bwin's Newark odds have shifted sharply - Labour in from 34-1 to 19-1, UKIP from 4 to 3.5, Cons 1.15 to 1.3. Meanwhile on the ground I gather the Labour campaign has stepped up a gear, though not to Tory levels.
"The Tories are on course to win next weeks key Newark by election and give UKIP a hammering..."
Is TN-D OGH?
Will people be saying it's all over for UKIP if they dont win this?
Almost certainly, Mr. Sam. Denizen's of this site already know what a massive disaster the 22/5/14 was for UKIP (remember, we were told so by OGH who even produced a graph to prove it). Therefore, I am sure many will recognise that if UKIP don't win at Newark that will really put the tin hat on their chances of ever being even a minor force in British politics. Said people will also no doubt be telling us that the LIB Dems are just having a temporary blip in popularity and will soon e storming back to the low to mid-twenties in the polls.
bwin's Newark odds have shifted sharply - Labour in from 34-1 to 19-1, UKIP from 4 to 3.5, Cons 1.15 to 1.3. Meanwhile on the ground I gather the Labour campaign has stepped up a gear, though not to Tory levels.
Labour shortening ? Huh ?
Selective.. still get 27-1 with betfair or 25-1 with Skybet (was 20-1 yesterday).
Bwin were 25-1 y'day, they went to market best 33-1 to presumably catch a bit of £ which looks to have worked and so now 18-1 albeit others have shorter odds and haven't budged throughout that shake?
Just got back from lunch in Paris with an old friend. Very worried about the state of the UMP: his view is all the leading candidates are so awful that there is a real risk that Marine Le Pen might win a run off against any of them.
If they are that bad they'll have trouble getting into the run-off.
His view was that Hollande is so unpopular that there's just no way back for him.
I forget all the names but he said Sarko is loathed, Villepine (sp?) has never been elected or had a proper job, one of the other guys is way too junior & Fiton is just a faceless bureaucrat. None of them will inspire - while Le Pen is very charismatic and an extremely left wing populist (with the exception of the France for the French crap) who could combine a lot of protest votes + rural votes + anti-establishment + deep red.
LOL Le Pen left wing. She is very conservative, just the French have different principles and traditions to us so what she wants to conserve is different to us, that's what real diversity is. Vive Le France, Vive Le Difference, Vive Le Pen.
Anyone would think the Conservatives supported repealing the corn laws, and the Tories were right of course to oppose the repeal as the newly rural unemployed flooded into industrial ghettos. Easy for the Liberal industrialists to dress up their self interest in cheap labour in high sounding ideals, a lot like immigration.
"The Tories are on course to win next weeks key Newark by election and give UKIP a hammering..."
Is TN-D OGH?
Will people be saying it's all over for UKIP if they dont win this?
Some, of course. More likely it will just temper optimism from UKIPers and pessimism from Tories somewhat, as all reflect that as amazing as UKIP have been doing, they face a hell of a task to get even one MP even so. I doubt most would say they have no chance of it though.
bwin's Newark odds have shifted sharply - Labour in from 34-1 to 19-1, UKIP from 4 to 3.5, Cons 1.15 to 1.3. Meanwhile on the ground I gather the Labour campaign has stepped up a gear, though not to Tory levels.
Labour shortening ? Huh ?
Selective.. still get 27-1 with betfair or 25-1 with Skybet (was 20-1 yesterday).
Bwin were 25-1 y'day, they went to market best 33-1 to presumably catch a bit of £ which looks to have worked and so now 18-1 albeit others have shorter odds and haven't budged throughout that shake?
Isn't using the word "hammering" somewhat unwise given we have just one single poll giving Con an 8% lead?
Sure, Con are clear favourites but they are available at 1.31 on Betfair - that doesn't suggest to me that Con can be confident of giving UKIP a hammering.
I suspect if Dave was offered any Con win - even just by a few votes - he would very gratefully take it.
bwin's Newark odds have shifted sharply - Labour in from 34-1 to 19-1, UKIP from 4 to 3.5, Cons 1.15 to 1.3. Meanwhile on the ground I gather the Labour campaign has stepped up a gear, though not to Tory levels.
