politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.

Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.

IIRC Hague also left a couple of gags out of the speech, but mentioned them on another program. One was about GB having to peck Cherie on the cheek and can't recall the other

TheScreamingEagles said:

HurstLlama said:

"Head Like A Hole by Nine Inch Nails sounds even better when it is preceded by World of Our Own by Westlife."

I have no idea what that means, but it sounds dreadful so I am rather glad of my ignorance.

Head Like A Hole is one of the finest tracks of all time, from one of the finest albums of all time.

Here's the video.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao-Sahfy7Hg

Westlife's World of Our Own is the antonym of Head Like A Hole

Judge for yourself

www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jal-vzO8bVE

Mr. Eagles, out of politeness I will say thank you for shedding light onto the darkness of my ignorance, but, frankly, I wish you hadn't bothered. It is a terrible thing to say but I was much happier in my ignorance.

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.

Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.

Mr Dancer, Hague is brilliant when Parliamentary occasion allows. His conference speeches are usually pretty fiery, and I expect that this years will be a stonker as it's pre-election.

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958

I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.

The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax free

Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.

In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.

It would hit the middle class pretty hard. Given there is a diminishing marginal return in the utility of money, I think a progressive income tax of at least two bands is better for the country as a whole.

Just to put this in context, this is what tax take at various levels is between current and 15k + 33%:

	Current	Proposed
10,000	0	0
15,000	1000	0
20,000	2000	1650
25,000	3000	3300
30,000	4000	4950
35,000	5000	6600
40,000	6000	8250
45,000	7602	9900
50,000	9602	11550
55,000	11602	13200
60,000	13602	14850
65,000	15602	16500
70,000	17602	18150
75,000	19602	19800
80,000	21602	21450
85,000	23602	23100

You are right that people in the £30k-£60k would be the most negatively affected by the UKIP tax changes.

MyBurningEars said:

FrankBooth said:

Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

Staged or parliamentary debates are places where Ed looks, relatively, at home and natural. On a good day, even accomplished.

Both stages are essentially overblown versions of sixth form debating societies - though that is partly because sixth form debating societies are scaled down models of the Commons ones!

He is somewhat worse at the public speaking side of things, and noticeably worse at the "common touch" stuff.

Erm his budget response was widely derided.

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958

I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.

The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax free

Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.

In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.

It would hit the middle class pretty hard. Given there is a diminishing marginal return in the utility of money, I think a progressive income tax of at least two bands is better for the country as a whole.

Just to put this in context, this is what tax take at various levels is between current and 15k + 33%:

	Current	Proposed
10,000	0	0
15,000	1000	0
20,000	2000	1650
25,000	3000	3300
30,000	4000	4950
35,000	5000	6600
40,000	6000	8250
45,000	7602	9900
50,000	9602	11550
55,000	11602	13200
60,000	13602	14850
65,000	15602	16500
70,000	17602	18150
75,000	19602	19800
80,000	21602	21450
85,000	23602	23100

You are right that people in the £30k-£60k would be the most negatively affected by the UKIP tax changes.

Hmm Food for thought.

I'd best not vote UKIP then ^_~

Looks like me and Bobajobb, in it together.

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958

I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.

The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax free

Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.

In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.

It would hit the middle class pretty hard. Given there is a diminishing marginal return in the utility of money, I think a progressive income tax of at least two bands is better for the country as a whole.

Just to put this in context, this is what tax take at various levels is between current and 15k + 33%:

	Current	Proposed
10,000	0	0
15,000	1000	0
20,000	2000	1650
25,000	3000	3300
30,000	4000	4950
35,000	5000	6600
40,000	6000	8250
45,000	7602	9900
50,000	9602	11550
55,000	11602	13200
60,000	13602	14850
65,000	15602	16500
70,000	17602	18150
75,000	19602	19800
80,000	21602	21450
85,000	23602	23100

You are right that people in the £30k-£60k would be the most negatively affected by the UKIP tax changes.

