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2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday – politicalbetting.com

SystemSystem Posts: 12,598
edited October 2020 in General
2024 vision. Some 66/1 and 50/1 tips to start off your Sunday – politicalbetting.com

It's a wonder Fox News still invites this man. He keeps spanking them and they ask for more 🙂#PeteButtigieg #PeteOnFox pic.twitter.com/AvRXx2lH1V

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  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,998
    First like Everton.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Might reinvest a bit of the take in Buttigieg if Biden wins. Otoh 66/1 does not look positively generous 4 years out.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,009
    Are we expecting a vacancy on the Democrat side? Assuming Biden wins next month, even if he serves a full term, surely VP Harris will inherit the top slot. Though as the header implies, Mayor Pete might make sense as a trading bet.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,009
    On the GOP side, it is hard to fancy Cotton. If Trump goes down in smoke as the polls indicate, someone less divisive will surely be nominated next time. Then again, Cotton himself has time to pivot before the primaries.
  • IshmaelZIshmaelZ Posts: 21,830
    Just realised this is win, not be candidate. Not tempted.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,009
    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Let's hope we are all still here to collect. Traditionally, ante-post bets used to expire when the punter died. Is that still the case? And how would it work for Betfair?
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited October 2020
    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    On the GOP side, it is hard to fancy Cotton. If Trump goes down in smoke as the polls indicate, someone less divisive will surely be nominated next time. Then again, Cotton himself has time to pivot before the primaries.

    Yes, and if Trump wins he'll try to put up someone from his family, he won't hand over his legacy to a non-relation who never did anything for him.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.

    That said, there’s a high likelihood she will be President or Acting President, at which point Buttigieg would surely be a front runner for her Veep nomination.
  • tlg86tlg86 Posts: 26,998
    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    There is a problem for the Dems. Either their man will look like he really ought not to be president - possibly quite early on - or he’ll just about limp through to 2024 and it might be hard to get him to stand aside.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edmundintokyo said:

    DecrepiterJohnL said:

    On the GOP side, it is hard to fancy Cotton. If Trump goes down in smoke as the polls indicate, someone less divisive will surely be nominated next time. Then again, Cotton himself has time to pivot before the primaries.

    Yes, and if Trump wins he'll try to put up someone from his family, he won't hand over his legacy to a non-relation who never did anything for him.
    In the event of a Republican defeat next month I still think they would be mad to pick anyone other than Nikki Haley in 2024.

    But it’s the Republicans and they are mad.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    tlg86 said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    There is a problem for the Dems. Either their man will look like he really ought not to be president - possibly quite early on - or he’ll just about limp through to 2024 and it might be hard to get him to stand aside.
    There I disagree. Biden has always had other calculations in mind than being President. If he had really wanted the White House, he would have made more of an effort four years ago.

    I don’t think it likely he will want to serve more than one term. If he leaves then he will be able to have some influence over his successor and enjoy a retirement knowing he stopped the madness of Trump.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    edited October 2020
    🚨 🚨 🚨 TIPPING POINT FLIPPENING 🚨 🚨 🚨

    https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2020-election-forecast/

    Now
    NV->PA->WI->[GOAL]->NE2->FL->AZ->NC
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    So Cologne has joined the covid risk zones, and there's a bunch of new measures in force since yesterday. I just read in the local news that the local shopping street is one of the streets where it is compulsory to wear masks in the street. I don't think that message has got through yet, as lots of people were without masks yesterday - including me as I cycled to the park, as I also didn't realise.

    I have the impression that these local lockdown measures are much less politically controversial here than in the UK. Maybe because here they are locally decided. Plus people probably have more confidence that decisions aren't being made by a bunch of blustering chancers who ignore their own rules when they feel like it.

  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    kamski said:

    So Cologne has joined the covid risk zones, and there's a bunch of new measures in force since yesterday. I just read in the local news that the local shopping street is one of the streets where it is compulsory to wear masks in the street. I don't think that message has got through yet, as lots of people were without masks yesterday - including me as I cycled to the park, as I also didn't realise.

    I have the impression that these local lockdown measures are much less politically controversial here than in the UK. Maybe because here they are locally decided. Plus people probably have more confidence that decisions aren't being made by a bunch of blustering chancers who ignore their own rules when they feel like it.

