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If this election follows previous ones then 10m more women will vote than men – politicalbetting.com

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  • Options
    isamisam Posts: 40,929

    There but for the grace of God...
    Do you think if France had half the cases of the UK you’d be digging out Boris for us doing as well as them?
  • Options
    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    Escapism. Real life is too hideous to contemplate
  • Options
    rawzerrawzer Posts: 189
    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    Not entirely fair, good coverage on rocket launching, the korean war, pre-conquest Britain, the Welsh language and Rugeley Trent Valley station as well as touching on the imminent election of the most powerful man on the planet (outside China)
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    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641

    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    MrEd said:


    Thanks for that Stodge. Just a quick question - you mentioned you are suspicious about polls where he who pays the piper calls the tune. I take it then we can ignore polls commissioned by the likes of the Washington Post and New York Times then....?

    I'm sure there are pro-Democrat pollsters though I note both the ABC News/Washington Post and the New York Times/Siena polls are rated A+ by 538 despite the pro-Democrat bias of the former and the pro-Republican bias of the latter.

    The polls about which I'm most sceptical are those commissioned either directly for pro-Trump blogs like the Center for American Greatness or those from little-known polling organisations which just happen to be run by former Republican activists.

    I'm sure if the former commissions a poll they won't be keen to publish one which was bad for Trump and good for Biden and we all know with the right sampling you can get the result for which your client will be looking.
    And where they fail to produce the full content of the polls (including any 'push' questions) and the associated tables showing how the numbers were arrived at.
    Do we know what the SurveyMonkey polls are based on? I see they have a D- rating from 538, and I think of them as a seller of DIY voodoo polls, but their results look reasonably plausible.
    Completely unweighted, but large samples...
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well, the Allies did reach the Yalu River in autumn 1950, but by the end of the year, the Chinese intervened and pushed them south.
    Only because MacArthur was an insubordinate fool.
    In sending them there in the first place.
    My own Daddy Dearest never made it to the Yalu, but close enough - MUCH too close - with USMC and Royal Marines during Chosin Reservoir Campaign.

    Needless to say, though he was there are MacArthur's greatest military achievement - the Inchon Landing - my father was NOT a great admirer of "Dugout Doug".
    One of the most brutal fighting retreats ever, I think - terrifying just to read some of the accounts.

    I don’t understand why China is so boastful, though, bearing in mind how the North turned out compared with the South.
    Yes, the Frozen Chosin was NOT a picnic - not with 1st Maine Division (including some US Army and Royal Marines) being outnumbered 10 to 1. Only thing that saved them was

    a) caution by USMC commanders, who did NOT trust the bilge MacArthur's entourage was pumping out)

    b) fighting prowess of Marines, Americans AND Brits

    c) arctic weather conditions that hit shortly after Chinese launched their offensive, brutal for both sides (more casualties from frostbite than gunshot) but worse for the Chinese who went into battle wearing tennis shoes and cotton padded uniforms.

    As to the wider war, evidence that Mao got snookered into entering by Stalin, thereby diverting China for years AND costing her dearly in blood, treasure and time that could all have been better spent.

    BUT then Peoples Republic DID force a stalemate upon the most powerful nation on Earth AND it's allies, no small achievement.
    Weren't the Chinese human wave attacks with soldiers recently deserted from the Nationalists and rather politically suspect, hence considered expendable?
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405
    rawzer said:

    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    Not entirely fair, good coverage on rocket launching, the korean war, pre-conquest Britain, the Welsh language and Rugeley Trent Valley station as well as touching on the imminent election of the most powerful man on the planet (outside China)
    Not to mention that the election in question is the largest political betting market in terms of money wagered, I believe.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    MrEd said:


    Thanks for that Stodge. Just a quick question - you mentioned you are suspicious about polls where he who pays the piper calls the tune. I take it then we can ignore polls commissioned by the likes of the Washington Post and New York Times then....?

    I'm sure there are pro-Democrat pollsters though I note both the ABC News/Washington Post and the New York Times/Siena polls are rated A+ by 538 despite the pro-Democrat bias of the former and the pro-Republican bias of the latter.

    The polls about which I'm most sceptical are those commissioned either directly for pro-Trump blogs like the Center for American Greatness or those from little-known polling organisations which just happen to be run by former Republican activists.

    I'm sure if the former commissions a poll they won't be keen to publish one which was bad for Trump and good for Biden and we all know with the right sampling you can get the result for which your client will be looking.
    And where they fail to produce the full content of the polls (including any 'push' questions) and the associated tables showing how the numbers were arrived at.
    Do we know what the SurveyMonkey polls are based on? I see they have a D- rating from 538, and I think of them as a seller of DIY voodoo polls, but their results look reasonably plausible.
    Completely unweighted, but large samples...
    Tbh I am contemplating betting based on Survey Monkey nearer the date, following my belief (prejudice?) that regular pollsters fail when trying to correct sampling errors by over-aggressive weighting. Or I might chicken out again.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,611

    kle4 said:

    At least Corbyn never promised space owls.

    https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1319715289328766980?s=20

    Well, all very ambitious, but what's up with 2 of the 4 things being space stuff? But if Trump wants to go I am sure many will be happy for him to try.

    And just 'high' speed internet, not superhigh or megafast?
    The US's manned spaceflight infrastructure (read jobs) is almost entirely based in red states. That includes SpaceX.

    As alluded to above, for GOP-leaners we're largely talking about rural/suburban internet access which can be quite poor in areas. They'll be thankful for any increase. Super-mega-hyperfast is more a deep blue concern.
    Rather large chunks of SpaceX are in California.
    Won't be for long...
    Errrr nope. The East Coast (Florida and Texas) operations are there because it is considered impolite to overfly populated areas with rockets. There is absolutely no chance of them leaving Hawthorne.
    For Musk the future of SpaceX is Starship.

    Where is Starship being developed and launched? Texas.
    Though his politics are likely rather different from (say) Obama, I suspect Musk doesn’t give a crap whether they are red or blue states, or something in between. Which is likely the future for Texas.
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    TimT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bad data from the US (CNN): Thursday was the highest day for new infections since July 24 and the day with the fourth highest total ever, at 71,671, Johns Hopkins says.

