I think Edmund has this right. The Commission is a frail and insignificant shadow of what it was in Delors day but this does not mean that the Member States will be content to let it become the plaything of the Parliament.
We already have much greater accountability of individual Commissioners to the Parliament and much of the day to day supervision of their work is done by the Parliament even if the Council of Ministers still control the agenda. If they accept the principle that the leader of the largest group in the Parliament gets to be head of the Commission the grip pf Parliament will be increased.
My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead. Whether this in fact makes any difference in the real world is entirely moot.
Hmm I'm seriously wondering if Betfair should just remove the Lib Dems from By-Election markets where they have no chance. I mean I can't lay the Bus pass Elvis party !
Just got back from lunch in Paris with an old friend. Very worried about the state of the UMP: his view is all the leading candidates are so awful that there is a real risk that Marine Le Pen might win a run off against any of them.
@SandyRentool Your proposal whilst marginally more sensible than the current sham still falls foul of the fact that European voters aren't a single political unit. Laminating EU institutions and personnel with a veneer of plebiscites simply cannot get round the fundamentally undemocratic nature of the beast. Voting is a necessary aspect of democratic institutions it is far from sufficient.
Just got back from lunch in Paris with an old friend. Very worried about the state of the UMP: his view is all the leading candidates are so awful that there is a real risk that Marine Le Pen might win a run off against any of them.
If they are that bad they'll have trouble getting into the run-off.
Is it too late to suggest a thread on the next BBC Trust Chairman? Possibly it is, as Seb Coe is installed as the hot 1/4 favourite with Paddy Power, surprisingly the only bookie to be offering this market. He is said to have the support of both David Cameron and especially and crucially George Osborne.
That said his appointment is being vigourously opposed by Peter Oborne in the Daily Telegraph :
@SandyRentool Your proposal whilst marginally more sensible than the current sham still falls foul of the fact that European voters aren't a single political unit. Laminating EU institutions and personnel with a veneer of plebiscites simply cannot get round the fundamentally undemocratic nature of the beast. Voting is a necessary aspect of democratic institutions it is far from sufficient.
An alternative to one person one vote is an electoral college system like that in the US. However, I would not favour such a system.
If they are that bad they'll have trouble getting into the run-off.
The competition is likely to be François Hollande.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
@peter_from_putney As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.
Nick, what is wrong with the system is that you have five candidates standing for the post of president, rather than prime minister, and yet you can only vote for them in a very indirect way via electing MEPs. For public engagement in the system, each voter across europe should have been issued with a ballot paper listing the five candidates and asking them to make their choice. Isn't that how most democracies elect a president? Then we wouldn't be in this 'smoke filled room' situation after the event, with non-candidates being proposed for the job.
The smoke-filled room thing isn't because of a problem in the naming, it's because the actual role of the voters was deliberately fudged in the Lisbon Treaty (since the member states couldn't agree), so now there's a little institutional bun-fight that has to play out to show what's going happen in practice. After a few cycles the precedents will firm up and it'll become a formality.
As far as indirectly elected presidents go quite a few countries do it. Technically that includes the US, although they've subsequently stuck something like a direct election to the back of the constitution a little bit of chewing gum at a time. Prime Minister does feel like a better name, but in the EU the word Minister is already taken for something different, so maybe it would just confuse people. (Mind you there are also getting on for half-a-dozen other presidents in the EU, so maybe they should have called him something completely different like Super-Commissioner or Grand Fromage.)
But Germany backs him. Let's see who genuinely has influence in the EU.
Cameron is probably quite anxious to be on the losing side, because none of the plausible candidates are likely to be popular with the British tabloids, so when they have a go at the winner he'll want it to look like somebody else was responsible for putting them there.