    Although it’s hard to get agitated about rules you don’t know about.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    ydoethur said:

    kamski said:

    So Cologne has joined the covid risk zones, and there's a bunch of new measures in force since yesterday. I just read in the local news that the local shopping street is one of the streets where it is compulsory to wear masks in the street. I don't think that message has got through yet, as lots of people were without masks yesterday - including me as I cycled to the park, as I also didn't realise.

    I have the impression that these local lockdown measures are much less politically controversial here than in the UK. Maybe because here they are locally decided. Plus people probably have more confidence that decisions aren't being made by a bunch of blustering chancers who ignore their own rules when they feel like it.

    Although it’s hard to get agitated about rules you don’t know about.
    I think people know most of the new rules, like not meeting more than 5 people in public - they have been widely publicised. I also knew that there was a Maskenpflicht in shopping streets, I just assumed it only meant the pedestrian zone in the city center. I don't know when the complete list of streets was published, the local article I just read is stamped 2pm yesterday afternoon. Maybe some signs will be put up soon. I suspect the Ordnungsamt are going to be lenient with the enforcement - gently reminding people rather than going straight for the fine.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Betting Post

    Good morning, everyone.

    F1: backed Verstappen to win each way at 4.5 (4.6 with boost). I was somewhat tempted to just back him for the win outright. Looked very impressive in qualifying and the Red Bull's usually closer in race trim.

    Incidentally, happened to see the start time is apparently 1.10pm, an hour earlier than usual.

    https://enormo-haddock.blogspot.com/2020/10/germany-pre-race-2020.html
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
  • Dura_AceDura_Ace Posts: 14,665
    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited October 2020
    Dura_Ace said:



    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
    Don’t say that Dura Ace. The voters are pondering whether to keep giving it to us for free.
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
    All the better to run on "change" after 8 years of old men...

    Presidential politics favours the audacious, and generally if you can raise the money you run. AOC defeated a 10-term incumbent bigwig, and she can raise the money. Serving her time in the party isn't going to get her promoted, so why wait?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    Dura_Ace said:



    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
    A permit to film a family reality show from Attica might have some hurdles to overcome.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Dura_Ace said:



    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
    Also his entire first presidential campaign and Presidency has been about funnelling money into Trump enterprises.

    The Secret Service had to rent out an entire floor at Trump Tower during the election campaign and pay full commercial rate for the privilege.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Yes. These aren’t tips, it’s the old PB game of tipping long shots miles out, hoping to profit one day in crowing points rather than £.
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    Plans are not yet finalised, BBC political correspondent Chris Mason said, but that is likely to mean pubs will close, restaurants could face restrictions, people may even be told not to travel in and out of the area.
    But schools and universities would remain open.

    So - let me see if I’ve got this right.

    During the summer, we all spent lots of time in pubs and restaurants, and transmission rates remained low.

    Then universities went back, solely due to a financial panic that without fees from halls a few unis would become unviable, and cases soar.

    So - in order to reduce the transmission, we close pubs and restaurants, which are not apparently that dangerous and will collapse if they cannot trade. And keep unis open, even though they (a) clearly are and (b) can teach remotely.

    I sometimes think that Leon Trotsky is a much maligned man...
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Yes. These aren’t tips, it’s the old PB game of tipping long shots miles out, hoping to profit one day in crowing points rather than £.
    Apart from the Tom Cotton tip which is solid.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    Pete’s Fox videos are absolutely brilliant. A joy to watch. He has a talent for effortlessly pulling apart the right rarely seen.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    And the other scenario where she is already in the job....
  • ydoethurydoethur Posts: 74,512
    edited October 2020
    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
    All the better to run on "change" after 8 years of old men...

    Presidential politics favours the audacious, and generally if you can raise the money you run. AOC defeated a 10-term incumbent bigwig, and she can raise the money. Serving her time in the party isn't going to get her promoted, so why wait?
    I’m very doubtful if a 35 year old could win the presidency. And if she went too early and failed, not only would she set progressive politics back in America, but she would wreck her own career. Just ask William Hague.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    kamski said:

    So Cologne has joined the covid risk zones, and there's a bunch of new measures in force since yesterday. I just read in the local news that the local shopping street is one of the streets where it is compulsory to wear masks in the street. I don't think that message has got through yet, as lots of people were without masks yesterday - including me as I cycled to the park, as I also didn't realise.

