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YouGov’s US election model is just out and projects a Biden landslide – politicalbetting.com

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  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    Is it really old-fashioned, or is it an innovation of the current monarch that ultimately depends on her personal authority?
    No. Duty is a concept that goes back a very long time.

    Her authority rests on the respect she commands - as is the case in all jobs.
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Given the apparently massive infection rate of spreading through students, there must be a serious chance that the peak of virus in some of these university towns might be very rapid and fizzle away before we know it?
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    Has it been established what in the new 3 tier rules will be law, and what will be guidance?
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    edited October 2020
    alex_ said:

    Given the apparently massive infection rate of spreading through students, there must be a serious chance that the peak of virus in some of these university towns might be very rapid and fizzle away before we know it?

    9,000 of the quarter of a million new infections over the last week were students.

    Out of about two million students total

    According to government figures mentioned in the commons today.

    Do the maths and the infection rate among students is basically neither much higher nor much lower than par.

    Suggesting the whole student thing is a red herring.

    The only data I have seen to the contrary (aside from the anecdote of a uni in Nottingham, where there is clearly a big problem) compared local authority areas with universities to those without. The former had many more infections - from which it seems to have been assumed that the problem is the universities themselves. Perhaps, people have overlooked that universities are almost all located in big cities?
  • GallowgateGallowgate Posts: 20,176
    Andy_JS said:

    I hope that just includes the West Midlands urban area and not the wider West Midlands region.
    Just Greater Solihull.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    FYI, NYT / Siena poll out for the Michigan Siena race - Peters only now +1 ahead of James. That follows the CBS poll yesterday that showed Peters only at +3. Note 13% of the respondents in the NYT said refused / don't know

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/miwi1020-crosstabs/b0a09cd1cd0048df/full.pdf

    James did this last time with Stabenow where he ended up strong and came in closer than expected. It looks the same pattern here and he started out less behind with Peters than he did with Stabenow.

    Interestingly, the same NYT poll gives Biden as +8 in Michigan
  • FrankBoothFrankBooth Posts: 10,022

    They will vary. Charles and the Queen will get similar (although not identical ones) whilst William probably gets a simpler digest.

    I doubt Andrew, Edward or Harry get anything at all.
    What is the need for this? I mean Charles and William anyway. I understand things relating to their own security but more generally. We aren't in a regency.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    alex_ said:

    Given the apparently massive infection rate of spreading through students, there must be a serious chance that the peak of virus in some of these university towns might be very rapid and fizzle away before we know it?

    There was a comment on a previous thread that the number of students that have had it is in the thousands, while there are a couple of million students at university. Not sure of the source of those, but if it is anywhere near accurate it suggests infections need to go up by another factor of a hundred or so.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    MrEd said:

    FYI, NYT / Siena poll out for the Michigan Siena race - Peters only now +1 ahead of James. That follows the CBS poll yesterday that showed Peters only at +3. Note 13% of the respondents in the NYT said refused / don't know

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/miwi1020-crosstabs/b0a09cd1cd0048df/full.pdf

    James did this last time with Stabenow where he ended up strong and came in closer than expected. It looks the same pattern here and he started out less behind with Peters than he did with Stabenow.

    Interestingly, the same NYT poll gives Biden as +8 in Michigan

    Sorry meant Senate race not Siena race :)
  • Rishi is a very good communicator
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,686
    Andy_JS said:

    Is there a map anywhere showing which tier an area has been placed in?

    Bozo said there would be an online enter your postcode thing 'soon'.
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468
    Scott_xP said:
    Racial stereotyping with Rishi's job much?
  • Peston using 1000 words to ask a 10 word question....
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    He is the future
    Heir apparent is a dangerous role to hold.
  • Casino_RoyaleCasino_Royale Posts: 62,309

    What is the need for this? I mean Charles and William anyway. I understand things relating to their own security but more generally. We aren't in a regency.
    Charles will be taking over soon. He needs to be well briefed and understand the issues in play.

