politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out
The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up nearly 25% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP.
Comments
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Squeaky bum time for the Tories!0
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Better than expected share for Labour. Makes their apparent easing off in Newark all the stranger.0
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Eeek - going to fall between two stools I think. Hard for Lab to talk themselves down.
Tory hold.0 -
LDs to lose their deposit?0
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Nice YouGov.
Swingback to Labour?0 -
LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.
Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).0 -
Suggests Labour should have made more of an effort in Newark.
It could be very tight between Con and UKIP.0 -
It is,if the tories can't win Newark,it's about time the con's moved aside for the new centre right party.RodCrosby said:Squeaky bum time for the Tories!
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In all fairness, YouGov is a clear outlier.
The polls have been all over the shop because of the Euros.
Let's see where we are in a week.0 -
Oh dear
A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".
MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.
He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.
Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".
His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html0 -
Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?0
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Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.kle4 said:LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.
Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).0 -
Well, Maybe.
With Roger Helmer as the new face of UKIP, there could soon be a Tory revival!Tykejohnno said:
It is,if the tories can't win Newark,it's about time the con's moved aside for the new centre right party.RodCrosby said:Squeaky bum time for the Tories!
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Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.0 -
The Tories will want the next poll to show Labour 2nd to confuse the hell out of the anti-Tory vote in Newark.0
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Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.0
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This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.Charles said:Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?
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On topic, both Lab and UKIP odds are probably value, though I think the Tories will still win it. Most of the postal votes will already be in.0
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Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.Charles said:Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?
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That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".
MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.
He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.
Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".
His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html
I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.BobaFett said:
Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.kle4 said:LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.
Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).
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Surely someone who understands FPTP better than us "PB Tories" will point out that it's a great result: losing votes in safe seats (while still holding them) means you must be outperforming in the marginals.AndyJS said:Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.
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Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.Charles said:
Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.Charles said:Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?
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Well if the tories do lose Newark,shapp's should be gone ,always a silver lining. ;-)0
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So, for Labour, as fast as ex Lib-Dems come in through the front door, others leave through the back door and go to UKIP.
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Was there actually a mistake? I was just yanking your chainTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.Charles said:
Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.Charles said:Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?
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Wonder what the Lib Dem bar chart looks like.........0
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Indeed. Best strategy now is for the Labour candidate to declare himself a Derby County fan and be 'caught' by the press pissing into the River Trent.compouter2 said:The Tories will want the next poll to show Labour 2nd to confuse the hell out of the anti-Tory vote in Newark.
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The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.MikeL said:Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20140 -
Alex Salmond’s claim that Scotland is one of the richest countries in the developed world has been challenged in a study by Glasgow University academics which finds it is a middle-ranking economy with high levels of foreign ownership.
http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/29/scotland-wealth-alex-salmond-study?CMP=twt_gu
The domination of non-Scottish firms, particularly in key industries such as North Sea oil, financial services and banking, whisky and salmon, means a significant amount of Scotland’s wealth is exported to the rest of the UK and overseas.0 -
Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?
I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!kle4 said:
That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".
MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.
He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.
Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".
His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html
I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.BobaFett said:
Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.kle4 said:LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.
Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).0 -
Every individual constituency poll ever done shows Con underperforming national polls.Charles said:
Surely someone who understands FPTP better than us "PB Tories" will point out that it's a great result: losing votes in safe seats (while still holding them) means you must be outperforming in the marginals.AndyJS said:Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.
Which is why individual constituency polls are suspect - because they can't underperform everywhere.0 -
Yeah, 25 instead of 24 in the thread headerCharles said:
Was there actually a mistake? I was just yanking your chainTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.Charles said:
Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.Charles said:Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?
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FPT
Richard_Tyndall said:
My prediction
Con:39
UKIP 26
Labour:20
Green:6
LD: 5
Others: 4
Murali_S asked
"You serious or is this a windup?"
I was serious Murali. Not sure why you would think this was a wind up. I have always felt that the Tories would hold Newark - and said so from the very start - but also think that some Labour votes will drift to UKIP if they feel that is the best chance of beating the Tories. Otherwise I would have put Labour considerably higher.