That said, this is more a Heads of State vs Parliament bun-fight than a UK vs Germany one. Where the Parliament got lucky this time was that the winning candidate happened to be the kind of person the Heads of State would have wanted in the job anyhow; He's EPP, like many of them, and he's a low-key fixer type who's good at smoothing over differences rather than somebody who will eclipse them and try to make them things they don't want to do.
What'll be at the back of their minds is that once they pick him this time, the precedent is set, and if the EPP loses next time they'll have a very hard time not picking the next winner, even if it's someone more charismatic and potentially troublesome. This will be even harder to resist if they've won a contested primary. This is probably what's behind going through the motions of affecting to look at other candidates, even though he's the kind of person they'd have wanted anyhow, and in many cases they've already endorsed him.
Good analysis. I think that because British media coverage of the contest was so crap, people here underestimate the extent to which many on the Continent got interested in the rival candidates and their debates - imagine if after the 2010 debates the hung Parliament had resulted in, say, Hague or Cable becoming PM instead of any of the three who people had been watching. Juncker's a well-known figure in most countries, whereas in Britain he's hardly mentioned or known, though no doubt he'll graduate to new Demon King figure if he gets the job.
Nick, what is wrong with the system is that you have five candidates standing for the post of president, rather than prime minister, and yet you can only vote for them in a very indirect way via electing MEPs. For public engagement in the system, each voter across europe should have been issued with a ballot paper listing the five candidates and asking them to make their choice. Isn't that how most democracies elect a president? Then we wouldn't be in this 'smoke filled room' situation after the event, with non-candidates being proposed for the job.
Quite right, a presidency needs to be decided with names on the ballot.
@JohnRentoul: 16 weeks to go & giant of psephology, John Curtice, edges towards calling the Scottish referendum for Better Together http://t.co/dU34jF5rk8
Just got back from lunch in Paris with an old friend. Very worried about the state of the UMP: his view is all the leading candidates are so awful that there is a real risk that Marine Le Pen might win a run off against any of them.
If they are that bad they'll have trouble getting into the run-off.
His view was that Hollande is so unpopular that there's just no way back for him.
I forget all the names but he said Sarko is loathed, Villepine (sp?) has never been elected or had a proper job, one of the other guys is way too junior & Fiton is just a faceless bureaucrat. None of them will inspire - while Le Pen is very charismatic and an extremely left wing populist (with the exception of the France for the French crap) who could combine a lot of protest votes + rural votes + anti-establishment + deep red.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
@SandyRentool Your proposal whilst marginally more sensible than the current sham still falls foul of the fact that European voters aren't a single political unit. Laminating EU institutions and personnel with a veneer of plebiscites simply cannot get round the fundamentally undemocratic nature of the beast. Voting is a necessary aspect of democratic institutions it is far from sufficient.
An alternative to one person one vote is an electoral college system like that in the US. However, I would not favour such a system.
The way they are going you essentially have an electoral college. I just find the whole plastering of plebiscites onto things to try to increase their legitimacy is ludicrous, every tinpot tyranny tries the same.
@Peter_From_Putney I've got a poke on him to become Mayor of London, but given the way London is looking the Conservative side of that contest is almost looking an irrelevancy anyway.
If Seb Coe is still interested in UK politics as opposed to International Sports politics I would much rather see him as the tory replacement for Boris than head of the BBC.
I think Cameron will be keen to appoint a woman to the BBC if he possibly can which makes Scardino a good bet if she wants it.
There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
They do seem to have an amazing blind spot when it comes to campaign finance legislation. They dont just exceed the limit - they seemt to vault miles beyond the limit and then try to commit all kinds of fraud to try to cover it up!
@peter_from_putney As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.
OK Jim ..... sorry I missed your earlier post on this.
I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw Oborne was suggesting Robert Winston - a dyed in the wool Labour supporter. Do we really want another socialist heading up what is already a hugely left-biased BBC.
@Peter_From_Putney I've got a poke on him to become Mayor of London, but given the way London is looking the Conservative side of that contest is almost looking an irrelevancy anyway.
