(CNN): The GOP is starting to look a lot like an autocratic party, a large study into political identity has found.
Experts from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden said the US Republican Party had become more illiberal and populist in recent decades and that its recent retreat from democratic norms has left it resembling authoritarian ruling parties like Hungary's Fidesz and Turkey's AKP.
"What we see is that the disrespect of political opponents, the encouragement of violence and also the violation of minority rights ... they have all clearly increased with the Republican Party in recent years, since [President Donald Trump] came in the leadership but also before that," Anna Luehrmann, V-Dem's deputy director and one of the lead authors of the study, told CNN.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
I'm enormously interested. Please share the link.
Escaping the Earth is, in my view, the single biggest and most important thing we can do. Not by any means at any cost, and part of why I feel it's important is just to get us out of the way of all the other species here.
When, I think tomorrow (after this post), I get elected PM I'll stick 10% or so of the budget into space.
The above may have an element of getting carried-away-with-oneself.
Hold music must be the most irritating thing known to man. Currently on hold and they've chosen to play a snippet of music (about 20 seconds of a tune) that then abruptly stops, goes silent for a second then restarts. Heard the same snippet of music about 40 times already and who knows how long will be on hold for? Absolutely jarring and irritating.
I'd far rather silence and an intermittent voiceover of "your call is important to us" despite the fact that if the call was truly important to them then they'd answer the phone.
First time in ages I have been on hold today.. to the water company as our bill came and apparently the two of us and a toddler are using 160% of the water that a household of five usually do. £352, fuck me!
Leak somewhere (possibly after the meter, but before the house). Do you have records of the usage over the last few years?
Cheers, we have only lived here 16 months. Oct-April was an estimate and just the average for a 3 person house. We did a check by reading the meter, not using the water for 2 hours then re reading and it hadn't moved, so maybe we just use too much water!
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
There's supposedly plans for that within the next decade aren't there? Though I'll file that in expectations along with commercial nuclear fusion - it is the future and always will be.
A solution for dealing with the radiation on the moon seems as much an issue as the existence of water for long-term habitation.
Allegedly Nasa will be on the Moon in October 2024, though none of the vehicles needed have yet been flown / built. I know that the Apollo programme flew along in 1968/9 but that was spending a £fuckton of money and national focus. Not sure this quite has the same impetus...
Precisely. I don't think there's the slightest chance that the Artemis programme will operate remotely like the Apollo one did.
But there seems to be a tradition that every President announces that America will return to the moon within a decade or so - that then constantly resets and is then rehashed by the next President a decade later.
According to the timeline announced by George W. Bush for instance the return to the moon by NASA should have already happened.
Speaking to my American Never Trump GOPer friend, he's convinced that if the likes of Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina go to the Dems then Trump's going to scream electoral fraud and be even harder to shift out of the Oval Office.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
That's a rubbish idea. Not saying that it should remain in the hands of Dido and Serco, but the NHS has been pretty rubbish at getting testing numbers up and it would be a waste of valuable medical resources. Better to let local authorities take it over and make them responsible for getting swabs taken and contacts traced.
Excellent news, especially if it's safer among the older population.
Indeed. Hooray for boffins. Going from a virus not existing to (touch wood) a working vaccine in about a year is brilliant if you stop and think about it. I wonder how far back in history you'd have to go for that to be a pipe dream?
We sometimes miss the under-the-radar things that science quietly delivers that make life better and cleaner. LED lights, which got mentioned this morning, are another.
10 years ago despite a big marketing push from apple not many people had smartphones. They were popular with under 40 professionals with a high enough income to afford it. Now a very high proportion of adults have a smartphone, and I would guess the proportion of smartphone users is as high as the proportion of mobile phone users was in 2010. Just on example where STEM has had a huge impact on our lives.
I've noticed that a lot of the contemporary genre novels I've read recently have been set in the 90s or earlier to get around ubiquitous cell-phone usage derailing the plot where the protagonists get into trouble somewhere.
Well known author S.K.Tremayne sets his novel "The Ice Twins" on a remote Scottish island to achieve the same effect.
Same effect could have been achieved in parts of North Dorset... or along most of the Waterloo to Exeter train line west of Basingstoke.
Or here. In the shadow of the hill, you can't get a Vodaphone signal at all, and when there's high pressure our car radios on FM jump to French stations.
Once, in the earlyish days of mass mobile phone adoption, somewhere on the south coast, near Dover (forget where exactly, but big cliff behind me) ran up a fair roaming bill making a single call unwittingly via a phone mast across the channel. Mobile company, to their credit, coughed up when I queried it.
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
A self-made man, who just happened to marry an heiress.
Pretty silly ad IMO, as well as premature. I don't think people will care who Sunak used to work for or how much money he has. They'll judge him on how the economy looks in a year's time. If it's a mess and his policies appear to have contributed, that might be a time to say "He might have been a good City trader, but he's rubbish at the current job."
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
I think the tweet was from 2016. Still crass, and taking the electorate for granted.
It is worrying when Biden makes this kind of gaffe, I doubt it will make any difference this late on, but you have to feel a bit for Americans with the choice in front of them. You can see why Biden's team are keeping him largely tucked away in the run in
A self-made man, who just happened to marry an heiress.
Pretty silly ad IMO, as well as premature. I don't think people will care who Sunak used to work for or how much money he has. They'll judge him on how the economy looks in a year's time. If it's a mess and his policies appear to have contributed, that might be a time to say "He might have been a good City trader, but he's rubbish at the current job."
