Howdy, Stranger!

It looks like you're new here. If you want to get involved, click one of these buttons!

On the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon – politicalbetting

SystemSystem Posts: 8,489
edited October 6 in General
imageOn the spreads Biden has moved up from 281 ECVs a month ago to 313 this afternoon – politicalbetting.com

My main betting on the White House Race has been on the SportingIndex spread betting markets.

Read the full story here

«134567

Comments

  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 85,321
    edited October 6
    Primus inter pares.

    Done solely to ensure so everyone can comment on this thread.
  • The logic on buying Biden for me is that there's potential for a lot of upsides and not much upside in this market.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    Still value.
  • GrandioseGrandiose Posts: 2,321
    Clinton peaked in about a week's time, four years ago.

    If I were in this market (I am not) I would wait for then.

    Personally, I value my ability to sleep well at night too highly for the spreads (but good luck all).
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    The article that tweet is based is a great example of why the Athletic is head and shoulders above the rest of the sports coverage. Real in-depth detail.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    New footage of Trump leaving the medical centre on his steroids.

    image
  • kinabalukinabalu Posts: 14,742
    Yep, looking good.

    And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -

    What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    Scott_xP said:
    If you're in the whole feeling a bit off/not sure it's covid why wouldn't you minimise your contacts ? Doing a church reading in her circs is crazy.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Pulpstar said:

    Scott_xP said:
    If you're in the whole feeling a bit off/not sure it's covid why wouldn't you minimise your contacts ? Doing a church reading in her circs is crazy.
    Did she also belt out some hymns? Because we know singing in church has caused a number of spreading events.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923
    kinabalu said:

    Yep, looking good.

    And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -

    What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?

    As at yesterday, across all three of 538, Economist and YouGov models, fair value for Biden ECVs was around 335, i.e. 132 on the Supremacy market. You might want to adjust that downwards for GOP shenanigans, or adjust it upwards if you think things are trending away from Trump.

    Personally I'm holding my open bet (like Mike's, equivalent to a buy at 284) for now.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066
    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    Why not just lock down the university? ;)
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Tbh, it's not a disaster. Students are exactly the sort of cohort we need to build herd immunity. Anyone under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions shouldn't be afraid of catching it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Indeed. If this had been around in my Freshers week we'd be in the high thousands by now.
  • DAlexanderDAlexander Posts: 581
    Maybe people have lower expectations of Biden because they feel he shouldn't win.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    RobD said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    Why not just lock down the university? ;)
    Should have told anyone who wasn't worried about catching the virus to come early and stay in the Halls, have one big Freshers party. Treat it like Big Brother - we'll supply food and alcohol, only rule is you can't get out.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923
    MaxPB said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Tbh, it's not a disaster. Students are exactly the sort of cohort we need to build herd immunity. Anyone under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions shouldn't be afraid of catching it.
    It's not a disaster in itself, but could rapidly become one if, as is very likely, the infection can't be confined to the students and spreads through the city.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 49,021

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    Why not just lock down the university? ;)
    Should have told anyone who wasn't worried about catching the virus to come early and stay in the Halls, have one big Freshers party. Treat it like Big Brother - we'll supply food and alcohol, only rule is you can't get out.
    I suspect their lawyers would have fainted at the prospect! Not everyone is impervious at that age, unfortunately.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106
    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
  • @kinabalu - fpt, enquiry about ECV Supremacy Market

    Can't do any better than use 538s suggestion. That reckons 338/200 to Biden so a supremacy of 138. I'd round that down to 100 for MoE which is still 14 points above Biden's buy price of 86.

    Personally I bought in much lower than that (hat-tip Richard Nabavi) but I'd be happy to buy in again at 86 if Sporting would let me but for some reason the bastards limit strictly the extent to which they're prepared to supplement my pension.

