Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
We don't know that for a fact.
We can never know it for a fact, but it does seem highly likely.
Considering most of the country that voted "leave" never experienced any real significant EU immigration, I think it's a rather lazy analysis. The areas that received significant EU immigration voted "remain".
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
We don't know that for a fact.
We can never know it for a fact, but it does seem highly likely.
Considering most of the country that voted "leave" never experienced any real significant EU immigration, I think it's a rather lazy analysis. The areas that received significant EU immigration voted "remain".
So perception more important than reality? The perception of control may have been enough.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
Although YouGov don't currently publish their probability distributions, I think I can screen-scrape that chart to get it. If so I'll add it to my occasional summary of the distributions.
It's interesting that they have Ohio as less Biden-friendly than Texas.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
We don't know that for a fact.
We can never know it for a fact, but it does seem highly likely.
Considering most of the country that voted "leave" never experienced any real significant EU immigration, I think it's a rather lazy analysis. The areas that received significant EU immigration voted "remain".
So perception more important than reality? The perception of control may have been enough.
You're right, that is true. But in this parallel universe where these controls were levied, who knows what the unintended consequences of that would have been. Euroscepticism didn't begin in 1997.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
I don't understand the lunacy behind this "world beating" nonsense. Our testing regime certainly isn't bad by any means. It could even be described as good, but the insistence that it is "world beating" is just not based in reality.
It was political hype but to be fair we are out testing anyone in Europe and 10 million plus have downloaded the app, including myself, and in a month or two it could be quite exceptional
But we're not out testing anyone in Europe. That just isn't true. Denmark amongst others beat us per 100,000 people, and Russia beats us in absolute number of tests.
And 10m downloads of the app is good (including myself) but it isn't enough. We need much more than that. The app itself is very good in my opinion.
I said way back that I didn't see more than 20% downloading the app and was told I was wrong.....engaging smug mode....smug mode engaged
It's been out for what, four days?
It's not the number of downloads that matters anyway. Generally a large fraction of all app downloads are followed by an uninstall within a few minutes or hours. What matters is the number of people using the COVID-19 app, and the number of phones where the app is operating as intended. To get the point where the app delivers useful levels of proximity detection for contact tracing is going to require everybody who can download the app to do so, and all of those people to enable the app and required services, and for the app to operate properly all of the time.
In all likelihood these sort of apps are not going to make much difference to the outcome of the pandemic.
That said the addition of the venue check-in feature, symptoms checker, risk checker, and links to advice do make the app quite useful even if proximity detection doesn't end up moving the needle much.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
We don't know that for a fact.
We can never know it for a fact, but it does seem highly likely.
Perhaps, though people were banging on about immigration before 2007 too.
Plus of course imposing controls would have seen the migration still eventually arrive, it wouldn't have prevented it. We imposed migration controls on Romania, yet there are now nearly half a million Romanians living in the UK with the vast majority arriving after transition controls expired.
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
If you are at all uncertain, Philip, you should avoid the spreads. Even the most astute punters can be caught out. In any case you've missed the best prices and I'm not sure how much more mileage there is in them now.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
I seem to recall that, at some time in the 2016 campaign, Hilary Clinton said something about her opponent paying no taxes. His response was that 'that made him smart'!
I wonder if secretly many a taxpayer said, and will say again; 'Crafty old whatsit; sort of cunning guy we want at the top'. If it was disclosed that our PM was had managed to avoid paying anything to HMRC, would that do him good or harm?
Yes, a bit like calling military dead "suckers" Trump appeals to that individualistic selfish streak. Dodging tax and the draft is what many secretly would do if they could.
We know he is a con artist, so there is an element of lack of surprise to it all.
I don't think this will do him any harm with his base.
It might help Biden firm up his turnout a bit more.
I think it's got to be somewhat positive for Biden. Sure, it's no surprise, and there will be those who'll just think "yeah, I hate the taxman too" (like Berlusconi supporters in Italy). BUT it will remind waverers again of why he shouldn't be president. The kind of people who didn't turn out last time because they couldn't stand Clinton either. And, the stories about him losing loads of money and being hundreds of millions in debt, dent his claims to be a great business person.
No gamechanger but it's further evidence - to throw on the pile - of Trump's unelectability this time. He is out to 2.36 on betfair but that is still WAY too short. If the polls do not move significantly in his favour in the days following the first debate I predict the penny will drop and his price will collapse. My buy of Biden EC supremacy at 28 is a position I would not swap for all the tea in China. Roll on 3/11.
Trump won in 2016 so he clearly is not unelectable, the odds favour Biden and I now think Biden will pick up Arizona and Pennsylvania but if Trump holds Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina and Ohio or maybe loses 1 but adds Nevada and New Hampshire he will be re elected, it only takes a small swing to Trump after a good or OK performance in the debate tomorrow and that is possible
Unelectable THIS TIME is what I have always said - and say with more confidence than ever now that the polling evidence is in line with my intuition. I think Trump will do well to keep the EC margin below 150. It's all about Biden from here on in for me. His health needs to hold up and he needs to avoid any calamities, either in the debates or otherwise. Donald Trump is Donald Trump. He's crude and one dimensional. He can chase it using ever more desperate measures - and no doubt will - but in doing so he will only firm up the vote against him. The bottom line is that after 4 years of seeing him in the job there are not enough terminal suckers in America to give him another 4.
I`ve just topped up on my BF "Trump Electoral College Votes" range bet 180-209 at just over 7.
That's a very good bet imo. My main one is a buy of Biden EC supremacy at 28.
People haven't accepted that Brexit means the UK being a client of the EU across the areas that agreement covers. This reluctance to accept reality has included Remainers as well as Leavers. Right now the decision is between minimal agreement and no agreement on anything to ensure no client status applies. No-one voted Leave to be controlled. Eventually we will probably agree to quite a lot on EU terms because it's better to have agreement than have no agreement when agreement is possible. That can be seen to be a "close relationship", albeit as a client.
Given the 52% to 48% result was pretty close anyway an EFTA style relationship is probably the likely long term outcome of our relationship with the EU, however that would require a Sunak or Starmer premiership rather than a Boris premiership in all likelihood to get there
I agree. But the EFTA style relationship won't be a comfortable one for a UK (if it still exists) with a well developed sense of self-importance.
Britain is not a superpower like the US, China and increasingly India and should not act like one however it is a medium sized power alongside France, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Russia and still has a role to play as a G7, G20, NATO and UN Security Council member
Britain's superpower status (pre 1950s) derived from the fact it could call upon reflexive loyalty of Canada, NZ, Australia and South Africa, and leverage manpower from India - and to a lesser extent East Africa. This allowed it to play at least a 30-40% partner role with the USA, as opposed to the 10% partner role we play today.
If that existed today, the UK would more than double the weight of its army and navy with the "Dominions". Still not a superpower but comfortably exceeding any other Western power, except the USA. If you added India/Africa on top - with their huge manpower - you'd then have a quasi-superpower, provided you had the logistical and staff capabilities to leverage it.
Without any of that we are just a leading European military with blue-water deployment capability.
Sounds about right but I'd love to see you present that one over a few pints in the pubs and clubs of Leave Nation.
"There's nothing special about us. We're not some massive power these days. That's all gone FFS so stop getting all hoarse and misty-eyed about it. We're just a leading European military with blue-water deployment capability."
You'll need to be buying otherwise there might be fisticuffs.
Your first sentence is redundant and unnecessarily confrontation which may be why you'd be expecting upset. Otherwise its pretty uncontroversial.
I don't understand the lunacy behind this "world beating" nonsense. Our testing regime certainly isn't bad by any means. It could even be described as good, but the insistence that it is "world beating" is just not based in reality.
It was political hype but to be fair we are out testing anyone in Europe and 10 million plus have downloaded the app, including myself, and in a month or two it could be quite exceptional
But we're not out testing anyone in Europe. That just isn't true. Denmark amongst others beat us per 100,000 people, and Russia beats us in absolute number of tests.
