This (from 538) has gone up a touch, even as Trump's overall chances have gone down. Might be worth thinking about.
New Hampshire or Nevada most likely
I've been following Jon Ralstons early voting blog in Nevada closely and the mood music there is that Biden may not be doing as well as Clinton did based on EV so Nevada might be a (slim) possibility for sure
Marist's final Florida poll was Clinton 45% and Trump 44%, their final North Carolina poll was Clinton 47% and Trump 41% and their final Pennsylvania poll was Clinton 51% and Trump 39% so they forecast all 3 swing states wrong, just Florida slightly less wrong than the other 2. How on earth they are an A grade pollster when they got 2016 so wrong therefore is beyond me?
Marist's final Florida poll was Clinton 45% and Trump 44%, their final North Carolina poll was Clinton 47% and Trump 41% and their final Pennsylvania poll was Clinton 51% and Trump 39% so they forecast all 3 swing states wrong, just Florida slightly less wrong than the other 2. How on earth they are an A grade pollster when they got 2016 so wrong therefore is beyond me?
p.s. I don't even think Florida or Pennsylvania are any longer in play.
You mean for Trump? If so i disagree, i think he has a fair chance of wining both. If you mean Pence, he has a very good chance with PA but i suspect FL will stay red. Difference is Trump really needs both those states, Biden could win without either, though more difficult if he lost both ofc.</blockquote
I meant Biden not Pence ofc though in this crazy year, who knows...
Whoa Corbyn suspended. Big move from Starmer. Leadership.
That's actually how the Americans do it, they multiply the quarterly rate by 4 and call it annualised growth rather than a more complicated formula with compound growth rates etc...
Marist's final Florida poll was Clinton 45% and Trump 44%, their final North Carolina poll was Clinton 47% and Trump 41% and their final Pennsylvania poll was Clinton 51% and Trump 39% so they forecast all 3 swing states wrong, just Florida slightly less wrong than the other 2. How on earth they are an A grade pollster when they got 2016 so wrong therefore is beyond me?
Marist's final Florida poll was Clinton 45% and Trump 44%, their final North Carolina poll was Clinton 47% and Trump 41% and their final Pennsylvania poll was Clinton 51% and Trump 39% so they forecast all 3 swing states wrong, just Florida slightly less wrong than the other 2. How on earth they are an A grade pollster when they got 2016 so wrong therefore is beyond me?
Marist's final Florida poll was Clinton 45% and Trump 44%, their final North Carolina poll was Clinton 47% and Trump 41% and their final Pennsylvania poll was Clinton 51% and Trump 39% so they forecast all 3 swing states wrong, just Florida slightly less wrong than the other 2. How on earth they are an A grade pollster when they got 2016 so wrong therefore is beyond me?
Two big outlier polls recently, Wisconsin + 17 / Texas + 9 Biden. I know the sampling WILL be wrong but it's difficult to generate polls like that even as outliers - particularly the Wisconsin one if the true state of the race is anywhere near close.
Trump cut to 10% on 538 but 2.86 on Betfair. Has there ever been such a disconnect between evidence and odds on a high profile betting market?
Yes.
One Man started the 1996 Gold Cup as the 11-8 favourite but finished sixth behind Imperial Call. Absolutely everybody who knew anything about steeplechasing knew the horse simply could not run at racing speed beyond three miles. The GC is run over a stiff 3m 2f, so it had next to zero chance.
It was the most extreme example I have ever encountered of the odds being wrong, but the 2020 US Presidential election is running it close.
Good riddance to Corbyn. Vile antisemite and he should have responded to today by being apologetic and showing regret rather than pretending it was all a political witchhunt.
If Tory MPs and lockdown sceptics want to make a difference, they should demand that the Government come clean on the costs of current and future restrictions. They should insist on sound accounting
There are three clauses I’d like to see in public procurement contracts (whether for goods or services) like these:-
1. No contracts to be awarded to companies where any part of the corporate structure is established in a tax haven. Companies should not be benefiting from providing goods/services to the public sector and then be able to avoid paying tax on the profits from such contracts.
