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US Election Night: The Ten Counties We Need to Watch (Part One of Two) – politicalbetting.com
US Election Night: The Ten Counties We Need to Watch (Part One of Two) – politicalbetting.com
US Election Day (which is, I suppose, a misnomer given most votes have now been cast) is just five days away. Here – in order of reporting – are the first five of the ten counties punters need to watch in order to correctly estimate the likely election result.
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https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/election-us-2020-54727921
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/28/cant-let-dodgy-accounting-lead-us-disastrous-second-lockdown/
The Supreme Court has basically told Pennsylvania voters who use a postal vote that its validity depends on the efficiency of the postal service, as they will only decide how to treat those votes after the election.
Pennsylvania Voters, Do Not Leave Your Mail-In Ballots in the Hands of the Supreme Court
https://slate.com/news-and-politics/2020/10/pennsylvania-late-ballots-supreme-court-alito.html
If the election does hang on those votes, which is far from impossible, how can they then make an unbiased ruling ?
https://goodlawproject.org/news/special-procurement-channels/
I’m not convinced even a swingy district in Indiana is going to tell us all that much.
The best estimates are that infections peaked at ~120,000 per day in the spring. But it took much less time to increase to that rate. Although the ONS figures are in arrears they suggest it's unlikely we're at 100,000 a day at the moment.
If its going to be for six months more (and a year plus in total), I think more consideration should be given to other factors, but it cant be done fairly and effectively through "accounting".
1. No contracts to be awarded to companies where any part of the corporate structure is established in a tax haven. Companies should not be benefiting from providing goods/services to the public sector and then be able to avoid paying tax on the profits from such contracts.
2. Penalty clauses in all such contracts. Final payments on such contracts only to be made on a staged basis after a period of time so that final payments are not made until after the contract has been completed and it has been determined that there are no faults with the goods and/or no issues with the services provided. A bit like the bonus provisions in city contracts - where payment is not given until 3 or 5 years after the awards.
3. No dividends to be paid out by the company in relation to the profits from such contracts until final payment as under 2.
There is nothing wrong in principle with private companies providing goods/services to the public sector. But we should do much much more to ensure that they are only paid for providing quality goods/services and that tax is paid in full in this country. The impression now being given is that companies are just gouging the government for money, sending it offshore or out to shareholders and the taxpayer is being short-changed in every sense.
Marcus Rashford is probably nailed on now even if, on sporting achievement, Lewis Hamilton is more deserving. Hamilton is odds-against on Betfair, btw.
They've mocked mask wearing, taken a pop at all levels of restrictions short of lockdown, and relentlessly spread misinformation non-stop.
The difference they're going to make is getting us back into a full lockdown.
The irony is that I'd describe myself as sceptical over full lockdowns - but Young and his followers are relentless deniers, apparently statistically illiterate, and won't settle for anything short of "it's not a problem!"
O/T: worth hearing this one-minute speech on the school meals issue by a peer who I don't remember ever meeting - calm, sober, non-partisan and very touching:
https://youtu.be/jcSf8VYXQBQ
Time to open up F1 competition from its duopoly. At the least 3 cars per brand. Ideally each driver drives each brand twice a year, the winner will then be the best driver out of 20 rather than 2.
It was like watching two slugs making love
https://twitter.com/Independent/status/1321737671673303040?s=20
If masks etc can control R enough then there would be no need for a lockdown, but these illiterate fools are making a lockdown more likely not less.
They're like Corbynistas who made a Tory government more likely.
If a company is suffering cash flow issues I’d be wondering how they could provide quality stuff and how a penalty clause would work.
What we need to avoid is the “take the money and run” approach which seems to be prevalent.
https://twitter.com/RachelReevesMP/status/1321712910947753984?s=20
But then this is a good day to bury bad news....
During a pandemic surely getting much-needed PPE quickly and rapidly is more important than whether some money gets wasted. If you end up leaving doctors short on PPE but you've saved a million then that is a false economy surely?