    Subject to all the usual caveats (spread betting is reisky etc) I'd suggest you calculate the maximum loss you could bear without becoming suicidal and figure out what stake would lose you that if you finished 200 points down. Then buy for that stake. (E.g. if you can bear to lose £1,000 your stake should be £5 per point.)

    I know the risks of spread betting and have been burned myself from time to time, but I think the downside risks here are low because of the extreme improbability of a Trump landslide. It's for that reason I have maxed out on this market.

    Hope that helps. Good luck.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    MaxPB said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Tbh, it's not a disaster. Students are exactly the sort of cohort we need to build herd immunity. Anyone under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions shouldn't be afraid of catching it.
    It's not a disaster in itself, but could rapidly become one if, as is very likely, the infection can't be confined to the students and spreads through the city.
    Yes, that's definitely a danger, hopefully the government will stand firm and refuse to lockdown the city.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    Why not just lock down the university? ;)
    Should have told anyone who wasn't worried about catching the virus to come early and stay in the Halls, have one big Freshers party. Treat it like Big Brother - we'll supply food and alcohol, only rule is you can't get out.
    I suspect their lawyers would have fainted at the prospect! Not everyone is impervious at that age, unfortunately.
    Its a rather tongue-in-cheek suggestion but not that bad of an idea. As for the lawyers, they are the bane of existance aren't they, but couldn't you get the students who come early to sign a waiver?
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,407

    MaxPB said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Tbh, it's not a disaster. Students are exactly the sort of cohort we need to build herd immunity. Anyone under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions shouldn't be afraid of catching it.
    It's not a disaster in itself, but could rapidly become one if, as is very likely, the infection can't be confined to the students and spreads through the city.
    Student goes to corner shop, owned by middle aged South Asian chap who owns it and is loathe to take time off for a few sniffles. Granny goes to corner shop.......
  • The article that tweet is based is a great example of why the Athletic is head and shoulders above the rest of the sports coverage. Real in-depth detail.
    Absolutely, I've been subscriber of The Athletic for over a year, best football analysis out there.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923

    MaxPB said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Tbh, it's not a disaster. Students are exactly the sort of cohort we need to build herd immunity. Anyone under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions shouldn't be afraid of catching it.
    It's not a disaster in itself, but could rapidly become one if, as is very likely, the infection can't be confined to the students and spreads through the city.
    Student goes to corner shop, owned by middle aged South Asian chap who owns it and is loathe to take time off for a few sniffles. Granny goes to corner shop.......
    Yes, I'm afraid that is all it takes.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    MaxPB said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Tbh, it's not a disaster. Students are exactly the sort of cohort we need to build herd immunity. Anyone under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions shouldn't be afraid of catching it.
    It's not a disaster in itself, but could rapidly become one if, as is very likely, the infection can't be confined to the students and spreads through the city.
    Student goes to corner shop, owned by middle aged South Asian chap who owns it and is loathe to take time off for a few sniffles. Granny goes to corner shop.......
    Bring the food and alcohol to the students. No need for them to go to the shop.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923

    They should only have allowed the engineering students to return to Uni. No risk of social interaction.

    Plus of course, having been told to wear a mask, they'd double it and wear two masks just to be on the safe side.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
    I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".

    As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.
  • FrancisUrquhartFrancisUrquhart Posts: 49,066

    The article that tweet is based is a great example of why the Athletic is head and shoulders above the rest of the sports coverage. Real in-depth detail.
    Absolutely, I've been subscriber of The Athletic for over a year, best football analysis out there.
    Apparently they have 400 full time writers now and theh are advertising like crazy...some private equity firm must be pumping big bucks into this concept.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553
    edited October 6
    Surely an "adult only vaccine" is for those over the age of 18, not 50 ?