I'm also not sure that highlighting that he had a pretty successful career in the City is a good idea either, it shows that he has real world experience to be chancellor and understands the world of finance.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
The last thing you want is successful people running the country.
If Labour get in they'll soon put a stop to that.
Well he made his money the old fashioned way: He married the daughter of a billionaire. Even three years at the vampire squid and another 3 at the "aggresive" Hedge fund TCI would not earn him that kind of money.
A PB was asking yesterday what we thought of 'Roadkill'.
Here's Simon Heffer's view:
"One doesn’t need to be steeped in the realities of British politics (and I have written about them for 35 years) to discern on the briefest acquaintance that this series is one of the greatest turkeys even in the recent inglorious history of the BBC’s drama department."
(telegraph)
And Hugh Laurie did not even need the paycheque, after House he was the highest paid TV actor in the world.
Watched the first episode but watched Rebecca on Netflix instead rather than the second episode, may watch on iplayer if really bored
Quite a lot of poor lighting. And the Whitehall scenes are strange. One thing I noted was that at the PM's SPAD, in bed with her boyfriend just after 'lovemaking' still had quite a substantial bra on. It's a long long time since I had practical experience of pre-marital experiences such as that, but IIRC, normally the bra got in the way of foreplay.
I hear the younger generation are somewhat prudish and/or far too busy for foreplay
Maybe contractual? Like the post-sex scenes where bedsheets are clasped to the chest even when sitting up in bed. Never understood why they don't just change the camera angle or have the scene after the person has popped a dressing gown on.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
You lot still banging on about 'chaos'.
Far more likely is that by this time next year people will be wondering what all the fuss was about.
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
That's a rubbish idea. Not saying that it should remain in the hands of Dido and Serco, but the NHS has been pretty rubbish at getting testing numbers up and it would be a waste of valuable medical resources. Better to let local authorities take it over and make them responsible for getting swabs taken and contacts traced.
Independent SAGE - wasn't that a collection of political moon howlers, IIRC?
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
I think the tweet was from 2016. Still crass, and taking the electorate for granted.
Nah, it's an American thing, every Presidential campaign I've followed (and even before then) the main candidates who aren't President always get introduced as 'The Next President' by their side/themselves.
On Sunak, I'm also not sure that it's fair to criticise him for working at the fund that pointed out the RBS/ABN deal was shit on stick. If anything had the politicians listened RBS may not have emptied out its cash reserved on buying a negative value bank.
Nevada is proving rather enigmatic at this election. According to the Economist's latest projections, Trump is more likely to win it than Michigan and Wisconsin, and equally as likely as Pennsylvania.
Speaking to my American Never Trump GOPer friend, he's convinced that if the likes of Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina go to the Dems then Trump's going to scream electoral fraud and be even harder to shift out of the Oval Office.
Yeah, but in that situation, who else within the apparatus of government is going to help him stay? He'd really be relying on the militias, and I can't see that ending well for either Trump or the militias.
That was +27 for the GOP candidate in the Congressional race in 2016 and +10 in 2018.
It is in the Dallas suburbs (not classic white working class Trump territory) and I would expect Trump to now win Texas by less than 5% having won it by 9% in 2016 which was itself smaller than the 16% Romney won Texas by in 2012.
Texas does not much like Trump in contrast to the rustbelt, however he will still likely scrape home in the Lone Star State because of the partisan GOP vote there
The partisan GOP vote that this poll suggests has very quickly evaporated?
Indeed but Trump still has a 3% average lead in Texas overall, that would be the smallest lead for the GOP candidate in Texas since 1992 but Trump would still win it nonetheless
This year Trump's vote looks remarkably efficient, he will be trounced in New York and California, will scrape home in Texas and is neck and neck in Florida and those are the 4 most populous states in the US by far, however he is also still competitive in the rustbelt swing states as well.
It is therefore possible he could lose the national popular vote by 3-4% and still scrape home in the EC
OTOH if he narrowly loses Texas and Florida the EC bias is gone and possibly flips the other way.
No that's not right.
If the Democrats win Texas and Florida while losing the popular vote (or neutral on PV) then the EC bias is gone and possibly flips the other way.
If the Democrats only narrowly take those because they're winning the popular vote by 8% then the EC bias is still there.
The issue for the Republicans though is that Texas is trending purple and within a decade it could theoretically go to the Democrats on a neutral popular vote.
But then that 8 pt win in the PV would be delivering close to 400 in the EC. So a not quite PV landslide giving an EC landslide. Bias flipped.
Remember that the Reps rack up huge PV margins in all those sparsely populated rural states. In aggregate that's a California and then some.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
Hasn't PHE been singularly crap at raising testing levels?
Yes - to the point they opposed mass testing. It took "Your terms are acceptable" from high up the tree (read politicians) before they got out of the way.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
I'm looking forward to the likes of Farage complaining that this is the wrong type of No Deal, if we do get a No Deal Brexit.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
So conservative party down to 20% post new year or does covid act as cover
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
That's a rubbish idea. Not saying that it should remain in the hands of Dido and Serco, but the NHS has been pretty rubbish at getting testing numbers up and it would be a waste of valuable medical resources. Better to let local authorities take it over and make them responsible for getting swabs taken and contacts traced.
Independent SAGE - wasn't that a collection of political moon howlers, IIRC?
Yes. They shouldn't be allowed to use the "independent Sage" name, it's very misleading. They are nothing like SAGE who, though useless, serve a function - namely policies that will bring the R down.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
A strange use of the word never when your post alone makes it palpably inaccurate. Most times they comment and get any press traction, someone calls them out for not being "independent".
