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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have

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  • Swiss_BobSwiss_Bob Posts: 619
    GIN1138 said:

    Have we been getting movements on the Newark betting market ahead of the Ashcroft poll?

    At the risk of adding two and two and getting five I have to say I agree, the poll is not looking good for UKIP.

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    BobaFett said:

    Socrates said:


    Leave aside outside earnings, anyone on 40% income tax is going to be doing self-assessment and if they are not employing someone to help them they are daft.

    I pay 40% and am not doing self-assessment. I imagine most people working in the London professional or financial sector are the same.
    I pay 40% and have to do SA.

    This is thanks to that bungling fool Ozzy and his crackpot child benefit cockup.
    I fell into the higher tax bracket and hence self-assessment (or what ever they called it in those days) in the 1980s, solely then on PAYE earnings and I haven't managed to escape it since. Your attempt to blame citizens having the right to pay only what they owe on Osborne is, therefore, total bollocks.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    JackW said:

    JackW said:

    ToryJim said:

    Just a thought re the Spanish abdication, it is 411 years since the last time an Elizabeth in England faced a Phillip in Spain.

    It's 456 years since England since had a Spanish King Phillip as reigning monarch.

    Hang on! Wasn't a condition of their marriage that Phillip specifically could not be styled King of England?
    Utterly incorrect.

    On marriage by Act of Parliament as King Philip I he enjoyed all the rights and dignities as joint sovereign during his marriage to Queen Mary. On her death he ceased to be King of England :

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Act_for_the_Marriage_of_Queen_Mary_to_Philip_of_Spain
    I stand corrected!
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    @JoeWatts_: William Hill says they have taken an £8000 bet for the Tories to win the Newark by-election.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited June 2014
    Pulpstar said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

    Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.
    Labour and Lib Dems would settle for the same debates as last time. Or is Cameron afraid of being seen to exclude Farage? But surely he could then share that responsibility with the others?
    If Ofcom allow debates with the Liberal Democrats, but not UKIP, who are ahead of them in the polls, it would be outrageous. I suspect Cameron realises that agreeing to debates means UKIP will inevitably included.
    Greens outpolled the LDs last week.

    Dave is being equitable by inviting the Greens and Kippers into the debate.
    In the first past the poll elections on May 22nd UKIP won 3.8% of the seats - the LD 10.4%.

    The party retained control of 6 of the 7 councils they hold. UKIP hold no councils and have no MPs.

    Debate involvement should depend on how far the board is tilted in your favour rather than how many votes you receive ?

    I suppose it's consistent with FPTP, and true.

    But slightly troubling nonetheless.
    Its no more and no less than vested interests keeping out a competitor by any means and flies in the face of their "progressive" views on everything else

  • AnorakAnorak Posts: 6,621

    ToryJim said:
    I find Susanna rather foxy although I'd never watch a TV programme on that basis.

    Probably I have watched three TV programmes in total in the last 15 years and I really don;t miss it.

    She's like someone's really hot Mum when you're a teenager. Cougar.
    GMB - garbage like the other side. Peebee for brekkie, not Susanna Reid.
    Highly technical question (and not in fact the start of a joke): What's the difference between a milf and a cougar?
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Scott_P said:

    @JoeWatts_: William Hill says they have taken an £8000 bet for the Tories to win the Newark by-election.

    Someone's confident.

  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779
    Anorak said:

    ToryJim said:
    I find Susanna rather foxy although I'd never watch a TV programme on that basis.

    Probably I have watched three TV programmes in total in the last 15 years and I really don;t miss it.

    She's like someone's really hot Mum when you're a teenager. Cougar.
    GMB - garbage like the other side. Peebee for brekkie, not Susanna Reid.
    Highly technical question (and not in fact the start of a joke): What's the difference between a milf and a cougar?
    Nothing as far as I know, apart from what viewpoint you're looking at it from (MILF is the viewpoint from a male POV, and cougar from the female POV)
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Anorak said:

    ToryJim said:
    I find Susanna rather foxy although I'd never watch a TV programme on that basis.

    Probably I have watched three TV programmes in total in the last 15 years and I really don;t miss it.

    She's like someone's really hot Mum when you're a teenager. Cougar.
    GMB - garbage like the other side. Peebee for brekkie, not Susanna Reid.
    Highly technical question (and not in fact the start of a joke): What's the difference between a milf and a cougar?
    I think a milf is an older woman desired by a younger man, where as a cougar is an older woman who desires younger men
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    Pulpstar said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

    Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.
    Labour and Lib Dems would settle for the same debates as last time. Or is Cameron afraid of being seen to exclude Farage? But surely he could then share that responsibility with the others?
    If Ofcom allow debates with the Liberal Democrats, but not UKIP, who are ahead of them in the polls, it would be outrageous. I suspect Cameron realises that agreeing to debates means UKIP will inevitably included.
    Greens outpolled the LDs last week.

    Dave is being equitable by inviting the Greens and Kippers into the debate.
    In the first past the poll elections on May 22nd UKIP won 3.8% of the seats - the LD 10.4%.

