An un-named Senior Tory predicted yesterday that BoZo would be gone by the locals
That process has accelerated tonight
The obvious series of events is Brexit deal and a vaccine and then Boris says he never fully recovered from COVID and exits stage right leaving somebody else to deal with the shitshow ahead.
Boris to quit with less time as PM under his belt than May? He needs to get to the end of the year just to get to 43rd out of 55 on the list of PMs by tensure.
At least 2022 I reckon. Boris Johnson, PM from 2019-2022 looks much better than 2019-2021, even if he goes in January 2022.
If the Corbynites form their own party and take a similar chunk out of Labour’s support we could end up going in short order from two party politics to Dutch-style fragmentation.
One I don't think they have the guts, two if they don't like non-Corbyn Labour why wouldn't they just return to the plethora of far left parties that exist on the fringe? Corbyn himself is a case in point, never loyal but committed to the brand it seems.
Perhaps the far left parties can form a super group of XR, BLM etc....
I don't think that is in their nature. Not when even a party called Left Unity split.
Didn't the yellowjackets, or whatever they were called, in France supposedly split into two for an election?
Bloody hell..Charles and William, Brenda dodged a bullet.
PRINCE William “struggled to breathe” after being struck down by Covid-19, The Sun can reveal. The Duke of Cambridge kept his diagnosis a secret because he didn’t want to alarm the nation.
Bloody hell..Charles and William, Brenda dodged a bullet.
PRINCE William “struggled to breathe” after being struck down by Covid-19, The Sun can reveal. The Duke of Cambridge kept his diagnosis a secret because he didn’t want to alarm the nation.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Bloody hell..Charles and William, Brenda dodged a bullet.
PRINCE William “struggled to breathe” after being struck down by Covid-19, The Sun can reveal. The Duke of Cambridge kept his diagnosis a secret because he didn’t want to alarm the nation.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
Anyway, we're already stuffed for the whole of this awful Winter. Best that can be hoped for is it does a good enough job that we don't have to go through this shit in endless cycles every Autumn and Winter for the rest of time.
No this is different. This isnt a politician saying they are coming or even the eggheads hoping for some time period, it is the start of the authorities actually looking at the trial data. They will know shortly if they work or not.
I was going to respond to @Black_Rook 's mega post FPT. But others already have. My take on all this is to point to the elephant in the room - students.
In 6 or 7 weeks all these students are going home for Christmas. Shagger will lift the lockdown over Christmas knowing people will not stick to it anyway. So the students leave their palaces of pox to go home and give it to their parents, their siblings, their grandparents.
January is going to be brutal.
?
Cambridge University is testing all students every week.
So, out of a total of 23 000 students, how many students tested positive for COVID in the week 19-25th October?
The answer is 156.
That is 0.7 per cent of the student population ...
So, a plan be might be test all students final week, let the 99.3 per cent of the population that are free of COVID go home, keep the 0.7 per cent infected for another week, and then let them return.
No real problem.
The worrying thing is that the government should be announcing now what the confirmed plan is...instead nothing....what the betting they get to end of November, then some panicked plan.
The Universities are full of smart people. They can figure out what needs to be done themselves without involving the government.
If the universities were acting in the public interest they would've put every course not involving an essential practical element online, and told most of the students never to come.
But they needed to gouge the students for accommodation fees and were worried about demands for partial refunds for putting up with online only learning. Hence the situation in which we now find ourselves.
They are certainly full of smart people, who spun a very smart and convincing lie about close to normal learning experiences for just long enough to get their students to turn up so that they could be incarcerated for months on end.
OTOH, there is no situation that cannot be made worse by the involvement of the Government. So yes, perhaps the universities should just be left to stuff things up on their own?
If the Corbynites form their own party and take a similar chunk out of Labour’s support we could end up going in short order from two party politics to Dutch-style fragmentation.
And trouble in Labour tonight as the unions reject Starmers demand for schools to stay open
Have I missed something? Is Starmer Prime Minister now?
The worst bit of US election coverage is the "exit poll", which they spend hours dip feeding what left handed bisexual Chinese American women in the suburbs thought about such and such a policy. Rather than our exit poll predicts....
If the Corbynites form their own party and take a similar chunk out of Labour’s support we could end up going in short order from two party politics to Dutch-style fragmentation.
