He has closed down Llandudno and yet allows English visitors to pass through the 4 border counties and holiday in Gwynedd
I know nothing of Welsh politics, but Drakeford gets slagged off so often here that I was surprised to see him as one of only three politicians with positive ratings (Sturgeon was another, so perhaps it's a reaction to perceived problems in UK governance?).
This board leans quite a lot more to the right than the electorate.
This board is full of high earners, with a high iq, an interest in and knowledge of stats and political theory. It's a great place to hang out but a slice of society it ain't.
Which is something worth remembering when people give betting tips. The fastest horse wins, not the smartest.
OK, my stab at R based on today's case by report date figures = about 1.26 (or slightly higher).
Calculation note: based on change in 7 day rolling average compared to 7 days ago. The 16k additional cases have been spread evenly over the 8 days prior to report, so for today 8k been added to last week & 8k subtracted from this week. (I calculated at 1.27 yesterday, and that compared with a last available sample date value of 1.29 with the 16k cases added in. Note that, before the correction, even using sample date last week wouldn't have saved you from estimating R low).
Given hospitalisations are running at about 10-15% of peak, that R rate would now put us around one month away, nationally, of the peak daily hospitalisation levels seen in late March.
Care to suggest your confidence interval?
We know that covid infections can't be exponential, although at low levels that is certainly the case. I've yet to see anyone who has bothered to fit the known constraints to their model in this.
It's a backwards facing calculation on the case figures, so strictly the only confidence interval I can quote is on my back of the envelope to turn reported date into 'should have been reported' date. If we say it might be 2k higher this week and 2k lower last week, then that would put R up by 0.05. Of course there is plenty to discuss on how that relates to the real transmission from over person to another - generation time, etc etc, but over time this is not bad.
On the forward estimate of how long the exponential can continue - we got to the peak in March and to now with only around 7-8% of the population infected, so there is certainly the fuel to reach that peak again without bending the exponential down that much. It is a longer slower slope, with more area underneath and more younger cases so we could get to 25% of the population infected by autumn/winter peak and there would still have fuel to continue the rise - of course you would assume that much more serious restrictions would kick in by that time.
If nothing changes public health wise, the exponent would bend down because an infected person would, by peak, be meeting 75% infectible people rather than 92%, that alone simplistically would curve things down to around 1.1 by peak. So, that could flatten the peak out to 7-8 weeks time. But like a fire, it goes a series of mini flare ups: student body all infected, spark elsewhere, Manchester 30% infected, oh look East Anglia is still tinder dry and as the old flames die, it is the new flare up that increasingly determine how fast the fire is spreading.
Also, if cold outdoor temperature and staying indoors is a factor in R, that may counterbalance any effect from herd immunity increasing.
If this is even vaguely correct, then my forecasts for Arizona and Florida will (of course) be completely wrong.
For such a weak candidate, Biden also ironically is turning into the platonic ideal for what the Democrats want in presidential contests.
He cuts into the GOP's lead among white voters while bringing out other groups in droves. We're four weeks out, yes, and he sure isn't doing that by himself, but still.
Sherrod Brown would have been the deluxe version of Biden (he says looking at his book longingly)
Am I alone in being quite unimpressed by Rishi Sunak?
He's the John Major de nos jours and I can quite see him as the alternative to Boris Johnson once the latter steps down/is forced out (delete as appropriate).
He's likeable but I've seen bits of MDF in B&Q with more charisma and personality. Fair enough, we can't all be flamboyant peddlers of pie-in-the-sky optimism like the Prime Minister and after years of Boris's bluff and bluster, a more managerialist approach might not go amiss.
Party Conference speeches fall into two categories - those which say things the audience wants to hear and those which don't. The latter include Theresa May's "nasty party" speech and Kinnock's bravura takedown of Militant. When you have a majority of 80 just after an election, you have an opportunity to explore the unpalatable and not be afraid to say some unpleasant things to your audience (both inside and outside the hall).
Sunak, of course, ducked all this and decided to witter on about "balancing the books". Now, this may please the activists (even those who advocate continued borrowing) but it's a platitude which doesn't just require suspending credibility as much as dangling it 10,000 feet above the Grand Canyon on a very thin and fraying rope.
Laura K opined Sunak had offered no mechanism as to HOW said books were to be balanced. The Lafferites will demand tax cuts and obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. The NHS is sacrosanct as are other public services including, one imagines, the Police and armed forces so it's back to welfare (goodbye triple lock) but then we also have the "plan" to reform adult social care which Johnson has been on the brink of publishing for months .
Sunak could have been more honest but that would have involved him taking a modicum of political risk. Talking about tax rises may not go down well with the Conservative faithful but it's an honest conversation to have with an electorate that may now be wondering what the final bill for Covid-19 is going to be and how it will be paid (both by them and by future generations).
He seems to be very popular with lefties, maybe because they think he's the most left-wing Tory currently in an important position in the government. I don't know whether that's true.
I don't particularly like or rate him - except relative to some of the surrounding dross - but I sense he is and might remain popular with voters. He already has the "Rishi" first name branding taking off. That worries me. I hope he doesn't become a problem.
Has anyone else found that men are more aggressive than usual whilst out and about?
I've been out twice since Friday and have found on both occasions total strangers (both men) be inexplicably rude to me. They both looked intrinsically angry.
Cabin fever from the Rona?
Are you sure you didn't provoke them with a look or a comment?
Hmm. Trouble is anything can be a provocation.
