The pursuit of happiness – politicalbetting.com
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The Commons could start a recall process by suspending her could they? If a committee of standards recommends she be suspended for a fortnight and MPs vote for that then the recall process would be triggered wouldn't it?Scott_xP said:
I am aware of that, but there is going to be pressure to go further.SirNorfolkPassmore said:She's not going to get a by-election, though. Withdrawing the whip simply doesn't do that.
They can't compel her to resign her seat, but they can publicly call for it.
Nippy probably has to, and hope she says no.1 -
Like Boris Johnson she doesn't understand the rules?Philip_Thompson said:
Not on public transport.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps she needed a eye test before she could drive?Philip_Thompson said:
On public transport?IanB2 said:
Government advice is very clear that if you have symptoms you should go home and stay home.Sandpit said:
That's the bit that makes no sense.LostPassword said:
I don't know what living arrangements she has in London, but she surely has somewhere she can rest her head.IanB2 said:
Not at all. Travelling with symptoms was truly dumb. Pitching up at work when you know you have symptoms is her serious offence.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you excusing her. ReallyIanB2 said:
If you get a positive result, return home whilst staying away from others as best you can is government advice, is it not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They have no choice.SouthamObserver said:Unbelievable arrogance from that SNP MP. By acting so selfishly, she he has potentially passed the infection on to a number of people and will have caused distress to many more. If she had any sense of honour she would resign. The SNP should clearly suspend her. What are the chances?
She has put all mps and staff in the HOC at risk and all those on her train journey
I was commenting on her trip home.
It’s just that I was looking at the advice on gov.uk, after having filled in my passenger locator form from my hotel room in Germany yesterday, and the advice if you test for the virus wasn’t “go straight to the nearest hospital” but appeared to be “get yourself home staying away from others as best you can”.
Why travel for six hours on a train, when you know you have the virus?
We know she stayed in London on the Monday night, so why not isolate herself there until she's no longer a risk?
And doesn't she have a home in London?
If she'd driven the journey would be fair enough. Its the public transport that is awful - plus the going into Parliament while knowing you personally have symptoms of course.0 -
That sounds like a gratuitous insult to Breville toastie makers everywhere.Scott_xP said:0 -
Anyhoo Margaret Ferrier deserves to be exiled to Middlesbrough or one of the remote Scottish islands for the rest of her life.
That kind of stupidity/arrogance is disgusting, it is like having AIDS and having unprotected sex and not telling your partners that you have AIDS.0 -
As it happens, I put £2 on just to clear a c.£2k liability so I could cash out some stake.Stocky said:
Is it worth a quid?Casino_Royale said:Hillary Clinton has finally hit 1000/1.
Yes, it's a wasted £2 but I want the £2k for other things in October.1 -
Do you mind if I ask how much net profit you've won from that?Casino_Royale said:
As it happens, I put £2 on just to clear a c.£2k liability so I could cash out some stake.Stocky said:
Is it worth a quid?Casino_Royale said:Hillary Clinton has finally hit 1000/1.
Yes, it's a wasted £2 but I want the £2k for other things in October.0 -
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Cummings nor Johnson even had the decency to apologiseSandpit said:1 -
I'd have gone home rather than risk having one family member hospitalised in London and one in Scotland. By taxi.Philip_Thompson said:
Not on public transport.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps she needed a eye test before she could drive?Philip_Thompson said:
On public transport?IanB2 said:
Government advice is very clear that if you have symptoms you should go home and stay home.Sandpit said:
That's the bit that makes no sense.LostPassword said:
I don't know what living arrangements she has in London, but she surely has somewhere she can rest her head.IanB2 said:
Not at all. Travelling with symptoms was truly dumb. Pitching up at work when you know you have symptoms is her serious offence.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you excusing her. ReallyIanB2 said:
If you get a positive result, return home whilst staying away from others as best you can is government advice, is it not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They have no choice.SouthamObserver said:Unbelievable arrogance from that SNP MP. By acting so selfishly, she he has potentially passed the infection on to a number of people and will have caused distress to many more. If she had any sense of honour she would resign. The SNP should clearly suspend her. What are the chances?
She has put all mps and staff in the HOC at risk and all those on her train journey
I was commenting on her trip home.
It’s just that I was looking at the advice on gov.uk, after having filled in my passenger locator form from my hotel room in Germany yesterday, and the advice if you test for the virus wasn’t “go straight to the nearest hospital” but appeared to be “get yourself home staying away from others as best you can”.
Why travel for six hours on a train, when you know you have the virus?
We know she stayed in London on the Monday night, so why not isolate herself there until she's no longer a risk?
And doesn't she have a home in London?
If she'd driven the journey would be fair enough. Its the public transport that is awful - plus the going into Parliament while knowing you personally have symptoms of course.0 -
At least she didn’t say she needed to get into training.Philip_Thompson said:
Not on public transport.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps she needed a eye test before she could drive?Philip_Thompson said:
On public transport?IanB2 said:
Government advice is very clear that if you have symptoms you should go home and stay home.Sandpit said:
That's the bit that makes no sense.LostPassword said:
I don't know what living arrangements she has in London, but she surely has somewhere she can rest her head.IanB2 said:
Not at all. Travelling with symptoms was truly dumb. Pitching up at work when you know you have symptoms is her serious offence.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you excusing her. ReallyIanB2 said:
If you get a positive result, return home whilst staying away from others as best you can is government advice, is it not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They have no choice.SouthamObserver said:Unbelievable arrogance from that SNP MP. By acting so selfishly, she he has potentially passed the infection on to a number of people and will have caused distress to many more. If she had any sense of honour she would resign. The SNP should clearly suspend her. What are the chances?
