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politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

SystemSystem Posts: 12,213
edited May 2014 in General

politicalbetting.com » Blog Archive » The first Newark by-election opinion poll is out

The Tories are ahead in this poll for the Sun by Survation, but down nearly 18% since the general election, but with a strong campaign, I can see either UKIP or Labour winning, the fact that UKIP are up nearly 25% since the General Election, compared to 4.7% that Labour are up since the election, shows the momentum is with UKIP.

Read the full story here


«13

Comments

  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    Squeaky bum time for the Tories!
  • ArtistArtist Posts: 1,893
    Better than expected share for Labour. Makes their apparent easing off in Newark all the stranger.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Eeek - going to fall between two stools I think. Hard for Lab to talk themselves down.

    Tory hold.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    LDs to lose their deposit?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Nice YouGov.

    Swingback to Labour?
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014
    LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.

    Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    Suggests Labour should have made more of an effort in Newark.

    It could be very tight between Con and UKIP.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    RodCrosby said:

    Squeaky bum time for the Tories!

    It is,if the tories can't win Newark,it's about time the con's moved aside for the new centre right party.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    In all fairness, YouGov is a clear outlier.
    The polls have been all over the shop because of the Euros.
    Let's see where we are in a week.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Oh dear

    A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".

    MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.

    He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.

    Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".

    His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    kle4 said:

    LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.

    Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).

    Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Well, Maybe.

    With Roger Helmer as the new face of UKIP, there could soon be a Tory revival!


    Tykejohnno said:

    RodCrosby said:

    Squeaky bum time for the Tories!

    It is,if the tories can't win Newark,it's about time the con's moved aside for the new centre right party.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.
  • compouter2compouter2 Posts: 2,371
    The Tories will want the next poll to show Labour 2nd to confuse the hell out of the anti-Tory vote in Newark.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    BobaFett said:

    In all fairness, YouGov is a clear outlier.
    The polls have been all over the shop because of the Euros.
    Let's see where we are in a week.

    Whats the green score - I regard Greens as the easiest to switch back to Milibandism tbh.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    edited May 2014
    Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Charles said:

    Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?

    This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.
  • david_herdsondavid_herdson Posts: 17,834
    On topic, both Lab and UKIP odds are probably value, though I think the Tories will still win it. Most of the postal votes will already be in.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?

    This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.
    Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh dear

    A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".

    MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.

    He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.

    Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".

    His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html

    That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.

    Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).

    Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.
    I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    AndyJS said:

    Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.

    Surely someone who understands FPTP better than us "PB Tories" will point out that it's a great result: losing votes in safe seats (while still holding them) means you must be outperforming in the marginals.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?

    This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.
    Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...
    Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.
  • TykejohnnoTykejohnno Posts: 7,362
    Well if the tories do lose Newark,shapp's should be gone ,always a silver lining. ;-)
  • AlasdairAlasdair Posts: 72
    So, for Labour, as fast as ex Lib-Dems come in through the front door, others leave through the back door and go to UKIP.
  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?

    This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.
    Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...
    Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.
    Was there actually a mistake? I was just yanking your chain :)
  • FloaterFloater Posts: 14,207
    Wonder what the Lib Dem bar chart looks like.........
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    compouter2 said:

    The Tories will want the next poll to show Labour 2nd to confuse the hell out of the anti-Tory vote in Newark.

    Indeed. Best strategy now is for the Labour candidate to declare himself a Derby County fan and be 'caught' by the press pissing into the River Trent.

  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeL said:

    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.

    The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.

    That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
  • Scott_PScott_P Posts: 51,453
    Alex Salmond’s claim that Scotland is one of the richest countries in the developed world has been challenged in a study by Glasgow University academics which finds it is a middle-ranking economy with high levels of foreign ownership.

    The domination of non-Scottish firms, particularly in key industries such as North Sea oil, financial services and banking, whisky and salmon, means a significant amount of Scotland’s wealth is exported to the rest of the UK and overseas.
    http://www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2014/may/29/scotland-wealth-alex-salmond-study?CMP=twt_gu
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?

    I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!
    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh dear

    A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".

    MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.

    He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.

    Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".

    His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html

    That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.

    Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).

    Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.
    I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    Charles said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.

    Surely someone who understands FPTP better than us "PB Tories" will point out that it's a great result: losing votes in safe seats (while still holding them) means you must be outperforming in the marginals.
    Every individual constituency poll ever done shows Con underperforming national polls.

    Which is why individual constituency polls are suspect - because they can't underperform everywhere.
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?