In one instance (Sunday) my daughter tried to offer a man's dog grass to eat whilst walking in the woods (she's 20 months, and she does that with sheep and donkeys near our house). I said, "Dog's don't eat grass, darling!" and gave him a friendly look. He said, "dogs do eat grass actually". I then tried to make a joke out of it, "Ha! Well, put it this way: no dog has accepted her offer yet!" and then he walked off saying, "you should listen more to your daughter."
In the other instance, this evening, a cyclist was convinced I hadn't seen him at a junction and was about to pull out (I had seen him and stopped) he then shouted at me and started shaking his head and pointing to it. When I finally pulled out, and overtook him, he suggested I pleasure myself rapidly.
Am I alone in being quite unimpressed by Rishi Sunak?
He's the John Major de nos jours and I can quite see him as the alternative to Boris Johnson once the latter steps down/is forced out (delete as appropriate).
He's likeable but I've seen bits of MDF in B&Q with more charisma and personality. Fair enough, we can't all be flamboyant peddlers of pie-in-the-sky optimism like the Prime Minister and after years of Boris's bluff and bluster, a more managerialist approach might not go amiss.
Party Conference speeches fall into two categories - those which say things the audience wants to hear and those which don't. The latter include Theresa May's "nasty party" speech and Kinnock's bravura takedown of Militant. When you have a majority of 80 just after an election, you have an opportunity to explore the unpalatable and not be afraid to say some unpleasant things to your audience (both inside and outside the hall).
Sunak, of course, ducked all this and decided to witter on about "balancing the books". Now, this may please the activists (even those who advocate continued borrowing) but it's a platitude which doesn't just require suspending credibility as much as dangling it 10,000 feet above the Grand Canyon on a very thin and fraying rope.
Laura K opined Sunak had offered no mechanism as to HOW said books were to be balanced. The Lafferites will demand tax cuts and obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. The NHS is sacrosanct as are other public services including, one imagines, the Police and armed forces so it's back to welfare (goodbye triple lock) but then we also have the "plan" to reform adult social care which Johnson has been on the brink of publishing for months .
Sunak could have been more honest but that would have involved him taking a modicum of political risk. Talking about tax rises may not go down well with the Conservative faithful but it's an honest conversation to have with an electorate that may now be wondering what the final bill for Covid-19 is going to be and how it will be paid (both by them and by future generations).
I agree with you about Sunak; far too early, and not enough substance shown yet, to pick him out as a future PM.
You repeat something I read on here every day, and often many times a day. Namely: obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. This statement seems to be accepted as fact by nearly everybody here.
Well, I'm in favour of paying more income tax personally: for the last 30 years, I think I've been under-taxed. Paying an extra £x per month for improved public services, and to reduce economic and social inequality, strikes me as good value for money. I'm retired now, and would be happy to pay more of my modest pension in tax. When I was working, on a good salary, I could have paid much more tax and still had a good lifestyle.
I know I'm not alone. Many/most people I know would be happy to be taxed more if that led to better public services.
Am I alone in being quite unimpressed by Rishi Sunak?
He's the John Major de nos jours and I can quite see him as the alternative to Boris Johnson once the latter steps down/is forced out (delete as appropriate).
He's likeable but I've seen bits of MDF in B&Q with more charisma and personality. Fair enough, we can't all be flamboyant peddlers of pie-in-the-sky optimism like the Prime Minister and after years of Boris's bluff and bluster, a more managerialist approach might not go amiss.
Party Conference speeches fall into two categories - those which say things the audience wants to hear and those which don't. The latter include Theresa May's "nasty party" speech and Kinnock's bravura takedown of Militant. When you have a majority of 80 just after an election, you have an opportunity to explore the unpalatable and not be afraid to say some unpleasant things to your audience (both inside and outside the hall).
Sunak, of course, ducked all this and decided to witter on about "balancing the books". Now, this may please the activists (even those who advocate continued borrowing) but it's a platitude which doesn't just require suspending credibility as much as dangling it 10,000 feet above the Grand Canyon on a very thin and fraying rope.
Laura K opined Sunak had offered no mechanism as to HOW said books were to be balanced. The Lafferites will demand tax cuts and obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. The NHS is sacrosanct as are other public services including, one imagines, the Police and armed forces so it's back to welfare (goodbye triple lock) but then we also have the "plan" to reform adult social care which Johnson has been on the brink of publishing for months .
Sunak could have been more honest but that would have involved him taking a modicum of political risk. Talking about tax rises may not go down well with the Conservative faithful but it's an honest conversation to have with an electorate that may now be wondering what the final bill for Covid-19 is going to be and how it will be paid (both by them and by future generations).
Sunak has about 18 months to become PM before the reality of the crisis means he has to take tough measures that impinge on his popularity.
Has anyone else found that men are more aggressive than usual whilst out and about?
I've been out twice since Friday and have found on both occasions total strangers (both men) be inexplicably rude to me. They both looked intrinsically angry.
Cabin fever from the Rona?
Are you sure you didn't provoke them with a look or a comment?
Hmm. Trouble is anything can be a provocation.
In one instance (Sunday) my daughter tried to offer a man's dog grass to eat whilst walking in the woods (she's 20 months, and she does that with sheep and donkeys near our house). I said, "Dog's don't eat grass, darling!" and gave him a friendly look. He said, "dogs do eat grass actually". I then tried to make a joke out of it, "Ha! Well, put it this way: no dog has accepted her offer yet!" and then he walked off saying, "you should listen more to your daughter."