And trouble in Labour tonight as the unions reject Starmers demand for schools to stay open
Have I missed something? Is Starmer Prime Minister now?
Well his MPs still have a vote, and they may vote in a way the teaching unions don't like.
A choice at last. The Tories and labour can arm wrestle for the public sector vote - the upwardly mobile, & small businessmen will vote Nige. Worse for the Tories I’d say
The worst bit of US election coverage is the "exit poll", which they spend hours dip feeding what left handed bisexual Chinese American women in the suburbs thought about such and such a policy. Rather than our exit poll predicts....
With ours we get the results in seconds and can go to bed safe in the knowledge it won't be too far off.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
Decent chance the Tories drop to 35% or lower with Farage's new party.
You mean only 1% less than when they won 2 GEs in a row (albeit only 1 with a majority)?
Ok, I don't think anyone expects Labour to drop back down to the low 30s, but the 40s that both have managed in the last few years is a bit unusual since 21st century.
I'm sceptical that it would have much effect TBH as it would probably mainly only pick up the votes that the Tories are already losing to abstention and the existing rump Brexit party at the moment.
Might be more useful to the Lib Dems if it helps create a wedge within the Tory voter coalition.
A choice at last. The Tories and labour can arm wrestle for the public sector vote - the upwardly mobile, & small businessmen will vote Nige. Worse for the Tories I’d say
The worst bit of US election coverage is the "exit poll", which they spend hours dip feeding what left handed bisexual Chinese American women in the suburbs thought about such and such a policy. Rather than our exit poll predicts....
It’s good for gamblers because it’s usually possible to infer a lot from the drip-fed data if you know what you’re looking for.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
Making it shouldn't be an issue. They've already started production even before getting approval. And as for mass roll-out, they do 15 million flu jabs every winter. It's not a hugely different endeavour.
I've updated the spreadsheet comparing 538's projections with the 2016 election result. An interesting fact is that Trump's share of the vote is expected to increase in 16 states.
The most likely difficult outcome with these early vaccines will be if they don't prevent you getting COVID just lessen the impact or the % protection is 50-60%.
Then we won't be able to escape restrictions, but convincing people who have get it they are still at risk is nearly impossible.
That happened ages ago. New management hate Boris and have been the most critical of any paper during the last 6 months.
If it weren’t for the conclusive fact that there’s nothing to know, you would wonder whether they knew something about his private behaviour that the rest of us don’t.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
Making it shouldn't be an issue. They've already started production even before getting approval. And as for mass roll-out, they do 15 million flu jabs every winter. It's not a hugely different endeavour.
Well, let's hope you're right. I just expect everything to be an unmitigated disaster nowadays.
That happened ages ago. New management hate Boris and have been the most critical of any paper during the last 6 months.
If it weren’t for the conclusive fact that there’s nothing to know, you would wonder whether they knew something about his private behaviour that the rest of us don’t.
If the Corbynites form their own party and take a similar chunk out of Labour’s support we could end up going in short order from two party politics to Dutch-style fragmentation.
And trouble in Labour tonight as the unions reject Starmers demand for schools to stay open
Have I missed something? Is Starmer Prime Minister now?
Not sure I understand your comment but the unions are demanding Starmer calls for the schools to close and he unequivocably backs them remaining open. Apparently it is the Corbyn wing that are agitating
I've updated the spreadsheet comparing 538's projections with the 2016 election result. An interesting fact is that Trump's share of the vote is expected to increase in 16 states.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
Who is going to draw the short straw and have the 18-yo squaddie giving them the jab?
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
I understand the sentiment but we didn’t know Covid existed (as a threat to humans) at the start of the year. I believe we will see some vaccination before Christmas and widely in the jan to March period. If this is right, it will be nothun* short of astonishing. It won’t mean normal life straight away but be patient.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
Who is going to draw the short straw and have the 18-yo squaddie giving them the jab?
Arm the squaddies with dart guns....
More likely the pharmacists. In many countries the vaccination level stuff is done entirely via the pharmacies. Plenty of people get their private flu jab via Boots etc already.
It's as big a Biden lead in FL as any poll. I've had NC in the Blue column for a while but this knocks my confidence slightly but it's also made TX a lot closer.
I've now amended my map to 291-131 to Biden with 116 TCTC with both Texas and North Carolina back in the TCTC column.
Here's the story...its something i highlighted earlier about those charts being off.
