p.s. but scanning through David's piece it's so wide of the mark as to be risible. This is not a time for grandstanding: sorry Andy Burnham, but you're wrong. No one trying to score political points, or being seen to do so too obviously, will ever be forgiven in the midst of a deathly virus.
Which I guess is why Sir Keir Starmer is leader of the Labour Party and David Herdson is, well, what exactly?
Everything johnson does is grandstanding aimed for maximum impact for that minute with no concept of joined up thought and strategy, and we waste time talking about Starmer and Burnham!
Well... whose job is it to expose, counter and ultimately defeat Johnson and his antics? The building is ablaze, and people are irrelevantly droning on about the fire brigade!
The only people who can get rid of Johnson over the next four years are Tory MPs. If they don’t, I am pretty confident that Starmer will at the next GE. However, the more interesting bit is whether he’d defeat an alternative. For me, Sunak is becoming less impressive with every week that passes and I’m not sure who else there is.
I am not sure Starmer needs to be particularly brilliant in the face of the 1930s style economic model that is already pulling into the station. I understand that many commentators on here are absolving Johnson and the Conservatives from any errors for what comes next, but history tells us, fairly, or otherwise the incumbent gets the blame.
I have been wrong before about the Conservatives ability to weather economic storms that would have done for Labour, but this time I cannot see it. From my own experience I have been worked off my feet post pandemic, but the penny dropped this week that this is all work paid for up front pre-March. There is virtually no new work coming in. One can blame the pandemic, Brexit or Andy Burnham, and explain it is not Boris Johnson and the Conservatives fault (which may be true) but rest assured this recession will be brutal and those in the driving seat will cop for the crash.
This *should* be the deciding factor of the next election. Redcar didn't vote for the people who shut their steelworks because they are masochists. They didn't vote Brexit because they want a patriotic hungry stand against an evil EU who has stopped food fuel and pharmaceuticals crossing the border. They voted Brexit and then Tory because for decades the area has slipped backwards without much focus or interest from the capital.
Lots of commentary after the election about the Tories being loaned these votes and that is true. They won't vote Tory if Brexit and the Pandemic has brought their town to ruin no matter what southern you-know-nothing Jon-Snow commentators like HYUFD think. But unless Labour can offer something else they won't vote at all - or will vote for a more radical and dangerous "solution" to their problems.
Starmer's problem isn't his cardboard nature. Its that he literally has no alternative ideas that can gain a consensus in his party never mind the country.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
The problem that many Tory posters on here (I would name him but it would sound like I am developing an obsession) is that they assume that Brexit is all voters who voted leave care about. Patriotic folk in the North were very pleased about the Falklands War too. Didn't turn much of the Red Wall blue even in 1983 given the economic effects of Thatherism in the North. Gratitude for Brexit won't help Johnson if he pushes the North even further back.
Slightly OT, and while I hasten to add that I don't read it, has anyone noticed how the Daily Star really really hates Cummings? Unflattering pics of him seem to be on their fromt page (which, I hasten to add, I glimpse at the supermarket, of course) weekly. Previous to the Barnard Castle Eye Test (great 80s indie band name!) they didn't seem to give much of a monkeys about politics.
Ooh Aah Daily Star and its readers don't care about politics. But apparently their readers do care about things which are absurdly unfair and hypocritical. They are railing on Cummings because he is the figurehead of a corrupt do-what-we-like government and its don't care about politics do care about being taken for fools.
I know that the Tories won an 80 seat majority. But they've already lost swathes of the voting blue collar base that delivered that majority. And without a rapid about turn in both policy and humility they won't win them back.
For better or worse, Starmer is rigidly following a long game strategy:
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick. 2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress. 3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
For better or worse, Starmer is rigidly following a long game strategy:
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick. 2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress. 3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
Yes - as someone looking in very much from the outside that is the impression I get.
For better or worse, Starmer is rigidly following a long game strategy:
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick. 2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress. 3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
It’s exciting in a John Smith kind of way. I quite like the feeling that Labour has an electable leader. Progress.
Somewhat odd timing for an article in a week where Starmer led the news.
Although David might answer he’s supposed to be leading the Labour Party and the Opoosition.
Starmer led all three this week.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I do hope so.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
He is just another establishment empty suit. Millionaire self seeking useless arsehole who does not even have the guts to be a nasty Tory.
This *should* be the deciding factor of the next election. Redcar didn't vote for the people who shut their steelworks because they are masochists. They didn't vote Brexit because they want a patriotic hungry stand against an evil EU who has stopped food fuel and pharmaceuticals crossing the border. They voted Brexit and then Tory because for decades the area has slipped backwards without much focus or interest from the capital.
Lots of commentary after the election about the Tories being loaned these votes and that is true. They won't vote Tory if Brexit and the Pandemic has brought their town to ruin no matter what southern you-know-nothing Jon-Snow commentators like HYUFD think. But unless Labour can offer something else they won't vote at all - or will vote for a more radical and dangerous "solution" to their problems.
Starmer's problem isn't his cardboard nature. Its that he literally has no alternative ideas that can gain a consensus in his party never mind the country.
I know Channel 4 News has a left wing slant but you're being very unfair to Jon Snow there.
That may not all have been Starmer’s fault but nor can he escape blame.
Excellent thread as usual from Mr Herdson - although I fear he's too generous in the above assessment - it was Starmer's fault - attempting to triangulate Islington Remainia with Redcar Brexitania - with the resultant mess that pleased nobody.
Somewhat odd timing for an article in a week where Starmer led the news.
Although David might answer he’s supposed to be leading the Labour Party and the Opoosition.
Starmer led all three this week.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I do hope so.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
I can’t see how you can see that when Starmer broke the consensus on Covid and turned the political agenda upside down. Honestly hard to remember a LoO having a greater impact.
You misunderstand. Not having followed the news closely, I have not heard any of that. In fact, to be truthful I don’t know what you’re talking about. What has he done and how has he done it?
And if I haven’t, how many others who don’t follow the news closely will have heard from Starmer?
He said we needed a national circuit break just after Johnson said we needed local tiers, true. The impact of this is rather exaggerated in the post you are replying to.
I've not had Pb on 24/7 recently. Mr Z. Did you get your test result in reasonable time?
As far as SKS is concerned, as others have said, he's not what you might call charismatic. More like Biden, and if the latter wins (please, please, God) then I suspect the sigh of relief will spread over here.
Similarly, if Johnson is still leader of the Tories at the next election I will be voting for a Labour Party led by Starmer.
But I’m not convinced that he’s resonating with the wider public. He doesn’t seem to have Blair’s gift of quick, simple phrases that describe his policies in a way people really get and news broadcasts want to put out. Well, fair enough, most people don’t.
But at the same time, I don’t get the feeling he’s making a great impression as a political leader in his own right. That won’t matter if he’s up against Doris, but there are Tories out there he would find more of a challenge.
Starmer is no Blair. He is a modern John Smith. This is a good thing, especially after Johnson. For me the teams the thing, what marks this opposition out compared to the previous one is that the team is able to have an impact.
Now you're pushing it. The only way his 'team' have been having much of an impact this week is by resigning over various things.
Burnham? A good Labour mayor. I heard he made one or two headlines.
As Boris demonstrated in London against Brown in the late 00s, in British politics today the mayors have a critical role to play.
