politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » From the latest Ashcroft Marginals polling that should have
As we wait for this afternoon’s Newark poll from Lord Ashcroft I thought it worth going back to his massive marginals polling published the weekend before last. Because of the timing, on the Saturday after the local results but before the Euros, it got nothing like the attention it deserved.
Comments
-
First0
-
Interesting stuff, Mr. Smithson, but UKIP remains the joker in the pack. Very hard to call the election.0
-
0
-
Why has the good lord not asked about UKIP?0
-
Lots of don't knows which could be important.0
-
This was a genuine first.JackW said:0 -
You know you're in trouble when even Nick Clegg has a go
norman smith @BBCNormanS 2m
Nick Clegg calls for 2022 World Cup bid to be re-run if S.Times claims proven0 -
Interesting stuff. The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.0
-
You wouldnt go far wrong backing UKIP in any of those constituencies IMO.. and when the election is nearer, hopefully "to finish 2nd" will be offered...0
-
Ashcroft and Populus are very decent polls for Labour.
But I want another week before betting - the polls have been very erratic around the Euros and we would be unwise to read too much into them.0 -
Is Clegg in a position to call for elections to be re-run given the suspicions over his leadership winTheScreamingEagles said:You know you're in trouble when even Nick Clegg has a go
norman smith @BBCNormanS 2m
Nick Clegg calls for 2022 World Cup bid to be re-run if S.Times claims proven
0 -
Given the difficulties in marginals polling, I would not bet the house on this data being accurate. But the picture it paints is noteworthy.0
-
FPT:
@JackW said:
Treachery from a kipper following the EU monarchies and not the true British nature of monarchy.
Burn the Ukip traitor !!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing personal you understand.
------------------------------------------
Oh, I quite understand my Lord of the Hillocks. Mind you I didn't call for a Republic - I'm giving ageing Charlie a chance, so you must temper your outrage.0 -
Here's an interesting conclusion you could draw from those figures .... without Ukip, Labour would do very well.
Yes, I know it's silly, but it's the sort of conclusion that politicians like to indulge in.0 -
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.
0 -
Populus 37/320
-
So you concede all the other "first" posts were illegitimate.TheScreamingEagles said:
This was a genuine first.JackW said:
You are guilty as charged and will henceforth purchase all your footwear in "Primark".
0 -
On topic, when Lord Ashcroft publishes a major poll,
1) Mike is on holiday
2) Something major happens/is happening.
I remember last year, he published a major poll on immigration, but it was the day after Cameron lost the Syria vote, and that got buried under everything else.
Though Double Carpet, David Herdon, Morus and I all maintain 2 is caused by 10 -
There's a huge Primark in the centre of Manchester, I refuse to become a Primani Prince.JackW said:
So you concede all the other "first" posts were illegitimate.TheScreamingEagles said:
This was a genuine first.JackW said:
You are guilty as charged and will henceforth purchase all your footwear in "Primark".0 -
Amazing that 22% would like to see the Lib Dems in government. That must be encouraging news for Mr Clegg et al.0
-
Whilst this is true, there are probably shocking pics of all senior politicians. That some appear is indicative. If Miliband was generally better perceived or had a better operation the bacon sandwich pictures would never have seen the light of day.BobaFett said:
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.0 -
Roger Helmer is using a caravan, this alone makes it essential people do not vote for him.
Christ, I wanna go all Sharia law on caravan owners.