Death scenarios used by Government to justify second national lockdown may be four times too high
The scenario from Cambridge University was used as part of efforts to justify the introduction of sweeping restrictions.
But data experts have questioned why the scenario - drawn up three weeks ago - was chosen to illustrate the crisis, when the university has produced far more recent forecasts, which are significantly lower.
The modelling presented on Saturday night, which suggests deaths could reach 4,000 a day by December, is so out-of-date that it suggests daily deaths are now around 1,000 a day.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
How much is that process going to be slowed down by the Covid measures themselves? That could impact on this year's flu campaign, never mind what happens if and when a halfway-decent Covid vaccine becomes available.
One curiosity is that no country, no matter how large or however incompetent seems to have had peak mortality much over about 1K per day. It's as if the number frightens people into shielding.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
How much is that process going to be slowed down by the Covid measures themselves? That could impact on this year's flu campaign, never mind what happens if and when a halfway-decent Covid vaccine becomes available.
I don't think we have to worry about flu, vaccine or not:
One curiosity is that no country, no matter how large or however incompetent seems to have had peak mortality much over about 1K per day. It's as if the number frightens people into shielding.
I have suggested this before, that I believe our interconnected world, where we are all part of facebook and WhatsApp groups, when people start hearing a number of people in those groups have got it or know people who have, it is going to cause a reaction.
One curiosity is that no country, no matter how large or however incompetent seems to have had peak mortality much over about 1K per day. It's as if the number frightens people into shielding.
Here's the story...its something i highlighted earlier about those charts being off.
Death scenarios used by Government to justify second national lockdown may be four times too high
The scenario from Cambridge University was used as part of efforts to justify the introduction of sweeping restrictions.
But data experts have questioned why the scenario - drawn up three weeks ago - was chosen to illustrate the crisis, when the university has produced far more recent forecasts, which are significantly lower.
The modelling presented on Saturday night, which suggests deaths could reach 4,000 a day by December, is so out-of-date that it suggests daily deaths are now around 1,000 a day.
Because it wasn’t a balanced view of the science, it was a scare tactic to provide cover for the lockdown. No counter view is allowed, no dissenting science.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
How much is that process going to be slowed down by the Covid measures themselves? That could impact on this year's flu campaign, never mind what happens if and when a halfway-decent Covid vaccine becomes available.
I don't think we have to worry about flu, vaccine or not:
Well, this year looks to be a bumper in terms of people taking flu shots.
Hence the run on them earlier, which caused a shortage. According to the people in the local Boots, doing a roaring trade in Flu jabs. Well up on any previous year.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
How much is that process going to be slowed down by the Covid measures themselves? That could impact on this year's flu campaign, never mind what happens if and when a halfway-decent Covid vaccine becomes available.
More likely flu vaccination will be complete (in time for the onset of flu season in December). Of all the challenges distribution is the least of the worries.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
The problem of logistics is not the sticking in of needles. IM injection is easy to teach and do, it is the logistics. The problems of super cooled storage for some vaccines, and the need for 2 injections a month apart to get efficacy. Not easy on a vast scale.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
How much is that process going to be slowed down by the Covid measures themselves? That could impact on this year's flu campaign, never mind what happens if and when a halfway-decent Covid vaccine becomes available.
More likely flu vaccination will be complete (in time for the onset of flu season in December). Of all the challenges distribution is the least of the worries.
I doubt it. Still no sign of flu vaccine appointment for my husband, who's clinically very vulnerable and meant to have one, and our GP surgery seems generally quite efficient. No private availability in Boots either.
Best we can hope for is that the failure of a significant flu season to materialise in Australia (which might have something to do with the measures deployed against Covid) will be followed here.
He simply cannot give bad news. The wrong PM for the wrong time.
I'm sure he will "seek" to go back to regional lockdowns and ease restrictions. And then Hancock and the modellers will pull another set of grim stats out from their briefcases.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
How much is that process going to be slowed down by the Covid measures themselves? That could impact on this year's flu campaign, never mind what happens if and when a halfway-decent Covid vaccine becomes available.
More likely flu vaccination will be complete (in time for the onset of flu season in December). Of all the challenges distribution is the least of the worries.
I doubt it. Still no sign of flu vaccine appointment for my husband, who's clinically very vulnerable and meant to have one, and our GP surgery seems generally quite efficient. No private availability in Boots either.