    The party retained control of 6 of the 7 councils they hold. UKIP hold no councils and have no MPs.

    Debate involvement should depend on how far the board is tilted in your favour rather than how many votes you receive ?

    I suppose it's consistent with FPTP, and true.

    But slightly troubling nonetheless.
    Pulpie

    The establishment, like a ship's decanter, should be designed not to spill blood even in the roughest sea storm.
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    edited June 2014
    Anorak said:

    ToryJim said:
    I find Susanna rather foxy although I'd never watch a TV programme on that basis.

    Probably I have watched three TV programmes in total in the last 15 years and I really don;t miss it.

    She's like someone's really hot Mum when you're a teenager. Cougar.
    GMB - garbage like the other side. Peebee for brekkie, not Susanna Reid.
    Highly technical question (and not in fact the start of a joke): What's the difference between a milf and a cougar?
    A MILF is an attractive older woman (especially a mother) who younger men want to sleep with. A Cougar is an older woman who actively pursues younger men (especially if she is attractive).
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Anorak said:

    ToryJim said:
    I find Susanna rather foxy although I'd never watch a TV programme on that basis.

    Probably I have watched three TV programmes in total in the last 15 years and I really don;t miss it.

    She's like someone's really hot Mum when you're a teenager. Cougar.
    GMB - garbage like the other side. Peebee for brekkie, not Susanna Reid.
    Highly technical question (and not in fact the start of a joke): What's the difference between a milf and a cougar?
    A milf is the object of attraction to younger guys a cougar is someone who is attracted to much younger guys.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    I hope that the principal ground for the petition was unreasonable behaviour rather than adultery.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    antifrank said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    I hope that the principal ground for the petition was unreasonable behaviour rather than adultery.
    Every divorce petition should be for unreasonable behaviour, only vindictive idiots would stick adultery down.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    antifrank said:

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    I hope that the principal ground for the petition was unreasonable behaviour rather than adultery.
    It was.

    Without giving too much away of the particulars it related to the time at which the respondent returned home, the condition he was in on arrival and the location in which he discharged his evening's intake.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    HA! I have no intention or need to get my todger out in open court (if he was RSM at Knightsbidge then he was Household Cavalry and therefore suspect). All I ask is that you stop this moustacheophobe nonsense.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Pulpstar said:

    Every divorce petition should be for unreasonable behaviour, only vindictive idiots would stick adultery down.

    But what if the adultery is entirely reasonable?
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    Nigel Farage lacks a moustache, Comrade Chancellor!
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited June 2014
    Worth a read, even if you disagree, it allows you to understand part of what is causing the polarization in world politics.

    "Who's in control – nation states or global corporations?"

    http://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2014/jun/02/control-nation-states-corporations-autonomy-neoliberalism
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Pulpstar said:

    Every divorce petition should be for unreasonable behaviour, only vindictive idiots would stick adultery down.

    But what if the adultery is entirely reasonable?
    Then there wouldn't be divorce proceedings taking place.
  • Bond_James_BondBond_James_Bond Posts: 1,939
    The PBers jostling to explain the difference between a milf and a cougar reminds me of that Not The Nine O'Clock News sketch where Rowan Atkinson's fogey judge hearing a shoplifting case didn't know what a calculator or a digital watch were, but could describe all the key features of the de luxe model inflatable sex doll...
  • JackW said:

    Ofcom doesn't operate on the vagaries of opinion polls that may change month to month but on past performance of actual votes/MP's in that respective election.

    Accordingly and correctly Ukip were given major status for the Euro election but correctly not for the general election where they enjoy no support in the House of Commons.

    Essentially actual bums on seats not transitory farts from pollsters.

    The OfCom policy, and the application of that policy, are only lawful if they are rational for the purposes of public law. It might be argued that a policy which ensured a party who, say, was consistently polling 40% with all pollsters but had no seats in the Commons, was not represented in the debates was prima facie irrational, and a protection for incumbents rather than a fair distribution of coverage. Once that is conceded, UKIP could mount a plausible argument for their inclusion. This will likely be settled by the courts. It will be an uphill struggle, but there is a possibility that a judicial review might succeed.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    Nigel Farage lacks a moustache, Comrade Chancellor!
    Comrade Sunilsky

    It is only one of his numerous failings.

    And curiously the only material difference from his model, College.

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    Nigel Farage lacks a moustache, Comrade Chancellor!
    And that is greatly to be regretted. Like John Major, he has the natural lip for it. Whether he could actually grow one worth the name is another matter and not something we are ever likely to discover.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    @Hurst

    Total garbage! He devised this insane system
    - the Child Benefit Tax - hence why I am now on SA despite being under PAYE!
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    I thought that the difference between a cougar and a MILF was three pints.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    Hmm the Hill bet and the Betfair movements suggest a good Newark Ashcroft for the Tories... what chance a leak?
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    BobaFett said:

    @Hurst

    Total garbage! He devised this insane system
    - the Child Benefit Tax - hence why I am now on SA despite being under PAYE!