Roger Helmer @RogerHelmerMEP 26m
With Denise from Northampton in Newark Market Square.
pic.twitter.com/K0ZgwEpst30 -
He did, the results are on page 4rcs1000 said:Why has the good lord not asked about UKIP?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf0 -
Groan. Remember Dave's beachwear moment? It's all pretty pathetic stuff. Who cares?ToryJim said:
Whilst this is true, there are probably shocking pics of all senior politicians. That some appear is indicative. If Miliband was generally better perceived or had a better operation the bacon sandwich pictures would never have seen the light of day.BobaFett said:
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.0 -
tyvm: amused that I'm probably in the only constituency in the UK where the LibDems outpoll UKIP 4:1isam said:
He did, the results are on page 4rcs1000 said:Why has the good lord not asked about UKIP?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf0 -
Virtuous united Labour on the rise. :-)BobaFett said:Populus 37/32
0 -
Of all the marginals, Thurrock is the one where least Tory voters, and second least Labour voters rule out voting for UKIP
Sherwood is the place where most Labour voters say they wouldnt rule out UKIP.. isnt that next to Newark? Is that relevant for tactics on Thursday?
It's on page 7
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf0 -
YouGov Sunday Times
If you HAD to choose, would you rather the LiberalmDemocrats worked with (after 2015) the Conservative party or the Labour party?
Cons:36 (Cons and UKIP voters in favour)
Labour: 41(LAB & LD voters in favour)
DK: 250 -
Can anyone explain why, after 13 years of sleaze culminating in wrecking the UK and several other economies, 35% want Labour back in?
Do these people care about nothing except their own benefits and public sector salaries?0 -
Or 22% don't want unfettered power to any one party as they are not trusted. Not automatically a positive endorsement of LibDems.SandyRentool said:Amazing that 22% would like to see the Lib Dems in government. That must be encouraging news for Mr Clegg et al.
0 -
As you say, all pretty pathetic. But it sometimes works, and your lot invented it (Major-shirt-underpants).BobaFett said:
Groan. Remember Dave's beachwear moment? It's all pretty pathetic stuff. Who cares?ToryJim said:
Whilst this is true, there are probably shocking pics of all senior politicians. That some appear is indicative. If Miliband was generally better perceived or had a better operation the bacon sandwich pictures would never have seen the light of day.BobaFett said:
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.
0 -
NickPalmer said:
Virtuous united Labour on the rise. :-)BobaFett said:Populus 37/32
Remarkably the poll was neither reported, nor commented on Nick.
Who a thunk it??
0 -
Repression works wonders.Bond_James_Bond said:Can anyone explain why, after 13 years of sleaze culminating in wrecking the UK and several other economies, 35% want Labour back in?
Do these people care about nothing except their own benefits and public sector salaries?
Hell even one their ex MPs forgot about the laws they passed.0 -
Sigh.Ishmael_X said:
As you say, all pretty pathetic. But it sometimes works, and your lot invented it (Major-shirt-underpants).BobaFett said:
Groan. Remember Dave's beachwear moment? It's all pretty pathetic stuff. Who cares?ToryJim said:
Whilst this is true, there are probably shocking pics of all senior politicians. That some appear is indicative. If Miliband was generally better perceived or had a better operation the bacon sandwich pictures would never have seen the light of day.BobaFett said:
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.
0 -
Wrong.BobaFett said:NickPalmer said:
Virtuous united Labour on the rise. :-)BobaFett said:Populus 37/32
Remarkably the poll was neither reported, nor commented on Nick.
Who a thunk it??0 -
Hmm On the Cons at 5-1 in Sherwood.isam said:Of all the marginals, Thurrock is the one where least Tory voters, and second least Labour voters rule out voting for UKIP
Sherwood is the place where most Labour voters say they wouldnt rule out UKIP.. isnt that next to Newark? Is that relevant for tactics on Thursday?
It's on page 7
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf
Those numbers look good for Labour to me, clear preference for a Milipede Gov't in the marginals...0 -
It certainly was recorded on the previous thread. And you and Nick Palmer have both commented on it. What's your problem?BobaFett said:NickPalmer said:
Virtuous united Labour on the rise. :-)BobaFett said:Populus 37/32
Remarkably the poll was neither reported, nor commented on Nick.
Who a thunk it??0 -
Yes, it's clearly a vast right-wing conspiracy (TM Hillary Clinton)BobaFett said:NickPalmer said:
Virtuous united Labour on the rise. :-)BobaFett said:Populus 37/32
Remarkably the poll was neither reported, nor commented on Nick.