    There are obviously sound reasons for vaccinating particular groups first, but any subsequent rationing is a political decision.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,407

    MaxPB said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    2% of the student population. I'm surprised its that low.
    Give it a couple of days...
    Tbh, it's not a disaster. Students are exactly the sort of cohort we need to build herd immunity. Anyone under the age of 40 without pre-existing conditions shouldn't be afraid of catching it.
    It's not a disaster in itself, but could rapidly become one if, as is very likely, the infection can't be confined to the students and spreads through the city.
    Student goes to corner shop, owned by middle aged South Asian chap who owns it and is loathe to take time off for a few sniffles. Granny goes to corner shop.......
    Bring the food and alcohol to the students. No need for them to go to the shop.
    Except do you think any University or College will be willing to match demand for the second? Or indeed Student own to it?

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
    I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".

    As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.
    The problem is that even if only 25% of people are afraid of their own shadows then the economy will not return to anything like normal. A national vaccination programme and a study for vaccines in kids is the only way to resolve this. We can't run an economy without everyone participating in full.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923
    Nigelb said:

    Surely an "adult only vaccine" is for those over the age of 18, not 50 ?
    I think that was in response to a question about whether children would be vaccinated.
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553

    Maybe people have lower expectations of Biden because they feel he shouldn't win.

    Would you care to expand on those feelings ?
  • NigelbNigelb Posts: 25,553
    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    I think such stories worthwhile, if only to clarify what government's plans actually are.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
    I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".

    As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.
    The problem is that even if only 25% of people are afraid of their own shadows then the economy will not return to anything like normal. A national vaccination programme and a study for vaccines in kids is the only way to resolve this. We can't run an economy without everyone participating in full.
    I think you're being overly pessimistic. Once we've vaccinated the vulnerable deaths could drop to zero at which point it ceases to be a major news story. A lot of young people already want to get back to normal, give it another six months plus their grandparents have been vaccinated and you're not going to stop them getting back to normal whether you want to or not.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    Nigelb said:

    Surely an "adult only vaccine" is for those over the age of 18, not 50 ?
    I think that was in response to a question about whether children would be vaccinated.
    Children won't be vaccinated because there hasn't been any studies or trials of any vaccine candidates for children. It's a hugely difficult thing to do because each age cohortay respond differently.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,407
    This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    MaxPB said:

    Nigelb said:

    Surely an "adult only vaccine" is for those over the age of 18, not 50 ?
    I think that was in response to a question about whether children would be vaccinated.
    Children won't be vaccinated because there hasn't been any studies or trials of any vaccine candidates for children. It's a hugely difficult thing to do because each age cohortay respond differently.
    Indeed. Thankfully this virus doesn't really affect children though. Once the elderly have been vaccinated and can hug their grandchildren, there's going to be little concern about whether kids get it or not. Plus if they do, they'll quickly get over it.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 409

    They should only have allowed the engineering students to return to Uni. No risk of social interaction.

    If it were an STI I'd agree with you. However, I only discovered when I left university that engineering students have a reputation for being drunks. Looking back... yeah maybe.
  • rkrkrkrkrkrk Posts: 6,407
    I'm on the 270 up at +37 for Biden.

    Electoral-vote.com is showing likely dem = 319, going up to 350 if you include barely dem and 374 if Biden wins the tossups.

    After that it's Texas which seems unlikely but not impossible.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
    Well quite, an obvious example is cinemas - they aren't mandated closed by fiat at the moment.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466

    This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....

    It all seems to be boiling down to LPF.

    I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
    I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".

    As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.
    The problem is that even if only 25% of people are afraid of their own shadows then the economy will not return to anything like normal. A national vaccination programme and a study for vaccines in kids is the only way to resolve this. We can't run an economy without everyone participating in full.
    I think you're being overly pessimistic. Once we've vaccinated the vulnerable deaths could drop to zero at which point it ceases to be a major news story. A lot of young people already want to get back to normal, give it another six months plus their grandparents have been vaccinated and you're not going to stop them getting back to normal whether you want to or not.
    Younger people sure, but everyone between 40 and 50? That's a pretty risk averse group, especially parents of children who won't be vaccinated.
  • Richard_NabaviRichard_Nabavi Posts: 26,923
    edited October 6



    I think you're being overly pessimistic. Once we've vaccinated the vulnerable deaths could drop to zero at which point it ceases to be a major news story. A lot of young people already want to get back to normal, give it another six months plus their grandparents have been vaccinated and you're not going to stop them getting back to normal whether you want to or not.

