but for now I'm keeping the state in the blue column. CNN has a 6-point Biden lead and that looks more like it.

    Iowa: The Des Moines Register showing Trump ahead by seven was an eerie echo of the 2016 campaign when the equivalent poll also showed a 7-point Trump lead which proved an underestimate as the Republican won by 9.5. The Emerson poll showing Trump ahead by one is a fractional closing of the gap. I do respect the Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register and with their record from 2016 I've put Iowa in the Red column tonight.

    Ohio: an Emerson poll puts Biden ahead 49-48 so this state, which Trump won by 8 last time, is TCTC.

    Arizona: Emerson has Biden ahead by two, CNN has a 4-point advantage while Siena for the New York Times has a 6-point lead. Either way, it looks as though Biden will nick this state.

    Nevada: Emerson has Biden ahead 49-47 but that's a change from their previous last month which had Trump up by two. That was the last poll showing Trump ahead I've seen and on that basis Nevada goes into the Blue column.

    Elsewhere, Biden enjoys comfortable leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

    A poll in Nebraska Congressional District 2 has Biden up 50-47 and that would be a useful pick up for the Democrat. However, Trump looks safe in Utah where he leads 51-44 but he won by 18 last time so the swing to Biden is 5.5% which is pretty much in line with some of what we've seen in the deep Red states.

    My map tonight has 306-169 for Biden with 63 TCTC but that's just Ohio, Florida and Georgia,
  • DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Is it possible that an increasing proportion of our testing is repeat testing of front line staff in the NHS , social care and in education with the result that it is weighted against finding the proportion of new cases that actually exist in society? The fact that the positivity rate is creeping upwards (albeit nothing like what we are seeing on mainland Europe) would suggest that our testing is either getting better or simply finding a smaller proportion of new cases. The assumption of the ONS seems to be the latter.
    Well, the testing capacity is increasing rapidly at the moment. There does not seem to be reports of difficulty in getting a test on demand. There is substantial un-used capacity.
    There's certainly a lot less moaning about people having to go any distance to get a test but I still wonder how usefully that capacity is being used. Our positivity rate is increasing but it is still only a very small percentage of what is being found in Belgium, France, the Czech Republic etc. Why? If we are are really at 50k+ cases a day it really should be higher. There has also always been a large gap between our theoretical capacity and our actual testing.

    The alternative of course is that testing is giving us a more accurate picture than the ONS are assuming in which case the number of cases seems to have peaked on 21st October which would make this lockdown a tad embarrassing.
    I do hear stories of young people deliberately not getting a test to avoid isolating their household...

    I would bet quite a lot on the ONS data, with the exception of age groups who live in institutional settings that it does not sample. Its methodology seems pretty good.

    --AS
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 5,244
    edited November 2020
    nico679 said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Florida , Arizona , Georgia , Ohio , North Carolina will all be counting Mail in ballots first . Michigan is allowed to start processing ballots from bigger towns and cities tomorrow. It’s likely then Biden will be leading in all those states well into the night regardless of what happens later so Trumps plan like himself is delusional.
    Hopefully. I do worry though.

    The counting has to be completed and certified by the State. If Trump can throw enough accusations of fraud around that his supporters interfere with that process, then it may provide cover for State legislatures to appoint electors.

    Then the Democrats are reliant on legal challenges with a stacked judiciary against them. I put nothing past the GOP.
  • Alistair said:

    I've heard a lot of people on here saying that cases are levelling off. Looking at the data up to the 25th (i.e. to avoid the @Malmesbury death sentence) I'm not seeing a levelling occurring.

    Are people doing something like looking at the reporting date charts?

    If they are, they must be banished to Conservative Home for a number of weeks...
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 13,826
    edited November 2020
    This government's advice:

    1. Stay at home.
    2. Do as much outddor exercise as possible.

    Makes sense if you've got a country estate I suppose.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280

    DavidL said:

    dixiedean said:

    Evening All

    I'm trying to stay away from here as much as possible at the moment because it all makes me so very, very depressed.

    However, now that I've been proven right in my assumption that we'd end up this Autumn, and probably sooner rather than later, essentially with April plus schools and masks everywhere, I return to make a further prediction.