How many people on higher incomes do not use accountants to maximise their allowances and minimise their tax bill? Damn, few I bet. I know I did and even in retirement still do. The effect of removing such allowances should not be underestimated and will I think produce a different picture.

Isn't the distinction there between PAYE and everyone else rather than higher/basic ?

ToryJim said:

MyBurningEars said:

FrankBooth said:

Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

Staged or parliamentary debates are places where Ed looks, relatively, at home and natural. On a good day, even accomplished.

Both stages are essentially overblown versions of sixth form debating societies - though that is partly because sixth form debating societies are scaled down models of the Commons ones!

He is somewhat worse at the public speaking side of things, and noticeably worse at the "common touch" stuff.

Erm his budget response was widely derided.

It's no good comparing that to a Leaders Debate though, as he would be far better prepared and much less likely to be taken by surprise. The criticism of his budget response revolved more around the content and politics, than the "Weird Ed" meme. The crux of my point is that "Ed comes across weird on TV, so the Tories should give him as much debating time on screen as possible" is flawed, since that's one (artificial and controlled) environment in which he is likely comes across reasonably well.

More people are going to see highlights and snippets of the debates than the full things, and in such packages (e.g. of PMQs) Ed often comes across better than he is rated by the commentariat who got the full exposure.

fitalass said:

A timely reminder of William Hague at his very best in the Commons.
Youtube - William Hague - The European President (2008)
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fZ26SmDzxHE

Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:

Blair isn't seeking the EU Presidency.

Is he just waiting to be persuaded?
With a hat tip to the writers of Yes Minister

While he does not seek the office, he has pledged himself to the service of his continent, and that should his colleagues persuade him that that is the best way he can serve, he might reluctantly have to accept the responsibility, whatever his personal wishes might be.

http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/02/uk-create-manifesto-change-europe-commission-tony-blair

Hague has always been useless, a windbag who could not run a bath.

FrankBooth said:

malcolmg - I fail to see how an independent Scotland could charge different fees to students from rUK or the rest of the EU (if Scotland stays in). Either they'd have to introduce fees for all or have it free for all.

Frank, Not sure myself but still of little consequence to the vote overall. Must be some way I am sure but if not I would rather have independence and English students getting free education than being shackled to Westminster and not having democracy.

Pulpstar said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958

I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.

The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax free

Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.

In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.

It would hit the middle class pretty hard. Given there is a diminishing marginal return in the utility of money, I think a progressive income tax of at least two bands is better for the country as a whole.

Just to put this in context, this is what tax take at various levels is between current and 15k + 33%:

	Current	Proposed
10,000	0	0
15,000	1000	0
20,000	2000	1650
25,000	3000	3300
30,000	4000	4950
35,000	5000	6600
40,000	6000	8250
45,000	7602	9900
50,000	9602	11550
55,000	11602	13200
60,000	13602	14850
65,000	15602	16500
70,000	17602	18150
75,000	19602	19800
80,000	21602	21450
85,000	23602	23100

You are right that people in the £30k-£60k would be the most negatively affected by the UKIP tax changes.

How many people on higher incomes do not use accountants to maximise their allowances and minimise their tax bill? Damn, few I bet. I know I did and even in retirement still do. The effect of removing such allowances should not be underestimated and will I think produce a different picture.

Isn't the distinction there between PAYE and everyone else rather than higher/basic ?

Not really, Mr. Star. Until 2006 I had a PAYE job which was enough on its own to keep me in the higher tax bracket. I also had earnings outside that job. My accountant earned his pay many times over by perfectly legally and without using any aggressive or otherwise dodgy ploys to keep my tax bill down to what I was obliged to pay.

Leave aside outside earnings, anyone on 40% income tax is going to be doing self-assessment and if they are not employing someone to help them they are daft.

rcs1000 said:

Just to put this in context, this is what tax take at various levels is between current and 15k + 33%:

That's for employees and includes Employee's (but not Employer's) NI, right? For pensioners who have some taxable income it is much worse, given that at the moment their marginal tax rate is 20% but would increase to 33% (albeit offset by an increased personal allowance).

