politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » One Year To Go: How do Dave and Ed compare to their predece

Neil said:

If they are that bad they'll have trouble getting into the run-off.

SandyRentool said:

NickPalmer said:

edmundintokyo said:

Socrates said:

The UK opposes Juncker:

http://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/may/27/david-cameron-jean-claude-juncker-eu-top-job

But Germany backs him. Let's see who genuinely has influence in the EU.

Cameron is probably quite anxious to be on the losing side, because none of the plausible candidates are likely to be popular with the British tabloids, so when they have a go at the winner he'll want it to look like somebody else was responsible for putting them there.

That said, this is more a Heads of State vs Parliament bun-fight than a UK vs Germany one. Where the Parliament got lucky this time was that the winning candidate happened to be the kind of person the Heads of State would have wanted in the job anyhow; He's EPP, like many of them, and he's a low-key fixer type who's good at smoothing over differences rather than somebody who will eclipse them and try to make them things they don't want to do.

What'll be at the back of their minds is that once they pick him this time, the precedent is set, and if the EPP loses next time they'll have a very hard time not picking the next winner, even if it's someone more charismatic and potentially troublesome. This will be even harder to resist if they've won a contested primary. This is probably what's behind going through the motions of affecting to look at other candidates, even though he's the kind of person they'd have wanted anyhow, and in many cases they've already endorsed him.

Good analysis. I think that because British media coverage of the contest was so crap, people here underestimate the extent to which many on the Continent got interested in the rival candidates and their debates - imagine if after the 2010 debates the hung Parliament had resulted in, say, Hague or Cable becoming PM instead of any of the three who people had been watching. Juncker's a well-known figure in most countries, whereas in Britain he's hardly mentioned or known, though no doubt he'll graduate to new Demon King figure if he gets the job.

Nick, what is wrong with the system is that you have five candidates standing for the post of president, rather than prime minister, and yet you can only vote for them in a very indirect way via electing MEPs. For public engagement in the system, each voter across europe should have been issued with a ballot paper listing the five candidates and asking them to make their choice. Isn't that how most democracies elect a president? Then we wouldn't be in this 'smoke filled room' situation after the event, with non-candidates being proposed for the job.

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Tissue_Price said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

If they are that bad they'll have trouble getting into the run-off.

The competition is likely to be François Hollande.

So what price Le Pen in 2017? 12/1 too skinny?

Pulpstar said:

Who would the choices be:

Juncker, Schulz, Verhofstadt, Keller, Tsipras ?

Richard_Nabavi said:

There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

Pulpstar said:

@Peter_From_Putney I've got a poke on him to become Mayor of London, but given the way London is looking the Conservative side of that contest is almost looking an irrelevancy anyway.

peter_from_putney said:

O/T

Is it too late to suggest a thread on the next BBC Trust Chairman?
Possibly it is, as Seb Coe is installed as the hot 1/4 favourite with Paddy Power, surprisingly the only bookie to be offering this market. He is said to have the support of both David Cameron and especially and crucially George Osborne.

That said his appointment is being vigourously opposed by Peter Oborne in the Daily Telegraph :

http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100274007/seb-coe-is-a-very-nice-man-but-he-would-be-a-disastrous-chairman-of-the-bbc-trust/

FWIW my money's on Marjorie Scardino at 14/1 where those nice people at PP have allowed me to stake the princely sum of £1.21

DavidL said:

My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Pulpstar said:

@Peter_From_Putney I've got a poke on him to become Mayor of London, but given the way London is looking the Conservative side of that contest is almost looking an irrelevancy anyway.

Far from it. If Miliband becomes PM, he will soon become excruciatingly unpopular, taking Labour with him. A Conservative candidate may well then become firm favourite for the mayoralty.

Pulpstar said:

On the flip side our Khan betslips look even better with a continuation of the coalition ?

edmundintokyo said:

DavidL said:

My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead.

The rumour on the internets a while back was that Juncker really wanted a different job, so the move would be to put him up as EPP candidate, then have someone else like Katainen (who mysteriously resigned right after the nomination to make himself available for an unspecified international post) take the Commission President job. It would be hard for parliament to reject the proposal if the candidate they wanted had just declared himself otherwise engaged...

But as things stand Juncker doesn't seem to be ready to roll over, unless the whole thing has been very elaborately choreographed...

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.

ToryJim said:

edmundintokyo said:

DavidL said:

My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead.

The rumour on the internets a while back was that Juncker really wanted a different job, so the move would be to put him up as EPP candidate, then have someone else like Katainen (who mysteriously resigned right after the nomination to make himself available for an unspecified international post) take the Commission President job. It would be hard for parliament to reject the proposal if the candidate they wanted had just declared himself otherwise engaged...

But as things stand Juncker doesn't seem to be ready to roll over, unless the whole thing has been very elaborately choreographed...

Well Herman van Rompuy's job is available in November. I'm sure that will be another bunfight.

Sean_F said:

I can't see any way back for Hollande. Two years into his Presidency, his approval rating is 18%. That's about 15% worse than George W Bush at the end of his Presidency.

The man is just so pitifully lacking in competence, dignity, charisma, or any of the qualities that one might look for in a leader.

Maybe, just maybe, he might have made an effective local councillor, but I'd say that's his limit.

Neil said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.

Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.

Richard_Nabavi said:

Sean_F said:

I can't see any way back for Hollande. Two years into his Presidency, his approval rating is 18%. That's about 15% worse than George W Bush at the end of his Presidency.