    I think that's right.

    I also think that once we're vaccinated, we oldies are going to be out on the razzle as soon as we jolly well can!
  • I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.

  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    edited October 6
    OnboardG1 said:

    They should only have allowed the engineering students to return to Uni. No risk of social interaction.

    If it were an STI I'd agree with you. However, I only discovered when I left university that engineering students have a reputation for being drunks. Looking back... yeah maybe.
    image
    https://xkcd.com/2355/
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,691
    edited October 6
    kinabalu said:

    Yep, looking good.

    And if I could pose a question to the group of posters (I think you know who you are) who are both keen punters and share my view that Trump will lose and it won't be close -

    What iyo is a Fair Value sell price for Biden EC supremacy right now?

    You need to stop wibbling about your bet.

    Never close out, that`s my rule. But remind me what your bet is and on which market specifically - and what it is currently trading at.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 409

    I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.

    He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659
    RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    Why not just lock down the university? ;)
    Should have told anyone who wasn't worried about catching the virus to come early and stay in the Halls, have one big Freshers party. Treat it like Big Brother - we'll supply food and alcohol, only rule is you can't get out.
    I suspect their lawyers would have fainted at the prospect! Not everyone is impervious at that age, unfortunately.
    What risk would you be prepared to accept? I haven't got the latest numbers in front of me, but the number of healthy under 20s in England who have died of Covid-19 stood, on 19 August, as four.

    Not four thousand.

    Not four hundred.

    Not forty.

    Four.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 409
    edited October 6

    This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....

    It all seems to be boiling down to LPF.

    I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
    I assume LPF doesn't mean Low Pass Filter, Lothian Pension Fund or Libertarian Party of Florida.
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
    I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".

    As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.
    Agreed. 100%.
  • StockyStocky Posts: 3,691
    edited October 6

    @kinabalu - fpt, enquiry about ECV Supremacy Market

    Can't do any better than use 538s suggestion. That reckons 338/200 to Biden so a supremacy of 138. I'd round that down to 100 for MoE which is still 14 points above Biden's buy price of 86.

    Personally I bought in much lower than that (hat-tip Richard Nabavi) but I'd be happy to buy in again at 86 if Sporting would let me but for some reason the bastards limit strictly the extent to which they're prepared to supplement my pension.

    Subject to all the usual caveats (spread betting is reisky etc) I'd suggest you calculate the maximum loss you could bear without becoming suicidal and figure out what stake would lose you that if you finished 200 points down. Then buy for that stake. (E.g. if you can bear to lose £1,000 your stake should be £5 per point.)

    I know the risks of spread betting and have been burned myself from time to time, but I think the downside risks here are low because of the extreme improbability of a Trump landslide. It's for that reason I have maxed out on this market.

    Hope that helps. Good luck.

    Good post.

    If you agree that should Trump win it will be by a very narrow margin, Betfair`s "Trump Electoral College Votes" market at 270 -299 has Trump at 7.4 which would be a good insurance bet. (I think another poster mentioned this a couple of weeks back.)
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659
    The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    Doesn't make sense to me, I'd want the elderly and infirm to benefit from herd immunity.
  • UK government urged to classify leisure centres 'essential' or face mass closures

    Gyms and swimming pools also threatened by Covid pandemic

    UK Active chief says centres are vital to public health

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/06/government-urged-to-classify-leisure-centres-swimming-pools-gyms-essential-or-face-mass-closures-covid
  • contrariancontrarian Posts: 2,929

    UK government urged to classify leisure centres 'essential' or face mass closures

    Gyms and swimming pools also threatened by Covid pandemic

    UK Active chief says centres are vital to public health

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/06/government-urged-to-classify-leisure-centres-swimming-pools-gyms-essential-or-face-mass-closures-covid

    Johnson's crusade against Obesity going well then
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659
    MaxPB said:

    The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    Doesn't make sense to me, I'd want the elderly and infirm to benefit from herd immunity.
    Wouldn't we get there anyway, if younger fitter people are encouraged to mix freely?
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,890

    This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....