Far from it. If Miliband becomes PM, he will soon become excruciatingly unpopular, taking Labour with him. A Conservative candidate may well then become firm favourite for the mayoralty.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Is it too late to suggest a thread on the next BBC Trust Chairman? Possibly it is, as Seb Coe is installed as the hot 1/4 favourite with Paddy Power, surprisingly the only bookie to be offering this market. He is said to have the support of both David Cameron and especially and crucially George Osborne.
That said his appointment is being vigourously opposed by Peter Oborne in the Daily Telegraph :
@JohnRentoul: 16 weeks to go & giant of psephology, John Curtice, edges towards calling the Scottish referendum for Better Together http://t.co/dU34jF5rk8
My son (10) was given the task of arguing for independence at his debating society yesterday. He has clearly been paying more attention than I give him credit for to the campaign because he and his pals just made up stuff in support of independence. As a matter of principle, however, he then voted against his own side leaving only his two team mates in favour.
My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead.
The rumour on the internets a while back was that Juncker really wanted a different job, so the move would be to put him up as EPP candidate, then have someone else like Katainen (who mysteriously resigned right after the nomination to make himself available for an unspecified international post) take the Commission President job. It would be hard for parliament to reject the proposal if the candidate they wanted had just declared himself otherwise engaged...
But as things stand Juncker doesn't seem to be ready to roll over, unless the whole thing has been very elaborately choreographed...
If they are that bad they'll have trouble getting into the run-off.
The competition is likely to be François Hollande.
So what price Le Pen in 2017? 12/1 too skinny?
Good value, I'd have thought.
The way things are going she might be well advised to get a portion of her support voting for Hollande in the first round... difficult to do in practice, of course.
@Peter_From_Putney I've got a poke on him to become Mayor of London, but given the way London is looking the Conservative side of that contest is almost looking an irrelevancy anyway.
Far from it. If Miliband becomes PM, he will soon become excruciatingly unpopular, taking Labour with him. A Conservative candidate may well then become firm favourite for the mayoralty.
On the flip side our Khan betslips look even better with a continuation of the coalition ?
@peter_from_putney As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.
OK Jim ..... sorry I missed your earlier post on this.
I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw Oborne was suggesting Robert Winston - a dyed in the wool Labour supporter. Do we really want another socialist heading up what is already a hugely left-biased BBC.
Oh I was less concerned about who he suggested as the insultingly dismissive attitude to the Culture Secretary as little more than a marionette with the strings going through the door of No. 11. The insinuation that Coe is thick was also a bit much. Both of them have actually done stuff whereas Oborne has only sat on the sidelines carping and launching invective.
Ed is crap, will never be Prime Minister and sleazy Labour are on the slide.
Can we talk about cricket?
We need an Osborne bar to compare just how crap Ed actually is.
Next few days, I've got a Chancellors rating thing coming up.
Osborne is the greatest Tory Chancellor since Nigel Lawson in 1987, but Osborne is not as popular as Gordon Brown in his pomp.
I simply don't get how the British public was fooled so badly in 1997 I wasn't, but I was too young to vote at the time.
Con spivvery and sleaze combined with the pleasure and glee over stomping people "if it's not hurting it's not working" killed a large chunk of the Con vote and they've never fully got it back really - almost did briefly around the time of Crewe but they've lost it to Ukip again now.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Wonder whether she might be drafted from the IMF to EU Commission President. I understand she gets on very well with Mrs Merkel, clearly also does with George Osborne (hence Dave) and would be an extremely attractive public Euro-face.
Only problem - and a possibly insurmountable one - is Hollande.
My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead.
The rumour on the internets a while back was that Juncker really wanted a different job, so the move would be to put him up as EPP candidate, then have someone else like Katainen (who mysteriously resigned right after the nomination to make himself available for an unspecified international post) take the Commission President job. It would be hard for parliament to reject the proposal if the candidate they wanted had just declared himself otherwise engaged...