She has put all mps and staff in the HOC at risk and all those on her train journey
I was commenting on her trip home.
It’s just that I was looking at the advice on gov.uk, after having filled in my passenger locator form from my hotel room in Germany yesterday, and the advice if you test for the virus wasn’t “go straight to the nearest hospital” but appeared to be “get yourself home staying away from others as best you can”.
Why travel for six hours on a train, when you know you have the virus?
We know she stayed in London on the Monday night, so why not isolate herself there until she's no longer a risk?
And doesn't she have a home in London?
If she'd driven the journey would be fair enough. Its the public transport that is awful - plus the going into Parliament while knowing you personally have symptoms of course.0 -
Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=191 -
Is the reason that Liverpool and Arsenal play each other every week now that they are in some kind of Covid secure football bubble?3
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Did either of them go into Parliament with symptoms?OllyT said:
Cummings nor Johnson even had the decency to apologiseSandpit said:
Did either of them take a train following a positive test?1 -
I'm now craving a cheese toastie. Given that I'm currently trying to summon the willpower to lose half-a-stone, this is something of a problem.Sandpit said:
That sounds like a gratuitous insult to Breville toastie makers everywhere.Scott_xP said:
And what did the inhabitants of Middlesbrough and Benbecula do to deserve such a fate?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo Margaret Ferrier deserves to be exiled to Middlesbrough or one of the remote Scottish islands for the rest of her life.
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They can only suspend an MP for breaching the rules of Parliament, or the Code of Conduct (which applies only to public and not private life). You could have some argument over whether the fact it was travel to London makes it public rather than private life - and arguably the Vaz case makes that easier.Philip_Thompson said:
The Commons could start a recall process by suspending her could they? If a committee of standards recommends she be suspended for a fortnight and MPs vote for that then the recall process would be triggered wouldn't it?Scott_xP said:
I am aware of that, but there is going to be pressure to go further.SirNorfolkPassmore said:She's not going to get a by-election, though. Withdrawing the whip simply doesn't do that.
They can't compel her to resign her seat, but they can publicly call for it.
Nippy probably has to, and hope she says no.
It's not impossible, although it has no bearing on Sturgeon's decision - she could be suspended from the Commons or not regardless of whether she has the whip.0 -
Oh dear. Not good for Sturgeon. Never mind.Scott_xP said:1 -
Does Downing Street count as Parliament?Philip_Thompson said:
Did either of them go into Parliament with symptoms?OllyT said:
Cummings nor Johnson even had the decency to apologiseSandpit said:
Did either of them take a train following a positive test?
If so, the answer to question 1 is yes.0 -
The people of Middlesbrough deserve it for being smoggies and the people of Benbecula* are used to hardship as they live in a remote part of the world, they are used to it.Black_Rook said:
I'm now craving a cheese toastie. Given that I'm currently trying to summon the willpower to lose half-a-stone, this is something of a problem.Sandpit said:
That sounds like a gratuitous insult to Breville toastie makers everywhere.Scott_xP said:
And what did the inhabitants of Middlesbrough and Benbecula do to deserve such a fate?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo Margaret Ferrier deserves to be exiled to Middlesbrough or one of the remote Scottish islands for the rest of her life.
*If it is the island I think it is.0 -
Can't quite put my finger on why certain GOP senators are supporting Schumer's bill
https://twitter.com/Politics_Polls/status/1311705404737490945
Oh.
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Hard not to crack a smile at this one:
Publisher accidentally prints thousands of copies of an early draft version of book called 'Word Perfect' by lexicographer Susie Dent, full of spelling and grammatical errors.
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/10/01/countdowns-susie-dent-sick-discovering-word-perfect-book-riddled/
The publisher won't be smiling though, they're having to reprint them with the correct version, and sent out replacements to everyone who's bought it.
Everyone else is rushing out to try and find the 'wrong' version, because that's the one that will be worth a few quid on eBay in a decade's time!1 -
4.7 million people in Harris County with one station between them. What a disgrace.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=190 -
On topic, I do believe we should shift away from banning social interactions towards getting people to think about what interactions are important to them and cut out those that aren't. I would favour a campaign on the lines of:
Cherish the moments with the people that matter to you
In these strange times it's so important to share a moment with the people that matter to us. Maybe it's your parents, your grown up children, a neighbour, an old friend... Do do take the time to see them if you can do so safely. Cherish their company.
But please help stop the spread by cutting out unnecessary gatherings or with larger groups. No-one needs to go to a party.3 -
It's really Mid Uist.TheScreamingEagles said:
The people of Middlesbrough deserve it for being smoggies and the people of Benbecula* are used to hardship as they live in a remote part of the world, they are used to it.Black_Rook said:
I'm now craving a cheese toastie. Given that I'm currently trying to summon the willpower to lose half-a-stone, this is something of a problem.Sandpit said:
That sounds like a gratuitous insult to Breville toastie makers everywhere.Scott_xP said:
And what did the inhabitants of Middlesbrough and Benbecula do to deserve such a fate?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo Margaret Ferrier deserves to be exiled to Middlesbrough or one of the remote Scottish islands for the rest of her life.
