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Final figures show that UKIP won 3.8% of council seats on May 22 – down from 6.2% on 2013.
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First and interesting.0
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It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.0
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Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.0 -
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Given that there was an AV referendum, hasn't that set a precedent of requiring a referendum before any change to the voting system?0
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On the same basis, why would the Tories favour FPTP?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
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So UKIP got double the bang for its buck when areas favourable to the Tories went to the polls. Not that it got fair value either time.
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It produces more Conservative MPs than PR would.SouthamObserver said:
On the same basis, why would the Tories favour FPTP?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
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Because last time it benefited us.SouthamObserver said:
On the same basis, why would the Tories favour FPTP?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
We got 48% of the seats on 36% of the votes.0 -
Nah. A Con-UKIP-Green coalition on the other hand (and wouldn't that be fun).Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
Put the Greens and Kippers in a locked room with a selection of baseball bats and half-bricks, and let nature take its course.
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And far fewer LDs. So why would the LDs want to stick with it?Sean_F said:
It produces more Conservative MPs than PR would.SouthamObserver said:
On the same basis, why would the Tories favour FPTP?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
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Does FPTP actually benefit the Lib Dems though ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
They will get more vote % than seat % at the next GE, no matter how badly they do.0 -
No a Rainbow alliance of Lab, LD, Nats and Greens would the most fun.Anorak said:
Nah. A Con-UKIP-Green coalition on the other hand (and wouldn't that be fun).Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
Put the Greens and Kippers in a locked room with a selection of baseball bats and half-bricks, and let nature take its course.0 -
It hasn't in the past.Pulpstar said:
Does FPTP actually benefit the Lib Dems though ?, it hasn't for a while - but it might at the next GE.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.0 -
Isn't Cameron an ex-"PR" man?0
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If the Coalition balance of power had reflected vote share rather than seat numbers the LDs would have been in a much stronger position to draw many more red lines and may not be where they are today.Pulpstar said:
Does FPTP actually benefit the Lib Dems though ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
They will get more vote % than seat % at the next GE, no matter how badly they do.
They'd probably need to get under 5% of the vote for their seat return to become proportional.
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I'd have thought the chances were effectively zero. Firstly why on earth would Labour, of all parties, want to do that? Secondly, how on earth would a coalition get this proposal through parliament given the inevitably large group of Labour rebels who would vote with the Tories to stop it? Thirdly, as RobD points out, it would be hard to do without a referendum, and who on earth is going to persuade the good British public of the merits of some new-fangled continental voting system which will guarantee not only eternal coalitions, but eternal coalitions containing Nick Clegg? Fourthly, if an already unpopular government (which it most certainly would be, given the pressures on public finances) wanted to make itself even more unpopular, then holding a second referendum on voting reform within a few years would be a jolly sure-fire way of doing so. And fifthly - how on earth would they justify this but not an EU referendum?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
Executive summary: it ain't gonna happen.
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The current boundaries/system helps Labour massively, the Conservatives just alot. The net effect is an efficiency and a bias in Labour's favour.
But it still helps the Conservatives, just Labour more so.0 -
Whoopee! A thread on voting systems.
That said, our Tory friends do need educating in the dynamics of FPP so an act of mercy from the demigod TSE.0 -
Chilcot Inquiry says agreement is reached to disclose discussions between Tony Blair and George Bush over Iraq.
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-27625117
Gloucestershire Old Spot Pigs 15,000 feet.0 -
The way things are going, looks like they are trying to test out the theory.SouthamObserver said:
If the Coalition balance of power had reflected vote share rather than seat numbers the LDs would have been in a much stronger position to draw many more red lines and may not be where they are today.Pulpstar said:
Does FPTP actually benefit the Lib Dems though ?TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
They will get more vote % than seat % at the next GE, no matter how badly they do.
They'd probably need to get under 5% of the vote for their seat return to become proportional.0 -
Twitter
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 23s
So publication of iraq inquiry report could (at last) be this year0 -
Agree with RichardN that there is very little prospect of Labour binning FPP, for reasons of self interest.0
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Its ashame I haven't got Ashcroft/Oakeshott's pockets to commission an AV national opinion poll.