But as things stand Juncker doesn't seem to be ready to roll over, unless the whole thing has been very elaborately choreographed...
Well Herman van Rompuy's job is available in November. I'm sure that will be another bunfight.
I can't see any way back for Hollande. Two years into his Presidency, his approval rating is 18%. That's about 15% worse than George W Bush at the end of his Presidency.
The man is just so pitifully lacking in competence, dignity, charisma, or any of the qualities that one might look for in a leader.
Maybe, just maybe, he might have made an effective local councillor, but I'd say that's his limit.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
I can't see any way back for Hollande. Two years into his Presidency, his approval rating is 18%. That's about 15% worse than George W Bush at the end of his Presidency.
The man is just so pitifully lacking in competence, dignity, charisma, or any of the qualities that one might look for in a leader.
Maybe, just maybe, he might have made an effective local councillor, but I'd say that's his limit.
While I wouldnt go as far as that he does seem to be having a tough time of it. So tough that perhaps he shouldnt automatically be seen as the Socialist Party candidate next time out? The PM is a lot more popular.
My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead.
The rumour on the internets a while back was that Juncker really wanted a different job, so the move would be to put him up as EPP candidate, then have someone else like Katainen (who mysteriously resigned right after the nomination to make himself available for an unspecified international post) take the Commission President job. It would be hard for parliament to reject the proposal if the candidate they wanted had just declared himself otherwise engaged...
But as things stand Juncker doesn't seem to be ready to roll over, unless the whole thing has been very elaborately choreographed...
Well Herman van Rompuy's job is available in November. I'm sure that will be another bunfight.
Yup, IIRC that's the one Juncker was alleged to have his eye on.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Wonder whether she might be drafted from the IMF to EU Commission President. I understand she gets on very well with Mrs Merkel, clearly also does with George Osborne (hence Dave) and would be an extremely attractive public Euro-face.
Only problem - and a possibly insurmountable one - is Hollande.
Hmm possible. If she wants to be President of France she will refuse it.
I can't see any way back for Hollande. Two years into his Presidency, his approval rating is 18%. That's about 15% worse than George W Bush at the end of his Presidency.
The man is just so pitifully lacking in competence, dignity, charisma, or any of the qualities that one might look for in a leader.
Maybe, just maybe, he might have made an effective local councillor, but I'd say that's his limit.
He was elected on a blatantly fraudulent prospectus, so the disaster of the French economy and jobs market, and his ensuing unpopularity, was completely predictable. It is for exactly the same reason that I am so sure that Miliband will rapidly become disastrously unpopular, if he becomes PM.
Is it too late to suggest a thread on the next BBC Trust Chairman? Possibly it is, as Seb Coe is installed as the hot 1/4 favourite with Paddy Power, surprisingly the only bookie to be offering this market. He is said to have the support of both David Cameron and especially and crucially George Osborne.
That said his appointment is being vigourously opposed by Peter Oborne in the Daily Telegraph :
The one plus to Junker becoming President of the Commission is that it would rule out the prospect, however slim, of Enda Kenny getting the job. I mean there's being promoted above your abilities and then there's Enda in a role like that.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...
My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead.
The rumour on the internets a while back was that Juncker really wanted a different job, so the move would be to put him up as EPP candidate, then have someone else like Katainen (who mysteriously resigned right after the nomination to make himself available for an unspecified international post) take the Commission President job. It would be hard for parliament to reject the proposal if the candidate they wanted had just declared himself otherwise engaged...
But as things stand Juncker doesn't seem to be ready to roll over, unless the whole thing has been very elaborately choreographed...
Well Herman van Rompuy's job is available in November. I'm sure that will be another bunfight.
Yup, IIRC that's the one Juncker was alleged to have his eye on.
Oh the labyrinthine structures of the EU almost all of it surplus to requirements and in opposition to sanity.