In the other instance, this evening, a cyclist was convinced I hadn't seen him at a junction and was about to pull out (I had seen him and stopped) he then shouted at me and started shaking his head and pointing to it. When I finally pulled out, and overtook him, he suggested I pleasure myself rapidly.
Shave your head.
Get your daughter to draw some lightning bolt tattoos on your head with a marker pen.
Do so more in blue ink on your hands - the worse the better. LOVE and HATE on the knuckles is always good.
Instead of carrying your water in bottle, empty, wash out and fill with water a large tin of the cheaper kind of export lager.
You will notice a marked improvement in the social skill of others......
Am I alone in being quite unimpressed by Rishi Sunak?
He's the John Major de nos jours and I can quite see him as the alternative to Boris Johnson once the latter steps down/is forced out (delete as appropriate).
He's likeable but I've seen bits of MDF in B&Q with more charisma and personality. Fair enough, we can't all be flamboyant peddlers of pie-in-the-sky optimism like the Prime Minister and after years of Boris's bluff and bluster, a more managerialist approach might not go amiss.
Party Conference speeches fall into two categories - those which say things the audience wants to hear and those which don't. The latter include Theresa May's "nasty party" speech and Kinnock's bravura takedown of Militant. When you have a majority of 80 just after an election, you have an opportunity to explore the unpalatable and not be afraid to say some unpleasant things to your audience (both inside and outside the hall).
Sunak, of course, ducked all this and decided to witter on about "balancing the books". Now, this may please the activists (even those who advocate continued borrowing) but it's a platitude which doesn't just require suspending credibility as much as dangling it 10,000 feet above the Grand Canyon on a very thin and fraying rope.
Laura K opined Sunak had offered no mechanism as to HOW said books were to be balanced. The Lafferites will demand tax cuts and obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. The NHS is sacrosanct as are other public services including, one imagines, the Police and armed forces so it's back to welfare (goodbye triple lock) but then we also have the "plan" to reform adult social care which Johnson has been on the brink of publishing for months .
Sunak could have been more honest but that would have involved him taking a modicum of political risk. Talking about tax rises may not go down well with the Conservative faithful but it's an honest conversation to have with an electorate that may now be wondering what the final bill for Covid-19 is going to be and how it will be paid (both by them and by future generations).
People got on the Rishi train based on very little in the first place. He comes across well, and that's about it. He might be fantasitc, but it's fair enough to reserve judgement.
Has anyone else found that men are more aggressive than usual whilst out and about?
I've been out twice since Friday and have found on both occasions total strangers (both men) be inexplicably rude to me. They both looked intrinsically angry.
Cabin fever from the Rona?
Are you sure you didn't provoke them with a look or a comment?
Hmm. Trouble is anything can be a provocation.
In one instance (Sunday) my daughter tried to offer a man's dog grass to eat whilst walking in the woods (she's 20 months, and she does that with sheep and donkeys near our house). I said, "Dog's don't eat grass, darling!" and gave him a friendly look. He said, "dogs do eat grass actually". I then tried to make a joke out of it, "Ha! Well, put it this way: no dog has accepted her offer yet!" and then he walked off saying, "you should listen more to your daughter."
In the other instance, this evening, a cyclist was convinced I hadn't seen him at a junction and was about to pull out (I had seen him and stopped) he then shouted at me and started shaking his head and pointing to it. When I finally pulled out, and overtook him, he suggested I pleasure myself rapidly.
Shave your head.
Get your daughter to draw some lightning bolt tattoos on your head with a marker pen.
Do so more in blue ink on your hands - the worse the better. LOVE and HATE on the knuckles is always good.
Instead of carrying your water in bottle, empty, wash out and fill with water a large tin of the cheaper kind of export lager.
You will notice a marked improvement in the social skill of others......
Yeah. I dress like a bit like Alan Partridge/preppy /MIC (depending on how kind you're being) so I'm not sure I look that scary.
End of the day I'm a Shire Tory. Best I could do would be to set the dogs on him.. if I had any.
He has closed down Llandudno and yet allows English visitors to pass through the 4 border counties and holiday in Gwynedd
I know nothing of Welsh politics, but Drakeford gets slagged off so often here that I was surprised to see him as one of only three politicians with positive ratings (Sturgeon was another, so perhaps it's a reaction to perceived problems in UK governance?).
This board leans quite a lot more to the right than the electorate.
I think MexicanPete is a Labour Party supporter in Wales and he has been very critical of Drakeford. I think ValleyBoy is a Labour Party supporter in Wales and he has expressed similar views.
I don't know where you are located, but if you are not actually in Wales, I expect you know feck all about Welsh politics.
Although Labour leaning under Starmer, and generally of the faith under Blair, I am less enthusiastic than I once was. It is nonetheless fair to say my historical hostility towards the Conservative Party has gone into overdrive since they made the monumentally ridiculous schoolboy error of electing a charlatan like Johnson as their leader and hence Prime Minister. I am also in the fortunate position in the Vale of Glamorgan to have Alun Cairns as my MP, I won't be tempted to vote Tory. After his outrageous behaviour over the Ross England affair I am comfortable, despite his lackies' doing my family a great service five years ago, in disliking his brand of sycophancy.
Drakeford being of the Corbnynista faction of the Labour Party is not, as you point out, my favourite politician. The WAG front bench with the exception of the excellent Kirsty Williams are grade A idiots. That said Drakeford's Covid performance has been surprising less bad than anticipated (not the highest hurdle to overcome, granted) although the wheels look like they might be falling off at this moment in time. Drakeford's performance has been ten times better than Johnson's, however as I am rating Johnson currently in fractions, Drakeford probably struggles to make a 5 out of 10.