*If it is the island I think it is.0 -
That is so obviously targetted at Houston that I do wonder if it may be counterproductive.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=190 -
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Thanks, that's the one I was thinking about.IshmaelZ said:
It's really Mid Uist.TheScreamingEagles said:
The people of Middlesbrough deserve it for being smoggies and the people of Benbecula* are used to hardship as they live in a remote part of the world, they are used to it.Black_Rook said:
I'm now craving a cheese toastie. Given that I'm currently trying to summon the willpower to lose half-a-stone, this is something of a problem.Sandpit said:
That sounds like a gratuitous insult to Breville toastie makers everywhere.Scott_xP said:
And what did the inhabitants of Middlesbrough and Benbecula do to deserve such a fate?TheScreamingEagles said:Anyhoo Margaret Ferrier deserves to be exiled to Middlesbrough or one of the remote Scottish islands for the rest of her life.
*If it is the island I think it is.0 -
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.1 -
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:0 -
The astonishing thing about that poll is that Starmer is going precisely nowhere.Scott_xP said:
The government is not fit for purpose. And neither is the opposition.
There is a massive swathe of support waiting for somebody to scoop it up.
And the redundancies haven't really started yet.0 -
Gosh - such ignorance - and on this site.ydoethur said:
Does Downing Street count as Parliament?Philip_Thompson said:
Did either of them go into Parliament with symptoms?OllyT said:
Cummings nor Johnson even had the decency to apologiseSandpit said:
Did either of them take a train following a positive test?
If so, the answer to question 1 is yes.0 -
PT dancing on a pin head as usualydoethur said:
Does Downing Street count as Parliament?Philip_Thompson said:
Did either of them go into Parliament with symptoms?OllyT said:
Cummings nor Johnson even had the decency to apologiseSandpit said:
Did either of them take a train following a positive test?
If so, the answer to question 1 is yes.0 -
Most of the value gone though.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
Alaska at 11/2 still worth a look I think.1 -
The icing on the cake would be if she was one of Corbyn's dinner guests.Alistair said:
Absolutely. Like you I simply don't under stand how she ended up making the decisions she did.Malmesbury said:
I am not being sarcastic - understanding is the first step to fix a problem.Alistair said:
Yes I desperatly want to know her thought processMalmesbury said:
I want to know her thought process. It might prove valuable to understand the mentality of others, who have done or will do similar things.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Please do not include me in that commentMexicanpete said:
That is fair enough. I agree with your comment re: Cummings. I find it tiresome how some of the more excitable Tories on here seem to think Ms. Ferrier's action makes what Cummings did OK.Theuniondivvie said:
But not what BJ did to Dom presumably.Mexicanpete said:
Like Cummings this is volume turned up to eleven serious.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV commenting on Margaret Ferrier SNP MP said it was shocking and extraordinary that she traveled to Westminster with symptoms and then unbelievable travelled back to Scotland on the train having had a positive test
They said there will be serious repercussions in Parliament and the SNP tonight
And to be fair, this is worse than Cummings idiotic escapade
Nippy has to do to Ferrier what she did to Calderwood.
The SNP haven't been slow in suspending other elected members for lesser offences so they should get it done now (as many SNP supporters are saying on twitter).
Cummings should have gone and I have said that ever since the breach
But this breach is beyond believable
- She had a positive test.
- At that point I would be trying to work out how not meet anyone for 10-14 days.
- Definitely cancel anything like an appointment/meeting
- Probably text spamming anyone I'd met in the last week or 2...
We have a problem with people being selfish about COVID risks. Find out why.....
If this was a person on the poverty line who couldn't eat if they didn't work I would understand it, but not an MP.0 -
Two comments on unrelated themes:
If MPs want to break the rules they should remember the rules about not being found out. If you feel ill and want to travel by train, don't have a test beforehand, don't say to anyone that you have started on symptoms until after the journey is over, and if possible just say nothing to anyone. MPs have stopped understanding the value of shutting up.
On another topic: Is it possible that the EU Commission in sending the letter about the 'illegal' Bill but not breaking off talks is actually saying that a deal is essential to them, as it (obviously) is to us? Therefore, whatever the huffing and puffing there will be a deal.1 -
Cummings returned to Downing Street, his place of work, when he was supposed to be isolating.Philip_Thompson said:
Did either of them go into Parliament with symptoms?OllyT said:
Cummings nor Johnson even had the decency to apologiseSandpit said:
Did either of them take a train following a positive test?1 -
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.0 -
Maybe she failed the eye test and thought it was a car.Philip_Thompson said:
Not on public transport.TheScreamingEagles said:
Perhaps she needed a eye test before she could drive?Philip_Thompson said:
On public transport?IanB2 said:
Government advice is very clear that if you have symptoms you should go home and stay home.Sandpit said:
That's the bit that makes no sense.LostPassword said:
I don't know what living arrangements she has in London, but she surely has somewhere she can rest her head.IanB2 said:
Not at all. Travelling with symptoms was truly dumb. Pitching up at work when you know you have symptoms is her serious offence.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Are you excusing her. ReallyIanB2 said:
If you get a positive result, return home whilst staying away from others as best you can is government advice, is it not?Big_G_NorthWales said:
They have no choice.SouthamObserver said:Unbelievable arrogance from that SNP MP. By acting so selfishly, she he has potentially passed the infection on to a number of people and will have caused distress to many more. If she had any sense of honour she would resign. The SNP should clearly suspend her. What are the chances?