Who a thunk it??0 -
A shame tim isn't here to inform you that Cameron's propensity to blush renders him unfit for office.BobaFett said:
Groan. Remember Dave's beachwear moment? It's all pretty pathetic stuff. Who cares?ToryJim said:
Whilst this is true, there are probably shocking pics of all senior politicians. That some appear is indicative. If Miliband was generally better perceived or had a better operation the bacon sandwich pictures would never have seen the light of day.BobaFett said:
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. A The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.0 -
FPT
My payslips include employer NI as well the usual NI line.Gaius said:
Workers would be even more appalled if employers NI also appeared on payslips.0 -
Do you live near Kew Gardens ?rcs1000 said:
tyvm: amused that I'm probably in the only constituency in the UK where the LibDems outpoll UKIP 4:1isam said:
He did, the results are on page 4rcs1000 said:Why has the good lord not asked about UKIP?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf
Twickenham, Richmond ?
Certainly SW London I'm guessing.0 -
Pathetic TSE, you didn't even include the obligatory exclamation mark.TheScreamingEagles said:First
0 -
Sorry!peter_from_putney said:
Pathetic TSE, you didn't even include the obligatory exclamation mark.TheScreamingEagles said:First
0 -
Fail.BobaFett said:
Sigh.Ishmael_X said:
As you say, all pretty pathetic. But it sometimes works, and your lot invented it (Major-shirt-underpants).BobaFett said:
Groan. Remember Dave's beachwear moment? It's all pretty pathetic stuff. Who cares?ToryJim said:
Whilst this is true, there are probably shocking pics of all senior politicians. That some appear is indicative. If Miliband was generally better perceived or had a better operation the bacon sandwich pictures would never have seen the light of day.BobaFett said:
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.
0 -
I thought it was quite a clever move by Labour to get Sadiq Khan to love-bomb the Ukip voters.
Probably on the basis that he can apologise for not listening to them about immigration without being torn to pieces and accused of being a racist by his own party.
Frank Field however ...
0 -
Nah: Hampstead & KilburnPulpstar said:
Do you live near Kew Gardens ?rcs1000 said:
tyvm: amused that I'm probably in the only constituency in the UK where the LibDems outpoll UKIP 4:1isam said:
He did, the results are on page 4rcs1000 said:Why has the good lord not asked about UKIP?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf
Twickenham, Richmond ?
Certainly SW London I'm guessing.0 -
Although I did grow up in Strawberry Hill (halfway between Richmond and Twickenham)Pulpstar said:
Do you live near Kew Gardens ?rcs1000 said:
tyvm: amused that I'm probably in the only constituency in the UK where the LibDems outpoll UKIP 4:1isam said:
He did, the results are on page 4rcs1000 said:Why has the good lord not asked about UKIP?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf
Twickenham, Richmond ?
Certainly SW London I'm guessing.0 -
Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958
I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.0 -
FPT
I beg to differ. A budgetary change is a change even if it does not affect the total sum by a lot - many's a mickle maks a muckle or, Anglice, it all adds up.Richard_Nabavi said:
That is a most ridiculous argument, so obviously bogus that it is remarkable that anyone makes it with a straight face. Sure, on the overall budget there is a tiny second-order effect on Scotland from the Barnett formula, but, inasmuch as that is so, it would give a reason for Scottish MPs to vote only on the budget, not at all on (for example) the details of NHS England reorganisation, free schools or other non-Scottish education policies.Carnyx said:
Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.
The simple fact is that Labour want their unfair advantage of having not only smaller constituencies in Labour voting areas, but also their block vote of Scottish Labour MPs interfering in English and Welsh affairs which don't affect their constituents at all. So it is hardly surprising that Labour don't want to correct this outrageous anomaly. The Barnett formula argument is just an excuse, and an exceptionally feeble one at that.