The bottom line is that there is no way of squaring the circle. If you make the system more honest and simpler by merging NI and Income Tax into a flat rate whilst raising the tax threshold, you hit many pensioners and middle earners, and those who benefit are the lowish paid (who benefit from the rise in allowances) and the very highly paid (who benefit from the lower top-end marginal tax rate)..

Bond_James_Bond said:

ToryJim said:

O/t but the travails of Good Morning Britain are hilarious

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2645877/Good-Morning-Britain-heading-chop-ratings-slump-not-host-Susanna-Reid-pull-viewers.html

I find Susanna rather foxy although I'd never watch a TV programme on that basis.

Probably I have watched three TV programmes in total in the last 15 years and I really don;t miss it.

She's like someone's really hot Mum when you're a teenager. Cougar.
GMB - garbage like the other side. Peebee for brekkie, not Susanna Reid.

Shadsy on Juncker

http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

ToryJim said:

Just a thought re the Spanish abdication, it is 411 years since the last time an Elizabeth in England faced a Phillip in Spain.

Thankfully, their navy is an even worse state than ours so they won't be trying the Armada trick again.

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958

I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.

The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax free

Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.

In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.

It would hit the middle class pretty hard. Given there is a diminishing marginal return in the utility of money, I think a progressive income tax of at least two bands is better for the country as a whole.

Just to put this in context, this is what tax take at various levels is between current and 15k + 33%:

	Current	Proposed
10,000	0	0
15,000	1000	0
20,000	2000	1650
25,000	3000	3300
30,000	4000	4950
35,000	5000	6600
40,000	6000	8250
45,000	7602	9900
50,000	9602	11550
55,000	11602	13200
60,000	13602	14850
65,000	15602	16500
70,000	17602	18150
75,000	19602	19800
80,000	21602	21450
85,000	23602	23100

You are right that people in the £30k-£60k would be the most negatively affected by the UKIP tax changes.

Is that based on UKIPs 2010 tax policy of 31% flat rate, £11500 threshold and no NI?

Thats not going to be the policy in 2015

That will most likely be no tax on min wage, raise the 40% threshold to £43000 and top rate of 40%

4/6 on Juncker is probably value. It might take a bit of institutional ping-pong before it pays off though.

malcolmg said:

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.

Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.

Mr Dancer, Hague is brilliant when Parliamentary occasion allows. His conference speeches are usually pretty fiery, and I expect that this years will be a stonker as it's pre-election.

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.

Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.

Mr Dancer, Hague is brilliant when Parliamentary occasion allows. His conference speeches are usually pretty fiery, and I expect that this years will be a stonker as it's pre-election.

If you think Hague is brilliant , I hope never to have the misfortune to have to spend a night in the pub with you , guaranteed to be bored to death. You need to get out more.

Malc

You would never go the fourteen rounds.

I disagree. Unlike either Cameron or Clegg as Opposition Leaders in the last pre 2010 GE debates, Ed Miliband won't be a new face of the Labour party. Quite the reverse, he will not only have to defend the record of the last Labour government, but also of course his own role as a Minister in that Government.

antifrank said:

Ed Miliband would do fine in a leaders' debate. Most people aren't expecting that. That's one of the reasons why I think it quite likely that they may not happen. By raising the possibility of legal challenge, UKIP are playing into David Cameron's hands.

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

shadsy said:

Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.

Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?

I have a better solution for the short term - a three month sabbatical starting at the end of the month.

HurstLlama said:

Pulpstar said:

HurstLlama said:

rcs1000 said:

Socrates said:

rcs1000 said:

isam said:

MaxPB said:

Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958

I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.

The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax free

Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.

In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.

It would hit the middle class pretty hard. Given there is a diminishing marginal return in the utility of money, I think a progressive income tax of at least two bands is better for the country as a whole.