    William needs training for his future role, which will come around sooner than we think and he could be taking up over anything from a 10-30 year horizon.
  • What is the need for this? I mean Charles and William anyway. I understand things relating to their own security but more generally. We aren't in a regency.
    If HMQ is expected to know this information then it makes sense Charles gets the information too since at a second's notice he could be HMK (is that the right acronym?)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317
    So the highest risk tier operates on a sliding scale of interventions. So it is not a three tier system then. It is a three tier, plus, plus, plus etc. system.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581

    Charles will be taking over soon. He needs to be well briefed and understand the issues in play.

    William needs training for his future role, which will come around sooner than we think and he could be taking up over anything from a 10-30 year horizon.
    With a pandemic on better start George on training too, just in case.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    edited October 2020
    "What tier is your area in?

    Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.

    The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.

    The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html

    I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.
  • theakestheakes Posts: 958
    No, bit early for April fool.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,233
    MrEd said:

    FYI, NYT / Siena poll out for the Michigan Siena race - Peters only now +1 ahead of James. That follows the CBS poll yesterday that showed Peters only at +3. Note 13% of the respondents in the NYT said refused / don't know

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/miwi1020-crosstabs/b0a09cd1cd0048df/full.pdf

    James did this last time with Stabenow where he ended up strong and came in closer than expected. It looks the same pattern here and he started out less behind with Peters than he did with Stabenow.

    Interestingly, the same NYT poll gives Biden as +8 in Michigan

    Peters seems to be a weak candidate from what I can gather on twitter. OTOH The Dems have a shot at Kansas https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf
  • SandyRentoolSandyRentool Posts: 22,686
    nichomar said:

    Don’t forget the local dog catcher as well.
    He's been hounded out of office.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    MrEd said:

    Sorry meant Senate race not Siena race :)
    I did think they were very human names for horses
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Thanks for the header Mike. FYI, hovering over the states, it looks like the Margin of Error on each state is around 6% given or take 0.1% or 0.2%
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    I have never doubted Trump was gone as soon as he got covid and confirmed how much a pratt he is
    For me it was the Senate's impeachment hearings. I think that charade not only exposed Trump, but resulted in many non-partisans being disgusted at the Senate GOP's spinelessness.

    But Covid. Covid, Covid. Those of the nails in his coffin.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    IanB2 said:

    I did think they were very human names for horses
    And not very Italian either....
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,606

    If HMQ is expected to know this information then it makes sense Charles gets the information too since at a second's notice he could be HMK (is that the right acronym?)
    It's quicker than that. Royalty moves faster than the speed of light. George VI died and HM became Queen instantaneously. In Kenya.
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Pulpstar said:

    Peters seems to be a weak candidate from what I can gather on twitter. OTOH The Dems have a shot at Kansas https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf
    I think in the end the Republicans will probably hold Kansas. The SC packing issue may help them.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Scott_xP said:
    As I said earlier, Boris's political weakness shined through today's debate in various ways. His political strength and capital and credibility amongst colleagues is all gone.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    It's quicker than that. Royalty moves faster than the speed of light. George VI died and HM became Queen instantaneously. In Kenya.
    They must have been in a state of quantum entanglement.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    MrEd said:

    Thanks for the header Mike. FYI, hovering over the states, it looks like the Margin of Error on each state is around 6% given or take 0.1% or 0.2%

    True. Also it remains the case that Trump needs a swingback of around 3% to 3.5% to win the states he needs, which is the same thing that 538 has been saying for ages.
  • TimT said:
    Hardly. Its a shot of him serving food in Wagamama.
  • eekeek Posts: 29,738
    Andy_JS said:

    Is there a map anywhere showing which tier an area has been placed in?

    Does this help

    https://twitter.com/cjcheesecake/status/1315718946964860928
  • alex_alex_ Posts: 7,518
    IanB2 said:

    9,000 of the quarter of a million new infections over the last week were students.

    Out of about two million students total

    According to government figures mentioned in the commons today.

    Do the maths and the infection rate among students is basically neither much higher nor much lower than par.

    Suggesting the whole student thing is a red herring.