He has closed down Llandudno and yet allows English visitors to pass through the 4 border counties and holiday in Gwynedd
I know nothing of Welsh politics, but Drakeford gets slagged off so often here that I was surprised to see him as one of only three politicians with positive ratings (Sturgeon was another, so perhaps it's a reaction to perceived problems in UK governance?).
This board leans quite a lot more to the right than the electorate.
This board is full of high earners, with a high iq, an interest in and knowledge of stats and political theory. .
You're just making me feel like the odd one out with that list.
Has anyone else found that men are more aggressive than usual whilst out and about?
I've been out twice since Friday and have found on both occasions total strangers (both men) be inexplicably rude to me. They both looked intrinsically angry.
Cabin fever from the Rona?
Are you sure you didn't provoke them with a look or a comment?
Hmm. Trouble is anything can be a provocation.
In one instance (Sunday) my daughter tried to offer a man's dog grass to eat whilst walking in the woods (she's 20 months, and she does that with sheep and donkeys near our house). I said, "Dog's don't eat grass, darling!" and gave him a friendly look. He said, "dogs do eat grass actually". I then tried to make a joke out of it, "Ha! Well, put it this way: no dog has accepted her offer yet!" and then he walked off saying, "you should listen more to your daughter."
In the other instance, this evening, a cyclist was convinced I hadn't seen him at a junction and was about to pull out (I had seen him and stopped) he then shouted at me and started shaking his head and pointing to it. When I finally pulled out, and overtook him, he suggested I pleasure myself rapidly.
☺ Oh dear. No, your hands are clean then.
Thought you might have been foisting unwanted centre right perspectives on innocent passers by.
Am I alone in being quite unimpressed by Rishi Sunak?
He's the John Major de nos jours and I can quite see him as the alternative to Boris Johnson once the latter steps down/is forced out (delete as appropriate).
He's likeable but I've seen bits of MDF in B&Q with more charisma and personality. Fair enough, we can't all be flamboyant peddlers of pie-in-the-sky optimism like the Prime Minister and after years of Boris's bluff and bluster, a more managerialist approach might not go amiss.
Party Conference speeches fall into two categories - those which say things the audience wants to hear and those which don't. The latter include Theresa May's "nasty party" speech and Kinnock's bravura takedown of Militant. When you have a majority of 80 just after an election, you have an opportunity to explore the unpalatable and not be afraid to say some unpleasant things to your audience (both inside and outside the hall).
Sunak, of course, ducked all this and decided to witter on about "balancing the books". Now, this may please the activists (even those who advocate continued borrowing) but it's a platitude which doesn't just require suspending credibility as much as dangling it 10,000 feet above the Grand Canyon on a very thin and fraying rope.
Laura K opined Sunak had offered no mechanism as to HOW said books were to be balanced. The Lafferites will demand tax cuts and obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. The NHS is sacrosanct as are other public services including, one imagines, the Police and armed forces so it's back to welfare (goodbye triple lock) but then we also have the "plan" to reform adult social care which Johnson has been on the brink of publishing for months .
Sunak could have been more honest but that would have involved him taking a modicum of political risk. Talking about tax rises may not go down well with the Conservative faithful but it's an honest conversation to have with an electorate that may now be wondering what the final bill for Covid-19 is going to be and how it will be paid (both by them and by future generations).
I agree with you about Sunak; far too early, and not enough substance shown yet, to pick him out as a future PM.
You repeat something I read on here every day, and often many times a day. Namely: obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. This statement seems to be accepted as fact by nearly everybody here.
Well, I'm in favour of paying more income tax personally: for the last 30 years, I think I've been under-taxed. Paying an extra £x per month for improved public services, and to reduce economic and social inequality, strikes me as good value for money. I'm retired now, and would be happy to pay more of my modest pension in tax. When I was working, on a good salary, I could have paid much more tax and still had a good lifestyle.
I know I'm not alone. Many/most people I know would be happy to be taxed more if that led to better public services.
I am sure that's true. But politically, when was the last occasion a party won a GE after promising that general taxes would rise?
There's another different but related issue, emphasised by the total lack of a plan from 2008 onwards to reduce debt, which is: When you owe 2 trillion and rising, what difference does a penny here on IT, 1% there on NI and 2% there on VAT going to make in the great scheme of things? To the ordinary punter what's the difference between an unpayable debt of 2tn and one of 2.5tn when interest rates are approximately zero?
Agree there is no point in appraising Rishi until he stops giving away free money is large spadefuls and gives us a coherent plan for balancing the books and debt reduction.
When I was younger I had a large black Shepherd dog. On several occasions while out shopping, I would turn around and find a toddler parting him on the head or ears. The parents would then ask "does he bite".*
My answer "it's a bit late to ask that now!" It astonishes me how some people let their kids approach strangers dogs.
Trump blowing up the stimulus talks and his tweets suggest he’s saying to those effected . Vote for me or you starve and lose your home . Looks like a desperate Hail Mary . Perhaps if you’re desperate enough it might work , alternatively it could make people so angry that they’ll walk through a hurricane to vote him out .
In terms of the polling the Survey USA poll should send the GOP into meltdown . The headline figure of a lead of 10 for Biden isn’t as big as some other pollsters . But the write up says before Trumps hospitalization he was 8 points behind , the polling after that the sample showed a 16 point lead for Biden !