    It all seems to be boiling down to LPF.

    I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
    The French may also have been bought off with a promise for a favourable deal at the next Common Fisheries Policy quota negotiations, or something else.

    There's always been the potential for different EU countries to use the Brexit negotiations as leverage in internal EU disputes. They've done surprisingly well to avoid that so far, or at least to avoid it becoming public.

    But it's a 2020 sort of way that talks might be derailed at the last moment.
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    MaxPB said:

    The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    Doesn't make sense to me, I'd want the elderly and infirm to benefit from herd immunity.
    Wouldn't we get there anyway, if younger fitter people are encouraged to mix freely?
    More slowly and with a lot of economic damage in the process. We're storing up a lot of long term issues at the moment with unemployment, problems that will have a large longer term cost than a few old people dying a few months early, to put it bluntly.
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,758

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    No, it's not really. The government will push a national vaccination scheme for everyone over the age of 18. Not vaccinating 18-50 year olds will have a huge economic cost because it will take years for this cohort to acquire herd immunity and for life to resume as normal. A vaccine is a shortcut to a resumption of non distanced life, why buy 120m doses of we're only going to use half of them (two doses per person).
    Quite rightly care workers and the vulnerable will get the vaccine first, as they should, then we will get back to normal.

    Healthy young adults will eventually get the vaccine but we'd already be back to normal by the time they do.
    No with the way the government has been fear mongering about the virus we won't return to normal until the vaccine programme has been completed. People are afraid of their own shadows at the moment.
    I don't agree. Many young people are scared of infecting their loved ones - "don't kill your grandparents".

    As far as I'm concerned once the vulnerable have been vaccinated I'm eager to get back to normal. I don't care about myself, I just don't want my grandparents to get it.
    Is "back to normal" for you even more time as a keyboard warrior on PB or less? 😂😂😂
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679
    edited October 6

    I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.

    It shouldn't be considered (or in effect be) a failure to not go.

    But of course I'd say that, I went to Uni (Go Leicester!)
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 117
    Interesting editorial by Osborne today. The lack of a rebuttal by the government is notable. Makes me wonder if Kate Bingham knows something about the potential side effects of a vaccine that we don't.

    Even if from a pure cost-benefit pov, universal immunisation isn't worth doing the psychological effect for the general population of a vaccine for everyone not being around the corner is potentially very high. Especially as politics and the media are doing their best to scare/guilt younger people into compliances with tales of long Covid etc (noticed another one on the BBC homepage today) - which no doubt are accurate, but not representative of a typical experience for a younger person.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 56,679

    UK government urged to classify leisure centres 'essential' or face mass closures

    Gyms and swimming pools also threatened by Covid pandemic

    UK Active chief says centres are vital to public health

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/06/government-urged-to-classify-leisure-centres-swimming-pools-gyms-essential-or-face-mass-closures-covid

    makes sense to me. Jogging along the road doesn't cut it for many.
  • Hello,

    Still :)
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818

    UK government urged to classify leisure centres 'essential' or face mass closures

    Gyms and swimming pools also threatened by Covid pandemic

    UK Active chief says centres are vital to public health

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/06/government-urged-to-classify-leisure-centres-swimming-pools-gyms-essential-or-face-mass-closures-covid