Just to put this in context, this is what tax take at various levels is between current and 15k + 33%:

	Current	Proposed
10,000	0	0
15,000	1000	0
20,000	2000	1650
25,000	3000	3300
30,000	4000	4950
35,000	5000	6600
40,000	6000	8250
45,000	7602	9900
50,000	9602	11550
55,000	11602	13200
60,000	13602	14850
65,000	15602	16500
70,000	17602	18150
75,000	19602	19800
80,000	21602	21450
85,000	23602	23100

You are right that people in the £30k-£60k would be the most negatively affected by the UKIP tax changes.

How many people on higher incomes do not use accountants to maximise their allowances and minimise their tax bill? Damn, few I bet. I know I did and even in retirement still do. The effect of removing such allowances should not be underestimated and will I think produce a different picture.

Isn't the distinction there between PAYE and everyone else rather than higher/basic ?

Leave aside outside earnings, anyone on 40% income tax is going to be doing self-assessment and if they are not employing someone to help them they are daft.

Not everyone on 40% has to do self assessment.

After the week the lib dems have had,up one in the latest poll,tories down two.

Con's taking blame for clegg ;-)

Populus @PopulusPolls · 38s

New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 32 (-2); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (-1); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140602

malcolmg said:

FrankBooth said:

malcolmg - I fail to see how an independent Scotland could charge different fees to students from rUK or the rest of the EU (if Scotland stays in). Either they'd have to introduce fees for all or have it free for all.

Frank, Not sure myself but still of little consequence to the vote overall. Must be some way I am sure but if not I would rather have independence and English students getting free education than being shackled to Westminster and not having democracy.

There has been a lot of legal tit-for-tat about this, by people far more knowledgeable than myself. The SNP claim is that they will be able to claim special circumstances, e.g. due to their proximity to England. But the Commission usually requires any special circumstances invoked to justify discrimination to be Very Special Indeed. My gut instinct is that the SNP are being over-optimistic on this one, but gut instinct is all that boils down to.

MonikerDiCanio said:

malcolmg said:

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.

Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.

Mr Dancer, Hague is brilliant when Parliamentary occasion allows. His conference speeches are usually pretty fiery, and I expect that this years will be a stonker as it's pre-election.

ToryJim said:

Morris_Dancer said:

Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.

Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.

Mr Dancer, Hague is brilliant when Parliamentary occasion allows. His conference speeches are usually pretty fiery, and I expect that this years will be a stonker as it's pre-election.

If you think Hague is brilliant , I hope never to have the misfortune to have to spend a night in the pub with you , guaranteed to be bored to death. You need to get out more.

Cheer up, Malcolm. You're becoming a bore.

I am happy that I will never reach your level of boring, so extremely happy. You and sunny jim would make a nice pair of wally dugs, you could clear a room in no time.

Yes - Betfair back up to 4.5 for UKIP = 3.3/1 net in old money.
As my old boss used to say .... "Peter, there's no such thing as a secret, somebody always knows and somebody always tells."

BobaFett said:

fitalass said:

I disagree. Unlike either Cameron or Clegg as Opposition Leaders in the last pre 2010 GE debates, Ed Miliband won't be a new face of the Labour party. Quite the reverse, he will not only have to defend the record of the last Labour government, but also of course his own role as a Minister in that Government.

antifrank said:

Ed Miliband would do fine in a leaders' debate. Most people aren't expecting that. That's one of the reasons why I think it quite likely that they may not happen. By raising the possibility of legal challenge, UKIP are playing into David Cameron's hands.

In fairness Fitalass you are hardly a neutral judge.

You predict the best possible Tory outcome and the worst possible Labour one in every situation.

We have polling evidence that shows Ed is the worst Leader of Opposition since Michael Foot

antifrank said:

SimonStClare said:

ToryJim said:

Just a thought re the Spanish abdication, it is 411 years since the last time an Elizabeth in England faced a Phillip in Spain.

Great factoid Mr Jim - how did that last encounter turn out..? ;-)

Oh God, does that mean that Nigel Farage is going to be riding a horse at Tilbury?

"I know I have the body of a weak, feeble woman; but I have the heart and stomach of a..."

hmm, difficult, but if anyone could pull off a speech like that, Farage is your man..!