When I was younger I had a large black Shepherd dog. On several occasions while out shopping, I would turn around and find a toddler parting him on the head or ears. The parents would then ask "does he bite".*
My answer "it's a bit late to ask that now!" It astonishes me how some people let their kids approach strangers dogs.
* He didn't.
Isn't the major duty of care on the dog owner? If you own a dog that can harm a 2 year old you are in the same position of duty of care as someone walking out with their pet lion.
He has closed down Llandudno and yet allows English visitors to pass through the 4 border counties and holiday in Gwynedd
I know nothing of Welsh politics, but Drakeford gets slagged off so often here that I was surprised to see him as one of only three politicians with positive ratings (Sturgeon was another, so perhaps it's a reaction to perceived problems in UK governance?).
This board leans quite a lot more to the right than the electorate.
This board is full of high earners, with a high iq, an interest in and knowledge of stats and political theory. .
You're just making me feel like the odd one out with that list.
Oh do stop it. You're a total brainbox. All agree.
When I was younger I had a large black Shepherd dog. On several occasions while out shopping, I would turn around and find a toddler parting him on the head or ears. The parents would then ask "does he bite".*
My answer "it's a bit late to ask that now!" It astonishes me how some people let their kids approach strangers dogs.
* He didn't.
Isn't the major duty of care on the dog owner? If you own a dog that can harm a 2 year old you are in the same position of duty of care as someone walking out with their pet lion.
Yes, and I would never take a biting dog out in a crowd.
Plenty of less responsible dog owners do though, as we see in accident and emergency fairly often.
Am I alone in being quite unimpressed by Rishi Sunak?
He's the John Major de nos jours and I can quite see him as the alternative to Boris Johnson once the latter steps down/is forced out (delete as appropriate).
He's likeable but I've seen bits of MDF in B&Q with more charisma and personality. Fair enough, we can't all be flamboyant peddlers of pie-in-the-sky optimism like the Prime Minister and after years of Boris's bluff and bluster, a more managerialist approach might not go amiss.
Party Conference speeches fall into two categories - those which say things the audience wants to hear and those which don't. The latter include Theresa May's "nasty party" speech and Kinnock's bravura takedown of Militant. When you have a majority of 80 just after an election, you have an opportunity to explore the unpalatable and not be afraid to say some unpleasant things to your audience (both inside and outside the hall).
Sunak, of course, ducked all this and decided to witter on about "balancing the books". Now, this may please the activists (even those who advocate continued borrowing) but it's a platitude which doesn't just require suspending credibility as much as dangling it 10,000 feet above the Grand Canyon on a very thin and fraying rope.
Laura K opined Sunak had offered no mechanism as to HOW said books were to be balanced. The Lafferites will demand tax cuts and obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. The NHS is sacrosanct as are other public services including, one imagines, the Police and armed forces so it's back to welfare (goodbye triple lock) but then we also have the "plan" to reform adult social care which Johnson has been on the brink of publishing for months .
Sunak could have been more honest but that would have involved him taking a modicum of political risk. Talking about tax rises may not go down well with the Conservative faithful but it's an honest conversation to have with an electorate that may now be wondering what the final bill for Covid-19 is going to be and how it will be paid (both by them and by future generations).
Anyone, whilst they throw around free money, is likely to remain popular. When they start asking for their money back, less so.
Sunak is undoubtedly a confident speaker and is well able to appear competent in his . compared with Johnson's gibberish Sunaklooks very good.
I am not entirely sure some of his measures have been optimal, particularly over the last two or three weeks. Even if they have, as Chancellor in a pandemic, he will (probably unfairly) carry the can for the economic armageddon we are entering.
The only Conservative politician, in my view, who's stock has risen sharply, from a low base, through the pandemic is Hunt. Hunt is a lot smarter than he appeared to be when he was Secretary of State for Health.
He has closed down Llandudno and yet allows English visitors to pass through the 4 border counties and holiday in Gwynedd
I know nothing of Welsh politics, but Drakeford gets slagged off so often here that I was surprised to see him as one of only three politicians with positive ratings (Sturgeon was another, so perhaps it's a reaction to perceived problems in UK governance?).
This board leans quite a lot more to the right than the electorate.
I think MexicanPete is a Labour Party supporter in Wales and he has been very critical of Drakeford. I think ValleyBoy is a Labour Party supporter in Wales and he has expressed similar views.
I don't know where you are located, but if you are not actually in Wales, I expect you know feck all about Welsh politics.
Although Labour leaning under Starmer, and generally of the faith under Blair, I am less enthusiastic than I once was. It is nonetheless fair to say my historical hostility towards the Conservative Party has gone into overdrive since they made the monumentally ridiculous schoolboy error of electing a charlatan like Johnson as their leader and hence Prime Minister. I am also in the fortunate position in the Vale of Glamorgan to have Alun Cairns as my MP. After his outrageous behaviour over the Ross England affair I am comfortable, despite his lackies' doing my family a great service five years ago, in disliking his brand of sycophancy.
Drakeford being of the Corbnynista faction of the Labour Party is not, as you point out, my favourite politician. The WAG front bench with the exception of the excellent Kirsty Williams are grade A idiots. That said Drakeford's Covid performance has been surprising less bad than anticipated (not the highest hurdle to overcome, granted) although the wheels look like they might be falling off at this moment in time. Drakeford's performance has been ten times better than Johnson's, however as I am rating Johnson currently in fractions, Drakeford probably struggles to make a 5 out of 10.