    It's the tragedy of the age. Forget food banks, the bedroom tax, the benefits cap and all the other measures taken to reduce the deficit that are causing real suffering. It's the removal of the subsidy of middle class children's piano lessons that are the greatest evil caused by this government.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362

    AveryLP said:

    AveryLP said:

    antifrank said:

    shadsy said:

    Got an update on the beting on next EU Commission President. Juncker still odds-on despite Cameron's opposition.
    http://politicalbookie.wordpress.com/2014/06/02/will-cameron-stop-juncker-becoming-eu-chief/

    Sometimes I wish I was a bookie.
    Weren't you looking for a suitable mid-life-crisis-crazy-lifechange option a while back?
    At the time I recommended af grow a moustache and buy a Jaguar F Type.

    Had he done so, he could now have been standing for election to the European Parliament.

    Oi! You are at it again. Always these comments about moustaches. Why? You wouldn't do it about skin colour, eye colour, or baldness. So why this continual comment about moustaches? This is outright bigotry. A person has a dark skin therefore he must have a natural sense of rhythm and a weakness outside the off-stump is no worse than this person has a moustache and must therefore be a baby-eating, right-wing loon.

    Enough of these comments Mr. P., it is perfectly possible to be somewhat walrussy about the upper lip and be a respectable member of society who is kind to cats.
    Mr. Llama

    You have fallen into the UKIP opposition trap.

    The more you protest, the more you encourage!

    And the more intriguing the prospect of meeting you becomes.

    I bet you won't outdo my old drinking friend, Bernie, an ex RSM from the Knightsbridge barracks. The only man I have ever known to protest his wife's application for divorce by demonstrating in court and in person the principal grounds for the petition.
    Nigel Farage lacks a moustache, Comrade Chancellor!
    And that is greatly to be regretted. Like John Major, he has the natural lip for it. Whether he could actually grow one worth the name is another matter and not something we are ever likely to discover.
    Thanks to the bbc,they provided him one ;-) bbc said it was a glitch.

    http://i.dailymail.co.uk/i/pix/2013/09/20/article-2427431-181F2A0C00000578-491_1024x615_large.jpg
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    isam said:

    Hmm the Hill bet and the Betfair movements suggest a good Newark Ashcroft for the Tories... what chance a leak?

    Could be a leak, but bear in mind also that the place would have been crawling with canvassers over the weekend, so hundreds of people will be getting a feel for the lie of the land.
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,161
    So I suppose a Yummy Mummy is someone who thinks that she is a Milf?
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Hurst

    Total garbage! He devised this insane system
    - the Child Benefit Tax - hence why I am now on SA despite being under PAYE!

    It's the tragedy of the age. Forget food banks, the bedroom tax, the benefits cap and all the other measures taken to reduce the deficit that are causing real suffering. It's the removal of the subsidy of middle class children's piano lessons that are the greatest evil caused by this government.
    BobaFett is complaining of an even greater injustice: that he has to fill in a simple form once a year. Oh, the horror!
  • CarnyxCarnyx Posts: 43,334
    malcolmg said:

    malcolmg - I fail to see how an independent Scotland could charge different fees to students from rUK or the rest of the EU (if Scotland stays in). Either they'd have to introduce fees for all or have it free for all.

    Frank, Not sure myself but still of little consequence to the vote overall. Must be some way I am sure but if not I would rather have independence and English students getting free education than being shackled to Westminster and not having democracy.
    That's certainly the decent thing - though it smacks of being morally obliged to feed one's neighbour's starving children. The only way round it that has been offered on here is to charge everyone fees but give pro rata tax relief from later salaries in Scottish taxes (which also helps retain useful immigrants, I now realise).

    However, the No campaign seem to have gone quiet on this issue of late no doubt because it requires both Scotland and EWNI to be in the EU - and with Mr Farage now part of the No Campaign, at least in his view if not Mr Darling's, I doubt it will be revived.

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    edited June 2014

    antifrank said:

    BobaFett said:

    @Hurst

    Total garbage! He devised this insane system
    - the Child Benefit Tax - hence why I am now on SA despite being under PAYE!

    It's the tragedy of the age. Forget food banks, the bedroom tax, the benefits cap and all the other measures taken to reduce the deficit that are causing real suffering. It's the removal of the subsidy of middle class children's piano lessons that are the greatest evil caused by this government.
    BobaFett is complaining of an even greater injustice: that he has to fill in a simple form once a year. Oh, the horror!
    Which you can do online even! And if you do online, you have until the end of January 2015, not October 2014 as with a paper form!

    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/sa/file-online.htm
    http://www.hmrc.gov.uk/sa/deadlines-penalties.htm#2
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815
    edited June 2014

    isam said:

    Hmm the Hill bet and the Betfair movements suggest a good Newark Ashcroft for the Tories... what chance a leak?