Burnham (and Khan) aren't in Starmer's "team". They are all acting on their own and for their own reasons.
Well that is your view. Either way we can rejoice that Labour is taking on this incompetent government.
Contrary to the populist 'King of the North' twitterati orgasm, I don't think Andy Burnham got it right at all. He had a point about the north being treated separately but the rest of it was utterly tiresome grandstanding of all the wrong kind.
We need tougher measures to contain this pandemic, not weaker ones. Burnham would have done better to hammer home the point which was buried deep within his anti-Conservative rhetoric, that we require a national circuit breaker.
You can't contain a virus because as soon as you come out of a lockdown or circuit breaker it will come back - Unless you feel it is acceptable to force people to live as hermits for years and the complete social and economic collapse that will bring.The government need to be less arrogant (and admit they cannot defeat it) and admit it is something to live with - live we did with flu up to last year - after all the death rate of flu and covid-19 are not that far apart . We are treating covid-19 like it is plague.
Also hospitals are always full at this time of year (with flu cases) .This is not novel to 2020 winter season. It woudl help if the media and givernment get less obsessed bu coivd-19 and maybe quote cancer deaths for a month to get things into persepctive
If flu was as contagious and had as few treatment options as Covid-19 then it would be as bad. Why do people seem to think that it's a case of containing the virus OR helping the economy. If the virus runs rampant people will die in great numbers AND the economy will suffer.
In general the people are thick as mince, the dullards only understand going to the pub/emmerdale/football/nail bars and eating kebabs/fast food, anything else strains their pea brains.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Is that a preview of the 2024 or 2028 UK general election? I wouldn’t be surprised if the greens grew in the UK. Once the sun sets on this administration, the Tories really need to split into a “new Conservative” party and the populist nationalist we have leading it today. They are two diametrically opposite ideologies.
For better or worse, Starmer is rigidly following a long game strategy:
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick. 2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress. 3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
It’s exciting in a John Smith kind of way. I quite like the feeling that Labour has an electable leader. Progress.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Mr. (Miss?) Rose, we're a densely populated island nation. New Zealand is sparsely populated. We're within swimming distance of the nearest continent. They are thousands of miles away.
Pointing out facts regarding the wildly different demographics and location of the United Kingdom and New Zealand is not bleating. It's useful and relevant information.
Unless you're using an a posteriori approach and have already determined the conclusion you desire.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Trump has been backed, so what has happened? Nothing interesting emerged from the town hall meetings held by the two candidates. It might be a GOP dirty trick to create a narrative of momentum for Trump (and see the Trafalgar posts from @rcs1000 in particular on the last thread if you think such tricks are beyond them).
But most likely is reaction to the Hunter Biden story, amplified by Twitter and Facebook's reaction. And by reaction I mean overreaction since the allegations are meh, and it might yet turn into another tale of dirty tricks.
Somewhat odd timing for an article in a week where Starmer led the news.
Although David might answer he’s supposed to be leading the Labour Party and the Opoosition.
Starmer led all three this week.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I do hope so.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
I can’t see how you can see that when Starmer broke the consensus on Covid and turned the political agenda upside down. Honestly hard to remember a LoO having a greater impact.
You misunderstand. Not having followed the news closely, I have not heard any of that. In fact, to be truthful I don’t know what you’re talking about. What has he done and how has he done it?
And if I haven’t, how many others who don’t follow the news closely will have heard from Starmer?
He said we needed a national circuit break just after Johnson said we needed local tiers, true. The impact of this is rather exaggerated in the post you are replying to.
I've not had Pb on 24/7 recently. Mr Z. Did you get your test result in reasonable time?
As far as SKS is concerned, as others have said, he's not what you might call charismatic. More like Biden, and if the latter wins (please, please, God) then I suspect the sigh of relief will spread over here.
Similarly, if Johnson is still leader of the Tories at the next election I will be voting for a Labour Party led by Starmer.
But I’m not convinced that he’s resonating with the wider public. He doesn’t seem to have Blair’s gift of quick, simple phrases that describe his policies in a way people really get and news broadcasts want to put out. Well, fair enough, most people don’t.
But at the same time, I don’t get the feeling he’s making a great impression as a political leader in his own right. That won’t matter if he’s up against Doris, but there are Tories out there he would find more of a challenge.
Starmer is no Blair. He is a modern John Smith. This is a good thing, especially after Johnson. For me the teams the thing, what marks this opposition out compared to the previous one is that the team is able to have an impact.
Now you're pushing it. The only way his 'team' have been having much of an impact this week is by resigning over various things.
Burnham? A good Labour mayor. I heard he made one or two headlines.
As Boris demonstrated in London against Brown in the late 00s, in British politics today the mayors have a critical role to play.
Burnham (and Khan) aren't in Starmer's "team". They are all acting on their own and for their own reasons.
Well that is your view. Either way we can rejoice that Labour is taking on this incompetent government.
I'd like to be as optimistic as you but when I think of the Labour Party I can hardly name a prominent member beyond Starmer. The party feels hollowed out. I saw Raynor the other day She makes Watson sound like a Colossus and as for the shadow chancellor.....Where are the big hitters?
Roger, I suspect none of this matters.
Conservative posters on here are convinced once the health issues around the pandemic are over, it returns to business as usual and the charismatic, Johnson, or Sunak, or even the agreeable Tugenhadt will sail into Downing St. clutching a handsome majority.
We are staring down the barrel of a between-the-wars world depression. How do the Conservatives successfully insulate the UK and themselves against this?
Every now and again I get taken in by the more charming and lucid Conservative posters/commentators like Mr Herdson. Then reality bites and I realise the Conservative Party is in the same bad place as the rest of us.
For better or worse, Starmer is rigidly following a long game strategy:
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick. 2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress. 3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
It’s exciting in a John Smith kind of way. I quite like the feeling that Labour has an electable leader. Progress.
Now you are sounding like Labour's HYFUD
Ooo, high praise. I wonder what that makes you. The SNP’s Ave It?
Mr. (Miss?) Rose, we're a densely populated island nation. New Zealand is sparsely populated. We're within swimming distance of the nearest continent. They are thousands of miles away.
Pointing out facts regarding the wildly different demographics and location of the United Kingdom and New Zealand is not bleating. It's useful and relevant information.
Unless you're using an a posteriori approach and have already determined the conclusion you desire.
You can swim to Africa? You clearly can’t swim to Europe.
On abstaining etc; I agree that this is generally unimpressive, but at the moment the great voting public are in no mood to be interested in libertarian issues of any sort - they are queueing up to tell pollsters that we should all be locked up with a red cross painted on our nailed up doors while we wait to die in an orderly manner.
Given that SKS, whom God preserve, is following a leader no sane person would allow the live in a free country let alone lead it, his first priority must be distance from the loony left, anti semitism, and all the other baggage of Leninism.
Labour remain acutely vulnerable to attack. Neutrality and a policy of saying the government is broadly right in principle over the crises (ie we musn't all die of Covid, Brexit shall happen) but is sub optimal in implementation is the best way of avoiding the perennial attack of being profligate supporters of leftie lunacy.
Attack on Tory competence feels at the moment like a permanent free hit. SKS will do well to stick to it. He isn't 20 points ahead in the polls because of Corbyn; nothing to do with now.