And 10m downloads of the app is good (including myself) but it isn't enough. We need much more than that. The app itself is very good in my opinion.
I said way back that I didn't see more than 20% downloading the app and was told I was wrong.....engaging smug mode....smug mode engaged
It's been out for what, four days?
It's not the number of downloads that matters anyway. Generally a large fraction of all app downloads are followed by an uninstall within a few minutes or hours. What matters is the number of people using the COVID-19 app, and the number of phones where the app is operating as intended. To get the point where the app delivers useful levels of proximity detection for contact tracing is going to require everybody who can download the app to do so, and all of those people to enable the app and required services, and for the app to operate properly all of the time.
In all likelihood these sort of apps are not going to make much difference to the outcome of the pandemic.
Most apps people use and then either find they have to pay, or get bored with/stop using. The NHS app just seems to run in the background and you don't have to actively use it, so I don't think the same will follow.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, gym and swimming pool, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
If you are at all uncertain, Philip, you should avoid the spreads. Even the most astute punters can be caught out. In any case you've missed the best prices and I'm not sure how much more mileage there is in them now.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
Interestingly YouGov MRP gives both Ohio and Texas to Biden but puts Texas as the closer of the two.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
It's remarkable how many Eastern Europeans around here know the benefits system better than the locals do.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
We don't know that for a fact.
We can never know it for a fact, but it does seem highly likely.
Perhaps, though people were banging on about immigration before 2007 too.
Plus of course imposing controls would have seen the migration still eventually arrive, it wouldn't have prevented it. We imposed migration controls on Romania, yet there are now nearly half a million Romanians living in the UK with the vast majority arriving after transition controls expired.
There has, of course, been a considerable amount of immigration into the UK since about 1950, from all sorts of places. Settling the Ugandan Asian exiles in 1972 wasn't without it's difficulties and were only about 30,000 of them
I don't understand the lunacy behind this "world beating" nonsense. Our testing regime certainly isn't bad by any means. It could even be described as good, but the insistence that it is "world beating" is just not based in reality.
It was political hype but to be fair we are out testing anyone in Europe and 10 million plus have downloaded the app, including myself, and in a month or two it could be quite exceptional
But we're not out testing anyone in Europe. That just isn't true. Denmark amongst others beat us per 100,000 people, and Russia beats us in absolute number of tests.
And 10m downloads of the app is good (including myself) but it isn't enough. We need much more than that. The app itself is very good in my opinion.
I said way back that I didn't see more than 20% downloading the app and was told I was wrong.....engaging smug mode....smug mode engaged
It's been out for what, four days?
It's not the number of downloads that matters anyway. Generally a large fraction of all app downloads are followed by an uninstall within a few minutes or hours. What matters is the number of people using the COVID-19 app, and the number of phones where the app is operating as intended. To get the point where the app delivers useful levels of proximity detection for contact tracing is going to require everybody who can download the app to do so, and all of those people to enable the app and required services, and for the app to operate properly all of the time.
In all likelihood these sort of apps are not going to make much difference to the outcome of the pandemic.
That said the addition of the venue check-in feature, symptoms checker, risk checker, and links to advice to make the app quite useful even if proximity detection doesn't end up moving the needle much.
Is the statement regarding uninstalls true for the NHS app? Agreed it is probably going to be of limited use, given how it has panned out in other countries. The check in system looks interesting though.
I'm not sure how much more mileage there is in them now.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
We don't know that for a fact.
We can never know it for a fact, but it does seem highly likely.
Perhaps, though people were banging on about immigration before 2007 too.
Plus of course imposing controls would have seen the migration still eventually arrive, it wouldn't have prevented it. We imposed migration controls on Romania, yet there are now nearly half a million Romanians living in the UK with the vast majority arriving after transition controls expired.
Oh it's the numbers guy back! Hoorah. We missed you.
I'm not sure how much more mileage there is in them now.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
Time to cash out?
As a general rule I don't like to cash out of spreads because of the large margins. Maybe nearer election day I will do so partly, but now seems like the wrong time.
I don't understand the lunacy behind this "world beating" nonsense. Our testing regime certainly isn't bad by any means. It could even be described as good, but the insistence that it is "world beating" is just not based in reality.
It was political hype but to be fair we are out testing anyone in Europe and 10 million plus have downloaded the app, including myself, and in a month or two it could be quite exceptional
But we're not out testing anyone in Europe. That just isn't true. Denmark amongst others beat us per 100,000 people, and Russia beats us in absolute number of tests.
And 10m downloads of the app is good (including myself) but it isn't enough. We need much more than that. The app itself is very good in my opinion.
I said way back that I didn't see more than 20% downloading the app and was told I was wrong.....engaging smug mode....smug mode engaged
It's been out for what, four days?
It's not the number of downloads that matters anyway. Generally a large fraction of all app downloads are followed by an uninstall within a few minutes or hours. What matters is the number of people using the COVID-19 app, and the number of phones where the app is operating as intended. To get the point where the app delivers useful levels of proximity detection for contact tracing is going to require everybody who can download the app to do so, and all of those people to enable the app and required services, and for the app to operate properly all of the time.
In all likelihood these sort of apps are not going to make much difference to the outcome of the pandemic.
Look at the uptake in other countries which have similar apps they are all similarly low. As to out for four days I would expect most that are going to bother downloading it within the first week.
even germany where people listen to their government has only got in on 17.8 million phones for a population of 83 million just barely getting past that 20% I suggested
They won't even be around in 10 years, this judgment was always strange
Why is it a strange judgement, Horse? I haven't read it.
As I see it it's a touch more political. Sadiq took large amounts of money from Taxi Driver organisations for his campaign, and made public promises to go for Uber.
Then a few weeks after he was elected, TFL went for Uber.
Then Sadiq turned into Pontius Pilate and said "nothing to do with me, Guv".
Then Sadiq sorry TFL (nothing to do with Sadiq, of course) got spanked in Court for a lot of the stuff they had tried to do.
And so it has gone on since.
And Sadiq sorry TFL just got spanked again. Nothing to do with Sadiq, remember.
I'd say he's still wallowing around in a dodgy political swamp of his own creation.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Those facilities are regularly built across the country, what part of that is confusing you? 😕
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Is the statement regarding uninstalls true for the NHS app? Agreed it is probably going to be of limited use, given how it has panned out in other countries. The check in system looks interesting though.
I don't know, but other countries have reported download numbers and then much lower actual usage.
Adding extra features might actually help to keep the app installed and in use, because it blocks access to them if Bluetooth and Location is disabled. If we could make WhatsApp usage dependent on Exposure Notifications being enabled and working we could get everybody using the app.
I seem to recall that, at some time in the 2016 campaign, Hilary Clinton said something about her opponent paying no taxes. His response was that 'that made him smart'!
I wonder if secretly many a taxpayer said, and will say again; 'Crafty old whatsit; sort of cunning guy we want at the top'. If it was disclosed that our PM was had managed to avoid paying anything to HMRC, would that do him good or harm?
Yes, a bit like calling military dead "suckers" Trump appeals to that individualistic selfish streak. Dodging tax and the draft is what many secretly would do if they could.
We know he is a con artist, so there is an element of lack of surprise to it all.
I don't think this will do him any harm with his base.
It might help Biden firm up his turnout a bit more.
I think it's got to be somewhat positive for Biden. Sure, it's no surprise, and there will be those who'll just think "yeah, I hate the taxman too" (like Berlusconi supporters in Italy). BUT it will remind waverers again of why he shouldn't be president. The kind of people who didn't turn out last time because they couldn't stand Clinton either. And, the stories about him losing loads of money and being hundreds of millions in debt, dent his claims to be a great business person.