Labour shortening ? Huh ?
Selective.. still get 27-1 with betfair or 25-1 with Skybet (was 20-1 yesterday).
Bwin were 25-1 y'day, they went to market best 33-1 to presumably catch a bit of £ which looks to have worked and so now 18-1 albeit others have shorter odds and haven't budged throughout that shake?
bwin are absolute jokers, I wouldnt take them as a mark on anything honestly.
UKIP just traded for relatively big money at 4.4 (£500).. of course this doesnt mean its necessarily good for them as someone has taken the bet and the price has barely moved
Could just as easy say someone has backed them at 2/7 not to win
Channel 4 News pointing out that although people can get things removed from Google search engines in the UK and Europe, the links will still be available on Google.com. So a bit of a waste of time.
Tory vote at 494 is much lower than expected and Labour much higher at 3,451.
Are you thinking what I'm thinking?
Exactly. Where were the Tory agents ?
True, just unrealistic to expect some people to act in an honourable and gentlemanly manner, a lower class of people. Or as some call it the electoral geography favouring labour.
Clegg may have a future as governor of Gibraltar then. Or St Helena. Appropriate for a great would-be-unifier of Europe.
Sending Clegg off to be Governor of St. Helena has a certain appeal and Longwood House, I think, is still standing. However, it might be unfair on the islanders who seem to be as nice enough bunch as you could wish to meet.
Channel 4 News pointing out that although people can get things removed from Google search engines in the UK and Europe, the links will still be available on Google.com. So a bit of a waste of time.
I think Google is like amazon - the front end may end in .uk, .de etc, but it's the same engine underneath. In amazon's case, the same login and password works on most sites - certainly .com and .uk.
Just tried to put this up on the new thread, but it disappeared just as I pressed post comment. Twitter Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 24s Pls retweet that at 4pm on Monday not only will the Ashcroft National Poll be released but also a poll on the Newark by-election.
Just tried to put this up on the new thread, but it disappeared just as I pressed post comment. Twitter Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 24s Pls retweet that at 4pm on Monday not only will the Ashcroft National Poll be released but also a poll on the Newark by-election.
Sorry about that, hit publish instead of auto-publish later.
It'll be up in an hour or so.
Though I'm sure that's the first ever PB thread to have been written and published at a New Kids On The Block Gig.
The 'winter of discontent' was the last straw in our leaving the UK - read: we were going to anyway, but the winter of 78-79 said NOW!
I wanted to go then too, but I was in love, courting Herself and she didn't want to know about moving abroad (having been born there, I suppose). So heart ruled the brain. I tried again in the nineties but again she would not have it and again heart ruled the brain.
"The Tories are on course to win next weeks key Newark by election and give UKIP a hammering..."
Is TN-D OGH?
Will people be saying it's all over for UKIP if they dont win this?
Almost certainly, Mr. Sam. Denizen's of this site already know what a massive disaster the 22/5/14 was for UKIP (remember, we were told so by OGH who even produced a graph to prove it). Therefore, I am sure many will recognise that if UKIP don't win at Newark that will really put the tin hat on their chances of ever being even a minor force in British politics. Said people will also no doubt be telling us that the LIB Dems are just having a temporary blip in popularity and will soon e storming back to the low to mid-twenties in the polls.
I only just saw that graph of LD MEPs per vote!! Jesus the grapes are sour!
The headline when UKIP won the Euros was that they did worse than expoected against the polling hahahahaha!
Just tried to put this up on the new thread, but it disappeared just as I pressed post comment. Twitter Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 24s Pls retweet that at 4pm on Monday not only will the Ashcroft National Poll be released but also a poll on the Newark by-election.
If Ashcroft has UKIP within 5% of the Tories we should steam in to back them. He has underpolled UKIP in the last 5-6 by elections, sometimes by quite a margin
Channel 4 News pointing out that although people can get things removed from Google search engines in the UK and Europe, the links will still be available on Google.com. So a bit of a waste of time.