    This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.
    Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...
    Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.
    Was there actually a mistake? I was just yanking your chain :)
    Yeah, 25 instead of 24 in the thread header
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    FPT

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    My prediction

    Con:39
    UKIP 26
    Labour:20
    Green:6
    LD: 5
    Others: 4

    Murali_S asked

    "You serious or is this a windup?"

    I was serious Murali. Not sure why you would think this was a wind up. I have always felt that the Tories would hold Newark - and said so from the very start - but also think that some Labour votes will drift to UKIP if they feel that is the best chance of beating the Tories. Otherwise I would have put Labour considerably higher.

    As it happens my prediction was not quite so outlandish as you seemed to think even if I underestimated Labour somewhat.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.

    The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.

    That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Have they modified the NEV? I thought it was Lab 31%, Con 29%, UKIP 17%, LD 13%.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    AndyJS said:

    Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.

    It's a by-election the swings in such contests are vastly magnified compared to general elections. Labour should be more worried that they aren't picking up a larger chunk to be honest.
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Looks like a fairly comfortable Con win in Newark to me.
  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    edited May 2014
    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.

    The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.

    That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yes - but Survation had UKIP far too high for the Euros (32 vs actual 27.5) and they have them the highest of any pollster in GE polls.

    So there is a clear pattern.
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    Floater said:

    Wonder what the Lib Dem bar chart looks like.........

    Only the Lib Dems can lose their deposit here??
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?

    I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!

    Rationally it might now make particular sense given Helmer's views (all I know about him is he is controversial apparently, so I'll assume your assessment is correct), but my general feeling is people vote with their guts even if their own sense tells them not to, and I think a reasonable number of Labour votes in Newark who despise the Tories enough, would be willing to vote for a man even more Tory than the Tories if it struck such a major blow against Cameron and emboldened UKIP, whose impact remains largest on the Tories despite inroads to Labour heartlands.

    I doubt it would move more than, say, 5 points of the vote either way, but that could be enough.

    I guess we could see another Eastleigh, only this time UKIP will jokingly blame Labour for splitting the vote.
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeL said:

    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.

    The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.

    That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.

    So there is a clear pattern.
    2 data points is not a pattern.
  • murali_smurali_s Posts: 3,067
    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    My prediction

    Con:39
    UKIP 26
    Labour:20
    Green:6
    LD: 5
    Others: 4

    Murali_S asked

    "You serious or is this a windup?"

    I was serious Murali. Not sure why you would think this was a wind up. I have always felt that the Tories would hold Newark - and said so from the very start - but also think that some Labour votes will drift to UKIP if they feel that is the best chance of beating the Tories. Otherwise I would have put Labour considerably higher.

    As it happens my prediction was not quite so outlandish as you seemed to think even if I underestimated Labour somewhat.

    I was thinking it'll be a lot closer between the Tories and UKIP with Labour being squeezed. This poll has given hope/impetus for Labour. Tine will tell as ever...
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    I think that gap is just too big to bridge in a week. I would not be surprised to see these numbers being pretty close to the final result.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    @QT

    My book on who Joey Barton punches first:

    1/10 Piers Morgan (who wouldn't?!)
    2/1 David Willets
    3/1 David Dimbleby
    6/1 Margaret Curran
    20/1 Louise Bours (who?)
    50/1 Random audience member
    100/1 BBC Geen Room Employee
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,960
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?

    I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!

    What difference does it make? Elect a Tory or an ex-Tory. The former is bad, the latter makes the former look bad.....

  • CharlesCharles Posts: 35,758
    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Charles said:

    Did you really need to add the 0.2 to the 24 increase in UKIP's share...?

    This is PB, we pride ourselves on accuracy.
    Shame you provided precision, not accuracy...
    Oh, I've seen my mistake, I blame fat fingers, corrected it now.
    Was there actually a mistake? I was just yanking your chain :)
    Yeah, 25 instead of 24 in the thread header
    I stopped having to do the proof-reading over a decade ago...
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    murali_s said:

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    FPT

    Richard_Tyndall said:

    My prediction

    Con:39
    UKIP 26
    Labour:20
    Green:6
    LD: 5
    Others: 4

    Murali_S asked

    "You serious or is this a windup?"

    I was serious Murali. Not sure why you would think this was a wind up. I have always felt that the Tories would hold Newark - and said so from the very start - but also think that some Labour votes will drift to UKIP if they feel that is the best chance of beating the Tories. Otherwise I would have put Labour considerably higher.

    As it happens my prediction was not quite so outlandish as you seemed to think even if I underestimated Labour somewhat.