    The lockdown will continue, effectively, until next Summer.

    There *might* be a very brief hiatus to allow household mixing over Christmas, presumably because the Government thinks that nobody will obey its rules at that time (although they might not bother to obey them anymore regardless,) but other than that we're going to be locked up all the way until the warm weather comes around. It's inevitable. Lockdowns don't work, they just kick the can of the disease down the road. Finish one and, save for during the Summer, the start of the next is only weeks away.

    The mad scientists are now running the show (Parliament and the Government might as well dissolve themselves and save us the cost of their useless presence,) and their dodgy computer models will demand that we are all incarcerated for the duration. Indeed, under the circumstances it is probably for the best that the affected businesses simply roll over and die rather than being allowed to open for a fortnight and then being shut back down again. Trying to pretend that hospitality, tourism, leisure, the arts and non-food retail are viable when they're going to be opening and closing every five minutes until May or June (and that will all start again if the octogenarians haven't been vaccinated by September) is laughable. Keeping all the doomed employees on furlough is simply delaying the inevitable under such circumstances.

    Therefore, by May or June 2021, all of the shuttered sectors of the economy will have been more-or-less eradicated and unemployment will be running, at an educated guess, somewhere in the ballpark of eight million. At best, next year is going to be a more catastrophic version of 1931. At worst, we're talking 1348, or possibly 410. Broad scale societal collapse. Basically we've had our chips.

    Crumbs that's bleak. Much sympathy. This too will pass.
    Trite but true.
    Ha! Bollocks. At best we'll be dealing with the consequences of this for decades (and some of the more lunatic scientists are already suggesting that masks and social distancing will be with us literally forever.) At worst, it's the end of European civilization as currently constituted. A new Dark Age. Hundreds of years before we recover.

    The country simply can't carry the weight of children, the elderly and a very large fraction of the working age population demanding handouts all at once. The economy will implode, and once it implodes, it will take society with it. It is inevitable.
    I’ve not been slow at any point in being apprehensive about the economic consequences of Covid but this is hysterical nonsense. We are facing a fall in GDP of about 10%, slightly worse than 2008 where GDP fell about 8%.
    That hurt and brought in a decade of “austerity” whilst we rebalanced the economy but it did not bring the end of times and neither will this. vel
    It does we seem will have had the best part of 20 years with no net growth in Europe, something unprecedented since WW 2 and possibly a lot longer. Our default assumptions of growth and increasing wealth will be sorely hit which will no doubt have an impact on confidence.
    But we will survive and so will our society.
    GDP has much, much further to fall. Vast swathes of the economy are being propped up by Government spending on such a gargantuan scale that it cannot possibly continue indefinitely. Either the lending will cease or all that money printing will cause the value of the pound to collapse, so that the trillions being sprayed everywhere will become about as valuable as the Zimbabwean dollar anyway.

    So, how are the old, kiddies and the eight million unemployed to be housed, fed and clothed by our woefully depleted residuum of taxpayers? They won't be.

    Like I said, best case scenario: "Buddy, can you spare a dime?" and the Jarrow Crusade. Worst case scenario: Fall of the Roman Empire.
    Well, we will see but I think that you are seriously wrong. We will probably lose 2-4m jobs but that will put us back to the level of employment we had in 2015. I do not believe we will see anything like the level of unemployment we suffered in the 80s.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 11,155
    edited November 2020
    PB wrecked again on the iPhone thanks to people posting big images and endless retweets.

    It’s like talking to a brick wall.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    edited November 2020
    DavidL said:

    DavidL said:

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Is it possible that an increasing proportion of our testing is repeat testing of front line staff in the NHS , social care and in education with the result that it is weighted against finding the proportion of new cases that actually exist in society? The fact that the positivity rate is creeping upwards (albeit nothing like what we are seeing on mainland Europe) would suggest that our testing is either getting better or simply finding a smaller proportion of new cases. The assumption of the ONS seems to be the latter.
    Well, the testing capacity is increasing rapidly at the moment. There does not seem to be reports of difficulty in getting a test on demand. There is substantial un-used capacity.
    There's certainly a lot less moaning about people having to go any distance to get a test but I still wonder how usefully that capacity is being used. Our positivity rate is increasing but it is still only a very small percentage of what is being found in Belgium, France, the Czech Republic etc. Why? If we are are really at 50k+ cases a day it really should be higher. There has also always been a large gap between our theoretical capacity and our actual testing.