SKS has had one piece of luck: at this moment Tory references to Labour's magic money tree etc would be met with ribald mirth. That does not happen often. The last time Labour looked better on economics than the Tories they swept the country.
I've friends in New Zealand. They run naked around the fields: that's a metaphor by the way
Total freedom. No masks. No fear.
And for those who bleat that New Zealand has only 4.5 m people, it's just a question of scale. We're an island and so are they. We could have done it.
It's laughable that Herdson criticises Sir Keir for the very thing that so bedevils Johnson: dithering, vacillating, rudderless, incompetence on a scale not seen in this country for over a century. Jeez, Boris has made Theresa May look like Maggie.
I'm assuming to do that we would have had to introduce draconian measures in February including quarantine of all half term visitors to Italy. It may be New Zealand has got it right particularly if an effective vaccine becomes available soon or it may be they have pushed the problem down the road. We shall see.
Somewhat odd timing for an article in a week where Starmer led the news.
Although David might answer he’s supposed to be leading the Labour Party and the Opoosition.
Starmer led all three this week.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I do hope so.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
He is just another establishment empty suit. Millionaire self seeking useless arsehole who does not even have the guts to be a nasty Tory.
That's more than dubious. If he has become a millionare it'd have to have been through working as a charity's legal officer (salary currently circa £30k per annum), then in mostly Legal Aid cases at the bar (standard fees currently about £250 per hour), and then as DPP (salary roughly £225k p.a.). There are be a lot of people in the legal profession who would be interested to know, Malc, how that would lead him to be a millionaire. Can you let me know as I appear to have made some catastrophic career choces in that respect. He's certainly not rich via his nurse mother and toolmaker father.
Starmer could have become a millionaire, easily, by going into a far more remunerative areas of law, like tax or Chancery, or by joining a Magic Circle firm. He didn't. Indeed he acted in the McLibel claim for free - which cost him a lot of money and took a lot of guts. He may well have saved a million in assets (his house looks very nice) and thus technically be a millionaire but he's not, by current standards, at all rich.
I'd given up on the Labour Party but Starmer MIGHT tempt me back. We'll see how it goes. Long time to make my mind up.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Mr. Jonathan, you know precisely what I meant. If pedantry about a slightly sleepy phrasing is the greatest criticism you can level at my post then I welcome your acceptance of the rest of it.
Mr. (Miss?) Rose, we're a densely populated island nation. New Zealand is sparsely populated. We're within swimming distance of the nearest continent. They are thousands of miles away.
Pointing out facts regarding the wildly different demographics and location of the United Kingdom and New Zealand is not bleating. It's useful and relevant information.
Unless you're using an a posteriori approach and have already determined the conclusion you desire.
Look at the video feeds or news coverage of the New Zealand election. No masks, no social distancing. Labour landslide. It looks like Britain in 1997.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Trump has been backed, so what has happened? Nothing interesting emerged from the town hall meetings held by the two candidates. It might be a GOP dirty trick to create a narrative of momentum for Trump (and see the Trafalgar posts from @rcs1000 in particular on the last thread if you think such tricks are beyond them).
But most likely is reaction to the Hunter Biden story, amplified by Twitter and Facebook's reaction. And by reaction I mean overreaction since the allegations are meh, and it might yet turn into another tale of dirty tricks.
It's volatile. Yes - those stories move the Betfair needle more than they should. It's all a case of overcorrection for 2016. Remains to be seen whether the pollsters changes are an overcorrection also, or not enough of one, or just right.
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Mr. Jonathan, you know precisely what I meant. If pedantry about a slightly sleepy phrasing is the greatest criticism you can level at my post then I welcome your acceptance of the rest of it.
PB wouldn’t be PB without a bit of pedantry, I am not sure that Boris followed the optimal route for GB. Looking at the current omnishambles another policy would have been better, If we had gone for a NZ strategy, it could barely have ended up any worse.
I've friends in New Zealand. They run naked around the fields: that's a metaphor by the way
Total freedom. No masks. No fear.
And for those who bleat that New Zealand has only 4.5 m people, it's just a question of scale. We're an island and so are they. We could have done it.
It's laughable that Herdson criticises Sir Keir for the very thing that so bedevils Johnson: dithering, vacillating, rudderless, incompetence on a scale not seen in this country for over a century. Jeez, Boris has made Theresa May look like Maggie.
I'm assuming to do that we would have had to introduce draconian measures in February including quarantine of all half term visitors to Italy. It may be New Zealand has got it right particularly if an effective vaccine becomes available soon or it may be they have pushed the problem down the road. We shall see.
The UK's handling of borders has been shambolic - I blame Shapps who persuaded Cabinet that Patel's "quarantine arrivers" would be "bad for business". Initial arrivals from China were quarantined - then they just let it rip. You don't have to look as far as New Zealand to see how it can be done - both Guernsey and the Isle of Man have controlled their borders and fined/imprisoned quarantine breakers - neither have in community transmission and no social distancing or mask wearing.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
So, Covid is out of control, the oven-ready Brexit deal is inedible, another scandal is confirmed in the press and BoZo's chum across the water is heading for defeat.
What cunning plan does he have to restore his fortunes?
Freedland: if Americans repudiate Trump, that would suggest the reassertion of a political rule that seemed to have been shredded in 2016: that there are some things voters will not tolerate. That incompetence, corruption and dishonesty exact a price. The restoration of that standard would not be kind to Johnson. And a defeated Trump would rob the prime minister of what has been a useful, if largely unspoken, argument: no matter how bad Johnson has been, no matter how inept his handling of the pandemic, at least he’s not been as awful as that man in the White House. If Trump is beaten, that handy comparator will become unavailable – along with the relative reassurance it provided
Spain also now has more deaths per head than the UK, as does Belgium, Peru, Brazil etc not just the US and France now has had more cases than the UK too
For better or worse, Starmer is rigidly following a long game strategy:
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick. 2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress. 3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
So either he is boring, or he is being temporarily boring for strategic purposes. Only time will tell, but I find that starting with Brown the utterly worst case view one can take of a major party leader at the start of their tenure, has been spot on.
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Not at winning elections, he isn't.
Let's look at that. He won against Livingston (twice - in 2008 with the Livingtone antisemitism scandals beginning to emerge) and Corbyn ('nuff said). In 2016 he "won" against the worst campaign, that of Remain, I can remember. It could be argued he hasn't really been tested.
He was Mayor for eight years and, beyond the eponymous bikes, it's hard to think of a signature policy he'll be remembered for. The Mayorality is not really all that powerful - at least compared to similar positions in Paris and NYC.
Now he has a far more onerous executive position the Emperor, and his lack of clothing, is in full and unflattering display.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Indeed. My optimism is less from Starmer becoming Clark Kent than from Trump losing and leaving the Johnsons and his Faragists horribly exposed. Unlike most on here I don't think this government is as loathed as it ought to be
Morning all. Watched the Chicago 7 on Netflicks last night. Well worth a watch. Historical events but very current attitudes and problems with police violence and the use of the criminal justice system for political ends. The best bits for me were the tensions between the different groups of protestors who were alleged to be in a conspiracy together and their different views about how they should argue their cause.
This is where I can claim at least tangential relevance to the topic. At one point Tom Hayden makes the point that confronting authority and showing utter disdain for it was going to lose them elections for the next 50 years. He wants to challenge the system from the inside and was subsequently elected in California. The more Hippy types also made strong points but there is no doubt at all that SKS is a Hayden type: serious, a little dull and absolutely on the inside looking out.