Also, does the BBC have to be a little careful. There was a row concerning one of their commentators who had to get a commentary line on Rashford authorised on the grounds of political neutrality. Can the BBC nominate him for this award? I'm not certain - obviously if he isn't, there'll be a hell of an argument, but the BBC does have to play by its own rules.
- If immunity levels in any area (countrywide, or citywide, like London) are anything like 60%, then an R0 of 3.0 becomes an Rt of 1.2. With almost any adherence to restrictions, that would push it down below 1.0.
- The highest possible number of false positives in cases measured is the number of cases measured. If, say, you have 114,274 tests and 400 positives, the maximum number of false positives is 400. Not 914 (the number expected if false positive rates are 0.8% and the sample prevalence is zero). Or 3,428 (the number expected if false positive rates are 3% - the smallest number compatible with "a few percent"). You cannot look at 400 results and say that 3,428 of them are false. You can't even say that 914 of them are false. And we had positivity rates of that level (that's actually the result from the 4th of July, and 17 other days in July and early August had similar levels of positivity)
The actual publication in question, by the way -
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf
Those poor victims. To offer condolences seems wholly inadequate but they are nonetheless offered.
Nice Mayor Christian Estrosi said that one person had been arrested.
He said everything pointed to a "terrorist attack at the heart of the Notre-Dame basilica"."
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-54729957
Wikipedia
I'm trying to envisage his segment on the show - how can the BBC cover it without getting into politics? It's not like he's been raising money for charity. He's lobbying the government to change policy, which is fine, but is it appropriate for the BBC to have a segment on this without giving both sides of the debate?
Huge monoliths, with changes creating work faster than it can be done, leading to vast, conflicting specifications.... Well, it's not surprising that the work can only be done by huge companies that can absorb such behaviour.
I think what we need are more POCs, and a fundamental change in giant projects - breaking them into smaller pieces, better specs, limiting changes...
There is something very very wrong in the world.
Re your second: if the clauses are drafted in advance and automatically included in such contracts then there should be no issue. You both get the PPE and the ability to recover monies if not provided / tax paid etc.
Whereas in some cases we’ve both wasted the money and not got the PPE which is the worst of all worlds.
The claim that this is an emergency and therefore there is no need for any sort of checks is a pretext used by every fraudster everywhere. Clauses like these should not bother competent companies but they will help weed out snake oil salesmen and fraudsters.
43 seconds of deliberation.
'Send him down.'
https://www.bsg.ox.ac.uk/sites/default/files/2020-10/BSG-WP-2020-035-v1_0.pdf
However, it's the regulations more than the money that's led to the current situation. On top of that, Brawn came from nowhere to win, and that was the foundation for Mercedes' reign. Ferrari has had precious little success of late, so suggesting it's all down to money is not something with which I can agree.
Hamilton's section will almost certainly focus on the sporting achievement. The same can't be said of Marcus "I lost three semi finals" Rashford.
Not sure how Leeds and WY can be described as "two areas". Anyway, Tier 3 at the weekend, I guess.
2. and 3. are broadbrush requirements which may not be applicable in all cases. The dividends bit wouldn't work I think - how will SERCO et al. disentangle their profits on this particular contract vs. others. They will easily be able to get around such a restriction.
The important thing is to have capable people negotiating these contracts, with the right incentives.
At the moment our politicians are overly ideological about such things, convinced the private sector will deliver everything better, and in some cases are just corrupt and giving money to their mates.
The fact that they established special procurement channels shows to some extent that the normal procurement channels would have worked to prevent this kind of thing highlighted by good law project.
"Row over 'rude' Charlie Hebdo cartoon mocking Turkey's President Erdogan
A caricature of the Turkish leader in his underwear causes a new diplomatic spat with France."
https://news.sky.com/story/row-over-rude-charlie-hebdo-cartoon-mocking-turkeys-president-erdogan-12116831
I could do them in my pyjamas if I wanted to but being awake is definitely required.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/
ETA it is the MBE from HMG that defuses any accusation of bias. Social media and newspapers will of course fill in the gaps.
Another option, of course, is to revert to the old fashioned way. Let the public vote for who they want - no nominations and no phone lines.