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The great vacillator: Starmer needs to find some backbone – politicalbetting.com
The great vacillator: Starmer needs to find some backbone – politicalbetting.com
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On the other hand, do NOT buy the argument that Starmer is frit of the likes of the BJ Crowd. A guy who once prosecuted the IRA? Versus a guy who right now looks like he couldn't savage a sheep deed or alive. Naw.
As for strategy, isn't Ken Starmer's somewhat reminiscent of Joe Biden's? Based on somewhat similar situations and calculus: challenging a charismatic, bombastic egoist incumbent from none-to-solid perch as leader of a diverse, divided following still in semi-shock from its last shellacking. At a time of unprecedented national crisis (combination of Corn Laws and the Black Death in modern dress) AND when the incumbent is falling over himself and fecking up royally just about everywhere all the time.
So maybe watchful waiting is NOT such a bad strategy in 2020 on either side of the Atlantic, and my side of the Pacific
AND perhaps the public WANTS a spell of "normalcy" as one candidate most memorably said 100 years ago in 1920, in the aftermath of world war AND pandemic, on the way to his own landslide presidential election victory.
https://www.stuff.co.nz/national/politics
"The final tally of advance votes sat at 1,976,996, after 233,575 people cast their vote on Friday.
That is well in excess of the total number of advance votes cast in previous elections. Last election 1.2 million votes were cast in advance and in 2014 the total was 717,000 advance votes.
Just 334,000 votes were cast in advance in 2011.
The final tally represents 76 per cent of the total number of votes cast in the 2017 election and 57 per cent of the enrolled population."
. . . . .
"The surge in popularity of early voting means there could be a good indication of the overall election result within an hour or so of polls closing at 7pm on Saturday.
But the results of votes in closely contested and potentially key electorates will take a few hours longer, and preliminary results from the two referendums won’t be published until October 30.
Under New Zealand’s Mixed Member Proportional system, with the party vote deciding how many seats each party gets, trends that show up fairly early on during vote counting tend to give a good idea of the balance of power in Parliament."
Schoolchildren are being left outside in the rain and sitting in freezing classrooms because of unclear Covid advice from Government, parents say
https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-8848303/Schoolchildren-left-outside-rain-unclear-Covid-advice.html
Here is an earlier TES (Times Education Supplement) story with none of the Mail's intrusive video adverts.
https://www.tes.com/news/coronavirus-open-windows-leave-teachers-freezing-winter-looms
The prime minister avoided a criminal investigation after the police watchdog found no evidence that he influenced the payment of thousands of pounds of public money to Acuri, or secured her participation in foreign trade trips that he led.
Arcuri admitted to having an affair with Johnson while he was with his then wife Marina Wheeler, according to the Daily Mail. “I think that goes without saying,” she reportedly said when asked if they had an affair. “It’s pretty much out there … But I’m not going to talk about it.”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-york-north-yorkshire-54551789
Having made enquiries based on suggestions last week, I find that school budgets are already alarmingly close to empty. Heat curtains, extra heaters and even higher fuel bills are going to be problematic.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
Starmer has ended up looking a bit sidelined this week. The government's argument with Burnham completely undermines his leader's criticism of the government.
https://coronavirus-staging.data.gov.uk/details/cases?areaType=utla&areaName=Manchester
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQo3XMpwwzA
https://www.youtube.com/onenewsnz/live
https://www.newshub.co.nz/home/politics/2020/10/nz-election-2020-results-as-they-happen.html
https://electionresults.govt.nz/
Thanks
DC
It was great to see Burnham taking it to Boris at the end of the week. It was great to see Starmer setting the agenda at the start of the week. Both working in the national interest taking on a weak, demonstrably incompetent government.
More please.
And if I haven’t, how many others who don’t follow the news closely will have heard from Starmer?
That doesn't look great to me.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/blogs-the-papers-54533339
Of course the Government, being this Govt, then made an entire mess of responding to this by calling him an “opportunist” whilst elements of it were briefing half the newspapers that they were on the verge of introducing a short national circuit breaker.