Best we can hope for is that the failure of a significant flu season to materialise in Australia (which might have something to do with the measures deployed against Covid) will be followed here.
Have you tried asking? My surgery sent a letter about imminent vacination(flu) but then nothing for three weeks. I called and they attended it. Our work is offering it to staff. Local pharmacies have it. It may be totally different in your area, so apologies if this is the case.
One curiosity is that no country, no matter how large or however incompetent seems to have had peak mortality much over about 1K per day. It's as if the number frightens people into shielding.
USA says hello.
Yes, the US did manage 2K per day in the first wave, but hovering about 1k more recently.
Here's the story...its something i highlighted earlier about those charts being off.
Death scenarios used by Government to justify second national lockdown may be four times too high
The scenario from Cambridge University was used as part of efforts to justify the introduction of sweeping restrictions.
But data experts have questioned why the scenario - drawn up three weeks ago - was chosen to illustrate the crisis, when the university has produced far more recent forecasts, which are significantly lower.
The modelling presented on Saturday night, which suggests deaths could reach 4,000 a day by December, is so out-of-date that it suggests daily deaths are now around 1,000 a day.
Because it wasn’t a balanced view of the science, it was a scare tactic to provide cover for the lockdown. No counter view is allowed, no dissenting science.
"data experts have questioned why the scenario - drawn up three weeks ago - was chosen to illustrate the crisis,"
Really? They are wondering why the worst set of figures (out of date ones as well) were used as Johnson u-turns and forced another national lockdown.
AstraZeneca Plc said on Sunday Britain's health regulator had started an accelerated review of its potential coronavirus vaccine.
"We confirm the MHRA's (Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency) rolling review of our potential COVID-19 vaccine," an AstraZeneca spokesman said.
Vaccines are always coming. Shame they're never actually here.
That seems an unfair comment given how long it reportedly takes to normally develop vaccines.
It wasn't intended in that way. More the simple fact that the total and endless lack of good news about absolutely everything makes one sceptical that we'll ever get there.
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
The NHS can managed to distribute Flu jabs every year. We regularly vaccinate 1/3rd of the population, in a few months.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
How much is that process going to be slowed down by the Covid measures themselves? That could impact on this year's flu campaign, never mind what happens if and when a halfway-decent Covid vaccine becomes available.
More likely flu vaccination will be complete (in time for the onset of flu season in December). Of all the challenges distribution is the least of the worries.
I doubt it. Still no sign of flu vaccine appointment for my husband, who's clinically very vulnerable and meant to have one, and our GP surgery seems generally quite efficient. No private availability in Boots either.
Best we can hope for is that the failure of a significant flu season to materialise in Australia (which might have something to do with the measures deployed against Covid) will be followed here.
Have you tried asking? My surgery sent a letter about imminent vacination(flu) but then nothing for three weeks. I called and they attended it. Our work is offering it to staff. Local pharmacies have it. It may be totally different in your area, so apologies if this is the case.
If lockdown-lite (i.e. lockdown but with education open) doesn't work then keeping it going until the Christmas holidays start will make it full-fat lockdown by default. And we know that that works, as long as we have the same level of compliance as last time.
1. *IF* there's the same level of compliance 2. *IF* it continues all the way until the Summer (because when you stop you go into another cycle of panic about rising cases after approximately seven minutes) 3. *IF* a large fraction of the population doesn't starve to death in the meantime, because so many people are out of work and destitute that the state can no longer afford to stuff all their mouths with food anymore. The fact that the Treasury won't so much as cave to the Marcus Rashford school meals campaign anymore is telling
Apart from that, lockdown is a fantastic solution.
That is a particularly stupid post.
- We had about 10 weeks of lockdown followed by a period of 17 weeks (not 7 minutes) of no lockdown; lockdown will not continue all the way to summer, even under the mismanagement of this inpet government. - No one is starving. - The state can continue to borrow cheap money and/or print money for the foreseeable. - The economic consequences of no lock-down are likely to be worse given the case numbers, hospital overload and deaths would continue to rise.
To the extent that lockdown measures worked (temporarily) earlier this year, then it's almost certainly because of high levels of terror/emotional blackmail driven compliance, which also involved large numbers of terrified people dying at home instead of seeking medical attention, and because it ran very conveniently into one of the warmest Springs on record. This time people are variously despondent, sceptical and sick to death of the whole thing and we have shitty Winter to deal with.