She has put all mps and staff in the HOC at risk and all those on her train journey
I was commenting on her trip home.
It’s just that I was looking at the advice on gov.uk, after having filled in my passenger locator form from my hotel room in Germany yesterday, and the advice if you test for the virus wasn’t “go straight to the nearest hospital” but appeared to be “get yourself home staying away from others as best you can”.
Why travel for six hours on a train, when you know you have the virus?
We know she stayed in London on the Monday night, so why not isolate herself there until she's no longer a risk?
And doesn't she have a home in London?
If she'd driven the journey would be fair enough. Its the public transport that is awful - plus the going into Parliament while knowing you personally have symptoms of course.0 -
Along with Stanley Johnson, who'd turned up brandishing a bottle of Lambrini he'd just purchased at the corner shop.Mexicanpete said:
The icing on the cake would be if she was one of Corbyn's dinner guests.Alistair said:
Absolutely. Like you I simply don't under stand how she ended up making the decisions she did.Malmesbury said:
I am not being sarcastic - understanding is the first step to fix a problem.Alistair said:
Yes I desperatly want to know her thought processMalmesbury said:
I want to know her thought process. It might prove valuable to understand the mentality of others, who have done or will do similar things.Big_G_NorthWales said:
Please do not include me in that commentMexicanpete said:
That is fair enough. I agree with your comment re: Cummings. I find it tiresome how some of the more excitable Tories on here seem to think Ms. Ferrier's action makes what Cummings did OK.Theuniondivvie said:
But not what BJ did to Dom presumably.Mexicanpete said:
Like Cummings this is volume turned up to eleven serious.Big_G_NorthWales said:ITV commenting on Margaret Ferrier SNP MP said it was shocking and extraordinary that she traveled to Westminster with symptoms and then unbelievable travelled back to Scotland on the train having had a positive test
They said there will be serious repercussions in Parliament and the SNP tonight
And to be fair, this is worse than Cummings idiotic escapade
Nippy has to do to Ferrier what she did to Calderwood.
The SNP haven't been slow in suspending other elected members for lesser offences so they should get it done now (as many SNP supporters are saying on twitter).
Cummings should have gone and I have said that ever since the breach
But this breach is beyond believable
- She had a positive test.
- At that point I would be trying to work out how not meet anyone for 10-14 days.
- Definitely cancel anything like an appointment/meeting
- Probably text spamming anyone I'd met in the last week or 2...
We have a problem with people being selfish about COVID risks. Find out why.....
If this was a person on the poverty line who couldn't eat if they didn't work I would understand it, but not an MP.0 -
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.0 -
Keir Starmer thinks the government is so great they should have another six months of Ministerial ability to create laws without going to Parliament for approval.contrarian said:
The astonishing thing about that poll is that Starmer is going precisely nowhere.Scott_xP said:
The government is not fit for purpose. And neither is the opposition.
There is a massive swathe of support waiting for somebody to scoop it up.
And the redundancies haven't really started yet.1 -
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.0 -
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.0 -
I think the value in a Texas flip is on the EV spreads.Casino_Royale said:
Most of the value gone though.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
Alaska at 11/2 still worth a look I think.
I note Spreadex have shifted their Trump EV market down again, now 224-232.
I am not topping up though as pretty comfortable with my position.0 -
Which arguably was much more serious - notwithstanding comments upthread - because there wasn’t the regime for maintaining distance in place that’s been put into Parliament.noneoftheabove said:
Cummings returned to Downing Street, his place of work, when he was supposed to be isolating.Philip_Thompson said:
Did either of them go into Parliament with symptoms?OllyT said:
Cummings nor Johnson even had the decency to apologiseSandpit said:
Did either of them take a train following a positive test?0 -
Far, far too early to worry/exultCasino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.
The world is going to change multiple times by 2024. A poll now is about as useful and relevant as a long term weather forecast in November 19390 -
They’ll find nothing. Police Scotland always find nothing. Heck, they can’t even find literal car crashes.Scott_xP said:2 -
Isn't the problem that Ferrier had symptoms, had a test, but then the symptoms disappeared so she presumably thought it was a false alarm and she'd just had a cold? That may be where the public education messages are needed.algarkirk said:Two comments on unrelated themes:
If MPs want to break the rules they should remember the rules about not being found out. If you feel ill and want to travel by train, don't have a test beforehand, don't say to anyone that you have started on symptoms until after the journey is over, and if possible just say nothing to anyone. MPs have stopped understanding the value of shutting up.
On another topic: Is it possible that the EU Commission in sending the letter about the 'illegal' Bill but not breaking off talks is actually saying that a deal is essential to them, as it (obviously) is to us? Therefore, whatever the huffing and puffing there will be a deal.0 -
A vaccine and a successful Brexit could lead to another GE win for this PM too. Though if its not this PM, I have 5000 reasons to want it to be his Chancellor instead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.1 -
Needless to say, an awful lot can happen between now and 2024. Though FWIW Starmer wouldn't, presumably, relish being PM if this also means having to be propped up by the SNP. The only way he'd be able to get anything done at all in England would be by using Scottish separatist votes to do it. This would not necessarily be advantageous to the long-term health of his party.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.0 -
Blimey. Sounds like you somewhat overdid EOTHO it it made you five grand.Philip_Thompson said:
A vaccine and a successful Brexit could lead to another GE win for this PM too. Though if its not this PM, I have 5000 reasons to want it to be his Chancellor instead.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.1 -
I don't think so. By next summer, some NHS waiting lists will be hitting 2 years. That's not what Leavers voted for.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.0 -
Its funny. Philip Davies MP was much more hostile to Hancock than most Labour MPs in the commons tonight. Brutal.Philip_Thompson said:
Keir Starmer thinks the government is so great they should have another six months of Ministerial ability to create laws without going to Parliament for approval.contrarian said:
The astonishing thing about that poll is that Starmer is going precisely nowhere.Scott_xP said:
The government is not fit for purpose. And neither is the opposition.