Ooooh! Catty!

http://bit.ly/1l0ksMc

MyBurningEars said:

malcolmg said:

FrankBooth said:

malcolmg - I fail to see how an independent Scotland could charge different fees to students from rUK or the rest of the EU (if Scotland stays in). Either they'd have to introduce fees for all or have it free for all.

Frank, Not sure myself but still of little consequence to the vote overall. Must be some way I am sure but if not I would rather have independence and English students getting free education than being shackled to Westminster and not having democracy.

There has been a lot of legal tit-for-tat about this, by people far more knowledgeable than myself. The SNP claim is that they will be able to claim special circumstances, e.g. due to their proximity to England. But the Commission usually requires any special circumstances invoked to justify discrimination to be Very Special Indeed. My gut instinct is that the SNP are being over-optimistic on this one, but gut instinct is all that boils down to.

MBE, I would tend to agree but who knows , may be some way out as you say. They could charge everyone and reimburse some with another grant perhaps but only up to amount they would pay in their home country.

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

shadsy said:

Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.

Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?

I have a better solution for the short term - a three month sabbatical starting at the end of the month.

You're taking 3 months off so you can spend more time discussing the indyref?

I thought I was dedicated by spending 5 days in Edinburgh either side of the Day of the referendum.

I shall be taking a more or less complete break from the internet. When I resurface, Scotland may have decided to become an independent country. Or not.

For sure I will be a foreigner by the time you return , Farage will be wanting me kept out of England.

TheScreamingEagles said:

BobaFett said:

fitalass said:

I disagree. Unlike either Cameron or Clegg as Opposition Leaders in the last pre 2010 GE debates, Ed Miliband won't be a new face of the Labour party. Quite the reverse, he will not only have to defend the record of the last Labour government, but also of course his own role as a Minister in that Government.

antifrank said:

Ed Miliband would do fine in a leaders' debate. Most people aren't expecting that. That's one of the reasons why I think it quite likely that they may not happen. By raising the possibility of legal challenge, UKIP are playing into David Cameron's hands.

In fairness Fitalass you are hardly a neutral judge.

You predict the best possible Tory outcome and the worst possible Labour one in every situation.

We have polling evidence that shows Ed is the worst Leader of Opposition since Michael Foot

Where is the polling evidence the tories will get 36% or above,new kid on the block ukip might see to that ;-)

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

antifrank said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

shadsy said:

Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.

Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?

I have a better solution for the short term - a three month sabbatical starting at the end of the month.

You're taking 3 months off so you can spend more time discussing the indyref?

I thought I was dedicated by spending 5 days in Edinburgh either side of the Day of the referendum.

I shall be taking a more or less complete break from the internet. When I resurface, Scotland may have decided to become an independent country. Or not.

That's a shame. I'll miss your contributions on here.

Oh, I've given most of my views by now. Who knows, in three months off I might come up with some new ones.

Twitter
Guido Fawkes ‏@GuidoFawkes 3m
Newark Responds to Mass Immigration of Politicians (via @ChrisMasonBBC) http://guyfawk.es/1pLDvun pic.twitter.com/QZwNrcTuje

AveryLP said:

Ooooh! Catty!

http://bit.ly/1l0ksMc

Hell hath no fury etc

SimonStClare said:

antifrank said:

SimonStClare said:

ToryJim said:

Just a thought re the Spanish abdication, it is 411 years since the last time an Elizabeth in England faced a Phillip in Spain.

Great factoid Mr Jim - how did that last encounter turn out..? ;-)

Oh God, does that mean that Nigel Farage is going to be riding a horse at Tilbury?

"I know I have the body of a weak, feeble woman; but I have the heart and stomach of a..."

hmm, difficult, but if anyone could pull off a speech like that, Farage is your man..!

If it were me, it would be outside Tilbury Town railway station

"I know I have the body of a weak, feeble trainspotter; but I have the heart and stomach of a King!"

MikeSmithson said:

TheScreamingEagles said:

Socrates said:

FrankBooth said:

Socrates said:

FrankBooth said:

Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.