I think Google is like amazon - the front end may end in .uk, .de etc, but it's the same engine underneath. In amazon's case, the same login and password works on most sites - certainly .com and .uk.
Didn't a French judge pass a ruling some years back to which Google or Yahoo replied saying it was impossible as the internet was worldwide. The judge still made it work.
Basically, the ISP's were legally bound not to carry some websites. Whether it is .co.uk, .de or .com, if the law says this cannot be in the domain of a country, it can be enacted.
Would you accept if a child pornography site was banned in the UK but the .com version was available ?
The 'winter of discontent' was the last straw in our leaving the UK - read: we were going to anyway, but the winter of 78-79 said NOW!
I wanted to go then too, but I was in love, courting Herself and she didn't want to know about moving abroad (having been born there, I suppose). So heart ruled the brain. I tried again in the nineties but again she would not have it and again heart ruled the brain.
We'd been married 6 months when we went on a look-see trip, as she'd never seen the US and Canada. I'd told her before we got hitched that I saw no purpose for a young couple to stay in the UK when North America offered so much more opportunity. The proposition sold itself.
She left her parents, an identical twin sister in Haywards Heath (which got me into trouble more than once when we were courting), an elder sister and lots of nephews and nieces, aunts and uncles, none of whom had ever seen North America either. I guess she liked me......
Moving was a nightmare - the truck drivers were on strike so we couldn't get our furniture moved, you couldn't buy petrol for the same reason, so we had to sell our cars and rely on rental cars as they always came with a full tank...it was many years before I even wanted to visit the UK again. Catching a flight was also problematic. Even today I have no real desire ever to go there again. I'd like to see my old friends, my old school etc, but it's not worth the aggro of the place - the roads are terrible, the food is awful, the climate worse, and the prices are a nightmare
Chilcot is about to come out sans anything really interesting. Then again, the Tories did not have too amny problems with his Iraq adventure.
It will come out, eventually, without the verbatim of some letters and conversations, but not without anything really interesting. I should be very surprised if it turns out to be yet another whitewash.
That said, I am disgusted that one of the actors has been allowed to be one of the referees. Sir Jeremy Heywood was Blair's principle private secretary at the crucial time. Yes, the bloke who was charged with looking into the Mitchell fiasco but but didn't bother to look at the video's. The man is clearly incompetent or devious and, as Blair's secretary at the time, should have had no role in the Chilcott Enquiry.
Channel 4 News pointing out that although people can get things removed from Google search engines in the UK and Europe, the links will still be available on Google.com. So a bit of a waste of time.
I think Google is like amazon - the front end may end in .uk, .de etc, but it's the same engine underneath. In amazon's case, the same login and password works on most sites - certainly .com and .uk.
Didn't a French judge pass a ruling some years back to which Google or Yahoo replied saying it was impossible as the internet was worldwide. The judge still made it work.
Basically, the ISP's were legally bound not to carry some websites. Whether it is .co.uk, .de or .com, if the law says this cannot be in the domain of a country, it can be enacted.
Would you accept if a child pornography site was banned in the UK but the .com version was available ?
I was merely passing an observation. In the real world if the google.fr site can have personal info redacted, it doesn't (presumably) apply to google.com, which is not based in France, although accesible from there.
Whether that's right or wrong can be debated, but unfortunately if you want personal privacy, you should probably avoid the internet in general. That's just the way it is, French judges or not.
"The Tories are on course to win next weeks key Newark by election and give UKIP a hammering..."
Is TN-D OGH?
Will people be saying it's all over for UKIP if they dont win this?
They won't be saying it's all over but they may say the tide is turning etc
And they will be talking garbage. Much as I would love it to happen there is no way UKIP are ever going to win Newark next Thursday.
Whether they're talking garbage is less relevant than whether it's believed, because if it is believed, that of itself could turn the tide.
Do you really think so?