The man is just so pitifully lacking in competence, dignity, charisma, or any of the qualities that one might look for in a leader.

Maybe, just maybe, he might have made an effective local councillor, but I'd say that's his limit.

He was elected on a blatantly fraudulent prospectus, so the disaster of the French economy and jobs market, and his ensuing unpopularity, was completely predictable. It is for exactly the same reason that I am so sure that Miliband will rapidly become disastrously unpopular, if he becomes PM.

edmundintokyo said:

Neil said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.

Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.

Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

Neil said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.

Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.

Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...

I like the idea but it may not play well with the British electorate.

HurstLlama said:

edmundintokyo said:

Neil said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.

Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.

Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...

I like the idea but it may not play well with the British electorate.

edmundintokyo said:

DavidL said:

JohnO said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.

Wonder whether she might be drafted from the IMF to EU Commission President. I understand she gets on very well with Mrs Merkel, clearly also does with George Osborne (hence Dave) and would be an extremely attractive public Euro-face.

Only problem - and a possibly insurmountable one - is Hollande.

Plus the fact that President of the Commission is nothing like the job it was. It would be a demotion from her current post. I think President of France will be a lot more tempting.

I guess this is the part of the problem trying to recruit somebody to big-foot Juncker. It's worth a lot more to him than it is to anyone else, because it's only an influential job if you got elected to it.

GIN1138 said:

ToryJim said:

Well Herman van Rompuy's job is available in November. I'm sure that will be another bunfight.

Who is he? That's what I want to know!

SandyRentool said:

<

Nick, what is wrong with the system is that you have five candidates standing for the post of president, rather than prime minister, and yet you can only vote for them in a very indirect way via electing MEPs. For public engagement in the system, each voter across europe should have been issued with a ballot paper listing the five candidates and asking them to make their choice. Isn't that how most democracies elect a president? Then we wouldn't be in this 'smoke filled room' situation after the event, with non-candidates being proposed for the job.

Lennon said:

Pulpstar said:

How did UKIP do in South Cambridgeshire at the Euros ?

Tory 15k to UKIPs 11k (http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/sites/chelmsford.gov.uk/files/files/files/documents/files/regional results breakdown.pdf)

Lennon said:

Pulpstar said:

Lennon said:

Pulpstar said:

How did UKIP do in South Cambridgeshire at the Euros ?

Tory 15k to UKIPs 11k (http://www.chelmsford.gov.uk/sites/chelmsford.gov.uk/files/files/files/documents/files/regional results breakdown.pdf)

Easy Conservative By-Election victory then.

Assuming that the Parliamentary Constituency and the District Council are reasonably closely aligned (not looked at the comparable maps)

Socrates said:

I also note in that piece the Guardian described UKIP as "far right". Idiots.

MrJones said:

peter_from_putney said:

ToryJim said:

@peter_from_putney‌
As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.

OK Jim ..... sorry I missed your earlier post on this.

I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw Oborne was suggesting Robert Winston - a dyed in the wool Labour supporter. Do we really want another socialist heading up what is already a hugely left-biased BBC.

Given the amount of power the BBC has to influence public opinion i think the governors should be elected to enforce neutrality.

old_labour said:

Missing yellow box leads to road rage at ‘London’s worst junction’

Pulpstar said:

old_labour said:

Missing yellow box leads to road rage at ‘London’s worst junction’

Sounds like a job for @Avery

RodCrosby said:

Re Newark poll

remember these were the differentials from the final polls for Eastleigh...

UKIP +6.8%
Con -3.7%
Lab -2.0%
LD 0.0%

Just for fun (well, sort of) if we apply these to the Newark poll we have:-

UKIP 34.8%
Con 32.3%
Lab 25.0%
LD 5.0%

A UKIP win by 900 votes (on a 50% turnout)

Of course, DYOR...

Neil said:

edmundintokyo said:

Neil said:

ToryJim said:

Richard_Nabavi said:

Neil said:

I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?

Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.

I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.

Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.

Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...

The best suggestion I have read on pbc this year!

Do it, Dave!

(And ennoble JohnO as Lord JohnO of Bournemouth while you are at it.)

ToryJim said:

RodCrosby said:

Re Newark poll

remember these were the differentials from the final polls for Eastleigh...

UKIP +6.8%
Con -3.7%
Lab -2.0%
LD 0.0%

Just for fun (well, sort of) if we apply these to the Newark poll we have:-

UKIP 34.8%
Con 32.3%
Lab 25.0%
LD 5.0%

A UKIP win by 900 votes (on a 50% turnout)

Of course, DYOR...

There may of course be further polls.

Tapestry said:

Paterson is losing credibility in his constituency fast. Locals are highly concerned about fracking, and he's not attending any of their public meetings, preferring to hide away in his office. The anger is brewing. It could well boil over, and he won't get any support come election time.

Leaflets are out there demanding he be removed. People are saying,'where's our MP?'. His problem is that as the primary proponent of fracking the UK, he can hardly turn up at meetings where 100% of attendees are determined to stop the drilling in their constituencies. He's painted himself into a corner. If UKIP go anti-fracking, he'd be in trouble. A local independent is being planned to unseat him otherwise. Watch this space.

GeoffM said:

Oh sodding wonderful.

I made these (just using blank faceplates, not combined with plugs) two years ago when I did up the rental place. In a 'miserable git' sort of way I rather hope these sink without trace - I'll kick myself if they take off.