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Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave? – politicalbetting.com
Trump acolyte Lindsey Graham to fall victim to the blue wave? – politicalbetting.com
Apart from choosing the president next week there are a whole host of other contests taking place in the US and I’ve been looking at some to see if I can find interesting betting opportunities.
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https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1320693875548344322?s=20
I mean he has zero prior form in trying to pull that trick.
IBD/TIPP
26th October (Today):Biden 51.7% (+0.1%)
Trump 44.7% (+0.3%)
25th October (Yesterday):
Biden 51.6% (+0.9%)
Trump 44.4% (+0.1%)
24th October:
Biden 50.7% (+0.9%)
Trump 44.3% (-0.9%)
23rd October:
Biden 49.8% (-0.2%)
Trump 45.2% (+0.2%)
22nd October:
Biden 50% (+1.5%)
Trump 45% (-1%)
21st October:
Biden 48.5%
Trump 46%
I like this story...
Lou Dobbs goes after Lindsey Graham: 'I don't know why anyone' would vote for him
https://thehill.com/homenews/media/522567-lou-dobbs-goes-after-lindsey-graham-i-dont-know-why-anyone-would-vote-for-him
Fox Business host Lou Dobbs on Friday went after Sen. Lindsey Graham (S.C.), asking why anyone would vote for the Republican lawmaker just weeks before his hotly contested election.
Dobbs lashed out at the Senate Judiciary Committee chairman for “not subpoenaing the left-wing heads of the censorships Twitter and Facebook until after the election.”
“I don’t know why anyone in the great state of South Carolina would ever vote for Lindsey Graham. It’s just outrageous,” Dobbs said. “This is the guy who keeps saying, ‘Stay tuned.’ He said he would get to the bottom of Obamagate with the Judiciary Committee, which has been a year and a half, actually longer, of absolute inert response to these pressing issues of our day.”...
Here's Simon Heffer's view:
"One doesn’t need to be steeped in the realities of British politics (and I have written about them for 35 years) to discern on the briefest acquaintance that this series is one of the greatest turkeys even in the recent inglorious history of the BBC’s drama department."
(telegraph)
https://twitter.com/ianinthornaby/status/1320715142330540033
Watched the first episode but watched Rebecca on Netflix instead rather than the second episode, may watch on iplayer if really bored
algarkirk said:
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If we have a poverty problem with people on 30k then where I live (factories and rural) we are all dying in the gutter.
Exactly total bollox and anyone getting equivalent of 30K on benefits is an absolute scandal. Maximum should be the living wage and they should pay tax and NI on it like all workers. Though I suspect for anywhere outside M25 that 1000 housing is fantasy. In Scotland 2 bedroom allowance is circa £400 ish, if single person £350 max.
I think the Republicans have bounced back a little both nationally and at the state level in the last few days (in the funding stakes), but given a third of the electorate has already voted, it's a bit late.
https://docs.cdn.yougov.com/use3qqelyz/TheTimes_VI_Tracker_201022_W.pdf
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1320430656481120256
https://twitter.com/VirusesImmunity/status/1320430665154859015
Indeed, we are there.
https://abcnews.go.com/Health/live-updates/coronavirus/?id=73829562
The one year effectiveness is good news - a program to vaccinate the population once a year is a manageable problem.
A question for the medical experts. Can the antibody test be used to check for effectiveness of the vaccine. i.e. take the vaccine - some time later do an antibody test.
Will that accurately tell you whether you are immune to COVID (from the vaccine or prior infection) or not?
The idea is that if the vaccine is less than 100% effective (virtually certain) we can at least find out who is protected and who isn't, after they take it.
https://twitter.com/DanielJHannan/status/1320449587434397698
I think if he is going to be defeated, it would need a larger than usual Black turnout to do so. There are few signs anywhere in the US that the Black vote is seeing a big upswing vs 2016
“ face masks do not provide protection from respiratory viruses such as Covid-19 and do not need to be worn by staff”
“it remains very unlikely that people receiving care in a care home or the community will be infected“
If you want some slightly OTT, but enjoyable political conspiracy series, and can tolerate subtitles, the Korean series Chief of Staff is quite fun.
Given that it is a series of conspiracy theories, I don't really see it as having a policy platform per se to adopt.
Because they have a tiny population on a small island in the middle of a gigantic ocean with little fertile farmland, who almost all live on the coast away from glaciers, impenetrable mountains and volcanoes?
Or because they aren't in the EU?
1. tax cuts did not benefit the affluent middle class, but primarily large corporations. Even doctors and lawyers did not benefit.