    I have the impression that these local lockdown measures are much less politically controversial here than in the UK. Maybe because here they are locally decided. Plus people probably have more confidence that decisions aren't being made by a bunch of blustering chancers who ignore their own rules when they feel like it.

    In Lombardy most Italians are already doing it in advance of any rules.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Woop, woop, Alaska bet in profit.
  • JonathanJonathan Posts: 22,107
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
    All the better to run on "change" after 8 years of old men...

    Presidential politics favours the audacious, and generally if you can raise the money you run. AOC defeated a 10-term incumbent bigwig, and she can raise the money. Serving her time in the party isn't going to get her promoted, so why wait?
    I’m very doubtful if a 35 year old could win the presidency. And if she went too early and failed, not only would she set progressive politics back in America, but she would wreck her own career. Just ask William Hague.
    Obama went early. He did ok.
  • Morris_DancerMorris_Dancer Posts: 62,776
    Mr. B2, some of us tip long shots days out ;)
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    ydoethur said:

    Plans are not yet finalised, BBC political correspondent Chris Mason said, but that is likely to mean pubs will close, restaurants could face restrictions, people may even be told not to travel in and out of the area.
    But schools and universities would remain open.

    So - let me see if I’ve got this right.

    During the summer, we all spent lots of time in pubs and restaurants, and transmission rates remained low.

    Then universities went back, solely due to a financial panic that without fees from halls a few unis would become unviable, and cases soar.

    So - in order to reduce the transmission, we close pubs and restaurants, which are not apparently that dangerous and will collapse if they cannot trade. And keep unis open, even though they (a) clearly are and (b) can teach remotely.

    I sometimes think that Leon Trotsky is a much maligned man...

    As I am of the centre left, I have an innate desire to curb your personal freedoms. I thus, do not believe, pubs, restaurants, nightclubs and foreign holidays are the low risk vector that the stats suggest. So I am with Boris on this. I say close 'em down!

    Don't forget we were once told by the Government that statistics suggested mask wearing was counter productive.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    edited October 2020
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
    All the better to run on "change" after 8 years of old men...

    Presidential politics favours the audacious, and generally if you can raise the money you run. AOC defeated a 10-term incumbent bigwig, and she can raise the money. Serving her time in the party isn't going to get her promoted, so why wait?
    I’m very doubtful if a 35 year old could win the presidency. And if she went too early and failed, not only would she set progressive politics back in America, but she would wreck her own career. Just ask William Hague.
    If you win the primary of a major party you're at worst a 25% shot for the presidency, that's way closer than the US left has got in... well, ever. If you lose the primary, you create some buzz, sell some books, build a mailing list and build infrastructure for next time.

    Fortune favours the bold, fierce urgency of now etc etc.

  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    edited October 2020
    Figures from Isle of Wight Council reveal that during the last week of September, nearly two hundred people with symptoms were sent over to the Island by ferry (and back) for Coronavirus testing.

    Apparently the testing centre algorithm now has a 75-mile cap to prevent further embarrassment from people being sent long distances, but doesn't stop them being sent on a ferry journey where you are sitting among other passengers.
  • kamskikamski Posts: 6,470
    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    So Cologne has joined the covid risk zones, and there's a bunch of new measures in force since yesterday. I just read in the local news that the local shopping street is one of the streets where it is compulsory to wear masks in the street. I don't think that message has got through yet, as lots of people were without masks yesterday - including me as I cycled to the park, as I also didn't realise.

    I have the impression that these local lockdown measures are much less politically controversial here than in the UK. Maybe because here they are locally decided. Plus people probably have more confidence that decisions aren't being made by a bunch of blustering chancers who ignore their own rules when they feel like it.