Would be interesting to see where the balance lies. I suspect UKIP's position for GE2015 would be vastly improved. Not sure about the others.0 -
labour can scrub and scrub but that damned spot ain't coming out.fitalass said:Twitter
Laura Kuenssberg @bbclaurak 23s
So publication of iraq inquiry report could (at last) be this year0 -
Liberals 1979 election
11 seats on 14% of vote
SDP-Liberal Alliance 1983 election
23 seats on 25% of vote
SDP-Liberal Alliance 1987 election
22 seats on 23%
LibDems 1992 election
20 seats on 18%
LibDems 1997 election
46 seats on 17%
LibDems 2001 election
52 seats on 18%
LibDems 2005 election
62 seats on 22%
LibDems 2010 election
57 seats on 23%0 -
Mike wrote this thread.BobaFett said:Whoopee! A thread on voting systems.
That said, our Tory friends do need educating in the dynamics of FPP so an act of mercy from the demigod TSE.0 -
They'd do so mistakenly - expecting narrow party advantage, but losing by it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Why would they?Socrates said:It's very possible a Lib-Lab Coalition could bring in PR.
FPTP will probably help Lab and Lib more than any other parties.
So why would they get rid of a system that benefits them.
One thinks of votes for women, devolution and the expansion of postal voting as innovations from the left all of which resulted in splendid peripateiea.
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@TheScreamingEagles
"Mike wrote this thread. "
You mean I have just wasted 20 minutes looking for obscure pop references? ;-)0 -
As you can see, between 1979 and 1992, Lib/Alliance/LD vote share closely matched the seats they won. Suddenly in 1997, the number of seats jumped dramatically.0
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If you're a Whedon/Buffy fan like me.....Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
"Mike wrote this thread. "
You mean I have just wasted 20 minutes looking for obscure pop references? ;-)
Hopi Sen @hopisen 29m
Once more with feeling: Buffy refs are de rigeur if writing about Labour, right @EmmaBurnell_? http://wp.me/p1Vf1s-1DA also ft @georgeeaton0 -
In the latest Voodoo poll on the website of "The Engineer", only 22% support leaving the EU. I thought it would be at least 80% amongst that right wing demograph.0
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UKIP has certainly talked the talk on targeting and has generally been far more professional in recent times than pre 2010. I would have thought they could breakthrough next year. The time it takes for Farage to declare where he's standing will give an indication of how seriously they are trying.0
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Firefly/Serenity was brilliant. Buffy I'm not too familiar with!TheScreamingEagles said:
If you're a Whedon/Buffy fan like me.....Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
"Mike wrote this thread. "
You mean I have just wasted 20 minutes looking for obscure pop references? ;-)
Hopi Sen @hopisen 29m
Once more with feeling: Buffy refs are de rigeur if writing about Labour, right @EmmaBurnell_? http://wp.me/p1Vf1s-1DA also ft @georgeeaton0 -
I have a thread in the pipeline that combines the outcome of the Indyref and a new voting system/electoral reform for the UK/rUKRobD said:
Secretly, we all love them ;-) After the AV referendum I had no idea what to do with myself...BobaFett said:Whoopee! A thread on voting systems.
That said, our Tory friends do need educating in the dynamics of FPP so an act of mercy from the demigod TSE.0 -
And get us paid !Neil said:UKIP has certainly talked the talk on targeting and has generally been far more professional in recent times than pre 2010. I would have thought they could breakthrough next year. The time it takes for Farage to declare where he's standing will give an indication of how seriously they are trying.
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@RichardNabavi
"Firstly why on earth would Labour, of all parties, want to do that? "
Because, after losing a huge midterm polling lead, Ed would have to fall on his sword
"Secondly, how on earth would a coalition get this proposal through parliament given the inevitably large group of Labour rebels who would vote with the Tories to stop it?"
I don't think many Labour rebels would do it if it would collapse the government.