    More than 41,000 people were hospitalized across the country, according to the Covid Tracking Project. This is the highest level of nationwide hospitalizations since Aug 20.

    and with thanksgiving looming, analysis suggests family gatherings and house parties are already the principal mode of transmission in most states

    The key burning issue now is how to stop turkeys growing any bigger so that our smaller family Thanksgiving gatherings do not have inappropriately-sized birds.
    We risk a shortage of turkeys at Christmas because the trade depends on European workers, so Britain must relax quarantine requirements (for workers, not turkeys) or retrain a lot of ballerinas.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636563
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    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    Pulpstar said:

    rawzer said:

    kle4 said:

    HYUFD said:
    Yes, Georgia seeming a bit of a stretch.
    Depends which of todays Georgia polls sir fancies today...

    Ga. OCT 12-15, 2020 A/B Opinion Insight* 800 LV Biden 49% 45% Trump Biden+4
    Trump + 4 is perfectly credible, think Warnock is going to get way more than 33% though. Barely any Dems will vote Liebermann
    I'd be staggered if Liebermann breaks 5%
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,968
    edited October 2020
    I know it's off topic and early days, but nice to see the Big Six in err
    4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th and 15th.
    Obviously not enough money is the reason.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993

    kle4 said:

    At least Corbyn never promised space owls.

    https://twitter.com/GOP/status/1319715289328766980?s=20

    Well, all very ambitious, but what's up with 2 of the 4 things being space stuff? But if Trump wants to go I am sure many will be happy for him to try.

    And just 'high' speed internet, not superhigh or megafast?
    The US's manned spaceflight infrastructure (read jobs) is almost entirely based in red states. That includes SpaceX.

    As alluded to above, for GOP-leaners we're largely talking about rural/suburban internet access which can be quite poor in areas. They'll be thankful for any increase. Super-mega-hyperfast is more a deep blue concern.
    Rather large chunks of SpaceX are in California.
    Won't be for long...

    Elon is increasingly fed up with Cali's leadership. Hence why he's moved his new project to Texas.
    I know one of the Tesla designers at Hawthorne, they're pretty aggressively hiring here in California.
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    isam said:

    There but for the grace of God...
    Do you think if France had half the cases of the UK you’d be digging out Boris for us doing as well as them?
    Don't point too much, they may just be a month ahead of us.

    It's being so cheerful wot keeps me going.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    dixiedean said:

    I know it's off topic and early days, but nice to see the Big Six in err
    4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th and 15th.
    Obviously not enough money is the reason.

    How have we got Rodriguez on a free?????
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328

    TimT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bad data from the US (CNN): Thursday was the highest day for new infections since July 24 and the day with the fourth highest total ever, at 71,671, Johns Hopkins says.

    More than 41,000 people were hospitalized across the country, according to the Covid Tracking Project. This is the highest level of nationwide hospitalizations since Aug 20.

    and with thanksgiving looming, analysis suggests family gatherings and house parties are already the principal mode of transmission in most states

    The key burning issue now is how to stop turkeys growing any bigger so that our smaller family Thanksgiving gatherings do not have inappropriately-sized birds.
    We risk a shortage of turkeys at Christmas because the trade depends on European workers, so Britain must relax quarantine requirements (for workers, not turkeys) or retrain a lot of ballerinas.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636563
    My niece is working in the meat packing factory in Cornwall that had the COVID outbreak. Nearly all the workers are E European. They don't seem to have any problems getting workers into the country.
  • Options
    Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 4,812

    Foxy said:

    alex_ said:

    stodge said:

    MrEd said:


    Thanks for that Stodge. Just a quick question - you mentioned you are suspicious about polls where he who pays the piper calls the tune. I take it then we can ignore polls commissioned by the likes of the Washington Post and New York Times then....?

    I'm sure there are pro-Democrat pollsters though I note both the ABC News/Washington Post and the New York Times/Siena polls are rated A+ by 538 despite the pro-Democrat bias of the former and the pro-Republican bias of the latter.

    The polls about which I'm most sceptical are those commissioned either directly for pro-Trump blogs like the Center for American Greatness or those from little-known polling organisations which just happen to be run by former Republican activists.

    I'm sure if the former commissions a poll they won't be keen to publish one which was bad for Trump and good for Biden and we all know with the right sampling you can get the result for which your client will be looking.
    And where they fail to produce the full content of the polls (including any 'push' questions) and the associated tables showing how the numbers were arrived at.
    Do we know what the SurveyMonkey polls are based on? I see they have a D- rating from 538, and I think of them as a seller of DIY voodoo polls, but their results look reasonably plausible.
    Completely unweighted, but large samples...
    Tbh I am contemplating betting based on Survey Monkey nearer the date, following my belief (prejudice?) that regular pollsters fail when trying to correct sampling errors by over-aggressive weighting. Or I might chicken out again.
    I think they are trying to do a serious attempt at this, and I don't think they intend to stay D- for long. I've probably done more Survey Monkey surveys on various corporate & training things over the last 5 years than any other company, and they look to be trying to leverage that scale and platform advantage to go into PB seriously, perhaps as a shop window. This front page gives the management summary of their methodology, I've not gone through any subpages to confirm it is all there.

    https://www.surveymonkey.com/curiosity/surveymonkey-tableau-daily-horserace/
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:

    I know it's off topic and early days, but nice to see the Big Six in err
    4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th and 15th.
    Obviously not enough money is the reason.

    Form is out of the window this season. Bet on the underdog, anything can happen.
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,391
    edited October 2020
    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    glw said:

    MrEd said:

    Wall Street Journal now deciding to get involved in the Hunter Biden story:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-biden-family-legacy-11603409528?mod=djemalertNEWS

    It is almost inevitable that now until polling day there will be daily revelations about what has happened.

    Is that the opinion piece that WSJ journalists have been criticising?
    The story will only have legs in 3 news media outlets - Fox News, the New York Post, and WSJ. The common denominator? Murdoch.
    Not even the WSJ is interested as news. They've dismissed it.
    I thought Murdoch had lost patience with Trump.
    It has been rumoured that Trump might found his own television channel. Whether there is anything new here, because there were similar rumours in 2016, that this was why he stood for election and not to become president or even the Republican candidate (another parallel with Boris), I could not say but a new rival might not impress Murdoch. It was mentioned again on tonight's Andrew Neil-fronted Spectator TV podcast thingy on Youtube.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    TimT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bad data from the US (CNN): Thursday was the highest day for new infections since July 24 and the day with the fourth highest total ever, at 71,671, Johns Hopkins says.