No gamechanger but it's further evidence - to throw on the pile - of Trump's unelectability this time. He is out to 2.36 on betfair but that is still WAY too short. If the polls do not move significantly in his favour in the days following the first debate I predict the penny will drop and his price will collapse. My buy of Biden EC supremacy at 28 is a position I would not swap for all the tea in China. Roll on 3/11.
Trump won in 2016 so he clearly is not unelectable, the odds favour Biden and I now think Biden will pick up Arizona and Pennsylvania but if Trump holds Florida, Michigan, Wisconsin and North Carolina and Ohio or maybe loses 1 but adds Nevada and New Hampshire he will be re elected, it only takes a small swing to Trump after a good or OK performance in the debate tomorrow and that is possible
Unelectable THIS TIME is what I have always said - and say with more confidence than ever now that the polling evidence is in line with my intuition. I think Trump will do well to keep the EC margin below 150. It's all about Biden from here on in for me. His health needs to hold up and he needs to avoid any calamities, either in the debates or otherwise. Donald Trump is Donald Trump. He's crude and one dimensional. He can chase it using ever more desperate measures - and no doubt will - but in doing so he will only firm up the vote against him. The bottom line is that after 4 years of seeing him in the job there are not enough terminal suckers in America to give him another 4.
Even now about 43/44% of US voters will vote for Trump, he got 46% in 2016 so that is only a small swing from Trump to Biden, if Trump has a good performance in the debates that support could easily swing back
He needs a black swan because almost everyone has seen and heard enough to either be sticking with him or be wanting him gone. Course, Donald Trump performing in a truly impressive and presidential fashion at any of the debates is so vanishingly unlikely that it would count as a black swan. But I just can't see it. IMO he does not have the capacity to do this.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Those facilities are regularly built across the country, what part of that is confusing you? 😕
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Not in conjunction with housing developments in any significant quantity they are not. Not regularly anyway, and especially less so now that LAs have significantly less money to spend.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Those facilities are regularly built across the country, what part of that is confusing you? 😕
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Why should I pay for building infrastructure to allow a private company to make a huge profit?
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
If you are at all uncertain, Philip, you should avoid the spreads. Even the most astute punters can be caught out. In any case you've missed the best prices and I'm not sure how much more mileage there is in them now.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
Interestingly YouGov MRP gives both Ohio and Texas to Biden but puts Texas as the closer of the two.
Quiz question: What proportion of the population of Ulster lives in Northern Ireland?
78%?
It's 89.4% - a figure which is surprisingly high until you find out that the 12 largest urban areas in Ulster are in Northern Ireland, with Letterkenny the largest not.
Quiz question: What proportion of the population of Ulster lives in Northern Ireland?
78%?
It's 89.4% - a figure which is surprisingly high until you find out that the 12 largest urban areas in Ulster are in Northern Ireland, with Letterkenny the largest not.
I was also wondering - who is the female in the painting? It could hardly be Countess Markievicz.
The "village" on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne where I live has had significant housing growth in the past 5 years. The size of the "village" has increased by 60%.
It was made a requirement of the planning permission for the housing developers to contribute millions to demolish the old one, and build a new first school in the "village". That's the only infrastructure that was built, and it was essentially the home owners that paid.
Elsewhere in Newcastle there's an entire new suburb built over the past 20 years (and still ongoing) called "Great Park" that has almost zero infrastructure. It's just a sea of thousands of houses. They were promised a "town centre" but it has not arrived.
Thinking all this infrastructure is going to magically arrive with even LESS regulation is for the birds.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Those facilities are regularly built across the country, what part of that is confusing you? 😕
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Developers are (maybe it'll soon be were) expected to contribute to community development schemes. There was a particularly odious proposal locally which objected to doing so, and said, inter alia that there was space in a primary school some 15 miles away. The scheme got short shrift from the Inspector.
I'm not sure how much more mileage there is in them now.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
Time to cash out?
As a general rule I don't like to cash out of spreads because of the large margins. Maybe nearer election day I will do so partly, but now seems like the wrong time.
Although the spread on the SPIN Supremacy market is only the equivalent of 3 ECVs, for some unfathomable reason half that of the main markets.
Look at the uptake in other countries which have similar apps they are all similarly low. As to out for four days I would expect most that are going to bother downloading it within the first week.
even germany where people listen to their government has only got in on 17.8 million phones for a population of 83 million just barely getting past that 20% I suggested
And those are the download numbers, not an app installed and working now.
Plus of course imposing controls would have seen the migration still eventually arrive, it wouldn't have prevented it. We imposed migration controls on Romania, yet there are now nearly half a million Romanians living in the UK with the vast majority arriving after transition controls expired.
That's irrelevant; Romanians per million of population is the only sensible metric.
Quiz question: What proportion of the population of Ulster lives in Northern Ireland?
78%?
It's 89.4% - a figure which is surprisingly high until you find out that the 12 largest urban areas in Ulster are in Northern Ireland, with Letterkenny the largest not.
I was also wondering - who is the female in the painting? It could hardly be Countess Markievicz.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well fine but any serious illness takes months to recover from. This hasn't had time to count as long covid yet, it's short to medium term covid.
Never heard anyone fit and healthy under 60 still be not fully recovered from the flu after 6 months. With the rona it's 100% of people I know have had in their 50s.
Do you mean they have all recovered, or not at all?
The latter. Sent you a message woth some friends experience. If this was anything like the flu I'd be with the herd immunity lot. It simply isn't
PS Does anyone recommend a decent source (e.g. BMJ) for the rate of getting long covid as a function of age, assuming one catches the virus in the first place, please?
We don't know yet - Long Covid could have a 5 or even 30 year recurrence window.
If you want a another reason for avoiding getting infected look here:
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Those facilities are regularly built across the country, what part of that is confusing you? 😕
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Developers are (maybe it'll soon be were) expected to contribute to community development schemes. There was a particularly odious proposal locally which objected to doing so, and said, inter alia that there was space in a primary school some 15 miles away. The scheme got short shrift from the Inspector.
So - an example of the Planning System functioning correctly to prevent inappropriate development.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
It's remarkable how many Eastern Europeans around here know the benefits system better than the locals do.
But they are more likely to be working and less likely to be claiming benefits than the indigenous population on average.
Quiz question: What proportion of the population of Ulster lives in Northern Ireland?
78%?
It's 89.4% - a figure which is surprisingly high until you find out that the 12 largest urban areas in Ulster are in Northern Ireland, with Letterkenny the largest not.
I was also wondering - who is the female in the painting? It could hardly be Countess Markievicz.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
Britain's superpower status (pre 1950s) derived from the fact it could call upon reflexive loyalty of Canada, NZ, Australia and South Africa, and leverage manpower from India - and to a lesser extent East Africa. This allowed it to play at least a 30-40% partner role with the USA, as opposed to the 10% partner role we play today.
I think Australia, India and Japan (NZ will probably have the sense to stay out of it) will end up in a defensive alliance to counter China.
The UK can contribute a Spitfire for the memorial flyover when they lose.
Quiz question: What proportion of the population of Ulster lives in Northern Ireland?
78%?
It's 89.4% - a figure which is surprisingly high until you find out that the 12 largest urban areas in Ulster are in Northern Ireland, with Letterkenny the largest not.
I was also wondering - who is the female in the painting? It could hardly be Countess Markievicz.
That is the Marchioness of Londonderry, or, at least, one of them.
According to the National [woke] Trust it was her mother in law, the preceding Marchioness of Londonderry, who played an important role in the Ulster Covenant.
But the younger did marry into the family in enough time to have been involved too, I have no doubt.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
One thing we both criticise HYUFD and Philip on is posting things which differ from what the experts say.
Yet you are doing that same thing here, as people who understand the welfare system say things that you disagree with.
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
Although YouGov don't currently publish their probability distributions, I think I can screen-scrape that chart to get it. If so I'll add it to my occasional summary of the distributions.
It's interesting that they have Ohio as less Biden-friendly than Texas.