Hold music must be the most irritating thing known to man. Currently on hold and they've chosen to play a snippet of music (about 20 seconds of a tune) that then abruptly stops, goes silent for a second then restarts. Heard the same snippet of music about 40 times already and who knows how long will be on hold for? Absolutely jarring and irritating.
I'd far rather silence and an intermittent voiceover of "your call is important to us" despite the fact that if the call was truly important to them then they'd answer the phone.
The "music" you are hearing as you wait on hold, is deliberately designed to get you & other victims to hang up.
Nevada is proving rather enigmatic at this election. According to the Economist's latest projections, Trump is more likely to win it than Michigan and Wisconsin, and equally as likely as Pennsylvania.
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
I think the tweet was from 2016. Still crass, and taking the electorate for granted.
Nah, it's an American thing, every Presidential campaign I've followed (and even before then) the main candidates who aren't President always get introduced as 'The Next President' by their side/themselves.
For others to introduce you as that, ok, but to do it yourself?
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
I'm enormously interested. Please share the link.
Escaping the Earth is, in my view, the single biggest and most important thing we can do. Not by any means at any cost, and part of why I feel it's important is just to get us out of the way of all the other species here.
When, I think tomorrow (after this post), I get elected PM I'll stick 10% or so of the budget into space.
The above may have an element of getting carried-away-with-oneself.
The last thing you want is successful people running the country. If Labour get in they'll soon put a stop to that.
Well he made his money the old fashioned way: He married the daughter of a billionaire. Even three years at the vampire squid and another 3 at the "aggresive" Hedge fund TCI would not earn him that kind of money.
According to the "Conservative Handbook of Absolute Legends", he was a successful businessman. So successful that he was able to put on a Father Christmas act without bankrupting the country..... Are you all now saying that that was not the case?
I shall never be able to believe young HY again.....
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Excellent news, especially if it's safer among the older population.
Indeed. Hooray for boffins. Going from a virus not existing to (touch wood) a working vaccine in about a year is brilliant if you stop and think about it. I wonder how far back in history you'd have to go for that to be a pipe dream?
We sometimes miss the under-the-radar things that science quietly delivers that make life better and cleaner. LED lights, which got mentioned this morning, are another.
10 years ago despite a big marketing push from apple not many people had smartphones. They were popular with under 40 professionals with a high enough income to afford it. Now a very high proportion of adults have a smartphone, and I would guess the proportion of smartphone users is as high as the proportion of mobile phone users was in 2010. Just on example where STEM has had a huge impact on our lives.
I've noticed that a lot of the contemporary genre novels I've read recently have been set in the 90s or earlier to get around ubiquitous cell-phone usage derailing the plot where the protagonists get into trouble somewhere.
Well known author S.K.Tremayne sets his novel "The Ice Twins" on a remote Scottish island to achieve the same effect.
Same effect could have been achieved in parts of North Dorset... or along most of the Waterloo to Exeter train line west of Basingstoke.
Or here. In the shadow of the hill, you can't get a Vodaphone signal at all, and when there's high pressure our car radios on FM jump to French stations.
Once, in the earlyish days of mass mobile phone adoption, somewhere on the south coast, near Dover (forget where exactly, but big cliff behind me) ran up a fair roaming bill making a single call unwittingly via a phone mast across the channel. Mobile company, to their credit, coughed up when I queried it.
It was a significant problem along various parts of the coast for a long time.
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
Just as well it was four years ago, then. Wasn’t a good time either, mind.
Speaking to my American Never Trump GOPer friend, he's convinced that if the likes of Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina go to the Dems then Trump's going to scream electoral fraud and be even harder to shift out of the Oval Office.
Yeah, but in that situation, who else within the apparatus of government is going to help him stay? He'd really be relying on the militias, and I can't see that ending well for either Trump or the militias.
After the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff went to church with Trump during the protests then refused to testify about it, I do wonder about the military.
That was +27 for the GOP candidate in the Congressional race in 2016 and +10 in 2018.
It is in the Dallas suburbs (not classic white working class Trump territory) and I would expect Trump to now win Texas by less than 5% having won it by 9% in 2016 which was itself smaller than the 16% Romney won Texas by in 2012.
Texas does not much like Trump in contrast to the rustbelt, however he will still likely scrape home in the Lone Star State because of the partisan GOP vote there
The partisan GOP vote that this poll suggests has very quickly evaporated?
Indeed but Trump still has a 3% average lead in Texas overall, that would be the smallest lead for the GOP candidate in Texas since 1992 but Trump would still win it nonetheless
This year Trump's vote looks remarkably efficient, he will be trounced in New York and California, will scrape home in Texas and is neck and neck in Florida and those are the 4 most populous states in the US by far, however he is also still competitive in the rustbelt swing states as well.
It is therefore possible he could lose the national popular vote by 3-4% and still scrape home in the EC
OTOH if he narrowly loses Texas and Florida the EC bias is gone and possibly flips the other way.
True but then he would have lost anyway, it means Trump has a chance of a very narrow win or a landslide loss with likely little in between
Sort of, yes.
Although a clear but not brutal defeat - losing the Rustbelt plus NC and AZ - is a feasible outcome.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
I'm looking forward to the likes of Farage complaining that this is the wrong type of No Deal, if we do get a No Deal Brexit.
That was +27 for the GOP candidate in the Congressional race in 2016 and +10 in 2018.