    More than 41,000 people were hospitalized across the country, according to the Covid Tracking Project. This is the highest level of nationwide hospitalizations since Aug 20.

    and with thanksgiving looming, analysis suggests family gatherings and house parties are already the principal mode of transmission in most states

    The key burning issue now is how to stop turkeys growing any bigger so that our smaller family Thanksgiving gatherings do not have inappropriately-sized birds.
    We risk a shortage of turkeys at Christmas because the trade depends on European workers, so Britain must relax quarantine requirements (for workers, not turkeys) or retrain a lot of ballerinas.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636563
    Great. Beef and lamb are far tastier. Would give me an excuse.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    Escapist hobbies take many forms. People make come to PB for many things, but to right the wrongs of the UK probably productively achieved in other places.
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    GOP *loses lawsuit
    https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319764218040627200

    * Well no stay granted, "merits" of case to be heard next week...
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    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,968
    welshowl said:

    dixiedean said:

    I know it's off topic and early days, but nice to see the Big Six in err
    4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th and 15th.
    Obviously not enough money is the reason.

    How have we got Rodriguez on a free?????
    Carlo Fantastico.
  • Options
    ChrisChris Posts: 11,124
    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    (Yawn) Another looney who would prefer hundreds of thousands, rather than tens of thousands, to die.
  • Options
    kle4kle4 Posts: 91,750
    welshowl said:

    TimT said:

    IanB2 said:

    Bad data from the US (CNN): Thursday was the highest day for new infections since July 24 and the day with the fourth highest total ever, at 71,671, Johns Hopkins says.

    More than 41,000 people were hospitalized across the country, according to the Covid Tracking Project. This is the highest level of nationwide hospitalizations since Aug 20.

    and with thanksgiving looming, analysis suggests family gatherings and house parties are already the principal mode of transmission in most states

    The key burning issue now is how to stop turkeys growing any bigger so that our smaller family Thanksgiving gatherings do not have inappropriately-sized birds.
    We risk a shortage of turkeys at Christmas because the trade depends on European workers, so Britain must relax quarantine requirements (for workers, not turkeys) or retrain a lot of ballerinas.
    https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-54636563
    Great. Beef and lamb are far tastier. Would give me an excuse.
    I honestly am not sure if I have ever had Turkey for Christmas. Traditionally we had chicken, pork and beef so people could select their favourites, though now I get to choose I tend to go for lamb whenever I can.
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460
    dixiedean said:

    welshowl said:

    dixiedean said:

    I know it's off topic and early days, but nice to see the Big Six in err
    4th, 6th, 8th, 9th, 11th and 15th.
    Obviously not enough money is the reason.

    How have we got Rodriguez on a free?????
    Carlo Fantastico.
    He really is molto bene😁
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited October 2020
    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    In case you may not have noticed this site is called 'Politicalbetting.com' not 'we hate the Tories.com' which is why Tories like me continue to post here, if you wish to find a site more suited to your preferences there are plenty of alternatives.

    The election next month for the head of the most powerful nation on earth is therefore of some relevance to this site's purpose!
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    No betting on the covid crisis here.
    It's bad for the nation's health and economy with awful choices for the Gov't, and it'll get worse till we get positive news* hopefully on a vaccine. OK ?
  • Options
    FoxyFoxy Posts: 44,641
    Just finished Borat 2. Not quite as funny as the first but not far off that incredibly high standard. Maria Bakalova as Borat's daughter is a superb bit of casting. Several hilarious scenes as well as the rather shocking and now infamous one.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,968
    Pulpstar said:

    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    No betting on the covid crisis here.
    It's bad for the nation's health and economy with awful choices for the Gov't, and it'll get worse till we get positive news* hopefully on a vaccine. OK ?
    Although thinking about it, I've called this pandemic rather better than I usually call politics.
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    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited October 2020
    If France was the same size as the US it would have seen 210k newly registered cases and 1500 new deaths.

    I fear this will be the UK 3-5 weeks from now.
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    houndtanghoundtang Posts: 450
    HYUFD said:

    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    In case you may not have noticed this site is called 'Politicalbetting.com' not 'we hate the Tories.com' which is why Tories like me continue to post here, if you wish to find a site more suited to your preferences there are plenty of alternatives.

    The election next month for the head of the most powerful nation on earth is therefore of some relevance to this site's purpose!
    That's fair enough, enjoy yourselves

    PS I voted Tory, got something beyond my wildest nightmares of a Corbyn government

    bye
  • Options
    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.
  • Options
    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2020
    https://thehill.com/regulation/522496-pennsylvanias-top-court-deals-blow-to-gop-by-tossing-signature-matching-rule

    Now not only will postals after election day count, the signatures don't even have to match. Pennsylvania is clown country.
  • Options
    MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 37,607
    edited October 2020
    The other thing to note about France is that we have a better testing system than they do and we're picking up around 40-50% of cases with symptomatic testing and some contact testing. The true position there could be as high as 120k cases per day, which is in line with the positivity rate of tests.
  • Options

    IshmaelZ said:

    Alistair said:

    TimT said:

    glw said:

    MrEd said:

    Wall Street Journal now deciding to get involved in the Hunter Biden story:

    https://www.wsj.com/articles/the-biden-family-legacy-11603409528?mod=djemalertNEWS

    It is almost inevitable that now until polling day there will be daily revelations about what has happened.

    Is that the opinion piece that WSJ journalists have been criticising?
    The story will only have legs in 3 news media outlets - Fox News, the New York Post, and WSJ. The common denominator? Murdoch.
    Not even the WSJ is interested as news. They've dismissed it.
    I thought Murdoch had lost patience with Trump.
    It has been rumoured that Trump might found his own television channel. Whether there is anything new here, because there were similar rumours in 2016, that this was why he stood for election and not to become president or even the Republican candidate (another parallel with Boris), I could not say but a new rival might not impress Murdoch. It was mentioned again on tonight's Andrew Neil-fronted Spectator TV podcast thingy on Youtube.
    I doubt Murdoch would lose much sleep over prospect of MAGA tv, people like Bill O'Reilly aren't doing very good numbers out on their own...and actually really hard to fill a 24/7 channel on your own, see Oprah.