No one is starving yet, because we've not had the tsunami wave of unemployment which is bound to be caused by months and months of continuous or cyclical lockdowns. Large swathes of the economy are already critically weakened, and business confidence will be absolutely zero in sectors like hospitality because nobody knows how long they will be shuttered for or when future restrictions will be reimposed yet again. Do you trust the Government to lift restrictions by December 2nd? Does anyone? If they do then will they be lifted fully, or partially, or everywhere, or only in certain places? And when will the third, fourth and fifth lockdowns occur?
We have to seriously question how many hundreds of billions of pounds of debt the Government can continue to rack up - and we could easily be talking another half-a-trillion if it tries to prop all the affected sectors and workers right through until Summer - before the markets stop lending, and the fact that it all then has to be borrowed through QE makes it obvious that the state is effectively being financed directly through the printing press. And what then?
The lunatic forecasts of the trajectory of this disease are probably incorrect - the infamous Vallance graph was total bollocks; the North-East council leaders were begging not to be put into Tier 3 before this all went to shit because they believed Tier 2 to be working, and so forth. There is no particular reason to believe that the doomsday scenarios which have sent the Government into panic mode are right. And in any event, quite how we are meant to sustain a functioning healthcare system against a background of massive unemployment is quite beyond me. Slightly less than half the total population was in any kind of work even before this all kicked off, the remainder being kids, students, the retired, the unemployed and the economically inactive (the severely disabled, stay-at-home mummies and so on.) Move an extra six or seven million from the working column into the dependent on handouts column and we've had it.
Vallance was predicting 50K cases a week by mid October and according to the ONS he probably wasn't far off that even with the Tier system.
That's not true, he was predicting 50k reported cases based on a 7 day doubling time of reported cases. We're currently at around 18k cases per day on that measure, not 50k. The graph was cases testing positive by reporting day, not the ONS study which uses population sampling and catches asymptomatic cases.
Anyway, it was a graph intended to scare the public into supporting a lockdown just as the laughable ones we saw yesterday and the claims of 4,000 deaths per day. It was a news conference of lies and phantom statistical modelling.
A choice at last. The Tories and labour can arm wrestle for the public sector vote - the upwardly mobile, & small businessmen will vote Nige. Worse for the Tories I’d say
The Tories will not beat Labour for the public sector vote and nor will the Reform Party beat the Tories amongst the corporate private vote or with the retired, the latter most in favour of lockdown.
However Farage might try and make ground with small businessmen, pub and hotel and gym owners etc hit by another lockdown as well as fishermen and working class voters in the ex industrial north and midlands if we get a Deal with the EU that does not regain control of our fishing waters or prevents state aid to industry, though I think the Tories could still get away with the latter but not the former
Douglas Ross pushes for guaranteed furlough for Scotland if it goes into lockdown (though personally if Sturgeon refuses to put Scotland into lockdown at the same time as the rest of the UK she can increase Scottish taxes to pay for the extra furlough herself in my view)
A choice at last. The Tories and labour can arm wrestle for the public sector vote - the upwardly mobile, & small businessmen will vote Nige. Worse for the Tories I’d say
The Tories will not beat Labour for the public sector vote and nor will the Reform Party beat the Tories amongst the corporate private vote or with the retired, the latter most in favour of lockdown.
However Farage might try and make ground with small businessmen, pub and hotel and gym owners etc hit by another lockdown as well as fishermen and working class voters in the ex industrial north and midlands if we get a Deal with the EU that does not regain control of our fishing waters or prevents state aid to industry, though I think the Tories could still get away with the latter but not the former
Sounds about right. The only thing propping up support for lockdown is the financial support. Then that’s withdrawn... On fishing, what did you make of the rumours yesterday? Macron’s winning isn’t he?
A video posted just five hours ago is "motivating a lot of Republicans" to do what, exactly? Vote or tweet?
What I thought most interesting about that video was the bit at the end where it’s edited to show “Harris 2020” coming up first with Biden chucked in afterwards
Comments
I am sure the hospital she is supposed to work at will be pleased...
At least 2022 I reckon. Boris Johnson, PM from 2019-2022 looks much better than 2019-2021, even if he goes in January 2022. I don't think that is in their nature. Not when even a party called Left Unity split.
Didn't the yellowjackets, or whatever they were called, in France supposedly split into two for an election?