The flip side of what your saying is that if UKIP win Newark they could expect 10+ seats at the GE thanks to the momentum
Yes, on both counts. Don't know if you remember this, which I wrote back in January. It wasn't a prediction as such but I did think it was a plausible, if extreme, possibility:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so
It's only the third winnable by-election the Tories have had this parliament and even classing Corby as such is stretching it a bit. Presumably Crick didn't go to Eastleigh.
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so
Channel 4 News pointing out that although people can get things removed from Google search engines in the UK and Europe, the links will still be available on Google.com. So a bit of a waste of time.
I think Google is like amazon - the front end may end in .uk, .de etc, but it's the same engine underneath. In amazon's case, the same login and password works on most sites - certainly .com and .uk.
Didn't a French judge pass a ruling some years back to which Google or Yahoo replied saying it was impossible as the internet was worldwide. The judge still made it work.
Basically, the ISP's were legally bound not to carry some websites. Whether it is .co.uk, .de or .com, if the law says this cannot be in the domain of a country, it can be enacted.
Would you accept if a child pornography site was banned in the UK but the .com version was available ?
ISPs can block individual sites. They could if ordered block the whole of Google.com though I suspect that would cause a huge amount of trouble for them. What they cannot do is stop google.com from lawfully providing links under US law or some other non-EU law. It is all or nothing. Either the EU accept that google.com is outside their jurisdiction or they block the whole site.
Personally I hope google tell them where to go and stick their censorship.
The 'winter of discontent' was the last straw in our leaving the UK - read: we were going to anyway, but the winter of 78-79 said NOW!
I wanted to go then too, but I was in love, courting Herself and she didn't want to know about moving abroad (having been born there, I suppose). So heart ruled the brain. I tried again in the nineties but again she would not have it and again heart ruled the brain.
We'd been married 6 months when we went on a look-see trip, as she'd never seen the US and Canada. I'd told her before we got hitched that I saw no purpose for a young couple to stay in the UK when North America offered so much more opportunity. The proposition sold itself.
She left her parents, an identical twin sister in Haywards Heath (which got me into trouble more than once when we were courting), an elder sister and lots of nephews and nieces, aunts and uncles, none of whom had ever seen North America either. I guess she liked me......
Moving was a nightmare - the truck drivers were on strike so we couldn't get our furniture moved, you couldn't buy petrol for the same reason, so we had to sell our cars and rely on rental cars as they always came with a full tank...it was many years before I even wanted to visit the UK again. Catching a flight was also problematic. Even today I have no real desire ever to go there again. I'd like to see my old friends, my old school etc, but it's not worth the aggro of the place - the roads are terrible, the food is awful, the climate worse, and the prices are a nightmare
On the good side - We're still here....
To be fair, Mr. B.. The food in restaurants and, most, pubs in the UK is a lot better these days. Still crap unless you know where you are going, mind (Brake Brothers and microwaves dominate the pub food trade), but a lot better than it was in the late seventies. The roads are terrible (and getting worse), the prices are getting silly (£5.20 for a pint of Guinness they wanted the other day), and the climate - well that hasn't changed. I am sure your missus would notice the changes that have been made to Haywards Heath, a pseudo town if ever there was one, but aside from the new estates and 14 times as much traffic not much changed since the late 70's (tell her the Star is still going and the curry house across the road).
Still it could be worse. Instead of living 7 miles from the centre of Haywards Heath I could be living 7 miles from the centre of Atlanta.
"The Tories are on course to win next weeks key Newark by election and give UKIP a hammering..."
Is TN-D OGH?
Will people be saying it's all over for UKIP if they dont win this?
They won't be saying it's all over but they may say the tide is turning etc
And they will be talking garbage. Much as I would love it to happen there is no way UKIP are ever going to win Newark next Thursday.
Whether they're talking garbage is less relevant than whether it's believed, because if it is believed, that of itself could turn the tide.
Do you really think so?
The flip side of what your saying is that if UKIP win Newark they could expect 10+ seats at the GE thanks to the momentum
Yes, on both counts. Don't know if you remember this, which I wrote back in January. It wasn't a prediction as such but I did think it was a plausible, if extreme, possibility:
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so
He's probably not been near the UKIP HQ fearing he might be hit over the head again; this time with a hammer.
