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Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday – politicalbetting.com
Why all eyes should be on Maine on Tuesday – politicalbetting.com
As Maine goes, so goes the nation?
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As Maine goes, so goes the nation?
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FACT.
Only being first so people can comment on this thread.
Imagine how conflicted you would have been had Hawaii adopted it...
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1322976632156684289?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1322966357512769536?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1322954033716465665?s=20
https://twitter.com/GuidoFawkes/status/1322976706815094784?s=20
@glw
Dido Harding was (in my view) simply appointed as a back-hander. Here's some free cash, and you don't need to do anything. I think it's reasonably clear that her career is based on this.
Good for her, but shit for us when she's required to actually do something.
He needs around an extra 40 million people to vote who didn't last time to win.
Thanks @stocky for the trump nv tip
6 Seems like a decent enough price
That’s my only pro trump bet. I’m on the look out for a few more trump hedges to somewhat offset my main biden4potus position
Any other tips anyone?
The only way I can possibly see him winning is either if people have been lying about their support of Trump to pollsters or they just get asked less often.
https://twitter.com/DanSigner/status/1322944201978306561
Why are the reported case numbers diverting from the ONS numbers? And why are the case number diverging from the hospitalisations?
So far as I can see she's just not up to the job, and given what her job is then that's not to be ignored. (Happy to be contradicted, or even better proved wrong)
We know that there were a chunk of voters who really, really ought to have voted for Clinton H but didn't.
The simplest explanation of the early voting data is that they've turned out this time, and that they've broken for Biden.
Meanwhile, Trump needs the same share of votes as 2016, distributed in the same, fairly flukey way, to win.
Rationally, that should be vanishingly unlikely. So why is my soul troubled?
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/wi/
As we enter the final 72 hours of the US election campaign, a panglossian of polls especially at the State level and some especially panglossian for fans of Trump.
Starting with the national polling and not a huge amount to be honest over the weekend. The daily IBD/TIPP has Biden's lowest number for a while but still a 5-point lead at 49-44 in a 4-way contest including Jorgensen and Hawkins.
An NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll has Biden ahead 52-42. Once again, the key number is among White voters Trump leads 51-45. That compares with a 58-37 lead in 2016 and represents a 7.5% swing to the Democrats. This may explain what's happening in the Rust Belt and what may or may not be happening elsewhere.
The equivalent poll in the 2016 campaign had Clinton ahead 48-43 so Clinton's vote share spot on and Trump's underestimated then.
Grabs popcorn
New Excel issue which limits us to reporting 25k cases per day maximum?
One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from hospitalisations is that it is moving up the age brackets: older people more likely to have severe disease.
One hypothesis for case numbers diverging from ONS numbers is that it is moving down the age brackets: younger people (probably) more likely to be asymptomatic and hence less likely to get tested.
Hmm.
--AS
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8902745/First-Briton-catch-Covid-dies.html
It's moving up in all age brackets, apart from 5-9, according to https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/923669/Weekly_COVID19_report_data_w40.xlsx
So, how are the old, kiddies and the eight million unemployed to be housed, fed and clothed by our woefully depleted residuum of taxpayers? They won't be.
Like I said, best case scenario: "Buddy, can you spare a dime?" and the Jarrow Crusade. Worst case scenario: Fall of the Roman Empire.
https://twitter.com/cnnbrk/status/1322940922171187201
But I can see more blue leaning states using it, thereby allowing people to vote for third party candidates without handing the state to the wrong main party, as happened with Perot and Nader.
--AS
The alternative of course is that testing is giving us a more accurate picture than the ONS are assuming in which case the number of cases seems to have peaked on 21st October which would make this lockdown a tad embarrassing.
I BEG YOU.
%=
Will be about 5m though if total vote is up by 10%
Are people doing something like looking at the reporting date charts?
It's fascinating to see Insider Advantage, Susquehanna and Trafalgar which all seem to have a more favourable aspect to the Republicans, frantically putting polls in the field all showing the same thing - an inexplicable (?) late swing to Trump. Clearly, the Trump campaign and supporters are going to fight this to the bitter end which is fair enough - it's how long they fight after the bitter end that is worth considering.