    That is in the event of a second lockdown
  • AnabobazinaAnabobazina Posts: 4,659
    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    Doesn't make sense to me, I'd want the elderly and infirm to benefit from herd immunity.
    Wouldn't we get there anyway, if younger fitter people are encouraged to mix freely?
    More slowly and with a lot of economic damage in the process. We're storing up a lot of long term issues at the moment with unemployment, problems that will have a large longer term cost than a few old people dying a few months early, to put it bluntly.
    Fair enough. Perhaps they could allow those under 50 to apply, being clear that it's first-come-first-served, which would at least reduce some of the political risk ("we have been clear from the start that healthy under-50s are not a priority group for the treatment").
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,758

    UK government urged to classify leisure centres 'essential' or face mass closures

    Gyms and swimming pools also threatened by Covid pandemic

    UK Active chief says centres are vital to public health

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/06/government-urged-to-classify-leisure-centres-swimming-pools-gyms-essential-or-face-mass-closures-covid

    Johnson's crusade against Obesity going well then
    His crusade against his own obesity doesn't look to be that successful either
  • Hello,

    Still :)

    Hello old bean.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,407

    This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....

    It all seems to be boiling down to LPF.

    I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
    The mystery is why the UK government has not been able to come forward with a State Aid regime and governance mechanism. "Trust us" has demonstrably failed, and for good reason.

  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106
    guybrush said:

    Interesting editorial by Osborne today. The lack of a rebuttal by the government is notable. Makes me wonder if Kate Bingham knows something about the potential side effects of a vaccine that we don't.

    Even if from a pure cost-benefit pov, universal immunisation isn't worth doing the psychological effect for the general population of a vaccine for everyone not being around the corner is potentially very high. Especially as politics and the media are doing their best to scare/guilt younger people into compliances with tales of long Covid etc (noticed another one on the BBC homepage today) - which no doubt are accurate, but not representative of a typical experience for a younger person.

    Matt Hancock refuted it pretty much immediately, the current plan is to vaccinate everyone over the age of 18.
  • HYUFDHYUFD Posts: 77,818
    OnboardG1 said:

    I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.

    He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.
    That depends, if Douglas Ross leads Unionists to a majority at Holyrood next year and Sturgeon loses her majority he will be the greatest Scottish Tory leader in history and worthy of a knighthood if not more.

    Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster
  • MaxPBMaxPB Posts: 22,106

    This struck me as interesting - "LPF and governance" - not "Fish" - and from reports the UK has been unclear on "LPF and governance" beyond "trust us" - which is brave under the circumstances....

    It all seems to be boiling down to LPF.

    I think the rest of the EU have told the French to shut up about Fish, so we will get our way on that, probably with a transition.
    The mystery is why the UK government has not been able to come forward with a State Aid regime and governance mechanism. "Trust us" has demonstrably failed, and for good reason.

    Because we don't need one. It's an egregious demand from EU.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 409
    HYUFD said:

    OnboardG1 said:

    I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.

    He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.
    That depends, if Douglas Ross leads Unionists to a majority at Holyrood next year and Sturgeon loses her majority he will be the greatest Scottish Tory leader in history and worthy of a knighthood if not more.

    Of course part of that would be winning the Moray seat at Holyrood held by the SNP but which he holds at Westminster
    Hillary Clinton has more chance of being the President.
  • Hello,

    Still :)

    Hello old bean.
    I see PB fantasy league is worth looking at again.... after losing to the Toffees, I was thinking everything about footie was going to be a write off this year..... and now 'arry rednapp is tipping us for the league (I think not)!
  • LostPasswordLostPassword Posts: 1,890
    The distribution policy should depend on the characteristics of the vaccine. From the long twitter thread that was posted here a while ago these could vary quite markedly.

    Some of the vaccines will be less effective in the elderly. Some might protect against lung damage, but not prevent transmission. Some may have serious side effects.

    The worst thing we could do now would be to come up with a rigid plan for an idealised vaccine and then stick to that plan when it doesn't fit the first vaccine that becomes available.
  • guybrushguybrush Posts: 117
    MaxPB said:

    guybrush said:

    Interesting editorial by Osborne today. The lack of a rebuttal by the government is notable. Makes me wonder if Kate Bingham knows something about the potential side effects of a vaccine that we don't.