It is in the Dallas suburbs (not classic white working class Trump territory) and I would expect Trump to now win Texas by less than 5% having won it by 9% in 2016 which was itself smaller than the 16% Romney won Texas by in 2012.
Texas does not much like Trump in contrast to the rustbelt, however he will still likely scrape home in the Lone Star State because of the partisan GOP vote there
The partisan GOP vote that this poll suggests has very quickly evaporated?
Indeed but Trump still has a 3% average lead in Texas overall, that would be the smallest lead for the GOP candidate in Texas since 1992 but Trump would still win it nonetheless
This year Trump's vote looks remarkably efficient, he will be trounced in New York and California, will scrape home in Texas and is neck and neck in Florida and those are the 4 most populous states in the US by far, however he is also still competitive in the rustbelt swing states as well.
It is therefore possible he could lose the national popular vote by 3-4% and still scrape home in the EC
OTOH if he narrowly loses Texas and Florida the EC bias is gone and possibly flips the other way.
No that's not right.
If the Democrats win Texas and Florida while losing the popular vote (or neutral on PV) then the EC bias is gone and possibly flips the other way.
If the Democrats only narrowly take those because they're winning the popular vote by 8% then the EC bias is still there.
The issue for the Republicans though is that Texas is trending purple and within a decade it could theoretically go to the Democrats on a neutral popular vote.
But then that 8 pt win in the PV would be delivering close to 400 in the EC. So a not quite PV landslide giving an EC landslide. Bias flipped.
Remember that the Reps rack up huge PV margins in all those sparsely populated rural states. In aggregate that's a California and then some.
No I don't think you're understanding what the bias means.
Larger leads (and 8% is pretty large) can of course lead to landslides that should not be a shock but the bias represents who wins if there is no lead at all or just a small one. The bias is only flipped if a Democrat can be in the oval office despite the Republicans winning by a small margin the popular vote. If Texas tips before the popular vote does its possible, but we're not there yet.
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
I think the tweet was from 2016. Still crass, and taking the electorate for granted.
Nah, it's an American thing, every Presidential campaign I've followed (and even before then) the main candidates who aren't President always get introduced as 'The Next President' by their side/themselves.
For others to introduce you as that, ok, but to do it yourself?
Want me to post links to every major Presidential candidates saying 'As the next President' or words to that effect?
According to Tesco, the section of store containing the sanitary products was cordoned off because of an earlier break in.
So, at the last count, we are now down to [checks notes] zero stores that were stopping people buying tampons for being non-essential. Good to know that everyone here kept their heads and didn't jump to any conclusions like "sanitary pads have been banned in Wales!!!1!"
On Sunak, I'm also not sure that it's fair to criticise him for working at the fund that pointed out the RBS/ABN deal was shit on stick. If anything had the politicians listened RBS may not have emptied out its cash reserved on buying a negative value bank.
If anything that implies more competence on his part - even by association.
Or are people buying into the "talking the market down" guff? ABN was a turd, all of it's own creation. Though I recall some politicians suggesting it was almost evil of Barclays to say "At that price, no thank you".... And lauding Fred fro stepping in to save the day.....
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
So conservative party down to 20% post new year or does covid act as cover
Covid might have been some sort of political cover if they hadn't also messed that up so badly, in the narrative at least. Even if they hadn't messed it up, electorates don't do gratitude: they forget about the things that have gone well and concentrate on the things which have gone badly.
Well, this is a different picture about Black voting this GE than others are telling. Caveat emptor - CNN and a Dem research company bringing this data and story to you:
"By Tuesday, more than 601,000 Black Americans had voted early in Georgia compared with about 286,240 two weeks before the 2016 election. In Maryland, about 192,775 had voted compared with 18,430. And California had over 303,145 -- up from more than 106,360 two weeks before the election four years ago. That's according to Catalist, a data company that provides analytics to Democrats, academics and progressive advocacy organizations."
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Very left-wing socialist scientists self-selected to criticise the government. Most have an interesting backstory. No neutrality or impartiality at all.
According to Tesco, the section of store containing the sanitary products was cordoned off because of an earlier break in.
So, at the last count, we are now down to [checks notes] zero stores that were stopping people buying tampons for being non-essential. Good to know that everyone here kept their heads and didn't jump to any conclusions like "sanitary pads have been banned in Wales!!!1!"
Didn't look cordoned off with police tape, or particularly disturbed either.
That was +27 for the GOP candidate in the Congressional race in 2016 and +10 in 2018.
It is in the Dallas suburbs (not classic white working class Trump territory) and I would expect Trump to now win Texas by less than 5% having won it by 9% in 2016 which was itself smaller than the 16% Romney won Texas by in 2012.
Texas does not much like Trump in contrast to the rustbelt, however he will still likely scrape home in the Lone Star State because of the partisan GOP vote there
The partisan GOP vote that this poll suggests has very quickly evaporated?
Indeed but Trump still has a 3% average lead in Texas overall, that would be the smallest lead for the GOP candidate in Texas since 1992 but Trump would still win it nonetheless
This year Trump's vote looks remarkably efficient, he will be trounced in New York and California, will scrape home in Texas and is neck and neck in Florida and those are the 4 most populous states in the US by far, however he is also still competitive in the rustbelt swing states as well.
It is therefore possible he could lose the national popular vote by 3-4% and still scrape home in the EC
OTOH if he narrowly loses Texas and Florida the EC bias is gone and possibly flips the other way.