As I understand it, their probabilities for a Biden win, from Wisconsin all the way to Texas, range from 51% to 48%. That seems an unrealistically narrow band.
In contrast, 538 goes from 82% (WI) to 30% (TX), which intuitively seems a little closer to reality ?
Is the statement regarding uninstalls true for the NHS app? Agreed it is probably going to be of limited use, given how it has panned out in other countries. The check in system looks interesting though.
I don't know, but other countries have reported download numbers and then much lower actual usage.
Adding extra features might actually help to keep the app installed and in use, because it blocks access to them if Bluetooth and Location is disabled. If we could make WhatsApp usage dependent on Exposure Notifications being enabled and working we could get everybody using the app.
It seems quite odd to me that it books one into a site and 'leaves' one there until midnight. For example I booked into the gym this morning at 7.45 and, according to the app, am still there. Actually I left about 9.30. So, if someone turns up to that gym at noon and tests positive, will I be contacted? I know we've got to give the tracers something to do, but .......
Quiz question: What proportion of the population of Ulster lives in Northern Ireland?
78%?
It's 89.4% - a figure which is surprisingly high until you find out that the 12 largest urban areas in Ulster are in Northern Ireland, with Letterkenny the largest not.
I was also wondering - who is the female in the painting? It could hardly be Countess Markievicz.
Of course, yes, thank you! - she of the Primrose League and all that. Though contrary to assumptions that uniform turns out to be of the Women's Legion - a Great War volunteer organization to support the forces eg by acting as drivers.
Plus of course imposing controls would have seen the migration still eventually arrive, it wouldn't have prevented it. We imposed migration controls on Romania, yet there are now nearly half a million Romanians living in the UK with the vast majority arriving after transition controls expired.
That's irrelevant; Romanians per million of population is the only sensible metric.
Of course, if you're making an international comparison. Half a million in a country of 4 million and half a million in a country of 67 million and half a million in a country of 500 million are all totally different.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Those facilities are regularly built across the country, what part of that is confusing you? 😕
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Developers are (maybe it'll soon be were) expected to contribute to community development schemes. There was a particularly odious proposal locally which objected to doing so, and said, inter alia that there was space in a primary school some 15 miles away. The scheme got short shrift from the Inspector.
So - an example of the Planning System functioning correctly to prevent inappropriate development.
Is this a problem?
No, of course not. I was supporting HYUFD's general point about adequate infrastructure.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
It's remarkable how many Eastern Europeans around here know the benefits system better than the locals do.
But they are more likely to be working and less likely to be claiming benefits than the indigenous population on average.
I have no problems with people coming over here to work, but think there should be no recourse to benefits whatsoever. Make it clean and simple, benefits for citizens nobody else, if anyone can't support themselves then they should go home and draw on their home nation's benefit system, but if they can then I have no problems with anyone who is self-sufficient coming here.
Quiz question: What proportion of the population of Ulster lives in Northern Ireland?
78%?
It's 89.4% - a figure which is surprisingly high until you find out that the 12 largest urban areas in Ulster are in Northern Ireland, with Letterkenny the largest not.
I was also wondering - who is the female in the painting? It could hardly be Countess Markievicz.
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
Although YouGov don't currently publish their probability distributions, I think I can screen-scrape that chart to get it. If so I'll add it to my occasional summary of the distributions.
It's interesting that they have Ohio as less Biden-friendly than Texas.
As I understand it, their probabilities for a Biden win, from Wisconsin all the way to Texas, range from 51% to 48%. That seems an unrealistically narrow band.
In contrast, 538 goes from 82% (WI) to 30% (TX), which intuitively seems a little closer to reality ?
I think you're looking at their projected leads, not the probabilities for each state (which they don't give, as far as I can see, although they do give the 95% confidence limits on the leads).
Is the statement regarding uninstalls true for the NHS app? Agreed it is probably going to be of limited use, given how it has panned out in other countries. The check in system looks interesting though.
I don't know, but other countries have reported download numbers and then much lower actual usage.
Adding extra features might actually help to keep the app installed and in use, because it blocks access to them if Bluetooth and Location is disabled. If we could make WhatsApp usage dependent on Exposure Notifications being enabled and working we could get everybody using the app.
It seems quite odd to me that it books one into a site and 'leaves' one there until midnight. For example I booked into the gym this morning at 7.45 and, according to the app, am still there. Actually I left about 9.30. So, if someone turns up to that gym at noon and tests positive, will I be contacted? I know we've got to give the tracers something to do, but .......
Excellent point. There should be but isn't provision for checkout qr codes.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
One thing we both criticise HYUFD and Philip on is posting things which differ from what the experts say.
Yet you are doing that same thing here, as people who understand the welfare system say things that you disagree with.
Just because someone "works in the housing department" (which could very well be rubbish, this is the internet after all), doesn't mean they are accurately representing the welfare system.
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
Although YouGov don't currently publish their probability distributions, I think I can screen-scrape that chart to get it. If so I'll add it to my occasional summary of the distributions.
It's interesting that they have Ohio as less Biden-friendly than Texas.
As I understand it, their probabilities for a Biden win, from Wisconsin all the way to Texas, range from 51% to 48%. That seems an unrealistically narrow band.
In contrast, 538 goes from 82% (WI) to 30% (TX), which intuitively seems a little closer to reality ?
I think you're looking at their projected leads, not the probabilities for each state (which they don't give, as far as I can see, although they do give the 95% confidence limits on the leads).
That seems a more reasonable explanation. (& revisiting the page, you are quite right.)
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
If you are at all uncertain, Philip, you should avoid the spreads. Even the most astute punters can be caught out. In any case you've missed the best prices and I'm not sure how much more mileage there is in them now.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
Caution is generally good advice with the spreads but just to demonstrate how bullish I am on this, I bought Biden supremacy at 28 and the quote is now 46-52, but I am not closing out a penny at this juncture despite having done a unit stake that is right at the upper end of my usual risk appetite for political betting. The sell price needs to reach 75 before I even think about taking any profit.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
1) apathy 2) Many dont have mobile phones at all or ones that can run the app* 3) Many never install apps on their mobile phone and are nervous of doing it 4) Many use their mobile as a landline replacement and dont carry it with them 5) apathy
*https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics from there only 79% have mobiles in any case by the time you knock off those with older mobiles that cant run the app you are probably getting close to the 60% figure needed for effectiveness anyway
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
So you advocate throwing "foreign women and children" out onto the street? What does "foreign" mean?
Asylum seekers will be deported if they are not genuine, and if they are genuine, they deserve a house just as much as the next person.
If there's not enough social housing that's another issue, but the fact remains that ALL women and children are prioritised as higher need then men, for example. It's not a case of foreigners being prioritised as the daily mail loves to imply.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
1) apathy 2) Many dont have mobile phones at all or ones that can run the app* 3) Many never install apps on their mobile phone and are nervous of doing it 4) Many use their mobile as a landline replacement and dont carry it with them 5) apathy
*https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics from there only 79% have mobiles in any case by the time you knock off those with older mobiles that cant run the app you are probably getting close to the 60% figure needed for effectiveness anyway
I don't see it being a binary useless/useful transition at 60% or whatever. Even if only 5% use it there is still benefit, especially with the venue check-in system.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
1) apathy 2) Many dont have mobile phones at all or ones that can run the app* 3) Many never install apps on their mobile phone and are nervous of doing it 4) Many use their mobile as a landline replacement and dont carry it with them 5) apathy
*https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics from there only 79% have mobiles in any case by the time you knock off those with older mobiles that cant run the app you are probably getting close to the 60% figure needed for effectiveness anyway
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
There is no "pot" used to pay benefits. You pay tax which the government spends. NI is just a type of tax.