    Could be a leak, but bear in mind also that the place would have been crawling with canvassers over the weekend, so hundreds of people will be getting a feel for the lie of the land.
    The real clue is that the UKIP heavy hitters didn't pile on yesterday.

    Their canvassing computers are saying "No".

  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098
    edited June 2014
    BobaFett said:

    @Hurst

    Total garbage! He devised this insane system
    - the Child Benefit Tax - hence why I am now on SA despite being under PAYE!

    Calm down. Why is what I said "garbage"? I started off into the wonderful world of tax assessment in the 1980s when, as a person wholly under PAYE, I crossed the boundary into the higher rate. That was a long time before Osborne became chancellor, was it not?

    Try taking the party political blinkers off, Mr Fett. Oh, and on a non-political basis, do get yourself an accountant, unless you already have one of course.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    antifrank said:

    I thought that the difference between a cougar and a MILF was three pints.

    No that's the difference between a MILF and a GILF

  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    isam said:

    Hmm the Hill bet and the Betfair movements suggest a good Newark Ashcroft for the Tories... what chance a leak?

    Could be a leak, but bear in mind also that the place would have been crawling with canvassers over the weekend, so hundreds of people will be getting a feel for the lie of the land.
    Newark's full of blue rosette immigrants right now.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    antifrank said:

    I thought that the difference between a cougar and a MILF was three pints.

    No that's the difference between a MILF and a GILF

    *shudders*
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651

    Socrates said:

    The other absurd part of our tax system is that a household where one partner earns £50k and one partner earns £20k pays dramatically more tax than one where both earn £35k. How is that fair?

    Something to do with women not wanting to be seen as chattels. Curiously, those who benefit most from not being seen as chattels are highly-paid lawyers married to highly-paid lawyers.
    Or to put it another way, why would it be fair for someone who earns £35k to pay as much tax as someone else who earns £50k, because of who he/she is living with at the time?

    Decoupling household income not only seems pretty sensible to me, but the notion of treating wives as independent economic units was a major mark of women's liberation. I'd be loathe to see that reversed.

    Wasn't it Lord Denning who bemoaned the fact that English law doesn't have a notion of "family" property? On that basis alone, taxing "family income" doesn't sound particularly promising.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,958
    ToryJim said:

    antifrank said:

    I thought that the difference between a cougar and a MILF was three pints.

    No that's the difference between a MILF and a GILF

    *shudders*
    In South Yorkshire the GILFs are 26 years old.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/432463.stm
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014
    The tories are putting a surprising amount of effort into Newark. I suspect this is because a UKIP win would make the position about the debates pretty much unarguable. The greens have 1 MP already but have not topped a national election like UKIP.

    Whether it is good tactics to seek to exclude Farage or not (I am not sure, especially given UKIP's focus on WWC voters of late) is a separate matter but clearly that is Cameron's objective at the moment. It is another reason why Farage should have been brave enough to go for this one himself.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014

    Decoupling household income not only seems pretty sensible to me, but the notion of treating wives as independent economic units was a major mark of women's liberation. I'd be loathe to see that reversed.

    Yes, it is ideological zeal rather than fairness which is the motivating force. As I said, in practice it primarily benefits couples who are both lawyers or who both hold other highly-paid jobs. I suspect it has been quite a big driver of growing inequality.

    It won't be reversed, of course, because in 2014 this particular ideology is dominant. Cameron's proposal for a transferable tax allowance would help alleviate the unfairness a bit.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    ToryJim said:

    antifrank said:

    I thought that the difference between a cougar and a MILF was three pints.

    No that's the difference between a MILF and a GILF

    *shudders*
    In South Yorkshire the GILFs are 26 years old.


    http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk/432463.stm
    Haha, although that is 15 years ago so she could be a GGILF by now ;)
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Socrates said:

    The other absurd part of our tax system is that a household where one partner earns £50k and one partner earns £20k pays dramatically more tax than one where both earn £35k. How is that fair?

    Something to do with women not wanting to be seen as chattels. Curiously, those who benefit most from not being seen as chattels are highly-paid lawyers married to highly-paid lawyers.
    Or to put it another way, why would it be fair for someone who earns £35k to pay as much tax as someone else who earns £50k, because of who he/she is living with at the time?

    Decoupling household income not only seems pretty sensible to me, but the notion of treating wives as independent economic units was a major mark of women's liberation. I'd be loathe to see that reversed.

    Wasn't it Lord Denning who bemoaned the fact that English law doesn't have a notion of "family" property? On that basis alone, taxing "family income" doesn't sound particularly promising.
    It seemed to when I was dealing with the council tax system !
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    The other absurd part of our tax system is that a household where one partner earns £50k and one partner earns £20k pays dramatically more tax than one where both earn £35k. How is that fair?

    Something to do with women not wanting to be seen as chattels. Curiously, those who benefit most from not being seen as chattels are highly-paid lawyers married to highly-paid lawyers.
    Or to put it another way, why would it be fair for someone who earns £35k to pay as much tax as someone else who earns £50k, because of who he/she is living with at the time?

