2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday – politicalbetting.com

shadsy said:

Nice tipping!
Obviously, it's stupid that Meghan Markle and The Rock are shorter, but you'd be amazed how much money we've taken on those two already.
I'm also slightly baffled that we've taken much more money on Pence than we have on Biden or Harris.

Isn't its fortunate for you that many people bet with their hearts, not their heads!

I'm reminded of the time in early 2016 that Dr Foxy admitted to having put a tenner on Leicester in August 2015 "because he always did, but had no hope of seeing it back". Or words to that effect.

BluestBlue said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

nichomar said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

And apparently wants to do it

And here's the thing, she will be very good at it

You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.

I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise

I know nothing about her so not underestimating her at all. I have seen enough from Johnson to know that he doesnt want communications to be clear and accurate. He wants a mix of sunny optimism, bluster, culture wars, anti EU, low detail and as little scrutiny as he can get away with. It makes good government communication impossible to achieve.

Why do they need a person such as this, they are in charge, they should communicate and face the questions. The Great Communicator is so good he needs a spokesperson or to put differently he needS to be removed from Communicating because he’s so good.

Every government needs good communicators and she has all the hallmarks of being a success

The government opponents do seem very exercised by her appointment

Because they know she's going to be bloody good at her job

Good at lying then

noneoftheabove said:

IanB2 said:

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

"The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

"This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

“Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

"The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.

Someone who senior politicians trust and speak to off the record regularly reports their real opinions to the rest of us, and that's of no value?

Is there anything to stop a random journalist just consistently making up quotes from sources? I assume very little?

Making up quotes is easy but the alleged source might well complain. This is what got Boris Johnson sacked from The Times but the Telegraph, Conservative Party and indeed the British electorate have lower standards so he is still in a job.

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

noneoftheabove said:

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

So Stratton got the job because she’s friends with Cummings. I am shocked

Allegra Stratton got the post because she has succeeded as director of strategic communications for Rishi Sunak and has a first class c.v

And apparently wants to do it

And here's the thing, she will be very good at it

You think we will see good communication from the government in 2021? Or that it will be better than it has been in 2020 but still pretty poor?

I think the first is an impossible task for any spin doctor or whatever her new role is called. The second should be easy to get to.

I was surprised she took on the appointment but those that underestimate her may be in for a big surprise

I know nothing about her so not underestimating her at all. I have seen enough from Johnson to know that he doesnt want communications to be clear and accurate. He wants a mix of sunny optimism, bluster, culture wars, anti EU, low detail and as little scrutiny as he can get away with. It makes good government communication impossible to achieve.

One aspect of successful communication is that it must contain content. Johnson specialises in jocular bullshit, devoid of any real content,

kle4 said:

I really do find this argument over the spokesperson job to be very strange. I don't see why we need to televise the briefings or elevate the nature of the role at all, and of course we want important things to be communicated by MPs wherever possible, but officials exist as well and I think taking the criticism to essentially be against the idea of a press officer is going a bit far.

The point of the role seems to be to explicitly bypass Parliament.

Another perversion of "Take Back Control"

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm glad the Tories acknowledge now that Johnson is not a master communicator and that in fact he is so rubbish they have to pay somebody else £100,000 a year to do the job for him.

While also paying Cummings to do his thinking for him.

What exactly is the point of BoZo?

RobD said:

I thought it was to move the lobby briefings, which are obviously not done in the chamber, into the open?

It's not replacing the lobby briefings, as I understand it.

felix said:

Extraordinary that with almost every country in Europe struggling with rising case numbers, with tensions between central and local control, public disquiet over liberty restrictions, majority public opinion support for tough measures etc. etc., media here are still trying to convince themselves that uniquely the UK government has got things wrong. Which proves that around 90% of the criticism is pure political point scoring - also the same as everywhere else.

It's the uniqueness point I tend to take issue with, particularly when it comes to the influence our politicians have had in making it as bad as it is. It may be true to a degree, I don't think it can be argued we have done particularly well and some of that is bound to be down to the individuals concerned, but things are rising in other places, and some are doing just as badly or similarly, so without getting anyone off the hook the wider context even without the individuals needs to be considered when judging things.

Scott_xP said:

RobD said:

I thought it was to move the lobby briefings, which are obviously not done in the chamber, into the open?

It's not replacing the lobby briefings, as I understand it.

The plan is to televise the afternoon lobby briefing. This isn't about circumventing parliament, since it was never involved in those briefings in the first place.

Good tips - particularly Mayor Pete!
May be enough to tempt me into opening a Ladbrokes account...