    I was thinking it'll be a lot closer between the Tories and UKIP with Labour being squeezed. This poll has given hope/impetus for Labour. Tine will tell as ever...
    That's the problem! In Eastleigh Labour fielded exactly the right candidate - a rich metropolitan luvvie - in other words, a complete no-hoper. The guy in Newark is a thoroughly decent local grafter - exactly the sort of candidate that will give Labour enough votes to let in the Tory.
  • AndyJSAndyJS Posts: 29,395
    I still think a UKIP win is possible.
  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    ToryJim said:

    AndyJS said:

    Not a very good poll for the Tories, down 18 points on the general election compared to 5 in the national polls.

    It's a by-election the swings in such contests are vastly magnified compared to general elections. Labour should be more worried that they aren't picking up a larger chunk to be honest.

    Yup, looks like Labour is not heading for a 100+ majority next year based on that poll.

  • MikeLMikeL Posts: 7,723
    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.

    The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.

    That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.

    So there is a clear pattern.
    2 data points is not a pattern.
    It's not just 2 data points - look back through all of Survation's national polls.

  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    AndyJS said:

    I still think a UKIP win is possible.

    Numerically possible maybe, I just think the gap is a bit too wide.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    What % of votes are likely to be in ?

    I still think my Tory majority 1500 prediction has legs.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    foxinsoxuk said:

    @QT

    My book on who Joey Barton punches first:

    1/10 Piers Morgan (who wouldn't?!)
    2/1 David Willets
    3/1 David Dimbleby
    6/1 Margaret Curran
    20/1 Louise Bours (who?)
    50/1 Random audience member
    100/1 BBC Geen Room Employee

    Barton - Morgan is the warm up to Froch Groves
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    What is the Con to Lab swing on these number, BTW?
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?

    I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh dear

    A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".

    MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.

    He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.

    Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".

    His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html

    That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.

    Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).

    Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.
    I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.
    Harming the Conservatives would be a powerful motivation for many Labour supporters.

  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Joey Barton hasn't even bothered to put a bloody shirt on never mind a tie. Scruffy get!
  • RodCrosbyRodCrosby Posts: 7,737
    GIN1138 said:

    What is the Con to Lab swing on these number, BTW?

    11.3% Con-Lab
  • TheScreamingEaglesTheScreamingEagles Posts: 119,959
    GIN1138 said:

    What is the Con to Lab swing on these number, BTW?

    11.3%
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    Oh gods, I'm actually agreeing with Piers Morgan at the moment. We'll see if that lasts.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.

    That is a very good point. I forget about Farage.

    You are right - he would have won.

  • EasterrossEasterross Posts: 1,915
    Evening all and interesting voxpop on the streets of Newark on the BBC News. Voters questioning what UKIP actually stands for. As for the poor woman who said she trusted Ed Miliband, clearly she has escaped from a locked ward somewhere!
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    What % of votes are likely to be in ?

    I still think my Tory majority 1500 prediction has legs.

    My prediction of a large Tory majority is looking dodgy. But my bet I was regretting on a UKIP win is suddenly looking plausible! I prefer to bet smart than lucky, but on this occasion I'll make an exception. Still wouldn't complain with arbing the bet out, not getting that heady from this poll.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I think that they are too intelligent for that, but maybe you are right.
    Sean_F said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?

    I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh dear

    A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".

    MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.

    He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.

    Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".

    His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html

    That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.

    Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).

    Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.
    I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.
    Harming the Conservatives would be a powerful motivation for many Labour supporters.

  • SouthamObserverSouthamObserver Posts: 39,668
    We hit 400mm of rainfall for the year today in Leamington. Reservoirs are at 95% of capacity. It's going to be a lush, bountiful summer. Damp shadows under heavy trees. With a bit of sun between now and September the blackberries will be historic. England is good.
  • NickPalmerNickPalmer Posts: 21,564
    Hmm, if we can get within 9 without trying, perhaps we should have a go...
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    I may need to shorten the odds on Bours....
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Ukip lady is useless. They need to put up Nige or Suzanne
  • GIN1138GIN1138 Posts: 22,376
    Thanks Rod and TSE.

    Nothing too dramatic then?
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    That Lib Dem 5 still has room to drop.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014
    BobaFett said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.

    That is a very good point. I forget about Farage.

    You are right - he would have won.