In some other countries benefits are paid for using an insurance system. That is not so in the UK.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
1) apathy 2) Many dont have mobile phones at all or ones that can run the app* 3) Many never install apps on their mobile phone and are nervous of doing it 4) Many use their mobile as a landline replacement and dont carry it with them 5) apathy
*https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics from there only 79% have mobiles in any case by the time you knock off those with older mobiles that cant run the app you are probably getting close to the 60% figure needed for effectiveness anyway
I don't see it being a binary useless/useful transition at 60% or whatever. Even if only 5% use it there is still benefit, especially with the venue check-in system.
There's an ignorant "i don't want the government tracking me" view that is quite pervasive. Even if you explain that it's decentralised they don't want to hear it, and they'll go back to using the Facebook app on their phone, which actually does track you. It's farcical.
There needs to be an advertising blitz that educates people on this point IMO.
Looking at that chart it looks about as likely that Biden gets over 400 Electoral College votes as it is that Trump wins at all.
A Biden spread bet buy looks like a very good idea. I wish I had the confidence to do it, but I won't dare do spread bets.
Although YouGov don't currently publish their probability distributions, I think I can screen-scrape that chart to get it. If so I'll add it to my occasional summary of the distributions.
It's interesting that they have Ohio as less Biden-friendly than Texas.
As I understand it, their probabilities for a Biden win, from Wisconsin all the way to Texas, range from 51% to 48%. That seems an unrealistically narrow band.
In contrast, 538 goes from 82% (WI) to 30% (TX), which intuitively seems a little closer to reality ?
I think you're looking at their projected leads, not the probabilities for each state (which they don't give, as far as I can see, although they do give the 95% confidence limits on the leads).
That seems a more reasonable explanation. (& revisiting the page, you are quite right.)
I made exactly the same mistake on reading the values on the 538 'snake' chart!
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The "village" on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne where I live has had significant housing growth in the past 5 years. The size of the "village" has increased by 60%.
It was made a requirement of the planning permission for the housing developers to contribute millions to demolish the old one, and build a new first school in the "village". That's the only infrastructure that was built, and it was essentially the home owners that paid.
Elsewhere in Newcastle there's an entire new suburb built over the past 20 years (and still ongoing) called "Great Park" that has almost zero infrastructure. It's just a sea of thousands of houses. They were promised a "town centre" but it has not arrived.
Thinking all this infrastructure is going to magically arrive with even LESS regulation is for the birds.
Disagreeing slightly there. I don't see a lack of infrastructure.
Checking up on Great Park, it seems that a First School has been built, and that a community facility has been built with a 100 room hall and various other facilities, and a whole list of facilities - including 4 football pitches, floodlit tennis courts, netball, basketball etc.
Plans for schools 2000+ pupils have permission, and were held up by a Judicial Review by "wildlife campaigners". That looks like classic Packham-style after-the-fact trolling, when a considered decision has been reached through the normal process.
And there is quite significant employment land for several thousand etc, and the "town centre" is still to be built, as stated.
I can't find the numbers, but there should also be about 40 acres of open space somewhere.
But the project runs until 2030 having first been granted planning permission by of all people John Prescott back in the 2000s, and there are still 1500 houses to be constructed.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
Yes it is wierd. Many Germans do not like using Zoom, but most of them happily give away lots of their personal data for free not just via google, but via numerous apps that everyone uses.
Is the statement regarding uninstalls true for the NHS app? Agreed it is probably going to be of limited use, given how it has panned out in other countries. The check in system looks interesting though.
I don't know, but other countries have reported download numbers and then much lower actual usage.
Adding extra features might actually help to keep the app installed and in use, because it blocks access to them if Bluetooth and Location is disabled. If we could make WhatsApp usage dependent on Exposure Notifications being enabled and working we could get everybody using the app.
It seems quite odd to me that it books one into a site and 'leaves' one there until midnight. For example I booked into the gym this morning at 7.45 and, according to the app, am still there. Actually I left about 9.30. So, if someone turns up to that gym at noon and tests positive, will I be contacted? I know we've got to give the tracers something to do, but .......
Excellent point. There should be but isn't provision for checkout qr codes.
Quite. It also says that I was in the pub last night from 4.30pm until midnight, which I couldn't have been, and might suggest that either I or the landlord was breaking the law.
(For the avoidance of doubt I had one pint, a chat and a laugh with some friends and home by about 5.30.)
The "village" on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne where I live has had significant housing growth in the past 5 years. The size of the "village" has increased by 60%.
It was made a requirement of the planning permission for the housing developers to contribute millions to demolish the old one, and build a new first school in the "village". That's the only infrastructure that was built, and it was essentially the home owners that paid.
Elsewhere in Newcastle there's an entire new suburb built over the past 20 years (and still ongoing) called "Great Park" that has almost zero infrastructure. It's just a sea of thousands of houses. They were promised a "town centre" but it has not arrived.
Thinking all this infrastructure is going to magically arrive with even LESS regulation is for the birds.
At a minimum people generally want to buy things at shops, and people want to open shops where people want to buy things, so if there are loads of houses and no shops it's almost definitely because some doofus has made a rule against building shops in places where people want to buy things.
The solution is to completely disempower local doofuses, make some simple national rules about light and nuisance levels and let people build what they like.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
1) apathy 2) Many dont have mobile phones at all or ones that can run the app* 3) Many never install apps on their mobile phone and are nervous of doing it 4) Many use their mobile as a landline replacement and dont carry it with them 5) apathy
*https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics from there only 79% have mobiles in any case by the time you knock off those with older mobiles that cant run the app you are probably getting close to the 60% figure needed for effectiveness anyway
I don't see it being a binary useless/useful transition at 60% or whatever. Even if only 5% use it there is still benefit, especially with the venue check-in system.
There's an ignorant "i don't want the government tracking me" view that is quite pervasive. Even if you explain that it's decentralised they don't want to hear it, and they'll go back to using the Facebook app on their phone, which actually does track you. It's farcical.
There needs to be an advertising blitz that educates people on this point IMO.
I've been doing my part in this education campaign.
I wonder what the reason for the general unpopularity the apps are. Given how much of a big deal has been made that they are decentralized and the government can't track you, what's the aversion? Especially given the likes of Google Maps tracks your every move.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
1) apathy 2) Many dont have mobile phones at all or ones that can run the app* 3) Many never install apps on their mobile phone and are nervous of doing it 4) Many use their mobile as a landline replacement and dont carry it with them 5) apathy
*https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics from there only 79% have mobiles in any case by the time you knock off those with older mobiles that cant run the app you are probably getting close to the 60% figure needed for effectiveness anyway
I don't see it being a binary useless/useful transition at 60% or whatever. Even if only 5% use it there is still benefit, especially with the venue check-in system.
I think the figure of 60% was the one they said was needed to make it useful. If only 5% have it then the figures for if its useful are I suspect roughly chance of a user having covid x chance of a user being near another user having covid so (0.05 x covid infection rate) x 0.05 for number of users that they will have had contact with
The "village" on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne where I live has had significant housing growth in the past 5 years. The size of the "village" has increased by 60%.
It was made a requirement of the planning permission for the housing developers to contribute millions to demolish the old one, and build a new first school in the "village". That's the only infrastructure that was built, and it was essentially the home owners that paid.
Elsewhere in Newcastle there's an entire new suburb built over the past 20 years (and still ongoing) called "Great Park" that has almost zero infrastructure. It's just a sea of thousands of houses. They were promised a "town centre" but it has not arrived.
Thinking all this infrastructure is going to magically arrive with even LESS regulation is for the birds.
Disagreeing slightly there. I don't see a lack of infrastructure.
Checking up on Great Park, it seems that a First School has been built, and that a community facility has been built with a 100 room hall and various other facilities, and a whole list of facilities - including 4 football pitches, floodlit tennis courts, netball, basketball etc.
Plans for schools 2000+ pupils have permission, and were held up by a Judicial Review by "wildlife campaigners". That looks like classic Packham-style trolling.