But I have no disagreement at all about the impropriety of voting on non-budgetary issues (usually - there may be some genuine cases where there are problems affecting Scotland).
What I am actually trying to find out is whether such voting IS a problem, and whether a reasonably impartial analysis has been published.
0 -
Good Populus for poll for Labour - Ed Milliband has been keeping his head down since the Euro elections, of course...
We await word from His Lordship.0 -
Quite frightening that there's a phrase to describe Primark shoppers - and which you knew?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a huge Primark in the centre of Manchester, I refuse to become a Primani Prince.JackW said:
So you concede all the other "first" posts were illegitimate.TheScreamingEagles said:
This was a genuine first.JackW said:
You are guilty as charged and will henceforth purchase all your footwear in "Primark".
0 -
I'm guessing the former, rather than the latter.rcs1000 said:
Nah: Hampstead & KilburnPulpstar said:
Do you live near Kew Gardens ?rcs1000 said:
tyvm: amused that I'm probably in the only constituency in the UK where the LibDems outpoll UKIP 4:1isam said:
He did, the results are on page 4rcs1000 said:Why has the good lord not asked about UKIP?
http://lordashcroftpolls.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/05/LORD-ASHCROFT-POLLS-Marginals-report-May-2014.pdf
Twickenham, Richmond ?
Certainly SW London I'm guessing.
0 -
I'm a UKIP supporter that will happily call for a republic. I'm much more of a Whig than a Tory.MikeK said:FPT:
@JackW said:
Treachery from a kipper following the EU monarchies and not the true British nature of monarchy.
Burn the Ukip traitor !!!!!!!!!!!
Nothing personal you understand.
------------------------------------------
Oh, I quite understand my Lord of the Hillocks. Mind you I didn't call for a Republic - I'm giving ageing Charlie a chance, so you must temper your outrage.0 -
The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax freeMaxPB said:Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958
I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.
0 -
A few of my female friends describe themselves as Primani Princesses.SimonStClare said:
Quite frightening that there's a phrase to describe Primark shoppers - and which you knew?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a huge Primark in the centre of Manchester, I refuse to become a Primani Prince.JackW said:
So you concede all the other "first" posts were illegitimate.TheScreamingEagles said:
This was a genuine first.JackW said:
You are guilty as charged and will henceforth purchase all your footwear in "Primark".
Is a variation of Armani.
Me, I'm at the cutting edge of all things modern and fashion related.
0 -
Seriously I find that hard to believe. Your music taste certainly suggests the reverse.TheScreamingEagles said:
A few of my female friends describe themselves as Primani Princesses.SimonStClare said:
Quite frightening that there's a phrase to describe Primark shoppers - and which you knew?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a huge Primark in the centre of Manchester, I refuse to become a Primani Prince.JackW said:
So you concede all the other "first" posts were illegitimate.TheScreamingEagles said:
This was a genuine first.JackW said:
You are guilty as charged and will henceforth purchase all your footwear in "Primark".
Is a variation of Armani.
Me, I'm at the cutting edge of all things modern and fashion related.0 -
Boo hiss to republicanism!
Mr. Eagles, I fear your delusions are becoming ever worse.0 -
Further to this - have found these to be of interest for those few who are interested. I had forgotten about the Foundations Trust vote; but the HoC Library Paper has some interesting comments on the budgetary issue which rather tend to go against Mr Nabavi's comments on that particular 'excuse'.Carnyx said:FPT
I beg to differ. A budgetary change is a change even if it does not affect the total sum by a lot - many's a mickle maks a muckle or, Anglice, it all adds up.Richard_Nabavi said:
That is a most ridiculous argument, so obviously bogus that it is remarkable that anyone makes it with a straight face. Sure, on the overall budget there is a tiny second-order effect on Scotland from the Barnett formula, but, inasmuch as that is so, it would give a reason for Scottish MPs to vote only on the budget, not at all on (for example) the details of NHS England reorganisation, free schools or other non-Scottish education policies.Carnyx said:
Seriously: nobody on this site has yet been able to answer my question: does the West Lothian Question meaningfully exist? Any vote on the English budget for item X is legitimate for Scots MPs, because it also affects the Scottish budget under the Barnett formula.