    The only data I have seen to the contrary (aside from the anecdote of a uni in Nottingham, where there is clearly a big problem) compared local authority areas with universities to those without. The former had many more infections - from which it seems to have been assumed that the problem is the universities themselves. Perhaps, people have overlooked that universities are almost all located in big cities?
    Fair enough, but - there were a quarter of a million infections last week? Where did that figure come from? And also how does it explain the massive jump in figures in the last week of September caused by the spreadsheet error (or was that not caused by university data?)
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 98,581
    eek said:

    Does this help

    https://twitter.com/cjcheesecake/status/1315718946964860928
    In fairness that's basically how I see things in the country even without a pandemic.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,606
    TimT said:
    No. He's East African Punjabi. Not Japanese.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    kle4 said:

    In fairness that's basically how I see things in the country even without a pandemic.
    Pushing luck with London there
  • TimTTimT Posts: 6,468

    No. He's East African Punjabi. Not Japanese.
    I find the precision of the denials interesting.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    IanB2 said:

    As I said earlier, Boris's political weakness shined through today's debate in various ways. His political strength and capital and credibility amongst colleagues is all gone.

    To which the question must be, are they only keeping him in place now to take all the blame?
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 23,795
    Andy_JS said:

    "What tier is your area in?

    Local authorities in the Liverpool City Region will be put under the highest alert level, tier three. The affected boroughs are Liverpool, Knowsley, Wirral, St Helens, Sefton and Halton.

    The areas in tier two are Cheshire, Greater Manchester, Warrington, Derbyshire, Lancashire, West Yorkshire, South Yorkshire, North East, Tees Valley, West Midlands, Leicester and Nottingham.

    The rest of England has been placed under the medium alert level - tier one."

    https://www.independent.co.uk/life-style/three-tier-lockdown-map-system-which-tier-local-area-b990602.html

    I assume "West Midlands" means Birmingham, Solihull, Walsall, Wolverhampton, Dudley, Sandwell, and doesn't also include Herefordshire, Worcestershire, Warwickshire, Staffordshire, Shropshire.

    Great, so as you were in London then. Rumours nonsense?
  • MrEdMrEd Posts: 5,578
    Andy_JS said:

    True. Also it remains the case that Trump needs a swingback of around 3% to 3.5% to win the states he needs, which is the same thing that 538 has been saying for ages.
    Still possible.

    One of the more interesting things that have spotted is that in a lot of the Senate races, is that I always add the Democrat and Republican together to get the potential tally of possible further votes to capture. For Michigan, the combined score is 85, Minnesota 81% and 87% in Colorado.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    IanB2 said:

    9,000 of the quarter of a million new infections over the last week were students.

    Out of about two million students total

    According to government figures mentioned in the commons today.

    Do the maths and the infection rate among students is basically neither much higher nor much lower than par.

    Suggesting the whole student thing is a red herring.

    The only data I have seen to the contrary (aside from the anecdote of a uni in Nottingham, where there is clearly a big problem) compared local authority areas with universities to those without. The former had many more infections - from which it seems to have been assumed that the problem is the universities themselves. Perhaps, people have overlooked that universities are almost all located in big cities?
    Those figures don't look correct.
  • Andy_JSAndy_JS Posts: 34,295
    Darren Grimes is live on the Triggernometry Youtube channel if anyone's interested.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    alex_ said:

    Fair enough, but - there were a quarter of a million infections last week? Where did that figure come from? And also how does it explain the massive jump in figures in the last week of September caused by the spreadsheet error (or was that not caused by university data?)
    You're right to challenge the quarter of a million figure - it's the ONS estimate for the last week, but is apples and pears compared to the 9,000, which is actual confirmed infections. You can probably double the student figure to allow for unidentified infections, which magnifies the student epidemic a little, whilst it still being a small part of the picture.

    The spreadsheet error mostly affected the North West and not just students.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    TimT said:

    I find the precision of the denials interesting.