Am I the only one who wants Trump to win the popular vote and lose the EC? On second thoughts, I might die laughing if that happened.
It does have appeal. Akin to the football adage - there's no better way to beat your bitterest rivals than with a last minute winning goal that should have been disallowed and having being outplayed for 90 minutes.
But I'm going to say No. I prefer the 'Big Biden'. Florida AND Texas to go.
Hold music must be the most irritating thing known to man. Currently on hold and they've chosen to play a snippet of music (about 20 seconds of a tune) that then abruptly stops, goes silent for a second then restarts. Heard the same snippet of music about 40 times already and who knows how long will be on hold for? Absolutely jarring and irritating.
I'd far rather silence and an intermittent voiceover of "your call is important to us" despite the fact that if the call was truly important to them then they'd answer the phone.
The "music" you are hearing as you wait on hold, is deliberately designed to get you & other victims to hang up.
One company I worked for, the hold music in the conference system was configurable. I figured out how to upload mp3.
Senior management, somewhat by accident, discovered System Of A Down....
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
So a failing private sector effort can be taken over by an almost certain to fail public sector organisation? Sage (made up of a lot of public sector and academia types) seems to have forgotten "The Spreadsheet"! The public sector rarely does this stuff well.
The problem can clearly be seen at the top. Dido Harding, a crony of Bozo The Clown, though in the real world someone who is treated with derision by the IT and telecom sector from whence she came for losing TalkTalk £60M and 95000 customers. They need to put a serious person in charge and make sure they get value out of what has already happened and what Deloitte and Serco are contracted to do.
I missed commenting on the previous thread on NC early voting because I was doing my own analysis of the numbers. The result of that analysis is that I agree with Robert: Biden looks very well placed there. Early voting analysis is another area where fingers got burned in 2016 and so signals may be getting missed. It's hard to see a way through there for Trump, and 538's conditional probability of Trump winning the EC if he loses NC is 1%.
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
I'm enormously interested. Please share the link.
Escaping the Earth is, in my view, the single biggest and most important thing we can do. Not by any means at any cost, and part of why I feel it's important is just to get us out of the way of all the other species here.
When, I think tomorrow (after this post), I get elected PM I'll stick 10% or so of the budget into space.
The above may have an element of getting carried-away-with-oneself.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Very left-wing socialist scientists self-selected to criticise the government. Most have an interesting backstory. No neutrality or impartiality at all.
From a quick look, the only one I've heard of is David King. Given this is kind of my field I would have expected to have heard of a few more... I know of many of those on (real) SAGE.
Still, if Labour are running with real SAGE advice, what does that make Ind SAGE? A front for the Socialist Worker Party?
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Bizarre group of political loonies pushing various agendas - next to no actual science involved.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Bizarre group of political loonies pushing various agendas - next to no actual science involved.
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
There's supposedly plans for that within the next decade aren't there? Though I'll file that in expectations along with commercial nuclear fusion - it is the future and always will be.
A solution for dealing with the radiation on the moon seems as much an issue as the existence of water for long-term habitation.
- Cover with regolith - In a lava tube underground - In a crater of perpetual darkness near the Pole
Hold music must be the most irritating thing known to man. Currently on hold and they've chosen to play a snippet of music (about 20 seconds of a tune) that then abruptly stops, goes silent for a second then restarts. Heard the same snippet of music about 40 times already and who knows how long will be on hold for? Absolutely jarring and irritating.
I'd far rather silence and an intermittent voiceover of "your call is important to us" despite the fact that if the call was truly important to them then they'd answer the phone.
The "music" you are hearing as you wait on hold, is deliberately designed to get you & other victims to hang up.
One company I worked for, the hold music in the conference system was configurable. I figured out how to upload mp3.
Senior management, somewhat by accident, discovered System Of A Down....
An appropriate choice might be "Chop Suey" for how I feel after 20 mins holding on a phone.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Very left-wing socialist scientists self-selected to criticise the government. Most have an interesting backstory. No neutrality or impartiality at all.
From a quick look, the only one I've heard of is David King. Given this is kind of my field I would have expected to have heard of a few more... I know of many of those on (real) SAGE.
Remarkable that a group of "scientists" self-selected that follow a political agenda don't include plausible scientists.
Marshall is a lightweight recruited by RNC to keep the REAL wingnut (who's nomination for Gov last election elected a Democrat) from being the GOP US Senate nominee this year.
BUT like I said, he's a lightweight. And Bollier (an ex-Republican) his running one heck of a race.
Plus there is the anti-Trump factor, which (as HYUFD among others has pointed out) is definitely a thing in many Red states this year.
BUT the real X-factor that just might tip this race toward the Democrat in the Sunflower State) could be hard-core Trumpkyites who will vote for their hero but who may (and many indeed will) either skip the Senate race or actually vote for the Democrat - out of spite.
Same as what MIGHT just happen to Little Lindsey in the Palmetto State.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
I'm looking forward to the likes of Farage complaining that this is the wrong type of No Deal, if we do get a No Deal Brexit.
Absolutely, he's all set to do that.
And actually, he'd have a point. (For the second time ever. What is happening to the world?)
If the government really wanted to make No Deal work, or even make it a convincing bluff, or even make a Canada deal work, they needed to be massively further on with working systems than they are. All the boring bureaucratic stuff that la Thatch (blessed be her memory) developed the Single Market to get rid of.
Unless I've missed all the form fillers already beavering away, and the form checkers installed in their booths at the ports, champing at the bit to start in about two months time.