So then to the battleground;
Florida: four polls, two showing Biden ahead, two showing Trump ahead but statistically a dead heat and it's enough for me to move the state into the TCTC column.
North Carolina: two polls though both from pro-Republican pollsters and both showing Trump ahead (unsurprisingly). The polls in this state have been among the most partisan but for now I'm keeping the state in the blue column. CNN has a 6-point Biden lead and that looks more like it.
Iowa: The Des Moines Register showing Trump ahead by seven was an eerie echo of the 2016 campaign when the equivalent poll also showed a 7-point Trump lead which proved an underestimate as the Republican won by 9.5. The Emerson poll showing Trump ahead by one is a fractional closing of the gap. I do respect the Selzer poll for the Des Moines Register and with their record from 2016 I've put Iowa in the Red column tonight.
Ohio: an Emerson poll puts Biden ahead 49-48 so this state, which Trump won by 8 last time, is TCTC.
Arizona: Emerson has Biden ahead by two, CNN has a 4-point advantage while Siena for the New York Times has a 6-point lead. Either way, it looks as though Biden will nick this state.
Nevada: Emerson has Biden ahead 49-47 but that's a change from their previous last month which had Trump up by two. That was the last poll showing Trump ahead I've seen and on that basis Nevada goes into the Blue column.
Elsewhere, Biden enjoys comfortable leads in Wisconsin, Michigan, New Mexico, Virginia and Pennsylvania.
A poll in Nebraska Congressional District 2 has Biden up 50-47 and that would be a useful pick up for the Democrat. However, Trump looks safe in Utah where he leads 51-44 but he won by 18 last time so the swing to Biden is 5.5% which is pretty much in line with some of what we've seen in the deep Red states.
My map tonight has 306-169 for Biden with 63 TCTC but that's just Ohio, Florida and Georgia,
I would bet quite a lot on the ONS data, with the exception of age groups who live in institutional settings that it does not sample. Its methodology seems pretty good.
--AS
The counting has to be completed and certified by the State. If Trump can throw enough accusations of fraud around that his supporters interfere with that process, then it may provide cover for State legislatures to appoint electors.
Then the Democrats are reliant on legal challenges with a stacked judiciary against them. I put nothing past the GOP.
1. Stay at home.
2. Do as much outddor exercise as possible.
Makes sense if you've got a country estate I suppose.
It’s like talking to a brick wall.
The gap between theoretical and actual testing is required by the issues of distributing tests etc - it seems that 90% capacity is where it starts to cause problems. We are well below that.
So we have -
1) Lots of tests. Not finding big increases in COVID.
2) Surveys finding lots of COVID and big increases.
3) Rapidly increasing hospitalisation.
Can we all come together and agree, what is wrong with people?
I’ve split the link so the Tweet doesn’t load.
Data requires graphs, and sourcing stuff is important when so much is partisan. Twitter helps asses how biased the source is.
When you think about it, it makes perfect sense: the opposite of what Toby Young believes must be true!
--AS
The second one is fuck all anyway. They probably only added it as a token gesture.
May I suggest we do that for the benefit of others?
The idea being that if turnout is up in Dem Counties proportional to GOP counties that would be bad for Trump.
In North Carolina Trump is closing towards his "True" lead - his County lead is now 80% of his state lead, previously it was only 30%
In Pennsylvania though his is super screwed on the EV count. On Raw EV numbers he should be 17 thousand votes ahead. On the county count he is 129 thousand votes behind. No wonder the GOP are looking to invalidate as many Penn EVs as possible.
BIDEN 71.6M
TRUMP 59.9M BASED ON A 2016 TURNOUT
Ha
Another colleague was asymptomatic, but tested positive on routine surveillance by occy health.
I suspect asymptomatic contacts are not being swabbed at present, as tracing falls apart when prevalence is so high.
In any event, I’m calling Texas* for Biden (narrowly), so I’m not expecting the issue to arise.
* Hat tip to Mike’s suggestion from a few days back, which is looking good.
As I write, the online petition opposing closure of golf courses is up to 234,000 signatures which is quite impressive in the space of just 24 hours. It can be found here:
https://petition.parliament.uk/petitions/309851/signatures/new
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1322969722875502593