    The picture used is one he officially released as part of the Eat Out to catch Covid campaign
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,606
    alex_ said:

    Fair enough, but - there were a quarter of a million infections last week? Where did that figure come from? And also how does it explain the massive jump in figures in the last week of September caused by the spreadsheet error (or was that not caused by university data?)
    IanB2 is clearly not comparing like with like. A quarter of a million new infections is some made-up conjecture and at 36,000 a day way in advance of the tested total. Whereas 9,000 is probably a figure plucked out of his arse, or if not something like *positive tests known to be students*
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317
    Scott_xP said:

    To which the question must be, are they only keeping him in place now to take all the blame?
    That makes sense, however as time goes on Sunak will be tarnished along with Johnson. He needs to strike sooner rather than later.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    Scott_xP said:
    Because what he signed off is not the baseline?
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 39,823
    IanB2 said:

    You're right to challenge the quarter of a million figure - it's the ONS estimate for the last week, but is apples and pears compared to the 9,000, which is actual confirmed infections. You can probably double the student figure to allow for unidentified infections, which magnifies the student epidemic a little, whilst it still being a small part of the picture.

    The spreadsheet error mostly affected the North West and not just students.
    I don't think it's as low as 9,000. That number doesn't pass the sniff test at all. It feels like a number someone in PHE came up with that wasn't audited.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    Another BoZo press conference that generates more questions than answers...

    https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1315725297543774208

    https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1315725143428268036
  • Scott_xP said:
    And he went on to say

    'There are different things that can be done within the guidance'
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108

    IanB2 is clearly not comparing like with like. A quarter of a million new infections is some made-up conjecture and at 36,000 a day way in advance of the tested total. Whereas 9,000 is probably a figure plucked out of his arse, or if not something like *positive tests known to be students*
    "some made-up conjecture " -> the official ONS estimate
    "a figure plucked out of his arse" -> announced by the Education Minister in the Commons earlier

    Otherwise, fair challenge
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 127,059
    Scott_xP said:
    Of course not, Covid is going to spread unless and until we get a vaccine, the trick is to control that spread without destroying the economy with masks and social distancing etc not another full lockdown. We are not going to stop it spreading altogether
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317

    Peston using 1000 words to ask a 10 word question....

    The Neil Kinnock school of linguistics.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    HYUFD said:

    Of course not, Covid is going to spread unless and until we get a vaccine, the trick is to control that spread without destroying the economy with masks and social distancing etc not another full lockdown. We are not going to stop it spreading altogether
    Are you feeling OK? That's almost sensible.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 31,317
    Scott_xP said:
    I blame Steve Rotherham.
  • The security services had and have far better things to do than bug Princess Diana.
    A good excuse for the Mitchell & Webb sketch on the MI6 assassination of Princess Diana.

    https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=b4meFC1ee7Q
  • not_on_firenot_on_fire Posts: 4,449
    MrEd said:

    FYI, NYT / Siena poll out for the Michigan Siena race - Peters only now +1 ahead of James. That follows the CBS poll yesterday that showed Peters only at +3. Note 13% of the respondents in the NYT said refused / don't know

    https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/miwi1020-crosstabs/b0a09cd1cd0048df/full.pdf

    James did this last time with Stabenow where he ended up strong and came in closer than expected. It looks the same pattern here and he started out less behind with Peters than he did with Stabenow.

    Interestingly, the same NYT poll gives Biden as +8 in Michigan

    Credit where it’s due, you highlighted that Peters might be in trouble a couple of weeks back. I think he’ll hold on but might ruin the Dems night if he loses and they fail to win the Senate
  • BREAKING NEWS from Politico.com London Playbook

    "One MP tells my POLITICO colleague Emilio Casalicchio in today’s Morning Trade U.K. newsletter that Chief Whip Mark Spencer (himself a farmer) has a burdizzo — a large clamping tool designed to castrate small animals — in his office. It’s not quite a tarantula but it could keep a few of the more excitable male MPs in the government voting lobbies."

    Perhaps over-active use of the burdizzo may go some ways to explaining the rather supine stance taken by majority of Tory backbenchers to the PM's amply-demonstrated lack of fitness for his position?

    Is impotence trumping (in more ways than one?) incompetence?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,606
    TimT said:

    I find the precision of the denials interesting.
    Yup. If he was a Bangladeshi and it was an Indian restaurant that would be racial stereotyping. Or if it showed him as a corner shop owner or a GP (as his dad was)
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    edited October 2020
    Sunak's communication style is so Blair like I keep expecting him to announce that we are invading a large middle eastern country. But he is a fantastically good communicator.