PRINCE William “struggled to breathe” after being struck down by Covid-19, The Sun can reveal. The Duke of Cambridge kept his diagnosis a secret because he didn’t want to alarm the nation.
https://www.thesun.co.uk/news/13080634/prince-william-secret-covid-battle/
The quickest way is to report there is a run.
https://www.itv.com/news/2020-10-15/queen-visits-porton-down-with-william-on-her-first-public-engagement-since-lockdown
I'm an idiot, this is old
But they needed to gouge the students for accommodation fees and were worried about demands for partial refunds for putting up with online only learning. Hence the situation in which we now find ourselves.
They are certainly full of smart people, who spun a very smart and convincing lie about close to normal learning experiences for just long enough to get their students to turn up so that they could be incarcerated for months on end.
OTOH, there is no situation that cannot be made worse by the involvement of the Government. So yes, perhaps the universities should just be left to stuff things up on their own?
Florida Biden 51% Trump 46%
Georgian Biden 48% Trump 49%
Texas Biden 49% Trump 49% !!
NC Biden 47% Trump 47%
So 3 pretty much tied and FL +5 for Biden
https://twitter.com/nigel_farage/status/1323024828132134913?s=21
Something will probably be wrong with it. And even if it's good enough to make a real difference the country will probably be bankrupt before we've managed to make it in sufficient quantities and get it into all the oldies. Especially since the latter part of the equation is down to the NHS to get the job done on a timescale of less than years.
Might be more useful to the Lib Dems if it helps create a wedge within the Tory voter coalition.
Usually works.
Mostly, it makes Bidens vote more efficient.
Then we won't be able to escape restrictions, but convincing people who have get it they are still at risk is nearly impossible.
An all hands to the pumps effort using everyone who is qualified to play with syringes.....
More likely the pharmacists. In many countries the vaccination level stuff is done entirely via the pharmacies. Plenty of people get their private flu jab via Boots etc already.
https://twitter.com/hendopolis/status/1323028875799109632?s=19
It's as big a Biden lead in FL as any poll. I've had NC in the Blue column for a while but this knocks my confidence slightly but it's also made TX a lot closer.
I've now amended my map to 291-131 to Biden with 116 TCTC with both Texas and North Carolina back in the TCTC column.
Death scenarios used by Government to justify second national lockdown may be four times too high
The scenario from Cambridge University was used as part of efforts to justify the introduction of sweeping restrictions.
But data experts have questioned why the scenario - drawn up three weeks ago - was chosen to illustrate the crisis, when the university has produced far more recent forecasts, which are significantly lower.
The modelling presented on Saturday night, which suggests deaths could reach 4,000 a day by December, is so out-of-date that it suggests daily deaths are now around 1,000 a day.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/11/01/death-scenarios-used-government-justify-second-national-lockdown/
https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/flu-season-never-came-to-the-southern-hemisphere1/
One has to wonder to be honest.
https://twitter.com/kamalaharris/status/1322963321994289154?s=21
He simply cannot give bad news. The wrong PM for the wrong time.
Hence the run on them earlier, which caused a shortage. According to the people in the local Boots, doing a roaring trade in Flu jabs. Well up on any previous year.
All bases covered.
Biden 52.0%
Trump 47.3%
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/pennsylvania/
Best we can hope for is that the failure of a significant flu season to materialise in Australia (which might have something to do with the measures deployed against Covid) will be followed here.
Really? They are wondering why the worst set of figures (out of date ones as well) were used as Johnson u-turns and forced another national lockdown.
Excluding AtlasIntel which is a clear outlier, every other poll has a Biden lead between 5% and 7%.
Anyway, it was a graph intended to scare the public into supporting a lockdown just as the laughable ones we saw yesterday and the claims of 4,000 deaths per day. It was a news conference of lies and phantom statistical modelling.
However Farage might try and make ground with small businessmen, pub and hotel and gym owners etc hit by another lockdown as well as fishermen and working class voters in the ex industrial north and midlands if we get a Deal with the EU that does not regain control of our fishing waters or prevents state aid to industry, though I think the Tories could still get away with the latter but not the former
https://twitter.com/Douglas4Moray/status/1323019039636099072?s=20
https://twitter.com/FrankLuntz/status/1323049012245663744?s=20
On fishing, what did you make of the rumours yesterday? Macron’s winning isn’t he?