    In Lombardy most Italians are already doing it in advance of any rules.
    Mask wearing? Wasn't that compulsory in Lombardy everywhere outside where you can't guarantee physical distance for several months already?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    https://twitter.com/UrbanAchievr/status/1315095077950304256
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,703
    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
    I think she will do surprisingly well whenever she chooses to run. Her political platform is very left wing by US standards but she has real star appeal and is a naturally gifted politician. In the right circumstances she could go all the way.
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    TBF Mrs May pulled the same stunt (although the guy now resides in prison).
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    kamski said:

    IanB2 said:

    kamski said:

    So Cologne has joined the covid risk zones, and there's a bunch of new measures in force since yesterday. I just read in the local news that the local shopping street is one of the streets where it is compulsory to wear masks in the street. I don't think that message has got through yet, as lots of people were without masks yesterday - including me as I cycled to the park, as I also didn't realise.

    I have the impression that these local lockdown measures are much less politically controversial here than in the UK. Maybe because here they are locally decided. Plus people probably have more confidence that decisions aren't being made by a bunch of blustering chancers who ignore their own rules when they feel like it.

    In Lombardy most Italians are already doing it in advance of any rules.
    Mask wearing? Wasn't that compulsory in Lombardy everywhere outside where you can't guarantee physical distance for several months already?
    As I recall, evenings and nighttime only. But I might be wrong if they have tighter rules than the rest of Italy (in which case I join you in having breached rules through ignorance)
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 30,655
    Remember when The Donald claimed he could shoot people on 5th Avenue and still have people vote for him? Sadly in that election he opted not to try it out. Happily this time he's not so coy. Never mind presiding over the deaths of several hundred thousand people, he's opted to try and personally kill a bunch of people by breathing his benevolence upon them.

    Has any candidate in any other major national election run on a Manslaughter ticket?
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    RochdalePioneers said:

    Remember when The Donald claimed he could shoot people on 5th Avenue and still have people vote for him? Sadly in that election he opted not to try it out. Happily this time he's not so coy. Never mind presiding over the deaths of several hundred thousand people, he's opted to try and personally kill a bunch of people by breathing his benevolence upon them.

    Has any candidate in any other major national election run on a Manslaughter ticket?

    Good article by Robert Reich in The Guardian, explaining the 5th Avenue issue.
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,334
    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
    I think she will do surprisingly well whenever she chooses to run. Her political platform is very left wing by US standards but she has real star appeal and is a naturally gifted politician. In the right circumstances she could go all the way.
    FWIW, on a recent edition of Pointless, Richard Osman described her as a future president. He neglected to say that she’s a little left of centre in US terms ...
  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
    Also his entire first presidential campaign and Presidency has been about funnelling money into Trump enterprises.

    The Secret Service had to rent out an entire floor at Trump Tower during the election campaign and pay full commercial rate for the privilege.
    Won't he have to pay back his debts to Putin though? That could come to a few bob.

    PS Alaska price noted with thanks. This isn't just wishful thinking. I really do think it's a stonking good bet.
  • rottenboroughrottenborough Posts: 67,076
    Alistair said:

    Woop, woop, Alaska bet in profit.

    So is mine!!
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    edited October 2020
    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
  • OldKingColeOldKingCole Posts: 35,368
    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    Could get a recall petition. Maybe a tad difficult to organise while under lockdown, but by no means impossible.

    And Good Morning to everyone.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
    Also his entire first presidential campaign and Presidency has been about funnelling money into Trump enterprises.

    The Secret Service had to rent out an entire floor at Trump Tower during the election campaign and pay full commercial rate for the privilege.
    Won't he have to pay back his debts to Putin though? That could come to a few bob.

    PS Alaska price noted with thanks. This isn't just wishful thinking. I really do think it's a stonking good bet.
    Surely he has already proved to be more than value for money to Putin. Debt waived!
  • fox327fox327 Posts: 375
    Coronavirus: WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns: ' “We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Dr Nabarro told The Spectator.'

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Shadsy has taken your advice.
    The Rock really is taking the piss. :smile:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
  • nico679nico679 Posts: 6,277
    Quite amazing stat from the new ABC/Washington Post poll.

    Voting early/mail 58% Biden leads 70% to 26% in that group.