"Thirdly, as RobD points out, it would be hard to do without a referendum, and who on earth is going to persuade the good British public of the merits of some new-fangled continental voting system which will guarantee not only eternal coalitions, but eternal coalitions containing Nick Clegg?"
Proportional representation is popular in polls, and easy to justify in simple, fairness terms.
"Fourthly, if an already unpopular government (which it most certainly would be, given the pressures on public finances) wanted to make itself even more unpopular, then holding a second referendum on voting reform within a few years would be a jolly sure-fire way of doing so."
I don't think it would matter a jot to their popularity.
"And fifthly - how on earth would they justify this but not an EU referendum?"
They couldn't really, but that never stopped governments.
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I'll dig out my Buffy and Angel boxsets, you are so going to love them.Sunil_Prasannan said:
Firefly/Serenity was brilliant. Buffy I'm not too familiar with!TheScreamingEagles said:
If you're a Whedon/Buffy fan like me.....Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
"Mike wrote this thread. "
You mean I have just wasted 20 minutes looking for obscure pop references? ;-)
Hopi Sen @hopisen 29m
Once more with feeling: Buffy refs are de rigeur if writing about Labour, right @EmmaBurnell_? http://wp.me/p1Vf1s-1DA also ft @georgeeaton0 -
Good afternoon, everyone.
Do we have any detail on the Chilcott deal? Given Blair managed to fortunately escape any bad press with expenses due to their accidental shredding I'm sure he'd be reluctant to volunteer any correspondence that would prove damaging to his otherwise spotless reputation.0 -
@Sunil_Prasannan
The interesting thing with 1983 is that the Liberal half of the pantomime horse got 13.9% and 17 seats the SDP 11.5% and 6. So roughly equal contributions in votes but the Libs contributing nearly 3x the seats of the SDP. I think UKIP has a twofold problem firstly the fact that everyone knows they will struggle to get seats will encourage people to shift their vote to where it counts. This will account for a drop in share and will make it harder to get a seat.0 -
A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.0 -
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Yes, he's been photoshopped out of the Iraq War debate from 2003 and replaced by IDS.Morris_Dancer said:Good afternoon, everyone.
Do we have any detail on the Chilcott deal? Given Blair managed to fortunately escape any bad press with expenses due to their accidental shredding I'm sure he'd be reluctant to volunteer any correspondence that would prove damaging to his otherwise spotless reputation.
It was the Tories that fabricated all the evidence you see.0 -
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Tranquillisers on standby.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have a thread in the pipeline that combines the outcome of the Indyref and a new voting system/electoral reform for the UK/rUKRobD said:
Secretly, we all love them ;-) After the AV referendum I had no idea what to do with myself...BobaFett said:Whoopee! A thread on voting systems.
That said, our Tory friends do need educating in the dynamics of FPP so an act of mercy from the demigod TSE.0 -
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.0 -
Features references to Status QuoRobD said:
Tranquillisers on standby.TheScreamingEagles said:
I have a thread in the pipeline that combines the outcome of the Indyref and a new voting system/electoral reform for the UK/rUKRobD said:
Secretly, we all love them ;-) After the AV referendum I had no idea what to do with myself...BobaFett said:Whoopee! A thread on voting systems.
That said, our Tory friends do need educating in the dynamics of FPP so an act of mercy from the demigod TSE.0 -
It was the OBR and Bank of England that did so.Smarmeron said:@TheScreamingEagles
They are blaming it on the weather, Obama follows George O?0 -
Is this another cunning plan by the EU to show the almost limitless economic benefits of uncontrolled immigration? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10861170/Drugs-and-prostitution-add-10bn-a-year-to-UK-economy.html
UKIP have missed a trick here (sorry couldn't resist).0 -
I'm always reminded of an episode of West Wing when Josh is berating Amy Gardner over a spoiler candidate. It's also the stupidness that leads people to add up con and UKIP to get a right wing vote bloc or Lab and LDem votes for left. It's lazy and disingenuous and you cannot decide that votes can be shifted around like that.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
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I can't see UKIP retaining much more of their Euros vote share into the following GE than they did last time. Why would they? In order of significance of your vote the locals are probably the most important, the euros the least and the GE can be either depending on your constituency.