    The alternative of course is that testing is giving us a more accurate picture than the ONS are assuming in which case the number of cases seems to have peaked on 21st October which would make this lockdown a tad embarrassing.
    The level of cases that other countries are finding and their higher positives are associated with having less testing capacity. France may well be on 200K real cases per day, for example, some of the others are at the positivity levels we saw in March - when tests were for nearly certain cases in hospitals....

    The gap between theoretical and actual testing is required by the issues of distributing tests etc - it seems that 90% capacity is where it starts to cause problems. We are well below that.

    So we have -

    1) Lots of tests. Not finding big increases in COVID.
    2) Surveys finding lots of COVID and big increases.
    3) Rapidly increasing hospitalisation.
  • BenpointerBenpointer Posts: 17,893
    edited November 2020
    HYUFD said:
    If that's true and known let's not hang about rolling it out.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    Andy_JS said:

    This government's advice:

    1. Stay at home.
    2. Do as much outddor exercise as possible.

    Makes sense if you've got a country estate I suppose.

    And if it ever stopped bloody raining.
  • Andy_JS said:

    This government's advice:

    1. Stay at home.
    2. Do as much outddor exercise as possible.

    Makes sense if you've got a country estate I suppose.

    But don't do any risky sports like golf....that one where a max of 4 of you spend 4hrs miles from everybody else, with no need to go near each other and you use all your own equipment.
  • CorrectHorseBatteryCorrectHorseBattery Posts: 15,215
    edited November 2020
    https://twitter.com /LiamRichmond/status/1322947455055503361

    Can we all come together and agree, what is wrong with people?

    I’ve split the link so the Tweet doesn’t load.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655
    So based on HYUFD's voting figures, and that over 90 million have voted already, great news for Biden , even with a big increase on 2016, those are good numbers to have banked
  • nichomarnichomar Posts: 7,483

    PB wrecked again on the iPhone thanks to people posting big images and endless retweets.

    It’s like talking to a brick wall.

    Always a problem when the red and green tables come out
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Good questions. Lag doesn't seem to explain it.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from hospitalisations is that it is moving up the age brackets: older people more likely to have severe disease.

    One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from ONS numbers is that it is moving down the age brackets: younger people (probably) more likely to be asymptomatic and hence less likely to get tested.

    Hmm.

    --AS
    image

    It's moving up in all age brackets, apart from 5-9, according to https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923669/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_w40.xlsx
    Is that from ONS survey data, or testing data? It would be interesting to compare the relative proportions of infections in older adults in the two sets (though probably very noisy in the case of ONS because of small samples, and biased by not sampling University students -- or those in care homes I believe).

    --AS
    Testing data - see https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923668/Weekly_COVID19_Surveillance_Report_week_40.pdf
  • Labour is becoming dangerously electable
  • https://twitter.com /LiamRichmond/status/1322947455055503361

    Can we all come together and agree, what is wrong with people?

    I’ve split the link so the Tweet doesn’t load.

    You don't need to split it, just get rid of the https and it won't load.
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592

    PB wrecked again on the iPhone thanks to people posting big images and endless retweets.

    It’s like talking to a brick wall.

    Works fine on Android. All loading problems resolved a few days ago.

    Data requires graphs, and sourcing stuff is important when so much is partisan. Twitter helps asses how biased the source is.
  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    Has anyone come up with an answer to the basic question -

    image

    Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?

    image

    Our contact tracing strategy is rubbish so we're not finding new cases?

    New Excel issue which limits us to reporting 25k cases per day maximum?
    In which case the ONS data and the hospitalisation is the one to go with - and the government tis right to impose increased restrictions.
    So far the ONS data has followed the trend of the case data, we'll see if this is still the case on Friday with a continued reduction in the R in some regions.
    We have had enough time to see an effect on hospital admissions - yet we haven't.... What is happening there?