    Election Day 40% Trump leads 64% to 32%

    In the overall poll Biden leads 54% to 42%
  • edmundintokyoedmundintokyo Posts: 17,751
    fox327 said:

    Coronavirus: WHO backflips on virus stance by condemning lockdowns: ' “We in the World Health Organisation do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Dr Nabarro told The Spectator.'

    https://www.news.com.au/world/coronavirus/global/coronavirus-who-backflips-on-virus-stance-by-condemning-lockdowns/news-story/f2188f2aebff1b7b291b297731c3da74

    I think even people who support lockdowns don't generally support them as the *primary means of control of the virus* - they're something you may have to do for a short time if the less disruptive things that successful countries are doing haven't been implemented properly.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    Mexicanpete said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    My serious expectation is that by 2024 President Harris will be in office and unchallengeable on the Democratic side. I simply don't see Biden being able to do 4 years of such a tough job at his age. That make Buttigieg a non starter (although he may well be VP by then).
    On the Republican side you'd like to think that a wave of moral revulsion would overcome the Republicans as has happened for at least some in Labour post Corbyn. But maybe not, there is something in the symptom and not a cause point. But if they go down that road again I don't see them winning in 2024.
  • Northern_AlNorthern_Al Posts: 8,977
    Dura_Ace said:



    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
    "I'm a Trump - Get Me Out of Here"?
  • eekeek Posts: 30,802
    edited October 2020
    IanB2 said:

    Figures from Isle of Wight Council reveal that during the last week of September, nearly two hundred people with symptoms were sent over to the Island by ferry (and back) for Coronavirus testing.

    Apparently the testing centre algorithm now has a 75-mile cap to prevent further embarrassment from people being sent long distances, but doesn't stop them being sent on a ferry journey where you are sitting among other passengers.

    That's what I call the Southend effect from when I was working on a cinema listing system back in the 90s )I lived in Faversham at the time). You can't use as crow fly measurements for distances and you really do need to either use a system with overrides in it or just use Google or Bing's APIs for truthful distances..
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Shadsy has taken your advice.
    The Rock really is taking the piss. :smile:
    Serious rumours of the rock entering politics have been around for a while.

    I certainly wouldn't put it past him to do an Arnie.
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    For people wondering why we are throwing money away on betting on the Dems in Alaska I first considered it when the (sadly no longer publically updated) Morning Consult state by state presidential approval numbers showed a real tightening of Trump's numbers at the start of the year.

    https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,334
    Off topic, but I see the headline in the Sunday Times, ‘Human cost of our taste for avocados’, appears to have been borrowed from The Guardian at peak. Anyone who is currently enjoying a brunch of avocado on sourdough should consequently be reflecting on their complicity in ‘death, rape and beatings’.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    Mexicanpete said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    https://twitter.com/EruditeUnionist/status/1315201333239205889
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    IanB2 said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Yes. These aren’t tips, it’s the old PB game of tipping long shots miles out, hoping to profit one day in crowing points rather than £.
    You didn’t realise the whole header is an exercise in mordant irony ?
    The Trump gag should have been the giveaway.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/EruditeUnionist/status/1315201333239205889

    She looked very shifty in that interview with Sophy
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    DavidL said:

    My serious expectation is that by 2024 President Harris will be in office and unchallengeable on the Democratic side. I simply don't see Biden being able to do 4 years of such a tough job at his age. That make Buttigieg a non starter (although he may well be VP by then).
    On the Republican side you'd like to think that a wave of moral revulsion would overcome the Republicans as has happened for at least some in Labour post Corbyn. But maybe not, there is something in the symptom and not a cause point. But if they go down that road again I don't see them winning in 2024.

    I think there’s a chance if the party engaging in civil war, especially as there is no obvious strong unifying candidate.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Interesting

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1315200974521348099

    So her job is is primarily to explain to an adoring public why the fallout from Brexit isn't as bad as they think it is from experience...

    There must be a non-zero chance she never appears, if backbenchers got their act together
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    The Progress Scot poll is out (they ask a weird 1-10 how Unionist/Independencey are you question)

    https://twitter.com/progressscot/status/1315185527583322112?s=19

  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    https://twitter.com/StigAbell/status/1315191623630888961
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    Scott_xP said:

    Interesting

    https://twitter.com/e_casalicchio/status/1315200974521348099

    So her job is is primarily to explain to an adoring public why the fallout from Brexit isn't as bad as they think it is from experience...