The simple fact is that Labour want their unfair advantage of having not only smaller constituencies in Labour voting areas, but also their block vote of Scottish Labour MPs interfering in English and Welsh affairs which don't affect their constituents at all. So it is hardly surprising that Labour don't want to correct this outrageous anomaly. The Barnett formula argument is just an excuse, and an exceptionally feeble one at that.
But I have no disagreement at all about the impropriety of voting on non-budgetary issues (usually - there may be some genuine cases where there are problems affecting Scotland).
What I am actually trying to find out is whether such voting IS a problem, and whether a reasonably impartial analysis has been published.
http://www.consoc.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/2012/03/The-West-Lothian-Question-.pdf
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/alex-massie/2013/08/than-answer-to-the-west-lothian-question-is-to-stop-asking-it/
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2012/jan/17/what-is-west-lothian-question
0 -
Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.isam said:
The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax freeMaxPB said:Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958
I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.
In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.0 -
You need bad music to help you appreciate good music even more.ToryJim said:
Seriously I find that hard to believe. Your music taste certainly suggests the reverse.TheScreamingEagles said:
A few of my female friends describe themselves as Primani Princesses.SimonStClare said:
Quite frightening that there's a phrase to describe Primark shoppers - and which you knew?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a huge Primark in the centre of Manchester, I refuse to become a Primani Prince.JackW said:
So you concede all the other "first" posts were illegitimate.TheScreamingEagles said:
This was a genuine first.JackW said:
You are guilty as charged and will henceforth purchase all your footwear in "Primark".
Is a variation of Armani.
Me, I'm at the cutting edge of all things modern and fashion related.
Head Like A Hole by Nine Inch Nails sounds even better when it is preceded by World of Our Own by Westlife.0 -
But the budget is set in the Budget, so even in the narrowest faked-up Barnett argument sense, a Westminster bill relating to education or the NHS in England does not affect Scotland. How NHS England wants to organise itself or spend the budget allocated by the Chancellor is completely irrelevant to Scottish voters.Carnyx said:I beg to differ. A budgetary change is a change even if it does not affect the total sum by a lot - many's a mickle maks a muckle or, Anglice, it all adds up.
But I have no disagreement at all about the impropriety of voting on non-budgetary issues (usually - there may be some genuine cases where there are problems affecting Scotland).
What I am actually trying to find out is whether such voting IS a problem, and whether a reasonably impartial analysis has been published.
0 -
-
I suspect pensioners would be less keen on the idea of their income tax rate increasing by half, though, especially since they were conned by successive government into thinking that National Insurance was national insurance.rcs1000 said:
Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.isam said:
The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax freeMaxPB said:Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958
I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.
In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.
0 -
Rexel56 said:
A shame tim isn't here to inform you that Cameron's propensity to blush renders him unfit for office.BobaFett said:
Groan. Remember Dave's beachwear moment? It's all pretty pathetic stuff. Who cares?ToryJim said:
Whilst this is true, there are probably shocking pics of all senior politicians. That some appear is indicative. If Miliband was generally better perceived or had a better operation the bacon sandwich pictures would never have seen the light of day.BobaFett said:
Nick - I am currently eating a bacon sandwich.NickPalmer said:Interesting stuff. A The variations between constituencies look like random variation at first glance, and there's a fairly consistent pattern. It shows the limits of the "OMG, vote Labour and you'll get Miliband!!!" strategy - by a margin of 10 or so, the marginals are saying "Yeah, fine". Either the Tories need to be scarier than the "Look, he can't eat a bacon sandwich tidily" line, or they need some other reason to vote for them.