There is a massive swathe of support waiting for somebody to scoop it up.
And the redundancies haven't really started yet.0 -
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.0 -
Extenuating circumstances for the waiting lists though.Foxy said:
I don't think so. By next summer, some NHS waiting lists will be hitting 2 years. That's not what Leavers voted for.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.0 -
Absolutely agree. However, an alternative view is that the stench of decay that permeates this government, after less than a year, is terminal. Even if the holy trinity of vaccine, economic boom and new leader come to pass, it wouldn't be before 2022 I'd guess. By then, I suspect too many bridges will have been burnt for a successful leader to emerge from the ashes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.1 -
-
It used to be a Democrat stronghold, would be nice for them to win it back, a bit like Labour if they become the majority party in Scotland again.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.0 -
40 new hospitals, £350 million per week.TheScreamingEagles said:
Extenuating circumstances for the waiting lists though.Foxy said:
I don't think so. By next summer, some NHS waiting lists will be hitting 2 years. That's not what Leavers voted for.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.
The NHS is political catnip.0 -
I'm of the view that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them and boy has this government gone out of its way to lose the next election.Northern_Al said:
Absolutely agree. However, an alternative view is that the stench of decay that permeates this government, after less than a year, is terminal. Even if the holy trinity of vaccine, economic boom and new leader come to pass, it wouldn't be before 2022 I'd guess. By then, I suspect too many bridges will have been burnt for a successful leader to emerge from the ashes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.3 -
Trump only +1 on last poll there. Thanks for the heads up.Casino_Royale said:
Most of the value gone though.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
Alaska at 11/2 still worth a look I think.0 -
Nah, all those states are going to Biden too.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.0 -
It was a Democratic stronghold in the days when the Dems were racist gun nuts pining for the Confedaracy.TheScreamingEagles said:
It used to be a Democrat stronghold, would be nice for them to win it back, a bit like Labour if they become the majority party in Scotland again.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
Now those have shifted to the Republicans (ironic, given it was a Republican government crushed the Confedaracy) Texas will be safely Republican until either African Americans and Hispanics are a majority, or the Republicans do something totally crazy like elect a senile lunatic with bad hair as their...ah.0 -
It might actually make the Electoral College position worse for the Democrats. In efficiency terms, a state where a "par" performance is a 7% win is better than one where the par performance is a 15% win.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
Okay, so in elections where you lose the national popular vote by 8%, you lose that state. But who cares? You've lost the election anyway.
States that are tantalisingly out of reach in close elections are the best kind in terms of electoral vote advantage.
It's only if we get to the point (which we may) where Texas might go Democrat in a close election that it becomes a problem for the GOP (although of course they have other worries like it electing Democrat Senators, which would be annoying for them).0 -
It isn't infantile at all, since there's no reason that doing better in Texas would cause hurt in the Midwest. Actually this year the Democrats are doing better in the Midwest and Texas, and relatively worse in California - which is the absolute sweet spot for them to be at.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.
Flipping Texas and making Texas a swing state makes a massive difference to the Electoral College . . . plus of course even if they don't win it, by making it a swing state then it puts the GOP on the back foot where they need to move heaven and earth to keep Texas in their column as they're screwed if they lose it.0 -
In this election, perhaps, but in terms of whether the Electoral College is biased one way or another what matters is which side would win the state with equal national popular votes.Foxy said:
Nah, all those states are going to Biden too.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.0 -
Trumptons running scared.Philip_Thompson said:
4.7 million people in Harris County with one station between them. What a disgrace.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
1 -
Evening all
I'm sure the CNBC/Change Research poll has got plenty of attention on here. Biden leads 54-41.
The poll is 925 Likely voters with an MoE of 3.22%.