  • So we have -

    1) Lots of tests. Not finding big increases in COVID.
    2) Surveys finding lots of COVID and big increases.
    3) Rapidly increasing hospitalisation.

    I've got it! It must be due to increasing rates of false negatives!

    When you think about it, it makes perfect sense: the opposite of what Toby Young believes must be true!

    --AS
  • @TSE can you not just disable Tweet replacement so they show up as links instead of rendering the Tweets?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 69,759
    Andy_JS said:

    I wonder for how long this new voting system will delay the result in Maine.

    Hardly matters given how long some states will take anyway.
  • Mal557Mal557 Posts: 655
    stodge said:

    On then to the panjundrum of State polls in the past two days.

    It's fascinating to see Insider Advantage, Susquehanna and Trafalgar which all seem to have a more favourable aspect to the Republicans, frantically putting polls in the field all showing the same thing - an inexplicable (?) late swing to Trump. Clearly, the Trump campaign and supporters are going to fight this to the bitter end which is fair enough - it's how long they fight after the bitter end that is worth considering.

    So then to the battleground;

    Florida: four polls, two showing Biden ahead, two showing Trump ahead but statistically a dead heat and it's enough for me to move the state into the TCTC column.

    North Carolina: two polls though both from pro-Republican pollsters and both showing Trump ahead (unsurprisingly). The polls in this state have been among the most partisan but for now I'm keeping the state in the blue column. CNN has a 6-point Biden lead and that looks more like it.

    Iowa: The Des Moines Register showing Trump ahead by seven was an eerie echo of the 2016 campaign when the equivalent poll also showed a 7-point Trump lead which proved an underestimate as the Republican won by 9.5. The Emerson poll showing Trump ahead by one is a fractional closing of the gap. I do respect the Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register and with their record from 2016 I've put Iowa in the Red column tonight.

    Ohio: an Emerson poll puts Biden ahead 49-48 so this state, which Trump won by 8 last time, is TCTC.

    Arizona: Emerson has Biden ahead by two, CNN has a 4-point advantage while Siena for the New York Times has a 6-point lead. Either way, it looks as though Biden will nick this state.

    Nevada: Emerson has Biden ahead 49-47 but that's a change from their previous last month which had Trump up by two. That was the last poll showing Trump ahead I've seen and on that basis Nevada goes into the Blue column.

    Elsewhere, Biden enjoys comfortable leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Pennsylvania.

    A poll in Nebraska Congressional District 2 has Biden up 50-47 and that would be a useful pick up for the Democrat. However, Trump looks safe in Utah where he leads 51-44 but he won by 18 last time so the swing to Biden is 5.5% which is pretty much in line with some of what we've seen in the deep Red states.

    My map tonight has 306-169 for Biden with 63 TCTC but that's just Ohio, Florida and Georgia,

    Thanks as always for your update Stodge, as I am expecting Trump to sneak all 3 of those states your 'current' map is about where I think things will land with Biden around 300 or just over
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 43,205
    Andy_JS said:

    This government's advice:

    1. Stay at home.
    2. Do as much outddor exercise as possible.

    Makes sense if you've got a country estate I suppose.

    What, in England? In the winter?

    The second one is fuck all anyway. They probably only added it as a token gesture.
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 16,883

    https://twitter.com /LiamRichmond/status/1322947455055503361

    Can we all come together and agree, what is wrong with people?

    I’ve split the link so the Tweet doesn’t load.

    Yeah us sensible folk have been panic buying on the sly and have about 2 years worth of bog roll already.
  • In terms of images, you could host them on a third party site and link to them. With Tweets just split the link up and it won’t load.

    May I suggest we do that for the benefit of others?
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 40,280
    Foxy said:

    PB wrecked again on the iPhone thanks to people posting big images and endless retweets.

    It’s like talking to a brick wall.

    Works fine on Android. All loading problems resolved a few days ago.

    Twitter helps asses
    Surely undeniable?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    If you may remeber I was doing a slightly brainded analysis of EArly voting by doin a comparison between "What would Trump's lead be if Early voters were being cast in the same proportion to the 2016 state results vs what his lead would be if early votes were being cast in proportion to the County Level results"

    The idea being that if turnout is up in Dem Counties proportional to GOP counties that would be bad for Trump.