He does not offer inspiration or vision, he offers or at least promises some form of managerial competence. And that might just be enough. I would not write him off yet, not by any means.
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Not at winning elections, he isn't.
Well he hasn't fought one yet as leader, so what a dull comment.
This time around, at least Labour won't be burdened with the leadership millstone that was Jeremy Corbyn.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Clearly a big win for Ardern, 15 years since New Zealand Labour last won most seats in a New Zealand election under Helen Clark, New Zealand First and the Nationals well down from last time but the libertarian ACT and the Greens also up
On topic, a good article from David. The politics of opposition during a national crisis like this was always going to be difficult. There are two decisions the LotO would have to make:
- do I attack the government's policies? - do I attack the government for incompetently executing those policies?
In normal times, the Opposition does both. In a time of national crisis, either can be presented as unpatriotic/playing politics. I think the first is difficult at the moment because the government has actually followed public opinion pretty closely - not doing much till mid-March, then suddenly panicking and locking down, but leaving just enough scope for some normal life to continue, then lightening up over the summer, and now panicking again. Whatever one thinks of that approach, I doubt there were enough people violently unhappy with it to make attacking it a realistic proposition. And it is by definition impossible to attack it in a way that would please both those who want more measures and those who want fewer. Both are probably well represented in the people who Labour needs to win back in 2024.
Which leaves attacking the government for incompetence. I think that was always his best bet, and the government has certainly given him a lot of scope to do so. But it is to some extent priced in from any opposition. And it has a big pitfall too. It is too easily presented as attacking the public sector, Labour's core voters. Avoiding that needs a much nimbler operator than SKS has shown himself to be.
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Not at winning elections, he isn't.
Well he hasn't fought one yet as leader, so what a dull comment.
This time around, at least Labour won't be burdened with the leadership millstone that was Jeremy Corbyn.
I meant that Boris wasn't unequivocally shit at winning elections.
Mr. (Miss?) Rose, we're a densely populated island nation. New Zealand is sparsely populated. We're within swimming distance of the nearest continent. They are thousands of miles away.
Pointing out facts regarding the wildly different demographics and location of the United Kingdom and New Zealand is not bleating. It's useful and relevant information.
Unless you're using an a posteriori approach and have already determined the conclusion you desire.
Look at the video feeds or news coverage of the New Zealand election. No masks, no social distancing. Labour landslide. It looks like Britain in 1997.
New Zealand is one of the most isolated nations and least densely populated nations on earth, basically Wales stuck thousands of miles from anywhere in the south Pacific.
It is a totally different case from the UK which is one of the most densely populated nations on earth and of course Ardern effectively banned all tourism to New Zealand during lockdown making it even more isolated, it has also gone into recession now though clearly New Zealanders overall feel Arden did a good enough job containing Covid to be re elected and given a chance to continue for a second term
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Indeed. My optimism is less from Starmer becoming Clark Kent than from Trump losing and leaving the Johnsons and his Faragists horribly exposed. Unlike most on here I don't think this government is as loathed as it ought to be
You are right, but we are still four years out from a GE, which in itself is worrisome for the nation. Just imagine how much corruption, patronage, nepotism and good old fashioned incompetence will flow under the bridge in that time.
Red Wallers, like the rest of us will be on their knees, whilst Dido Harding, the Directors of Serco, George Osborne (in his role at the BBC) Robert Jenrick and Richard Desmond are still ladelling off the cream.
For better or worse, Starmer is rigidly following a long game strategy:
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick. 2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress. 3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
It’s exciting in a John Smith kind of way. I quite like the feeling that Labour has an electable leader. Progress.
Now you are sounding like Labour's HYFUD
Ooo, high praise. I wonder what that makes you. The SNP’s Ave It?
Bit of green cheese there, one day you may also reach those heady heights, highly unlikely but stranger things have happened.
New Zealand is one of the most isolated nations and least densely populated nations on earth, basically Wales stuck thousands of miles from anywhere in the south Pacific.
Not thousands. The great circle distance between the South Island and Tasmania is about 900 miles.
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Not at winning elections, he isn't.
Well he hasn't fought one yet as leader, so what a dull comment.
This time around, at least Labour won't be burdened with the leadership millstone that was Jeremy Corbyn.
I meant that Boris wasn't unequivocally shit at winning elections.
Boris’ track record of winning elections speaks for itself. He is good at it.
It’s a shame that is as far as it goes. Not only is he impressively incompetent in office, he seems to actively resent having to do the job he was elected to.
Government is such a bore, he’d much rather play the election game, play to the crowd and try to fill some hole in his psyche.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Indeed. My optimism is less from Starmer becoming Clark Kent than from Trump losing and leaving the Johnsons and his Faragists horribly exposed. Unlike most on here I don't think this government is as loathed as it ought to be
I am with you Roger, they should have been tarred and feathered by now.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
Based on what? Trafalgar were exposed yesterday as charlatans by Robert so disregarding their polls completely what evidence are you working from?
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Not at winning elections, he isn't.
Well he hasn't fought one yet as leader, so what a dull comment.
This time around, at least Labour won't be burdened with the leadership millstone that was Jeremy Corbyn.
I meant that Boris wasn't unequivocally shit at winning elections.
A fair comment, but as OGH often points out, whilst up against Livingstone and Corbyn.
Another superb article. David is spot-on, as usual.
I'd add one further point: the weakness of the Shadow Cabinet. Sir Keir needs to address this urgently, clear out the differs (starting with Ms Dodds), and bring in some expertise to train up and the team.
The model should be Blair's team of the nineties, and the superb work they did to make the party credible again.
Starmer in general is very sensible, but he does need to pick his moments and could probably do so more than he has as there's been so many opportunities
That’s actually very wise. Will save lives. Given in-car phone syncing tech these days, it’s hard to see why people still faff about with their handsets while driving.
Everybody seems to be missing the story I was pointing to...It isn't the driving and using your phone one!
Such stuff only matters if there was improper influence in a professional capacity on top of it. I don't even remember if the investigations got anywhere on that.
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Not at winning elections, he isn't.
Well he hasn't fought one yet as leader, so what a dull comment.
This time around, at least Labour won't be burdened with the leadership millstone that was Jeremy Corbyn.
I meant that Boris wasn't unequivocally shit at winning elections.
A fair comment, but as OGH often points out, whilst up against Livingstone and Corbyn.
Livingstone won Mayor of London twice, andTheresa May couldn't even manage a majority against Corbyn. So there's that.
Another superb article. David is spot-on, as usual.
I'd add one further point: the weakness of the Shadow Cabinet. Sir Keir needs to address this urgently, clear out the differs (starting with Ms Dodds), and bring in some expertise to train up and the team.
The model should be Blair's team of the nineties, and the superb work they did to make the party credible again.
I am sure that you agree, but because of the federal nature of the Uk, with its mayors and the capacity they have to land blows on the government, and social media playing a key role Cameron is a better model to follow. But don’t bother the huskies.
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
The main party political or electoral significance of this week is that the blue wall seats are vulnerable. Labour has a route to reach them.
Always did given their history, so long as Labour were sensible and credibly led.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
Based on what? Trafalgar were exposed yesterday as charlatans by Robert so disregarding their polls completely what evidence are you working from?