Speaking to my American Never Trump GOPer friend, he's convinced that if the likes of Texas, Georgia, and South Carolina go to the Dems then Trump's going to scream electoral fraud and be even harder to shift out of the Oval Office.
He will be frogmarched out by men in balaclavas. Can't wait.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Bizarre group of political loonies pushing various agendas - next to no actual science involved.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Bizarre group of political loonies pushing various agendas - next to no actual science involved.
Never mind the Government - what about Alt SAGE?
They make Piers Morgan PhD, FRS, DipSHit look like an objective scientist
That was +27 for the GOP candidate in the Congressional race in 2016 and +10 in 2018.
It is in the Dallas suburbs (not classic white working class Trump territory) and I would expect Trump to now win Texas by less than 5% having won it by 9% in 2016 which was itself smaller than the 16% Romney won Texas by in 2012.
Texas does not much like Trump in contrast to the rustbelt, however he will still likely scrape home in the Lone Star State because of the partisan GOP vote there
The partisan GOP vote that this poll suggests has very quickly evaporated?
Indeed but Trump still has a 3% average lead in Texas overall, that would be the smallest lead for the GOP candidate in Texas since 1992 but Trump would still win it nonetheless
This year Trump's vote looks remarkably efficient, he will be trounced in New York and California, will scrape home in Texas and is neck and neck in Florida and those are the 4 most populous states in the US by far, however he is also still competitive in the rustbelt swing states as well.
It is therefore possible he could lose the national popular vote by 3-4% and still scrape home in the EC
OTOH if he narrowly loses Texas and Florida the EC bias is gone and possibly flips the other way.
Am I the only one who wants Trump to win the popular vote and lose the EC? On second thoughts, I might die laughing if that happened.
He'd need a positive swing in California and New York, which isn't impossible.
Nevada is proving rather enigmatic at this election. According to the Economist's latest projections, Trump is more likely to win it than Michigan and Wisconsin, and equally as likely as Pennsylvania.
The Republicans were going to win the Nevada senate in 2018 and the state in 2016 and Reid was going to lose in 2010
Nevada is hard to poll.
Early voting data from Nevada is harder to interpret this year because they sent postal voting ballot papers to every voter, which has thrown comparisons with 2016 up in the air.
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
I'm enormously interested. Please share the link.
Escaping the Earth is, in my view, the single biggest and most important thing we can do. Not by any means at any cost, and part of why I feel it's important is just to get us out of the way of all the other species here.
When, I think tomorrow (after this post), I get elected PM I'll stick 10% or so of the budget into space.
The above may have an element of getting carried-away-with-oneself.
London and the economy in general is completely screwed.
How much do people think insolvencies have increased this year? 15%? 50%? 100%? more?
Actually incredibly, they are down 43% August 2020 compared to August 2019!
Parts of the economy are clearly heavily impacted and need government support, which they are getting, but it is very far from true that the economy in general is completely screwed.
And actually, he'd have a point. (For the second time ever. What is happening to the world?)
If the government really wanted to make No Deal work, or even make it a convincing bluff, or even make a Canada deal work, they needed to be massively further on with working systems than they are. All the boring bureaucratic stuff that la Thatch (blessed be her memory) developed the Single Market to get rid of.
Unless I've missed all the form fillers already beavering away, and the form checkers installed in their booths at the ports, champing at the bit to start in about two months time.
Yes, that's true. If we really wanted to end up in WTO terms, without even the limited agreements Australia has, we could have organised for that and negotiated with the EU on that basis to get an orderly transition to WTO terms, with at least a year's notice. As it is, we're either going to get the very worst of all possible worlds, which is a highly disorderly and acrimonious crash-out with just a few weeks' notice in the middle of a hugely disrupting pandemic, or at best a less acrimonious but still quite disorderly lurch into a very thin trade deal.
Leading scientists have called for an urgent change in control of the UK’s struggling test and trace system warning it will fail to prevent a third wave of infection unless it is taken over by the NHS.
Independent Sage, a group of scientists set up to scrutinise the government’s coronavirus response, said the £12bn system should be removed from the control of Dido Harding and the private companies Deloitte and Serco. They want laboratories to be taken over by the NHS and tracing to be run by local directors of public health with the money currently going into private contracts redirected.
"Independent SAGE" are never called out for the front group they are.
(Genuine question) What front group are they? I haven't paid them any attention, so I really have no idea, if they're pushing a particular agenda/fronting a particular group, what it is.
Very left-wing socialist scientists self-selected to criticise the government. Most have an interesting backstory. No neutrality or impartiality at all.
From a quick look, the only one I've heard of is David King. Given this is kind of my field I would have expected to have heard of a few more... I know of many of those on (real) SAGE.
Still, if Labour are running with real SAGE advice, what does that make Ind SAGE? A front for the Socialist Worker Party?
Kames Khunti is prof of diabetes here in Leicester, and co author of the NSF in Diabetes. Lots of interesting publications.
A sound bloke, and though I have never discussed politics with him doesn't seem to be a raving lefties.
If anyone is interested Nasa have found water on the Moon. Which once again makes science fiction merely science fact that hasn't happened yet. Want a moon base to refuel deep space missions from? Build it next to the water ice.
There's supposedly plans for that within the next decade aren't there? Though I'll file that in expectations along with commercial nuclear fusion - it is the future and always will be.
A solution for dealing with the radiation on the moon seems as much an issue as the existence of water for long-term habitation.