And there is quite significant employment land for several thousandetc, and the "town centre" is still to be built, as stated.
But the project runs until 2030, and there are still 1500 houses to be constructed.
Please note that I did say "almost zero" infrastructure. I'm aware of the schools and the community facilities - I've been to them, although they are already falling apart.
And aspects of the "town centre" has been built, however whoever the developer has palmed off the freehold too is trying to charge such a high rent that the units are just sitting empty. It's a constant source of frustration for the residents who are always whinging in the local paper.
My original point was that it's hard enough building significant infrastructure with the current system that gives LAs some control over it. Taking it away, in my opinion, is not going to lead to significantly *more* infrastructure.
SAGE built a custom headquarters there, but they have now moved out, so that building is now sitting empty and because it was custom made its harder to lease to somebody else.
I suspect the Trumpian tax revelations will do no harm at all to his existing base. Many Americans seem to resent paying even 1¢ in tax. The more rabid right-wingers, Qanon brigade, etc, etc, will probably admire a man who foxed the system to the point he managed to pay no tax at all.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
But you must you are a dedicated member of the party responsible for the outcome, you will go on the doorsteps praising the outcome whatever that may be. Every single Tory member and many of their voters bear full responsibility for the outcomes of the dual crisis that the UK faces.
I have recanted my leave vote if not the reasons for doing so. This is not a crisis caused by leaving the EU - the question on the ballot paper. The democratic mandate was to leave the EU because that was the question asked.
HYUFD's problem is that he mistakes his interpretation of the best interests of the Conservative Party as being the best interests of the UK. If the Tories had polling showing that red wall Tories wanted to kill the first born male child in every household he'd be on here insisting that it had to happen.
The political choices made by the Tories after the referendum are the cataclysm which ultimately will destroy them. You cannot continue as a Conservative and Unionist Party when you choose a policy that destroys the economy and our standing in the world and the union. Lets be honest about this - Brexit is just their excuse to do so. Shagger isn't even a leaver...
However what the red wall voters want only matters if it doesn't impact him. For example the building of thousands of new homes in Epping? God no.
I support the building of needed new homes in Epping with appropriate infrastructure and in brownbelt areas as much as possible
"With appropriate infrastructure" has been the cry of the NIMBY for all of recorded time. New housing is never built with the appropriate infrastructure.
Of course it is and a new school, sports centre, cinema, retail and parking facilities are all part of the Epping Local Plan
Yeah good luck with that. Who's paying for a start?
Those facilities are regularly built across the country, what part of that is confusing you? 😕
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Why should I pay for building infrastructure to allow a private company to make a huge profit?
If a school is built it is built to enable children to go to school, not to enable businesses to make a huge profit. The children will have to go to school somewhere, plus their parents should be paying taxes too.
Developers are (maybe it'll soon be were) expected to contribute to community development schemes. There was a particularly odious proposal locally which objected to doing so, and said, inter alia that there was space in a primary school some 15 miles away. The scheme got short shrift from the Inspector.
Building schools is the (local) government's job, and you can't expect them to build schools for people living in houses that don't exist yet. Let people build the houses, and if there are enough kids then build the schools.
The "village" on the edge of Newcastle upon Tyne where I live has had significant housing growth in the past 5 years. The size of the "village" has increased by 60%.
It was made a requirement of the planning permission for the housing developers to contribute millions to demolish the old one, and build a new first school in the "village". That's the only infrastructure that was built, and it was essentially the home owners that paid.
Elsewhere in Newcastle there's an entire new suburb built over the past 20 years (and still ongoing) called "Great Park" that has almost zero infrastructure. It's just a sea of thousands of houses. They were promised a "town centre" but it has not arrived.
Thinking all this infrastructure is going to magically arrive with even LESS regulation is for the birds.
Disagreeing slightly there. I don't see a lack of infrastructure.
Checking up on Great Park, it seems that a First School has been built, and that a community facility has been built with a 100 room hall and various other facilities, and a whole list of facilities - including 4 football pitches, floodlit tennis courts, netball, basketball etc.
Plans for schools 2000+ pupils have permission, and were held up by a Judicial Review by "wildlife campaigners". That looks like classic Packham-style trolling.
And there is quite significant employment land for several thousandetc, and the "town centre" is still to be built, as stated.
But the project runs until 2030, and there are still 1500 houses to be constructed.
Please note that I did say "almost zero" infrastructure. I'm aware of the schools and the community facilities - I've been to them, although they are already falling apart.
And aspects of the "town centre" has been built, however whoever the developer has palmed off the freehold too is trying to charge such a high rent that the units are just sitting empty. It's a constant source of frustration for the residents who are always whinging in the local paper.
My original point was that it's hard enough building significant infrastructure with the current system that gives LAs some control over it. Taking it away, in my opinion, is not going to lead to significantly *more* infrastructure.
SAGE built a custom headquarters there, but they have now moved out, so that building is now sitting empty and because it was custom made its harder to lease to somebody else.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
There is no "pot" used to pay benefits. You pay tax which the government spends. NI is just a type of tax.
In some other countries benefits are paid for using an insurance system. That is not so in the UK.
I know that.
My point was that those that have paid tax for years should get priority over housing compared to those that turned up yesterday.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
Locals on council estates permanently on benefits haven't been paying into a "pot" at all. I would suspect if you add up all the taxes etc of working immigrants v local benefit people it would be obvious.
On benefits, the issue isn't unemployment benefit it's all of the highly generous in working benefits that people become eligible for after working 16h per week for three months. Housing benefit, working tax credit and child tax credits are all a disaster zone which disincentivise work and form the basis of why low paid workers from Eastern Europe find the UK such an attractive place to come.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
There is no "pot" used to pay benefits. You pay tax which the government spends. NI is just a type of tax.
In some other countries benefits are paid for using an insurance system. That is not so in the UK.
I know that.
My point was that those that have paid tax for years should get priority over housing compared to those that turned up yesterday.
Do you want to live in a town that has mothers and children begging on the street?
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
So you advocate throwing "foreign women and children" out onto the street? What does "foreign" mean?
Asylum seekers will be deported if they are not genuine, and if they are genuine, they deserve a house just as much as the next person.
If there's not enough social housing that's another issue, but the fact remains that ALL women and children are prioritised as higher need then men, for example. It's not a case of foreigners being prioritised as the daily mail loves to imply.
Foreign means coming from a different country.
I've already told you that foreign people are prioritised. For example the Northern council my missus worked for used a points system to see who got housing. Extra points were awarded for not speaking English, being non-white and not having any family nearby.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
There is no "pot" used to pay benefits. You pay tax which the government spends. NI is just a type of tax.
In some other countries benefits are paid for using an insurance system. That is not so in the UK.
I know that.
My point was that those that have paid tax for years should get priority over housing compared to those that turned up yesterday.
Do you want to live in a town that has mothers and children begging on the street?
Tbh, if we had a contributory benefits system that needed 12 months of contributions to become eligible they wouldn't come in the first place. In Switzerland that's actually what happens in practice. Our benefits system and attachment to the welfare state is at fault.
People haven't accepted that Brexit means the UK being a client of the EU across the areas that agreement covers. This reluctance to accept reality has included Remainers as well as Leavers. Right now the decision is between minimal agreement and no agreement on anything to ensure no client status applies. No-one voted Leave to be controlled. Eventually we will probably agree to quite a lot on EU terms because it's better to have agreement than have no agreement when agreement is possible. That can be seen to be a "close relationship", albeit as a client.
Given the 52% to 48% result was pretty close anyway an EFTA style relationship is probably the likely long term outcome of our relationship with the EU, however that would require a Sunak or Starmer premiership rather than a Boris premiership in all likelihood to get there
I agree. But the EFTA style relationship won't be a comfortable one for a UK (if it still exists) with a well developed sense of self-importance.