I can't see any way back for Hollande. Two years into his Presidency, his approval rating is 18%. That's about 15% worse than George W Bush at the end of his Presidency.
The man is just so pitifully lacking in competence, dignity, charisma, or any of the qualities that one might look for in a leader.
Maybe, just maybe, he might have made an effective local councillor, but I'd say that's his limit.
He was elected on a blatantly fraudulent prospectus, so the disaster of the French economy and jobs market, and his ensuing unpopularity, was completely predictable. It is for exactly the same reason that I am so sure that Miliband will rapidly become disastrously unpopular, if he becomes PM.
Milliband is Churchillian by comparison to Hollande.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Wonder whether she might be drafted from the IMF to EU Commission President. I understand she gets on very well with Mrs Merkel, clearly also does with George Osborne (hence Dave) and would be an extremely attractive public Euro-face.
Only problem - and a possibly insurmountable one - is Hollande.
Plus the fact that President of the Commission is nothing like the job it was. It would be a demotion from her current post. I think President of France will be a lot more tempting.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...
I like the idea but it may not play well with the British electorate.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Wonder whether she might be drafted from the IMF to EU Commission President. I understand she gets on very well with Mrs Merkel, clearly also does with George Osborne (hence Dave) and would be an extremely attractive public Euro-face.
Only problem - and a possibly insurmountable one - is Hollande.
Plus the fact that President of the Commission is nothing like the job it was. It would be a demotion from her current post. I think President of France will be a lot more tempting.
I guess this is the part of the problem trying to recruit somebody to big-foot Juncker. It's worth a lot more to him than it is to anyone else, because it's only an influential job if you got elected to it.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...
I like the idea but it may not play well with the British electorate.
Cameron isn't going to appoint a non-Brit to the British slot. He isn't going to send the europhile Clegg, it will be a Eurosceptic Conservative that's heading off there. I actually like the idea of sending Martin Callanan as it saves a by-election but who knows.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...
I like the idea but it may not play well with the British electorate.
And I don't see why Lagarde would want it - surely it's a demotion relative to her current position?
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Wonder whether she might be drafted from the IMF to EU Commission President. I understand she gets on very well with Mrs Merkel, clearly also does with George Osborne (hence Dave) and would be an extremely attractive public Euro-face.
Only problem - and a possibly insurmountable one - is Hollande.
Plus the fact that President of the Commission is nothing like the job it was. It would be a demotion from her current post. I think President of France will be a lot more tempting.
I guess this is the part of the problem trying to recruit somebody to big-foot Juncker. It's worth a lot more to him than it is to anyone else, because it's only an influential job if you got elected to it.
Well Commission President is clearly a bigger job than his previous one which after all wasn't much more than leader of a very rich county council.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...
I like the idea but it may not play well with the British electorate.
Cameron isn't going to appoint a non-Brit to the British slot. He isn't going to send the europhile Clegg, it will be a Eurosceptic Conservative that's heading off there. I actually like the idea of sending Martin Callanan as it saves a by-election but who knows.
When is the appointment (and subsequent by-election if applicable) - it feels like we've been talking about it for a while...
Well Herman van Rompuy's job is available in November. I'm sure that will be another bunfight.
Who is he? That's what I want to know!
He's the president of the European Council, which is the grouping of all the heads of government of the member states. Before he got the job there was an idea around that they'd pick somebody very heavyweight (Tony Blair's name was mentioned at the time...) who would be the effective President of Europe, but as usual the heads of government decided they didn't want to be out-shone or pushed around and went for another consensus-builder. (See also Catherine Ashton.)
Long-term this may turn out to have been a mistake, because if the parliament's current maneuver works out, a few cycles down the road they'll end up with a heavyweight in the Commission job instead, and that person's selection will be in the hands of the voters instead of their own.