They were the only pollster to forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 correctly using their methodology, every other pollster wrongly had Hillary comfortably ahead in both states, so to disregard their polls completely is absurd
PB Tory criticism of Starmer seems to be he should be better than he is. The reality, though, is that you only need to be better than who you are up against - as long as you keep your party in line. This is where I think David has his strongest point. Starmer has to ensure that the predictable groans and criticisms from the far-left remain there and do not spread beyond that. Too much abstaining is not a good look. There were legitimate, considered grounds to abstain on the Security Bill. There are no good reasons to do so on the one relating to immunity for the armed forces. Let’s see what happens there.
A typically PB reductionist reply. It isn't just about who wins an election: a successful premiership is more likely to spring from "He's fought our corner for the past 4 years and been right about all the important things" than from "Not as shit as Johnson" votes.
But you always need to win the election first. That said, not being as shit as Johnson, who is unequivocally shit in every way, is a pretty good start!
Not at winning elections, he isn't.
Well he hasn't fought one yet as leader, so what a dull comment.
This time around, at least Labour won't be burdened with the leadership millstone that was Jeremy Corbyn.
I meant that Boris wasn't unequivocally shit at winning elections.
A fair comment, but as OGH often points out, whilst up against Livingstone and Corbyn.
Livingstone won Mayor of London twice, andTheresa May couldn't even manage a majority against Corbyn. So there's that.
OK against a discredited Livingstone and Corbyn, both at the twilight of their careers.
I've friends in New Zealand. They run naked around the fields: that's a metaphor by the way
Total freedom. No masks. No fear.
And for those who bleat that New Zealand has only 4.5 m people, it's just a question of scale. We're an island and so are they. We could have done it.
It's laughable that Herdson criticises Sir Keir for the very thing that so bedevils Johnson: dithering, vacillating, rudderless, incompetence on a scale not seen in this country for over a century. Jeez, Boris has made Theresa May look like Maggie.
I'm assuming to do that we would have had to introduce draconian measures in February including quarantine of all half term visitors to Italy. It may be New Zealand has got it right particularly if an effective vaccine becomes available soon or it may be they have pushed the problem down the road. We shall see.
The UK's handling of borders has been shambolic - I blame Shapps who persuaded Cabinet that Patel's "quarantine arrivers" would be "bad for business". Initial arrivals from China were quarantined - then they just let it rip. You don't have to look as far as New Zealand to see how it can be done - both Guernsey and the Isle of Man have controlled their borders and fined/imprisoned quarantine breakers - neither have in community transmission and no social distancing or mask wearing.
Dear dear that old chesnut again, empty barren islands with grass airfields don't get much covid shock. Densely populated countries with huge world travel hubs do shocker. You could not make it up. Try looking at the empty parts of UK, shocker they have almost NO covid.
New Zealand is one of the most isolated nations and least densely populated nations on earth, basically Wales stuck thousands of miles from anywhere in the south Pacific.
Not thousands. The great circle distance between the South Island and Tasmania is about 900 miles.
If Tasmania is what you are close to you are indeed isolated.
Freedland: if Americans repudiate Trump, that would suggest the reassertion of a political rule that seemed to have been shredded in 2016: that there are some things voters will not tolerate. That incompetence, corruption and dishonesty exact a price. The restoration of that standard would not be kind to Johnson. And a defeated Trump would rob the prime minister of what has been a useful, if largely unspoken, argument: no matter how bad Johnson has been, no matter how inept his handling of the pandemic, at least he’s not been as awful as that man in the White House. If Trump is beaten, that handy comparator will become unavailable – along with the relative reassurance it provided
If Johnson's a Churchillian he's a special relationshiper, so how about he pivots to a President Biden, a bit like the Blair Clinton to Bush progression, and we get a Grinch style conversion?
I don't really see it. Kamala probably never saw the funny side of the pillarbox stuff.
People really really overplay personal dynamics in international relations. Plenty of leaders who probably despise Trump's vulgarity and policies have managed to deal with him.
New Zealand is one of the most isolated nations and least densely populated nations on earth, basically Wales stuck thousands of miles from anywhere in the south Pacific.
Not thousands. The great circle distance between the South Island and Tasmania is about 900 miles.
It is 1,381 miles from New Zealand's coast to Sydney and 1,604 miles from New Zealand's coast to Melbourne
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
Based on what? Trafalgar were exposed yesterday as charlatans by Robert so disregarding their polls completely what evidence are you working from?
They were the only pollster to forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 correctly using their methodology, every other pollster wrongly had Hillary comfortably ahead in both states, so to disregard their polls completely is absurd
Given you are disregarding every other pollster, including those right in other places, I'm not sure how you mentally justify declaring that absurd.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
Based on what? Trafalgar were exposed yesterday as charlatans by Robert so disregarding their polls completely what evidence are you working from?
They were the only pollster to forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 correctly using their methodology, every other pollster wrongly had Hillary comfortably ahead in both states, so to disregard their polls completely is absurd
I have a stopped clock here. It tells the correct time twice a day... that makes it twice as good as your precious Trafalgar
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Not with the spineless donkeys they have in this country
When was the year when you made your transition from Thatcherite Tory to Salmondite SNPer?
Well back into last century ( many generations for stupid Tories to understand ) and it was a single vote to get shot of the nutters / unions running Labour at that. A necessary evil at the time but has been extremely hard to live with the fact that I voted Tory once in my life.
Somewhat odd timing for an article in a week where Starmer led the news.
Although David might answer he’s supposed to be leading the Labour Party and the Opoosition.
Starmer led all three this week.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I do hope so.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
He is just another establishment empty suit. Millionaire self seeking useless arsehole who does not even have the guts to be a nasty Tory.
You CANNOT be describing Starmer! You're posts are usually on the nail. That just doesn't fit
Freedland: if Americans repudiate Trump, that would suggest the reassertion of a political rule that seemed to have been shredded in 2016: that there are some things voters will not tolerate. That incompetence, corruption and dishonesty exact a price. The restoration of that standard would not be kind to Johnson. And a defeated Trump would rob the prime minister of what has been a useful, if largely unspoken, argument: no matter how bad Johnson has been, no matter how inept his handling of the pandemic, at least he’s not been as awful as that man in the White House. If Trump is beaten, that handy comparator will become unavailable – along with the relative reassurance it provided
Spain also now has more deaths per head than the UK, as does Belgium, Peru, Brazil etc not just the US and France now has had more cases than the UK too
Most of that is true, but in UK news if it didn't happen in the US we probably won't hear much about it. Spain has had some notice, but I don't think I've seen much talk of Belgiums situation, and Peru might as well be on Mars. Brazil only gets noticed as Bolsonaro is regarded as their Trump.
given that case numbers are already showing signs in many of the "hotspot" areas of at least plateauing, if not declining.
Not a chance. And everyone who predicts things like this with the virus gets bitten in the ass,
The virus infection rate will continue to grow through the upcoming winter. It just doesn't happen in a perfect linear pattern.
So why pretend to be able to control it and ruin people's lives?
Oh we can control it. The Asians have.
Mandatory face masks outdoors & indoors. No exceptions. You leave your house even to walk your dog: face mask. End of.
Borders sealed with mandatory quarantine on new arrivals.
Compulsory contact tracing.
Enforced isolation and quarantine.