More tellingly still, if you look at what seats UKIP might target, there are almost literally no plausible candidates. After seeing what happened in Morley and Outwood last time thoughtful kippers (there must be some) will think twice before playing the fool.
UKIP's one GE achievement to date has been to get Ed Balls re-elected. Between the knowledge of ghastly consequences like that, and the prospect of Miliband versus the prospect of a referendum, and the fact that the distance to travel back to the Tories is short, I expect that their retention will be much the same as before, i.e. 18%, maybe 20% of what they polled last week.
It will improve only to the extent that UKIP's BNP and ex-Labour WWC supporters don't have anywhere much else to go.
So about 5%.
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I don't think anyone thinks the Tories would be on ~50% in the opinion polls if UKIP ceased to exist (despite how lovely such a poll rating would be).ToryJim said:
I'm always reminded of an episode of West Wing when Josh is berating Amy Gardner over a spoiler candidate. It's also the stupidness that leads people to add up con and UKIP to get a right wing vote bloc or Lab and LDem votes for left. It's lazy and disingenuous and you cannot decide that votes can be shifted around like that.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.0 -
@TheScreamingEagles
And the American figures didn't take it into account, does that make it more true? Or less?0 -
Don't ask me how I know, I just do, that the majority of escorts in this country, are British Born, not Jane Foreigner.DavidL said:Is this another cunning plan by the EU to show the almost limitless economic benefits of uncontrolled immigration? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10861170/Drugs-and-prostitution-add-10bn-a-year-to-UK-economy.html
UKIP have missed a trick here (sorry couldn't resist).0 -
There's a great piece about how Ukip could win the next general election by targeting the aspirational working class and keeping its business crdentials.
It's called, Workers Of The World Ukip at:
http://john-moloney.blogspot.com/2014/05/workers-of-world-ukip.html0 -
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.0 -
If your premise is people being thick then there's no difference.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
If your premise is people being excited and impulsive / jittery - as you would expect from people who haven't voted for years or those who've voted Lab/Con all their lives - then you'd be looking for impulsive visual triggers that made people mark their cross without fully engaging brain and only realising after they did it e.g.
"UK Independence Now" or "UK EPP"
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What post? The system should just be called "First".0
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No but it's the mentality of the likes Carswell and Hannan and the other pacters.RobD said:
I don't think anyone thinks the Tories would be on ~50% in the opinion polls if UKIP ceased to exist (despite how lovely such a poll rating would be).ToryJim said:
I'm always reminded of an episode of West Wing when Josh is berating Amy Gardner over a spoiler candidate. It's also the stupidness that leads people to add up con and UKIP to get a right wing vote bloc or Lab and LDem votes for left. It's lazy and disingenuous and you cannot decide that votes can be shifted around like that.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.0 -
Indeed. My Con vote will be an anti-Labour, anti-LibDem and anti-UKIP vote.ToryJim said:
I'm always reminded of an episode of West Wing when Josh is berating Amy Gardner over a spoiler candidate. It's also the stupidness that leads people to add up con and UKIP to get a right wing vote bloc or Lab and LDem votes for left. It's lazy and disingenuous and you cannot decide that votes can be shifted around like that.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
My 2005 Labour vote was an anti-Labour vote.
This was always the fallacy of the left's claim that Fatcha shouldn't have had a majority because 56% "voted against" her. On that basis 72% voted against Labour and 76% voted against the Alliance in eg 1983, so she still had an overwhelming claim.0 -
"General Election are about winning seats not regional vote shares"
True, but finishing above the LDs should definitely be a massive target for UKIP too; it will help to delegitimise any coalition and (eventually; I agree there's no appetite right now) foster support for PR.0 -
I once did a truly bizarre VAT tribunal about whether certain services were VATable and, if so, whether the VAT was payable by the establishment or those providing the services (yes and the latter).TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't ask me how I know, I just do, that the majority of escorts in this country, are British Born, not Jane Foreigner.DavidL said:Is this another cunning plan by the EU to show the almost limitless economic benefits of uncontrolled immigration? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10861170/Drugs-and-prostitution-add-10bn-a-year-to-UK-economy.html
UKIP have missed a trick here (sorry couldn't resist).