As it happens my prediction was not quite so outlandish as you seemed to think even if I underestimated Labour somewhat.0 -
Have they modified the NEV? I thought it was Lab 31%, Con 29%, UKIP 17%, LD 13%.anotherDave said:
The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.MikeL said:Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#20140 -
It's a by-election the swings in such contests are vastly magnified compared to general elections. Labour should be more worried that they aren't picking up a larger chunk to be honest.AndyJS said:Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.
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Looks like a fairly comfortable Con win in Newark to me.0
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Yes - but Survation had UKIP far too high for the Euros (32 vs actual 27.5) and they have them the highest of any pollster in GE polls.anotherDave said:
The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.MikeL said:Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
So there is a clear pattern.0 -
Rationally it might now make particular sense given Helmer's views (all I know about him is he is controversial apparently, so I'll assume your assessment is correct), but my general feeling is people vote with their guts even if their own sense tells them not to, and I think a reasonable number of Labour votes in Newark who despise the Tories enough, would be willing to vote for a man even more Tory than the Tories if it struck such a major blow against Cameron and emboldened UKIP, whose impact remains largest on the Tories despite inroads to Labour heartlands.foxinsoxuk said:Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?
I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!
I doubt it would move more than, say, 5 points of the vote either way, but that could be enough.
I guess we could see another Eastleigh, only this time UKIP will jokingly blame Labour for splitting the vote.0 -
2 data points is not a pattern.MikeL said:
Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.anotherDave said:
The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.MikeL said:Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
So there is a clear pattern.0 -
I was thinking it'll be a lot closer between the Tories and UKIP with Labour being squeezed. This poll has given hope/impetus for Labour. Tine will tell as ever...Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
Richard_Tyndall said:
My prediction
Con:39
UKIP 26
Labour:20
Green:6
LD: 5
Others: 4
Murali_S asked
"You serious or is this a windup?"
I was serious Murali. Not sure why you would think this was a wind up. I have always felt that the Tories would hold Newark - and said so from the very start - but also think that some Labour votes will drift to UKIP if they feel that is the best chance of beating the Tories. Otherwise I would have put Labour considerably higher.
As it happens my prediction was not quite so outlandish as you seemed to think even if I underestimated Labour somewhat.0 -
I think that gap is just too big to bridge in a week. I would not be surprised to see these numbers being pretty close to the final result.0
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@QT
My book on who Joey Barton punches first:
1/10 Piers Morgan (who wouldn't?!)
2/1 David Willets
3/1 David Dimbleby
6/1 Margaret Curran
20/1 Louise Bours (who?)
50/1 Random audience member
100/1 BBC Geen Room Employee0 -
What difference does it make? Elect a Tory or an ex-Tory. The former is bad, the latter makes the former look bad.....foxinsoxuk said:Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?
I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!
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I stopped having to do the proof-reading over a decade ago...TheScreamingEagles said:
Yeah, 25 instead of 24 in the thread headerCharles said:
Was there actually a mistake? I was just yanking your chainTheScreamingEagles said:
Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.Charles said:
Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...TheScreamingEagles said:
This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.Charles said:Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?
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Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.0
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That's the problem! In Eastleigh Labour fielded exactly the right candidate - a rich metropolitan luvvie - in other words, a complete no-hoper. The guy in Newark is a thoroughly decent local grafter - exactly the sort of candidate that will give Labour enough votes to let in the Tory.murali_s said:
I was thinking it'll be a lot closer between the Tories and UKIP with Labour being squeezed. This poll has given hope/impetus for Labour. Tine will tell as ever...Richard_Tyndall said:FPT
Richard_Tyndall said:
My prediction
Con:39
UKIP 26
Labour:20
Green:6
LD: 5
Others: 4
Murali_S asked
"You serious or is this a windup?"
I was serious Murali. Not sure why you would think this was a wind up. I have always felt that the Tories would hold Newark - and said so from the very start - but also think that some Labour votes will drift to UKIP if they feel that is the best chance of beating the Tories. Otherwise I would have put Labour considerably higher.