    Decoupling household income not only seems pretty sensible to me, but the notion of treating wives as independent economic units was a major mark of women's liberation. I'd be loathe to see that reversed.

    Wasn't it Lord Denning who bemoaned the fact that English law doesn't have a notion of "family" property? On that basis alone, taxing "family income" doesn't sound particularly promising.
    Because they're not just "living together". I'm speaking about married couples with children, whose assets would be treated as community assets in a divorce. Apparently its all joint when you split up, but they're independent when you're living together. Complete nonsense.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    DavidL said:

    The tories are putting a surprising amount of effort into Newark. I suspect this is because a UKIP win would make the position about the debates pretty much unarguable. The greens have 1 MP already but have not topped a national election like UKIP.

    Whether it is good tactics to seek to exclude Farage or not (I am not sure, especially given UKIP's focus on WWC voters of late) is a separate matter but clearly that is Cameron's objective at the moment. It is another reason why Farage should have been brave enough to go for this one himself.

    Flapping Tories Threaten Candidates in Last Ditch Newark Bid

    http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/flapping-tories-threaten-candidates-in-last-ditch-newark-bid/

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Decoupling household income not only seems pretty sensible to me, but the notion of treating wives as independent economic units was a major mark of women's liberation. I'd be loathe to see that reversed.

    Yes, it is ideological zeal rather than fairness which is the motivating force. As I said, in practice it primarily benefits couples who are both lawyers or who both hold other highly-paid jobs. I suspect it has been quite a big driver of growing inequality.

    It won't be reversed, of course, because in 2014 this particular ideology is dominant. Cameron's proposal for a transferable tax allowance would help alleviate the unfairness a bit.
    How many lawyers do you know that pay basic rate income tax?
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Pulpstar said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

    Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.
    Labour and Lib Dems would settle for the same debates as last time. Or is Cameron afraid of being seen to exclude Farage? But surely he could then share that responsibility with the others?
    If Ofcom allow debates with the Liberal Democrats, but not UKIP, who are ahead of them in the polls, it would be outrageous. I suspect Cameron realises that agreeing to debates means UKIP will inevitably included.
    Greens outpolled the LDs last week.

    Dave is being equitable by inviting the Greens and Kippers into the debate.
    In the first past the poll elections on May 22nd UKIP won 3.8% of the seats - the LD 10.4%.

    The party retained control of 6 of the 7 councils they hold. UKIP hold no councils and have no MPs.

    Debate involvement should depend on how far the board is tilted in your favour rather than how many votes you receive ?

    I suppose it's consistent with FPTP, and true.

    But slightly troubling nonetheless.
    My view is that the Lib Dems would do better WITHOUT any debates - look what happened in the Euros

    Cameron doesn't want debates. Clegg shouldn't want them either. Perhaps we should just ditch the election campaign entirely.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    edited June 2014
    Socrates said:

    Because they're not just "living together". I'm speaking about married couples with children, whose assets would be treated as community assets in a divorce. Apparently its all joint when you split up, but they're independent when you're living together. Complete nonsense.

    Plus the benefits system is household-based.

    It's a dog's breakfast however you look at it.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    DavidL said:

    The tories are putting a surprising amount of effort into Newark. I suspect this is because a UKIP win would make the position about the debates pretty much unarguable. The greens have 1 MP already but have not topped a national election like UKIP.

    Whether it is good tactics to seek to exclude Farage or not (I am not sure, especially given UKIP's focus on WWC voters of late) is a separate matter but clearly that is Cameron's objective at the moment. It is another reason why Farage should have been brave enough to go for this one himself.

    Flapping Tories Threaten Candidates in Last Ditch Newark Bid

    http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/flapping-tories-threaten-candidates-in-last-ditch-newark-bid/

    Similar emails have gone out several times in recent weeks, hardly evidence of flapping.
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

    Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.
    Labour and Lib Dems would settle for the same debates as last time. Or is Cameron afraid of being seen to exclude Farage? But surely he could then share that responsibility with the others?
    If Ofcom allow debates with the Liberal Democrats, but not UKIP, who are ahead of them in the polls, it would be outrageous. I suspect Cameron realises that agreeing to debates means UKIP will inevitably included.
    Greens outpolled the LDs last week.

    Dave is being equitable by inviting the Greens and Kippers into the debate.
    In the first past the poll elections on May 22nd UKIP won 3.8% of the seats - the LD 10.4%.

    The party retained control of 6 of the 7 councils they hold. UKIP hold no councils and have no MPs.

    Do the LDs still maintain their principled support for PR?
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    JackW said:

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.

    Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.
    Labour and Lib Dems would settle for the same debates as last time. Or is Cameron afraid of being seen to exclude Farage? But surely he could then share that responsibility with the others?
    If Ofcom allow debates with the Liberal Democrats, but not UKIP, who are ahead of them in the polls, it would be outrageous. I suspect Cameron realises that agreeing to debates means UKIP will inevitably included.
    Ofcom doesn't operate on the vagaries of opinion polls that may change month to month but on past performance of actual votes/MP's in that respective election.