The only person I rate in Welsh politics is Neil McEvoy. I like Neil because he is someone who was once Labour and once Plaid Cymru, but left them both. And he is a repeated and inveterate troublemaker, which is what I believe all politicians should be.
I think YDoethur, on this board, memorably described Neil McEvoy in a borrowed phrase as: "He's madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of last year's "Mr. Madman" competition,"
I didn't vote at the last GE, though I would have enthusiastically hauled myself to the voting booth to give the smug Cairns the kicking he so richly deserves if I had lived in VoG.
I haven't forgiven or forgotten Cairns renaming the Severn Crossing as the Prince of Wales Bridge, as SoS for Wales.
Trump actually improved after his diagnosis but before he went into hospital only behind by 4 points so some sympathy vote perhaps . His numbers crashed when he was in hospital which included his joyride . Not sure what his antics yesterday might do to his polling.
He has had a hilariously chaste Sexting scandal. Everyone had got over it. Now there's another affair revealed. Everyone is now assuming there must be a string of infidelity. What other secrets? Maybe love child's?
And as we all know from British politics a serial philander has no chance of being elected.
In a normal election this would be a problem. In this one? I mean... who would even notice?
Could easily cost the Dems locally, but Nationally? Won't be noticed.
Sorry, I meant for Biden's chances in NC. My guess it will depend on whether this was kno0wn about at the DNC level and whether they deliberately kept quiet
Hard to tell. It's never helpful, and in a tight contest could make all the difference. Then again did that kind of thing hamper Trump, or Boris? Really don't know, but definitely not a plus point.
Bush Snr of course won Florida in 1992 despite losing the election overall to Bill Clinton and Nixon also won Florida in 1960 despite the Kennedy victory overall, it is even possible Trump could hold Ohio as well on current polling but Biden still wins by holding the Hillary states plus Michigan, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin
I think Biden will also win Arizona but I'm not confident beyond that (not that he would need it but the spread players might). Don't forget the congressional districts in Maine and Nebraska and Biden could easily win a couple more EC votes.
My gut says that Trump holds Florida and Arizona (the latter is based on spending some time in rural Arizona, and is rather at odds with the polls). However, I don't see him coming close in New Mexico, New Hampshire or Nevada.
I wouldn't be surprised, however, to see Ohio and Iowa flip to the Dems. I think there's a tendency to miss just how much the Midwest has missed out on the last four years of US economic growth. (It's a great mystery why Trump did so little to help the region that propelled him to victory, while pursuing policies that mostly benefits people on the Coasts.)
I'm with you on FL and AZ. I actually think he will win NV (my thinking there is that a state so heavily dependent on tourism and events will want to get things back to normal ASAP which favours Trump). I think he has a chance in NH, I don't think he does in NM (although BLM and Hispanics have clashed there). Given CO wasn't that far out last time, I would have that as an outside bet.
If he does lose states, then I am thinking Iowa and Wisconsin, mainly because of the impact of his sanctions against China on the agricultural community there. That doesn't really play out in Ohio (I think he will be fine there).
Still thinking - despite @not_on_fire's comments - that VA could be surprisingly close.
I've been tracking the Morning Consult state level Presidential approval/disapproval numbers, and New Hampshire looks really ugly for the President - he's at something like -15 net. Virginia, where he was -7, looks like a much more likely flip. (Nevada was in the middle, -9 or -10).
My trek through New Mexico suggests is that it is not fertile country for Trump, for three reasons: (1) it's much more urban than Arizona (Albuquerque and Santa Fe are close to half the population between them), (2) it's much more Hispanic (especially in rural areas), and (3) it's state level politics (unlike AZ) is dominated by the Dems *and* the people are generally happy with their Governor and state legislatures. Plus there's gut: simply, rural New Mexico didn't have many Trump posters, which was a complete contrast to Arizona.
FiveThirtyEight gives Biden a 98% chance of winning Virginia with Biden winning by an average of 12 points. Whilst one shouldn't hang off Nate Silver's every word, it would be truly astonishing if Trump won there.
I wouldn't say astonishing. Virginia has migrated from bright red to purple in recent year and is definitely looking pretty hypoxic these days, but a Trump victory there would plausibly not require Russian spetsnaz parachuting in and stealing every ballot box from the DC 'burbs. It's not very likely though.
He has closed down Llandudno and yet allows English visitors to pass through the 4 border counties and holiday in Gwynedd
I know nothing of Welsh politics, but Drakeford gets slagged off so often here that I was surprised to see him as one of only three politicians with positive ratings (Sturgeon was another, so perhaps it's a reaction to perceived problems in UK governance?).
This board leans quite a lot more to the right than the electorate.
I think MexicanPete is a Labour Party supporter in Wales and he has been very critical of Drakeford. I think ValleyBoy is a Labour Party supporter in Wales and he has expressed similar views.
I don't know where you are located, but if you are not actually in Wales, I expect you know feck all about Welsh politics.
Although Labour leaning under Starmer, and generally of the faith under Blair, I am less enthusiastic than I once was. It is nonetheless fair to say my historical hostility towards the Conservative Party has gone into overdrive since they made the monumentally ridiculous schoolboy error of electing a charlatan like Johnson as their leader and hence Prime Minister. I am also in the fortunate position in the Vale of Glamorgan to have Alun Cairns as my MP. After his outrageous behaviour over the Ross England affair I am comfortable, despite his lackies' doing my family a great service five years ago, in disliking his brand of sycophancy.