    Possibly. Ok, no local connection to the area, but if he's outright admitted he wanted to stand to show UKIP could win a parliamentary seat to demonstrate it was not a wasted vote, and to give the establishment a kicking, and he would then stand somewhere else in 2015, I think it might still have worked and been accepted

    Labour lady not very convincing so far. We need to trust in each other more or something to restore faith or some such? Then why haven't Labour already done better? UKIP lady a bit stuck in outrage mode I think - Piers downplayed them a little, but he was very careful not to be dismissive of UKIP and praised their shaking up of politics, but she's acting like he called all of UKIP a bunch of loonies. Eh, it's been working for Farage thus far I guess, no sense in changin tack.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    I'll be in Heathrow tomorrow. The new terminal looks quite nice (minus the politicians!)
  • QuincelQuincel Posts: 4,042
    Pulpstar said:

    That Lib Dem 5 still has room to drop.

    They've got no chance of holding the deposit. Anyone disagree with me I'll go for evens any day of the week and twice on Sundays.
  • RobDRobD Posts: 60,030
    edited May 2014
    Did someone seriously do the old 'I'll move abroad if X wins at the next election' chestnut.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Joey lol
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Joey's right, turnout at the Euros was piss poor. Most people don't give a toss.
  • RochdalePioneersRochdalePioneers Posts: 28,960
    Barton castigates UKIP for failing to win Westminster seats in a European election. Genius.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Barton was doing well until the ugly girls comment.

    Dear me.
  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014
    UKIP lady angry at Piers for speaking when it was her turn, and has since proceded to speak over the other speakers - I love it when QT speakers do that. The outrage at being interrupted, vs no problem with interrupting themselves. She's making me feel sorry for Joey Barton for crying out loud aswell. Even if you think he's saying something stupid, wait for him to get it out before you pounce on him!

    I should watch QT more often.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Joey says UKIP the best of a bad bunch and like the least ugly girl in the room!

    The philosopher Footballer indeed!
  • anotherDaveanotherDave Posts: 6,746
    MikeL said:

    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.

    The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.

    That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.

    So there is a clear pattern.
    2 data points is not a pattern.
    It's not just 2 data points - look back through all of Survation's national polls.

    You don't know what the true support numbers are. Survation's last poll before this year's locals was margin of error of the NEV local results.

    UKIP is where the pollsters divide, there is a high UKIP group, and a low UKIP group.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744

    http://survation.com/icm-research-shows-ukip-support-doubling-in-29-days-another-clear-indication-polling-industry-methodology-needs-to-change/
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    anotherDave said:

    MikeL said:

    Certainly a worrying poll for Con though worth remembering that Survation do score UKIP high and Con low.

    Survation GE poll last week was Lab 35, Con 28, UKIP 21 - well out of line with other pollsters.

    The NEV for the locals was: Con 30%, Lab 31%, LD 11%, UKIP 18%.

    That's within margin of error of Survations last poll before the vote: Con 28%, Lab 34%, LD 9%, UKIP 20%.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_next_United_Kingdom_general_election#2014
    Yes - but Survation has UKIP on the high side every time - high for the locals, high for the Euros and the highest of any pollster in GE polls.

    So there is a clear pattern.
    2 data points is not a pattern.
    It's not just 2 data points - look back through all of Survation's national polls.

    You don't know what the true support numbers are. Survation's last poll before this year's locals was margin of error of the NEV local results.

    UKIP is where the pollsters divide, there is a high UKIP group, and a low UKIP group.

    http://ukpollingreport.co.uk/blog/archives/7744

    http://survation.com/icm-research-shows-ukip-support-doubling-in-29-days-another-clear-indication-polling-industry-methodology-needs-to-change/

    How many people were surveyed in the Survation, any drastic weightings ?
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    foxinsoxuk said:

    Joey says UKIP the best of a bad bunch and like the least ugly girl in the room!

    The philosopher Footballer indeed!

    Embarassing
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    GAY WEATHER :D
  • Sean_FSean_F Posts: 37,534
    foxinsoxuk said:

    I think that they are too intelligent for that, but maybe you are right.

    Sean_F said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Would Labour voters really vote for Roger Helmer to kick the Tories? and thereby put in someone who left the Tories because they were not right wing enough?

    I know that politics makes for strange bedfellows, but even so!

    kle4 said:

    TheScreamingEagles said:

    Oh dear

    A LABOUR MP has repeated Gordon Brown's infamous smear on Labour party member Gillian Duffy to AGAIN brand her "a bigoted woman".

    MP for Stockton North Alex Cunningham reignited the highly damaging row for his party with the remark during a discussion at a party fundraiser.