I have every confidence that I would look untidy doing so, if a snapper chose one of 100 stills.
Typical Tory, trying to repackage Flashman-like choler as demure blushing.
'I was kissing that baby, not eating it.'
0 -
UKIP policy was also to phase out Employer NI. I suspect the rate would have to be far in excess of 33% to make the sums work (though on phasing out Employer NI they did suggest other alternatives to lumping it on income tax).rcs1000 said:Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.
0 -
Isam,
The local Labour party spent quite a lt of money on advertising n the last month or two. They ignored everyone else and went for Ukip with a vengeance. I've now learned that the fascist, racist party intend to privatise the NHS and leave old people to die in bus shelters. The swine!
It seems to have worked. All the local council seats stayed red even though Ukip came second in virtually all of them.
Merseyside? Don't cha just love it.0 -
I was once a Dedicated Follower of Fashion, and if as said, fashion repeats every 30 years, I still am. ;-)TheScreamingEagles said:
[snip]SimonStClare said:
Quite frightening that there's a phrase to describe Primark shoppers - and which you knew?TheScreamingEagles said:
There's a huge Primark in the centre of Manchester, I refuse to become a Primani Prince.JackW said:
So you concede all the other "first" posts were illegitimate.TheScreamingEagles said:
This was a genuine first.JackW said:
You are guilty as charged and will henceforth purchase all your footwear in "Primark".
Me, I'm at the cutting edge of all things modern and fashion related.0 -
O/T
Does anyone know the answer to this?
With the changes in pensions coming in, can I buy my wife an annuity with one of my pension pots so that our combined tax liability goes down?0 -
Cons now 1.25-1.27 on Betfair for Newark
Ashcroft leakage??0 -
I don't think so! You could take the 25% tax-free allowance and buy her an annuity with that, of course (or give it to her and she could invest it to get an income). Or, with the latest changes, you could take out more than 25% as a lump sum but you'll be taxed on the excess over 25%, so that's not a whizzo wheeze.Blue_rog said:O/T
Does anyone know the answer to this?
With the changes in pensions coming in, can I buy my wife an annuity with one of my pension pots so that our combined tax liability goes down?0 -
"Head Like A Hole by Nine Inch Nails sounds even better when it is preceded by World of Our Own by Westlife."
I have no idea what that means, but it sounds dreadful so I am rather glad of my ignorance.0 -
O/t but the travails of Good Morning Britain are hilarious
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2645877/Good-Morning-Britain-heading-chop-ratings-slump-not-host-Susanna-Reid-pull-viewers.html0 -
The most marginal seats will tend to be more Labour-inclined than the country as a whole.
Overall, Yougov recently found a 4% lead for Conservative majority/Con-Lib Dem coalition over Labour majority/Lab-Lib Dem coalition.0 -
Blair isn't seeking the EU Presidency.
Is he just waiting to be persuaded?
With a hat tip to the writers of Yes Minister
While he does not seek the office, he has pledged himself to the service of his continent, and that should his colleagues persuade him that that is the best way he can serve, he might reluctantly have to accept the responsibility, whatever his personal wishes might be.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/02/uk-create-manifesto-change-europe-commission-tony-blair0 -
Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.0
-
Correct. As Anthony Wells pointed out, the marginals polling was pretty much in line with the underlying polling at the time. Unsurprisingly, therefore, the majority of these most-marginal seats "fell" to Labour, and respondents in them favoured a Labour-led government.Sean_F said:The most marginal seats will tend to be more Labour-inclined than the country as a whole.
Overall, Yougov recently found a 4% lead for Conservative majority/Con-Lib Dem coalition over Labour majority/Lab-Lib Dem coalition.
The betting (and various models) are all anticipating swingback over the next year.0 -
I think it's more a case of Blair realising that (1) he is even less likely to be asked than last time and (2) he quite likes those fat fees from dodgy governments and the like that he would have to give up if he was President of the Council.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Blair isn't seeking the EU Presidency.