Incidentally I've learned that Nigel Farage will be in Newark tomorrow, followed by Diane James on Sunday and Patrick O'Flynn on Monday.
The 'winter of discontent' was the last straw in our leaving the UK - read: we were going to anyway, but the winter of 78-79 said NOW!
I wanted to go then too, but I was in love, courting Herself and she didn't want to know about moving abroad (having been born there, I suppose). So heart ruled the brain. I tried again in the nineties but again she would not have it and again heart ruled the brain.
To be fair, Mr. B.. The food in restaurants and, most, pubs in the UK is a lot better these days. Still crap unless you know where you are going, mind (Brake Brothers and microwaves dominate the pub food trade), but a lot better than it was in the late seventies. The roads are terrible (and getting worse), the prices are getting silly (£5.20 for a pint of Guinness they wanted the other day), and the climate - well that hasn't changed. I am sure your missus would notice the changes that have been made to Haywards Heath, a pseudo town if ever there was one, but aside from the new estates and 14 times as much traffic not much changed since the late 70's (tell her the Star is still going and the curry house across the road).
Still it could be worse. Instead of living 7 miles from the centre of Haywards Heath I could be living 7 miles from the centre of Atlanta.
Oddly enough, my wife had her formal interview and test for her US Citizenship this morning. She passed.
From home to the USCIS offices, (which are just inside I-285, which is to Atlanta what the M25 is to London - we live outside it), and back via a detour for a good lunch and a detour to get some passport photos taken - 124 miles.
Regarding the food etc in the UK - I was there in 2005. It hadn't improved much.
So long as the Yorkshire dales exist, I can get a cheese and picallili sandwich, a decent pint, visit my old school (and once in a while down your way to see my dad and nephew's school) and somewhere reasonable to lay my weary head, I'll survive the UK for a very limited time.
"... once in a while down your way to see my dad and nephew's school ..."
I am growing ever more senile. Are not your family linked in with St John's College, Hurstpierpoint? Or as it likes to refer to itself these days, "Hurst College" (amazingly despite this ridiculous dumbing down they are queueing up to get their children in there).
Anyway if you do come down this way and don't let me buy you at least a beer then you and your line shall be cursed even unto the seventh generation.
Comments
http://www.birmingham.gov.uk/elections/local/2014
Tory vote at 494 is much lower than expected and Labour much higher at 3,451.
"The Tories are on course to win next weeks key Newark by election and give UKIP a hammering..."
Is TN-D OGH?
Will people be saying it's all over for UKIP if they dont win this?
The reality on the ground around the country will be deciding if it's true.
LD 4,822
Con 1,236
Lab 659
UKIP 290
Green 84
BNP 42
Eng Dem 24
AIFE 23
http://www.parliament.gi/gibraltar-register-of-european-parliamentary-electors/euro-parl-elections-2014-results
http://order-order.com/2014/05/30/watch-balls-banned-from-bilderberg/
Bwin were 25-1 y'day, they went to market best 33-1 to presumably catch a bit of £ which looks to have worked and so now 18-1 albeit others have shorter odds and haven't budged throughout that shake?
Anyone would think the Conservatives supported repealing the corn laws, and the Tories were right of course to oppose the repeal as the newly rural unemployed flooded into industrial ghettos. Easy for the Liberal industrialists to dress up their self interest in cheap labour in high sounding ideals, a lot like immigration.
Sure, Con are clear favourites but they are available at 1.31 on Betfair - that doesn't suggest to me that Con can be confident of giving UKIP a hammering.
I suspect if Dave was offered any Con win - even just by a few votes - he would very gratefully take it.
UKIP just traded for relatively big money at 4.4 (£500).. of course this doesnt mean its necessarily good for them as someone has taken the bet and the price has barely moved
Could just as easy say someone has backed them at 2/7 not to win
Twitter
Lord Ashcroft @LordAshcroft 24s
Pls retweet that at 4pm on Monday not only will the Ashcroft National Poll be released but also a poll on the Newark by-election.