This was, I freely admit, a bit of an eye opener for me but that sample did not support your assessment.
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Blimey.DavidL said:
I once did a truly bizarre VAT tribunal about whether certain services were VATable and, if so, whether the VAT was payable by the establishment or those providing the services (yes and the latter).TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't ask me how I know, I just do, that the majority of escorts in this country, are British Born, not Jane Foreigner.DavidL said:Is this another cunning plan by the EU to show the almost limitless economic benefits of uncontrolled immigration? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10861170/Drugs-and-prostitution-add-10bn-a-year-to-UK-economy.html
UKIP have missed a trick here (sorry couldn't resist).
This was, I freely admit, a bit of an eye opener for me but that sample did not support your assessment.
My assesment came from someone who works for the Prostitutes and Escorts trade union.0 -
Eastern European whores stealing British trollops' jobs ?DavidL said:
I once did a truly bizarre VAT tribunal about whether certain services were VATable and, if so, whether the VAT was payable by the establishment or those providing the services (yes and the latter).TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't ask me how I know, I just do, that the majority of escorts in this country, are British Born, not Jane Foreigner.DavidL said:Is this another cunning plan by the EU to show the almost limitless economic benefits of uncontrolled immigration? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10861170/Drugs-and-prostitution-add-10bn-a-year-to-UK-economy.html
UKIP have missed a trick here (sorry couldn't resist).
This was, I freely admit, a bit of an eye opener for me but that sample did not support your assessment.0 -
hehAlanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.0 -
If there is to be a Lib-Lab coalition, then Labour will have certainly finished below the Conservatives on vote share.Tissue_Price said:"General Election are about winning seats not regional vote shares"
True, but finishing above the LDs should definitely be a massive target for UKIP too; it will help to delegitimise any coalition and (eventually; I agree there's no appetite right now) foster support for PR.
A coalition of the 2nd and 4th parties.
I can see the headlines now.0 -
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...Alanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
You should have voted Green.0 -
The LDs aren't just going to stand still. Or rather, we will see what they are made of over the next six months. Current analysis has it that they will stay as is. But what they do next is a known unknown.Tissue_Price said:"General Election are about winning seats not regional vote shares"
True, but finishing above the LDs should definitely be a massive target for UKIP too; it will help to delegitimise any coalition and (eventually; I agree there's no appetite right now) foster support for PR.
They tried further to the left than Lab but can't go there again so I am intrigued to see what they do and how they position themselves next.
0 -
A coalition of the 2nd and 4th parties who had blocked reforms to make their seats the same size as the 1st party's.Pulpstar said:
If there is to be a Lib-Lab coalition, then Labour will have certainly finished below the Conservatives on vote share.Tissue_Price said:"General Election are about winning seats not regional vote shares"
True, but finishing above the LDs should definitely be a massive target for UKIP too; it will help to delegitimise any coalition and (eventually; I agree there's no appetite right now) foster support for PR.
A coalition of the 2nd and 4th parties.
I can see the headlines now.
The Daily Mail wouldn't just write headlines, they'd start a campaign of (mild) civil disobedience.0 -
It will be interesting. And I expect them to beat UKIP, actually. But it seems as though they have two polar-opposite strategies to consider (pride or repudiation of their joint record); fudging the issue looks worse than either.TOPPING said:
The LDs aren't just going to stand still. Or rather, we will see what they are made of over the next six months. Current analysis has it that they will stay as is. But their actions form a known unknown.Tissue_Price said:"General Election are about winning seats not regional vote shares"
True, but finishing above the LDs should definitely be a massive target for UKIP too; it will help to delegitimise any coalition and (eventually; I agree there's no appetite right now) foster support for PR.