    Even if from a pure cost-benefit pov, universal immunisation isn't worth doing the psychological effect for the general population of a vaccine for everyone not being around the corner is potentially very high. Especially as politics and the media are doing their best to scare/guilt younger people into compliances with tales of long Covid etc (noticed another one on the BBC homepage today) - which no doubt are accurate, but not representative of a typical experience for a younger person.

    Matt Hancock refuted it pretty much immediately, the current plan is to vaccinate everyone over the age of 18.
    Fair enough, need to pay more attention!
  • Pro_RataPro_Rata Posts: 2,073
    The university outbreaks leave me wondering whether the Risk Segmentation advocates had it backwards. Not, lock up your old but lock up your young, as PT suggests.

    In hindsight perhaps we could have thrown a ring round and effectively campus-ised even city based universities: healthy - come along; young & shielding - here is our remote offer; home based - we have an accommodation deal this year only if you want, lecturing - let the early courses be done by the younger, healthier academics and structure remote/onsite accordingly, and isolate those guys after work; similarly student only bars/Tesco Metros staffed accordingly. With lots and lots of advanced thought and planning it is a segmentation strategy that might have had some degree of success.
  • CarlottaVanceCarlottaVance Posts: 42,407
    edited October 6
    Left wing blog applauds exports and jobs success.....

  • BurgessianBurgessian Posts: 469
    OnboardG1 said:

    I'm turning into a fan of Douglas Ross.

    He's going to end up with a Ruth Davidson problem. He's not going to be able to save the Scottish Tories because Johnson insists on shitting in his cornflakes every morning, but he's going to struggle to get back into Westminster politics even if he does as good a job as he can in the circumstances.
    His problem is getting airtime at the moment and, probably, for some time yet. Having said that the stream of sensible policy proposals is providing a credible platform. And he is making some effort to distance from Boris - his resignation over Cummings very handy there.

    When the Scottish Parl campaign opens, and the media is required to report the other parties, I think there is potential for him to generate an uptick in the SCon numbers. I think this is what happened in 2016 when Ruth got going. SLAB still stuck with Leonard means they will struggle despite Sir Keir's best efforts.
  • dixiedeandixiedean Posts: 8,640
    Pro_Rata said:

    The university outbreaks leave me wondering whether the Risk Segmentation advocates had it backwards. Not, lock up your old but lock up your young, as PT suggests.

    In hindsight perhaps we could have thrown a ring round and effectively campus-ised even city based universities: healthy - come along; young & shielding - here is our remote offer; home based - we have an accommodation deal this year only if you want, lecturing - let the early courses be done by the younger, healthier academics and structure remote/onsite accordingly, and isolate those guys after work; similarly student only bars/Tesco Metros staffed accordingly. With lots and lots of advanced thought and planning it is a segmentation strategy that might have had some degree of success.

    In London?
  • kle4 said:

    UK government urged to classify leisure centres 'essential' or face mass closures

    Gyms and swimming pools also threatened by Covid pandemic

    UK Active chief says centres are vital to public health

    https://www.theguardian.com/sport/2020/oct/06/government-urged-to-classify-leisure-centres-swimming-pools-gyms-essential-or-face-mass-closures-covid

    makes sense to me. Jogging along the road doesn't cut it for many.
    My gym is still temperature zapping everyone at reception and cleansing everything within an inch of its life.
  • Pro_Rata said:

    The university outbreaks leave me wondering whether the Risk Segmentation advocates had it backwards. Not, lock up your old but lock up your young, as PT suggests.

    In hindsight perhaps we could have thrown a ring round and effectively campus-ised even city based universities: healthy - come along; young & shielding - here is our remote offer; home based - we have an accommodation deal this year only if you want, lecturing - let the early courses be done by the younger, healthier academics and structure remote/onsite accordingly, and isolate those guys after work; similarly student only bars/Tesco Metros staffed accordingly. With lots and lots of advanced thought and planning it is a segmentation strategy that might have had some degree of success.