It'll be up in an hour or so.
Though I'm sure that's the first ever PB thread to have been written and published at a New Kids On The Block Gig.
Course most MP's are checking out Guido to see whether he's exposing them. Yet.
I only just saw that graph of LD MEPs per vote!! Jesus the grapes are sour!
The headline when UKIP won the Euros was that they did worse than expoected against the polling hahahahaha!
http://blogs.spectator.co.uk/coffeehouse/2014/05/does-tony-blair-want-to-be-president-of-the-european-commission/
Eagles, sometimes you are sad muppet.
The flip side of what your saying is that if UKIP win Newark they could expect 10+ seats at the GE thanks to the momentum
Basically, the ISP's were legally bound not to carry some websites. Whether it is .co.uk, .de or .com, if the law says this cannot be in the domain of a country, it can be enacted.
Would you accept if a child pornography site was banned in the UK but the .com version was available ?
She left her parents, an identical twin sister in Haywards Heath (which got me into trouble more than once when we were courting), an elder sister and lots of nephews and nieces, aunts and uncles, none of whom had ever seen North America either. I guess she liked me......
Moving was a nightmare - the truck drivers were on strike so we couldn't get our furniture moved, you couldn't buy petrol for the same reason, so we had to sell our cars and rely on rental cars as they always came with a full tank...it was many years before I even wanted to visit the UK again. Catching a flight was also problematic. Even today I have no real desire ever to go there again. I'd like to see my old friends, my old school etc, but it's not worth the aggro of the place - the roads are terrible, the food is awful, the climate worse, and the prices are a nightmare
On the good side - We're still here....
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/politics/david-cameron/10863371/Conservative-grassroots-tell-Cameron-he-must-spell-out-EU-reform-plan-to-defeat-Ukip.html
That said, I am disgusted that one of the actors has been allowed to be one of the referees. Sir Jeremy Heywood was Blair's principle private secretary at the crucial time. Yes, the bloke who was charged with looking into the Mitchell fiasco but but didn't bother to look at the video's. The man is clearly incompetent or devious and, as Blair's secretary at the time, should have had no role in the Chilcott Enquiry.
Whether that's right or wrong can be debated, but unfortunately if you want personal privacy, you should probably avoid the internet in general. That's just the way it is, French judges or not.
http://www1.politicalbetting.com/index.php/archives/2014/01/25/it-couldnt-happen-could-it-pm-farage/
Michael Crick @MichaelLCrick 1m
It's a long time since I've seen Tories so keen to win a by-election. Amazingly, Ukip don't seem that bothered; Lab + Lib Dems even more so
Personally I hope google tell them where to go and stick their censorship.
Still it could be worse. Instead of living 7 miles from the centre of Haywards Heath I could be living 7 miles from the centre of Atlanta.
More possible now than it was then...
Incidentally I've learned that Nigel Farage will be in Newark tomorrow, followed by Diane James on Sunday and Patrick O'Flynn on Monday.
From home to the USCIS offices, (which are just inside I-285, which is to Atlanta what the M25 is to London - we live outside it), and back via a detour for a good lunch and a detour to get some passport photos taken - 124 miles.
Regarding the food etc in the UK - I was there in 2005. It hadn't improved much.
So long as the Yorkshire dales exist, I can get a cheese and picallili sandwich, a decent pint, visit my old school (and once in a while down your way to see my dad and nephew's school) and somewhere reasonable to lay my weary head, I'll survive the UK for a very limited time.
"... once in a while down your way to see my dad and nephew's school ..."
I am growing ever more senile. Are not your family linked in with St John's College, Hurstpierpoint? Or as it likes to refer to itself these days, "Hurst College" (amazingly despite this ridiculous dumbing down they are queueing up to get their children in there).
Anyway if you do come down this way and don't let me buy you at least a beer then you and your line shall be cursed even unto the seventh generation.
P.S. Hope the dog is well.