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm glad the Tories acknowledge now that Johnson is not a master communicator and that in fact he is so rubbish they have to pay somebody else £100,000 a year to do the job for him.
.

I just don't buy this line of argument, that essentially this is him getting someone else to do his job. We don't expect MPs and Ministers to conduct press briefings of this nature do we? We expect officials and flunkeys to do it. Some PMs will have been more communicative than Boris, naturally, but are we actually saying such briefings are a major function of the job? Because apparently he and no one has been doing it ever, so how can paying someone to do it be doing his job?

Johnson being a good communicator or not - for the record I think he is a bad one - really seems irrelevant as to whether they televise briefings to the press or not, and a completely separate issue as to whether he communicates with MPs and the public frequently enough and effectively enough.

That seems like a sepatate failing of his, whereas this looks like a pointless employment matter.

Scott_xP said:

RobD said:

The plan is to televise the afternoon lobby briefing. This isn't about circumventing parliament, since it was never involved in those briefings in the first place.

The lobby briefing is about clarifying things that were said in Parliament.

If the TV show never announces anything before it is announced in Parliament, you might be right.

Wanna bet?

I find it hard to believe that the only thing discussed in lobby briefings is proceedings in Parliament. Of course we actually have no idea what is being discussed since it's done behind closed doors.

Nigelb said:

Which is going to be what ?
Not answering questions on behalf of the PM ?

Her last job was bigging up Rishi, at BoZo's expense.

It would be ironic if her appointment hastens BoZo's end

DavidL said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/FraserWhyte81/status/1315203772562505728

Presumably at one of these meetings that she doesn't really remember.

Perhaps he used the movie line - and she took it seriously.

You know....

"One last thing - this meeting never happened".

kle4 said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

The contrast with all of them with Rishi there is pretty hilarious.

"Gave me loads of money" wasn't an option.

shadsy said:

Nice tipping!
Obviously, it's stupid that Meghan Markle and The Rock are shorter, but you'd be amazed how much money we've taken on those two already...

A small stroke of genius.

kle4 said:

felix said:

Extraordinary that with almost every country in Europe struggling with rising case numbers, with tensions between central and local control, public disquiet over liberty restrictions, majority public opinion support for tough measures etc. etc., media here are still trying to convince themselves that uniquely the UK government has got things wrong. Which proves that around 90% of the criticism is pure political point scoring - also the same as everywhere else.

It's the uniqueness point I tend to take issue with, particularly when it comes to the influence our politicians have had in making it as bad as it is. It may be true to a degree, I don't think it can be argued we have done particularly well and some of that is bound to be down to the individuals concerned, but things are rising in other places, and some are doing just as badly or similarly, so without getting anyone off the hook the wider context even without the individuals needs to be considered when judging things.

The uniqueness part is completely irrelevant here - the only country that matters for most people is the UK so it's how we do things that is all important.

The rest of the world is merely useful in identifying things that work and don't work so that we can implement other measures seen to work elsewhere.

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1315193151959764993?s=20

I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?

People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.

I'm not saying simply following what people vaguely say they want is necessarily a good idea. But it is important to note if people are generally supportive when others are claiming on their behalf that they are not. The actual arguments may still run counter to what people claim they support, and should be followed if so, but we do need to at least know what they think as best we can.

Yes. I wonder if there is a shy anti-lockdown effect in such polls.

The feeling that being good involves being pro-lockdown - lives before money.

And being ashamed because you really want to go on a mad bender on the Costa Del Sol. Or ashamed because you are worried for your job.....

eek said:

kle4 said:

felix said:

Extraordinary that with almost every country in Europe struggling with rising case numbers, with tensions between central and local control, public disquiet over liberty restrictions, majority public opinion support for tough measures etc. etc., media here are still trying to convince themselves that uniquely the UK government has got things wrong. Which proves that around 90% of the criticism is pure political point scoring - also the same as everywhere else.

It's the uniqueness point I tend to take issue with, particularly when it comes to the influence our politicians have had in making it as bad as it is. It may be true to a degree, I don't think it can be argued we have done particularly well and some of that is bound to be down to the individuals concerned, but things are rising in other places, and some are doing just as badly or similarly, so without getting anyone off the hook the wider context even without the individuals needs to be considered when judging things.

The uniqueness part is completely irrelevant here - the only country that matters for most people is the UK so it's how we do things that is all important.

The rest of the world is merely useful in identifying things that work and don't work so that we can implement other measures seen to work elsewhere.