2. Penalty clauses in all such contracts. Final payments on such contracts only to be made on a staged basis after a period of time so that final payments are not made until after the contract has been completed and it has been determined that there are no faults with the goods and/or no issues with the services provided. A bit like the bonus provisions in city contracts - where payment is not given until 3 or 5 years after the awards.
3. No dividends to be paid out by the company in relation to the profits from such contracts until final payment as under 2.
There is nothing wrong in principle with private companies providing goods/services to the public sector. But we should do much much more to ensure that they are only paid for providing quality goods/services and that tax is paid in full in this country. The impression now being given is that companies are just gouging the government for money, sending it offshore or out to shareholders and the taxpayer is being short-changed in every sense.
I'm in 100% agreement with these. However, how likely is it that a Government of any stripe actually puts them in place? There is a very basic issue of politicians being paid *relatively* modestly, yet holding the power over decisions worth tens of millions to various actors. Where that is the case, something is going to give, and fairly frequently.
I don't have a solution, but my feeling is that there needs to be a carrot-based scheme, whereby politicians are handsomely rewarded when the country's economy does well, and continue to be rewarded, post-retirement. A carrot based solution (as opposed to a stick-based one) is the only one that stands a chance of being put into place.
@HYUFD we've already discussed all those SurveyMonkey polls from yesterday. It would be good if you didn't spam up the thread with an unnecessary amount of Twitter links if you can help it.
Well obviously some didn't see them as per the comments after and given they have only come out in the last 12 hours I have no problem whatsoever in posting them and will continue to do the same when the next ones come out
The trouble is mate that they bung up the load times really badly on the iPhone.
I've taken to transcribing poll results into text for that reason – the tweets make the threads inaccessible for iPhone/iPad users.
I too wish HY wouldn’t spam so many tweets into his posts. It is making using this site very difficult
Have I missed anything apart from the odd general election, leadership elections, pandemic, POTUS campaign and TSE going over to the dark side of pineapple pizza?
There's been a minor change in our trading relationships with Europe that some are quite exercised about.
Yes I had noticed that David. I'm finding it increasingly difficult to find east European staff to pick pineapples from my hothouses for the new Auchentennach Pizza Extravanganza ....
Pleased to know that you are diversifying into growing markets in these difficult times.
You've got to move with the times. I mean, its not as if Lib Dem canvassers for the pies is a growth market, is it?
Bank of Italy’s governor warns of Depression as covid grips europe.
"Ignazio Visco, the Bank of Italy’s governor, fears that the Keynesian ‘paradox of thrift’ could set off a “negative spiral” as the pandemic drags on and frightened families and firms batten down the hatches in concert, a process that can only be checked by massive monetary and fiscal intervention."
Fair play to SKS, after his presser I wasn't expecting this so soon
I did have a feeling that Starmer was giving Corbyn the room to end up in trouble without having to do it from the EHRC report. Didn't think it would be this quick.
Trump cut to 10% on 538 but 2.86 on Betfair. Has there ever been such a disconnect between evidence and odds on a high profile betting market?
Yes.
One Man started the 1996 Gold Cup as the 11-8 favourite but finished sixth behind Imperial Call. Absolutely everybody who knew anything about steeplechasing knew the horse simply could not run at racing speed beyond three miles. The GC is run over a stiff 3m 2f, so it had next to zero chance.
It was the most extreme example I have ever encountered of the odds being wrong, but the 2020 US Presidential election is running it close.
Bank of Italy’s governor warns of Depression as covid grips europe.
"Ignazio Visco, the Bank of Italy’s governor, fears that the Keynesian ‘paradox of thrift’ could set off a “negative spiral” as the pandemic drags on and frightened families and firms batten down the hatches in concert, a process that can only be checked by massive monetary and fiscal intervention."
That's an unusual set of polls. Biden ahead nationally only by 4, but by 6 or more in the swing states of PA, AZ, MI and WI.
On that basis Biden has a very efficient vote and could win the Electoral College even if behind on the popular vote.
Wonder how SurveyMonkey came up with that result?
They do huge sample sizes and very little adjustment. That's how they differ from the other pollsters, I think.