Drakeford being of the Corbnynista faction of the Labour Party is not, as you point out, my favourite politician. The WAG front bench with the exception of the excellent Kirsty Williams are grade A idiots. That said Drakeford's Covid performance has been surprising less bad than anticipated (not the highest hurdle to overcome, granted) although the wheels look like they might be falling off at this moment in time. Drakeford's performance has been ten times better than Johnson's, however as I am rating Johnson currently in fractions, Drakeford probably struggles to make a 5 out of 10.
The only person I rate in Welsh politics is Neil McEvoy. I like Neil because he is someone who was once Labour and once Plaid Cymru, but left them both. And he is a repeated and inveterate troublemaker, which is what I believe all politicians should be.
I think YDoethur, on this board, memorably described Neil McEvoy in a borrowed phrase as: "He's madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of last year's "Mr. Madman" competition,"
I didn't vote at the last GE, though I would have enthusiastically hauled myself to the voting booth to give the smug Cairns the kicking he so richly deserves if I had lived in VoG.
I haven't forgiven or forgotten Cairns renaming the Severn Crossing as the Prince of Wales Bridge, as SoS for Wales.
McEvoy is interesting, although I don't know much about his Party.
I have met Cairns on a number of ocassions, and my late father would happily converse in Welsh with him, although he never voted for him either. Cairns is a genuinely nice guy to speak to, and an excellent local MP. When he puts his party political hat on however, he loses all humanity. He writes utter partisan bollucks, when he is asked to submit pieces to The Cowbridge/Llanwit Gem (freenewspaper) whilst people like Jane Hutt write readable community based articles. Cairns should have been thrown out of the Party over Ross England, and his arse-licking, such as the bridge renaming, allowed me to vote Labour at a point in time when I really didn't want to.
I’ve been thinking about that statistic and study that you quoted recently which appeared to show that people who die of coronavirus on average reduce their actuarially expected lifespan by 10 years. Does this actually tell us anything meaningful? Surely everyone who actually dies, dies earlier than their actuarial calculation would have predicted?
Say, before I catch an aeroplane, I am 59 years old, (which I happen to be), and I have an actuarial life expectancy of say 80, (which perhaps I do have; fingers crossed), and the plane crashes and I die. Then I have reduced my actuarial life expectancy by 21 years. Why? Because the plane I was on crashed. Everyone else who boarded a plane that day that didn’t crash has maintained their actuarial life expectancy – or increased it minimally. My life expectancy crashed because my plane crashed. The life expectancy of people who die of coronavirus crashes because they are the people who caught and died of coronavirus.
I suspect I’m missing something here. But it seems to me that most of the actuarial adjustment comes from the fact that the dead people being analysed were people that - died!
To me there seems to have been a misstep taken in this study somewhere between prior probability and known outcome. Bayes and his Bombs may or may not be relevant to my thinking? I’m not a statistician but I’m sure there are other on this blog can determine if I am onto something - or quite possibly talking bunkum!
Comments
That's not tanking.
https://www.itv.com/news/wales/2020-09-14/poll-reveals-how-much-political-leaders-are-liked-and-disliked-in-wales
Though given Drakeford high scores on just 5.3/10, it is hardly a ringing endorsement.
Low 2.2s for Drakeford and Starmer, a third for Adam Price, and failures for the rest, in degree terms.
In particular, it's a slice of high society.
On the forward estimate of how long the exponential can continue - we got to the peak in March and to now with only around 7-8% of the population infected, so there is certainly the fuel to reach that peak again without bending the exponential down that much. It is a longer slower slope, with more area underneath and more younger cases so we could get to 25% of the population infected by autumn/winter peak and there would still have fuel to continue the rise - of course you would assume that much more serious restrictions would kick in by that time.
If nothing changes public health wise, the exponent would bend down because an infected person would, by peak, be meeting 75% infectible people rather than 92%, that alone simplistically would curve things down to around 1.1 by peak. So, that could flatten the peak out to 7-8 weeks time. But like a fire, it goes a series of mini flare ups: student body all infected, spark elsewhere, Manchester 30% infected, oh look East Anglia is still tinder dry and as the old flames die, it is the new flare up that increasingly determine how fast the fire is spreading.
Also, if cold outdoor temperature and staying indoors is a factor in R, that may counterbalance any effect from herd immunity increasing.
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313537442625056768?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313537849078231043?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313539388488536065?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313541222452154372?s=20
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1313542526347902978?s=20
https://twitter.com/YouGov/status/1313376167706144769?s=20
In one instance (Sunday) my daughter tried to offer a man's dog grass to eat whilst walking in the woods (she's 20 months, and she does that with sheep and donkeys near our house). I said, "Dog's don't eat grass, darling!" and gave him a friendly look. He said, "dogs do eat grass actually". I then tried to make a joke out of it, "Ha! Well, put it this way: no dog has accepted her offer yet!" and then he walked off saying, "you should listen more to your daughter."
In the other instance, this evening, a cyclist was convinced I hadn't seen him at a junction and was about to pull out (I had seen him and stopped) he then shouted at me and started shaking his head and pointing to it. When I finally pulled out, and overtook him, he suggested I pleasure myself rapidly.
You repeat something I read on here every day, and often many times a day. Namely: obviously everyone is in favour of tax rises as long as it isn't their taxes being raised. This statement seems to be accepted as fact by nearly everybody here.
Well, I'm in favour of paying more income tax personally: for the last 30 years, I think I've been under-taxed. Paying an extra £x per month for improved public services, and to reduce economic and social inequality, strikes me as good value for money. I'm retired now, and would be happy to pay more of my modest pension in tax. When I was working, on a good salary, I could have paid much more tax and still had a good lifestyle.