    There must be a non-zero chance she never appears, if backbenchers got their act together

    I understood it was always planned for January

  • Peter_the_PunterPeter_the_Punter Posts: 14,784
    edited October 2020
    Alistair said:

    For people wondering why we are throwing money away on betting on the Dems in Alaska I first considered it when the (sadly no longer publically updated) Morning Consult state by state presidential approval numbers showed a real tightening of Trump's numbers at the start of the year.

    https://morningconsult.com/tracking-trump-2/

    Thanks Alistair. That's an excellent resource.

    I only bet on Alaska because of the quirkiness of the place - a bit like backing a team that is inexplicably rubbish one day and brilliant the next.

    Tottenham supporters will understand what I mean.

    Edit: If you find the Betfair odds on Alaska a bit too mean, another way to kind of do it is through Sporting Index and their 'States Won Supremacy' market. That pays well if Biden steals a number of States with low ECV, such as Alaska, Iowa etc
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Shadsy has taken your advice.
    The Rock really is taking the piss. :smile:
    Serious rumours of the rock entering politics have been around for a while.

    I certainly wouldn't put it past him to do an Arnie.
    Oh, he’s not a bad bet for governor sometime in the future, but 25/1 for next Pres ? Rofl.
  • OnlyLivingBoyOnlyLivingBoy Posts: 16,703
    ThomasNashe said:

    OnlyLivingBoy said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    ydoethur said:

    edmundintokyo said:

    I think Shadsy knows what he's doing.

    If Biden loses then Mayor Pete is better than 66/1 but he still has a total lack of experience, and there's plenty of time for a competitor to show up.

    If Biden wins then he presumably gets an administration job where he gets to shine but he has to somehow get past Kamala. She's the presumptive successor to Biden but Pete can't really run against Biden's record (unless he picks a fight and strategically flounces) so it's not at all clear how he dislodges her. And this all assumes Biden steps aside: He's been running for president for decades, I doubt he'd give it up just because he's old.

    I don’t think Harris is a cert for the Dem nomination in 2024 unless she is President at the time. She isn’t the most popular of candidates, as we saw in the primaries.
    She's not a dead cert, but if she wants to represent the Biden Continuation lane I think she'll be hard to shift from it. The obvious way to run against her is from the left, which is very much where Mayor Pete isn't.
    Fair point. But the ongoing popularity of Sanders doesn’t say much for the vitality of the younger members of the American left wing.
    There's AOC for starters, but alternatively any ambitious Dem from outside the administration could run to the left of the (hypothetical) Biden administration, it won't be hard to find things that are popular among Dems that Biden/Harris didn't get done.
    She would be barely eligible (by about a week) in 2024. I don’t see her mounting a challenge until around 2036 if I’m honest.
    I think she will do surprisingly well whenever she chooses to run. Her political platform is very left wing by US standards but she has real star appeal and is a naturally gifted politician. In the right circumstances she could go all the way.
    FWIW, on a recent edition of Pointless, Richard Osman described her as a future president. He neglected to say that she’s a little left of centre in US terms ...
    In some ways AOC reminds me of Trump, in the sense that she makes other politicians sound like politicians. That is a huge gift.
  • DecrepiterJohnLDecrepiterJohnL Posts: 32,009
    Peter_the_Punter said:

    Alistair said:

    Dura_Ace said:



    ydoethur said:

    If Trump loses next month I don’t think he’ll run in 2024, I suspect he’ll be mired in legal and financial problems for years the moment he ceases to be President. A man who only paid $750 in taxes in 2016 is a man who really needs a high paying private sector job and not a government salary for the foreseeable future

    Ouch, Mr Eagles.

    Trump isn't going to have any financial problems if he loses. Every network and streaming service would pay billions for Trump family reality show.
    Also his entire first presidential campaign and Presidency has been about funnelling money into Trump enterprises.

    The Secret Service had to rent out an entire floor at Trump Tower during the election campaign and pay full commercial rate for the privilege.
    Won't he have to pay back his debts to Putin though? That could come to a few bob.