    Accordingly and correctly Ukip were given major status for the Euro election but correctly not for the general election where they enjoy no support in the House of Commons.

    Essentially actual bums on seats not transitory farts from pollsters.

    Hang on a minute. The entire argument for First Past the Post is that we don't elect parties we elect individual MPs. Yet when it comes to media coverage, we've supposedly voted for parties again? What a joke. If you are worried about opinion polls being volatile, then use a twelve month average. Don't double down on the unfairness in the electoral system.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Socrates said:

    How many lawyers do you know that pay basic rate income tax?

    None, that is my point. But I know a lot who are married to other lawyers, with both of them probably earning well over £100K and benefitting from two basic-rate tax bands.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,708

    DavidL said:

    The tories are putting a surprising amount of effort into Newark. I suspect this is because a UKIP win would make the position about the debates pretty much unarguable. The greens have 1 MP already but have not topped a national election like UKIP.

    Whether it is good tactics to seek to exclude Farage or not (I am not sure, especially given UKIP's focus on WWC voters of late) is a separate matter but clearly that is Cameron's objective at the moment. It is another reason why Farage should have been brave enough to go for this one himself.

    Flapping Tories Threaten Candidates in Last Ditch Newark Bid

    http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/flapping-tories-threaten-candidates-in-last-ditch-newark-bid/

    Seems fair enough to expect them to help out, they could use the election practice.
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    How many lawyers do you know that pay basic rate income tax?

    None, that is my point. But I know a lot who are married to other lawyers, with both of them probably earning well over £100K and benefitting from two basic-rate tax bands.
    Oh, I see. Didn't realise you were agreeing with me!
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Eric Pickles to be given task of wooing UKIP voters back to Tories before General Election

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eric-pickles-given-task-wooing-3632045

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    DavidL said:

    The tories are putting a surprising amount of effort into Newark. I suspect this is because a UKIP win would make the position about the debates pretty much unarguable. The greens have 1 MP already but have not topped a national election like UKIP.

    Whether it is good tactics to seek to exclude Farage or not (I am not sure, especially given UKIP's focus on WWC voters of late) is a separate matter but clearly that is Cameron's objective at the moment. It is another reason why Farage should have been brave enough to go for this one himself.

    Flapping Tories Threaten Candidates in Last Ditch Newark Bid

    http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/flapping-tories-threaten-candidates-in-last-ditch-newark-bid/

    Not sure I understand the "flapping" bit. Looks like the party chairman doing his job to me.

    I think the common consent is that the tories ran a rather successful Euro campaign and did better than expected. I have no idea who is entitled to the credit but there are numerous indications that the somewhat languorous tory election machine has gone up a gear or two in recent times. This looks like more of the same to me.

  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    ToryJim said:

    DavidL said:

    The tories are putting a surprising amount of effort into Newark. I suspect this is because a UKIP win would make the position about the debates pretty much unarguable. The greens have 1 MP already but have not topped a national election like UKIP.

    Whether it is good tactics to seek to exclude Farage or not (I am not sure, especially given UKIP's focus on WWC voters of late) is a separate matter but clearly that is Cameron's objective at the moment. It is another reason why Farage should have been brave enough to go for this one himself.

    Flapping Tories Threaten Candidates in Last Ditch Newark Bid

    http://order-order.com/2014/06/02/flapping-tories-threaten-candidates-in-last-ditch-newark-bid/

    Similar emails have gone out several times in recent weeks, hardly evidence of flapping.
    There is no doubt that the Tories have sharpened up their act over the last year or two. Although I'm no great fan of Grant Shapps as a presenter of Conservative policies, it does look as though he deserves a lot of credit for making the campaigning much more focused and professional.

  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 9,928

    After the week the lib dems have had,up one in the latest poll,tories down two.

    Con's taking blame for clegg ;-)

    Populus @PopulusPolls · 38s

    New Populus VI: Lab 37 (+2); Cons 32 (-2); LD 10 (+1); UKIP 13 (-1); Oth 8 (=) Tables http://popu.lu/s_vi140602

    People's minds are off the Euros.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    How many lawyers do you know that pay basic rate income tax?

    None, that is my point. But I know a lot who are married to other lawyers, with both of them probably earning well over £100K and benefitting from two basic-rate tax bands.
    Oh, I see. Didn't realise you were agreeing with me!
    Yes, for once!

  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 54,014

    Socrates said:

    How many lawyers do you know that pay basic rate income tax?

    None, that is my point. But I know a lot who are married to other lawyers, with both of them probably earning well over £100K and benefitting from two basic-rate tax bands.
    It is a sad truth that it is mainly lawyers who find other lawyers interesting.

  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322

    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    How many lawyers do you know that pay basic rate income tax?

    None, that is my point. But I know a lot who are married to other lawyers, with both of them probably earning well over £100K and benefitting from two basic-rate tax bands.
    Oh, I see. Didn't realise you were agreeing with me!
    Yes, for once!