Allegedly Nasa will be on the Moon in October 2024, though none of the vehicles needed have yet been flown / built. I know that the Apollo programme flew along in 1968/9 but that was spending a £fuckton of money and national focus. Not sure this quite has the same impetus...
Sorry to hear this, hope Mr. Lewis makes a full recovery.
Speaking the Irish within me, reckon that the electoral implications of this are likely a wash. While he may get some sympathy votes, on the other end he may also lose votes if folks think he might NOT be physically up to the job.
Hold music must be the most irritating thing known to man. Currently on hold and they've chosen to play a snippet of music (about 20 seconds of a tune) that then abruptly stops, goes silent for a second then restarts. Heard the same snippet of music about 40 times already and who knows how long will be on hold for? Absolutely jarring and irritating.
I'd far rather silence and an intermittent voiceover of "your call is important to us" despite the fact that if the call was truly important to them then they'd answer the phone.
The "music" you are hearing as you wait on hold, is deliberately designed to get you & other victims to hang up.
One company I worked for, the hold music in the conference system was configurable. I figured out how to upload mp3.
Senior management, somewhat by accident, discovered System Of A Down....
An appropriate choice might be "Chop Suey" for how I feel after 20 mins holding on a phone.
I actually used the Prison Song.
I was entertained that my daughters, who like to be "with" all the trends, were upset to find I was 20 years ahead of them on social justice in the American penal/police system.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
So conservative party down to 20% post new year or does covid act as cover
Covid might have been some sort of political cover if they hadn't also messed that up so badly, in the narrative at least. Even if they hadn't messed it up, electorates don't do gratitude: they forget about the things that have gone well and concentrate on the things which have gone badly.
What do you think of the NZ general election? Was that gratitude for success on Covid, or simply the rally round the flag effect not being dissipated by incompetence?
On the face of it looks like a rare example of gratitude from the electorate. A possible lesson for other politicians.
In hindsight Brexit right 38% (-1); wrong 50% (+2).
F'work 21-22.10 (ch since 6-7.10). Record lead of 'wrong' over 'right'.
Bit late now though.
I really do not understand why anyone thinks this is relevant now
It's relevant because when the chaos starts in January, you'll find that suddenly a whole bunch of people who voted Leave in 2016 will have forgotten that they did, and will be blaming the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. (A further bunch will remember that they voted Leave, and will also blame the Conservative Party for the chaos rather than themselves. And yet another bunch will remember that they voted Remain, but they already blame the Conservative Party.)
So conservative party down to 20% post new year or does covid act as cover
Covid might have been some sort of political cover if they hadn't also messed that up so badly, in the narrative at least. Even if they hadn't messed it up, electorates don't do gratitude: they forget about the things that have gone well and concentrate on the things which have gone badly.
They might, however, notice the things that the government gets lucky on. I suspect that if the Oxford vaccine is successfully rolled out before the end of the year (let us hope so), it will not be the Oxford and Astra Zeneca scientists that get the credit, but the government. There will be loads of cringeworthy nationalistic comments from Bozo and he will claim everything that they have done to date was with this outcome in mind and that it was all down to his great leadership. It will be horrible, but for a successful vaccine I will live with it!!
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
I think the tweet was from 2016. Still crass, and taking the electorate for granted.
I don't think it was crass or taking the electorate for granted.
When you're running for President and on the home stretch you say "We're gonna do it!". You try to energize and project confidence. Everyone does this and you mix it with warnings about complacency. Which she also did. Totally bog standard candidate messaging.
Your post - and the comments from others in the same vein - illustrate the double standards that are applied by so many to Hillary Clinton.
It had something to do with her being a woman. That's not the whole answer but it explains most of it.
Was this really a good time for Hillary Clinton to say she was "born to be president"? Not sure it's helpful as far as the Democrat/Biden campaign is concerned.
I think the tweet was from 2016. Still crass, and taking the electorate for granted.
I don't think it was crass or taking the electorate for granted.
When you're running for President and on the home stretch you say "We're gonna do it!". You try to energize and project confidence. Everyone does this and you mix it with warnings about complacency. Which she also did. Totally bog standard candidate messaging.
Your post - and the comments from others in the same vein - illustrate the double standards that are applied by so many to Hillary Clinton.
It had something to do with her being a woman. That's not the whole answer but it explains most of it.
I'd have exactly the same reaction to any candidate who appeared to take their victory for granted.
Comments
Experts from the V-Dem Institute at the University of Gothenburg in Sweden said the US Republican Party had become more illiberal and populist in recent decades and that its recent retreat from democratic norms has left it resembling authoritarian ruling parties like Hungary's Fidesz and Turkey's AKP.
"What we see is that the disrespect of political opponents, the encouragement of violence and also the violation of minority rights ... they have all clearly increased with the Republican Party in recent years, since [President Donald Trump] came in the leadership but also before that," Anna Luehrmann, V-Dem's deputy director and one of the lead authors of the study, told CNN.
Escaping the Earth is, in my view, the single biggest and most important thing we can do. Not by any means at any cost, and part of why I feel it's important is just to get us out of the way of all the other species here.
When, I think tomorrow (after this post), I get elected PM I'll stick 10% or so of the budget into space.
The above may have an element of getting carried-away-with-oneself.
EDIT: Sorry, already covered, I see.
Just trying to chase down some 1st hand account.
Because that is fucking nuts.
But there seems to be a tradition that every President announces that America will return to the moon within a decade or so - that then constantly resets and is then rehashed by the next President a decade later.