Nick, what is wrong with the system is that you have five candidates standing for the post of president, rather than prime minister, and yet you can only vote for them in a very indirect way via electing MEPs. For public engagement in the system, each voter across europe should have been issued with a ballot paper listing the five candidates and asking them to make their choice. Isn't that how most democracies elect a president? Then we wouldn't be in this 'smoke filled room' situation after the event, with non-candidates being proposed for the job.
Yes, I agree, though in our own country, which most observers see as semi-presidential in reality, we choose our PM by precisely the same method - the main candidates debate each other, then we vote for people who we know will vote for them. Because the British media didn't cover the campaign between the candidates, it seems more smoke-filled than it really is.
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...
The best suggestion I have read on pbc this year!
Do it, Dave!
(And ennoble JohnO as Lord JohnO of Bournemouth while you are at it.)
@Lennon If I understand the rules then the commissioners can't be nominated until the Commission President, Council President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security are in situ. That is because the nations whose representatives get those jobs don't get a Commissioner. It really depends how long it takes to shaft Juncker or accept he can't be shafted then agree on a replacement for the largely invisible Rompuy and the egregious non-entity that is Baronness Ashton. Could be a while.
@peter_from_putney As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.
OK Jim ..... sorry I missed your earlier post on this.
I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw Oborne was suggesting Robert Winston - a dyed in the wool Labour supporter. Do we really want another socialist heading up what is already a hugely left-biased BBC.
Given the amount of power the BBC has to influence public opinion i think the governors should be elected to enforce neutrality.
@peter_from_putney As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.
OK Jim ..... sorry I missed your earlier post on this.
I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw Oborne was suggesting Robert Winston - a dyed in the wool Labour supporter. Do we really want another socialist heading up what is already a hugely left-biased BBC.
Given the amount of power the BBC has to influence public opinion i think the governors should be elected to enforce neutrality.
and they will then campaign on party political grounds no?
I'm not so sure - if the UMP candidate isnt capable of beating someone as disliked by so many voters as Le Pen would he (I can only see men being touted so far) be able to beat a centrist along the lines of Bayrou (not necessarily him but you get the idea - someone will fill the vacuum)?
Realistically it is too early to speculate. There's a chance that the centre-right will get their act together, although admittedly they seem in serious disarray at the moment.
I always thought Madame Lagarde was considered a potential candidate having taken the sensible decision to absent herself from domestic politics to appear above the fray.
Hollande would have to appoint her to the Commission and doesnt appear to be inclined to do so. She would surely be a shoo-in if she was a runner. Whether Europe lost the IMF chief role now or in 5 or 10 years hardly matters that much.
Cameron has a Commission slot to fill, too. He could give Lagarde the British slot - I doubt there's anything in the EU rules saying you have to discriminate by nationality. Better than pissing the appointment away clearing Lansley or whoever out of the cabinet, and it would really annoy the French...
The best suggestion I have read on pbc this year!
Do it, Dave!
(And ennoble JohnO as Lord JohnO of Bournemouth while you are at it.)
Neil
You can be John's official biographer.
Given his rise to fame and glory against all attempts by the PB Tories to lead him astray, may I suggest the title "Story of O".
Paterson is losing credibility in his constituency fast. Locals are highly concerned about fracking, and he's not attending any of their public meetings, preferring to hide away in his office. The anger is brewing. It could well boil over, and he won't get any support come election time.
Leaflets are out there demanding he be removed. People are saying,'where's our MP?'. His problem is that as the primary proponent of fracking the UK, he can hardly turn up at meetings where 100% of attendees are determined to stop the drilling in their constituencies. He's painted himself into a corner. If UKIP go anti-fracking, he'd be in trouble. A local independent is being planned to unseat him otherwise. Watch this space.
I made these (just using blank faceplates, not combined with plugs) two years ago when I did up the rental place. In a 'miserable git' sort of way I rather hope these sink without trace - I'll kick myself if they take off.
@peter_from_putney As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.