They tried further to the left than Lab but can't go there again so I am intrigued to see what they do and how they position themselves next.0 -
I think UKIPs biggest issue will be the performance of their Councillors. People have voted for them either as a protest or on the basis of their one policy. Their Councillors now have to do what Councillors do. What I found interesting from last Thursday was the poor performance of UKIP in areas where they have a well known local organisation.or had councillors. For them to actually lose councillors on a night where they made such huge gains was a big surprise. There must be a reason for this.0
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Newark again.
Using the figures from table 2 of the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, showing how current voting intention relates to past voting intention, I have applied** the changes to the Newark vote totals, which gives the following prediction for the by-election.
Conservative 45.2% (-8.7)
Labour 26.5% (+4.2)
UKIP 21.2% (+17.4)
Liberal Democrats 7.1% (-12.9)
So if Labour do end up coming third in Newark then it suggests that they are underperforming their already mediocre opinion poll scores.
** I've assumed that don't knows will not vote, that UKIP retain 10% of their 2010 vote, and I've neglected to calculate the numbers for the Greens and Others because I can't be bothered and it does not effect the relative positions of the other four parties - though the splits in the opinion poll do currently suggest that the Greens could run the Lib Dems close for fourth place.0 -
With the US slowing down, and the FTSE near record highs, might be a good time to bet against the FTSE ?
I have no idea how to do that though !0 -
Labour would take that result right now, as would the Conservatives.OblitusSumMe said:Newark again.
Using the figures from table 2 of the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, showing how current voting intention relates to past voting intention, I have applied** the changes to the Newark vote totals, which gives the following prediction for the by-election.
Conservative 45.2% (-8.7)
Labour 26.5% (+4.2)
UKIP 21.2% (+17.4)
Liberal Democrats 7.1% (-12.9)
So if Labour do end up coming third in Newark then it suggests that they are underperforming their already mediocre opinion poll scores.
** I've assumed that don't knows will not vote, that UKIP retain 10% of their 2010 vote, and I've neglected to calculate the numbers for the Greens and Others because I can't be bothered and it does not effect the relative positions of the other four parties - though the splits in the opinion poll do currently suggest that the Greens could run the Lib Dems close for fourth place.
UKIP would be disappointed. I'd imagine the Lib Dems would be glad to save their deposit !0 -
To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.TheScreamingEagles said:
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...Alanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
You should have voted Green.0 -
Would you prefer the nonsense on stilts that they operate in Northern Ireland?ToryJim said:
To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.TheScreamingEagles said:
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...Alanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
You should have voted Green.0 -
Bought for £800 a head at London slave markets that don't exist in the political class' version of reality.Pulpstar said:
Eastern European whores stealing British trollops' jobs ?DavidL said:
I once did a truly bizarre VAT tribunal about whether certain services were VATable and, if so, whether the VAT was payable by the establishment or those providing the services (yes and the latter).TheScreamingEagles said:
Don't ask me how I know, I just do, that the majority of escorts in this country, are British Born, not Jane Foreigner.DavidL said:Is this another cunning plan by the EU to show the almost limitless economic benefits of uncontrolled immigration? http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/economics/10861170/Drugs-and-prostitution-add-10bn-a-year-to-UK-economy.html
UKIP have missed a trick here (sorry couldn't resist).
This was, I freely admit, a bit of an eye opener for me but that sample did not support your assessment.
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With the US slowing down, and the FTSE near record highs, might be a good time to bet against the FTSE ?
I can only give you my experience from 1987 viz a viz stocks. The market only really dropped when everybody gave up on predicting that it would drop.
Nobody's been bullish about stocks for years so of course they've gone up. It's when everybody starts getting bullish that we can safely say the markets reached the top
Look at the UK housing market. People have been predicting its demise for decades only to look incredibly stupid. Now its rise is just assumed - a sure fire indicator it'll start to fall.0 -
On a lowish turnout of 40% that would imply a majority of about 5,500 on my simple maths.OblitusSumMe said:Newark again.