    Much easier just to sign up Trump to do a show...and much easier for Trump to just accept that, than try have organize a load of shows for the MAGA tv network.
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    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1319670388666830850

    The Sun is trash. We want to be a third-party country with no links to the EU, this is the result. What's to complain about, this is what we voted for
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    https://twitter.com/TheSun/status/1319670388666830850

    The Sun is trash. We want to be a third-party country with no links to the EU, this is the result. What's to complain about, this is what we voted for

    Yes. So wha? Probably in reality 15 mins extra at Malaga airport. Most won’t notice. They will notice the duty free on the way back though.
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    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Yeah like banning me from buying a bloody mop and bucket in Cardiff.

    That’ll teach the virus.
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    MalmesburyMalmesbury Posts: 44,405
    MaxPB said:

    The other thing to note about France is that we have a better testing system than they do and we're picking up around 40-50% of cases with symptomatic testing and some contact testing. The true position there could be as high as 120k cases per day, which is in line with the positivity rate of tests.

    MaxPB said:

    The other thing to note about France is that we have a better testing system than they do and we're picking up around 40-50% of cases with symptomatic testing and some contact testing. The true position there could be as high as 120k cases per day, which is in line with the positivity rate of tests.

    How many countries are running ONS style surveys to find the real situation? - I can't find any for France and Germany.

    Germany I find rather surprising to be missing such an obvious thing.
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    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    Pulpstar said:
    As you'd expect these days, a lot of distasteful comments on Twitter regarding this.
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    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Yeah like banning me from buying a bloody mop and bucket in Cardiff.

    That’ll teach the virus.
    If it gets people staying at home and not spreading it, then it's a necessary sacrifice. A strict lockdown with strict rules is now needed.
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    Andy_JS said:

    Pulpstar said:
    As you'd expect these days, a lot of distasteful comments on Twitter regarding this.
    I presume he is on warfarin and that can mean a small bump leads to the massive bruising.
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    https://thehill.com/regulation/522496-pennsylvanias-top-court-deals-blow-to-gop-by-tossing-signature-matching-rule

    Now not only will postals after election day count, the signatures don't even have to match. Pennsylvania is clown country.

    As they should when the postal service is being deliberately run down by a Trump appointee to slow the arrival of ballots and disenfranchise voters.
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    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited October 2020
    Pulpstar said:
    Well we do have the 2 main party Presidential candidates and a Senate Majority leader over 70 and a Speaker of the House who is 80.

    When the main branches of US government are all headed by those who could be in retirement homes and not one is even of working age for a normal person let alone under 50 sooner or later one of them is going to have some serious health problems unfortunately just via statistical probability
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    "There were 2,703 excess deaths across England and Wales in September, official figures show - but coronavirus was not in the 10 leading causes of fatality."

    https://news.sky.com/story/coronavirus-not-among-10-most-common-causes-of-death-in-september-ons-12111980
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Thing is Mark Drakeford has the power to effectively enact Labour policy here as he wishes on health.

    And as you think it’s so bloody marvellous, please explain to me why I can’t travel more than about 2.5 miles from my home, I can’t go to the pub, I can’t see my friends, even outdoors, and it’s currently illegal in Wales to buy, bed sheets, kettles, tv’s, toasters, cars, garden tools, or even toilet seats?

    It’s like the fucking 1970’s here right now with knobs on. Complete with numpty left wing Labour running the show and trying to state control everything.

    Well just like the 70’s it’s fucking crap, it’s what scarred my youth and why I’ve tried to avoid it ever since.

    Comprende?????
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993

    https://thehill.com/regulation/522496-pennsylvanias-top-court-deals-blow-to-gop-by-tossing-signature-matching-rule

    Now not only will postals after election day count, the signatures don't even have to match. Pennsylvania is clown country.

    The "postals afterwards" still requires the ballot to have been postmarked on or before election day. That doesn't seem unreasonable given how insanely slow (and inconsistent) the US Postal Service is.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Thing is Mark Drakeford has the power to effectively enact Labour policy here as he wishes on health.

    And as you think it’s so bloody marvellous, please explain to me why I can’t travel more than about 2.5 miles from my home, I can’t go to the pub, I can’t see my friends, even outdoors, and it’s currently illegal in Wales to buy, bed sheets, kettles, tv’s, toasters, cars, garden tools, or even toilet seats?

    It’s like the fucking 1970’s here right now with knobs on. Complete with numpty left wing Labour running the show and trying to state control everything.

    Well just like the 70’s it’s fucking crap, it’s what scarred my youth and why I’ve tried to avoid it ever since.

    Comprende?????
    It looks like Corbyn Labour is in power now after all but only in Wales
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,968
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Well we do have the 2 main party Presidential candidates and a Senate Majority leader over 70 and a Speaker of the House who is 80.

    When the main branches of US government are all headed by those who could be in retirement homes and not one is even of working age for a normal person let alone under 50 sooner or later one of them is going to have some serious health problems unfortunately just via statistical probability
    You raise a good point. The USA has become, and will remain whoever wins, a gerontocracy.
    These are people whose political consciences were formed under Civil Rights and Vietnam.
    Many, many voters weren't even born then. Indeed many won't remember the Cold War. Or even 9/11 for some.
    Boomers just won't go away gracefully.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    rcs1000 said:

    https://thehill.com/regulation/522496-pennsylvanias-top-court-deals-blow-to-gop-by-tossing-signature-matching-rule

    Now not only will postals after election day count, the signatures don't even have to match. Pennsylvania is clown country.

    The "postals afterwards" still requires the ballot to have been postmarked on or before election day. That doesn't seem unreasonable given how insanely slow (and inconsistent) the US Postal Service is.
    Everything has to be in in Michigan by election day, Whitmer's trying to push the message not to use the mail there right now.

    Judging by ballot returns the situation in PA definitely seems slower than both WI and MI though.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Yeah like banning me from buying a bloody mop and bucket in Cardiff.

    That’ll teach the virus.
    If it gets people staying at home and not spreading it, then it's a necessary sacrifice. A strict lockdown with strict rules is now needed.
    And best of all for Welsh Labour, they are getting a big donation from a grateful Amazon.
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,968
    edited October 2020
    HYUFD said:

    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Thing is Mark Drakeford has the power to effectively enact Labour policy here as he wishes on health.

    And as you think it’s so bloody marvellous, please explain to me why I can’t travel more than about 2.5 miles from my home, I can’t go to the pub, I can’t see my friends, even outdoors, and it’s currently illegal in Wales to buy, bed sheets, kettles, tv’s, toasters, cars, garden tools, or even toilet seats?