To be fair, they are a C- pollster according to Fivethirtyeight (the same ranking as Trafalgar) with an in-built Democrat bias of 1.1 so one bucket of salt, please, waiter.0 -
Watching the Tottenham match, the only way defenders can prevent penalties under the new handball rules is to chop off their own arms.0
-
I think we're agreeing, and I think Starmer does too. Hence his stance: bide your time, be seen as a safe pair of hands and PM material, don't scare the horses with policies yet, let the government fall apart under the weight of its own contradictions. This has happened often in the past, and the double whammy of Covid and Brexit effects makes this government more susceptible to disintegration than any other postwar government (in my opinion).TheScreamingEagles said:
I'm of the view that oppositions don't win elections, governments lose them and boy has this government gone out of its way to lose the next election.Northern_Al said:
Absolutely agree. However, an alternative view is that the stench of decay that permeates this government, after less than a year, is terminal. Even if the holy trinity of vaccine, economic boom and new leader come to pass, it wouldn't be before 2022 I'd guess. By then, I suspect too many bridges will have been burnt for a successful leader to emerge from the ashes.TheScreamingEagles said:
Still a long way to go, a successful vaccine rollout between now and 2024, leading to a booming economy, and a new Tory leader means the next GE may well still be up for grabs.Casino_Royale said:
We're on course for a Labour minority government right now.TheScreamingEagles said:
Sir Keir is approaching is Dave v. Ed leads in this the best PM ratings in relation to the VIScott_xP said:
And, we haven't even got to 2021 yet.0 -
Over the last decade, Texas has been the fastest growing state by population, and 90% of the growth is Hispanics, who break at least 2:1 Democrat.ydoethur said:
It was a Democratic stronghold in the days when the Dems were racist gun nuts pining for the Confedaracy.TheScreamingEagles said:
It used to be a Democrat stronghold, would be nice for them to win it back, a bit like Labour if they become the majority party in Scotland again.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
Now those have shifted to the Republicans (ironic, given it was a Republican government crushed the Confedaracy) Texas will be safely Republican until either African Americans and Hispanics are a majority, or the Republicans do something totally crazy like elect a senile lunatic with bad hair as their...ah.1 -
As for the Democrats helping themselves in the Senate I maintain that if they win the Senate and the White House this year the first thing they should work on next year is Statehood for New Columbia (aka DC) and Puerto Rico.1
-
The rules are fine, its an absurd interpretation of what an "unnatural position" for the arms that is the issue.Anabobazina said:Watching the Tottenham match, the only way defenders can prevent penalties under the new handball rules is to chop off their own arms.
Holding your arms behind your back is unnatural, having them by your side is not.0 -
With that MoE it could as easily be 57/38 as 51/44 😛stodge said:Evening all
I'm sure the CNBC/Change Research poll has got plenty of attention on here. Biden leads 54-41.
The poll is 925 Likely voters with an MoE of 3.22%.
To be fair, they are a C- pollster according to Fivethirtyeight (the same ranking as Trafalgar) with an in-built Democrat bias of 1.1 so one bucket of salt, please, waiter.1 -
Yes. Which is why it will flip again eventually.Foxy said:
Over the last decade, Texas has been the fastest growing state by population, and 90% of the growth is Hispanics, who break at least 2:1 Democrat.ydoethur said:
It was a Democratic stronghold in the days when the Dems were racist gun nuts pining for the Confedaracy.TheScreamingEagles said:
It used to be a Democrat stronghold, would be nice for them to win it back, a bit like Labour if they become the majority party in Scotland again.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
Now those have shifted to the Republicans (ironic, given it was a Republican government crushed the Confedaracy) Texas will be safely Republican until either African Americans and Hispanics are a majority, or the Republicans do something totally crazy like elect a senile lunatic with bad hair as their...ah.
I would be surprised if it was this time, or at least I would have been astonished until a few days ago. I don’t think Trump’s tax affairs will play well there. But equally, if he doesn’t hold TSE will be on about dockaide hookers again.0 -
So that's one drop-off point in Harris County (population 4,700,000).Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
0 -
I agree with dropping the intention aspect of the handball rule, as requires mindreading. Better to decide on whether the defender gained an advantage by the handball.Philip_Thompson said:
The rules are fine, its an absurd interpretation of what an "unnatural position" for the arms that is the issue.Anabobazina said:Watching the Tottenham match, the only way defenders can prevent penalties under the new handball rules is to chop off their own arms.
Holding your arms behind your back is unnatural, having them by your side is not.0 -
It would be nice for Labour to win back Grimsby, never mind Scotland. A Tory MP in Grimsby? FFSTheScreamingEagles said:
It used to be a Democrat stronghold, would be nice for them to win it back, a bit like Labour if they become the majority party in Scotland again.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.0 -
Yes. I did say it would be a big win if the votes were shifted from California. But that's the crucial contingency. And, over the last few election cycles, unfortunately the change has been against the Democrats in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
It isn't infantile at all, since there's no reason that doing better in Texas would cause hurt in the Midwest. Actually this year the Democrats are doing better in the Midwest and Texas, and relatively worse in California - which is the absolute sweet spot for them to be at.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.
Flipping Texas and making Texas a swing state makes a massive difference to the Electoral College . . . plus of course even if they don't win it, by making it a swing state then it puts the GOP on the back foot where they need to move heaven and earth to keep Texas in their column as they're screwed if they lose it.
If they exchange four more states in the Mid-West for Texas then they're another six senators behind. A par result in the Senate would almost give the Republicans enough Senators to convict any Democrat President elected by California-Texas-New York.
The Democrats would be beyond screwed.0 -
And Leigh. Leigh!Northern_Al said:
It would be nice for Labour to win back Grimsby, never mind Scotland. A Tory MP in Grimsby? FFSTheScreamingEagles said:
It used to be a Democrat stronghold, would be nice for them to win it back, a bit like Labour if they become the majority party in Scotland again.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.0 -
It is well known that the South was Democrat, but it's often forgotten just how Democrat. It's not like it flipped from 55-45 one way to 45-55 the other... Roosevelt twice picked up over 98% (yes, 98%) of the vote in South Carolina and Texas was getting on for 90% Democrat. His period was the peak of it, but even losing Democrat presidential candidates were racking up ridiculous margins.ydoethur said:
It was a Democratic stronghold in the days when the Dems were racist gun nuts pining for the Confedaracy.TheScreamingEagles said:
It used to be a Democrat stronghold, would be nice for them to win it back, a bit like Labour if they become the majority party in Scotland again.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
To put South Carolina in Roosevelt's time in context, it's like Labour in Bootle in a landslide year, where the Tory candidate had been caught having sex with a labrador on the High Street just before polling day, and everyone else had failed to fill in their nomination form correctly. And then some.0 -
At that price it's a bet to nothing but I'd need to see another couple of polls - that said, I've put it in the TCTC column.Casino_Royale said:
Most of the value gone though.