Using the figures from table 2 of the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, showing how current voting intention relates to past voting intention, I have applied** the changes to the Newark vote totals, which gives the following prediction for the by-election.
Conservative 45.2% (-8.7)
Labour 26.5% (+4.2)
UKIP 21.2% (+17.4)
Liberal Democrats 7.1% (-12.9)
So if Labour do end up coming third in Newark then it suggests that they are underperforming their already mediocre opinion poll scores.
** I've assumed that don't knows will not vote, that UKIP retain 10% of their 2010 vote, and I've neglected to calculate the numbers for the Greens and Others because I can't be bothered and it does not effect the relative positions of the other four parties - though the splits in the opinion poll do currently suggest that the Greens could run the Lib Dems close for fourth place.0 -
Are you saying that as an LD supporter or a Lab supporter who's disappointed that they havent done exactly as Lab wanted?Smarmeron said:@TOPPING
" I am intrigued to see what they do and how they position themselves next."
Not bent over with their clothing round their ankles might be an improvement?0 -
Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.
e.g. ask how many houses like this there are
http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353
because if there were 10s of thousands of them then doing something about it would take a big chunk out of a lot of problems
- housing shortage
- employment
- welfare fraud
- tax
- crime
0 -
0
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STV has a lot of advantages over the system used in Great Britain.SandyRentool said:
Would you prefer the nonsense on stilts that they operate in Northern Ireland?ToryJim said:
To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.TheScreamingEagles said:
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...Alanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
You should have voted Green.0 -
STV is the best!SandyRentool said:
Would you prefer the nonsense on stilts that they operate in Northern Ireland?ToryJim said:
To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.TheScreamingEagles said:
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...Alanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
You should have voted Green.0 -
I went for either a 2500 or a 1500 majority in the election game. Can't remember which.ToryJim said:
On a lowish turnout of 40% that would imply a majority of about 5,500 on my simple maths.OblitusSumMe said:Newark again.
Using the figures from table 2 of the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, showing how current voting intention relates to past voting intention, I have applied** the changes to the Newark vote totals, which gives the following prediction for the by-election.
Conservative 45.2% (-8.7)
Labour 26.5% (+4.2)
UKIP 21.2% (+17.4)
Liberal Democrats 7.1% (-12.9)
So if Labour do end up coming third in Newark then it suggests that they are underperforming their already mediocre opinion poll scores.
** I've assumed that don't knows will not vote, that UKIP retain 10% of their 2010 vote, and I've neglected to calculate the numbers for the Greens and Others because I can't be bothered and it does not effect the relative positions of the other four parties - though the splits in the opinion poll do currently suggest that the Greens could run the Lib Dems close for fourth place.0 -
Sunil Prasannan @Sunil_P2 · 13s
Liberal/Alliance/LibDems electoral performance since 1979. pic.twitter.com/BpexFKU1lZ
0 -
@SandyRentool
I think the purpose of an election is to choose a candidate or series of candidates not merely to endorse the choice of a back room cabal. I dislike the fact that the person at the top of the most popular lists can be entirely useless and indolent and still get in whilst those at the bottom can be cracking and work hard but stand not a hope in hell.0 -
You see a problem, Boba sees a welcome neighbour.MrJones said:Reality is on Ukip's side so they don't need to do anything much except avoid mistakes and try to publicize the things the political class won't talk about.
e.g. ask how many houses like this there are
http://www.wakefieldexpress.co.uk/news/local-news/update-men-from-dewsbury-and-heckmondwike-jailed-for-human-trafficking-1-6615353
because if there were 10s of thousands of them then doing something about it would take a big chunk out of a lot of problems
- housing shortage
- employment
- welfare fraud
- tax
- crime0 -
But certainly not when it comes to figuring out who has been elected.Neil said:
STV has a lot of advantages over the system used in Great Britain.SandyRentool said:
Would you prefer the nonsense on stilts that they operate in Northern Ireland?ToryJim said:
To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.TheScreamingEagles said:
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...Alanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
You should have voted Green.