Britain is not a superpower like the US, China and increasingly India and should not act like one however it is a medium sized power alongside France, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Russia and still has a role to play as a G7, G20, NATO and UN Security Council member
Britain's superpower status (pre 1950s) derived from the fact it could call upon reflexive loyalty of Canada, NZ, Australia and South Africa, and leverage manpower from India - and to a lesser extent East Africa. This allowed it to play at least a 30-40% partner role with the USA, as opposed to the 10% partner role we play today.
If that existed today, the UK would more than double the weight of its army and navy with the "Dominions". Still not a superpower but comfortably exceeding any other Western power, except the USA. If you added India/Africa on top - with their huge manpower - you'd then have a quasi-superpower, provided you had the logistical and staff capabilities to leverage it.
Without any of that we are just a leading European military with blue-water deployment capability.
Sounds about right but I'd love to see you present that one over a few pints in the pubs and clubs of Leave Nation.
"There's nothing special about us. We're not some massive power these days. That's all gone FFS so stop getting all hoarse and misty-eyed about it. We're just a leading European military with blue-water deployment capability."
You'll need to be buying otherwise there might be fisticuffs.
Your first sentence is redundant and unnecessarily confrontation which may be why you'd be expecting upset. Otherwise its pretty uncontroversial.
But the first sentence is key. The belief that we are a little bit special is at the heart of Brexit and of much of what has gone wrong with our Covid response.
I suspect the Trumpian tax revelations will do no harm at all to his existing base. Many Americans seem to resent paying even 1¢ in tax. The more rabid right-wingers, Qanon brigade, etc, etc, will probably admire a man who foxed the system to the point he managed to pay no tax at all.
With that voter base, it probably a plus
It takes quite a suspension of logic to applaud someone sticking it to The Man when that someone is in fact the executive embodiment of The Man. Unfortunately these people are perfectly capable of suspending logic in this and other areas.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
Locals on council estates permanently on benefits having been paying into a "pot" at all. I would suspect if you add up all the taxes etc of working immigrants v local benefit people it would be obvious.
It is not all or nothing though.
We have some free riders born in this country, that is true. We have hard working people born in this country, that is also true.
We have hard working migrants in this country, that is true. We have some free riders migrating into this country, that is also true.
There is no reason we can't do what most of the world does which is allow in hard working migrants while denying benefits and free riding to the minority who want to exploit the system. What is wrong with that?
Just because a minority do the wrong thing is no reason to tarnish the majority who do not. Just because most people do the right thing is no reason not to try to stop the minority who exploit the system.
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
There is no "pot" used to pay benefits. You pay tax which the government spends. NI is just a type of tax.
In some other countries benefits are paid for using an insurance system. That is not so in the UK.
I know that.
My point was that those that have paid tax for years should get priority over housing compared to those that turned up yesterday.
Do you want to live in a town that has mothers and children begging on the street?
Tbh, if we had a contributory benefits system that needed 12 months of contributions to become eligible they wouldn't come in the first place.
It would be better but I would expect a large amount of squealing if we changed it
Whilst its fascinating to see @HYUFD waxing lyrical about the joys of free trade and EFTA his wing of his party have delusionally told us that EFTA/EEA and EU are the same thing. So we can't possibly be EEA members as that makes us a "vassal state".
It will be entertaining to watch the about face as the realities of the giant shit sandwich they are now handing to leave supporters are understood. You see that EFTA - that one we demonised. Thats a really good outcome for us that it. And having to accept rules made by the EU that EFTA have no say in is absolutely not us being rule takers, and is definitely better than making those rules as we used to do.
I mean yes absolutely and I appreciate you have recanted but between you and @HYUFD, only one of you had the foresight at the time to realise what a shitshow this would be and one didn't.
You are correct in that if I recall Rochdale voted Leave while I voted Remain, now I am a democrat and accepted the result but on polling day 2016 it was me who voted Remain in the Referendum, it was Rochdale who voted Leave so I am not going to take lectures from him about being responsible for all the consequences of Brexit
*giggles*. I voted to leave the EU. As I keep pointing out the EEA is not the EU. As you keep pointing out "naah I don't care about anything that isn't my perceived interests of the Conservative Party and if that brings millions to ruin they voted for it".
Leaving the EU is not our problem. Leaving the EEA and CU are our problems. We could have delivered the referendum, rejoined EFTA and by now be a sizeable non-EU player in the EEA forcing them to open up trade. Instead, narrow minded partisan fools like your good self have literally cheered on this fiasco. "Its all about stopping migration". So stop migration then - as we always could. Under the existing EU/EEA rules. No job, no right to remain.
Of course had Blair imposed transition controls on free movement from the new accession countries for 7 years from 2007 as Germany did for instance much of the resentment over uncontrolled immigration would never have arrived in the first place
Or if Blair / Cameron heck even Boris had moved our welfare system to something that required contributions prior to payment...
Yes the current system where someone can appear penniless from another country with children, get free healthcare and benefits and go straight to the top of the housing list because they have the greatest need is complete madness.
That's also Daily Mail bollocks and completely untrue.
My missus who worked in the housing department in a small Northern town can confirm first hand it is actually true.
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
Well they aren't facts, so there's that.
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The people being housed were not from the EU, some were asylum seekers and some were not.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing. What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
There is no "pot" used to pay benefits. You pay tax which the government spends. NI is just a type of tax.
In some other countries benefits are paid for using an insurance system. That is not so in the UK.
I know that.
My point was that those that have paid tax for years should get priority over housing compared to those that turned up yesterday.
Do you want to live in a town that has mothers and children begging on the street?
Lol sure the only choice is to give them all the government housing rather than stopping them coming here in the first place and deporting those that manage to turn up.
I suspect the Trumpian tax revelations will do no harm at all to his existing base. Many Americans seem to resent paying even 1¢ in tax. The more rabid right-wingers, Qanon brigade, etc, etc, will probably admire a man who foxed the system to the point he managed to pay no tax at all.
With that voter base, it probably a plus
Yeah. But they are all already voting for him, aren't they?
People haven't accepted that Brexit means the UK being a client of the EU across the areas that agreement covers. This reluctance to accept reality has included Remainers as well as Leavers. Right now the decision is between minimal agreement and no agreement on anything to ensure no client status applies. No-one voted Leave to be controlled. Eventually we will probably agree to quite a lot on EU terms because it's better to have agreement than have no agreement when agreement is possible. That can be seen to be a "close relationship", albeit as a client.
Given the 52% to 48% result was pretty close anyway an EFTA style relationship is probably the likely long term outcome of our relationship with the EU, however that would require a Sunak or Starmer premiership rather than a Boris premiership in all likelihood to get there
I agree. But the EFTA style relationship won't be a comfortable one for a UK (if it still exists) with a well developed sense of self-importance.
Britain is not a superpower like the US, China and increasingly India and should not act like one however it is a medium sized power alongside France, Germany, Japan, Brazil and Russia and still has a role to play as a G7, G20, NATO and UN Security Council member
Britain's superpower status (pre 1950s) derived from the fact it could call upon reflexive loyalty of Canada, NZ, Australia and South Africa, and leverage manpower from India - and to a lesser extent East Africa. This allowed it to play at least a 30-40% partner role with the USA, as opposed to the 10% partner role we play today.
If that existed today, the UK would more than double the weight of its army and navy with the "Dominions". Still not a superpower but comfortably exceeding any other Western power, except the USA. If you added India/Africa on top - with their huge manpower - you'd then have a quasi-superpower, provided you had the logistical and staff capabilities to leverage it.
Without any of that we are just a leading European military with blue-water deployment capability.
Sounds about right but I'd love to see you present that one over a few pints in the pubs and clubs of Leave Nation.
"There's nothing special about us. We're not some massive power these days. That's all gone FFS so stop getting all hoarse and misty-eyed about it. We're just a leading European military with blue-water deployment capability."