    I think MyBurningEars disagreed, however, which was confusing me...
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746

    Eric Pickles to be given task of wooing UKIP voters back to Tories before General Election

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eric-pickles-given-task-wooing-3632045

    Isn't changing the party chairman a year before the election a bad idea?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @FrankBooth
    My contention is that we still need to wait till after Newark before the polls will settle down to "normal".
    The value they have at present is only in the "yar boo" arguments we have on here.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eric-pickles-given-task-wooing-3632045

    Voodoo poll:

    Preferred next PM

    Farage 53%

    Miliband 20%

    Cameron 7%

    Clegg 1%
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Eric Pickles to be given task of wooing UKIP voters back to Tories before General Election

    http://www.mirror.co.uk/news/uk-news/eric-pickles-given-task-wooing-3632045

    Isn't changing the party chairman a year before the election a bad idea?
    Yes and it won't be happening. As Mr Nabavi points out Shapps may fall down a little in terms of media performance but he is doing a very good job of sharpening the campaigning.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @anotherDave
    Esther McVey could prove interesting, She has a certain appeal with some, but I am not sure her "auto cue" style will stand up to close questioning.
    The caveat being of course, that she may change, having been freed from bedroom tax/subsidy straight jacket.
  • MyBurningEarsMyBurningEars Posts: 3,651
    Socrates said:

    Socrates said:

    The other absurd part of our tax system is that a household where one partner earns £50k and one partner earns £20k pays dramatically more tax than one where both earn £35k. How is that fair?

    Something to do with women not wanting to be seen as chattels. Curiously, those who benefit most from not being seen as chattels are highly-paid lawyers married to highly-paid lawyers.
    Or to put it another way, why would it be fair for someone who earns £35k to pay as much tax as someone else who earns £50k, because of who he/she is living with at the time?

    Decoupling household income not only seems pretty sensible to me, but the notion of treating wives as independent economic units was a major mark of women's liberation. I'd be loathe to see that reversed.

    Wasn't it Lord Denning who bemoaned the fact that English law doesn't have a notion of "family" property? On that basis alone, taxing "family income" doesn't sound particularly promising.
    Because they're not just "living together". I'm speaking about married couples with children, whose assets would be treated as community assets in a divorce. Apparently its all joint when you split up, but they're independent when you're living together. Complete nonsense.
    Apologies for confusion. Richard's "chattels" comment does get to the root justification of the current system even if he disagrees with it. My personal preference would be for taxation to be on as individual level as possible and the benefits system to take household level into account where necessary. It seems to me that the ever-closer interconnection of the benefits and taxation systems is a policy mistake that will become very hard to reverse, for similar reasons to the illogical persistence of NI.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    UKIP 4.5 <<
    Con 1.29 >>
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Con 1.3 >>
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322


    Apologies for confusion. Richard's "chattels" comment does get to the root justification of the current system even if he disagrees with it. My personal preference would be for taxation to be on as individual level as possible and the benefits system to take household level into account where necessary. It seems to me that the ever-closer interconnection of the benefits and taxation systems is a policy mistake that will become very hard to reverse, for similar reasons to the illogical persistence of NI.

    Why on Earth does it make sense for the divorce laws and the benefits system to be judged on household income/assets, yet taxation be based on an individual basis?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    RodCrosby said:

    Con 1.3 >>

    So far as I can tell the Newark polls haven't really moved a jot today, you could have probably traded 0.02 pips/0.2 Con/UKIP pips either way with some correct timing. Fundamentally, no change.
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Lab 75 >>
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    edited June 2014
    So farewell then Juan Carlos. You made your mark in history by understanding there was no future in the regime Franco had created and doing something about it. But it all got a bit messy towards the end of your reign. Your son will be the last King of Spain.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    RodCrosby said:

    Lab 75 >>

    Liquidity gaps appearing.

    Looks to me like noone is prepared to put cash one way or t'other as people worried about others 'knowing' the polls means they will be at an information disadvantage.
  • [Deleted User][Deleted User] Posts: 0
    edited June 2014
    The Tories have decided to give Scotland a significant measure of Devomax, including wide tax raising powers, and will put this in their manifesto:

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-27656628

    Wow. That's a big deal. It means also, of course, that when the Sindy vote is a NO that all independent minded Scots should vote Tory in May! This is worth a thread on its own.

  • There is no doubt that the Tories have sharpened up their act over the last year or two. Although I'm no great fan of Grant Shapps as a presenter of Conservative policies, it does look as though he deserves a lot of credit for making the campaigning much more focused and professional.

    That's why Tim (formerly of this site) used to attack & deride him continuously - way more effective that his opposite number...

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668

    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?

    The popularity of the monarchy is at an all time low. I suspect that at some there'll be a referendum and people will vote for it to be abolished. Felipe has a hell of a job on his hands to prevent that happening.

  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 61,950
    Mr. Observer, that'd be a shame.