    Interesting that the only revelation at the press conference was the aside from Whitty that everyone agrees this can't work. Which is certainly how it seemed to a lot of people - as, Liverpool apart, it barely changes anything.
  • solarflaresolarflare Posts: 3,929
    I wonder what the likes of Whitty would be proposing if there was not some semblance of need to maintain a functional economy. Would they just have had us holed up in our own houses for 12 months, maybe a wee break in July before back in the box?

    It sort of feels like that's the subtext of these briefings - the scientists basically trying to push the government to write the cheques needed to close the whole country down (without being too openly contradictory to the strategy du jour) and the politicians knowing that they simply can't, at least not for any length of time.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Pulpstar said:

    Peters seems to be a weak candidate from what I can gather on twitter. OTOH The Dems have a shot at Kansas https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/20201008_KS.pdf
    The line chart in that pdf makes me want to vomit.

    American polling is an abomination.
  • TimT said:

    For me it was the Senate's impeachment hearings. I think that charade not only exposed Trump, but resulted in many non-partisans being disgusted at the Senate GOP's spinelessness.

    But Covid. Covid, Covid. Those of the nails in his coffin.
    1992: Speed kills - and speed (as in rapid response by Clinton campaign) killed Bush the Elder's re-election

    2020: COVID kills - and looks like COVID is killing Trumpsky's re-election
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,606
    IanB2 said:

    "some made-up conjecture " -> the official ONS estimate
    "a figure plucked out of his arse" -> announced by the Education Minister in the Commons earlier

    Otherwise, fair challenge
    Regardless, completely different types of figures that simply shouldn't be quoted on the same page, let alone compared. And if only 9000 students have had it, we should be encouraging them to have more sex.
  • BREAKING NEWS from Politico.com London Playbook

    "One MP tells my POLITICO colleague Emilio Casalicchio in today’s Morning Trade U.K. newsletter that Chief Whip Mark Spencer (himself a farmer) has a burdizzo — a large clamping tool designed to castrate small animals — in his office. It’s not quite a tarantula but it could keep a few of the more excitable male MPs in the government voting lobbies."

    Perhaps over-active use of the burdizzo may go some ways to explaining the rather supine stance taken by majority of Tory backbenchers to the PM's amply-demonstrated lack of fitness for his position?

    Is impotence trumping (in more ways than one?) incompetence?

    I wouldn't have thought that the backbenchers were the obvious candidates for treatment...
  • FoxyFoxy Posts: 51,263

    He's been hounded out of office.
    I thing you are barking up the wrong tree.
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 44,810
    Andy_JS said:

    Darren Grimes is live on the Triggernometry Youtube channel if anyone's interested.

    Thanks for the warning. I will power down.
  • stjohnstjohn Posts: 1,898
    I was shocked and stressed by the 7 pm government presentation. These are difficult times and it’s inevitable that the government’s announcements add to our worries.

    But Rishi Sunak has tipped me into another level of stress with his, “Thanks PM”, schtick. Since when was this an appropriate way to address the highest elected person in our democracy?

    Sunak has become “Will” from “The Inbetweeners” when he addresses the headmaster with, “”Thanks Phil”.

    I now need to go and lie down now. Breathe slowly, calmly, deeply. It will be alright.
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,606
    algarkirk said:

    Sunak's communication style is so Blair like I keep expecting him to announce that we are invading a large middle eastern country. But he is a fantastically good communicator.

    Interesting that the only revelation at the press conference was the aside from Whitty that everyone agrees this can't work. Which is certainly how it seemed to a lot of people - as, Liverpool apart, it barely changes anything.

    I expect they might be targeting smaller local areas of total lockdown where necessary. Maybe more draconian than the national one.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012
    Scott_xP said:

    To which the question must be, are they only keeping him in place now to take all the blame?
    He is so often at the moment in the situation where he is rather obviously the dimmest person in the room. I don' think even the journalists beat him to bottom place this evening.

  • Sunak is being undressed by some people here then, yuck
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    Just imagine how bad it would have been if Dom didn't have his Mission Control up and running to avoid any Comms shitshows...
  • Johnson says lockdown "right now" not right, well that's already a backtracking
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 73,548
    Alistair said:

    You tipped Trump to win Michigan in 2016 as a great value bet, what have you frittered your winnings on?
    Did I? I must confess I don’t remember that. I remember telling Morris Dancer that I was hoping his bet on Trump to win North Carolina was a loser, although I doubted it would be.