Your second sentence is why knowing if we are uniquely good or bad at something is so vital and why the first sentence is wrong. Because if we are right or wrong it is important to know how right or wrong, and if there are lessons elsewhere considering it all in context (not simpy cherry picking one place good or bad which may not be directly applicable), and why we are right or wrong.

kinabalu said:

Ok. But "mascot" gets over the immense and fundamental triviality of him.

It also emphasizes the fact that he's a guy in a costume.

"Boris" is a character, currently inhabited by Alexander de Pfeffel Johnson

https://twitter.com/CllrNickCook/status/1315233923824140293

CorrectHorseBattery said:

42% of the public are spot on.

Johnson was out of his depth from the day he walked into Number 10.

Corbyn lost that election, I wonder if in a few years we will look back at 2019 as the election the Tories only won because Corbyn was so awful and Labour so unappealing (to the electorate)

And you supported Corbyn all the way through to the election and now cannot distance yourself away from him far enough

Strange thing this politics

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

It does. He needs taking down asap.

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

Scott_xP said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm glad the Tories acknowledge now that Johnson is not a master communicator and that in fact he is so rubbish they have to pay somebody else £100,000 a year to do the job for him.

While also paying Cummings to do his thinking for him.

What exactly is the point of BoZo?

Matthew Parris coined the exact and perfect word for what he is in a column a few weeks ago. He is a mascot.

I think figurehead is more apt, in that a mascot is easily discardable or replaced, whereas the figurehead may still be invested in by people emotionally, or important to be seen to be in charge even when they are not.

Ok. But "mascot" gets over the immense and fundamental triviality of him.

That's kind of my issue with it, as while it's fun to regard him as a trivial figure simply dancing to the tune of others, he's not trivial as they still need him more than he needs them (though in the case of Cummings he seemes prepared to pay any political price to retain him), like an incompetent monarch relying on a chief minister who can still hold their life in his hands.

RobD said:

Scott_xP said:

RobD said:

The plan is to televise the afternoon lobby briefing. This isn't about circumventing parliament, since it was never involved in those briefings in the first place.

The lobby briefing is about clarifying things that were said in Parliament.

If the TV show never announces anything before it is announced in Parliament, you might be right.

Wanna bet?

I find it hard to believe that the only thing discussed in lobby briefings is proceedings in Parliament. Of course we actually have no idea what is being discussed since it's done behind closed doors.

And of course, government is already frequently criticised for talking about things before informing parliament. I don't know if that trend has increased in recent years as I feel like every government is criticised for such, but I tend to think it has increased in the 24 hour media age. So perhaps this will aggravate that issue, but it's already a problem. I'm reminded of people objecting to a new licensing matter on the basis that the area in question already has issues with public nuisance and crime and disorder, and losing out because it already exists and not enough proof the new matter will add to it.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

42% of the public are spot on.

Johnson was out of his depth from the day he walked into Number 10.

Corbyn lost that election, I wonder if in a few years we will look back at 2019 as the election the Tories only won because Corbyn was so awful and Labour so unappealing (to the electorate)

? in a few years ?

Man up and take the blame now.

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

It does. He needs taking down asap.

The way the Tories do internal opposition so that the natural successor as PM is always seen as someone within the Conservative Party is really quite brilliant, when you think about it...

BluestBlue said:

YBarddCwsc said:

IanB2 said:

Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

"The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

"This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

“Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

"The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."

Andrew Rawnsley, the head boy at his minor public school, Cambridge .... the rest of the trajectory writes itself.

Does he still have the poster for the boyband with lead singer Tony Blair up in his bedroom ?

I note the article consists entirely of unattributed briefings. As does almost every other article Rawnsley has ever written since his great idol fell.

Indeed. What could possibly be more divisive for the nation than his shitty 'journalism'?

Cummings’ and Johnson’s shitty government?

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

noneoftheabove said:

kle4 said:

HYUFD said:

https://twitter.com/IpsosMORI/status/1315193151959764993?s=20

I'd wondered about this. Is it really just the media whipping up a fringe view to object to, say, the North getting tougher restrictions while its higher there?

People generally want tighter restrictions on others and to keep their own job. Those views are not a good basis for fair or effective governance.

I'm not saying simply following what people vaguely say they want is necessarily a good idea. But it is important to note if people are generally supportive when others are claiming on their behalf that they are not. The actual arguments may still run counter to what people claim they support, and should be followed if so, but we do need to at least know what they think as best we can.