Is he just waiting to be persuaded?0 -
Given that most pensioners have pensions not much above £11,500, it's highly unlikely their income tax rate would increase by half.Richard_Nabavi said:
I suspect pensioners would be less keen on the idea of their income tax rate increasing by half, though, especially since they were conned by successive government into thinking that National Insurance was national insurance.rcs1000 said:
Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.isam said:
The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax freeMaxPB said:Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958
I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.
In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.0 -
First point taken, thanks. And second too (excepting areas where there is a real Scottish impact, of course, such as, say, UK wide standards/specialist services, but I assume we'd agree on that anyway.)Richard_Nabavi said:
But the budget is set in the Budget, so even in the narrowest faked-up Barnett argument sense, a Westminster bill relating to education or the NHS in England does not affect Scotland. How NHS England wants to organise itself or spend the budget allocated by the Chancellor is completely irrelevant to Scottish voters.Carnyx said:I beg to differ. A budgetary change is a change even if it does not affect the total sum by a lot - many's a mickle maks a muckle or, Anglice, it all adds up.
But I have no disagreement at all about the impropriety of voting on non-budgetary issues (usually - there may be some genuine cases where there are problems affecting Scotland).
What I am actually trying to find out is whether such voting IS a problem, and whether a reasonably impartial analysis has been published.
We still don't seem to have any clear indication of how often Scots and Welsh MPs (inevitably mainly Labour, and a few LD) actually vote on truly English-only matters. The four major votes - and I have now been reminded of the NHS foundation trusts vote - under Blair in 2003-4 seem to be the main recent 'scandals', but these were cases where the absolute majority depended on non-English MPs. This is not the same thing as using Scots and Welsh MPs to help boost one's vote routinely, which it would have made life easier for Labour even for English-only votes. But what really surprised me in the refs I put out earlier was the :consensus that it was less of a problem than the potential cures: English parliament, disfranchising the Scots and Welsh by reducing MPs disproportionately (which raises issues of their voting in foreign policy and war), defining English-only votes, and reorganising the financial setup. I can see why so many PBers think it a mess!
0 -
It would hit the middle class pretty hard. Given there is a diminishing marginal return in the utility of money, I think a progressive income tax of at least two bands is better for the country as a whole.rcs1000 said:
Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.isam said:
The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax freeMaxPB said:Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958
I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.
In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.0 -
-
Whilst I like the idea of flat income tax with a high starting point and no allowances, I think to lump national insurance into income tax is to go the wrong way.Richard_Nabavi said:
I suspect pensioners would be less keen on the idea of their income tax rate increasing by half, though, especially since they were conned by successive government into thinking that National Insurance was national insurance.rcs1000 said:
Which, by the way, I think is an excellent policy. Of course, in light of inflation, etc., you would probably want to move the tax free allowance up to £15k. I would also suspect you'd need to be at 33% on all above that level.isam said:
The scrapping of NI from the last manifesto seems to be a favourite on here this morning.. it was that part of UKIPs old tax policy that lefties ignored when they bang on about the flat tax hurting the lowest paid. It was a flat tax of 31% with no NI and the first £11,500 tax freeMaxPB said:Hmm, so UKIP are parking their tanks on Labour's lawn.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27654958
I expect railway renationalisation to be on the UKIP agenda as well.
In this way you massively reduce the cost of tax collection, you also reduce the scope for tax evasion, and attract some tax exiles.
My preferred option would be to split NI into two hypothecated taxes, and National Health Charge and a Welfare Charge the taxes would be set annually to cover the cost of the NHS and the welfare bill. By all means have them banded with a low start point (so as many as possible are paying in) and progressively higher rates depending on income. All other taxes and duties currently used to part fund the NHS and Welfare should be reduced or eliminated accordingly.0 -
I find Susanna rather foxy although I'd never watch a TV programme on that basis.ToryJim said:O/t but the travails of Good Morning Britain are hilarious
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2645877/Good-Morning-Britain-heading-chop-ratings-slump-not-host-Susanna-Reid-pull-viewers.html
Probably I have watched three TV programmes in total in the last 15 years and I really don;t miss it.