As it happens my prediction was not quite so outlandish as you seemed to think even if I underestimated Labour somewhat.0 -
I still think a UKIP win is possible.0
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Yup, looks like Labour is not heading for a 100+ majority next year based on that poll.ToryJim said:
It's a by-election the swings in such contests are vastly magnified compared to general elections. Labour should be more worried that they aren't picking up a larger chunk to be honest.AndyJS said:Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.
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It's not just 2 data points - look back through all of Survation's national polls.anotherDave said:
2 data points is not a pattern.MikeL said:
Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.anotherDave said:
The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.MikeL said:Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
So there is a clear pattern.
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What % of votes are likely to be in ?
I still think my Tory majority 1500 prediction has legs.0 -
Barton - Morgan is the warm up to Froch Grovesfoxinsoxuk said:@QT
My book on who Joey Barton punches first:
1/10 Piers Morgan (who wouldn't?!)
2/1 David Willets
3/1 David Dimbleby
6/1 Margaret Curran
20/1 Louise Bours (who?)
50/1 Random audience member
100/1 BBC Geen Room Employee0 -
What is the Con to Lab swing on these number, BTW?0
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Harming the Conservatives would be a powerful motivation for many Labour supporters.foxinsoxuk said:Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?
I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!kle4 said:
That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".
MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.
He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.
Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".
His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html
I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.BobaFett said:
Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.kle4 said:LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.
Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).
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Joey Barton hasn't even bothered to put a bloody shirt on never mind a tie. Scruffy get!0
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11.3%GIN1138 said:What is the Con to Lab swing on these number, BTW?
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Oh gods, I'm actually agreeing with Piers Morgan at the moment. We'll see if that lasts.0
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That is a very good point. I forget about Farage.SouthamObserver said:Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.
You are right - he would have won.
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Evening all and interesting voxpop on the streets of Newark on the BBC News. Voters questioning what UKIP actually stands for. As for the poor woman who said she trusted Ed Miliband, clearly she has escaped from a locked ward somewhere!0
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My prediction of a large Tory majority is looking dodgy. But my bet I was regretting on a UKIP win is suddenly looking plausible! I prefer to bet smart than lucky, but on this occasion I'll make an exception. Still wouldn't complain with arbing the bet out, not getting that heady from this poll.Pulpstar said:What % of votes are likely to be in ?
I still think my Tory majority 1500 prediction has legs.0 -
I think that they are too intelligent for that, but maybe you are right.Sean_F said:
Harming the Conservatives would be a powerful motivation for many Labour supporters.foxinsoxuk said:Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?
I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!kle4 said:
That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".
MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.
He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.
Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".
His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html
I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.BobaFett said:
Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.kle4 said:LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.
Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).0 -
We hit 400mm of rainfall for the year today in Leamington. Reservoirs are at 95% of capacity. It's going to be a lush, bountiful summer. Damp shadows under heavy trees. With a bit of sun between now and September the blackberries will be historic. England is good.0
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Hmm, if we can get within 9 without trying, perhaps we should have a go...0
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I may need to shorten the odds on Bours....0
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Ukip lady is useless. They need to put up Nige or Suzanne0
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Thanks Rod and TSE.
Nothing too dramatic then?0 -
That Lib Dem 5 still has room to drop.0
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Possibly. Ok, no local connection to the area, but if he's outright admitted he wanted to stand to show UKIP could win a parliamentary seat to demonstrate it was not a wasted vote, and to give the establishment a kicking, and he would then stand somewhere else in 2015, I think it might still have worked and been acceptedBobaFett said:
That is a very good point. I forget about Farage.SouthamObserver said:Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.
You are right - he would have won.
Labour lady not very convincing so far. We need to trust in each other more or something to restore faith or some such? Then why haven't Labour already done better? UKIP lady a bit stuck in outrage mode I think - Piers downplayed them a little, but he was very careful not to be dismissive of UKIP and praised their shaking up of politics, but she's acting like he called all of UKIP a bunch of loonies. Eh, it's been working for Farage thus far I guess, no sense in changin tack.