Yes it is fairly clear that people are generally in favour of more restrictions. What would be more telling is how many want to restrict activities that they have themselves participated in or benefit from:

How many restaurant goers want to restrict restaurants?
How many people who are travelling abroad want to restrict foreign travel?
How many single people want social gatherings limited to two households?
How many people using public transport for their job want to restrict public transport?
How many people working in the hotel industry want to restrict hotel stays?

It is trivially easy to support restrictions on the things others do, and wanting to keep the things that are important to you or your own job open. It is not surprising that is where most people are.

I don't agree. The case for restrictions is that the person who would otherwise do whatever is restricted will acquire the infection "and pass it on". If people on an island with no connection to the mainland unanimously wish to do anything at all we can be relaxed about it - infect each other, have orgies together, go ahead! But in practice we are all dependent on what those we may come into contact with are doing.

On your basis, I'd think that every restriction would be rejected - it's a "let it rip" scenario.

Big_G_NorthWales said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

42% of the public are spot on.

Johnson was out of his depth from the day he walked into Number 10.

Corbyn lost that election, I wonder if in a few years we will look back at 2019 as the election the Tories only won because Corbyn was so awful and Labour so unappealing (to the electorate)

And you supported Corbyn all the way through to the election and now cannot distance yourself away from him far enough

Strange thing this politics

More joy in heaven over one sinner etc etc

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

I wonder if Hunt will have another go?

Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.

If Sunak became leader in that scenario, would Hunt return to the front bench, and if so, as what? There might be a case for him at the Home Office and First Secretary of State. But would accept anything other than the FO?

A top four of Sunak, Hunt, Javid and (shudders, but) Gove would be far better than what we have now.

kinabalu said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

It does. He needs taking down asap.

Certainly there is a risk for Starmer he faces Kinnock's fate in 1990, build a poll lead against the incumbent PM, for Thatcher read Boris, and look to be heading for victory only to see it disappear as the Tories elect a new leader and narrowly win the next election, for Major read Sunak

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/CllrNickCook/status/1315233923824140293

I feel sorry for her. I don`t think she`s a stunning intellect and may have acted in shock when she got the positive result (which she may have been surprised about). It left her in London, worried and wanting to get home. And realising that he was in the sh1t for being in parliament. Overall - in panic I`d say.

On the other hand - she`s now clinging on for the financial benefits - and I do mark her down for that.

Trump needed Covid under control and the economy rebounding quickly in the run up to the election . He got neither and the virus is now taking off again in key swing states . Regardless of whether Biden could have done much better the electorate who aren’t part of the Trump Cult are fed up and will vote accordingly .

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

Hunt v Starmer would be the most boring election in history, have we ever had 2 duller party leaders at a general election as those 2 would be? Competence maybe but charisma 0

Scott_xP said:

And as well as hiring someone to do his talking and thinking for him, BoZo also wants to hire someone to do the rest of his day job for him...

https://twitter.com/ShippersUnbound/status/1315202835571716104

He's gone full Radovan Karadic with the hair. He has analogous lack of moral restraint too.

Scott_xP said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm glad the Tories acknowledge now that Johnson is not a master communicator and that in fact he is so rubbish they have to pay somebody else £100,000 a year to do the job for him.

While also paying Cummings to do his thinking for him.

What exactly is the point of BoZo?

The point of Johnson is so that Cummings can get into power. It is clear that Cummings cannot get elected and certainly not win a conservative leadership challenge. Johnson is the dog, and Cummings is the flea, who wants to get into a nice warm house.

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

I wonder if Hunt will have another go?

Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.

Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak

You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

Hunt v Starmer would be the most boring election in history, have we ever had 2 duller party leaders at a general election as those 2 would be? Competence maybe but charisma 0

Yeah, who needs competence when we can have charisma! It's only government, after all.

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

I wonder if Hunt will have another go?

Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.

Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak

You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".

You can get Sunak or Hunt in the final round, you cannot get both as they are both mainly fishing in the same pool of moderate MPs

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

kle4 said:

kinabalu said:

Scott_xP said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

I'm glad the Tories acknowledge now that Johnson is not a master communicator and that in fact he is so rubbish they have to pay somebody else £100,000 a year to do the job for him.

While also paying Cummings to do his thinking for him.

What exactly is the point of BoZo?

Matthew Parris coined the exact and perfect word for what he is in a column a few weeks ago. He is a mascot.

I think figurehead is more apt, in that a mascot is easily discardable or replaced, whereas the figurehead may still be invested in by people emotionally, or important to be seen to be in charge even when they are not.