According to the timeline announced by George W. Bush for instance the return to the moon by NASA should have already happened.
Maybe contractual? Like the post-sex scenes where bedsheets are clasped to the chest even when sitting up in bed. Never understood why they don't just change the camera angle or have the scene after the person has popped a dressing gown on.
Far more likely is that by this time next year people will be wondering what all the fuss was about.
What the F is going on in Kansas?
https://projects.economist.com/us-2020-forecast/president
While a 68 ECV share for Trump would certainly make for some very interesting spread betting payouts.
Remember that the Reps rack up huge PV margins in all those sparsely populated rural states. In aggregate that's a California and then some.
Nevada is hard to poll.
I shall never be able to believe young HY again.....
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/06/05/politics/esper-milley-refuse-to-testify-house-armed-services-committee/index.html
Although a clear but not brutal defeat - losing the Rustbelt plus NC and AZ - is a feasible outcome.
Larger leads (and 8% is pretty large) can of course lead to landslides that should not be a shock but the bias represents who wins if there is no lead at all or just a small one. The bias is only flipped if a Democrat can be in the oval office despite the Republicans winning by a small margin the popular vote. If Texas tips before the popular vote does its possible, but we're not there yet.
According to Tesco, the section of store containing the sanitary products was cordoned off because of an earlier break in.
So, at the last count, we are now down to [checks notes] zero stores that were stopping people buying tampons for being non-essential. Good to know that everyone here kept their heads and didn't jump to any conclusions like "sanitary pads have been banned in Wales!!!1!"
Or are people buying into the "talking the market down" guff? ABN was a turd, all of it's own creation. Though I recall some politicians suggesting it was almost evil of Barclays to say "At that price, no thank you".... And lauding Fred fro stepping in to save the day.....
"By Tuesday, more than 601,000 Black Americans had voted early in Georgia compared with about 286,240 two weeks before the 2016 election. In Maryland, about 192,775 had voted compared with 18,430. And California had over 303,145 -- up from more than 106,360 two weeks before the election four years ago. That's according to Catalist, a data company that provides analytics to Democrats, academics and progressive advocacy organizations."
https://www.cnn.com/2020/10/26/politics/black-voter-turnout-election-trnd/index.html
PS Maryland starts early in person voting today, so those numbers, if accurate, relate purely to mail-in ballots.
But I'm going to say No. I prefer the 'Big Biden'. Florida AND Texas to go.
Senior management, somewhat by accident, discovered System Of A Down....
The problem can clearly be seen at the top. Dido Harding, a crony of Bozo The Clown, though in the real world someone who is treated with derision by the IT and telecom sector from whence she came for losing TalkTalk £60M and 95000 customers. They need to put a serious person in charge and make sure they get value out of what has already happened and what Deloitte and Serco are contracted to do.
That slightly reduces my excitement.
I'll eat my hat if there's not a substantial amount of water on the moon somewhere. Given it's made of cheese.
Still, if Labour are running with real SAGE advice, what does that make Ind SAGE? A front for the Socialist Worker Party?
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Dd2-VY6roL0&feature=emb_logo
London and the economy in general is completely screwed.
- In a lava tube underground
- In a crater of perpetual darkness near the Pole
BUT like I said, he's a lightweight. And Bollier (an ex-Republican) his running one heck of a race.
Plus there is the anti-Trump factor, which (as HYUFD among others has pointed out) is definitely a thing in many Red states this year.
BUT the real X-factor that just might tip this race toward the Democrat in the Sunflower State) could be hard-core Trumpkyites who will vote for their hero but who may (and many indeed will) either skip the Senate race or actually vote for the Democrat - out of spite.
Same as what MIGHT just happen to Little Lindsey in the Palmetto State.
I hope there's no dodgy shenanigans, but it seems legit so far.
If the government really wanted to make No Deal work, or even make it a convincing bluff, or even make a Canada deal work, they needed to be massively further on with working systems than they are. All the boring bureaucratic stuff that la Thatch (blessed be her memory) developed the Single Market to get rid of.
Unless I've missed all the form fillers already beavering away, and the form checkers installed in their booths at the ports, champing at the bit to start in about two months time.
Actually incredibly, they are down 43% August 2020 compared to August 2019!
Parts of the economy are clearly heavily impacted and need government support, which they are getting, but it is very far from true that the economy in general is completely screwed.
A sound bloke, and though I have never discussed politics with him doesn't seem to be a raving lefties.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Artemis_program
But much of the hardware will be developed by the private sector, eg:
https://www.spacex.com/updates/nasa-selects-lunar-optimized-starship/
Speaking the Irish within me, reckon that the electoral implications of this are likely a wash. While he may get some sympathy votes, on the other end he may also lose votes if folks think he might NOT be physically up to the job.
7.347m vs 8.563m
I was entertained that my daughters, who like to be "with" all the trends, were upset to find I was 20 years ahead of them on social justice in the American penal/police system.
On the face of it looks like a rare example of gratitude from the electorate. A possible lesson for other politicians.
When you're running for President and on the home stretch you say "We're gonna do it!". You try to energize and project confidence. Everyone does this and you mix it with warnings about complacency. Which she also did. Totally bog standard candidate messaging.
Your post - and the comments from others in the same vein - illustrate the double standards that are applied by so many to Hillary Clinton.
It had something to do with her being a woman. That's not the whole answer but it explains most of it.
Nixon had no inability to connect, electorally he is up there with FDR as one of the most successful candidates of all time.
https://twitter.com/paulwaugh/status/1320772540080529414