    In North Carolina Trump is closing towards his "True" lead - his County lead is now 80% of his state lead, previously it was only 30%

    In Pennsylvania though his is super screwed on the EV count. On Raw EV numbers he should be 17 thousand votes ahead. On the county count he is 129 thousand votes behind. No wonder the GOP are looking to invalidate as many Penn EVs as possible.
  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549

    HYUFD said:
    Doesn't look good for Trump considering 90 million have already voted and only 138 million voted last time.

    He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.

    HYUFD said:
    The site won’t load when you spam it with retweets. Just transcribe the data.

    I BEG YOU.
    Actually those YG NUMBERS

    BIDEN 71.6M
    TRUMP 59.9M BASED ON A 2016 TURNOUT

  • MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 20,197
    edited November 2020
    ONS age profile is

    image
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 27,592


    So we have -

    1) Lots of tests. Not finding big increases in COVID.
    2) Surveys finding lots of COVID and big increases.
    3) Rapidly increasing hospitalisation.

    I've got it! It must be due to increasing rates of false negatives!

    When you think about it, it makes perfect sense: the opposite of what Toby Young believes must be true!

    --AS
    One of my colleagues had two negative antigen tests a couple of weeks back, despite being quite unwell and a spouse testing positive and changes on CT chest. There are certainly a number of false negatives about.

    Another colleague was asymptomatic, but tested positive on routine surveillance by occy health.

    I suspect asymptomatic contacts are not being swabbed at present, as tracing falls apart when prevalence is so high.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 34,044

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Basically trying to trigger major civil unrest.
    I think if the networks don't call it then he won't be able to do this. And the networks won't call it. Even more so if the exit polls aren't in his favour. For election coverage, even the likes of Fox News focus heavily on their news teams. Which still aren't particularly corruptible.
    If he makes a statement, the networks will have to cover it, so it will be difficult to prevent him setting the agenda.
    Up to a point. I think the networks, including Fox, aren’t going to play those games on the night.
    In any event, I’m calling Texas* for Biden (narrowly), so I’m not expecting the issue to arise.

    * Hat tip to Mike’s suggestion from a few days back, which is looking good.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 4,725
    Are more Emerson polls due later? Seems late in the day.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 9,364
    edited November 2020
    Mal557 said:


    Thanks as always for your update Stodge, as I am expecting Trump to sneak all 3 of those states your 'current' map is about where I think things will land with Biden around 300 or just over

    The irony of 306-232 for Biden wouldn't be lost on anyone.
  • Andy_JS said:

    This government's advice:

    1. Stay at home.
    2. Do as much outddor exercise as possible.

    Makes sense if you've got a country estate I suppose.

    But don't do any risky sports like golf....that one where a max of 4 of you spend 4hrs miles from everybody else, with no need to go near each other and you use all your own equipment.
    Or even a max of 2 of you spending 4 hours miles from anyone else, which is what we were initially allowed back in May and which does not contradict the new lockdown rules permitting outdoor contact with one person from a different household.

    As I write, the online petition opposing closure of golf courses is up to 234,000 signatures which is quite impressive in the space of just 24 hours. It can be found here:

    https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/309851/signatures/new

  • bigjohnowlsbigjohnowls Posts: 17,549
    Nigelb said:

    alex_ said:

    Scott_xP said:
    Basically trying to trigger major civil unrest.
    I think if the networks don't call it then he won't be able to do this. And the networks won't call it. Even more so if the exit polls aren't in his favour. For election coverage, even the likes of Fox News focus heavily on their news teams. Which still aren't particularly corruptible.
    If he makes a statement, the networks will have to cover it, so it will be difficult to prevent him setting the agenda.
    Up to a point. I think the networks, including Fox, aren’t going to play those games on the night.
    In any event, I’m calling Texas* for Biden (narrowly), so I’m not expecting the issue to arise.

    * Hat tip to Mike’s suggestion from a few days back, which is looking good.
    GOP court knocks off 143k mainly Democrat votes tomorrow though
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 21,319
    Texas Supreme Court has chucked out the 2nd attempt at the case. However there is still the federal court to go.

    https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1322969722875502593
This discussion has been closed.