Alaska at 11/2 still worth a look I think.
Ditto South Carolina - I'm not convinced but the odd poll puts the state very much in play.
Polling in Iowa looks very tight as well though a poll last week put Trump back in the lead by three and five with leaners:
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_IA_Senate_week2.pdf
If I was looking at a long-shot state to flip to Biden I'd choose Louisiana. The last polling in early September had Trump up by six but that was from a state he won by twenty last time. Not worth your mortgage but a couple of quid at what I'm sure would be a big price.0 -
-
Yeah, but Biden is well ahead in the polls in those 4 Midwest states. It is not a game of swapsies, but of related contingencies. A good national performance in the PV leverages the EV in Bidens direction too.LostPassword said:
Yes. I did say it would be a big win if the votes were shifted from California. But that's the crucial contingency. And, over the last few election cycles, unfortunately the change has been against the Democrats in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
It isn't infantile at all, since there's no reason that doing better in Texas would cause hurt in the Midwest. Actually this year the Democrats are doing better in the Midwest and Texas, and relatively worse in California - which is the absolute sweet spot for them to be at.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.
Flipping Texas and making Texas a swing state makes a massive difference to the Electoral College . . . plus of course even if they don't win it, by making it a swing state then it puts the GOP on the back foot where they need to move heaven and earth to keep Texas in their column as they're screwed if they lose it.
If they exchange four more states in the Mid-West for Texas then they're another six senators behind. A par result in the Senate would almost give the Republicans enough Senators to convict any Democrat President elected by California-Texas-New York.
The Democrats would be beyond screwed.
Trump may hold Florida though, IMO.1 -
But there's no sign of a direct Mid-West v Texas swing. In fact this time we're seeing a greater than Uniform National Swing to the Democrats in both the Mid-West and Texas are we not?LostPassword said:
Yes. I did say it would be a big win if the votes were shifted from California. But that's the crucial contingency. And, over the last few election cycles, unfortunately the change has been against the Democrats in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
It isn't infantile at all, since there's no reason that doing better in Texas would cause hurt in the Midwest. Actually this year the Democrats are doing better in the Midwest and Texas, and relatively worse in California - which is the absolute sweet spot for them to be at.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.
Flipping Texas and making Texas a swing state makes a massive difference to the Electoral College . . . plus of course even if they don't win it, by making it a swing state then it puts the GOP on the back foot where they need to move heaven and earth to keep Texas in their column as they're screwed if they lose it.
If they exchange four more states in the Mid-West for Texas then they're another six senators behind. A par result in the Senate would almost give the Republicans enough Senators to convict any Democrat President elected by California-Texas-New York.
The Democrats would be beyond screwed.
Last time Texas was lost by 9% with a 2% national victory so on UNS it should require >11% to make Texas swing. Instead it looks like 8% will be sufficient, which continues a trend that has been going on for a long time. In another decade at this rate crossover will be reached.0 -
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Arkansas too. It hasn't been polled since June, and was 45 Biden Trump 47, and if anything the movement in the polls has been in Bidens direction too.stodge said:
At that price it's a bet to nothing but I'd need to see another couple of polls - that said, I've put it in the TCTC column.Casino_Royale said:
Most of the value gone though.
Alaska at 11/2 still worth a look I think.
Ditto South Carolina - I'm not convinced but the odd poll puts the state very much in play.
Polling in Iowa looks very tight as well though a poll last week put Trump back in the lead by three and five with leaners:
https://filesforprogress.org/memos/2020-senate-project/week-2/dfp_psp_IA_Senate_week2.pdf
If I was looking at a long-shot state to flip to Biden I'd choose Louisiana. The last polling in early September had Trump up by six but that was from a state he won by twenty last time. Not worth your mortgage but a couple of quid at what I'm sure would be a big price.
Biden 12 on BFx at present.0 -
In terms of any bias in the Electoral College it is a case of swapsies. Whether Biden wins a landslide this time has no bearing on that.Foxy said:
Yeah, but Biden is well ahead in the polls in those 4 Midwest states. It is not a game of swapsies, but of related contingencies. A good national performance in the PV leverages the EV in Bidens direction too.LostPassword said:
Yes. I did say it would be a big win if the votes were shifted from California. But that's the crucial contingency. And, over the last few election cycles, unfortunately the change has been against the Democrats in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
It isn't infantile at all, since there's no reason that doing better in Texas would cause hurt in the Midwest. Actually this year the Democrats are doing better in the Midwest and Texas, and relatively worse in California - which is the absolute sweet spot for them to be at.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.
Flipping Texas and making Texas a swing state makes a massive difference to the Electoral College . . . plus of course even if they don't win it, by making it a swing state then it puts the GOP on the back foot where they need to move heaven and earth to keep Texas in their column as they're screwed if they lose it.
If they exchange four more states in the Mid-West for Texas then they're another six senators behind. A par result in the Senate would almost give the Republicans enough Senators to convict any Democrat President elected by California-Texas-New York.