OK Jim ..... sorry I missed your earlier post on this.
I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw Oborne was suggesting Robert Winston - a dyed in the wool Labour supporter. Do we really want another socialist heading up what is already a hugely left-biased BBC.
Given the amount of power the BBC has to influence public opinion i think the governors should be elected to enforce neutrality.
and they will then campaign on party political grounds no?
Paterson is losing credibility in his constituency fast. Locals are highly concerned about fracking, and he's not attending any of their public meetings, preferring to hide away in his office. The anger is brewing. It could well boil over, and he won't get any support come election time.
Leaflets are out there demanding he be removed. People are saying,'where's our MP?'. His problem is that as the primary proponent of fracking the UK, he can hardly turn up at meetings where 100% of attendees are determined to stop the drilling in their constituencies. He's painted himself into a corner. If UKIP go anti-fracking, he'd be in trouble. A local independent is being planned to unseat him otherwise. Watch this space.
If the locals are against fracking they must be bonkers.
I made these (just using blank faceplates, not combined with plugs) two years ago when I did up the rental place. In a 'miserable git' sort of way I rather hope these sink without trace - I'll kick myself if they take off.
My understanding is that the country which provides the president of the european council does not lose its commissioner. Both the president of the commission and the high representative are commissioners themselves.
I made these (just using blank faceplates, not combined with plugs) two years ago when I did up the rental place. In a 'miserable git' sort of way I rather hope these sink without trace - I'll kick myself if they take off.
Yes, those look useful and practical. And thanks for reassuring me, in a way, that I hadn't accidentally invented and disregarded the invention of the century
bwin's Newark odds have shifted sharply - Labour in from 34-1 to 19-1, UKIP from 4 to 3.5, Cons 1.15 to 1.3. Meanwhile on the ground I gather the Labour campaign has stepped up a gear, though not to Tory levels.
Comments
We already have much greater accountability of individual Commissioners to the Parliament and much of the day to day supervision of their work is done by the Parliament even if the Council of Ministers still control the agenda. If they accept the principle that the leader of the largest group in the Parliament gets to be head of the Commission the grip pf Parliament will be increased.
My guess is that the heads of state won't accept that and that a compromise candidate from the same grouping which does not set the same level of precedent will be selected instead. Whether this in fact makes any difference in the real world is entirely moot.
Just got back from lunch in Paris with an old friend. Very worried about the state of the UMP: his view is all the leading candidates are so awful that there is a real risk that Marine Le Pen might win a run off against any of them.
Your proposal whilst marginally more sensible than the current sham still falls foul of the fact that European voters aren't a single political unit. Laminating EU institutions and personnel with a veneer of plebiscites simply cannot get round the fundamentally undemocratic nature of the beast. Voting is a necessary aspect of democratic institutions it is far from sufficient.
Is it too late to suggest a thread on the next BBC Trust Chairman?
Possibly it is, as Seb Coe is installed as the hot 1/4 favourite with Paddy Power, surprisingly the only bookie to be offering this market. He is said to have the support of both David Cameron and especially and crucially George Osborne.
That said his appointment is being vigourously opposed by Peter Oborne in the Daily Telegraph :
http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/peteroborne/100274007/seb-coe-is-a-very-nice-man-but-he-would-be-a-disastrous-chairman-of-the-bbc-trust/
FWIW my money's on Marjorie Scardino at 14/1 where those nice people at PP have allowed me to stake the princely sum of £1.21
As I pointed out before that article makes me want Lord Coe appointed just to spite Oborne. You can point out that you think someone is not right or is under qualified without the nasty sneering tone the odious Oborne adopts. Loathsome irritating man.
As far as indirectly elected presidents go quite a few countries do it. Technically that includes the US, although they've subsequently stuck something like a direct election to the back of the constitution a little bit of chewing gum at a time. Prime Minister does feel like a better name, but in the EU the word Minister is already taken for something different, so maybe it would just confuse people. (Mind you there are also getting on for half-a-dozen other presidents in the EU, so maybe they should have called him something completely different like Super-Commissioner or Grand Fromage.)