You'll need to be buying otherwise there might be fisticuffs.
Your first sentence is redundant and unnecessarily confrontation which may be why you'd be expecting upset. Otherwise its pretty uncontroversial.
But the first sentence is key. The belief that we are a little bit special is at the heart of Brexit and of much of what has gone wrong with our Covid response.
But we are special.
Every country is special it its own way. We are not just some utilitarian cog that is interchangeable.
Comments
It's interesting that they have Ohio as less Biden-friendly than Texas.
In all likelihood these sort of apps are not going to make much difference to the outcome of the pandemic.
That said the addition of the venue check-in feature, symptoms checker, risk checker, and links to advice do make the app quite useful even if proximity detection doesn't end up moving the needle much.
Plus of course imposing controls would have seen the migration still eventually arrive, it wouldn't have prevented it. We imposed migration controls on Romania, yet there are now nearly half a million Romanians living in the UK with the vast majority arriving after transition controls expired.
To win big on Biden spreads now he is going to have to take Texas and I think that is unlikely. On the other hand, Ohio is looking good (but carries far fewer ECVs).
https://today.yougov.com/2020-presidential-election
Settling the Ugandan Asian exiles in 1972 wasn't without it's difficulties and were only about 30,000 of them
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54284095
https://www.thelocal.com/20200909/do-any-of-europes-coronavirus-phone-apps-actually-work
even germany where people listen to their government has only got in on 17.8 million phones for a population of 83 million just barely getting past that 20% I suggested
As I see it it's a touch more political. Sadiq took large amounts of money from Taxi Driver organisations for his campaign, and made public promises to go for Uber.
Then a few weeks after he was elected, TFL went for Uber.
Then Sadiq turned into Pontius Pilate and said "nothing to do with me, Guv".
Then Sadiq sorry TFL (nothing to do with Sadiq, of course) got spanked in Court for a lot of the stuff they had tried to do.
And so it has gone on since.
And Sadiq sorry TFL just got spanked again. Nothing to do with Sadiq, remember.
I'd say he's still wallowing around in a dodgy political swamp of his own creation.
Councils, businesses and central government all have a role to play in paying for these facilities.
Adding extra features might actually help to keep the app installed and in use, because it blocks access to them if Bluetooth and Location is disabled. If we could make WhatsApp usage dependent on Exposure Notifications being enabled and working we could get everybody using the app.
It was made a requirement of the planning permission for the housing developers to contribute millions to demolish the old one, and build a new first school in the "village". That's the only infrastructure that was built, and it was essentially the home owners that paid.
Elsewhere in Newcastle there's an entire new suburb built over the past 20 years (and still ongoing) called "Great Park" that has almost zero infrastructure. It's just a sea of thousands of houses. They were promised a "town centre" but it has not arrived.
Thinking all this infrastructure is going to magically arrive with even LESS regulation is for the birds.
The scheme got short shrift from the Inspector.
https://artuk.org/discover/artworks/edith-vane-tempest-stewart-18781959-the-marchioness-of-londonderry-dbe-6534
But of course anyone stating facts these days must have got it from the Daily Mail.
https://bnonews.com/index.php/2020/08/covid-19-reinfection-tracker/
Is this a problem?
EU citizens who come here without a job are not simply entitled to benefits automatically. That's not how it works.
On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing? What is the alternative, throwing them out on the street?
Anyway we're out of the EU now. I'm sure the situation will improve. Spoiler: it won't.
The UK can contribute a Spitfire for the memorial flyover when they lose.
According to the National [woke] Trust it was her mother in law, the preceding Marchioness of Londonderry, who played an important role in the Ulster Covenant.
But the younger did marry into the family in enough time to have been involved too, I have no doubt.
Yet you are doing that same thing here, as people who understand the welfare system say things that you disagree with.
In contrast, 538 goes from 82% (WI) to 30% (TX), which intuitively seems a little closer to reality ?
I know we've got to give the tracers something to do, but .......
Edit: Sorry - getting generatyions muddled.
It isn't as if any Western government has suggested implemented a South Korean style spying approach.
"On a separate note, are you suggesting that women with children should not be prioritised for housing?"
Not foreign women with children no, it creates endless demand and the locals will get nothing.
What's the point of paying into a pot for years and never be able to receive one of the most basic services?
(rather fine painting I think)
(& revisiting the page, you are quite right.)
2) Many dont have mobile phones at all or ones that can run the app*
3) Many never install apps on their mobile phone and are nervous of doing it
4) Many use their mobile as a landline replacement and dont carry it with them
5) apathy
*https://www.finder.com/uk/mobile-internet-statistics from there only 79% have mobiles in any case by the time you knock off those with older mobiles that cant run the app you are probably getting close to the 60% figure needed for effectiveness anyway
Asylum seekers will be deported if they are not genuine, and if they are genuine, they deserve a house just as much as the next person.
If there's not enough social housing that's another issue, but the fact remains that ALL women and children are prioritised as higher need then men, for example. It's not a case of foreigners being prioritised as the daily mail loves to imply.
You pay tax which the government spends.
NI is just a type of tax.
In some other countries benefits are paid for using an insurance system. That is not so in the UK.
There needs to be an advertising blitz that educates people on this point IMO.
Checking up on Great Park, it seems that a First School has been built, and that a community facility has been built with a 100 room hall and various other facilities, and a whole list of facilities - including 4 football pitches, floodlit tennis courts, netball, basketball etc.
Plans for schools 2000+ pupils have permission, and were held up by a Judicial Review by "wildlife campaigners". That looks like classic Packham-style after-the-fact trolling, when a considered decision has been reached through the normal process.
And there is quite significant employment land for several thousand etc, and the "town centre" is still to be built, as stated.
I can't find the numbers, but there should also be about 40 acres of open space somewhere.
But the project runs until 2030 having first been granted planning permission by of all people John Prescott back in the 2000s, and there are still 1500 houses to be constructed.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Newcastle_Great_Park
(For the avoidance of doubt I had one pint, a chat and a laugh with some friends and home by about 5.30.)
The solution is to completely disempower local doofuses, make some simple national rules about light and nuisance levels and let people build what they like.
Iceland is the country that seems to have best uptake at 40% and they report it not being a game changer even at that level
https://www.technologyreview.com/2020/05/11/1001541/iceland-rakning-c19-covid-contact-tracing/
And aspects of the "town centre" has been built, however whoever the developer has palmed off the freehold too is trying to charge such a high rent that the units are just sitting empty. It's a constant source of frustration for the residents who are always whinging in the local paper.
My original point was that it's hard enough building significant infrastructure with the current system that gives LAs some control over it. Taking it away, in my opinion, is not going to lead to significantly *more* infrastructure.
SAGE built a custom headquarters there, but they have now moved out, so that building is now sitting empty and because it was custom made its harder to lease to somebody else.
I suspect the Trumpian tax revelations will do no harm at all to his existing base. Many Americans seem to resent paying even 1¢ in tax. The more rabid right-wingers, Qanon brigade, etc, etc, will probably admire a man who foxed the system to the point he managed to pay no tax at all.
With that voter base, it probably a plus
My point was that those that have paid tax for years should get priority over housing compared to those that turned up yesterday.
I've already told you that foreign people are prioritised. For example the Northern council my missus worked for used a points system to see who got housing. Extra points were awarded for not speaking English, being non-white and not having any family nearby.
We have some free riders born in this country, that is true.
We have hard working people born in this country, that is also true.
We have hard working migrants in this country, that is true.
We have some free riders migrating into this country, that is also true.
There is no reason we can't do what most of the world does which is allow in hard working migrants while denying benefits and free riding to the minority who want to exploit the system. What is wrong with that?
Just because a minority do the wrong thing is no reason to tarnish the majority who do not.
Just because most people do the right thing is no reason not to try to stop the minority who exploit the system.
Every country is special it its own way. We are not just some utilitarian cog that is interchangeable.