    It’s like the fucking 1970’s here right now with knobs on. Complete with numpty left wing Labour running the show and trying to state control everything.

    Well just like the 70’s it’s fucking crap, it’s what scarred my youth and why I’ve tried to avoid it ever since.

    Comprende?????
    It looks like Corbyn Labour is in power now after all but only in Wales
    Good job no one in England is nationalising all kinds of stuff, paying workers to stand idle, sidelining Parliament, channelling eye watering funds to their cronies, promoting unrepentant IRA fan Marxists to the Lords and has a Leninist adviser.
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    edited October 2020
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Well we do have the 2 main party Presidential candidates and a Senate Majority leader over 70 and a Speaker of the House who is 80.

    When the main branches of US government are all headed by those who could be in retirement homes and not one is even of working age for a normal person let alone under 50 sooner or later one of them is going to have some serious health problems unfortunately just via statistical probability
    You raise a good point. The USA has become, and will remain whoever wins, a gerontocracy.
    These are people whose political consciences were formed under Civil Rights and Vietnam.
    Many, many voters weren't even born then. Indeed many won't remember the Cold War. Or even 9/11 for some.
    Boomers just won't go away gracefully.
    Yes US leaders look more like the waxworks of the Kremlin used to look now than youthful leaders of the past like JFK or Obama or even George W Bush, whoever wins I think at least one party will nominate a more youthful candidate next time, these are the oldest 2 candidates ever and hopefully the congressional leadership will decide to pass the baton on at last
  • Options
    HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 117,005
    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Thing is Mark Drakeford has the power to effectively enact Labour policy here as he wishes on health.

    And as you think it’s so bloody marvellous, please explain to me why I can’t travel more than about 2.5 miles from my home, I can’t go to the pub, I can’t see my friends, even outdoors, and it’s currently illegal in Wales to buy, bed sheets, kettles, tv’s, toasters, cars, garden tools, or even toilet seats?

    It’s like the fucking 1970’s here right now with knobs on. Complete with numpty left wing Labour running the show and trying to state control everything.

    Well just like the 70’s it’s fucking crap, it’s what scarred my youth and why I’ve tried to avoid it ever since.

    Comprende?????
    It looks like Corbyn Labour is in power now after all but only in Wales
    Good job no one in England is nationalising all kinds of stuff, paying workers to stand idle, sidelining Parliament, channelling eye watering funds to their cronies, promoting unrepentant IRA fan Marxists to the Lords and has a Leninist adviser.
    Boris has not shut all business again as Drakeford has and the public sector makes up a larger share of the Welsh economy than the English economy
  • Options
    welshowlwelshowl Posts: 4,460

    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Yeah like banning me from buying a bloody mop and bucket in Cardiff.

    That’ll teach the virus.
    If it gets people staying at home and not spreading it, then it's a necessary sacrifice. A strict lockdown with strict rules is now needed.
    Bollocks. I can buy baked beans in Asda but not a frying pan. That helps not spread it? How?

    But buying on Amazon is fine. Well never moan about online companies again then.

    Hairdressers in Pembroke might go bust because Covid levels are high 100 miles away in Cardiff? Yup great policy, they’ll love you for that in Haverfordwest.

    Face it, all govts are cocking it up, but Wales has found its own way to really cock it up.

    It’s clueless, ideology driven horseshit.

    And I’m living in it. Be grateful you are not.

  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    rcs1000 said:

    https://thehill.com/regulation/522496-pennsylvanias-top-court-deals-blow-to-gop-by-tossing-signature-matching-rule

    Now not only will postals after election day count, the signatures don't even have to match. Pennsylvania is clown country.

    The "postals afterwards" still requires the ballot to have been postmarked on or before election day. That doesn't seem unreasonable given how insanely slow (and inconsistent) the US Postal Service is.
    The main reason my wife is not postal voting but opting for in-person is because she is worried that she can't do two signatures alike enough for the most persnickety of returns officers.
  • Options
    GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 19,079
    Georgia blue again on 538.
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Well we do have the 2 main party Presidential candidates and a Senate Majority leader over 70 and a Speaker of the House who is 80.

    When the main branches of US government are all headed by those who could be in retirement homes and not one is even of working age for a normal person let alone under 50 sooner or later one of them is going to have some serious health problems unfortunately just via statistical probability
    Blood thinners?
  • Options
    dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 27,968
    HYUFD said:

    dixiedean said:

    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Well we do have the 2 main party Presidential candidates and a Senate Majority leader over 70 and a Speaker of the House who is 80.

    When the main branches of US government are all headed by those who could be in retirement homes and not one is even of working age for a normal person let alone under 50 sooner or later one of them is going to have some serious health problems unfortunately just via statistical probability
    You raise a good point. The USA has become, and will remain whoever wins, a gerontocracy.
    These are people whose political consciences were formed under Civil Rights and Vietnam.
    Many, many voters weren't even born then. Indeed many won't remember the Cold War. Or even 9/11 for some.
    Boomers just won't go away gracefully.
    Yes US leaders look more like the waxworks of the Kremlin used to look now than youthful leaders of the past like JFK or Obama or even George W Bush, whoever wins I think at least one party will nominate a more youthful candidate next time, these are the oldest 2 candidates ever and hopefully the congressional leadership will decide to pass the baton on at last
    Just googling out of interest. Major is 77. Kinnock 78. They'd still be the candidates in the US. Both younger than Pelosi, Feinstein and Sanders.
    Similar to Biden and McConnell. Trump is a relative whippersnapper.
    But. Major and Kinnock as candidates for PM in a GE? Seems like a different aeon.
  • Options
    Foxy said:

    Nigelb said:

    Nigelb said:

    Well, the Allies did reach the Yalu River in autumn 1950, but by the end of the year, the Chinese intervened and pushed them south.
    Only because MacArthur was an insubordinate fool.
    In sending them there in the first place.
    My own Daddy Dearest never made it to the Yalu, but close enough - MUCH too close - with USMC and Royal Marines during Chosin Reservoir Campaign.

    Needless to say, though he was there are MacArthur's greatest military achievement - the Inchon Landing - my father was NOT a great admirer of "Dugout Doug".
    One of the most brutal fighting retreats ever, I think - terrifying just to read some of the accounts.