    Daughter's fresher friends are in lockdown or self-isolating all over the shop - Edinburgh, Sheffield, Manchester, Birmingham and latest reports being Warwick, Bristol and Durham. Oxbridge of course only now starting term (tho Brookes was early on) too. It just seems to be 'working out' that all these young folk will be getting it whilst away from their older relatives... The fact anyone is surprised this is happening is hard to understand.
  • RobD said:

    RobD said:

    Coronavirus outbreak at Nottingham University as 425 students and eight staff test positive as city ‘days’ from lockdown

    Why not just lock down the university? ;)
    Should have told anyone who wasn't worried about catching the virus to come early and stay in the Halls, have one big Freshers party. Treat it like Big Brother - we'll supply food and alcohol, only rule is you can't get out.
    I suspect their lawyers would have fainted at the prospect! Not everyone is impervious at that age, unfortunately.
    What risk would you be prepared to accept? I haven't got the latest numbers in front of me, but the number of healthy under 20s in England who have died of Covid-19 stood, on 19 August, as four.

    Not four thousand.

    Not four hundred.

    Not forty.

    Four.
    Well, what is the overall number of under 20s who have been infected?
    What is the number of other people who have been infected by those u20s?
    What is the number of people among these who then went on to infect other people?
    What is the number of people among these who have suffered significant health damage?
    What is the number of people among these who have suffered the ultimate health damage?

    And, most importantly, which of these numbers is the most relevant when assessing the public health risk?
  • Nigel_ForemainNigel_Foremain Posts: 5,758
    Has anyone seen any evidence of Trump getting any sympathy for having Covid, such as was offered to our own Bullshitter-In-Chief?
  • AlistairAlistair Posts: 17,100
    Grandiose said:
    Bikkie-Potus has a certain snap to it.
  • Philip_ThompsonPhilip_Thompson Posts: 42,466
    MaxPB said:

    The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    Doesn't make sense to me, I'd want the elderly and infirm to benefit from herd immunity.
    That won't happen until there's an under 18 vaccine. So we need another solution first.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 61,901
    edited October 6

    MaxPB said:

    MaxPB said:

    The policy of rolling out a scarce resource (vaccine) to those in most need (the eldery and infirm) seems like the right one to me.

    From each according to his ability, to each according to his need.

    Doesn't make sense to me, I'd want the elderly and infirm to benefit from herd immunity.
    Wouldn't we get there anyway, if younger fitter people are encouraged to mix freely?
    More slowly and with a lot of economic damage in the process. We're storing up a lot of long term issues at the moment with unemployment, problems that will have a large longer term cost than a few old people dying a few months early, to put it bluntly.
    Fair enough. Perhaps they could allow those under 50 to apply, being clear that it's first-come-first-served, which would at least reduce some of the political risk ("we have been clear from the start that healthy under-50s are not a priority group for the treatment").
    There's a large minority (Of all ages) that don't fancy having the vaccine, and certainly don't want to be 'early' in the vaccine queue. That's their right - but means people that wish to get the vaccine asap will have a few less in the queue.
  • Hello,

    Still :)

    Hello old bean.
    I see PB fantasy league is worth looking at again.... after losing to the Toffees, I was thinking everything about footie was going to be a write off this year..... and now 'arry rednapp is tipping us for the league (I think not)!
    I told you Jose Mourinho is awesome, have faith in Jose, he brought back Bale.

    Plus season is a year that ends in one, so 'Arry might not be wrong.

    Am backing Everton in the hope of the curse of Eagles strikes again.
  • OnboardG1OnboardG1 Posts: 409

    Has anyone seen any evidence of Trump getting any sympathy for having Covid, such as was offered to our own Bullshitter-In-Chief?

    Nope.
Sign In or Register to comment.