You know you have a nebbish on your hands when that is being bigged up as evidence of political colossusdom.
My understanding is this suggestion has not yet been adopted outside Northern Ireland although Drakeford is considering it for Wales.
So I can’t see that he’s exactly ‘upended the consensus’ by supporting it.
As far as SKS is concerned, as others have said, he's not what you might call charismatic. More like Biden, and if the latter wins (please, please, God) then I suspect the sigh of relief will spread over here.
Re. the kerfuffle yesterday, I suggest it's much more important to look west than east. What will shape Boris Johnson's next 4 years is not what is happening with Europe but with the US. If Trump loses, Johnson (and Farage) are more isolated in the world than ever. CNN have a very good piece out this morning on this:
https://edition.cnn.com/2020/10/17/politics/special-relationship-election-analysis-gbr-intl/index.html
But I’m not convinced that he’s resonating with the wider public. He doesn’t seem to have Blair’s gift of quick, simple phrases that describe his policies in a way people really get and news broadcasts want to put out. Well, fair enough, most people don’t.
But at the same time, I don’t get the feeling he’s making a great impression as a political leader in his own right. That won’t matter if he’s up against Doris, but there are Tories out there he would find more of a challenge.
That he is not allowing himself and Labour to be drawn into increasingly desperate Tory attempts to ignite a culture war is entirely positive.
Starmer has been absent from the debate this week which has seen Burnham dominating headlines
Indeed David's article is spot on
Which I guess is why Sir Keir Starmer is leader of the Labour Party and David Herdson is, well, what exactly?
That has dominated the headlines and it was fortunate for Starmer following the resignation of seven of his front benchers which in normal times would have been the big story of the week
But here's the thing: Joe Biden is about to win a landslide against an incumbent President.
Why so? Because the last thing the public needs or wants right now are 'charismatic' politicians. The people are tiring of them. This pandemic requires a steady hand at the tiller. Someone who listens to the science and acts accordingly. Joe Biden, Keir Starmer fit the bill perfectly.
The right kind of people for these febrile times.
As Boris demonstrated in London against Brown in the late 00s, in British politics today the mayors have a critical role to play.
There therefore is some hope that they will be confident to declare a half term circuit breaker as "effective" and lift it at its scheduled time. (although the bad news for the longer term is that this will convince them that it has been effective and they will be tempted to try it again in future)
The virus infection rate will continue to grow through the upcoming winter. It just doesn't happen in a perfect linear pattern.
Nov 3rd is going to re-shape Britain.
We need tougher measures to contain this pandemic, not weaker ones. Burnham would have done better to hammer home the point which was buried deep within his anti-Conservative rhetoric, that we require a national circuit breaker.
Mandatory face masks outdoors & indoors. No exceptions. You leave your house even to walk your dog: face mask. End of.
Borders sealed with mandatory quarantine on new arrivals.
Compulsory contact tracing.
Enforced isolation and quarantine.
Instead, we piss around at the margins.
Also hospitals are always full at this time of year (with flu cases) .This is not novel to 2020 winter season. It woudl help if the media and givernment get less obsessed bu coivd-19 and maybe quote cancer deaths for a month to get things into persepctive
Fancy a wager?
Biden is going to win a landslide. I've never been so certain of anything political in my life.
Trafalgar Group Trump +4
Opinion Savvy Clinton +2
Quinnipiac Tie
CBS News/YouGov Tie
Remington Research Trump +3
Gravis* Clinton +1
CNN/ORC Clinton +1
RESULT Trump + 1.2
So, Quinnipiac and YouGov were closest percentage wise in Florida, with Remington being closest while also making a correct call. This year Quinnipiac have Biden 11% up. I don’t think Remington or YouGov have polled there yet. On your own logic, then, Biden wins Florida - something I don’t think will happen but consistent with following the most accurate available pollster from 2016. Florida’s 29 EC votes more than offset Michigan and Wisconsin
Don’t get me wrong, I’m not discounting Trafalgar, but you cherry pick data from just them. Trafalgar were 2.7% out in Trump’s favour in Florida but this year have him up by only 2% now. If they are the same percentage out as 2016 then Biden wins Florida. Same in Michigan where they have Trump 1% up but overstated him 1.7% in 2016.