    I don’t understand why China is so boastful, though, bearing in mind how the North turned out compared with the South.
    Yes, the Frozen Chosin was NOT a picnic - not with 1st Maine Division (including some US Army and Royal Marines) being outnumbered 10 to 1. Only thing that saved them was

    a) caution by USMC commanders, who did NOT trust the bilge MacArthur's entourage was pumping out)

    b) fighting prowess of Marines, Americans AND Brits

    c) arctic weather conditions that hit shortly after Chinese launched their offensive, brutal for both sides (more casualties from frostbite than gunshot) but worse for the Chinese who went into battle wearing tennis shoes and cotton padded uniforms.

    As to the wider war, evidence that Mao got snookered into entering by Stalin, thereby diverting China for years AND costing her dearly in blood, treasure and time that could all have been better spent.

    BUT then Peoples Republic DID force a stalemate upon the most powerful nation on Earth AND it's allies, no small achievement.
    Weren't the Chinese human wave attacks with soldiers recently deserted from the Nationalists and rather politically suspect, hence considered expendable?
    Many of the Chinese "volunteers" who entered Korea were indeed former Nationalist soldier, not deserters mainly but POWs who switched, esp after Chang Kai-shek was forced off the mainland. However, it was a VERY large force. Over over 100k in just the eastern part of North Korea versus about 10k US Marines & assorted allied forces.

    As for the human wave attacks, those were also NOT limited to just former Nationalists. This was a tactic that had worked with some success for the Reds in China. It was also compelled to some extent by absence of good guerilla war terrain (esp. ground cover) in Korea AND the Chinese lack of tanks or heavily artillery, both of which the US-UN forces had in abundance.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172

    Drakeford has had a good pandemic .... well, at least compared to Boris & his gang.

    But, even the most loyal Labour supporters must be surprised on hearing him advocating online shopping with Amazon as opposed to Welsh shops and supermarkets (who can't sell goods even online).

    And here is Drakeford explaining to the Welsh what you can't do (verbatim quote)

    "What you shouldn't do is to use the next two weeks to do things that you don't need to do."

    That is a pretty broad definition of what you can't do. Given the only thing you actually **need** to do are breathing, eating, drinking, excreting & defecating, then it is clear that Drakeford envisages a pretty limited life for the Welsh over the next 2 1/2 weeks.

    And, remember, many areas of rural Wales have some of the lowest COVID transmission rates in the whole UK. The nearest COVID death to me is at least 30 miles away.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out ... but I think things are about to change for Drakeford. Some of this is going to be very unpopular.

    And if -- as seems to be the case -- Drakeford has asked the English police to man the border & arrest Welsh people leaving the country, then that is truly dreadful optics.
  • Options
    welshowl said:

    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Yeah like banning me from buying a bloody mop and bucket in Cardiff.

    That’ll teach the virus.
    If it gets people staying at home and not spreading it, then it's a necessary sacrifice. A strict lockdown with strict rules is now needed.
    Bollocks. I can buy baked beans in Asda but not a frying pan. That helps not spread it? How?

    But buying on Amazon is fine. Well never moan about online companies again then.

    Hairdressers in Pembroke might go bust because Covid levels are high 100 miles away in Cardiff? Yup great policy, they’ll love you for that in Haverfordwest.

    Face it, all govts are cocking it up, but Wales has found its own way to really cock it up.

    It’s clueless, ideology driven horseshit.

    And I’m living in it. Be grateful you are not.

    I hope a similar lockdown is introduced in England shortly.
  • Options
    Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    welshowl said:

    France is probably a few weeks ahead, a responsible Government would be putting into actions now so as to prevent the same fate for the UK.

    Thing is Mark Drakeford has the power to effectively enact Labour policy here as he wishes on health.

    And as you think it’s so bloody marvellous, please explain to me why I can’t travel more than about 2.5 miles from my home, I can’t go to the pub, I can’t see my friends, even outdoors, and it’s currently illegal in Wales to buy, bed sheets, kettles, tv’s, toasters, cars, garden tools, or even toilet seats?

    It’s like the fucking 1970’s here right now with knobs on. Complete with numpty left wing Labour running the show and trying to state control everything.

    Well just like the 70’s it’s fucking crap, it’s what scarred my youth and why I’ve tried to avoid it ever since.

    Comprende?????
    You didn't have a toilet seat in the 1970s?
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067


    Drakeford has had a good pandemic .... well, at least compared to Boris & his gang.

    But, even the most loyal Labour supporters must be surprised on hearing him advocating online shopping with Amazon as opposed to Welsh shops and supermarkets (who can't sell goods even online).

    And here is Drakeford explaining to the Welsh what you can't do (verbatim quote)

    "What you shouldn't do is to use the next two weeks to do things that you don't need to do."

    That is a pretty broad definition of what you can't do. Given the only thing you actually **need** to do are breathing, eating, drinking, excreting & defecating, then it is clear that Drakeford envisages a pretty limited life for the Welsh over the next 2 1/2 weeks.

    And, remember, many areas of rural Wales have some of the lowest COVID transmission rates in the whole UK. The nearest COVID death to me is at least 30 miles away.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out ... but I think things are about to change for Drakeford. Some of this is going to be very unpopular.

    And if -- as seems to be the case -- Drakeford has asked the English police to man the border & arrest Welsh people leaving the country, then that is truly dreadful optics.

    Reading is out.

    image
  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636

    Georgia blue again on 538.

    I'm not sure how they decide which way it's going when the percentages are the same for both candidates.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172


    Drakeford has had a good pandemic .... well, at least compared to Boris & his gang.

    But, even the most loyal Labour supporters must be surprised on hearing him advocating online shopping with Amazon as opposed to Welsh shops and supermarkets (who can't sell goods even online).

    And here is Drakeford explaining to the Welsh what you can't do (verbatim quote)

    "What you shouldn't do is to use the next two weeks to do things that you don't need to do."

    That is a pretty broad definition of what you can't do. Given the only thing you actually **need** to do are breathing, eating, drinking, excreting & defecating, then it is clear that Drakeford envisages a pretty limited life for the Welsh over the next 2 1/2 weeks.

    And, remember, many areas of rural Wales have some of the lowest COVID transmission rates in the whole UK. The nearest COVID death to me is at least 30 miles away.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out ... but I think things are about to change for Drakeford. Some of this is going to be very unpopular.

    And if -- as seems to be the case -- Drakeford has asked the English police to man the border & arrest Welsh people leaving the country, then that is truly dreadful optics.