And why should the result be decided by how many candidates each party decides to put on the ballot? A bit random, that. Give me d'Hondt (preceded by FPTP primaries to decide the candidate order) any day.0 -
EHV's best. Only with enormo-haddock voting will we get the best possible government for Britain, with the Lords replaced by the House of Lemurs.0
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Isn't that the Upper House on the island of Madagascar, Mr Dancer?Morris_Dancer said:EHV's best. Only with enormo-haddock voting will we get the best possible government for Britain, with the Lords replaced by the House of Lemurs.
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We know who was elected in Northern Ireland. That would seem to be the main thing.SandyRentool said:
But certainly not when it comes to figuring out who has been elected.Neil said:
STV has a lot of advantages over the system used in Great Britain.SandyRentool said:
Would you prefer the nonsense on stilts that they operate in Northern Ireland?ToryJim said:
To be honest I rather loathe the closed list system.TheScreamingEagles said:
You lot in the West Midlands had a rum choice, Sion Simon, Dave Nellist...Alanbrooke said:
I voted ED since I couldn't think of anyone else. I was going to vote No2EU but when I saw their candidate was Dave Nellist I couldn't bring myself to do it.TheScreamingEagles said:
Mike Nattrass' home turf is the West Midlands (He was the MEP in that region), so you could argue some if not a majority were personal votes for him.antifrank said:A question for anyone to take a view on, on which I don't have a fixed view. In the West Midlands region at the Euro Elections, An Independence From Europe tallied 27,000 votes, while the BNP tallied over 20,000 votes, We Demand A Referendum Now tallied 23,000 votes and the English Democrats tallied 13,000 votes. How many of these votes should be regarded as conned from UKIP and (more importantly) how do you come to that conclusion?
I'm particularly interested in the comparison between An Independence From Europe and We Demand A Referendum Now, which strike me as very similar parties, yet one has been accused of attempting to dupe UKIP voters while the other has passed unnoticed.
English Democrats have longed existed, so their votes are their own.
BNP - Are again their own voters, this is the bunch that think only the BNP are the only racist party in the UK, and Farage is a bit metropolitan poncey-boots gaylord.
We Demand A Referendum Now - Is also led by an ex splitter UKIP MEP, so like Mike Nattrass' mob, mostly personal votes.
You should have voted Green.
It's not. The result is decided by who the voters vote for.SandyRentool said:
And why should the result be decided by how many candidates each party decides to put on the ballot?
So you prefer d'Hondt to STV. Great. I'm not one for endless debates on voting systems myself. But the idea that d'Hondt is just fine while STV is "nonsense on stilts" is silly.0 -
You would assume that Government parties would do worse than such a prediction because of the nature of by-elections and differential turnout**, but I've never tried using the opinion poll splits to predict a by-election in this way, so I don't have a feel for how large that effect would be.ToryJim said:
On a lowish turnout of 40% that would imply a majority of about 5,500 on my simple maths.OblitusSumMe said:Newark again.
Using the figures from table 2 of the latest Lord Ashcroft poll, showing how current voting intention relates to past voting intention, I have applied** the changes to the Newark vote totals, which gives the following prediction for the by-election.
Conservative 45.2% (-8.7)
Labour 26.5% (+4.2)
UKIP 21.2% (+17.4)
Liberal Democrats 7.1% (-12.9)
So if Labour do end up coming third in Newark then it suggests that they are underperforming their already mediocre opinion poll scores.
** I've assumed that don't knows will not vote, that UKIP retain 10% of their 2010 vote, and I've neglected to calculate the numbers for the Greens and Others because I can't be bothered and it does not effect the relative positions of the other four parties - though the splits in the opinion poll do currently suggest that the Greens could run the Lib Dems close for fourth place.
** For example, the turnout implied by this method is greater than 56%, but like you I would expect it to be under 50% - for comparison the turnout in Corby was 44.8%.0 -
Dr. Prasannan, perhaps, but ours would be occupied by psychic octo-lemurs.
This would be a great improvement over the likes of Lord Oakeshott.0