    PS Alaska price noted with thanks. This isn't just wishful thinking. I really do think it's a stonking good bet.
    The New York Times ran a series on the murky world of Trump's finances, including money from Las Vegas.
    https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/10/09/us/donald-trump-taxes-las-vegas.html

    What is also interesting from that story is that in America these days, the private sector is involved in building new railways in a way not seen over here.
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Nigelb said:

    Alistair said:

    Nigelb said:

    rcs1000 said:

    Four years out...

    SELL EVERYONE

    Shadsy has taken your advice.
    The Rock really is taking the piss. :smile:
    Serious rumours of the rock entering politics have been around for a while.

    I certainly wouldn't put it past him to do an Arnie.
    Oh, he’s not a bad bet for governor sometime in the future, but 25/1 for next Pres ? Rofl.
    Oh... Yeah, that's taking the piss.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1315201587325923329

    https://twitter.com/jimayr/status/1315204968878608385
  • ThomasNasheThomasNashe Posts: 5,334
    Alistair said:

    The Progress Scot poll is out (they ask a weird 1-10 how Unionist/Independencey are you question)

    https://twitter.com/progressscot/status/1315185527583322112?s=19

    Presumably 10 on the independence scale is those who thought Braveheart was a documentary?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/EruditeUnionist/status/1315201333239205889

    Did she mean Alex Salmond and behaviour ?
    Doesn’t seem the right occasion to be venturing such gags.
  • Big_G_NorthWalesBig_G_NorthWales Posts: 66,275
    Lisa Nandy struggling on Marr
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 23,670
    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1315201587325923329

    https://twitter.com/jimayr/status/1315204968878608385

    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 79,874
    Alistair said:

    The Progress Scot poll is out (they ask a weird 1-10 how Unionist/Independencey are you question)

    https://twitter.com/progressscot/status/1315185527583322112?s=19

    Massively driven by pro EU sentiment I'd guess for the switchers. It should hold up when Johnson denies the request from Sturgeon.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Alistair said:

    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.

    And I am sure Eck will be grateful for it airing on National TV...
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1314979602633236481

    https://twitter.com/nycsouthpaw/status/1314982674747011073
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    malcolmg said:

    Mexicanpete said:

    IanB2 said:

    An imaginative defence from Ms Ferrier, now blaming the virus itself for making her act “out of character”

    Off topic

    Genius from Nippy. Ferrier has been chucked out of the party and encouraged to apply to the Chiltern Hundreds. She won't go! Once all this Covid nonsense has subsided, she can quietly return to the fold under the cover of darkness.
    SNP are not like the Tories, her tea is out from SNP perspective but looks like she is going to stick it out and get paid till 2024 and pick up the expenses, pension etc. She could join the Tories and no-one would notice the difference, would be among friends.
    PS; Sturgeon will be needing a job soon herself.
    I am not sure what you mean by your P.S. statement.

    Ferrier would be also better advised to STFU and not speak to the Scottish Sun.
    Sturgeon is in the crap with her failed attempt to put Salmond out of politics. The lies and cover ups are unravelling, her husband's involvement along with the unionist civil servants etc are all coming home to roost.
    Ferrier should indeed stay quiet , given she is 60 , sticking it out for next 4 years will take her close to retirement and be worth in region of half a million, nice job being an MP, any other profession you would be out on your ear.
    I see the attraction of Nicola. Nicola calmly attracts voters not necessarily of the independence faith.

    I don't see Salmond as the political titan he see himself to be. He is a Poundland Trotskyist Trump or Johnson. If anyone can derail the SNP he is your man.
    They tried to have him locked up for nothing, I hope they get what they deserve, though they are more likely to make more millions instead.
    I followed the case, and I was surprised by the verdict.

    I personally have no desire to see Salmond lynched. At the very least, however, he appeared to be unacceptably predatory. He displayed the same behaviour towards women we rightly call out from Trump and Johnson.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    I understood it was always planned for January

    Probably true, which reinforces the point it's a Brexit ploy, not a Covid one.
  • Scott_xPScott_xP Posts: 39,389
    https://twitter.com/benrileysmith/status/1315023232802660357
  • IanB2IanB2 Posts: 52,529
    Rawnsley: "We are heading into what threatens to be a bleak winter, not with a spirit of national unity but with divisions on stark display. Between north and south. Between young and old. Between lives and livelihoods. Between those (a shrivelling band) who still invest faith in Mr Johnson and those (a now much larger group) who don’t. Between government and opposition. Between scientist and scientist. Between Westminster and local government. Between cabinet member and cabinet member. And between prime minister and his own party."