    Reading is out.

    image
    It was a cunning masterstroke of the Welsh Tories to suggest this idea to Drakeford.
  • Options
    Roy_G_BivRoy_G_Biv Posts: 998
    HYUFD said:
    Go on, I'll bite. What's the thrust of the story? The headline looks faintly idiotic, but I've learned not to jump to judgements on that alone.
  • Options
    rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 53,993
    Andy_JS said:

    Georgia blue again on 538.

    I'm not sure how they decide which way it's going when the percentages are the same for both candidates.
    It's quite interesting: if the national picture has changed in the period since the polls in their state level averages, then they assume the state will have changed similarly. It's a neat (albeit not necessarily accurate) way of working out what the state level polls would say if they were more up to date.
  • Options
    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Wales ban on selling books is a bit OTT methinks.
  • Options
    YBarddCwscYBarddCwsc Posts: 7,172
    Pulpstar said:

    Wales ban on selling books is a bit OTT methinks.

    I think the next step of the story writes itself.

    The restrictions are so severe & stupid that it will be only day or two before a Welsh Government Minister is caught inadvertently breaking them.
  • Options
    HYUFD said:
    Lol, QIAinon Duncan Smith, here we come.
  • Options
    williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 48,067
    This is Trump’s version of William Hague’s foreign land speech.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1319798020691628032?s=21
  • Options
    TimTTimT Posts: 6,328
    he sounds like he doesn't believe his own bs

    This is Trump’s version of William Hague’s foreign land speech.

    https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/1319798020691628032?s=21

  • Options
    Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 26,636
    "Covid’s spread could be entirely out of our hands
    From luck to genetics, politicians may have less control over the virus than we like to imagine
    JULIET SAMUEL" (£)

    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/23/covids-spreadcould-entirelyout-hands/
  • Options
    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,391
    edited October 2020
    The cost of disposable face masks is set to rise by a fifth from next week ... after the Treasury decided to scrap the VAT exemption on Personal Protective Equipment (PPE).
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/23/cost-facemasks-rise-treasury-scraps-vat-exemption-ppe/

    ETA the story is by the Crime Correspondent. :smiley:
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    There’s a clue in the name of the site.

  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282

    houndtang said:

    This site is hilarious - right here democracy is dying on its arse; the economy is dying on its arse; jobs, lives and mental health are being destroyed; people are dying alone - their loved ones prevented from being by their sides; the government and their advisers spew out a never-ending stream of insane regulations which will inevitably lead to mass poverty... and this site is analysing the demographics of an opinion poll for an election on the other side of the Atlantic.

    You were expecting maybe dancing girls? Sydney Opera House perhaps? The Hanging Gardens of Babylon? Herds of wildebeest sweeping majestically across the plain...?
    I missed that thread.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    HYUFD said:

    Pulpstar said:
    Well we do have the 2 main party Presidential candidates and a Senate Majority leader over 70 and a Speaker of the House who is 80.

    When the main branches of US government are all headed by those who could be in retirement homes and not one is even of working age for a normal person let alone under 50 sooner or later one of them is going to have some serious health problems unfortunately just via statistical probability
    Well you can blame god for not trying.
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282


    Drakeford has had a good pandemic .... well, at least compared to Boris & his gang.

    But, even the most loyal Labour supporters must be surprised on hearing him advocating online shopping with Amazon as opposed to Welsh shops and supermarkets (who can't sell goods even online).

    And here is Drakeford explaining to the Welsh what you can't do (verbatim quote)

    "What you shouldn't do is to use the next two weeks to do things that you don't need to do."

    That is a pretty broad definition of what you can't do. Given the only thing you actually **need** to do are breathing, eating, drinking, excreting & defecating, then it is clear that Drakeford envisages a pretty limited life for the Welsh over the next 2 1/2 weeks.

    And, remember, many areas of rural Wales have some of the lowest COVID transmission rates in the whole UK. The nearest COVID death to me is at least 30 miles away.

    It will be interesting to see how this plays out ... but I think things are about to change for Drakeford. Some of this is going to be very unpopular.

    And if -- as seems to be the case -- Drakeford has asked the English police to man the border & arrest Welsh people leaving the country, then that is truly dreadful optics.

    And is a sign of how quickly we have all adapted.

    Imagine, a year ago in October 2019 (or even for New Year 2020) if someone had written a header predicting all of the bans and restrictions and self imposed restraint we are now living under. Would anyone have taken it seriously at all?
  • Options
    IanB2IanB2 Posts: 47,282
    CNN: You could be forgiven -- amid the rising coronavirus case numbers and the final presidential debate -- if you missed this headline on Thursday in The New York Times: "Trump Campaign Draws Rebuke for Surveilling Philadelphia Voters."

    But the headline -- and the story --are both a) very important and b) very scary. Here's the key bit:
    "The Trump campaign has been videotaping Philadelphia voters while they deposit their ballots in drop boxes, leading Pennsylvania's attorney general to warn this week that the campaign's actions fall outside of permitted poll watching practices and could amount to illegal voter intimidation."
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    Here's the age profile of the electorate in North Carolina so far

    https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1319845563475648512
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    PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 75,929
    edited October 2020
    IanB2 said:

    CNN: You could be forgiven -- amid the rising coronavirus case numbers and the final presidential debate -- if you missed this headline on Thursday in The New York Times: "Trump Campaign Draws Rebuke for Surveilling Philadelphia Voters."

    But the headline -- and the story --are both a) very important and b) very scary. Here's the key bit:
    "The Trump campaign has been videotaping Philadelphia voters while they deposit their ballots in drop boxes, leading Pennsylvania's attorney general to warn this week that the campaign's actions fall outside of permitted poll watching practices and could amount to illegal voter intimidation."

    It's faciscm in plain sight.
  • Options
    ydoethurydoethur Posts: 67,242
    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    England was only created by combining Wessex, Northumbria and Mercia, without Northumbria there is no England
    Warwickshire, Staffordshire and Derbyshire are most definitely in England, not Northumbria. What a stupid map.
    It appears to be loosely based on the Tripartite indenture of 1405, between Henry Percy, Earl of Northumberland, Edmund Mortimer, pretender to the throne of England, and Owain Glyn Dwr.

    However, that established the Trent as the boundary between England and Northumbria. So Lincolnshire, Norfolk, and much of Nottinghamshire and Staffs would have been in England.