    He was last night accused of belittling her and millions of other Brits' fears over uncontrolled levels of immigration.

    Despite the former PM's grovelling apology to gran Mrs Duffy, Mr Cunningham said: "She was a bigoted woman and that's all there is to it".

    His off the cuff remark was picked up in a recording of the event.

    http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage/news/politics/5658658/mp-brands-duffy-bigoted-woman.html

    That was of course always a problem with the apology - others had defended Brown on the basis that he had not been wrong in his judgement of the woman and so in making that comment, but his making an apology thus undercut those who had defended him on that basis.
    BobaFett said:

    kle4 said:

    LDs doing even worse than I thought, once again plumbing new depths. It will be a struggle once more to retain this deposit.

    Encouraging poll. Enough to give UKIP genuine hope not just a fleeting one, so this could be interesting. Labour would be advised to underplay it. No worries for them about finishing third if UKIP can sneak a win, any concerns would be lost in the panic of the Tories (I don't think they have enough in them to sneak a win themselves).

    Labour would have been better off with a lower score! How do they sort pedal now and get their supporters to lend their votes to Ukip? Tricky.
    I've no experience of campaigning, sadly, but surely it would not be too hard to make plenty of noice but not press too hard with the foot soldiers, leaving the 'so voting UKIP is probably ok to beat the Tories bit' unsaid? Sure, it would get out, but only Tories would care.
    Harming the Conservatives would be a powerful motivation for many Labour supporters.

    They won't be voting Con. to keep out UKIP. They loathe them both.



  • kle4kle4 Posts: 96,578
    edited May 2014
    Doesn't quite seem fair for audience members to be challenged by the panel so stridently - even if they ask a patently trolling type of question, they didn't come prepared to debate like the panel members.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    Bours and Helmer. The face of a new Britain

    (Checks passport...)
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    nigel4england said:

    foxinsoxuk said:

    Joey says UKIP the best of a bad bunch and like the least ugly girl in the room!

    The philosopher Footballer indeed!

    Embarassing
    Nigel - I cringed inwardly when I heard that.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Pro immigration stance in the world's airport, in the world's capital.
  • isamisam Posts: 41,118
    edited May 2014
    The UKIP is getting on my nerves a bit

    Mind you the sanctimonius twat in the audience just made her look good
  • Richard_TyndallRichard_Tyndall Posts: 32,682
    BobaFett said:

    SouthamObserver said:

    Looks like UKIP chose the wrong candidate. Helmer will struggle to cash in on Labour voters' natural proclivity to give the Tories a kicking. He's just too unpleasant. Farage probably could have won.

    That is a very good point. I forget about Farage.

    You are right - he would have won.

    No he wouldn't. This has always been a clear Tory win no matter who the UKIP candidate was.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Pulpstar said:

    GAY WEATHER :D

    Gay weather and ugly girls - classic QT.

    Who does Barton support? I'm guessing Labour but I hope not!!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    Joey not a kipper !
  • ToryJimToryJim Posts: 4,189
    I never watch QT now it's just a pub row without the beer.
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GAY WEATHER :D

    Gay weather and ugly girls - classic QT.

    Who does Barton support? I'm guessing Labour but I hope not!!
    Labour. Nailed on.
  • BobaFettBobaFett Posts: 2,789
    Pulpstar said:

    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GAY WEATHER :D

    Gay weather and ugly girls - classic QT.

    Who does Barton support? I'm guessing Labour but I hope not!!
    Labour. Nailed on.
    *sigh*
  • nigel4englandnigel4england Posts: 4,800
    Pulpstar said:

    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GAY WEATHER :D

    Gay weather and ugly girls - classic QT.

    Who does Barton support? I'm guessing Labour but I hope not!!
    Labour. Nailed on.
    A working class scouser on £80,000 a week, of course he supports Labour!
  • PulpstarPulpstar Posts: 78,406
    This chap has a point.
  • foxinsoxukfoxinsoxuk Posts: 23,548
    He is a working class scouser, but he did damn UKIP with faint praise as the least ugly girl in the room.

    My money is NOTA.

    Lets get onto the world cup, Joey is always good value on his erstwhile betters...
    Pulpstar said:

    BobaFett said:

    Pulpstar said:

    GAY WEATHER :D

    Gay weather and ugly girls - classic QT.

    Who does Barton support? I'm guessing Labour but I hope not!!
    Labour. Nailed on.
  • MikeKMikeK Posts: 9,053
    My cat would make a better chairman of this group than Dimbleby.
This discussion has been closed.