2. cheaper healthcare. ROTFLMAO
3. better economy: COVID
That's just their best guess.
I enjoyed Roadkill actually; watched all episodes on iplayer. It's a work of fiction with some tenuous real-life parallels, and should be treated as such.
https://www.bag.admin.ch/bag/en/home/krankheiten/ausbrueche-epidemien-pandemien/aktuelle-ausbrueche-epidemien/novel-cov/situation-schweiz-und-international.html
https://twitter.com/AlistairHaimes/status/1303792587661340674
So, for example, my wife who is a physician working in ORs, has her antibody titres tested every once in a while. Atm, her mumps titres are low, so she is scheduling a booster for MMR.
"a fish rots from the head down'
We sometimes miss the under-the-radar things that science quietly delivers that make life better and cleaner. LED lights, which got mentioned this morning, are another.
https://twitter.com/misyrlena/status/1320709001546530816
Unless you believe, back in February/March, that a good number of British holidaymakers were unlucky enough to have close contact with the then handfuls of infected people in Italy, Spain and Austria on their holidays, it is far more likely that there was a superspreader on their plane home.
- Vaccinate
- Come back for an antibody test x days later
Would be a valid approach - to tell people if they are still vulnerable?
tl;dr: NY-11 may be a "surprise" Republican House pick-up next week.
The 11th Congressional District of New York (NY-11 to its friends), is by far the most conservative of the 11 NYS districts wholly or partially in the City of New York. It is made up of Staten Island, by a very long margin the most, and indeed only, Republican-leaning of the five boros, and a fairly small chunk of SW Brooklyn. It was the only NYC district to vote for Trump in 2016, 54-44.
NY-11 has been the only NYC Congressional district to elect a Republican in the last few cycles, but that run came to an end in the 2018 "blue wave" when Democrat Max Rose flipped it 53-47 in one of the bigger surprises of the night.
Right now, pretty much every other political ad on NYC market TV stations is for one side or the other in NY-11, both from the campaigns themselves and supportive PACs, and many of them are vicious. Rose himself is a conservative Democrat and a US Army veteran, but he is being pilloried for giving qualified support to police reform efforts in the wake of the George Floyd killing. His Republican opponent, state rep Nicole Malliotakis is being attacked as a "fraud" for trying to play down her voting record at Albany and other things. My wife grew up in Rhode Island, which has a history of rough-and-tumble political campaigns, and she says she cannot recall seeing ads quite like these before.
What's interesting is that in the last week or so, the tenor the ads placed by the Rose campaign has shifted from attack ads (although there are still plenty running from Democrat-supporting PACs) to Rose simply saying it's been a hell of a year but we came together as a city and made the best of it, etc. etc. The GOP and affiliated-PAC ads have remained relentlessly negative against Rose.
So, will NY-11 flip back to the Republicans? I don't know, but NY-11 is a "naturally" Republican seat. if not overwhelmingly so, as it's rated a modest R+3 (every other NYC House seat is D+1 or more). On a balance of probabilities, one would expect it to go for Trump again this year, and that suggests Malliotakis will ride home on his coat-tails. OTOH the power of incumbency in House elections should never be underestimated.
The conventional wisdom is that the Democrats should easily retain their House majority and may even increase it somewhat, but there are always outliers that buck the trend. NY-11 may well be one.
This wasn't easy for a lot of senior Republicans who'd criticised Trump before November 2016 and needed to row back. But many of them managed a tricky situation by either gradually coming round (and hinting he's met them halfway on some points), or remaining fairly sceptical, or even quitting. Whereas Graham took the electorate for fools and ended up looking like one.
If he is re-elected but Trump loses, it will be interesting to see how Graham plays it. Another volte-face?
https://twitter.com/ddiamond/status/1320722820050157568
Remember also those tweeted-out screengrabs in the spring of the contrast between European airspace, with flights mostly grounded, and US airspace, the sky full of internal flights carrying Americans hither and thither. It’s very likely that’s a large part of the explanation as to why Europe managed to get on top of the first wave when the US did not.
http://huhealthcare.com/healthcare/students/~/media/Files/healthcare/student-health/Titer Explanation.ashx
So yes, this is why the GOP has been pushing the "Max Rose has betrayed the blue" line so strongly.
But also, Staten Island is pretty "suburban" in feel compared to the other boros, and is, I think, the "whitest" boro too. There are similar demographics elsewhere, e.g. the North Bronx, parts of Queens, but it's most concentrated in SI.
One thing I am curious about: Would a flu pandemic have been easier to develop a vaccine against, because we're generally pretty good at targeting individual flu strains?