    "The tide of infection is swelling again and the government still has not built sea walls anything like capable of holding it back. At the heart of that failure is the lack of an adequate regime for testing, tracing and isolating. That, along with all the other blunders, has cost the government trust, credibility and authority."

    "This weekend’s mess of cabinet wrangling, prime ministerial indecision and muddled messaging is over the plan to split England into three tiers, with differing severities of restriction depending on the region. This scheme leaked days ago, but it still has not been officially launched because the cabinet is split."

    “Boris is getting into a perfect storm,” remarks one senior Tory.

    "The big concern is that decision-making is being distorted by Number 10’s party management problems and that will result in bad outcomes. Several independent sources tell me the process has become polluted by Mr Johnson’s fright of revolt by the Tory right. There is now no obvious decision that Mr Johnson can take that will keep all of his party happy, arrest the resurgence of the virus and reunify the country. Whatever he does now, there will be no consensus behind it."
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    My serious expectation is that by 2024 President Harris will be in office and unchallengeable on the Democratic side. I simply don't see Biden being able to do 4 years of such a tough job at his age. That make Buttigieg a non starter (although he may well be VP by then).
    On the Republican side you'd like to think that a wave of moral revulsion would overcome the Republicans as has happened for at least some in Labour post Corbyn. But maybe not, there is something in the symptom and not a cause point. But if they go down that road again I don't see them winning in 2024.

    I think there’s a chance if the party engaging in civil war, especially as there is no obvious strong unifying candidate.
    I presume you mean the republicans? And yes, small state, low tax, pro business, moderate Republicans must be feeling as politically homeless now as sane centre left voters did with Corbyn. If the Republicans are going to carry on down the racist, xenophobic, gun crazy, chaotic path that Trump has followed a new party may well spring up.
  • malcolmgmalcolmg Posts: 44,575
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/EruditeUnionist/status/1315201333239205889

    She looked very shifty in that interview with Sophy
    she has been lying through her teeth on it , she is up to her neck in the plot with the Head of Civil service and associated partners, can only be a matter of time as the details are unravelling and lies are getting harder and harder to justify.
  • DavidLDavidL Posts: 56,000
    Alistair said:

    Scott_xP said:

    https://twitter.com/ChrisMusson/status/1315201587325923329

    https://twitter.com/jimayr/status/1315204968878608385

    That's like literally the entire argument that Salmondistas have made. The SNP should not have investigated the allegations.
    Is there a prescriptive period on collusion? She seems to have been more than content to do so whilst he was leader and she was the loyal deputy.

    Even by Scottish standards it is truly astonishing that her husband is still in post. Its almost as if she needs him to cover her back for her.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 79,668
    DavidL said:

    Nigelb said:

    DavidL said:

    My serious expectation is that by 2024 President Harris will be in office and unchallengeable on the Democratic side. I simply don't see Biden being able to do 4 years of such a tough job at his age. That make Buttigieg a non starter (although he may well be VP by then).
    On the Republican side you'd like to think that a wave of moral revulsion would overcome the Republicans as has happened for at least some in Labour post Corbyn. But maybe not, there is something in the symptom and not a cause point. But if they go down that road again I don't see them winning in 2024.

    I think there’s a chance if the party engaging in civil war, especially as there is no obvious strong unifying candidate.
    I presume you mean the republicans? And yes, small state, low tax, pro business, moderate Republicans must be feeling as politically homeless now as sane centre left voters did with Corbyn. If the Republicans are going to carry on down the racist, xenophobic, gun crazy, chaotic path that Trump has followed a new party may well spring up.
    What, Change US ? :smile:
  • MexicanpeteMexicanpete Posts: 33,379
    Big_G_NorthWales said:

    Lisa Nandy struggling on Marr

    How, say?
This discussion has been closed.

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