That’s why we are all sceptical of you @HYUFD . You pick old poll that suits you you disregard the data within those very same polls that doesn’t fit your argument. The cherry picked data you yourself cite shows Trafalgar overstating Trump regularly by, on average, roughly 2%. Which is more than the 1% they have him ahead in Michigan - as I say they overstated him there in 2016 by 1.7%. You also disregard your favourite pollster’s latest Wisconsin prediction of Biden by 3%.
Yes, Trump may yet win, no one with an understanding of probability denies that. But you have no evidence to persuade sceptics to shift the odds. Trafalgar, overall, are not quite as good a predictor of future events as Paul the Octopus, who called 85% of matches at the 2010 World Cup correctly. Trafalgar called 7 out of 9 state races correctly in 2016 - or roughly 77%. Then again, as you said the other day, probabilty/odds are just a cop out. Which begs the question - what you are doing posting so often on a gambling site?
I suspect many Tories view Starmer with a similar disdain to how some of us on the left viewed Major before 1992. For the first time of asking Major stood on his soap box and for those without strident views either way, he was just the ticket. Starmer could be similar.
As for your withering criticism of anything non-Johnsonian over the last weeks, I suspect in days rather than weeks, both you and Johnson will be eating your words
I don't really see it. Kamala probably never saw the funny side of the pillarbox stuff.
What is the governments covid objective and where’s the plan to achieve it?
What is the governments post transition objective and where’s the plan...
How is Sunak father in laws funds doing at present and similar ‘business people’ close to the government are doing?
Total freedom. No masks. No fear.
And for those who bleat that New Zealand has only 4.5 m people, it's just a question of scale. We're an island and so are they. We could have done it.
It's laughable that Herdson criticises Sir Keir for the very thing that so bedevils Johnson: dithering, vacillating, rudderless, incompetence on a scale not seen in this country for over a century. Jeez, Boris has made Theresa May look like Maggie.
People will see that and will live like hermits without instruction. A de facto lockdown might be preferable to a de jure one on the grounds of personal liberty, but in economic terms there's little difference. In health terms the differences are very large, of course.
This is why zero covid is my preference. We have the chance of reaching an after, with domestic freedom at least, without being reliant on the uncertainty of a vaccine.
As always with the Next PM and Next Tory Leader markets, lay the favourite at any given time.
What cunning plan does he have to restore his fortunes?
https://twitter.com/GdnPolitics/status/1317350893273018370
Also these types of viruses will come every few years . If we have set such a draconian precedent now then businesses will never invest knowing they will be subject to government ordered closure in a few years - The overreaction to covid-19 (with no stated realistic objective in sight ) is far far more damaging to society than the illness itself
Face masks are a good idea though, everyone wear one when you leave the house.
Slightly OT, and while I hasten to add that I don't read it, has anyone noticed how the Daily Star really really hates Cummings? Unflattering pics of him seem to be on their fromt page (which, I hasten to add, I glimpse at the supermarket, of course) weekly. Previous to the Barnard Castle Eye Test (great 80s indie band name!) they didn't seem to give much of a monkeys about politics.
https://www.dailystar.co.uk/news/latest-news/your-free-complete-council-tax-22847349
Why do people seem to think that it's a case of containing the virus OR helping the economy. If the virus runs rampant people will die in great numbers AND the economy will suffer.
https://hauteliving.com/wp-content/uploads/2018/01/1510102703817.jpg
Looking in the cabinet you have some decent supporting pieces on the board.
A couple of weeks ago you had Milliband doing a good Hague impression in the commons. A useful ally.
Nandy is strong and will get stronger.
Ashworth owns Hancock (admittedly not hard) and Allin-Khan is a strong performer
Rayner in my view has potential. She gave a good deputy pmqs when Starmer was stuck at home.
Others are quieter during the pandemic, the jury is out on Dodds as shadow chancellor. Either way far better than what preceded it and I expect to see a few more new and maybe some old faces in the months to come.