Instead, we piss around at the margins.
We are now doomed to keep going around in circles until there is a vaccine because a significant minority of the population will completely disregard the restrictions and undermine any effort to control the spread of infection. We saw that in the summer which is why we are now back in lockdowns
Increasingly more and more people will ask themselves why they should bother when the news is full of scenes of unmasked, undistanced youngsters (predominantly) partying every night. For months now I have assessed my own risk and acted accordingly, I do what I think is very low risk and avoid what isn't. I really only have a vague notion of the actual rules currently
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Indeed. My optimism is less from Starmer becoming Clark Kent than from Trump losing and leaving the Johnsons and his Faragists horribly exposed. Unlike most on here I don't think this government is as loathed as it ought to be
I don't think this government is as loathed as it ought to be........ yet.
And upthread Mr Seal was remarking on the Star's obvious hatred of Cummings. Someone else pointed out that the Star's readers aren't (very) interested in politics, but as we've discussed here many times, once the public gets an opinion about something it's hard to shake. At the moment we're seeing, I suspect, the end of the 'Good old Boris, laddish, hail fellow, well met and all that' persona that won the election. His inability to deal with, or even listen to, detail is showing and it's obvious to the casual observer that he's surrounded himself with a cohort of people most of whom are at least two of nasty incompetent and corruptible.
So, Covid is out of control, the oven-ready Brexit deal is inedible, another scandal is confirmed in the press and BoZo's chum across the water is heading for defeat.
What cunning plan does he have to restore his fortunes?
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
Based on what? Trafalgar were exposed yesterday as charlatans by Robert so disregarding their polls completely what evidence are you working from?
They were the only pollster to forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 correctly using their methodology, every other pollster wrongly had Hillary comfortably ahead in both states, so to disregard their polls completely is absurd
I have a stopped clock here. It tells the correct time twice a day... that makes it twice as good as your precious Trafalgar
Your point is..?
I know most people on here are forecasting a Biden landslide, a few of us like myself and Mr Ed disagree, we will see who is right on election night.
Biden is certainly no Obama or Blair or Macron or Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern, in the US the energy is still with the Trump campaign, like Kerry or Romney in my view most people are voting against Trump when they vote for Biden not for him, though I think he will get closer to victory than they did and likely win the popular vote he may fall just short in the EC
New Zealand is one of the most isolated nations and least densely populated nations on earth, basically Wales stuck thousands of miles from anywhere in the south Pacific.
Not thousands. The great circle distance between the South Island and Tasmania is about 900 miles.
It is 1,381 miles from New Zealand's coast to Sydney and 1,604 miles from New Zealand's coast to Melbourne
Whitty appears to have told a public lecture yesterday that severe lockdowns will be judged well by history just as the controversial banning of children up chimneys has been.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Not with the spineless donkeys they have in this country
When was the year when you made your transition from Thatcherite Tory to Salmondite SNPer?
Well back into last century ( many generations for stupid Tories to understand ) and it was a single vote to get shot of the nutters / unions running Labour at that. A necessary evil at the time but has been extremely hard to live with the fact that I voted Tory once in my life.
This revelation has blown my mind.
You know, they say repeating the sin might make it weigh easier on the conscience..
Somewhat odd timing for an article in a week where Starmer led the news.
Although David might answer he’s supposed to be leading the Labour Party and the Opoosition.
Starmer led all three this week.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I do hope so.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
He is just another establishment empty suit. Millionaire self seeking useless arsehole who does not even have the guts to be a nasty Tory.
That's more than dubious. If he has become a millionare it'd have to have been through working as a charity's legal officer (salary currently circa £30k per annum), then in mostly Legal Aid cases at the bar (standard fees currently about £250 per hour), and then as DPP (salary roughly £225k p.a.). There are be a lot of people in the legal profession who would be interested to know, Malc, how that would lead him to be a millionaire. Can you let me know as I appear to have made some catastrophic career choces in that respect. He's certainly not rich via his nurse mother and toolmaker father.
Starmer could have become a millionaire, easily, by going into a far more remunerative areas of law, like tax or Chancery, or by joining a Magic Circle firm. He didn't. Indeed he acted in the McLibel claim for free - which cost him a lot of money and took a lot of guts. He may well have saved a million in assets (his house looks very nice) and thus technically be a millionaire but he's not, by current standards, at all rich.
I'd given up on the Labour Party but Starmer MIGHT tempt me back. We'll see how it goes. Long time to make my mind up.
You do not need a lot of years at that kind of money to be a millionaire. At the top the legal profession make huge money, admittedly they tend to make it on the sweat of the lawyers and para legals at the bottom of the pile. For sure there are many many rich lawyers. I bet he never has to worry about cash, mind you I don't myself , but like all Labour grandeees will do little for the working class other than fleece them of fees. They talk about the workers but always end up millionaires in the HOL sucking at the public teat, at least the Tories are honest about being greedy uncaring barstewards. A choice between Labour and Tories is a bit like choosing which leg to cut off.
That’s actually very wise. Will save lives. Given in-car phone syncing tech these days, it’s hard to see why people still faff about with their handsets while driving.
Everybody seems to be missing the story I was pointing to...It isn't the driving and using your phone one!
Such stuff only matters if there was improper influence in a professional capacity on top of it. I don't even remember if the investigations got anywhere on that.
Someone is going to be locked up, that's for sure.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
Based on what? Trafalgar were exposed yesterday as charlatans by Robert so disregarding their polls completely what evidence are you working from?
They were the only pollster to forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 correctly using their methodology, every other pollster wrongly had Hillary comfortably ahead in both states, so to disregard their polls completely is absurd
I have a stopped clock here. It tells the correct time twice a day... that makes it twice as good as your precious Trafalgar
Your point is..?
I know most people on here are forecasting a Biden landslide, a few of us like myself and Mr Ed disagree, we will see who is right on election night.
Biden is certainly no Obama or Jacinda Ardern, in the US the energy is still with the Trump campaign
Most people seem to be predicting a Biden win not a landslide, do you might need to adjust your claim when you seek to crow about it
Its like I said, should Trump win there'll be much pretending that no one considered it possible except a noble few.
I've friends in New Zealand. They run naked around the fields: that's a metaphor by the way
Total freedom. No masks. No fear.
And for those who bleat that New Zealand has only 4.5 m people, it's just a question of scale. We're an island and so are they. We could have done it.
It's laughable that Herdson criticises Sir Keir for the very thing that so bedevils Johnson: dithering, vacillating, rudderless, incompetence on a scale not seen in this country for over a century. Jeez, Boris has made Theresa May look like Maggie.
I'm assuming to do that we would have had to introduce draconian measures in February including quarantine of all half term visitors to Italy. It may be New Zealand has got it right particularly if an effective vaccine becomes available soon or it may be they have pushed the problem down the road. We shall see.
The UK's handling of borders has been shambolic - I blame Shapps who persuaded Cabinet that Patel's "quarantine arrivers" would be "bad for business". Initial arrivals from China were quarantined - then they just let it rip. You don't have to look as far as New Zealand to see how it can be done - both Guernsey and the Isle of Man have controlled their borders and fined/imprisoned quarantine breakers - neither have in community transmission and no social distancing or mask wearing.
Dear dear that old chesnut again, empty barren islands with grass airfields don't get much covid shock. Densely populated countries with huge world travel hubs do shocker. You could not make it up. Try looking at the empty parts of UK, shocker they have almost NO covid.