They also sample over a long time so if you believe voting intention changes with time (exposure to the campaign, debates or events) then check the field dates.
What is the Barnesian plan for watching on Tuesday night? Are there accessible channels which actually show results down to county level?
@NickPalmer Nick I don't have a plan except for providing a Zoom platform as a complement to PB so those who are prepared to show their faces can.
I'm assuming the postings, tips, channels etc will continue as usual to be on PB.
I'm hoping the Zoom meet-up will work informally with people self muted except when they wish to speak. How it works will depend on the numbers on it. Could be chaotic. I might have to use the general mute button and the raised hand mechanism if it gets too much. But I also want to watch the action on the telly and manage my book! We'll see how it goes. Interesting experiment.
You have to nee very careful indeed at taking the polls HYUFD posts at face value. He is very selective and regularly ignores later polls from the same pollster that don't suit his narrative. He has an agenda and everything he posts on the US needs to be seen in that light - eg. constant ramping of Trafalgar and Rasmussen.
That 3.3 day doubling time in London looks bad. Let's see what the ONS data says tomorrow.
London is empty so its hard to imagine an R rate that high
"London is empty"... Er what are you talking about? London has a population of over 9 million people! We are all still here.
I think thats the assumption that 'london' is the central tourist themepark.
London is one of those topics that people who know fuck all about it like to opine on here. Here's a suggestion - people who don't live in London and hate London, why don't you stop talking about London? Or at least stop taking our hard-earned money. One of the two.
Excellent. Let's make it general.
Posters who don't live in Scotland and hate Scotland should stop talking about Scotland.
Posters who don't live in Wales and hate Wales should stop talking about Wales.
Threads should be much more manageable now.
People who don't live in the USA and who hate the USA should stop talking about WH2020.
People who don't live in France and who hate France should stop talking about Charlie Hebdo
People who arent teachers and don't like teachers shoud not talk about Corona rules in schools.
People who don't wear masks and hate masks should stop talking about corona masks.
....
And a safe space for pineapple-on-pizza eating, Radiohead listening posters!
Comments
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/2016-election/polls-clinton-ahead-florida-pennsylvania-n662076
https://www.scribd.com/document/329400532/NBC-News-WSJ-Marist-Florida-Poll
Their final poll (Oct 26) was 45/44... https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-election-forecast/florida/
I hope all those who said they would praise Sir K for strong action will now do so!
https://www.nbcnews.com/meet-the-press/polls-clinton-leads-trump-north-carolina-dead-heat-florida-n675246
Still, my original contention that their final poll was a virtual tie was correct(ish).
One Man started the 1996 Gold Cup as the 11-8 favourite but finished sixth behind Imperial Call. Absolutely everybody who knew anything about steeplechasing knew the horse simply could not run at racing speed beyond three miles. The GC is run over a stiff 3m 2f, so it had next to zero chance.
It was the most extreme example I have ever encountered of the odds being wrong, but the 2020 US Presidential election is running it close.
Good riddance to Corbyn. Vile antisemite and he should have responded to today by being apologetic and showing regret rather than pretending it was all a political witchhunt.
NEW THREAD
I don't have a solution, but my feeling is that there needs to be a carrot-based scheme, whereby politicians are handsomely rewarded when the country's economy does well, and continue to be rewarded, post-retirement. A carrot based solution (as opposed to a stick-based one) is the only one that stands a chance of being put into place.
"Ignazio Visco, the Bank of Italy’s governor, fears that the Keynesian ‘paradox of thrift’ could set off a “negative spiral” as the pandemic drags on and frightened families and firms batten down the hatches in concert, a process that can only be checked by massive monetary and fiscal intervention."
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business/2020/10/28/double-dip-lockdowns-threaten-overwhelm-europes-economic-defences/
I'm assuming the postings, tips, channels etc will continue as usual to be on PB.
I'm hoping the Zoom meet-up will work informally with people self muted except when they wish to speak. How it works will depend on the numbers on it. Could be chaotic. I might have to use the general mute button and the raised hand mechanism if it gets too much. But I also want to watch the action on the telly and manage my book! We'll see how it goes. Interesting experiment.