The Democrats would be beyond screwed.
Trump may hold Florida though, IMO.
See, for example:
https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cook_Partisan_Voting_Index0 -
The point is that Texas has been trending to the Democrats for a decade now. The delta between the Texas margin and the national margin has been shrinking for a long time.SirNorfolkPassmore said:
It might actually make the Electoral College position worse for the Democrats. In efficiency terms, a state where a "par" performance is a 7% win is better than one where the par performance is a 15% win.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
Okay, so in elections where you lose the national popular vote by 8%, you lose that state. But who cares? You've lost the election anyway.
States that are tantalisingly out of reach in close elections are the best kind in terms of electoral vote advantage.
It's only if we get to the point (which we may) where Texas might go Democrat in a close election that it becomes a problem for the GOP (although of course they have other worries like it electing Democrat Senators, which would be annoying for them).
2000 it was ~23% (albeit Texas was Bush's home state)
2004 it was ~21%
2008 it was ~19%
2012 it was ~20%
2016 it was ~11%
Currently its polling about ~8%
Its shrank by more than half in a decade. If it continues at this rate by 2024 or 2028 it will be a genuinely tight swing state at a tight national election.0 -
My assumption is that Biden is outperforming the long-term trend in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
But there's no sign of a direct Mid-West v Texas swing. In fact this time we're seeing a greater than Uniform National Swing to the Democrats in both the Mid-West and Texas are we not?LostPassword said:
Yes. I did say it would be a big win if the votes were shifted from California. But that's the crucial contingency. And, over the last few election cycles, unfortunately the change has been against the Democrats in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
It isn't infantile at all, since there's no reason that doing better in Texas would cause hurt in the Midwest. Actually this year the Democrats are doing better in the Midwest and Texas, and relatively worse in California - which is the absolute sweet spot for them to be at.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.
Flipping Texas and making Texas a swing state makes a massive difference to the Electoral College . . . plus of course even if they don't win it, by making it a swing state then it puts the GOP on the back foot where they need to move heaven and earth to keep Texas in their column as they're screwed if they lose it.
If they exchange four more states in the Mid-West for Texas then they're another six senators behind. A par result in the Senate would almost give the Republicans enough Senators to convict any Democrat President elected by California-Texas-New York.
The Democrats would be beyond screwed.
Last time Texas was lost by 9% with a 2% national victory so on UNS it should require >11% to make Texas swing. Instead it looks like 8% will be sufficient, which continues a trend that has been going on for a long time. In another decade at this rate crossover will be reached.0 -
1
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Perhaps. Though if Biden wins then the Democrats would be smart to learn lessons and ensure future nominees target the midwest and other swing states more than the coasts.LostPassword said:
My assumption is that Biden is outperforming the long-term trend in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
But there's no sign of a direct Mid-West v Texas swing. In fact this time we're seeing a greater than Uniform National Swing to the Democrats in both the Mid-West and Texas are we not?LostPassword said:
Yes. I did say it would be a big win if the votes were shifted from California. But that's the crucial contingency. And, over the last few election cycles, unfortunately the change has been against the Democrats in the Mid-West.Philip_Thompson said:
It isn't infantile at all, since there's no reason that doing better in Texas would cause hurt in the Midwest. Actually this year the Democrats are doing better in the Midwest and Texas, and relatively worse in California - which is the absolute sweet spot for them to be at.LostPassword said:
1. That's a different issue to the Democrats winning Texas this time.Philip_Thompson said:
But Texas is longterm trending blue.LostPassword said:
If Biden wins Texas it will be because he's at least 8 points ahead in the national vote. It wouldn't change the Electoral College disadvantage for the Democrats.Foxy said:
If the Trumpites are suppressing the vote in Texas, they are worried.Alistair said:Lads, I think things are happening in Texas
https://twitter.com/chucklindell/status/1311718569189806089?s=19
If Texas flips, it is an EV landslide, and probably also puts Republicans at an EV /PV disadvantage rather than Democrats.
If Texas flips long-term so that its won ahead of the national vote then it absolutely will.
2. Whether it changes the Electoral College balance depends on what the compensating changes in other States are. If the Democrats take Texas in exchange for winning California by a narrower margin then that would be a big win. If the exchange is that they lose more MidWest States by narrow margins then the net change is nil* in the Electoral College (and a further big loss in the Senate).
The Democrat obsession with Texas is infantile and self-defeating.
* Could even be a net loss in the Electoral College. PA, WI, MI & MN are 56 ECVs to 38 for Texas.
Flipping Texas and making Texas a swing state makes a massive difference to the Electoral College . . . plus of course even if they don't win it, by making it a swing state then it puts the GOP on the back foot where they need to move heaven and earth to keep Texas in their column as they're screwed if they lose it.
If they exchange four more states in the Mid-West for Texas then they're another six senators behind. A par result in the Senate would almost give the Republicans enough Senators to convict any Democrat President elected by California-Texas-New York.
The Democrats would be beyond screwed.
Last time Texas was lost by 9% with a 2% national victory so on UNS it should require >11% to make Texas swing. Instead it looks like 8% will be sufficient, which continues a trend that has been going on for a long time. In another decade at this rate crossover will be reached.0 -
First sighting of a fox in our garden earlier this evening. Sixth species of wild mammal.
It seemed to spook one of the neighbours' cats!0 -
Looks like its heading to penalties at Anfield.-1
This discussion has been closed.