Ok. But "mascot" gets over the immense and fundamental triviality of him.

That's kind of my issue with it, as while it's fun to regard him as a trivial figure simply dancing to the tune of others, he's not trivial as they still need him more than he needs them (though in the case of Cummings he seemes prepared to pay any political price to retain him), like an incompetent monarch relying on a chief minister who can still hold their life in his hands.

It's not fun to recognize his lack of moral and intellectual substance it's depressing. But of course his position - PM of the UK - is not trivial even if he the man is. To what extent is he bossed around or "managed" by the likes of Cummings and Gove? I don't know. I sense a lot. But, like you say, this does not mean he wouldn't drop them if it suited.

HYUFD said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

Gove would be a better PM than Johnson but of course that likely means Cummings staying around which is the real issue.

Hunt would be the best candidate IMHO, the Starmer of the Tories. That would be an interesting election.

Does any other Tory have the connection to the Red Wall, which I think even Johnson is starting to lose (albeit slowly) going by some polling

Hunt v Starmer would be the most boring election in history, have we ever had 2 duller party leaders at a general election as those 2 would be? Competence maybe but charisma 0

Boring is good. I`d take boring at the moment.

I think we need Bad dad Boris on Monday....but we won't.

https://twitter.com/CrimeLdn/status/1315231062776184833?s=19

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

I wonder if Hunt will have another go?

Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.

Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak

You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".

You can get Sunak or Hunt in the final round, you cannot get both as they are both mainly fishing in the same pool of moderate MPs

Tory MPs are still as split as that are they?

nico679 said:

Trump needed Covid under control and the economy rebounding quickly in the run up to the election . He got neither and the virus is now taking off again in key swing states . Regardless of whether Biden could have done much better the electorate who aren’t part of the Trump Cult are fed up and will vote accordingly .

As elsewhere, the virus appears to be increasing in the US but the pattern has changed. The big cities and heavily populated States are still generally not so bad; it's the flyover States, previously little affected, which are beginning to feel the curse.

CorrectHorseBattery said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

ydoethur said:

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

I wonder if Hunt will have another go?

Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.

Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak

You’re thinking of Party members. We’re talking about MPs, who even after last year’s purge are a lot more moderate and a lot more sensible than the membership as a whole.

They voted in Johnson to win an election. Now he’s done that and killed off Corbynism, they’ll be looking for someone who is capable of running the country effectively. They will know perfectly well Patel and Raab don’t meet that criteria.

MPs last year put Boris first by miles, most of his support last time would split between Patel/Raab and Sunak and in the final round Boris got more than double the number of MPs backing him in the final round than Hunt did.

The right always get a candidate in the final round ie before Boris Leadsom in 2016, Davis in 2005, IDS in 2001, Hague in 1997, Redwood in 1995, Major in 1990, Thatcher in 1975 etc and next time would be no different, there won't be 2 moderates in the last round

If you think Sunak is a moderate, I advise you to study his record more closely.

Like Starmer, he’s not as batshit crazy or as stupid as his current leader, but he’s certainly no moderate.

Sunak is a weather vane, IMHO

That`s a bit rich coming from a Starmer supporter, CHB.

Stocky said:

HYUFD said:

Stocky said:

CorrectHorseBattery said:

HYUFD said:

Scott_xP said:

https://twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/status/1315203067747479552

Suggests Rishi Sunak is the leader in waiting for the Tories if Labour takes and builds a consistent poll lead which it still has not done yet

He's probably the only contender they have, the rest of the cabinet are woeful.

I wonder if Hunt will have another go?

Sunak, Hunt, Gove, Patel.

Which two would go through to the membership ballot? My best guess would be Hunt and Sunak, in which case Sunak probably wins. If Hunt and Gove, Hunt wins.

Hunt would be fishing in the same poll as Sunak ie the moderate wing of the party and is basically Sunak without the charisma or electoral appeal so it won't be him, the hard Brexit right would put up a candidate, probably Patel or Raab who would end up in the final 2 with Sunak

You know far more than I do on this, but my sense is that you are underestimating Hunt. I think he runs on a ticket with Javid as chancellor. This would appeal to sufficient MPs to get through that aspect and then to the membership as a solid, capable solution. Sunak, I hear, is pissing off a lot of MPs who have taken to referring to him as "the boy from accounts".

Can we all please remember that we are not Yanks. Our politicians do not ‘run’ for office, they ‘stand’ for it.

Although I would love to see Donald Trump and Joe Biden both literally running across America to get to Pennsylvania Avenue, so we could have President Harris.