Labour and Lib Dems would settle for the same debates as last time. Or is Cameron afraid of being seen to exclude Farage? But surely he could then share that responsibility with the others?

If Ofcom allow debates with the Liberal Democrats, but not UKIP, who are ahead of them in the polls, it would be outrageous. I suspect Cameron realises that agreeing to debates means UKIP will inevitably included.

Greens outpolled the LDs last week.

Dave is being equitable by inviting the Greens and Kippers into the debate.

In the first past the poll elections on May 22nd UKIP won 3.8% of the seats - the LD 10.4%.

The party retained control of 6 of the 7 councils they hold. UKIP hold no councils and have no MPs.

Debate involvement should depend on how far the board is tilted in your favour rather than how many votes you receive ?

I suppose it's consistent with FPTP, and true.

But slightly troubling nonetheless.

JackW said:

ToryJim said:

Just a thought re the Spanish abdication, it is 411 years since the last time an Elizabeth in England faced a Phillip in Spain.

It's 456 years since England since had a Spanish King Phillip as reigning monarch.

Hang on! Wasn't a condition of their marriage that Phillip specifically could not be styled King of England?

Tilbury is in Thurrock, BTW

Sunil_Prasannan said:

SimonStClare said:

antifrank said:

SimonStClare said:

ToryJim said:

Just a thought re the Spanish abdication, it is 411 years since the last time an Elizabeth in England faced a Phillip in Spain.

Great factoid Mr Jim - how did that last encounter turn out..? ;-)

Oh God, does that mean that Nigel Farage is going to be riding a horse at Tilbury?

"I know I have the body of a weak, feeble woman; but I have the heart and stomach of a..."

hmm, difficult, but if anyone could pull off a speech like that, Farage is your man..!

If it were me, it would be outside Tilbury Town railway station

"I know I have the body of a weak, feeble trainspotter; but I have the heart and stomach of a King!"

And no doubt a magnificent speech it would be to Dr Sunil – would you wear the full regalia of anorak with ostrich plumes ..? : - )

Socrates said:

FrankBooth said:

Socrates said:

FrankBooth said:

Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.

Labour and Lib Dems would settle for the same debates as last time. Or is Cameron afraid of being seen to exclude Farage? But surely he could then share that responsibility with the others?

If Ofcom allow debates with the Liberal Democrats, but not UKIP, who are ahead of them in the polls, it would be outrageous. I suspect Cameron realises that agreeing to debates means UKIP will inevitably included.

Ofcom doesn't operate on the vagaries of opinion polls that may change month to month but on past performance of actual votes/MP's in that respective election.

Accordingly and correctly Ukip were given major status for the Euro election but correctly not for the general election where they enjoy no support in the House of Commons.

Essentially actual bums on seats not transitory farts from pollsters.

AveryLP said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

antifrank said:

shadsy said:

Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.

Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?

At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.

UK manufacturing recovery continues in May

UK factory output is continuing to enjoy one of its strongest growth periods for 22 years, a survey has suggested.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-27663851?ocid=socialflow_twitter#

Socrates said:

The other absurd part of our tax system is that a household where one partner earns £50k and one partner earns £20k pays dramatically more tax than one where both earn £35k. How is that fair?

Something to do with women not wanting to be seen as chattels. Curiously, those who benefit most from not being seen as chattels are highly-paid lawyers married to highly-paid lawyers.

Basically I agree with you that the tax system has become really quite unfair, but it is very tricky politically to fix it. Clearly National Insurance is a massive anomaly: it is utterly bonkers that we tax ordinary paid employment at punitive rates (even for modest earners) compared with other forms of income such as dividends or income diverted into service companies. The best way to deal with this anomaly IMO is a gradual reduction in both employers' and employees' NI rates; any proposal to actually increase NI (as it is rumoured the two Eds are contemplating) is indefensible.

Have we been getting movements on the Newark betting market ahead of the Ashcroft poll?

GIN1138 said:

Have we been getting movements on the Newark betting market ahead of the Ashcroft poll?

UKIP last matched 5.0, Labour 70, Con 1.27