The population density of Guernsey is 995/sq km - Scotland 65 sq/km. But Nats & Facts eh?
Freedland: if Americans repudiate Trump, that would suggest the reassertion of a political rule that seemed to have been shredded in 2016: that there are some things voters will not tolerate. That incompetence, corruption and dishonesty exact a price. The restoration of that standard would not be kind to Johnson. And a defeated Trump would rob the prime minister of what has been a useful, if largely unspoken, argument: no matter how bad Johnson has been, no matter how inept his handling of the pandemic, at least he’s not been as awful as that man in the White House. If Trump is beaten, that handy comparator will become unavailable – along with the relative reassurance it provided
If Johnson's a Churchillian he's a special relationshiper, so how about he pivots to a President Biden, a bit like the Blair Clinton to Bush progression, and we get a Grinch style conversion?
I don't really see it. Kamala probably never saw the funny side of the pillarbox stuff.
People really really overplay personal dynamics in international relations. Plenty of leaders who probably despise Trump's vulgarity and policies have managed to deal with him.
I agree personal dynamics are overrated but consistency is not. Germany, in particular, has had a very bumpy ride with Trump, whether it is his indifference to NATO, the abandonment of the Paris Climate Change Accords, the tearing up of the Iran deal. I have read a number of articles about how this has led them to re-evaluate their relationship with America. It no longer looks or sounds like the reliable friend of the last 75 years.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
If you only give Biden those states where he has at least a 5% lead (according to 538), then he wins 278 to 260. Trump takes Florida, Arizona, Georgia and North Carolina but still loses.
So, Covid is out of control, the oven-ready Brexit deal is inedible, another scandal is confirmed in the press and BoZo's chum across the water is heading for defeat.
What cunning plan does he have to restore his fortunes?
Junior party suffers again eh? And in this case it really was the case Ahern wouldn't be PM without him I believe. Risk you take i guess, and she was strong even before Covid.
Something very beautiful is currently happening in New Zealand.
Labour and landslide. Two words I’ve not heard together in a while. My goodness if anyone has earned a good result she has. An impressive politician and a model for the left to follow.
Not with the spineless donkeys they have in this country
When was the year when you made your transition from Thatcherite Tory to Salmondite SNPer?
Well back into last century ( many generations for stupid Tories to understand ) and it was a single vote to get shot of the nutters / unions running Labour at that. A necessary evil at the time but has been extremely hard to live with the fact that I voted Tory once in my life.
Thanks for your candour.
I was only asking as you have the look of Jackson Carlaw about you.
Somewhat odd timing for an article in a week where Starmer led the news.
Although David might answer he’s supposed to be leading the Labour Party and the Opoosition.
Starmer led all three this week.
And FWIW Burnhams contribution is entirely complementary. Labour is beginning to develop strength and depth.
I do hope so.
I’ve been far too exhausted to follow events this week so I’ve only been catching news flashes on the car radio. But my distinct impression on that superficial knowledge was that Burnham, not Starmer, was leading the response.
That would, whether it reflects the true situation or not, tend to support David’s basic point that he’s struggling to cut through. That wasn’t a problem Corbyn had, although he was usually in the news for negative reasons.
He is just another establishment empty suit. Millionaire self seeking useless arsehole who does not even have the guts to be a nasty Tory.
You CANNOT be describing Starmer! You're posts are usually on the nail. That just doesn't fit
Roger , I have a feeling he is another duffer. I don't like the cut of his jib and fact that he hates democracy confirms he is a wrong un, a sheep in Tory clothing.
Boris’ track record of winning elections speaks for itself. He is good at it.
It’s a shame that is as far as it goes. Not only is he impressively incompetent in office, he seems to actively resent having to do the job he was elected to.
Government is such a bore, he’d much rather play the election game, play to the crowd and try to fill some hole in his psyche.
I think this is right. It is why I think Boris will go within a year or two.
He just wants to be able to say "we got Brexit done" or "we had a world beater against Covid" in his boosterish way.
And then he will go. Leaving a god-almighty mess for the next PM.
Punters are smashing into Trump on Betfair. I have no idea why.
The Betfair market is wierd this year as people got their fingers burned last time and take any favourable news for the Trump campaign as a healthy sprinkling of confirmation bias. I suspect (but don't know) that a lot of people have seen the Trafalgar Michigan poll ("They were the only ones who got it right last time!") and are taking the same approach as a certain nameless poster on here who made a punt on Trump yesterday.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
Hillary was also strong favoured in 2016 and we all know what happened then, I am not suggesting Biden won't win the popular vote, he almost certainly will but I now believe there is a strong chance Trump will narrowly win the EC and be re elected
Based on what? Trafalgar were exposed yesterday as charlatans by Robert so disregarding their polls completely what evidence are you working from?
They were the only pollster to forecast Trump would win Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016 correctly using their methodology, every other pollster wrongly had Hillary comfortably ahead in both states, so to disregard their polls completely is absurd
What this argument is missing is a rationale for why when we want to decide which pollsters we think our reliable, it's better to cherry-pick specific races where they were right, rather than looking across their entire record and seeing how often they're right compared to how often they're wrong. The first approach makes them sound good, the latter makes them sound very bad.
Comments
I have been wrong before about the Conservatives ability to weather economic storms that would have done for Labour, but this time I cannot see it. From my own experience I have been worked off my feet post pandemic, but the penny dropped this week that this is all work paid for up front pre-March. There is virtually no new work coming in. One can blame the pandemic, Brexit or Andy Burnham, and explain it is not Boris Johnson and the Conservatives fault (which may be true) but rest assured this recession will be brutal and those in the driving seat will cop for the crash.
Lots of commentary after the election about the Tories being loaned these votes and that is true. They won't vote Tory if Brexit and the Pandemic has brought their town to ruin no matter what southern you-know-nothing Jon-Snow commentators like HYUFD think. But unless Labour can offer something else they won't vote at all - or will vote for a more radical and dangerous "solution" to their problems.
Starmer's problem isn't his cardboard nature. Its that he literally has no alternative ideas that can gain a consensus in his party never mind the country.
FWIW I do think we have seen the high water mark of Biden polling but that still makes him, justifiably, strongly favoured.
I know that the Tories won an 80 seat majority. But they've already lost swathes of the voting blue collar base that delivered that majority. And without a rapid about turn in both policy and humility they won't win them back.
1. Convey a sense of sober, patriotic responsibility and be accepted as a potential PM. Tick.
2. Select single high-profile issues to disagree with the Government, rather than constant opposition. In progress.
3. Set out a coherent alternative programme. At least a year away, probably longer.
Is it exciting? Absolutely not. But we are all actively interested in these things. Most people aren't and currently regard party politics as a tiresome distraction. Starmer will get an audience on Covid. He can't sensibly say much on Brexit - it is what it is, his views are known, and the outcome will speak for itself.
Excellent thread as usual from Mr Herdson - although I fear he's too generous in the above assessment - it was Starmer's fault - attempting to triangulate Islington Remainia with Redcar Brexitania - with the resultant mess that pleased nobody.
"Labour" or "Ardern" landslide?
Mr. (Miss?) Rose, we're a densely populated island nation. New Zealand is sparsely populated. We're within swimming distance of the nearest continent. They are thousands of miles away.