    Apparently I’m more awesome than I realised.
  • Scott_xP said:
    I guess they considered level 4, but then decided very very high might not be the clearest name.
  • williamglennwilliamglenn Posts: 54,850

    1992: Speed kills - and speed (as in rapid response by Clinton campaign) killed Bush the Elder's re-election

    2020: COVID kills - and looks like COVID is killing Trumpsky's re-election
    "COVID and speed" sounds like Trump's medical test results.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359
    edited October 2020

    Johnson says lockdown "right now" not right, well that's already a backtracking

    I guess they want to keep it in their back pocket, just in case.
  • RobD said:

    I guess they want to keep it in their back pocket, just in case.
    Sensible, although I think if it comes it will be wasted time. If they want to do it, do it now.
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    I expect they might be targeting smaller local areas of total lockdown where necessary. Maybe more draconian than the national one.
    It feels sub-optimal to make a big announcement fuss today if you know you have to do it all again in a few days when you turn up the heat. It confuses what is already incomprehensible; and today actually changed almost nothing for almost everyone.

  • If we're on the subject, I am currently projecting Biden 291 - 247 Trump.
  • rcs1000rcs1000 Posts: 59,396
    MrEd said:

    Sorry meant Senate race not Siena race :)
    Re homelessness in LA.

    There is a serious homelessness problem in Southern California, but I'm not convinced it's homegrown.

    Simply: there are many parts of the US where the weather is such that being homeless is incredibly difficult. Homeless in Minneapolis or Denver or Salt Lake City - die of cold in the winter. Homeless in Phoenix or Las Vegas or Dallas - die of heat exhaustion in the summer.

    If you speak to the homeless, how many are Californians? And how many are people with mental and drug issues who have migrated to cities which (a) have good opportunities for panhandling and (b) are temperate enough to live in?
  • JohnLilburneJohnLilburne Posts: 6,606

    Johnson says lockdown "right now" not right, well that's already a backtracking

    Maybe a Circuit Breaker is still on the cards.
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,482

    If we're on the subject, I am currently projecting Biden 291 - 247 Trump.

    I'm at 290-161 with 87 too close to call at this time.
  • So these measures are not going to work as I said earlier. Looks like my suggestion that a national lockdown is coming and the experts know it, was not too far off the mark
  • stodgestodge Posts: 14,482

    Sunak is being undressed by some people here then, yuck

    I think I prefer the bumbling clown to the management consultant.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 51,108
    Scott_xP said:
    The government clearly feels it doesnt have the capital to push restrictions any further without buyin from the local authorities themselves. If you listen to the PM opening the Commons debate earlier, he as good as says as much.

    The Tier 2 is actually a marginal relaxation for those areas already under local restrictions, and my guess is that the intention was to move the whole of the North into Tier 3 until Burnham started gathering the locals in opposition. Liverpool seems to have been caught out when the government dropped the rest of the North and is now trying to row back on whatever it said to government in private.

    The irony is that, had local authorities been allowed to lead in the first place, many of them might well have followed public opinion in moving faster toward local restrictions. But since the government has kept everything under very centralised control, they clearly don't feel minded to give a discredited government political cover by rubber stamping something being imposed on them.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 38,127
    We are going to announce a 3 tier system

    How many tiers will it have?

    More than 3...

    Dan Hodges was right. Never mind superforecasters, or forecasters, what the Government need really badly right now is people who can tell the time, and COUNT TO THREE !!!
  • algarkirkalgarkirk Posts: 14,012

    I guess they considered level 4, but then decided very very high might not be the clearest name.
    A little hint in Whitty's remarks of shovelling responsibility/blame down to the local area, which suggests that government thinks there is no credit to get out of this farrago at this stage.

  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,359

    So these measures are not going to work as I said earlier. Looks like my suggestion that a national lockdown is coming and the experts know it, was not too far off the mark

    They have yet to be implemented, so I am not sure how you can confidently claim that.
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