0 -
0
-
Head Like A Hole is one of the finest tracks of all time, from one of the finest albums of all time.HurstLlama said:"Head Like A Hole by Nine Inch Nails sounds even better when it is preceded by World of Our Own by Westlife."
I have no idea what that means, but it sounds dreadful so I am rather glad of my ignorance.
Here's the video.
www.youtube.com/watch?v=ao-Sahfy7Hg
Westlife's World of Our Own is the antonym of Head Like A Hole
Judge for yourself
www.youtube.com/watch?v=Jal-vzO8bVE0 -
"Britain has a great opportunity to lead a debate and build alliances among heads of government on the European council to create a long term "manifesto for change" that can end the cynicism and rejection of the European Union."Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Blair isn't seeking the EU Presidency.
Is he just waiting to be persuaded?
With a hat tip to the writers of Yes Minister
While he does not seek the office, he has pledged himself to the service of his continent, and that should his colleagues persuade him that that is the best way he can serve, he might reluctantly have to accept the responsibility, whatever his personal wishes might be.
http://www.theguardian.com/politics/2014/jun/02/uk-create-manifesto-change-europe-commission-tony-blair
Says the gullible chap who handed over £billions for zero change at all - 'Manifesto' my foot.0 -
If we're talking about Blair as EU President, we should remember's Hague's very funny speech on Gordon's European Nightmare from a few years ago
It even had the Labour benches rolling in the aisles
www.youtube.com/watch?v=l6Cj1b-rp1E0 -
FPT
Morris_Dancer said:
Mr. Carnyx, pish, tosh, balderdash and piffle!
Englishmen are charged to go to Scottish universities, whereas Frenchmen and Germans are not. This occurs because of Scottish votes cast on a matter which did not affect Scotland (and the vile SNP want to maintain this anti-English approach even if independence is achieved).
MD, absolute and utter anti - Scottish bollocks , Scottish students are charged to go to English universities, there are none so blind as those who will not see. Vile UK nationalists penalise Scottish students and demand we give them a free education out of the miserly budget we get allocated out of our revenue, get a grip on reality.0 -
Maybe. I just couldn't resist the urge to get one of my favourite Yes Minister quotes in.Neil said:
I think it's more a case of Blair realising that (1) he is even less likely to be asked than last time and (2) he quite likes those fat fees from dodgy governments and the like that he would have to give up if he was President of the Council.Hertsmere_Pubgoer said:Blair isn't seeking the EU Presidency.
Is he just waiting to be persuaded?
0 -
Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.
Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.0 -
Talking of polling it is now more than 2 weeks since the last Scottish Indy poll. Is that not bizarre? I realise that most Scottish media are on their uppers but surely someone is interested?
It is strange that the start of the official campaign was allowed to come and go without a poll. I would be interested if anyone has heard any rumours of one coming up.0 -
Cameron's not scared of Miliband. He's scared of Farage.FrankBooth said:Just caught up with the previous thread. All about Ed and his problems on television. It does beg the question, if Ed is so useless, weird and unappealing on TV, why is Cameron trying to hide away from tv debates? What sort of election campaign are we going to get? Does he just want to hide behind the Tories' financial advantage and just have a mass advertising campaign? The TV companies need to be bold and threaten to empty chair him.
0 -
MD, rubbish , they are treated as English students which is exactly what they are and exactly what Scottish students get treated as in England.Morris_Dancer said:Mr. Eagles, seen it before, but that speech is rather super.
Mr. G, Scots going to English universities are treated the same as English students. Scottish, French, German students going to a Scottish university do not have to pay, English students do. The two situations are utterly incomparable, except to draw a stark contrast between two completely different scenarios.0