Pointing out facts regarding the wildly different demographics and location of the United Kingdom and New Zealand is not bleating. It's useful and relevant information.
Unless you're using an a posteriori approach and have already determined the conclusion you desire.
But most likely is reaction to the Hunter Biden story, amplified by Twitter and Facebook's reaction. And by reaction I mean overreaction since the allegations are meh, and it might yet turn into another tale of dirty tricks.
Conservative posters on here are convinced once the health issues around the pandemic are over, it returns to business as usual and the charismatic, Johnson, or Sunak, or even the agreeable Tugenhadt will sail into Downing St. clutching a handsome majority.
We are staring down the barrel of a between-the-wars world depression. How do the Conservatives successfully insulate the UK and themselves against this?
Every now and again I get taken in by the more charming and lucid Conservative posters/commentators like Mr Herdson. Then reality bites and I realise the Conservative Party is in the same bad place as the rest of us.
Given that SKS, whom God preserve, is following a leader no sane person would allow the live in a free country let alone lead it, his first priority must be distance from the loony left, anti semitism, and all the other baggage of Leninism.
Labour remain acutely vulnerable to attack. Neutrality and a policy of saying the government is broadly right in principle over the crises (ie we musn't all die of Covid, Brexit shall happen) but is sub optimal in implementation is the best way of avoiding the perennial attack of being profligate supporters of leftie lunacy.
Attack on Tory competence feels at the moment like a permanent free hit. SKS will do well to stick to it. He isn't 20 points ahead in the polls because of Corbyn; nothing to do with now.
SKS has had one piece of luck: at this moment Tory references to Labour's magic money tree etc would be met with ribald mirth. That does not happen often. The last time Labour looked better on economics than the Tories they swept the country.
Starmer could have become a millionaire, easily, by going into a far more remunerative areas of law, like tax or Chancery, or by joining a Magic Circle firm. He didn't. Indeed he acted in the McLibel claim for free - which cost him a lot of money and took a lot of guts. He may well have saved a million in assets (his house looks very nice) and thus technically be a millionaire but he's not, by current standards, at all rich.
I'd given up on the Labour Party but Starmer MIGHT tempt me back. We'll see how it goes. Long time to make my mind up.
https://twitter.com/SJWebber_PHW/status/1317202887030853633?s=20
He was Mayor for eight years and, beyond the eponymous bikes, it's hard to think of a signature policy he'll be remembered for. The Mayorality is not really all that powerful - at least compared to similar positions in Paris and NYC.
Now he has a far more onerous executive position the Emperor, and his lack of clothing, is in full and unflattering display.
This is where I can claim at least tangential relevance to the topic. At one point Tom Hayden makes the point that confronting authority and showing utter disdain for it was going to lose them elections for the next 50 years. He wants to challenge the system from the inside and was subsequently elected in California. The more Hippy types also made strong points but there is no doubt at all that SKS is a Hayden type: serious, a little dull and absolutely on the inside looking out.
He does not offer inspiration or vision, he offers or at least promises some form of managerial competence. And that might just be enough. I would not write him off yet, not by any means.
This time around, at least Labour won't be burdened with the leadership millstone that was Jeremy Corbyn.
- do I attack the government's policies?
- do I attack the government for incompetently executing those policies?
In normal times, the Opposition does both. In a time of national crisis, either can be presented as unpatriotic/playing politics. I think the first is difficult at the moment because the government has actually followed public opinion pretty closely - not doing much till mid-March, then suddenly panicking and locking down, but leaving just enough scope for some normal life to continue, then lightening up over the summer, and now panicking again. Whatever one thinks of that approach, I doubt there were enough people violently unhappy with it to make attacking it a realistic proposition. And it is by definition impossible to attack it in a way that would please both those who want more measures and those who want fewer. Both are probably well represented in the people who Labour needs to win back in 2024.
Which leaves attacking the government for incompetence. I think that was always his best bet, and the government has certainly given him a lot of scope to do so. But it is to some extent priced in from any opposition. And it has a big pitfall too. It is too easily presented as attacking the public sector, Labour's core voters. Avoiding that needs a much nimbler operator than SKS has shown himself to be.
It is a totally different case from the UK which is one of the most densely populated nations on earth and of course Ardern effectively banned all tourism to New Zealand during lockdown making it even more isolated, it has also gone into recession now though clearly New Zealanders overall feel Arden did a good enough job containing Covid to be re elected and given a chance to continue for a second term
Red Wallers, like the rest of us will be on their knees, whilst Dido Harding, the Directors of Serco, George Osborne (in his role at the BBC) Robert Jenrick and Richard Desmond are still ladelling off the cream.
It’s a shame that is as far as it goes. Not only is he impressively incompetent in office, he seems to actively resent having to do the job he was elected to.
Government is such a bore, he’d much rather play the election game, play to the crowd and try to fill some hole in his psyche.
I'd add one further point: the weakness of the Shadow Cabinet. Sir Keir needs to address this urgently, clear out the differs (starting with Ms Dodds), and bring in some expertise to train up and the team.
The model should be Blair's team of the nineties, and the superb work they did to make the party credible again.
Labour 49.6% National 26.6% ACT 7.9% Greens 7.8% NZF 2.4%
Seats Labour 65 National 35 ACT 10 Green 10 NZF 0
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQo3XMpwwzA&ab_channel=Newshub
Your point is..?
https://medium.com/@bishopwilliam937/the-2020-election-is-closer-than-you-think-28ebc6b1c928
Check with @Cyclefree for details. She become very animated about it the other night.
Increasingly more and more people will ask themselves why they should bother when the news is full of scenes of unmasked, undistanced youngsters (predominantly) partying every night. For months now I have assessed my own risk and acted accordingly, I do what I think is very low risk and avoid what isn't. I really only have a vague notion of the actual rules currently
And upthread Mr Seal was remarking on the Star's obvious hatred of Cummings. Someone else pointed out that the Star's readers aren't (very) interested in politics, but as we've discussed here many times, once the public gets an opinion about something it's hard to shake.
At the moment we're seeing, I suspect, the end of the 'Good old Boris, laddish, hail fellow, well met and all that' persona that won the election. His inability to deal with, or even listen to, detail is showing and it's obvious to the casual observer that he's surrounded himself with a cohort of people most of whom are at least two of nasty incompetent and corruptible.
https://twitter.com/Taniel/status/1317232405447659527?s=19
https://twitter.com/piersmorgan/status/1317377219254231040?s=20
Biden is certainly no Obama or Blair or Macron or Trudeau or Jacinda Ardern, in the US the energy is still with the Trump campaign, like Kerry or Romney in my view most people are voting against Trump when they vote for Biden not for him, though I think he will get closer to victory than they did and likely win the popular vote he may fall just short in the EC
You know, they say repeating the sin might make it weigh easier on the conscience..
A choice between Labour and Tories is a bit like choosing which leg to cut off.
Its like I said, should Trump win there'll be much pretending that no one considered it possible except a noble few.
But Nats & Facts eh?
I was only asking as you have the look of Jackson Carlaw about you.
He just wants to be able to say "we got Brexit done" or "we had a world beater against Covid" in his boosterish way.
And then he will go. Leaving a god-almighty mess for the next PM.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=VQo3XMpwwzA&ab_channel=Newshub
Can you supply the missing piece of the argument?