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I'll be in Heathrow tomorrow. The new terminal looks quite nice (minus the politicians!)0
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Did someone seriously do the old 'I'll move abroad if X wins at the next election' chestnut.0
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Joey lol0
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Joey's right, turnout at the Euros was piss poor. Most people don't give a toss.0
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Barton castigates UKIP for failing to win Westminster seats in a European election. Genius.0
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Barton was doing well until the ugly girls comment.
Dear me.0 -
UKIP lady angry at Piers for speaking when it was her turn, and has since proceded to speak over the other speakers - I love it when QT speakers do that. The outrage at being interrupted, vs no problem with interrupting themselves. She's making me feel sorry for Joey Barton for crying out loud aswell. Even if you think he's saying something stupid, wait for him to get it out before you pounce on him!
I should watch QT more often.0 -
Joey says UKIP the best of a bad bunch and like the least ugly girl in the room!
The philosopher Footballer indeed!0 -
You don't know what the true support numbers are. Survation's last poll before this year's locals was margin of error of the NEV local results.MikeL said:
It's not just 2 data points - look back through all of Survation's national polls.anotherDave said:
2 data points is not a pattern.MikeL said:
Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.anotherDave said:
The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.MikeL said:Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
So there is a clear pattern.
UKIP is where the pollsters divide, there is a high UKIP group, and a low UKIP group.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744
http://survation.com/icm-research-shows-ukip-support-doubling-in-29-days-another-clear-indication-polling-industry-methodology-needs-to-change/
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anotherDave said:
You don't know what the true support numbers are. Survation's last poll before this year's locals was margin of error of the NEV local results.MikeL said:
It's not just 2 data points - look back through all of Survation's national polls.anotherDave said:
2 data points is not a pattern.MikeL said:
Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.anotherDave said:
The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.MikeL said:Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.
Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
So there is a clear pattern.
UKIP is where the pollsters divide, there is a high UKIP group, and a low UKIP group.
http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744
http://survation.com/icm-research-shows-ukip-support-doubling-in-29-days-another-clear-indication-polling-industry-methodology-needs-to-change/
How many people were surveyed in the Survation, any drastic weightings ?
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Embarassingfoxinsoxuk said:Joey says UKIP the best of a bad bunch and like the least ugly girl in the room!
The philosopher Footballer indeed!0 -
GAY WEATHER
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They won't be voting Con. to keep out UKIP. They loathe them both.foxinsoxuk said:I think that they are too intelligent for that, but maybe you are right.
Sean_F said:
Harming the Conservatives would be a powerful motivation for many Labour supporters.foxinsoxuk said:Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?
I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!kle4 said:
That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.TheScreamingEagles said:Oh dear
A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".
MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.
He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.
Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".
His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.
http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html
I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.BobaFett said:
Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.kle4 said:LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.
Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).
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Doesn't quite seem fair for audience members to be challenged by the panel so stridently - even if they ask a patently trolling type of question, they didn't come prepared to debate like the panel members.0
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Bours and Helmer. The face of a new Britain
(Checks passport...)0 -
Nigel - I cringed inwardly when I heard that.nigel4england said:
Embarassingfoxinsoxuk said:Joey says UKIP the best of a bad bunch and like the least ugly girl in the room!
The philosopher Footballer indeed!0 -
Pro immigration stance in the world's airport, in the world's capital.0
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The UKIP is getting on my nerves a bit
Mind you the sanctimonius twat in the audience just made her look good0 -
No he wouldn't. This has always been a clear Tory win no matter who the UKIP candidate was.BobaFett said:
That is a very good point. I forget about Farage.SouthamObserver said:Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.
You are right - he would have won.0 -
Joey not a kipper !0
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I never watch QT now it's just a pub row without the beer.0
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This chap has a point.0
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He is a working class scouser, but he did damn UKIP with faint praise as the least ugly girl in the room.
My money is NOTA.
Lets get onto the world cup, Joey is always good value on his erstwhile betters...Pulpstar said:0 -
My cat would make a better chairman of this group than Dimbleby.0