Who would the choices be:
Juncker, Schulz, Verhofstadt, Keller, Tsipras ?
I forget all the names but he said Sarko is loathed, Villepine (sp?) has never been elected or had a proper job, one of the other guys is way too junior & Fiton is just a faceless bureaucrat. None of them will inspire - while Le Pen is very charismatic and an extremely left wing populist (with the exception of the France for the French crap) who could combine a lot of protest votes + rural votes + anti-establishment + deep red.
I think Cameron will be keen to appoint a woman to the BBC if he possibly can which makes Scardino a good bet if she wants it.
I couldn't believe what I was reading when I saw Oborne was suggesting Robert Winston - a dyed in the wool Labour supporter. Do we really want another socialist heading up what is already a hugely left-biased BBC.
But as things stand Juncker doesn't seem to be ready to roll over, unless the whole thing has been very elaborately choreographed...
Guess he really is the Heir To Blair!
Yep. A good time to bet on the mayoralty will be 8th May 2015.
Only problem - and a possibly insurmountable one - is Hollande.
The man is just so pitifully lacking in competence, dignity, charisma, or any of the qualities that one might look for in a leader.
Maybe, just maybe, he might have made an effective local councillor, but I'd say that's his limit.
Long-term this may turn out to have been a mistake, because if the parliament's current maneuver works out, a few cycles down the road they'll end up with a heavyweight in the Commission job instead, and that person's selection will be in the hands of the voters instead of their own.
Do it, Dave!
(And ennoble JohnO as Lord JohnO of Bournemouth while you are at it.)
If I understand the rules then the commissioners can't be nominated until the Commission President, Council President and High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security are in situ. That is because the nations whose representatives get those jobs don't get a Commissioner. It really depends how long it takes to shaft Juncker or accept he can't be shafted then agree on a replacement for the largely invisible Rompuy and the egregious non-entity that is Baronness Ashton. Could be a while.
1/20 Nailed on hold.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=WsGXA5J7ssw
How far ahead were UKIP in his area at the Euros ?
It should have read "far right idiots".
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-27643408
remember these were the differentials from the final polls for Eastleigh...
UKIP +6.8%
Con -3.7%
Lab -2.0%
LD 0.0%
Just for fun (well, sort of) if we apply these to the Newark poll we have:-
UKIP 34.8%
Con 32.3%
Lab 25.0%
LD 5.0%
A UKIP win by 900 votes (on a 50% turnout)
Of course, DYOR...
The tail back you see in the photo is probably the longest recorded in history.
There is certainly no need for a yellow box. You just wait for the lights at the bottom of Kensington Church Street to change and sneak in.
Must be a UKIP proposal!
Just taken the £10 of 4.5 on Betfair.
You can be John's official biographer.
Given his rise to fame and glory against all attempts by the PB Tories to lead him astray, may I suggest the title "Story of O".
Leaflets are out there demanding he be removed. People are saying,'where's our MP?'. His problem is that as the primary proponent of fracking the UK, he can hardly turn up at meetings where 100% of attendees are determined to stop the drilling in their constituencies. He's painted himself into a corner. If UKIP go anti-fracking, he'd be in trouble. A local independent is being planned to unseat him otherwise. Watch this space.
I made these (just using blank faceplates, not combined with plugs) two years ago when I did up the rental place. In a 'miserable git' sort of way I rather hope these sink without trace - I'll kick myself if they take off.
http://order-order.com/2014/05/30/survey-says/
PB is mid-table.
http://www.staples.co.uk/multisocket-with-usb-dock/cbs/422996.html
The Met Office said an average March-May temperature of 8.97C (48.15F) would be beaten only by 2007 and 2011 in the records, which date back to 1910."
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-27635564