    Funny how a referendum to abolish monarchy would be a one time deal, but a referendum to kowtow to Brussels would just be run again and again until the right answer popped up.
  • HurstLlamaHurstLlama Posts: 9,098

    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?

    Left-wing wishful thinking, dear.
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779

    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?

    The popularity of the monarchy is at an all time low. I suspect that at some there'll be a referendum and people will vote for it to be abolished. Felipe has a hell of a job on his hands to prevent that happening.

    I thought the people of the left didn't believe in referendums.
  • AlastairMeeksAlastairMeeks Posts: 30,340
    King Juan Carlos has a decent claim to be remembered as the father of Spanish democracy. That's not a bad legacy.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Mr. Observer, that'd be a shame.

    Funny how a referendum to abolish monarchy would be a one time deal, but a referendum to kowtow to Brussels would just be run again and again until the right answer popped up.

    The EU is a very recent deal compared to most monarchys.

    For the EU I'd have a perpetual referendum, once every 40 years.
  • AndreaParma_82AndreaParma_82 Posts: 4,714
    The MP for Bootle has lost the trigger ballot process. Selection process now opened to new candidates. He can stand in the new selection process and has the right to be automatically shortlisted if he wants to try.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189

    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?

    The popularity of the monarchy is at an all time low. I suspect that at some there'll be a referendum and people will vote for it to be abolished. Felipe has a hell of a job on his hands to prevent that happening.

    He's young, fairly popular in comparison to the rest of the family. His wife is glamorous and he has two young daughters. All this together with some careful reforms could put the monarchy in Spain back on track. That said I think of any nation likely to ditch monarchy Spain has to be top of the list.
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    edited June 2014
    Morality and money always throws up some interesting questions.
    I mentioned before that given the changes to JSA eligibility, the legalization of prostitution could in theory lead to "full employment"
    As with the legalization of recreational drugs, we have certain figures that provide a basis for analysis (like all economic figures these are based on broad assumptions)

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-magazine-monitor-27627132
  • MikeSmithsonMikeSmithson Posts: 7,382
    Hill have taken an £8000 bet for the Conservatives to win the Newark by-election – for which they are now 2/9 favourites.
  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?

    His beard?

  • AveryLPAveryLP Posts: 7,815

    Hill have taken an £8000 bet for the Conservatives to win the Newark by-election – for which they are now 2/9 favourites.

    From Alan Bown?

  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112

    Hill have taken an £8000 bet for the Conservatives to win the Newark by-election – for which they are now 2/9 favourites.

    That wasn't you, was it, Mike? :)
  • SocratesSocrates Posts: 10,322
    I wonder if GCHQ is doing something similar:

    The National Security Agency (NSA) is collecting millions of images a day for facial-recognition purposes, according to classified documents obtained from Edward Snowden by the New York Times.

    http://time.com/2804898/snowden-nsa-facial-recognition/
  • SquareRootSquareRoot Posts: 7,095
    Just had a phone call


    Him: Hello , Can I speak to Dr XXXXXXXXX please?

    Me : I am sorry but no, she died 19 months ago.

    Him: I just want to speak to her for a minute or two on a confidential matter. She will know what I am talking about if you put me through.....

    Me.. I just told you she had died..

    Him: I only want to speak to her for a moment...

    I put the phone down.
  • Sunil_PrasannanSunil_Prasannan Posts: 52,112
    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?

    The popularity of the monarchy is at an all time low. I suspect that at some there'll be a referendum and people will vote for it to be abolished. Felipe has a hell of a job on his hands to prevent that happening.

    He's young, fairly popular in comparison to the rest of the family. His wife is glamorous and he has two young daughters. All this together with some careful reforms could put the monarchy in Spain back on track. That said I think of any nation likely to ditch monarchy Spain has to be top of the list.
    Jamaica?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406

    Hill have taken an £8000 bet for the Conservatives to win the Newark by-election – for which they are now 2/9 favourites.

    Perhaps the same person lumped on UKIP at 11-2 ?
  • SmarmeronSmarmeron Posts: 5,099
    @Socrates

    Perhaps we need to revisit the "ban the burqa" debate? ;-)
  • SlackbladderSlackbladder Posts: 9,779

    ToryJim said:

    Mr. Observer, why do you say he'll be the last king?

    The popularity of the monarchy is at an all time low. I suspect that at some there'll be a referendum and people will vote for it to be abolished. Felipe has a hell of a job on his hands to prevent that happening.

    He's young, fairly popular in comparison to the rest of the family. His wife is glamorous and he has two young daughters. All this together with some careful reforms could put the monarchy in Spain back on track. That said I think of any nation likely to ditch monarchy Spain has to be top of the list.
    Jamaica?
    No, she went of her own accord... *boom tish*
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 30,821

    Hill have taken an £8000 bet for the Conservatives to win the Newark by-election – for which they are now 2/9 favourites.

    It's very hard to square reports like that with the tuppence ha'penny maximum stake that they'll take from me.
This discussion has been closed.