I know I'm not alone. Many/most people I know would be happy to be taxed more if that led to better public services.
I'm sure he knows that.
Get your daughter to draw some lightning bolt tattoos on your head with a marker pen.
Do so more in blue ink on your hands - the worse the better. LOVE and HATE on the knuckles is always good.
Instead of carrying your water in bottle, empty, wash out and fill with water a large tin of the cheaper kind of export lager.
You will notice a marked improvement in the social skill of others......
Basically, turn Project Orion upside down - a pump driven by nuclear explosions.
Bit hard on the locals - but hey, that's what God made Swansea for.
End of the day I'm a Shire Tory. Best I could do would be to set the dogs on him.. if I had any.
Drakeford being of the Corbnynista faction of the Labour Party is not, as you point out, my favourite politician. The WAG front bench with the exception of the excellent Kirsty Williams are grade A idiots. That said Drakeford's Covid performance has been surprising less bad than anticipated (not the highest hurdle to overcome, granted) although the wheels look like they might be falling off at this moment in time. Drakeford's performance has been ten times better than Johnson's, however as I am rating Johnson currently in fractions, Drakeford probably struggles to make a 5 out of 10.
Thought you might have been foisting unwanted centre right perspectives on innocent passers by.
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313562650593329157
https://twitter.com/PpollingNumbers/status/1313562282840989698
https://twitter.com/FPWellman/status/1313551232724688897
There's another different but related issue, emphasised by the total lack of a plan from 2008 onwards to reduce debt, which is: When you owe 2 trillion and rising, what difference does a penny here on IT, 1% there on NI and 2% there on VAT going to make in the great scheme of things? To the ordinary punter what's the difference between an unpayable debt of 2tn and one of 2.5tn when interest rates are approximately zero?
Agree there is no point in appraising Rishi until he stops giving away free money is large spadefuls and gives us a coherent plan for balancing the books and debt reduction.
My answer "it's a bit late to ask that now!" It astonishes me how some people let their kids approach strangers dogs.
* He didn't.
In terms of the polling the Survey USA poll should send the GOP into meltdown . The headline figure of a lead of 10 for Biden isn’t as big as some other pollsters . But the write up says before Trumps hospitalization he was 8 points behind , the polling after that the sample showed a 16 point lead for Biden !
But I'm not sure Trump's psyche allows him to be a loser.
NEW THREAD
Plenty of less responsible dog owners do though, as we see in accident and emergency fairly often.
Sunak is undoubtedly a confident speaker and is well able to appear competent in his . compared with Johnson's gibberish Sunaklooks very good.
I am not entirely sure some of his measures have been optimal, particularly over the last two or three weeks. Even if they have, as Chancellor in a pandemic, he will (probably unfairly) carry the can for the economic armageddon we are entering.
The only Conservative politician, in my view, who's stock has risen sharply, from a low base, through the pandemic is Hunt. Hunt is a lot smarter than he appeared to be when he was Secretary of State for Health.
I think YDoethur, on this board, memorably described Neil McEvoy in a borrowed phrase as: "He's madder than Mad Jack McMad, the winner of last year's "Mr. Madman" competition,"
I didn't vote at the last GE, though I would have enthusiastically hauled myself to the voting booth to give the smug Cairns the kicking he so richly deserves if I had lived in VoG.
I haven't forgiven or forgotten Cairns renaming the Severn Crossing as the Prince of Wales Bridge, as SoS for Wales.
Trump actually improved after his diagnosis but before he went into hospital only behind by 4 points so some sympathy vote perhaps . His numbers crashed when he was in hospital which included his joyride . Not sure what his antics yesterday might do to his polling.
I have met Cairns on a number of ocassions, and my late father would happily converse in Welsh with him, although he never voted for him either. Cairns is a genuinely nice guy to speak to, and an excellent local MP. When he puts his party political hat on however, he loses all humanity. He writes utter partisan bollucks, when he is asked to submit pieces to The Cowbridge/Llanwit Gem (freenewspaper) whilst people like Jane Hutt write readable community based articles. Cairns should have been thrown out of the Party over Ross England, and his arse-licking, such as the bridge renaming, allowed me to vote Labour at a point in time when I really didn't want to.
I’ve been thinking about that statistic and study that you quoted recently which appeared to show that people who die of coronavirus on average reduce their actuarially expected lifespan by 10 years. Does this actually tell us anything meaningful? Surely everyone who actually dies, dies earlier than their actuarial calculation would have predicted?
Say, before I catch an aeroplane, I am 59 years old, (which I happen to be), and I have an actuarial life expectancy of say 80, (which perhaps I do have; fingers crossed), and the plane crashes and I die. Then I have reduced my actuarial life expectancy by 21 years. Why? Because the plane I was on crashed. Everyone else who boarded a plane that day that didn’t crash has maintained their actuarial life expectancy – or increased it minimally. My life expectancy crashed because my plane crashed. The life expectancy of people who die of coronavirus crashes because they are the people who caught and died of coronavirus.
I suspect I’m missing something here. But it seems to me that most of the actuarial adjustment comes from the fact that the dead people being analysed were people that - died!
To me there seems to have been a misstep taken in this study somewhere between prior probability and known outcome. Bayes and his Bombs may or may not be relevant to my thinking? I’m not a statistician but I’m sure there are other on this blog can determine if I am onto something - or quite possibly talking bunkum!