    Moreover, it was never a serious possibility. It was three men who had lost the plot and were in the process of losing a war trying to make themselves feel good. A bit like Johnson fantasising about how he will spend his extra £350 million a week when we leave the EU.
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    Roy_G_Biv said:

    HYUFD said:
    Go on, I'll bite. What's the thrust of the story? The headline looks faintly idiotic, but I've learned not to jump to judgements on that alone.
    China is making a lot of money selling PPE. China has bought up and bought off many poorer countries. China is persecuting minority groups. Something should be done (what and by whom are unclear).
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/23/chinas-evil-regime-successfully-using-covid-accelerate-bid-global/
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    felixfelix Posts: 15,124

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales ban on selling books is a bit OTT methinks.

    I think the next step of the story writes itself.

    The restrictions are so severe & stupid that it will be only day or two before a Welsh Government Minister is caught inadvertently breaking them.
    Not be reading a book I suspect - skillset for that is just not there..
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    DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 24,391
    edited October 2020
    Immigration salary cap is to fall by £10,000 which might upset anyone daft enough to have thought Brexit was about reducing immigration, especially the ones who spoke to the Telegraph.
    https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/23/net-migration-targets-abandoned-38500-salary-threshold-settle/
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    AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    GOP *loses lawsuit
    https://twitter.com/RalstonReports/status/1319764218040627200

    * Well no stay granted, "merits" of case to be heard next week...

    https://twitter.com/AaronDFordNV/status/1319759978593308672?s=19

    Shade
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    brokenwheelbrokenwheel Posts: 3,352
    edited October 2020
    Pulpstar said:

    Here's the age profile of the electorate in North Carolina so far

    https://twitter.com/Pulpstar/status/1319845563475648512

    Btw, I hope you realise how much nonsense that thing you are replying to is. The number of 18-29 year olds who voted early in NC in 2016 for instance is vastly higher than 25,150. I mean 3.1 Million people voted early in NC!

    18-29 were at about 9.4% of the total early vote around this time in 2016 according to TargetSmart and around 10.7% now. Nothing much has changed.

    What I think MSNBC have mischievously done there is use just vote-by-mail figures and called it "early voting".
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,611
    .
    TimT said:

    rcs1000 said:

    https://thehill.com/regulation/522496-pennsylvanias-top-court-deals-blow-to-gop-by-tossing-signature-matching-rule

    Now not only will postals after election day count, the signatures don't even have to match. Pennsylvania is clown country.

    The "postals afterwards" still requires the ballot to have been postmarked on or before election day. That doesn't seem unreasonable given how insanely slow (and inconsistent) the US Postal Service is.
    The main reason my wife is not postal voting but opting for in-person is because she is worried that she can't do two signatures alike enough for the most persnickety of returns officers.
    Yes, any rule which allows invalidation only on the basis of mismatching signatures is absurd.
    And it should be noted that such a rule does not actually exists in PA election law, which is part of the reason the court ruled the way it did.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,611
    .
    ydoethur said:

    Andy_JS said:

    HYUFD said:

    England was only created by combining Wessex, Northumbria and Mercia, without Northumbria there is no England
    Warwickshire, Staffordshire and Derbyshire are most definitely in England, not Northumbria. What a stupid map.
    It appears to be loosely based on the Tripartite indenture of 1405, between Henry Percy, Earl of Northumberland, Edmund Mortimer, pretender to the throne of England, and Owain Glyn Dwr.

    However, that established the Trent as the boundary between England and Northumbria. So Lincolnshire, Norfolk, and much of Nottinghamshire and Staffs would have been in England.

    Moreover, it was never a serious possibility. It was three men who had lost the plot and were in the process of losing a war trying to make themselves feel good. A bit like Johnson fantasising about how he will spend his extra £350 million a week when we leave the EU.
    The Shakespeare scene where they haggle over it in is bitingly funny.
    The two Henry IV plays are among his best.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Wales: what I don’t get about the nonsense going on in Wales is that the Welsh govt are not attempting to justify the extreme restrictions (re:non essential goods) on public health grounds. If they said supermarkets couldn’t sell “non essential” goods because they are trying to prevent people leaving the house as much as possible then fair enough. I don’t agree with it, but one can (just about) construct a public health argument around it (on the basis that people might do it outside of a “standard” food shop).

    But they are going beyond that and trying to say it is about “fairness” to those businesses forced to close. Which seems to me designed to test the limits of public support. And if the suggestions about restrictions on what supermarkets can sell on line are true - well I just can’t for the life of me work out how that can be legal. And what the justification is. Are they saying a specialist computer retailer can sell a computer online, but a supermarket can’t? A clothes retailer can sell a tea shirt but a supermarket can’t? Or are the computer and clothes retailers banned as well? Fundamentally it’s got nothing to do with public health. Covid is sh*t for a lot of businesses. Especially small ones without an online presence. But the best you can do with those is compensate them as much as possible. But trying to distort the natural market instead will do little for them but just cause further economic damage and hardship for everyone. For no obvious public health purpose.
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,611

    Pulpstar said:

    Wales ban on selling books is a bit OTT methinks.

    I think the next step of the story writes itself.

    The restrictions are so severe & stupid that it will be only day or two before a Welsh Government Minister is caught inadvertently breaking them.
    They do seem designed to make what might be a justifiable intervention as unacceptable as possible.
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    alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Anyone remember the days when the most inspiring thing about elections was hearing the quotes from all sides of the political spectrum along the lines of “win or lose, the sight of people up and down the country coming together to cast their ballot is a beautiful thing. And what sets democracies out from the rest as something to fight for regardless of partisan politics”?
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    NigelbNigelb Posts: 62,611
    dixiedean said:

    Another way to look at it. I'm 54 next month. I was 25 when Major and Kinnock fought it out. Another world.
    And if that doesn't convince you...
    Bill Clinton is younger than both the candidates. As well as McConnell, Pelosi, Feinstein and Sanders.
    Which, to me, is breathtaking.
    America is not well served whatever the result.

    Pelosi (whatever one thinks of her) has actually been very effective in herding the Congressional cats; Feinstein, in contrast, looks every bit a relic from another age.
    And yet at the same time, Buttigieg was briefly a genuine prospect to be the youngest presidential candidate since Kennedy, and AOC in a very youthful leader of the Democrat left in the House.

    I’m pretty sure Biden will serve only a single term. The mechanisms for an enduring gerontocracy don’t really exist.
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